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The “I want to retire soon” thread (7 Viewers)

Once “retired” - would love to own a bike shop, but more realistically would love to work part time in the bike shop wrenching on bikes and getting an employee discount.
Something to consider in that field

Very popular here.
One of my buddies from college helped start something similar in Columbia, SC. It's good stuff and helps a lot of folks. I think a couple of the other founders eventually went to work at it full time.

 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
I plan to open a gentlemen’s club
 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
I plan to open a gentlemen’s club
Where's that Grandpa Simpson gif when you need it...
 
Once “retired” - would love to own a bike shop, but more realistically would love to work part time in the bike shop wrenching on bikes and getting an employee discount.
That seems ideal.
My retired buddy went from military to contractor to fleet feet (running store for those who don’t know) to travel agent and volunteer triathlon coach. That seems perfect imo.
 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
We've already covered it, but, retiring early you can't make too much or you dont get the free/discounted Obama care. And any income cuts into the amount of 401k to Roth conversations you can do. I have the option but I don't see that it's worth it in my case. Maybe a side gig dealing with cash only customers selling stuff under the table.
 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
We've already covered it, but, retiring early you can't make too much or you dont get the free/discounted Obama care. And any income cuts into the amount of 401k to Roth conversations you can do. I have the option but I don't see that it's worth it in my case. Maybe a side gig dealing with cash only customers selling stuff under the table.

My current dream scenario? I get the RICP cert and become a retirement coach. Work with 1-2 people a month. Make just enough to cover premium Oregon Duck tickets, which of course are used to entertain clients and prospects. Net zero to my income while moving a decent annual expense off my personal ledger.
 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
We've already covered it, but, retiring early you can't make too much or you dont get the free/discounted Obama care. And any income cuts into the amount of 401k to Roth conversations you can do. I have the option but I don't see that it's worth it in my case. Maybe a side gig dealing with cash only customers selling stuff under the table.
Sooooo....drug dealer?
 
Once “retired” - would love to own a bike shop, but more realistically would love to work part time in the bike shop wrenching on bikes and getting an employee discount.
That seems ideal.
My retired buddy went from military to contractor to fleet feet (running store for those who don’t know) to travel agent and volunteer triathlon coach. That seems perfect imo.

Too many steps (pardon the pun).
 
Only 11% of American workers don’t plan to work at all after they retire

The next generation of retirement savers seems less eager to relax once they leave their 9-to-5. Just 11% of would-be retirees surveyed by CNBC say they don’t plan to work in any capacity after they retire. More than a third of respondents — 36% — say they’re not sure, while the majority, 53%, anticipate working, either because they’ll want to or to supplement their income.

My plan is to continue to earn some money once I retire from my career, but I also plan on retiring in my 50s. This article is more focused on those in their 60s, so I was kind of surprised at the number of people who still plan to work.
We've already covered it, but, retiring early you can't make too much or you dont get the free/discounted Obama care. And any income cuts into the amount of 401k to Roth conversations you can do. I have the option but I don't see that it's worth it in my case. Maybe a side gig dealing with cash only customers selling stuff under the table.
Sooooo....drug dealer?
I was more thinking along the lines of making/growing things to sell at farmer's markets and county fairs. I've got enough acreage to grow a crop or two (farmers subsidies anyone). I know a guy that raises cattle and hogs on people's extra property that he butchers and sells. I've always thought my wife should get into selling the salsa she bottles. I also pay a guy right now in cash to mow about 4 acres one a week. Stuff like that. But yeah, the country version of selling drugs I suppose.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.
 
I was more thinking along the lines of making/growing things to sell at farmer's markets and county fairs. I've got enough acreage to grow a crop or two (farmers subsidies anyone). I know a guy that raises cattle and hogs on people's extra property that he butchers and sells. I've always thought my wife should get into selling the salsa she bottles. I also pay a guy right now in cash to mow about 4 acres one a week. Stuff like that. But yeah, the country version of selling drugs I suppose.

This is kind of how I grew up until I went off to college. We had a little property right outside Portland with a barn and small pasture. I'd buy 100-150 chicks at a time, raise them to full size, take them in to be slaughtered and bagged, and sell them to friends and family. I mowed the xmas tree farm next door with the small riding lawn mower, and would drive the Kubota with a rear-deck mower a mile or two up the country roads to mow several acre fields a few times a year. And I spent my summers commercial fishing for salmon, and had a little side gig of catching crawdads in a local lake and selling the tails as steelhead bait. So essentially "living off" the land and sea.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?
 
If you're thinking about doing it, like the Nike motto goes, Just Do It.

I think this thread has shown that if you think you have enough money, more than likely you have plenty. All the models are rules of thumb are conservative and as @Mookie just said, we tend to be "irrationally conservative". All my colleges who have retired tell me I won't regret it, even though they've all passed up big bucks for "just one more year". The only people I've ever seen that regret retiring are those that live to work instead of working to live.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?

I’m counting down the months/days till I’m 59.5….and I’m in mid 40s.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?

I’m counting down the months/days till I’m 59.5….and I’m in mid 40s.

I'm a Fed, in the FERS system, born in 1970, so my minimum retirement age (MRA) is 57. June 25 2027 is the 2nd Friday of the pay period in which I turn 57.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?

I’m counting down the months/days till I’m 59.5….and I’m in mid 40s.

