The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (1 Viewer)

[themeistersinger]

Yes. That's a complete misunderstanding of how categorisation and statistics work in Russia. My family used to have relatives: three brothers from the same parents: Kurt, Walter and Horst According to their passport data, Kurt was German, Walter was Tatar and Horst was Bashkir

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1553792461339824128

 

[themeistersinger]

Seen a few takes recently arguing that Russian weapons don’t work well. Having spent time inside a number of Russian manufactured systems I thought I’d address why I think there is often a gap between Russian weapons on paper versus their performance in the field. 1/25

https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1553745899871952897

 

[themeistersinger]

In the last day or so, a video showing Russian soldiers conducting a hideous and repulsive act against a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner of war has circulated. While I will not amplify this, I wanted to provide some thoughts. 1/15

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1552886720454361089.html

 

[themeistersinger]

The Next War Crime: Did Russia or Ukraine Attack a POW Camp?

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/the-next-war-crime-did-russia-or-ukraine-attack-a-pow-camp/

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin Has a Problem: He Is Running Out of Soldiers to Send to Die in Ukraine

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/putin-has-a-problem-he-is-running-out-of-soldiers-to-send-to-die-in-ukraine/

 

[themeistersinger]

In the late Soviet era this role was played by the "collective farm markets" (колхозные рынки). Even though the shop was empty, you still could buy food on these markets from the collective farm (= the state), but for the price several times higher than the official one

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1552324896490807296

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Braces as Kherson Bridge Strikes Hint at Imminent Ukrainian Offensive

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/27/russia-braces-as-kherson-bridge-strikes-hint-at-imminent-ukrainian-offensive-a78408

 

[themeistersinger]

Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov reported that German MARS II multiple-launch rocket systems have arrived in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1554062447287439360

Nice to see something from Germany actually making it into Ukraine

 

[themeistersinger]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Russia - 5020, of which: destroyed: 3202, damaged: 103, abandoned: 323, captured: 1392

So visually confirmed - Russia has lost over 5000 vehicles since start of war

 

[dickey moe]

Been awhile since I've been in this thread. Surprised there were no comments about the Zelensky couple's wartime glamour spread in Vogue. Not exactly a good look.

 

[GregR]

Realized how much info I'd been getting from this thread when it wasn't there due to the forum being down.

 

[GregR]

One killed as blasts rock Russia base in Crimea, Kyiv not taking responsibility

One person was killed on Tuesday when a Russian air base near seaside resorts in the annexed Crimean peninsula was rocked by blasts that Moscow said were detonations of stored ammunition, not the result of any attack.

www.reuters.com

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - One person was killed on Tuesday when a Russian air base near seaside resorts in the annexed Crimean peninsula was rocked by blasts that Moscow said were detonations of stored ammunition, not the result of any attack.

Witnesses said they had heard at least 12 explosions around 3:20 p.m. local time (1220 GMT) from the Saky air base near Novofedorivka on the west coast of the peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and used in February as one of the launchpads for its invasion.


Crimea, a holiday destination for many Russians, has so far been spared the bombardment and artillery combat that other areas of eastern and southern Ukraine have suffered.

Russia's defence ministry was adamant the "detonation of several aviation ammunition stores" had caused an explosion, and initially said no one had been harmed. It said there had been no attack and no aviation equipment had been damaged.

Asked whether Ukraine was taking responsibility for the blasts, presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak told the Dozhd online television channel: "Of course not. What do we have to do with this?"

Moscow could accuse Kyiv of crossing a red line if Ukraine were to acknowledge it had attacked territory that Russia sees as its own.

 

[themeistersinger]

The Inexorable Crowbar of Geography

The Inexorable Crowbar of Geography - The American Conservative

It is time for Americans to put maps and encyclopedias back on their tables.

www.theamericanconservative.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Alright boys and girls, we are going to to have a Truck - Train logistical & Intel thread starting with this incredibly silly Russian operational security fail in the picture below, (h/t @ChrisO_wiki
). Which confirms a operational pattern prediction of mine in May 2022.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1554931707257786368

 

[themeistersinger]

The skillful use of anti-ship missiles by forces & the increasing deliveries of long-range precision strike platforms such as #M142 HIMARS/M270 #MLRS has forced the Russians to adopt new ways to protect critical infrastructure 1/n

https://twitter.com/polaris_gb/status/1554918852848340993

 

[themeistersinger]

The Russian state is now panicking as it realises that Germany is serious about cutting off Russian gas and oil.

