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Week 07 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
This is where we ask questions and offer help. And thank you to all of the posters who come here to offer that help.

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View this as an exercise to help focus your thoughts about teams in general. Players you own may not be involved in these WDIS questions but certainly you will own players on many of these teams. Analyzing other players will help you identify things you may have otherwise not considered.

Let's kick off Week 7!
 
I always post results of my head-2-head choices for the previous week and keep a season long tally. I compare those results to the results if I used a coin toss instead.

I don't keep a tally when asked to choose between more than two players because I'm not sure how to score it and don't want to get into fractions to keep the tally.

Week 5:
I went 16-14-2 in my calls and the coin toss edged me out with 14-16-2

Banner week in the Chakameister's household!

On the season I am: 119-99-11 and the coin toss is 105-113-11

On to Week 7
 
I will start off but I need to see what develops, if anything, with Kenyan Drake & Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines.

PPR, Super-Flex
Goff, Lamar, D'Andre, James Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown & Courtland Sutton are starting.

I need a flex AND I need to decide who to drop to pick up a defense (I don't want to drop PHI D):

Kenyan Drake vs CLE
Deon Jackson @ TEN
K.Herbert @ NEP
Jamaal Williams @ DAL
Doubs @ WAS
C.Samuel v GB

I imagine Jamaal Williams is the best flex play, but that means I am starting four Lions including both RBs.

I think C.Samuel may make the most sense to drop for a defense.
 
Which defense should I be targeting?

SEA @ LAC
NYJ @ DEN
ARI V NOS
KC @ SF
LVR V HOU
TEN V IND
NYG @ JAC
 
I will start off but I need to see what develops, if anything, with Kenyan Drake & Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines.

PPR, Super-Flex
Goff, Lamar, D'Andre, James Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown & Courtland Sutton are starting.

I need a flex AND I need to decide who to drop to pick up a defense (I don't want to drop PHI D):

Kenyan Drake vs CLE
Deon Jackson @ TEN
K.Herbert @ NEP
Jamaal Williams @ DAL
Doubs @ WAS
C.Samuel v GB

I imagine Jamaal Williams is the best flex play, but that means I am starting four Lions including both RBs.

I think C.Samuel may make the most sense to drop for a defense.

Have to say, with how the Browns defend the run, Drake seems to be a must-start assuming he is going to get the majority of carries. However, don't have any insight as to whether he will or not.
 
I think C.Samuel may make the most sense to drop for a defense.
C Samuel is a good drop candidate.

Coming off a 2/6/0 week, a QB change from 1 dud to another dud, all they hype from week 2 has evaporated and I suspect he is not high on anyone's add list if you wanted to scoop him back up next week after your bye week defense is dropped.
 
Going to ask this question now and again when I get some statuses on some players

Dillon v Wash
Wan Dale v Jags
 
Need Josh Allen fill-in, 4/pass TD, 1/25 pass yards

Rodgers @ Washington
Mariota @ Bungles
Jones @ Jaguars

Probably not considering Daniel, currently have Rodgers in but Mariota seems fairly tempting
 
One more given it's a Thursday question, full PPR, start Chris Olave assuming he clears concussion protocol @ Cardinals ahead of any of the following:

ARSB @ Cowboys
Lockett @ Clippers
Evans @ Panthers
 
STANDARD LEAGUE:

Need bye QB for Allen: Mariota, Zappe (sounds like Mac will be back in tho), Ryan, Winston, Dalton or Brisset?
Leaning Ryan as he had a decent game against Titans in Week 4 -- also

Need 2 here (1 WR and 1 flex ):
London @ Bengals
Cooks @ Raiders
Eno vs Saints
Pollard vs Lions

also --get Gus Edwards or Kyren Williams ? I have 2 IR spots to use so not talking up bench space.
 
