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TE Darren Waller, MIA (1 Viewer)

CGRdrJoe said:
sho nuff said:
Packers offered them a 2nd before the trade deadline and they turned it down.
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true but also not true. they offered the second before the november trade deadline, so it’s not like they did this in the past few weeks.

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Thats what I meant as far as the trade deadline. Sorry if I was not more clear. Just the contrast of turning down the second. And then getting less now.
 
sho nuff said:
CGRdrJoe said:
sho nuff said:
Packers offered them a 2nd before the trade deadline and they turned it down.
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true but also not true. they offered the second before the november trade deadline, so it’s not like they did this in the past few weeks.

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Thats what I meant as far as the trade deadline. Sorry if I was not more clear. Just the contrast of turning down the second. And then getting less now.
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to be fair we got a few more games out of him before he broke down again
 
Footballguys Reaction - What Waller To The Giants Means

In a year when most view the free agent market as below average, the most significant moves have come via the trade. First, we had D.J. Moore to the Bears, and now, Darren Waller is on his way to the New York Giants. Just hours after the Raiders acquired Jakobi Meyers, they sent another of their playmakers packing. So let's see how this move will shake out for both teams in fantasy football.

See why the big moves matter with our Instant Reactions >>>

Trade Terms​

The Giants gave up a third-round pick, the 100th overall, for Waller. This pick happens to be the one they acquired in their trade of Kadarius Toney. So, for New York, it was Waller for Toney.

Fantasy Impact​

Outside of Saquon Barkley, there is questionable talent at critical positions for the Giants. However, a healthy Darren Waller solves some of those issues. Last season, Waller only appeared in nine games. He finished with 43 targets that he turned into 28 catches, 388 yards, and three touchdowns. While the overall numbers are far from great, a tight end with a 65% catch rate and 13.9 yards per catch has undeniable potential. We've seen Waller as a top-five tight end in fantasy football, and there is hope he ends up there again.

See why the big moves matter with our Instant Reactions >>>

While the Giants only targeted the entire tight end position 61 times last season, that is an indictment of the talent they had at the position. Rookie Daniel Bellinger led the group with just 35 targets while appearing in 12 games. He flashed some talent but was still raw. A few years playing behind a 30-year-old Waller should be great for his development.

With close to 200 vacated targets, depending on what they do at wide receiver, it is very likely that Waller will see his usual 5-6 targets per game as the team's best pass catcher. That volume translates to 85-100 targets on the season, plenty enough to be a top fantasy option.

There is good and bad in this signing for the other Giants. Daniel Jones desperately needs weapons. A player like Waller, who can operate close to his quarterback, should be an excellent option for Jones, coming off his most efficient season as a pro. On the other hand, Saquon Barkley should be unaffected. He is the best player on this team and will remain so with Waller.

Wan'Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins are the top receivers on this team right now. As such, early projections likely had them with a hefty target share. Waller will bring that back down to earth and slot them in as third and fourth options, both in fantasy and real life.

Fantasy Fallout​

It's anyone's guess as to what the Raiders' plan is right now. With the additions of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers to the established Davante Adams and Waller, it looked as if Josh McDaniels had a solid core to build his offense. Instead, Waller is gone, and last year's backup, Foster Moreau, is also a free agent. This trade opens up target share for Meyers and might bring Hunter Renfrow back into the fold, but overall, this doesn't feel great for Garoppolo and this offense.

Stock Watch​

It's been a roller coaster for Darren Waller's stock. First, when they added Garoppolo, he rose in value. Then, when they brought in Jakobi Meyers, Waller took a dip. Now, the trade to New York makes him, for at the least the time being, his team's No. 1 receiving option again. If New York does not make a splash at wide receiver, Waller could work his way back into the top-five tight end conversation.
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I've had it in my mind that he's going to be a target hog in NY.

They were 2nd from bottom NFL in Target share to TE (13%) but I'm guessing that changes. They paid a 3rd rounder for him- that's nothing to sneeze at. When you look at their pass catchers, this room looks like the other rooms where the TE is the alpha. I'm not suggesting he's Kelce or Andrews but two years ago he was being targeted right in the same ADP range. He's 30 but could still put together 2-3 seasons of being a top 6 guy and I personally wouldn't be stunned if he finishes top 4, just due to the lack of elite target competition in NY.

I think the Giants saw him as an the best available upgrade to their WR1 position.