They are also panicking as sanctions start to drive the economic pain deeper and deeper, eroding the domestic political position of Putin's authoritarian regime.

https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1554820905590726656

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian state TV: North Korea offering Kremlin 100,000 ‘volunteers’

Russian state TV: North Korea offering Kremlin 100,000 ‘volunteers’

The pariah state’s offer of military assistance could not be immediately verified, but it was seized upon by Russian defense pundit Igor Korotchenko.

nypost.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Kherson Bridges – radar, analysis and imagery

Kherson Bridges – radar, analysis and imagery

I’ve been following the developments around Kherson, Ukraine, with interest over the last week or so. Particularly the attempts by the Russian forces to protect two bridges from attack after …

planesandstuff.wordpress.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War. Week 21. New Weapons Change the Battlefield in Ukraine's Favor but Are They Stronger Than European Cowardice and Stupidity?

https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/07/26/putins-war-week-21-new-weapons-change-the-battlefield-in-ukraines-favor-but-are-they-stronger-than-european-cowardice-and-stupidity-n601102

 

[themeistersinger]

The 80th airborne assault brigade is bombing Russians who have come to pick up a dead cow.

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1556199393329651712

From the looks of it the cow absorbed some of the shrapnel allowing some of the soldiers to escape injury

 

[themeistersinger]

In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether there may be a pending shift in the initiative in #Ukraine. 1/25

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whethe...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Jomini of the West - assessment on 8/2

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive. #UkraineRussianWar

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1554647160804851712

 

[themeistersinger]

Sunday update--again little map change, but important shift to the south and west (Kherson) and what that means. Ukraine and the strategy of telegraphing intentions (or not).

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1556177332217548801

 

[themeistersinger]

Well, for whatever reason the Ukrainians have been pushing the narrative of a counteroffensive in Kherson for weeks--and they are not stopping.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1555615843672793088

 

[themeistersinger]

Battle to end the war: Ukraine's chance to get edge over Russia

Battle to end the war: Ukraine's chance to get edge over Russia

The third phase of Russia's war on Ukraine is coming. The first, the Kremlin's brazen blitzkrieg in late February that culminated in the Battle of Kyiv, failed. The months-long Battle of Donbas in Ukraine’s east making up the second phase

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Four (updated) ways the war in Ukraine might end

Four (updated) ways the war in Ukraine might end

Four months later, Scowcroft Center experts reexamine their forecasts and suggest how to amend them in light of recent developments.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

The visa issue may be complicated. 1. I think security concerns of Finland and even more so, Baltics, are legitimate. Let's be honest, Russia never really recognised independence of the latter. Furthermore, Baltic nations are very much dehumanised in the Russian public discourse

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1556692603890012161

 

[themeistersinger]

Exclusive: Russia starts stripping jetliners for parts as sanctions bite

Exclusive: Russia starts stripping jetliners for parts as sanctions bite

Russian airlines, including state-controlled Aeroflot , are stripping jetliners to secure spare parts they can no longer buy abroad because of Western sanctions, four industry sources told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

 

[themeistersinger]

How did the US mount AGM-88 HARM missiles onto Ukrainian fighters... well, I think I know how. A short thread :

AGM-88B/C-1/D missiles have three operation modes:

• Self-Protect (SP)
• Target Of Opportunity (TOO)
• Pre-Briefed (PB)

1/n

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865

 

[themeistersinger]

One killed as blasts rock Russia base in Crimea, Kyiv not taking responsibility

One person was killed on Tuesday when a Russian air base near seaside resorts in the annexed Crimean peninsula was rocked by blasts that Moscow said were detonations of stored ammunition, not the result of any attack.

www.reuters.com

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - One person was killed on Tuesday when a Russian air base near seaside resorts in the annexed Crimean peninsula was rocked by blasts that Moscow said were detonations of stored ammunition, not the result of any attack.

Witnesses said they had heard at least 12 explosions around 3:20 p.m. local time (1220 GMT) from the Saky air base near Novofedorivka on the west coast of the peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and used in February as one of the launchpads for its invasion.


Crimea, a holiday destination for many Russians, has so far been spared the bombardment and artillery combat that other areas of eastern and southern Ukraine have suffered.

Russia's defence ministry was adamant the "detonation of several aviation ammunition stores" had caused an explosion, and initially said no one had been harmed. It said there had been no attack and no aviation equipment had been damaged.

Asked whether Ukraine was taking responsibility for the blasts, presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak told the Dozhd online television channel: "Of course not. What do we have to do with this?"

Moscow could accuse Kyiv of crossing a red line if Ukraine were to acknowledge it had attacked territory that Russia sees as its own.

Reportedly footage of a destroyed Russian Su-24 aircraft at the Saki Airbase. https://t.me/milinfolive/88

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557082387087081473

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557061408340287490

Video of the explosions at Saki Airbase in Crimea. https://t.me/shot_shot/42503

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556996656079507456

 

[themeistersinger]

300m away from the military airfield in Crimea. Seems like no chance that a single plane remained intact. The impact of the yesterday's explosion is no less than the destruction of the cruiser Moskva. Dozens of warplanes will no longer be able to drop bombs and missiles on us

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557248601591521280?cxt=HHwWgICxzcfWupwrAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Explosions in Crimea were caused by "cigarettes dropped in dangerous places"

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1557286765689446401

 

[themeistersinger]