I'm a Fed, in the FERS system, born in 1970, so my minimum retirement age (MRA) is 57. June 25 2027 is the 2nd Friday of the pay period in which I turn 57.
I'm also FERS. Turn 49 this December, so I haven't started a countdown. But now I'm tempted to.
 
Man the pension thing changes the game. I had beers with my brother-in-law last night, he retired a couple of years ago at 53 from his career as a police officer. His take home pay is the same now as it was when he was working. And since retiring he's had a couple of corporate security/anti-theft gigs that are work from home, essentially part-time, and still pay him well into 6 figures. He and his wife are living the life right now, taking a big trip every couple of months.

When I told him I also wanted retire in my 50s, he said "how do you even do that without a pension?" Although he has also saved some on his own during his career, he just couldn't comprehend how someone retires before SS without a pension. I just said, "the last couple of years I've saved and invested about 40% of my income." And I still have work to do.
 
Man the pension thing changes the game. I had beers with my brother-in-law last night, he retired a couple of years ago at 53 from his career as a police officer. His take home pay is the same now as it was when he was working. And since retiring he's had a couple of corporate security/anti-theft gigs that are work from home, essentially part-time, and still pay him well into 6 figures. He and his wife are living the life right now, taking a big trip every couple of months.

When I told him I also wanted retire in my 50s, he said "how do you even do that without a pension?" Although he has also saved some on his own during his career, he just couldn't comprehend how someone retires before SS without a pension. I just said, "the last couple of years I've saved and invested about 40% of my income." And I still have work to do.
It does. Only thing that keeps me at the hospital I’m at. I was lucky enough to start when they still offered a pension. About 5 years later they axed it for new employees. It’s not crazy money like some but at 58 it would pay me about $2500 a month for the rest of my life. Essentially doubling my SS at 62.
 
Man the pension thing changes the game. I had beers with my brother-in-law last night, he retired a couple of years ago at 53 from his career as a police officer. His take home pay is the same now as it was when he was working. And since retiring he's had a couple of corporate security/anti-theft gigs that are work from home, essentially part-time, and still pay him well into 6 figures. He and his wife are living the life right now, taking a big trip every couple of months.

When I told him I also wanted retire in my 50s, he said "how do you even do that without a pension?" Although he has also saved some on his own during his career, he just couldn't comprehend how someone retires before SS without a pension. I just said, "the last couple of years I've saved and invested about 40% of my income." And I still have work to do.
It does. Only thing that keeps me at the hospital I’m at. I was lucky enough to start when they still offered a pension. About 5 years later they axed it for new employees. It’s not crazy money like some but at 58 it would pay me about $2500 a month for the rest of my life. Essentially doubling my SS at 62.

Same with my parents - their pensions aren't huge but between them they have three small ones. And the federal one came with subsidized health care. Combine all that with their SS, and they've got their base monthly expenses covered.

Meanwhile for those of us in our early 50s out here in most of the private sector, we've got no pensions and hoping SS is still able to pay out 70% of what we should have coming to us by the time we get there :kicksrock: Oh well, I can't control any of that but I can control my savings rate, so that's what I focus on....along with trying to optimize my portfolio to squeeze another percent or two out of it every year when it comes time to start tapping it.
 
Man the pension thing changes the game. I had beers with my brother-in-law last night, he retired a couple of years ago at 53 from his career as a police officer. His take home pay is the same now as it was when he was working. And since retiring he's had a couple of corporate security/anti-theft gigs that are work from home, essentially part-time, and still pay him well into 6 figures. He and his wife are living the life right now, taking a big trip every couple of months.

When I told him I also wanted retire in my 50s, he said "how do you even do that without a pension?" Although he has also saved some on his own during his career, he just couldn't comprehend how someone retires before SS without a pension. I just said, "the last couple of years I've saved and invested about 40% of my income." And I still have work to do.
Yep. My pension kicks in four years from now, and I'll almost certainly retire on that exact day unless some affirmatively bad happens to the market between now and then. I'll have just turned 56.

My wife and I have always lived below our means, and we've always been savers. Nobody ever had to tell us to do that -- it just came naturally to us. But we've only ever saved like 12%-15% of our income. Not that I feel bad about that of course. I know that's way better than most people. But while we do have a nice nest egg, it's not enough to support us all by itself in retirement, at least not at the level we'd like.

But I've always know that that pension was there, and at this point I know basically what it's going to be. It's the equivalent of having saved another seven-figure portfolio, and that seven-digit figure doesn't start with "one." Between that and SS, my wife and I would be fine if the market somehow went to zero. It really removes a lot of risk from your planning, and of course it makes getting to retirement a lot easier.

(Of course, I took a lower salary to follow this career path, and I am actually the type who would have saved those higher earnings, so maybe it's a wash for me. I don't know. But I certainly appreciate having that additional leg to my stool.)
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.
I feel that big time.
Today was actually a good day for me. Went to Alabama law school to recruit. I got to talk with a few law students, which is usually motivating anyway, and a few judge advocates from different branches. While it might just be that they’re recruiters, we all actually seem to enjoy our jobs.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
I think… July 31, 2037? :shrug:

I’m counting down the months/days till I’m 59.5….and I’m in mid 40s.
59.5 shouldn’t matter all that much for pulling the cord. :2cents:

I'm also FERS. Turn 49 this December, so I haven't started a countdown. But now I'm tempted to.
FERS, turned 48 last month. No countdown here but then I might not stick to 20/60.
 
