The Argument for Taiwan Jones… Sort of…
Here’s what we know about Taiwan Jones right now: He’s been buried on the Raiders depth chart behind Darren McFadden, Mike Goodson, and apparently even Marcel Reece. He has one fumble on 17 career carries. Jones ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the 2011 Combine. He averaged almost eight yards per carry at Eastern Washington (I didn’t check, but I’m pretty sure they didn’t play Alabama at all). Marcel Reece will handle most of the work on passing downs.
To me, the only thing that matters out of the above facts is Jones’ 40 time. I can dismiss the rest of it for a guy that only cost you a waiver claim, and has the potential to provide outsized benefits. Before you get too excited, I would say that you shouldn’t be starting Jones this week and you might toss him back to the waiver wire if you need that roster spot next week. I’m not saying that I think it’s likely that Jones becomes a stud tomorrow, I’m only going to argue that the kind of stud that he could become (if he becomes one) would be extremely valuable, and that value would be related to Jones’ speed.
My basic argument is that Jones fits into the mold of the smaller, faster running backs that coaches tend not to trust right away. I think he fits into the Jamaal Charles/C.J. Spiller/Chris Johnson mold. I’m not saying that he’ll have the same kind of career that those running backs have had, as there are always going to be areas where they differ and those areas might be extremely important. I’m just saying that he’s similar enough for us to pay attention. Let’s look at Jones’ weight and 40 time compared to the backs I’m comparing him to.
Player Weight 40 Time
CJ Spiller 196 4.27
Jamaal Charles 200 4.38
Chris Johnson 191 4.24
Taiwan Jones 195 4.33
Player Y/C
CJ Spiller 5.4
Jamaal Charles 5.8
Chris Johnson 4.8
Taiwan Jones 4.4*
The fact that Jones has been buried on the depth chart is important for his fantasy football value. But it doesn’t necessarily indicate that much about his talent. With the exception of Chris Johnson, all of the running backs on that list had a difficult time gaining the trust of the coaching staff. During the 2009 season, the Chiefs coaching staff only gave 2nd year running back Jamaal Charles a chance when Larry Johnson was suspended. This was despite the fact that LJ had averaged less than three yards per carry through the first seven weeks of the season. The Chiefs coaching staff kept a guy on the bench (and that guy would become one of the best running backs in the league), so they could play the extremely washed up Larry Johnson. A discussion of Charles’ fantasy outlook in November of 2009 probably would have focused on how the coaching staff didn’t trust him. In fact, most of the objections to the idea that Taiwan Jones could be good, would have also been applied to Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs offensive line would not have looked very good before Charles began ripping off runs for almost six yards per carry. Charles had also been fumble prone and in fact has never really improved his ball security.
I’m not saying that it doesn’t matter at all that Taiwan Jones is apparently fumble prone or that the coaches don’t trust him. It is after all worth noting that Chris Johnson is easily the least fumble prone back on my list of small/fast guys and he is the only one out of the group to ever top 300 carries in a season. But I am saying that being fumble prone and not having the trust of the coaches probably matters less than we might think. Ball security can improve for young running backs and sometimes coaching staffs are eventually forced to play these fast guys (both Spiller and Charles got their biggest opportunities when the coaching staffs had no other choice). To me this is a “signal vs. noise” issue. Out of the factors that could affect whether Jamaal Charles could become a stud running back, the trust of the coaching staff and his fumbling problems turned out to be noise, while his sprinter speed turned out to be the signal that could foretell his fantasy future.
You shouldn’t be starting Jones unless he’s your only option, because at this point we really have no idea what the carry split with Marcel Reese will be. But pay attention on Sunday because if Jones does get an opportunity, I think his ceiling is extremely high. At a minimum, you should make sure that if he is available in your league, that you pick him up before Sunday’s game. If Jones finishes the game with something like 12 carries for 90 yards, then you should pay attention to next week’s practice reports. If Jones fumbles his first carry and never sees the field after that, it’s probably safe to drop him on Tuesday.