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O.K here we go. FFPC scoring:

Team A: Trust Dak vs Det. if he plays or
D.Carr vs Hou

Team B: Need TWO flexes:
T.Etienne vs NYG
M.Gordon vs NYJ
E.Benjamin vs N.O.
H.Renfro vs Hou
B.Aiyuk vs KC

Team C: Need a QB:
J.Goff @ Dall
D.Jones @ Jax
 
STANDARD LEAGUE:

Need bye QB for Allen: Mariota, Zappe (sounds like Mac will be back in tho), Ryan, Winston, Dalton or Brisset?
Leaning Ryan as he had a decent game against Titans in Week 4 -- also

Need 2 here (1 WR and 1 flex ):
London @ Bengals
Cooks @ Raiders
Eno vs Saints
Pollard vs Lions

also --get Gus Edwards or Kyren Williams ?

Mariota
Pollard, Eno assuming Conner is inactive, otherwise Cooks
No

O.K here we go. FFPC scoring:

Team A: Trust Dak vs Det. if he plays or
D.Carr vs Hou

Team B: Need TWO flexes:
T.Etienne vs NYG
M.Gordon vs NYJ
E.Benjamin vs N.O.
H.Renfro vs Hou
B.Aiyuk vs KC

Team C: Need a QB:
J.Goff @ Dall
D.Jones @ Jax

Liking Carr this week
Eno if he's got the backfield to himself, probably Etienne as well, Aiyuk if Conner plays
Similar spot, I have Goff and am standing pat with Jones available
 
Need Josh Allen fill-in, 4/pass TD, 1/25 pass yards

Rodgers @ Washington
Mariota @ Bungles
Jones @ Jaguars

Probably not considering Daniel, currently have Rodgers in but Mariota seems fairly tempting
These are tough calls. Heart wants to say Rodgers but the Packers aren't very good this season. I assume that will turn around, and Rodgers throws the ball 9x more per game than Jones and 12x more/game than Mariota. However he's been mediocre in both yardage & TDs. His TD% (4.3) is just barely above his career low (4.2 in 2018), his Y/A (6.7) is tied for his career low, his Y/C (10) is a career low and his sack % (6.7) hasn't been this high since 2018. Dude misses Davante far more than we ever suspected. The Commodores pass D is not really worse than Jax & Cin but they are giving up about 3 more points/game. And you have to be careful because Washington is getting after the QB with 19 sacks.

Mariota is maybe a little more interesting because the Falcons are actually the 8th highest scoring team in the NFL (~24 ppg). That's about 3 more than the Giants and 6 more than the Pack. I hate his low volume but he's running for around 34 ypg and has 3 rush TDs. His scoring efficiency metrics are almost off the charts, which I don't love but after six games it's tough to argue against. It translates to him being a mid QB2 putting up about 1.5 ppg more than Rodgers and 0.7 more than Jones. It's not an ideal matchup but the Bengals don't appear to be the team we thought they might be coming into this season and they can still score enough to keep the pressure on Atlanta to score.

Everything I think about Mariota also applies to Jones but he's been a little lesser overall, where Jones is notably superior. He has except in turnovers where Jones has two interceptions and two fumbles (both lost). Mariota has four interceptions and has fumbled seven times (3 lost). Now Mariota only has two fumbles (both recovered by the Falcons) over his last three games so maybe he's figured it out, but it's worth considering if your league penalizes heavily for TOs. Rodgers has three INTs and five fumbles (3 lost).

It's tough to bench Rodgers for either of these guys but I don't want to let history be my sole guide on these decisions. Until the Packers offense shows they are something more than they have been:
Mariota>Jones>Rodgers
 
One more given it's a Thursday question, full PPR, start Chris Olave assuming he clears concussion protocol @ Cardinals ahead of any of the following:

ARSB @ Cowboys
Lockett @ Clippers
Evans @ Panthers
Good problem to have. And after vomiting out my stream of consciousness below I am not sure where to go here.

I imagine we're all holding our breath a little on ARSB and the Lions after the Patriots game. But he still had six targets on a bum ankle and his catch % was on point. I think he will get his usual pre injury target share, which is great in PPR leagues. But I don't know how much he will be able to produce even if he gets 10 targets. 7-50-0 seems like a realistic expectation, with upside of course but how much? The Dallas defense is scary. 4th in pass yards against, 1st in sacks, 3rd in yards/attempt and they give up 1 pass TD per game. They're also 9th in QB completion %. What's even scarier about that is they have, roughly as I didn't adjust for byes, the 24th most pass attempts/game against them. They are very good against the pass.

