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Tom Brady moving forward (1 Viewer)

JMJ

JMJ

Footballguy
What are people expecting from him moving forward?

Positives:

- He has Gronk back

- He has pedigree - he's been a set it and forget it fantasy stud for a decade

- His schedule is not easy, but certainly not tough

- He should be getting Amendola back (but he'll likely be back out 1.5 games after returning)

- We've seen him do more with less in the past

Negatives

- He has looked God awful

- I mean really, really awful

Thoughts?

 
Are owners starting him at home against Miami? Or was last week the straw that finally broke the Carmel's back and you're going with a backup or waiver wire option?

 
I traded him before last week for RGIII. Another owner must have thought/hoped that with Gronk coming back, Brady would rebound. He still might, but I haven't liked his performance so far & I was willing to bet on RGIII getting better as he got more confident in his knee. I might end up being wrong, but Brady hasn't looked like Brady this year, not to me at least.

 
Just traded Newton for Brady in my money league. Brady is going to get his weapons back and on the same page. Going forward I think we see the normal Brady show back up.

 
Haven't started him since week 3, values probably lowest it will be for the rest of the season so no reason to trade, expecting his production to steadily increase as the season continues.

 
Bayhawks said:
I traded him before last week for RGIII. Another owner must have thought/hoped that with Gronk coming back, Brady would rebound. He still might, but I haven't liked his performance so far & I was willing to bet on RGIII getting better as he got more confident in his knee. I might end up being wrong, but Brady hasn't looked like Brady this year, not to me at least.
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I'm in a similar situation. To prevent this from becoming an Assistant Coach thread, I won't use player names but I'm in 1st place in my league as it stands currently, solid squad all throughout, and this is in spite of Brady giving me next to nothing. My team is a stud QB away from dominance and I have the opportunity to trade Brady + a STUD keeper for next year (keep 2 league - player must have been drafted 5th rd or later) for a guy with a top 3 QB (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) who's team has fell apart and he's out of it already and playing for next year.

While I would hate to lose the stud keeper - barring injury I'd be the by far favorite for the title this year. I just can't shake the feeling however that Brady is going to turn it around. Maybe it is because I am a Jets fan and his every-year-dominance is burned in my brain like a scar, but despite how awful he's playing, I can't help but feel the second I trade him he's going to perform neck-and-neck with the QB I just got in return and I'm out the keeper for no reason.

 
JMJ said:
Bayhawks said:
I traded him before last week for RGIII. Another owner must have thought/hoped that with Gronk coming back, Brady would rebound. He still might, but I haven't liked his performance so far & I was willing to bet on RGIII getting better as he got more confident in his knee. I might end up being wrong, but Brady hasn't looked like Brady this year, not to me at least.
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I'm in a similar situation. To prevent this from becoming an Assistant Coach thread, I won't use player names but I'm in 1st place in my league as it stands currently, solid squad all throughout, and this is in spite of Brady giving me next to nothing. My team is a stud QB away from dominance and I have the opportunity to trade Brady + a STUD keeper for next year (keep 2 league - player must have been drafted 5th rd or later) for a guy with a top 3 QB (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) who's team has fell apart and he's out of it already and playing for next year.

While I would hate to lose the stud keeper - barring injury I'd be the by far favorite for the title this year. I just can't shake the feeling however that Brady is going to turn it around. Maybe it is because I am a Jets fan and his every-year-dominance is burned in my brain like a scar, but despite how awful he's playing, I can't help but feel the second I trade him he's going to perform neck-and-neck with the QB I just got in return and I'm out the keeper for no reason.
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I felt the same way when I made my trade, and (especially after Gronk was cleared), I was thinking I'd regret the move. His game on Sunday reassured me though. Something seems to be off this year. Perhaps it is the unfamiliarity with all the new receivers, but he isn't as accurate as he has been. I think he is expecting the recievers to be in a certain spot, make their cuts/breaks at a certain time, isn't familiar with their speed, etc. Whatever it is, he isn't the QB he used to be. Perhaps that will change, but I wasn't confident enough to stick with him.

