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The Russia Investigation: Trump Pardons Flynn (6 Viewers)

I would have more respect for the process if they file now - rather than after a pardon.

I guess I think in the end - all the state court threats are just that - threats.
Happy to place a friendly wager on this:  Tottenham's whatever vs a righteous YNWA graphic.

I think he gets state charges (on something).

 
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Short handing the math, it’s another 43 months. So 90 months total (which is 7.5 years). Manafort will get time served and could get up to 15% off for good behavior. So he will serve somewhere between five and six years most likely. 

Thats not insignificant for a septegenarian. 
Yeah, probably 74-75 years old before he gets out.  Might be a life sentence.

 
Yeah, probably 74-75 years old before he gets out.  Might be a life sentence.
State charges aside:  all of this assumes he doesn't get rung up on additional charges beyond the stuff they were hoping to flip him with too.  They got him on the stuff they could pin on him solo for a reason.

 
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I would have more respect for the process if they file now - rather than after a pardon.
It costs a lot of money. If I’m a taxpayer in New York, I think I would object. If the guy gets pardoned, that’s one thing. But to file right now before he gets pardoned? That seems like a waste of money and resources. 

 
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BREAKING / NBC News: Paul Manafort has just been indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, according to court documents provided to NBC News by DA Cy Vance’s office.

9:38 AM - 13 Mar 2019
Well too late for my last post. 

Nonetheless, if I lived in New York I think I’d be a little bit irritated. 

 
It costs a lot of money. If I’m a taxpayer in New York, I think I would object. If the guy gets pardoned, that’s one thing. But to file right now before he gets pardoned? That seems like a waste of money and resources. 
Not if you think he's one of the keys to much bigger crimes it's not.

 
As regards the pardon: 

I’m betting that if Trump does mean to pardon Manafort he won’t do it until after the results of the 2020 election. 

 
Pretty sure Vance is all ready to charge in NY.


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BREAKING / NBC News: Paul Manafort has just been indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, according to court documents provided to NBC News by DA Cy Vance’s office.

9:38 AM - 13 Mar 2019
*cough, cough*

 
It costs a lot of money. If I’m a taxpayer in New York, I think I would object. If the guy gets pardoned, that’s one thing. But to file right now before he gets pardoned? That seems like a waste of money and resources. 
Well you are likely to be time-bound on a statute of limitation - depending on the charges.  It would probably be cheaper to try him now - and let the sentence run concurrently with the federal sentence.  He is not is position to mount an expensive defense - and he probably does not want to be in Federal Prison in New York while waiting on a trial.  

 
As regards the pardon: 

I’m betting that if Trump does mean to pardon Manafort he won’t do it until after the results of the 2020 election. 
I think it's more likely they spring him from the pokey and put him on a plane to Moscow than they let him sit and stew for another 18 months with state charges looming.

 
Cyrus Vance, Jr.‏ @ManhattanDA 8m8 minutes ago

A Manhattan grand jury has voted to indict Paul Manafort. “No one is beyond the law in New York.”
I'm all for throwing Manafort in prison for the rest of his life, but the nerve of this guy tweeting out "no one is above the law in New York" after what he did with Weinstein, Ivanka and Don Jr is something else.

 
:lmao:

At least I got the timing right....

Your picture was too big - so I hope this is acceptable...
A+ work.

You're a good sport Sinn.  If you want out of it because it was a done deal before you accepted you can ditch it faster than Paul Manafort leaves prison behind when his pardon notice comes down.

 
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Natasha Bertrand‏ @NatashaBertrand 25m25 minutes ago

Wow. Downing (Manafort's attorney) is saying that Judge ABJ found that there was no evidence of Russia collusion. Protesters shout out “LIAR” and “THAT’S NOT WHAT SHE SAID.” (They’re right, it’s not what she said. She said this case had not addressed the collusion question.)

 
Well - lets see how this plays out.  My prediction is that Trump will still pardon Manafort - sooner rather than later.

Manafort will then find some financial support to mount a legal defense to the NY allegations.  The first thing they will do is attack the indictment on double jeopardy grounds - and I think that could take several years to resolve.  It will have to be argued at the trial court level - and I assume NY has an appellate division, and then the NY Supreme Court, and then the US Supreme Court.  Given that Manafort is likely to be free on bail - this will not be an expedited process.

Only then - if Manafort loses all the way - will he ever stand trial on the state charges.

So, while I do find the indictment, and its timing, to be amusing, I am not sure Manafort will ever face the consequences in a New York prison. 

 
Well - lets see how this plays out.  My prediction is that Trump will still pardon Manafort - sooner rather than later.

Manafort will then find some financial support to mount a legal defense to the NY allegations.  The first thing they will do is attack the indictment on double jeopardy grounds - and I think that could take several years to resolve.  It will have to be argued at the trial court level - and I assume NY has an appellate division, and then the NY Supreme Court, and then the US Supreme Court.  Given that Manafort is likely to be free on bail - this will not be an expedited process.

Only then - if Manafort loses all the way - will he ever stand trial on the state charges.

So, while I do find the indictment, and its timing, to be amusing, I am not sure Manafort will ever face the consequences in a New York prison. 
It's not a done deal that Trump is going to pardon Manafort either. Sure, he has the ability to, but it does not come without a price. He also has had the ability to shut down the Mueller probe, but his advisors have told him (wisely) about the political ramifications of doing so. There will be fallout if he pardons a guy who has committed crimes with him.

 
but it does not come without a price.
What is that price?  The GOP is going to turn on him for issuing a pardon for crimes unrelated to Trump or the campaign?  Seriously?

Trump's pardon of Arpaio was far more egregious than pardoning Manafort for these crimes. 

 
What is that price?  The GOP is going to turn on him for issuing a pardon for crimes unrelated to Trump or the campaign?  Seriously?

Trump's pardon of Arpaio was far more egregious than pardoning Manafort for these crimes. 
Manafort was Trump's campaign manager. He was also in on the famous Trump Tower meetings with Russians. Trump would be pardoning a guy who was one of his own partners in crime. He'd be sending a loud and clear message that Cohen is doing full time because he stopped lying for Trump while Manafort will be a free man because he continued to.   I guess it's expecting too much based on what we've seen, but that might not sit well with people who actually would like to get to the truth.

 
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Natasha Bertrand‏ @NatashaBertrand 25m25 minutes ago

Wow. Downing (Manafort's attorney) is saying that Judge ABJ found that there was no evidence of Russia collusion. Protesters shout out “LIAR” and “THAT’S NOT WHAT SHE SAID.” (They’re right, it’s not what she said. She said this case had not addressed the collusion question.)
Which is clearly a direct call for a pardon. There’s no reason for him to say it other than for Trump to see it.

Today will start a chain of events. The first event being the state charges. Next is likely a Manafort pardon after his lawyer tells Trump to pardon him now or he starts talking. Trump’s lawyers will come up a halfway reasonable justification for the pardon and a couple days later Trump or Rudy will admit that it was to keep him from talking. That gets added to Mueller’s obstruction case and he gives that part over to the AG.

 
Which is clearly a direct call for a pardon. There’s no reason for him to say it other than for Trump to see it.

Today will start a chain of events. The first event being the state charges. Next is likely a Manafort pardon after his lawyer tells Trump to pardon him now or he starts talking. Trump’s lawyers will come up a halfway reasonable justification for the pardon and a couple days later Trump or Rudy will admit that it was to keep him from talking. That gets added to Mueller’s obstruction case and he gives that part over to the AG.
:lmao:

So true.

 

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