Tom Brady is not Tom Brady anymore. I think he regrets coming back and has checked out on his team. He currently has the lowest TD% of his entire career (3.2) and since his 2nd year as a starter has only had one season with a lower Y/A than his current 6.7. He's thrown 8 TDs in 6 games, which is okay but nothing special. Evans is always dangerous and probably has the biggest TD upside of this bunch.

Carolina and the Chargers have similar pass defense metrics. The Chargers have given up more pass TDs (11-8) but have more sacks + INTs (21-13). Geno throws a lot less than Brady (31-41 att/game) but 51% of his targets are directed at DK & Lockett (50 & 45 each). It's tougher to discern with the Bucs with all the injuries but the top 4 targeted players in TB have between 31-36 targets. With Godwin back and Gage still around (Julio was DNP today) there is a smaller pie. In the three games since Godwin returned Evans has 22 targets. 7 targets is still nice, Tyler Lockett only gets 7.5/game and both have 4 target floors. ARSB OTOH probably doesn't see less than 8 targets.

Yeah, I'm stumped.

My gut tells me to go with the most likely volume but it also says there are TDs to be had in Carolina:
Evans>ARSB>Lockett
 
STANDARD LEAGUE:

Need bye QB for Allen: Mariota, Zappe (sounds like Mac will be back in tho), Ryan, Winston, Dalton or Brisset?
Leaning Ryan as he had a decent game against Titans in Week 4 -- also

Need 2 here (1 WR and 1 flex ):
London @ Bengals
Cooks @ Raiders
Eno vs Saints
Pollard vs Lions

also --get Gus Edwards or Kyren Williams ? I have 2 IR spots to use so not talking up bench space.
I like Mariota a bit this week but, man the Titans have been torched by everyone except Daniel Jones (Allen, Carr, Ryan & Wentz). Even with one fewer game they have still given up the 2nd most TDs and 24th most yards in the NFL. Maybe they fixed things during the bye, but the Colts look to have found their passing mojo last week too.

Ryan>Mariotta>the rest

I think Tony Pollard is an auto-start with the Lions coming to town.

London seems to have cooled off since his nice start and I am a bit hesitant to trust him. The Falcons seem to be a solid team for points but the distribution is very much all over the map.

Cooks has not been the volume monster over the last three games we have come to expect over the last few seasons but, I like his matchup more than London's. The Raiders are tied for 28th in TDs (11) and that includes a bye week, they don't make a lot of INTs and outside of Maxx Crosby they don't get after the QB a ton.

Pollard>Cooks>London
 
O.K here we go. FFPC scoring:

Team A: Trust Dak vs Det. if he plays or
D.Carr vs Hou

Team B: Need TWO flexes:
T.Etienne vs NYG
M.Gordon vs NYJ
E.Benjamin vs N.O.
H.Renfro vs Hou
B.Aiyuk vs KC

Team C: Need a QB:
J.Goff @ Dall
D.Jones @ Jax
The QBs are a bit of a coin toss. I expect to see a continued emphasis on Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. I think Carr caps at 250 and 1.75 TDs just like he does every week. Dude is a metronome. He has upside of course but I think McDaniels doesn't want to play that type of game so unlocking his upside has barriers.

Dak is coming off the injury but, man it's the Lions. Did they get better? Is Dak hurt (all indications are he may have been able to play last week so I think he's going to be okay this week) Is Dak going to press too much, trying to prove he's the guy in Dallas? Both possibilities. But, I think you play against the Lions until we are show otherwise on the field.

Dak>Carr

Cant trust Melvin or Renfrow ATM.

Honestly I think it's a pretty easy choice here with Aiyuk & Etienne. Both have shown to be playmakers and reliable for their teams and they both have matchups that aren't terrible. Benjamin may be locked into the most volume and I know some people are very high on him, even suggesting he could take the job. He's only a second year player so, it's possible particularly as I think Conner is very pedestrian. But Benjamin is on the small side and hasn't shown very much in his limited action. Etienne OTOH looks like a legit talent whenever he has the ball. He has been so close to housing several long TDs. His downside is very obvious due to his timeshare with Robinson but...I think we are seeing an increase in trust from the coaching staff for Etienne.