 
Bayhawks said:
I traded him before last week for RGIII. Another owner must have thought/hoped that with Gronk coming back, Brady would rebound. He still might, but I haven't liked his performance so far & I was willing to bet on RGIII getting better as he got more confident in his knee. I might end up being wrong, but Brady hasn't looked like Brady this year, not to me at least.
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Great trade for you, I've been shopping him for the last 3 weeks without a single bite... The guy in this thread http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?s=3745e2d119227da1334a246e8421d28e&showtopic=696212 recommending sitting RG3 this week. Honestly, I think RG3 can go off for 40 against Den, worst advice of all time - Instantly had to stop reading!

 
Personally I just traded Mike Wallace for Phillip Rivers - Couldn't be happier... Rivers on a bye this week, but he is my unquestioned starter over Brady moving forward... Couldn't agree with the OP more, Brady just looks AWFUL this year. Like WTF is going on with him? Doesn't look like TB one bit.

 
I honestly have no clue what to think. Last 2 weeks considered benching him for Dalton, but assumed that as soon as I benched Brady, he would go off. Regretted it, obviously. Each week, I get closer and closer.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Personally I just traded Mike Wallace for Phillip Rivers - Couldn't be happier... Rivers on a bye this week, but he is my unquestioned starter over Brady moving forward... Couldn't agree with the OP more, Brady just looks AWFUL this year. Like WTF is going on with him? Doesn't look like TB one bit.
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He is awful.

 
He's my backup QB only starting this week due to Rivers' bye, but I am hoping the return of Vereen helps as well.

I haven't watched all of their games, but one major difference in this offense is their diminished ability to go no huddle to keep the defense from substituting personnel. Versatility was the key to this in prior years - and the lack of Hernandez this year makes this a lot harder. I was really high on Vereen coming into this year due to my perception that he could be the one to step into that role, and week one seemed to go according to plan. It may be wishful thinking, but his return may be the catalyst we're hoping for.

 
Brady has never put up stud fantasy QB numbers without Welker vacuuming in his off target throws. Look at his stats prior to 2007 (pre-Welker).

High was 28 TDs and only topped 4000 yards once.

 
Completion Percentage

01. 63.9

02. 62.1

03. 60.2

04 60.8

05. 63

06. 61.8

07 68.9

09. 65.7

10. 65.9

11. 65.6

12. 63.0

Even with all the weapons last year he was showing a drop back to his pre-Welker days. This years 55.4 is abnormally low, but given their situation it fits.

 
Really sucks owning him this year. You can't drop him, can't trade home for anything - maybe the Gronk owner would give a little extra.

Only thing you can hope for is the pieces that are alowly coming back help him. That only leaves a few weeks of the season though for a guy who was probably drafted in the top 6 or so at his position.

 
The General said:
Really sucks owning him this year. You can't drop him, can't trade home for anything - maybe the Gronk owner would give a little extra.

Only thing you can hope for is the pieces that are alowly coming back help him. That only leaves a few weeks of the season though for a guy who was probably drafted in the top 6 or so at his position.
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I own Gronk and Brady - Just traded for Rivers... Can't give Brady away, no interest from anyone.

 
The General said:
Really sucks owning him this year. You can't drop him, can't trade home for anything - maybe the Gronk owner would give a little extra.

Only thing you can hope for is the pieces that are alowly coming back help him. That only leaves a few weeks of the season though for a guy who was probably drafted in the top 6 or so at his position.
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Why? Unless you're in a 2QB league, he should be on the waiver wire.

 
Cliff Clavin said:
The General said:
Really sucks owning him this year. You can't drop him, can't trade home for anything - maybe the Gronk owner would give a little extra.