Same with my parents - their pensions aren't huge but between them they have three small ones. And the federal one came with subsidized health care. Combine all that with their SS, and they've got their base monthly expenses covered.

Meanwhile for those of us in our early 50s out here in most of the private sector, we've got no pensions and hoping SS is still able to pay out 70% of what we should have coming to us by the time we get there :kicksrock: Oh well, I can't control any of that but I can control my savings rate, so that's what I focus on....along with trying to optimize my portfolio to squeeze another percent or two out of it every year when it comes time to start tapping it.
There’s a huge trade off though. I know many of my peers earning double my salary without a pension. They seem more stressed in their job, but financially they’re better off.

Pensions are nice for sure but when you are reasonably sure you’re losing out in income every year, they’re not a perfect solution.

:pokey:
I admit to liking knowing my two pensions, VA disability and SS if at 70% expected, would almost cover our current expenses. And all have COLA (even if not the full CPI). And they’re backed by the federal government, so fairly secure.
 
Same with my parents - their pensions aren't huge but between them they have three small ones. And the federal one came with subsidized health care. Combine all that with their SS, and they've got their base monthly expenses covered.

Meanwhile for those of us in our early 50s out here in most of the private sector, we've got no pensions and hoping SS is still able to pay out 70% of what we should have coming to us by the time we get there :kicksrock: Oh well, I can't control any of that but I can control my savings rate, so that's what I focus on....along with trying to optimize my portfolio to squeeze another percent or two out of it every year when it comes time to start tapping it.
There’s a huge trade off though. I know many of my peers earning double my salary without a pension. They seem more stressed in their job, but financially they’re better off.

Pensions are nice for sure but when you are reasonably sure you’re losing out in income every year, they’re not a perfect solution.

:pokey:
I admit to liking knowing my two pensions, VA disability and SS if at 70% expected, would almost cover our current expenses. And all have COLA (even if not the full CPI). And they’re backed by the federal government, so fairly secure.

Oh for sure, in many industries you're trading compensation upside for the pension. And if you're smart about it and save, it might be a wash or maybe you even come out ahead. But I'd bet for many it just leads to lifestyle creep and they end up scrambling in their 50s and 60s to get enough put away to support the lifestyle they've now become accustomed to.

My "lifestyle creep" has pretty much all been money spent on my kid's education - private high school and now college. I'm on year 7 of paying sizable tuition (and room and board the past three years) with one more to go. So that's temporary and will go away in '25, and if we can get her launched in the next year or so I should be able to ramp up savings even more.
 
Same with my parents - their pensions aren't huge but between them they have three small ones. And the federal one came with subsidized health care. Combine all that with their SS, and they've got their base monthly expenses covered.

Meanwhile for those of us in our early 50s out here in most of the private sector, we've got no pensions and hoping SS is still able to pay out 70% of what we should have coming to us by the time we get there :kicksrock: Oh well, I can't control any of that but I can control my savings rate, so that's what I focus on....along with trying to optimize my portfolio to squeeze another percent or two out of it every year when it comes time to start tapping it.
There’s a huge trade off though. I know many of my peers earning double my salary without a pension. They seem more stressed in their job, but financially they’re better off.

Pensions are nice for sure but when you are reasonably sure you’re losing out in income every year, they’re not a perfect solution.

:pokey:
I admit to liking knowing my two pensions, VA disability and SS if at 70% expected, would almost cover our current expenses. And all have COLA (even if not the full CPI). And they’re backed by the federal government, so fairly secure.
My guess is that for most of the people posting in this thread, taking the higher salary and giving up the pension is the mathematically optimal move.

But I feel pretty confident that the average person in that situation would just spend that much more if they had the higher income. By "higher income" here, obviously I'm not talking about huge income shifts or anything. Just the $20K-$30K or so difference that might differentiate a cushy pension job from a similar private sector equivalent.

(Edit: It's nice to see that SFBayDuck and I were on the same page independently of one another).
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?
Now.

Countdown widget. I have mine on the back page of my phone, ticking down day by day.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?
Now.

Countdown widget. I have mine on the back page of my phone, ticking down day by day.
That widget could take over my phone. I’d have multiple count downs going. Retirement, races, vacations, etc.
 
Days like today are difficult. Looking out my window at a beautiful, crisp and clear fall day. i could be mountain biking, golfing, hiking, working in the yard, or puttering around the house, but instead I'm sitting here getting barraged with questions, responding to never-ending emails and generally grinding through my day thinking "Is this all there is?" I can't wait to be done. Haven't told anyone - even my wife who is irrationally nervous about me retiring - but I think it's going to happen next spring/summer.

Good for you! June 25 2027 for me. 2 years 9 months and 7 days. Can't wait.
When is it ok to start a countdown and know the exact number of days?
Now.

Countdown widget. I have mine on the back page of my phone, ticking down day by day.
That widget could take over my phone. I’d have multiple count downs going. Retirement, races, vacations, etc.
You can set it to 1x1. Small, unobtrusive, but there.
 