Aiyuk>Etienne>Benjamin

Tough call on the last QB choice.
I really, really want to say Goff. But that Cowboys D is legit scary and much better than Jacksonville's by a good margin. Goff has that 4 TD upside but, even though he has done it in 2 of 5 games, I don't think that is really the nature of the Lions offense and even though they have that potential, unlocking it against the Cowboys is a tall order. Jones doesn't have a ton of volume but he has been pretty efficient and will get you almost 40 yards rushing/game.

Yeah, the Dallas D is scaring me ATM:
Jones>Goff
 
I've got two decisions this week. Have made the call in my mind but throw them out here for your take and general entertainment

1. Full PPR
Sutton w/hobbled (hamstring/shoulder) and vision impaired Russell Wilson vs. Jets D and Sauce Gardner
OR
M Pittman w/Dr. Jekyll/Mr Matt Ryan vs. Tenn secondary. Indy may also return to the 42 run/12 pass game script with the return of JT. So there is that.

2. Half PPR
Geno Smith vs. Chargers D
OR
Trevor Lawrence vs. NY Football Giants D
 
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12-team PPR flex:
• AJ Dillon
• Njoku

Did not think this would be a serious consideration earlier this season, yet here we are.
 
I've got two decisions this week. Have made the call in my mind but throw them out here for your take and general entertainment

1. Full PPR
Sutton w/hobbled (hamstring/shoulder) and vision impaired Russell Wilson vs. Jets D and Sauce Gardner
OR
M Pittman w/Dr. Jekyll/Mr Matt Ryan vs. Tenn secondary. Indy may also return to the 42 run/12 pass game script with the return of JT. So there is that.

2. Half PPR
Geno Smith vs. Chargers D
OR
Trevor Lawrence vs. NY Football Giants D
Tennesse secondary has been terrible and the Colts pass on 60% of their plays when Jonathan Taylor plays a full game (154-104)

Pittman>Sutton

Tougher call on Geno v Lawrence but, Geno has just been better and we're at the point in the season where draft stock no longer matters and we can discount the Chargers & Jaguars more than we can the Giants & Seahawks.

Geno>Lawrence
 
12-team PPR flex:
• AJ Dillon
• Njoku

Did not think this would be a serious consideration earlier this season, yet here we are.
It's crazy, isn't it? And future reference please post the matchups too.

I think both are not likely TD candidates so it really comes down to volume. It looks like maybe week 5 was an aberration for AJ Dillon's usage. So I think for that reason, and that reason alone, I favor Dillon. I will take a probable 15 opportunities vs a possible 7 opportunities.

No you can make an argument about game scripts, and Baltimore's defense and high scoring nature, and I'm good with that. If you go that route I may favor Njoku but, remember Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh. Literally 4 of 5 starters in Pittsburgh's secondary were out, including All-World Minkah Fitzpatrick. Brady should have had a field day. Games very rarely play out how we think they will. I would also counter by saying that, on paper the Green Bay game also seems to favor a ground based approach.

Dillon>Njoku
 
I've got two decisions this week. Have made the call in my mind but throw them out here for your take and general entertainment

1. Full PPR
Sutton w/hobbled (hamstring/shoulder) and vision impaired Russell Wilson vs. Jets D and Sauce Gardner
OR
M Pittman w/Dr. Jekyll/Mr Matt Ryan vs. Tenn secondary. Indy may also return to the 42 run/12 pass game script with the return of JT. So there is that.

2. Half PPR
Geno Smith vs. Chargers D
OR
Trevor Lawrence vs. NY Football Giants D
Tennesse secondary has been terrible and the Colts pass on 60% of their plays when Jonathan Taylor plays a full game (154-104)

Pittman>Sutton

Tougher call on Geno v Lawrence but, Geno has just been better and we're at the point in the season where draft stock no longer matters and we can discount the Chargers & Jaguars more than we can the Giants & Seahawks.