OTOH, Giants are absolutely cursed when it comes to pass catcher health so getting a guy that's been prone to getting banged up seems like destiny calling. LC seems like he has a possible bingo there.
 
I saw his name in the subject line and just figured he was hurt again. 😯
Playing on that Met Life turf, its just a matter of time.
Buy low on Bellinger.
 
steelcityman said:
I saw his name in the subject line and just figured he was hurt again. 😯
Playing on that Met Life turf, its just a matter of time.
Buy low on Bellinger.
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www.espn.com

MetLife gets new turf after widespread criticism

A new playing surface has been installed at MetLife Stadium, where the previous turf had become an object of widespread criticism in recent years.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

"A new playing surface has been installed at MetLife Stadium, where the previous turf had become an object of widespread criticism in recent years.

While not grass, the new surface is believed to be an improved synthetic turf that will decrease the number of injuries that occur at the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets...."

One can only hope. bring back the grass.
 
kodycutter said:
steelcityman said:
I saw his name in the subject line and just figured he was hurt again. 😯
Playing on that Met Life turf, its just a matter of time.
Buy low on Bellinger.
Click to expand...

www.espn.com

MetLife gets new turf after widespread criticism

A new playing surface has been installed at MetLife Stadium, where the previous turf had become an object of widespread criticism in recent years.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

"A new playing surface has been installed at MetLife Stadium, where the previous turf had become an object of widespread criticism in recent years.

While not grass, the new surface is believed to be an improved synthetic turf that will decrease the number of injuries that occur at the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets...."

One can only hope. bring back the grass.
Click to expand...
I've seen a couple other stadiums install this. Feedback from the players has been very positive. Anything that can help your guys stay healthy is good.
 

The Athletic's Dan Duggan writes: "Assuming health, it would be shocking if [Darren] Waller doesn’t lead the team in targets this season."​

The drumbeat of the Giants early offseason has leaned heavily towards columns about Waller, and if that wasn't overt enough for you, here's a beat reporter out-and-out saying that Waller will be the target leader. Duggan points to Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka having experience in offenses with the tight end as a No. 1 option in New England and Kansas City, respectively. Saquon Barkley led the Giants with 76 targets last year.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Jun 6, 2023, 2:04 PM ET
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TE value frequently comes down to TD's.

Daniel Jones career TD rate is 3.4%. The best he ever posted was his rookie season at 5.2%. Which means in the 3 years since, it's been 2.8%.

If the Giants throw it 600 times this season, that equates to 17 TD's. They threw it 520 in 2022.

Can Jones be better? Yes.
Can Waller add significant value to this passing attack? Yes.

But you better believe in Daniel Jones ability to take the next step in his career if you take Waller because it feels like 800/6 is the ceiling here. That doesn't suck, but because he's a high-profile acquisition in NY...he's going to be an August ADP riser. And the difference between 800/6 and 600/4 is high draft capital vs WW.
 
He was a late bloomer and already peaked. I believe he’s on the other side of the mountain now and headed south. He will be 31 in September and has had injuries recently.
 
TheDirtyWord said:
TE value frequently comes down to TD's.

Daniel Jones career TD rate is 3.4%. The best he ever posted was his rookie season at 5.2%. Which means in the 3 years since, it's been 2.8%.

If the Giants throw it 600 times this season, that equates to 17 TD's. They threw it 520 in 2022.

Can Jones be better? Yes.
Can Waller add significant value to this passing attack? Yes.

But you better believe in Daniel Jones ability to take the next step in his career if you take Waller because it feels like 800/6 is the ceiling here. That doesn't suck, but because he's a high-profile acquisition in NY...he's going to be an August ADP riser. And the difference between 800/6 and 600/4 is high draft capital vs WW.
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On the flip side, Waller is the most talented pass catcher (BY FAR) that Jones has ever had. I think an efficiency boost is a reasonable expectation for Jones with Waller and possibly better WRs (Slayton and Shepard might be #4-5 guys as opposed to starters) this season.

800-6 is a fair expectation in my opinion, and its possible Waller takes a huge target share and sees something like 130 targets, which would still only be 25% assuming that Jones has basically the same amount of attempts.

I think Waller is being underrated. He's still looked like a good player when he's been healthy, he's just been out a lot. I'd be worried if he'd sucked when he was playing, but he's been on an 80-1000-5 pace the last 2 seasons in games he actually played, and some of that was playing clear 2nd fiddle to Davante Adams.
 
travdogg said:
TheDirtyWord said:
TE value frequently comes down to TD's.