Live stream notes and reactions to watching this webinar from Christine Benz from Morningstar (recording expires this weekend if you are interested). It's a good review of a lot of the stuff we talk about in here. A few highlights:

-About 15 minutes in it shows a graph of the SWR depending on when you retired. Really shows visually how the "4% rule" only applies to those who retired in the 60s/70s worse case scenario. Also shows that way more of the time 6-8% SWR rates worked, with plenty of cohorts that could have had 8%-10%-even 12% SWRs. Speaks to what we were talking about of how so much of the estimates in the retirement planning space are based upon compounding worst case scenarios that people tend to use as the baseline.

-25 minutes in they're talking about sub-4% SWRs again based on current yields and valuations.

Part of the problem I see with this is that the success rates of their simulations had 90% as their baseline! We've talked about that in here before, but that's just crazy to me. It essentially assumes you have zero flexibility in spending and will just keep spending that initial SWR plus inflation without any ability to alter your path, and drive your financial car off the cliff if you face a bad sequence of returns. Damn near every study shows that's just not how it works in real life. There are well researched alternative viewpoints that have suggested that with enough spending flexibility built in to your plan, shooting for a 50% "success rate" is a reasonable starting point (remember, "failure" is defined in these scenarios as running out of money in the 30 year time frame, which could mean by $1 or $1M).

She's also a big "Bucket Strategy" fan. She's only 2 years in cash, which seems pretty reasonable to me. She's just leaning into the mental accounting that seems to resonate with lots of people, and talks about how it tends to lead to close to a 60/40 portfolio anyway. My issue is that other bucket/piecake fans are like 5 years of cash, and the math shows that's just not anywhere near optimal to hold as it will absolutely be a drag on SWR. But that doesn't mean it isn't the best approach for some people that lean toward a conservative approach - sleeping at night is kind of important!

-41 minutes in they hit the research around how retirees actually spend over their retirement lifecycle (the "spending smile"). Interesting in that the uptick at the end due to healthcare actually only occurs to a small percentage of people - but (imho) that seems like a tough one to ignore regardless. It's too bad LTCI seems to be so ****ty these days. They do adjust starting SWR in this section upward based on this up to a high of 5.2%.

-Variable withdrawal rates (adjusting as you go based on market conditions) are covered at the 47 minute mark. Guardrails really can have huge swings in annual spending, which would seem to be tough for a lot of people. As of now I'm most intrigued by the "forgo inflation adjustment" if your portfolio is down approach, likely on top of already annually adjusting CPI-1% as the baseline assumption. That seems to play nicely with the spending smile already.

I'm pausing at the Q&A part (53:00) as it's time to walk the dog (not a euphemism), will listen to the rest later......

I also just got her book "How to Retire" in the mail today, I had pre-ordered it a while ago. It basically recaps of a bunch of interviews/podcasts with people like Blanchett, Guyton, Pfau, Bernstein and a bunch of others. Looking forward to continuing my education!
 
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I also just got her book "How to Retire" in the mail today, I had pre-ordered it a while ago. It basically recaps of a bunch of interviews/podcasts with people like Blanchett, Guyton, Pfau, Bernstein and a bunch of others. Looking forward to continuing my education!
My copy is supposed to be here tomorrow.
 
Live stream notes and reactions to watching this webinar from Christine Benz from Morningstar (recording expires this weekend if you are interested). It's a good review of a lot of the stuff we talk about in here. A few highlights:

-About 15 minutes in it shows a graph of the SWR depending on when you retired. Really shows visually how the "4% rule" only applies to those who retired in the 60s/70s worse case scenario. Also shows that way more of the time 6-8% SWR rates worked, with plenty of cohorts that could have had 8%-10%-even 12% SWRs. Speaks to what we were talking about of how so much of the estimates in the retirement planning space are based upon compounding worst case scenarios that people tend to use as the baseline.

-25 minutes in they're talking about sub-4% SWRs again based on current yields and valuations.

Part of the problem I see with this is that the success rates of their simulations had 90% as their baseline! We've talked about that in here before, but that's just crazy to me. It essentially assumes you have zero flexibility in spending and will just keep spending that initial SWR plus inflation without any ability to alter your path, and drive your financial car off the cliff if you face a bad sequence of returns. Damn near every study shows that's just not how it works in real life. There are well researched alternative viewpoints that have suggested that with enough spending flexibility built in to your plan, shooting for a 50% "success rate" is a reasonable starting point (remember, "failure" is defined in these scenarios as running out of money in the 30 year time frame, which could mean by $1 or $1M).

She's also a big "Bucket Strategy" fan. She's only 2 years in cash, which seems pretty reasonable to me. She's just leaning into the mental accounting that seems to resonate with lots of people, and talks about how it tends to lead to close to a 60/40 portfolio anyway. My issue is that other bucket/piecake fans are like 5 years of cash, and the math shows that's just not anywhere near optimal to hold as it will absolutely be a drag on SWR. But that doesn't mean it isn't the best approach for some people that lean toward a conservative approach - sleeping at night is kind of important!

-41 minutes in they hit the research around how retirees actually spend over their retirement lifecycle (the "spending smile"). Interesting in that the uptick at the end due to healthcare actually only occurs to a small percentage of people - but (imho) that seems like a tough one to ignore regardless. It's too bad LTCI seems to be so ****ty these days. They do adjust starting SWR in this section upward based on this up to a high of 5.2%.

-Variable withdrawal rates (adjusting as you go based on market conditions) are covered at the 47 minute mark. Guardrails really can have huge swings in annual spending, which would seem to be tough for a lot of people. As of now I'm most intrigued by the "forgo inflation adjustment" if your portfolio is down approach, likely on top of already annually adjusting CPI-1% as the baseline assumption. That seems to play nicely with the spending smile already.