Only thing you can hope for is the pieces that are alowly coming back help him. That only leaves a few weeks of the season though for a guy who was probably drafted in the top 6 or so at his position.
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Why? Unless you're in a 2QB league, he should be on the waiver wire.
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I can't bring myself to cut the guy because of the history of success. He really has been awful fantasy wise though this year, been getting worse too.

 
The General said:
Cliff Clavin said:
The General said:
Really sucks owning him this year. You can't drop him, can't trade home for anything - maybe the Gronk owner would give a little extra.

Only thing you can hope for is the pieces that are alowly coming back help him. That only leaves a few weeks of the season though for a guy who was probably drafted in the top 6 or so at his position.
Click to expand...
Why? Unless you're in a 2QB league, he should be on the waiver wire.
Click to expand...
I can't bring myself to cut the guy because of the history of success. He really has been awful fantasy wise though this year, been getting worse too.
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The only reason to roster him in redraft is that he plays the Dolphins twice (including week 14) and the Broncos.

 
Looks like he is getting one more start from me. I will outright cut him if he craps the bed against the Dolphins at home this weekend.

 
The Duff Man said:
Brady has never put up stud fantasy QB numbers without Welker vacuuming in his off target throws. Look at his stats prior to 2007 (pre-Welker).

High was 28 TDs and only topped 4000 yards once.
Click to expand...
And people still blame Welker for that play in that Super Bowl. Clearly, Welker was wide open and Brady made an awful pass...

 
He is just plain ol scary at this point...pretty soon I might have to start T. Pryor over him on a weekly basis, or maybe Locker. Sad state of affairs this has become.

 
Huge Patriots homer here, I have watched every game this year. If you haven't watched many Patriots games, and have only read through the boxscores/watched highlights- here's a few things that I have seen throughout the season:

- Brady can't throw the deep ball with any consistency. There have been at least 5-6 times this year where he overthrew a completely open receiver downfield, maybe more. Not because of pressure, he just overthrew the ball. Most of these would have been TD's.

- He consistently forces the ball into a single receiver, whether they are open or not. Edelman, Amendola when he was healthy, and now Gronk last game. In all honesty, he was relying on Welker too much the past couple of seasons as a security blanket, and Welker usually bailed him out due to his ability to find an opening so often. Now that Welker is gone, he is still depending too much on a single target every game, even though most of these guys can't get the separation that Welker got.

- He is throwing the ball way too hard in situations where it is not warranted. Some of the drops this year are because of the velocity on balls that could probably use some more finesse on the throws.

All that said, I think he has hit his low point of the season. If Amendola can stay on the field and Gronk doesn't re-injure himself and doesn't continue to favor his arm, Brady's numbers will improve. If Amendola, Edelman, Gronk, and Thompkins/Dobson (who have made massive strides over the past few games) are all on the field at the same time, and the O-LIne does it's job, there's no reason he shouldn't produce top-10 numbers over the rest of the season. He's definitely a solid candidate for a buy low at this point, unless you already have a sure thing at QB.

 
I have Cam. Even though it's a Thursday night game, I think I'm rolling with him tonight over Brady. I just can't take it anymore. So if Brady goes off and has a monster game, you're welcome.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I honestly have no clue what to think. Last 2 weeks considered benching him for Dalton, but assumed that as soon as I benched Brady, he would go off. Regretted it, obviously. Each week, I get closer and closer.
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Not fully decided yet, but as of now, I've moved Dalton into the starting position.

I know this is the update that the whole board has been waiting for.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Long Ball Larry said:
I honestly have no clue what to think. Last 2 weeks considered benching him for Dalton, but assumed that as soon as I benched Brady, he would go off. Regretted it, obviously. Each week, I get closer and closer.
Click to expand...
Not fully decided yet, but as of now, I've moved Dalton into the starting position.

I know this is the update that the whole board has been waiting for.
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LOL - I'll be checking this thread Sunday at 12:59 waiting final confirmation.

 
Due to bye coverage, I can't even pick up another QB until after this week. Pryor and Locker might start for me going forward if Brady doesn't start to produce average or better numbers...4 points from a QB is ridiculous!!!