Daniel Jones career TD rate is 3.4%. The best he ever posted was his rookie season at 5.2%. Which means in the 3 years since, it's been 2.8%.

If the Giants throw it 600 times this season, that equates to 17 TD's. They threw it 520 in 2022.

Can Jones be better? Yes.
Can Waller add significant value to this passing attack? Yes.

But you better believe in Daniel Jones ability to take the next step in his career if you take Waller because it feels like 800/6 is the ceiling here. That doesn't suck, but because he's a high-profile acquisition in NY...he's going to be an August ADP riser. And the difference between 800/6 and 600/4 is high draft capital vs WW.
Click to expand...
On the flip side, Waller is the most talented pass catcher (BY FAR) that Jones has ever had. I think an efficiency boost is a reasonable expectation for Jones with Waller and possibly better WRs (Slayton and Shepard might be #4-5 guys as opposed to starters) this season.

800-6 is a fair expectation in my opinion, and its possible Waller takes a huge target share and sees something like 130 targets, which would still only be 25% assuming that Jones has basically the same amount of attempts.

I think Waller is being underrated. He's still looked like a good player when he's been healthy, he's just been out a lot. I'd be worried if he'd sucked when he was playing, but he's been on an 80-1000-5 pace the last 2 seasons in games he actually played, and some of that was playing clear 2nd fiddle to Davante Adams.
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Much like my critique with Pitts...Waller is a fine player, but the situation he now finds himself is simply not advantageous for him to overachieve.

The question, if we're in agreement on 800/6, is how much of a premium are you willing to pay for those production levels at TE when the ceiling feels not much higher?
 
JohnnyU said:
He was a late bloomer and already peaked. I believe he’s on the other side of the mountain now and headed south. He will be 31 in September and has had injuries recently.
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The injuries seem to add up. I’ll probably start him when he plays, possibly over K Walker and probably as a bye week filler at flex. But I’m not expecting him to be healthy all year and wouldn’t draft him to start.
 
-OZ- said:
JohnnyU said:
He was a late bloomer and already peaked. I believe he’s on the other side of the mountain now and headed south. He will be 31 in September and has had injuries recently.
Click to expand...
The injuries seem to add up. I’ll probably start him when he plays, possibly over K Walker and probably as a bye week filler at flex. But I’m not expecting him to be healthy all year and wouldn’t draft him to start.
Click to expand...
He is most definitely a sell. I traded him during our rookie draft for the 2.05 and took Bryce Young.
 
TheDirtyWord said:
travdogg said:
TheDirtyWord said:
TE value frequently comes down to TD's.

Daniel Jones career TD rate is 3.4%. The best he ever posted was his rookie season at 5.2%. Which means in the 3 years since, it's been 2.8%.

If the Giants throw it 600 times this season, that equates to 17 TD's. They threw it 520 in 2022.

Can Jones be better? Yes.
Can Waller add significant value to this passing attack? Yes.

But you better believe in Daniel Jones ability to take the next step in his career if you take Waller because it feels like 800/6 is the ceiling here. That doesn't suck, but because he's a high-profile acquisition in NY...he's going to be an August ADP riser. And the difference between 800/6 and 600/4 is high draft capital vs WW.
Click to expand...
On the flip side, Waller is the most talented pass catcher (BY FAR) that Jones has ever had. I think an efficiency boost is a reasonable expectation for Jones with Waller and possibly better WRs (Slayton and Shepard might be #4-5 guys as opposed to starters) this season.

800-6 is a fair expectation in my opinion, and its possible Waller takes a huge target share and sees something like 130 targets, which would still only be 25% assuming that Jones has basically the same amount of attempts.

I think Waller is being underrated. He's still looked like a good player when he's been healthy, he's just been out a lot. I'd be worried if he'd sucked when he was playing, but he's been on an 80-1000-5 pace the last 2 seasons in games he actually played, and some of that was playing clear 2nd fiddle to Davante Adams.
Click to expand...
Much like my critique with Pitts...Waller is a fine player, but the situation he now finds himself is simply not advantageous for him to overachieve.