I'm pausing at the Q&A part (53:00) as it's time to walk the dog (not a euphemism), will listen to the rest later......

I also just got her book "How to Retire" in the mail today, I had pre-ordered it a while ago. It basically recaps of a bunch of interviews/podcasts with people like Blanchett, Guyton, Pfau, Bernstein and a bunch of others. Looking forward to continuing my education!
Thanks, now I don't have to listen to it. Looking forward to the book report.
 
I also just got her book "How to Retire" in the mail today, I had pre-ordered it a while ago. It basically recaps of a bunch of interviews/podcasts with people like Blanchett, Guyton, Pfau, Bernstein and a bunch of others. Looking forward to continuing my education!
My copy is supposed to be here tomorrow.
Reviews would be helpful when you guys get a chance.
 
She's also a big "Bucket Strategy" fan. She's only 2 years in cash, which seems pretty reasonable to me. She's just leaning into the mental accounting that seems to resonate with lots of people, and talks about how it tends to lead to close to a 60/40 portfolio anyway. My issue is that other bucket/piecake fans are like 5 years of cash, and the math shows that's just not anywhere near optimal to hold as it will absolutely be a drag on SWR. But that doesn't mean it isn't the best approach for some people that lean toward a conservative approach - sleeping at night is kind of important!
5 years cash seems excessive. Unless by “cash” you’re including things like I bonds or CDs. I generally like the bucket strategy, 2 years in savings, 3 years worth of bonds, 20 years of equities. This approach leads to an 80/20 portfolio. Which is basically our target anyway. (Keep in mind, our true fixed income / pensions are fairly significant).
 
She's also a big "Bucket Strategy" fan. She's only 2 years in cash, which seems pretty reasonable to me. She's just leaning into the mental accounting that seems to resonate with lots of people, and talks about how it tends to lead to close to a 60/40 portfolio anyway. My issue is that other bucket/piecake fans are like 5 years of cash, and the math shows that's just not anywhere near optimal to hold as it will absolutely be a drag on SWR. But that doesn't mean it isn't the best approach for some people that lean toward a conservative approach - sleeping at night is kind of important!
5 years cash seems excessive. Unless by “cash” you’re including things like I bonds or CDs. I generally like the bucket strategy, 2 years in savings, 3 years worth of bonds, 20 years of equities. This approach leads to an 80/20 portfolio. Which is basically our target anyway. (Keep in mind, our true fixed income / pensions are fairly significant).

To me "cash" is anything short term that is "cash-like" - cash, money markets, CDs, individual shorter-term bonds, and T-bills. Essentially anything short-term that is focused on "return of your money" and not "return on your money". Once you get out to intermediate and longer term bonds that's in that bond category.

Roger Whitney with his "pie cake" strategy believes in having 5 years of spending in cash-like instruments as the first layer of that cake.
When we have someone that goes into retirement, our baseline is that they have a minimum of five years of their consumption that they need to fund with their financial assets de-risked and in individual things—CDs, individual bonds, and so on—so we can prefund their consumption. I’m much more concerned of the return of the money.

I've heard 3-5 years often associated with the bucket strategy. Fritz Gilbert says 1-3 years, but does three himself (while also only withdrawing 3%).

For me, 1-2 years totally makes sense. Three years? Ok, if you're pretty risk averse. But beyond that? Now you're getting to 12%-20% or more of your assets and that would seem to be a drag on your portfolio and, most importantly, to your SWR. If you're overfunded and can get by with a 2.5% or 3% withdrawal rate, then go for it! But if you're trying to maximize your SWR, it's going to make it tougher on you to do so.
 
Man the pension thing changes the game. I had beers with my brother-in-law last night, he retired a couple of years ago at 53 from his career as a police officer. His take home pay is the same now as it was when he was working. And since retiring he's had a couple of corporate security/anti-theft gigs that are work from home, essentially part-time, and still pay him well into 6 figures. He and his wife are living the life right now, taking a big trip every couple of months.

When I told him I also wanted retire in my 50s, he said "how do you even do that without a pension?" Although he has also saved some on his own during his career, he just couldn't comprehend how someone retires before SS without a pension. I just said, "the last couple of years I've saved and invested about 40% of my income." And I still have work to do.
I have a friend from college who is retiring from the SFO police force. She's been smart and already has some investment properties in and around Nashville and plans on moving out there to a) buy more and b) get into private security for all the bigwigs now in Nashville (country music and the like).
 

For me, 1-2 years totally makes sense. Three years? Ok, if you're pretty risk averse. But beyond that? Now you're getting to 12%-20% or more of your assets and that would seem to be a drag on your portfolio and, most importantly, to your SWR. If you're overfunded and can get by with a 2.5% or 3% withdrawal rate, then go for it! But if you're trying to maximize your SWR, it's going to make it tougher on you to do so.
All depends on whether CDs are yielding 6% or 0.6%...
 

For me, 1-2 years totally makes sense. Three years? Ok, if you're pretty risk averse. But beyond that? Now you're getting to 12%-20% or more of your assets and that would seem to be a drag on your portfolio and, most importantly, to your SWR. If you're overfunded and can get by with a 2.5% or 3% withdrawal rate, then go for it! But if you're trying to maximize your SWR, it's going to make it tougher on you to do so.
All depends on whether CDs are yielding 6% or 0.6%...
Does it? What's the inflation rate likely to be in each of those scenarios?

