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The footballguys cheatsheet as a ADP List (1 Viewer)

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Last night's draft I saw an interesting thing. You could see who had the FBG list in their hands, not because I saw it, but because more than 2 teams were drafting right down the list. The issue here is that it makes ADP superfluous because there are teams that will snipe the guys you are waiting on because you agree with FBG.

It is the equivalent of having KK in poker and running into the guy with AA. All your plans fall to dust.

/rant

the issue becomes you cannot wait for a guy to fall to you if you have pegged a guy using a FBG cheetsheet. You have to be willing to pull the trigger early or he will snipe him from you.

 
I saw the exact same thing happen at my FBG Players Championship draft Sunday. I was using Draft Dominator, and I can't beging to tell you how many mid to late round picks by other teams were exactly what DD predicted as the best value

 
Well I guess that is a testament to FBG and/or ADP being so universally accepted. What cha going do about that unless you're wiling to trust yourself more than the conventionally accepted experts?

 
A few thoughts:

1. I've had that experience before. I made a note of it as to which specific owner(s) I suspected were FBG and made sure to take that into account as to whether or not to draft a player ahead of his FBG recommended slot in future drafts, or even the current draft once the trend surfaces.

2. As I'm sure you know, ADP is just that, average, so half the drafts will usually see a player go earlier than ADP, if only by a pick or two. And of course, recent ADP can be different from summer-long ADP.

3. I've used a second source and weighted my positional ranks to help differentiate and/or supplement my tiers. Getting a second viewpoint forces me to weigh on which ranking I trust more at various positions. This year, I went 60 FBG/40 brand X at RB, 55 FBG/45 brand X at WR, 45 FBG/55 brand X at QB, and 75 FBG/25 brand X at TE. Best of all, I'm forced to consciously examine exactly how I feel about nearly every player I will consider drafting by going through that exercise. If you use a GOOD second source, then you may tilt the players away from the straight-FBG ticket and move some players up or down enough to avoid missing on all or most of them.

4. Speaking of missing on players, I've never had a draft where I got all the realistic players to fall to me that I wanted. This year, I was sandwiched between two very good drafters, and I was more often than not seeing the top player on my list go immediately before my slot. Hopefully, I returned the favor often. But I always use tiers to help me see where the value drops are and nearly every time, I was able to get a comparable player. That tier strategy may become increasingly important if your league becomes heavily populated by FBGs.

And it's even possible that one of your FBG suspects was coming to similar conclusions to FBG either by their own judgment or with the advice of another FF source. A few of the players I barely missed were Ridley and McGahee at RB, and Stevie Johnson, Lloyd and Torrey Smith at WR. The Lloyd and Smith drafts were by someone who I know is not FBG. They may be the worst team in the league post-draft. Sometimes there are blind stabs in the dark. Some owners like to load up on high-scoring teams like the Patriots (as in 2 of the 5 names I just listed.). And it's not like the Broncos have been a secret this year with all the Peyton coverage, thus explaining McGahee as a common mid-round RB championed at many places, not just FBG.

Last year in a long-running stable league I was annoyed because my plans to get either Graham or Gronk in the sixth round were foiled by two owners who took both of them just a handful of picks before my plan could be enacted. Imagine how frustrating it was seeing them both go off while I fooled around with Owen Daniels and Fred Davis, especially when I played against the Graham owner in the championship while Davis was out due to his suspension.

I didn't realize it at the time, but when I looked at both teams, I saw that each had drafted to match the TE with their QB. Apparently that was the big strategy, the so-called "connection" and, being that neither is FBG nor necessarily shark-like, they were filling out their starters rather than going best RB/WR available. This story shows that sometimes, there's just very little you can do and the picks don't fall your way. All you can do is prepare sufficiently to dig deep as needed at certain positions when you get sniped.

 
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Honestly (and not to sound like a "my league is better..." kind of turd) - that is why I don't particularly like and no longer play in redraft leagues. Only dynasty.

With the wealth of redraft stats and rankings and projections, there is no advantage to those who do the "work" - because those that don't can access a cheat sheet that comes to similar conclusions, lands them a good team without any effort or skill.

Honestly, there was a certain "fun" in crawling over the internet trying to ammass obscure stats that can now be found in a google search and a click. Now I sound like one of those "good old days of FF" guys...

On the other hand - just use the fact that you basically have their draft sheet to your advantage. You like a guy better than most? Snipe him early. You think a guy is overrated, let someone draft off thier sheet and take him right where they should, knowing some other guy will fall.

 
Honestly (and not to sound like a "my league is better..." kind of turd) - that is why I don't particularly like and no longer play in redraft leagues. Only dynasty. With the wealth of redraft stats and rankings and projections, there is no advantage to those who do the "work" - because those that don't can access a cheat sheet that comes to similar conclusions, lands them a good team without any effort or skill.Honestly, there was a certain "fun" in crawling over the internet trying to ammass obscure stats that can now be found in a google search and a click. Now I sound like one of those "good old days of FF" guys...On the other hand - just use the fact that you basically have their draft sheet to your advantage. You like a guy better than most? Snipe him early. You think a guy is overrated, let someone draft off thier sheet and take him right where they should, knowing some other guy will fall.
You're not ripping the league. You're stating your preference and giving reasons why. Good post.I'd be interested in a good dynasty league. I've done keepers and enjoyed the extra layer of strategy. I've pulled back to just one league which is a redraft due to having a split of probably 5-6 FBG types, 3-4 other interested owners, and 2-3 less intense owners. I feel it would hurt the league if it became full-blown dynasty.Anyway, in redrafts, the information advantage that you could work to achieve "back in the day" is largely, although not completely, gone. There are still pockets of information available, but now it comes down to choosing wisely among information sources and tailoring that information directly to your league. It's not just about inputting the scoring system, etc.; it's about knowing league tendencies which reveal roughly what caliber of player you can get at each position in the middle and late rounds. I suppose it could be described as becoming a better draft technician, making sure you take every advantage you can get when it comes to knowing your league and applying that knowledge to get the best possible results from your draft. Certainly that includes what you just described -- use your knowledge of their cheat sheet against them.
 

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