The question, if we're in agreement on 800/6, is how much of a premium are you willing to pay for those production levels at TE when the ceiling feels not much higher?
Click to expand...
I think the ceiling is 1000+ yards. 5th or 6th round is where I'd value Waller, but he'll likely go quite a bit later than that in many leagues. I think he's light years ahead of the tier of guys like Engram, Njoku, and Freiermuth. I'd be thrilled to get him in round 7, though I'd rather take Pitts in round 6. I think our difference as it was with Pitts (and maybe C.Watson?) is that I don't really think it matters if a guy is in a good offense, if they are a huge focal point of it.

I keep coming back to Waller v Hockenson, and while I have Waller ranked slightly higher, I can see the base argument for TJ. For me, I think the higher upside exists for the guy who is the clear cut #1 target in a mediocre offense vs a guy who is at best the #2 in a good offense. Factor in the 3+ round difference in price tag, and its not even close which I'd prefer to draft.

Personally, I'm not a big believer in waiting too long at TE. There is a point where drafted TEs are basically no different than waiver wire guys, but I think Waller is well above that point. That's probably more your Evan Engrams of the world, who is only going 1 round later than Waller, and has none of the upside.
 
JohnnyU said:
-OZ- said:
JohnnyU said:
He was a late bloomer and already peaked. I believe he’s on the other side of the mountain now and headed south. He will be 31 in September and has had injuries recently.
Click to expand...
The injuries seem to add up. I’ll probably start him when he plays, possibly over K Walker and probably as a bye week filler at flex. But I’m not expecting him to be healthy all year and wouldn’t draft him to start.
Click to expand...
He is most definitely a sell. I traded him during our rookie draft for the 2.05 and took Bryce Young.
Click to expand...
For that I would sell. I don’t think I’d get close to that in the league I have him.
 
NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters
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“The Daniel Jones - Darren Waller connection was even better Thursday than it was on Friday. Waller is basically always open in the middle of the field, and Jones is constantly looking for him. This offense hasn't had a weapon like Waller in quite some time and you can tell everyone is benefiting from it. Jones completed 7 of 9 passes in full team drills — four of those completions went to Waller. The three that didn't came when Waller was off the field gettin a breather. Alternate headline: Brian Daboll removed Waller from the lineup to force Jones to look elsewhere — hah. “
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Loving getting Waller at a discount right now. People put way too much stock into injuries when really there has yet to be an study showing a strong correlation with it. Pairing him with either LaPorta/Everett/Dulcich in the 11th/12th rounds as insurance feels like a steal.
 
pinkstapler said:
Loving getting Waller at a discount right now. People put way too much stock into injuries when really there has yet to be an study showing a strong correlation with it. Pairing him with either LaPorta/Everett/Dulcich in the 11th/12th rounds as insurance feels like a steal.
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Exactly
 
1145-3
1196-9
That was '19 and '20 when I think Gruden was running things in Oakland/Vegas
262 targets to rack all that up, almost 200 catches.

'21 and '22 were injury plagued and he saw 3 different head coaches over that time period

31 years old in September, he's not a spring chicken.
If he's healthy he's likely to produce, even Daniel Jones can find him and it should open up the ground game and other WRs.
I wouldn't count on a lot of TDs but he could easily over 17 games rack up something around 900-1,000 yds, handful or less TDs and be a Top 8-10 type guy, a steady starter with some upside certain weeks and also understanding that some teams will take him out of the game plan and force Jones to other targets.

Late 6th/Early 7th, paired with someone like a Njoku, Kmet, Evan Engram if you can roster 2 Tight Ends, especially if you wait when the 1st 5-6 fly off the board.
 
The bigger with predicting anything with Waller is the way the offense is designed + Jones' tendencies. If we are talking short throws, Waller can feast on those since that's the bread and butter of the offense. Intermediate stuff things get more dicey, but Daboll is great at gameplanning people open and setting up advantages not only in run-blocking, but WR/TE pressuring the secondary. Stuff 20+ yards downfield.... eh. The O is designed for Jones to not make a mistake, meaning unless Waller is a 1st read (Jones has issues with multiple progressions) and appreciably open (Jones doesn't throw 50/50 balls)... Waller isn't getting the rock. Unless the Giants fundamentally change that part of their offense and allow Jones to take more risks risks, there's going to be a cap on his production.
 
JohnnyU said:
Another year older and an injury risk. I don see him as trustworthy.
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I am targeting Waller in all my drafts. He could be huge if he stays healthy.

But I am definitely backing him up with Dulcich/La Porta/Irv Smith, and even Kincaid. Someone who has upside and in a decent offense
 
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