ETA: That's how I see these "cash-like" instruments - at best they'll keep up with inflation, at worst (actual cash) they're losing purchasing power.
 

For me, 1-2 years totally makes sense. Three years? Ok, if you're pretty risk averse. But beyond that? Now you're getting to 12%-20% or more of your assets and that would seem to be a drag on your portfolio and, most importantly, to your SWR. If you're overfunded and can get by with a 2.5% or 3% withdrawal rate, then go for it! But if you're trying to maximize your SWR, it's going to make it tougher on you to do so.
All depends on whether CDs are yielding 6% or 0.6%...
Does it? What's the inflation rate likely to be in each of those scenarios?

ETA: That's how I see these "cash-like" instruments - at best they'll keep up with inflation, at worst (actual cash) they're losing purchasing power.
IMO, it does to some extent. No guarantees, but periods of high inflation usually see a poor stock market and vice versa with low inflation. So, yes, it keeps up with inflation, but it also is a good buffer against volatility in those times when you typically need it.

Of course, the stock market can say FU and do the exact opposite because it's an a-hole sometimes.
 
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She's also a big "Bucket Strategy" fan. She's only 2 years in cash, which seems pretty reasonable to me. She's just leaning into the mental accounting that seems to resonate with lots of people, and talks about how it tends to lead to close to a 60/40 portfolio anyway. My issue is that other bucket/piecake fans are like 5 years of cash, and the math shows that's just not anywhere near optimal to hold as it will absolutely be a drag on SWR. But that doesn't mean it isn't the best approach for some people that lean toward a conservative approach - sleeping at night is kind of important!
5 years cash seems excessive. Unless by “cash” you’re including things like I bonds or CDs. I generally like the bucket strategy, 2 years in savings, 3 years worth of bonds, 20 years of equities. This approach leads to an 80/20 portfolio. Which is basically our target anyway. (Keep in mind, our true fixed income / pensions are fairly significant).

To me "cash" is anything short term that is "cash-like" - cash, money markets, CDs, individual shorter-term bonds, and T-bills. Essentially anything short-term that is focused on "return of your money" and not "return on your money". Once you get out to intermediate and longer term bonds that's in that bond category.

Roger Whitney with his "pie cake" strategy believes in having 5 years of spending in cash-like instruments as the first layer of that cake.
When we have someone that goes into retirement, our baseline is that they have a minimum of five years of their consumption that they need to fund with their financial assets de-risked and in individual things—CDs, individual bonds, and so on—so we can prefund their consumption. I’m much more concerned of the return of the money.

I've heard 3-5 years often associated with the bucket strategy. Fritz Gilbert says 1-3 years, but does three himself (while also only withdrawing 3%).

For me, 1-2 years totally makes sense. Three years? Ok, if you're pretty risk averse. But beyond that? Now you're getting to 12%-20% or more of your assets and that would seem to be a drag on your portfolio and, most importantly, to your SWR. If you're overfunded and can get by with a 2.5% or 3% withdrawal rate, then go for it! But if you're trying to maximize your SWR, it's going to make it tougher on you to do so.

If you’re using 3% you can probably do anything you want except keep money in cash.

What is your targeted portfolio heading into retirement?

ETA: That's how I see these "cash-like" instruments - at best they'll keep up with inflation, at worst (actual cash) they're losing purchasing power.
This is why I’m continuing to buy I bonds at 1.3% plus CPI. they’ll keep up with inflation. But after we buy the rest of ours in October, we’re still under 3% of our portfolio so far.
 
If you’re using 3% you can probably do anything you want except keep money in cash.

What is your targeted portfolio heading into retirement?

Agreed, at 3% you're getting close to a level where your investment mix almost doesn't matter if your retirement plan is to not spend much of your portfolio or to leave a large legacy (although in that case you should arguably be more aggressive as the timeframe isn't your life but your heirs').

I'm sponging up all the knowledge I can, so still not sure. I asked the bond tent/rising equity glidepath question of Frank Vasquez, looking forward to hearing his answer. As of right now I'm operating under the assumption that I'll "retire" in the next 2-5 years, and over the last 6 months or so I've shifted from something like a standard 90/10 to an allocation of:
  • 65% us stocks split mostly between LCG and SCV and then smaller chunks of both property/casualty and REITs. I think I'll drop this to 55% over time to add to some of the below.
  • 10% int'l (5% emerging value, 5% dev value)
  • 11% mostly LT bonds . I'm working towards 15%, pending learning more about the bond tent idea and how it plays with a risk parity-style portfolio. But because I'm in GOVZ and EDV this sleeve should act like 1.5x TLT anyway
  • 6% gold, I'd like to get to 10%
  • 3% Managed Futures, working towards 5%
  • 2% crypto
  • 3% cash
I have a handful of smaller retirement accounts - HSA, 401K, Roth 401K, and a rollover IRA where I'm playing around with different versions of risk parity portfolios, including sprinkling in some equity leverage via UPRO. But across all of them and my primary IRA I end up with approx the above allocation.

