Well - lets see how this plays out. My prediction is that Trump will still pardon Manafort - sooner rather than later.
Manafort will then find some financial support to mount a legal defense to the NY allegations. The first thing they will do is attack the indictment on double jeopardy grounds - and I think that could take several years to resolve. It will have to be argued at the trial court level - and I assume NY has an appellate division, and then the NY Supreme Court, and then the US Supreme Court. Given that Manafort is likely to be free on bail - this will not be an expedited process.
Only then - if Manafort loses all the way - will he ever stand trial on the state charges.
So, while I do find the indictment, and its timing, to be amusing, I am not sure Manafort will ever face the consequences in a New York prison.