 
LargeMouthBass said:
The Duff Man said:
Brady has never put up stud fantasy QB numbers without Welker vacuuming in his off target throws. Look at his stats prior to 2007 (pre-Welker).

High was 28 TDs and only topped 4000 yards once.
Click to expand...
And people still blame Welker for that play in that Super Bowl. Clearly, Welker was wide open and Brady made an awful pass...
Click to expand...
It was a different league back then. He was still a qb1 every year and yes Welker should have caught that.

 
msudaisy26 said:
LargeMouthBass said:
The Duff Man said:
Brady has never put up stud fantasy QB numbers without Welker vacuuming in his off target throws. Look at his stats prior to 2007 (pre-Welker).

High was 28 TDs and only topped 4000 yards once.
Click to expand...
And people still blame Welker for that play in that Super Bowl. Clearly, Welker was wide open and Brady made an awful pass...
Click to expand...
It was a different league back then. He was still a qb1 every year and yes Welker should have caught that.
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Sure he should have. That doesn't mean Brady is without blame. We might never know what exactly was expected out of each guy on that play. Maybe Welker ran slow because he was looking back which caused him to be behind the route. Maybe Brady threw the ball to his wrong shoulder. I do know that if Welker ran the route correctly, that pass was way too hot and high for him to make a good play on it. It took Welker completely outstretch, jumping 2.5 feet in the air twisting the opposite direction just to get his hands on the ball. Most WRs wouldn't have even come that close, but people say it was a clear mistake by Welker. What?

I think a 20 yard back shoulder rope is ill-advised for a drive/game saving play, and it was as if Brady went to the line knowing he was going to throw to Welker the entire time, which isn't Brady's typical self.

And let's not forget that was 2nd down. The next play Brady had all the time in the world to throw, and he still insisted on throwing deep again (20 yards, again) when he only needed 11 yards (he really only needed 8 to get Gostkowski to his FG range), and it was a throw that got Branch ran over as soon as the ball arrived. Branch got his hands on the ball, why does no one criticize him? Brady, with unlimited time and being the best triggerman in the NFL should have been able to keep that drive going.

 
Give Brady a healthy Gronk, Amendola and Vereen, which could happen in the next few weeks and I'd count on solid QB1 numbers. I'm trying to deal for him in all leagues. Ultimate buy low guy right now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Workhorse said:
Give Brady a healthy Gronk, Amendola and Vereen, which could happen in the next few weeks and I'd count on solid QB1 numbers. I'm trying to deal for him in all leagues. Ultimate buy low guy right now.
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I'd trade you for one of my handcuffs - Bryce Brown, j. Bell... If you had both I would try and play hardball but at the end of the day just take one of them.

Thats about how low you can buy him for.

 
msudaisy26 said:
LargeMouthBass said:
The Duff Man said:
Brady has never put up stud fantasy QB numbers without Welker vacuuming in his off target throws. Look at his stats prior to 2007 (pre-Welker).

High was 28 TDs and only topped 4000 yards once.
Click to expand...
And people still blame Welker for that play in that Super Bowl. Clearly, Welker was wide open and Brady made an awful pass...
Click to expand...
It was a different league back then. He was still a qb1 every year and yes Welker should have caught that.
Click to expand...
C'mon Daisy, watch the replay. Welker was wide open. It was a bad throw. 80% on Brady, 20% Welker.

Anyway, I'm still bitter about that play since I lost so much money from that game due to that play...

 
I think this week's game against Miami will be the best gauge yet of Brady's value going forward.

- Gronk back

- Amendola likely back

- Running game performing at decent level

- Rookie WR's with several weeks now under their belt plus pressure off w/ Gronk and Amendola drawing DEF attention

- Playing at home

- Miami DEF is solid and indicative of ROS schedule

If Brady can't produce in these conditions then it's hard to believe he will resume QB1 status anytime soon. Maybe after the bye but that would be a long shot.

 
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