Obviously everyone is speculating what Ukrainian weapon was responsible for the attack on Novofedorivka airbase in temporarily occupied Crimea - but in a very real way, it doesn't matter WHAT it was - it simply matters the Ukrainians now have this capability.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1557036177953259526

 

[themeistersinger]

For all of you wondering why ATACMS are not going to be sent, it comes back to procurement & production concerns. Again. Conventional Warfare is a wholly different ballgame than low intensity conflicts & counter insurgencies.

https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/status/1557138879823728640

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine’s long-awaited southern counteroffensive begins with a bang in Crimea

Ukraine’s long-awaited southern counteroffensive begins with a bang in Crimea

While careful not to confirm — or deny — that Ukrainian forces were responsible for the explosions that rocked a Russian airbase, two government officials said the blast marks the start of a major …

www.politico.eu

 

[themeistersinger]

Flawed Amnesty report risks enabling more Russian war crimes in Ukraine

Flawed Amnesty report risks enabling more Russian war crimes in Ukraine

Amnesty International's recent report accusing Ukraine of endangering civilian lives has sparked a wave of international criticism and is being actively used by the Kremlin to justify Russian bombing of civilian targets.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

A Story in Pictures: All of the Weapons America Has Given Ukraine to Fight Russia

A Story in Pictures: All of the Weapons America Has Given Ukraine to Fight Russia

The Biden Administration has given you Ukraine what amount to tens of billions of dollars in military aid and training to fight Russia.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

First unrectified images of Saki Air Base in Crimea via
@planet
following yesterday's multiple explosions. There's clearly been a massive fire across the base following whatever happened there:

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576

It's looking like a devastating blow to Russian forces

 

[themeistersinger]

Live scenes of OSINT twitter accounts that follow Russia and Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1557445403255136259

 

[themeistersinger]

Very interesting theory:

Just imagining some hotshot pilot returning to base and popping flares on a fly-by accidentally burning his base to the ground. Can imagine it more than some new unseen Ukrainian super long-range weapon that can get past Russian AD. Just sayin'.

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1557456548489621504

 

[themeistersinger]

‘We Need to Get Out of Here’: Fear Grips Annexed Crimea After Airbase Attack

‘We Need to Get Out of Here’: Fear Grips Annexed Crimea After Airbase Attack - The Moscow Times

"Many vacationers were trying to find shelter — some people were hiding behind the trees, children were crying," said one eyewitness.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[bcat01]

Video warning Russians to leave Crimea. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

 

[themeistersinger]

Finally we have imagery of Saki Airbase. Serious losses for Russian aviation. At least 3 Su-30s and 6 Su-24s have been destroyed. Imagery isn't good enough to confirm, but possibly 2 additional Su-24s and 3 additional Su-30s destroyed. Between 9-14 aircraft destroyed.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1557446834272014336

 

[themeistersinger]

There is no closer building (A) the beam can have come from than 360 meters away. Throwing that beam so far, takes a lot of force. Imagine the damage up there at the planes.

https://twitter.com/Wilkmans/status/1557118888273387522

At the end of the video below is a car with a massive beam blasted through it - that's what the above tweet is referring to.

Incredible amounts of damage at Novofedorivka airbase in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1557110780180447235

 

[themeistersinger]

link in the last tweet. Russian 64th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade became infamous for the war crimes committed by its soldiers in Bucha. I’ve learned that after heavy fighting on the Izyum and Slavyansk axes, the brigade nearly ceased to exist.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1557380744900743168

 

[themeistersinger]

Defending democracy: Parameters of Western resolve may soon be tested

Defending democracy: Parameters of Western resolve may soon be tested

Australia will need to do much more to both deter the chance of the “two war” scenario, but also be ready to fight, and win, if it does eventuate.

www.smh.com.au

 

[themeistersinger]

Occupied Ukrainian plant becomes epicenter of Russia’s nuclear blackmail

Occupied Ukrainian plant becomes epicenter of Russia’s nuclear blackmail

Anticipating a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the country’s south, Russia is turning the six-reactor Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar into a ticking time bomb. Repeated Russian shelling from within the plant’s territory, causing one of the reactors to shut

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia, Ukraine Trade Blame in Fresh Strike on Nuclear Plant

Russia, Ukraine Trade Blame in Fresh Strike on Nuclear Plant - The Moscow Times

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Thursday of shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian-controlled southern Ukraine ahead of an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to address global concerns over the facility.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Latvian Parliament Declares Russia ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’

Latvian Parliament Declares Russia ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’ - The Moscow Times

The parliament urged the EU to stop issuing tourist visas for Russian and Belarusian citizens and to cut down on entry visas in general.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Novofedorivka – Saki Air base attack satellite imagery – The aftermath

Novofedorivka – Saki Air base attack satellite imagery – The aftermath

It took a long time in coming, but imagery is available of the destruction caused at Saki (Saky) air base in Crimea. Unfortunately, being at real work has delayed this analysis, but it’s wort…

planesandstuff.wordpress.com