So the big consideration that could change things is if I decide it makes sense to do the rising equity glidepath. In that case at retirement I'd want to end up with something that perhaps looks more like:
45-50% equities
30-35% LT Bonds
10% gold
5% Managed Futures
5% cash
(who knows what will happen with crypto so leaving it out for now)

Then I'd slowly and naturally shift over the first 10-15 years back to something more like the above in terms of the equity/bond split.
 
This is why I’m continuing to buy I bonds at 1.3% plus CPI. they’ll keep up with inflation. But after we buy the rest of ours in October, we’re still under 3% of our portfolio so far.

Makes total sense. But as you alluded to it just takes years to build up enough of those to really make a difference. But if you're diligent about it and have the timeframe it's a great option.

This part of the conversation had me thinking about the three biggest risks we're trying to solve for - inflation, sequence of returns, and longevity.

TIPs ladders and iBonds solve the first two, but can't help with longevity.
Annuities can solve for longevity and sequence of returns, but not inflation (most of them, as I understand it anyway)
Equities are a good hedge against inflation and longevity, but face the sequence of returns risk more than anything else.
 
Lots of financial talk in this thread, which is great.... but excuse me while I pivot and discuss the WHERE'S when it comes to retirement.

I know what I want in terms of a "feel" of where I want to be: smaller town with "everything one would need", but close enough to a bigger town in case I want to see a bigger live music act. I also am like 99% sure I want to be in Texas or the South. Call me crazy but I like the heat, can stand humidity, and absolutely love thunderstorms rolling through on a summer afternoon.

And I know this is the "retirement" thread, but I doubt I will ever fully "retire". Once my kids are out of the house and I'm separated/divorced, I am OUT of California. Can't happen soon enough... as much as I know I will miss the holy heck out of my nuggets. So I will need to be somewhere close-ish to a major airport so I can fly for work trips.

Right now I have my sights set on Marble Falls, TX. It's 45 minutes northwest of Austin, and reportedly will be the final stop on their rail line that extends out from Austin on a northwest path. I can probably find a nice little house for under $1MM. I don't need anything fancy. 3 BR would do, that way I could have an office and a guest room for my Mom (God willing she's alive at this point) or one of my kids.

Any other smallish towns in that vein y'all could think of that have rave reviews from residents?

I daydream about this crap way too much :lol:
 
Lots of financial talk in this thread, which is great.... but excuse me while I pivot and discuss the WHERE'S when it comes to retirement.

I know what I want in terms of a "feel" of where I want to be: smaller town with "everything one would need", but close enough to a bigger town in case I want to see a bigger live music act. I also am like 99% sure I want to be in Texas or the South. Call me crazy but I like the heat, can stand humidity, and absolutely love thunderstorms rolling through on a summer afternoon.

And I know this is the "retirement" thread, but I doubt I will ever fully "retire". Once my kids are out of the house and I'm separated/divorced, I am OUT of California. Can't happen soon enough... as much as I know I will miss the holy heck out of my nuggets. So I will need to be somewhere close-ish to a major airport so I can fly for work trips.

Right now I have my sights set on Marble Falls, TX. It's 45 minutes northwest of Austin, and reportedly will be the final stop on their rail line that extends out from Austin on a northwest path. I can probably find a nice little house for under $1MM. I don't need anything fancy. 3 BR would do, that way I could have an office and a guest room for my Mom (God willing she's alive at this point) or one of my kids.

Any other smallish towns in that vein y'all could think of that have rave reviews from residents?

I daydream about this crap way too much :lol:
Can't help you with Texas or SEC territory, sorry. We're either going to stay where we are (perfectly viable) or move to the high desert region of the southwest. What we've learned is that it's kind of tough to find these little towns when you live hundreds of miles away and you're just getting to know the area. We would also be interested in sort of a bedroom community, but we might have to live in the area for a little while before we find the right spot. As much as I hate to say this, there's no rule that says you can only move once after retirement -- we might end up moving to a "starter" location in our preferred region with the option of relocating again if we find the right spot.
 
Lots of financial talk in this thread, which is great.... but excuse me while I pivot and discuss the WHERE'S when it comes to retirement.

I know what I want in terms of a "feel" of where I want to be: smaller town with "everything one would need", but close enough to a bigger town in case I want to see a bigger live music act. I also am like 99% sure I want to be in Texas or the South. Call me crazy but I like the heat, can stand humidity, and absolutely love thunderstorms rolling through on a summer afternoon.

And I know this is the "retirement" thread, but I doubt I will ever fully "retire". Once my kids are out of the house and I'm separated/divorced, I am OUT of California. Can't happen soon enough... as much as I know I will miss the holy heck out of my nuggets. So I will need to be somewhere close-ish to a major airport so I can fly for work trips.

Right now I have my sights set on Marble Falls, TX. It's 45 minutes northwest of Austin, and reportedly will be the final stop on their rail line that extends out from Austin on a northwest path. I can probably find a nice little house for under $1MM. I don't need anything fancy. 3 BR would do, that way I could have an office and a guest room for my Mom (God willing she's alive at this point) or one of my kids.

Any other smallish towns in that vein y'all could think of that have rave reviews from residents?

I daydream about this crap way too much :lol:
Can't help you with Texas or SEC territory, sorry. We're either going to stay where we are (perfectly viable) or move to the high desert region of the southwest. What we've learned is that it's kind of tough to find these little towns when you live hundreds of miles away and you're just getting to know the area. We would also be interested in sort of a bedroom community, but we might have to live in the area for a little while before we find the right spot. As much as I hate to say this, there's no rule that says you can only move once after retirement -- we might end up moving to a "starter" location in our preferred region with the option of relocating again if we find the right spot.
To the bolded... absolutely.

I just know exactly what I'll want at age 59ish. I'll still want a walkable community with bars/restaurants nearby.

Austin area would be perfect for me since I know I'd be 45 minutes away from world class live music and plenty of friends likely to still be living there.
 
So the big consideration that could change things is if I decide it makes sense to do the rising equity glidepath. In that case at retirement I'd want to end up with something that perhaps looks more like:
45-50% equities
30-35% LT Bonds
10% gold
5% Managed Futures
5% cash
(who knows what will happen with crypto so leaving it out for now)
👍🏽 I’m still not sold on gold but I guess there’s a place for it. I also haven’t done managed futures but that’s just because I want to keep things simple if possible.
I have HODL, but less than 1% of our assets.

Makes total sense. But as you alluded to it just takes years to build up enough of those to really make a difference. But if you're diligent about it and have the timeframe it's a great option.
Yeah, we’ll have $40k by the end of October but I suspect November will have a fixed rate lower than 1.3% (just a hunch). So I’m not sure we’d buy more until the fixed rate comes back. $40k is one year of non-covered expenses (planned expenses over the pensions) so that’s nice to have but I’ll want to increase it.

This part of the conversation had me thinking about the three biggest risks we're trying to solve for - inflation, sequence of returns, and longevity.
Yep. Honestly, the biggest risk for us is her longevity after I die. I’m kinda good for life but she won’t get my pensions or VA. So that’s the unknown. I have life insurance to 70, then she can get my maximum SS if I died, so I think she’ll be okay but that’s the greatest unknown.

the WHERE'S when it comes to retirement.

Our plan is to have a decent lake house, 30-45 minutes from our current location. Fairly low cost of living. Rent (or possibly buy a place) at our favorite vacation spot a few months each year. If it were just my choice, I’d move there. I have a good friend already there, and have little doubt we’d make more friends in the community. The only challenge is where our 5 kids end up. But I figure if we had a decent house, they’ll visit.

Health is the biggest retirement concern imo. So we’ll do everything in our power to maintain our health.
 
👍🏽 I’m still not sold on gold but I guess there’s a place for it.

I never owned any until last year, and that was just based on on a few technical analysts I follow suggesting it was poised for a breakout (which did happen). Then I got into the RPR podcast this year and bought some more. I posted about it yesterday in the stock thread - it's more than held its own against the S&P over several time frames over the past couple of decades. But that's not why I plan on holding it during retirement, it's for the diversification.

I think I've posted it before here somewhere, but EarlyRetirementNow did a deep dive on it as part of his SWR series back in early 2020, and his conclusion was that it probably does make sense to hold 10-15% in a drawdown portfolio (although he wasn't moved enough to own it).

Conclusion​

Just for full disclosure, except for a quarter-ounce Gold American Eagle coin I got from my late Uncle Karl I own no gold. So, with a little bit of confirmation bias, I set out to prove that gold has no place in a retirement portfolio. The average return over time is simply too low. But gold shines (pardon the pun) when all the other asset classes are hurting. And that’s a huge benefit! Not so much in the pre-1920s era but at least during the last 100 years and during some of the well-known bear markets and recessions.

I particularly like the fact that gold seems to work well both during inflationary recessions (1970s) but also during the bad demand shocks that conjured up fears of a deflationary scenario (2008/9).

So, am I going to increase my gold holdings? Probably not. At least not right now. Here are two reasons:
  1. Procrastination: Yeah, I admit it, I’m a bit of a procrastinator. But there is even a good rationale to stick with equities; let’s just ride the equity momentum a little bit longer. I don’t see any imminent risk for a recession around the corner and I hope that the music doesn’t stop playing in this financial version of musical chairs anytime soon. Update: oops, that didn’t age well! Just two months later, we had the 2020 recession. And gold would have worked quite well as a diversifier again!
  2. Inertia: Making a major change is hard! For me to go from 0% gold to 10-15% gold allocation would be a major shift and I’d need to see evidence almost “beyond reasonable doubt” to make that move. But with the lingering doubts about whether gold will perform as well as in the past (see the disclaimer and the caveat about the gold ownership restrictions and the government fixing prices above), I’m still on the fence about putting a six-figure sum into some useless metal just sitting around and not generating any dividends. But likewise, if you currently do own 10-15% you probably don’t see any clear and convincing evidence to move out of gold either.
 
I've mentioned this before I think, but my wife really likes the idea of moving into a 55+ community. TBH, that is not really what I had in mind, but the general idea is growing on me -- I'll need to make friends somehow, and it seems like it would be easier to do so in a planned community like that.

One adjustment that I'll have to make is learning how to deal with an HOA, which I've never had to worry about before. But really, I don't see what the big deal is. I have never put up Christmas or Halloween decorations ever. Not a single time. I don't put up yard signs. I know you guys are probably surprised to hear this, but the Karamazov household does not have one of those "In This House We Believe" signs out front. My wife and I are both judgey about people who don't park their cars in their garage. We don't want to paint our house a weird color. We don't want to keep chickens or anything.

Come to think of it, I think I'll fit right in with the typical HOA.
 

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