Geno>Lawrence
My thoughts as well. Interesting stat on the Colts R/P ration. Did not know that. Thanks.
 
Could use some thoughts here, always appreciated.

(0.5ppr) Need 3 of these 4:

Mixon v ATL
Breece Hall @ DEN
Kenny Walker @ LAC
Dameon Pierce @ LV

I currently have Pierce on the bench.

Thanks!!
 
Could use some thoughts here, always appreciated.

(0.5ppr) Need 3 of these 4:

Mixon v ATL
Breece Hall @ DEN
Kenny Walker @ LAC
Dameon Pierce @ LV

I currently have Pierce on the bench.

Thanks!!
Oh man, flip a coin. Seriously. You have an embarrassment of riches.

It's so close. For me it comes down to Mixon v Pierce. Mixon gets 5 targets per game so, even though Pierce has 11 targets over his last two suggesting he may be a bigger part of the passing game going forward, I think with your PPR scoring it gives Mixon the edge.

Mixon>Pierce
 
You better get on payroll soon!

.5PPR - need 2
Dillon @ Was
Sutton v NYJ (QB + Def)
London @ Cin
Cooks @ LV

TE.5
Tonyan @ Was
Cheat code Hill @ Ari (both Jameis and Dalton limited)
Schultz v Det

Standard - need 4
D Hop v NO (too early?)
Etienne v Giants
M Milliams v Sea
Lockett @ LAC
N Harris @ Miami (quicksand man)
Hunt @ Bal (NC)

Thx
 
I will start off but I need to see what develops, if anything, with Kenyan Drake & Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines.

PPR, Super-Flex
Goff, Lamar, D'Andre, James Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown & Courtland Sutton are starting.

I need a flex AND I need to decide who to drop to pick up a defense (I don't want to drop PHI D):

Kenyan Drake vs CLE
Deon Jackson @ TEN
K.Herbert @ NEP
Jamaal Williams @ DAL
Doubs @ WAS
C.Samuel v GB

I imagine Jamaal Williams is the best flex play, but that means I am starting four Lions including both RBs.

I think C.Samuel may make the most sense to drop for a defense.

Think you drop Samuel. It’s been a slow downfall for the guy- the rushing attempts were helping his fantasy value. Offense just doesn’t look great- would rather invest in the running game.

i’d start Drake as it appears Dobbins is having some issues again. If not Drake then maybe Doubs because of potential volume and it’s a road game. I like Herbert a lot but I’m not sure he will bust a long one. Could get a garbage time score but basically all boom bust
 
You better get on payroll soon!

.5PPR - need 2
Dillon @ Was
Sutton v NYJ (QB + Def)
London @ Cin
Cooks @ LV

TE.5
Tonyan @ Was
Cheat code Hill @ Ari (both Jameis and Dalton limited)
Schultz v Det

Standard - need 4
D Hop v NO (too early?)
Etienne v Giants
M Milliams v Sea
Lockett @ LAC
N Harris @ Miami (quicksand man)
Hunt @ Bal (NC)

Thx

Think you go London and Cooks here for floor ceiling combo. Dillon has an OK Floor but what’s the ceiling? Also what is Sutton going to do against NYJ DB’s with that offense playing like ****?

I’d probably roll Hill as it’s indoors and Cards at home could Put up some points.

D Hop, Mike Will, Najee, and Hunt in standard. Lockett and Etienne are going to rarely get TD’s it seems. Hunt is always a threat for the goal line.
 
Could use some thoughts here, always appreciated.

(0.5ppr) Need 3 of these 4:

Mixon v ATL
Breece Hall @ DEN
Kenny Walker @ LAC
Dameon Pierce @ LV

I currently have Pierce on the bench.

Thanks!!

I would bench Pierce. At LV is pretty tough and their defense is ok. Denver’s running defense seems to have fallen apart and they keep punting. Mixon is a home favorite with volume. Walker will get volume and is on an ok offense. Think it comes down to Walker vs. Pierce and you can just go with your gut on that one.
 
Goff vs a good Dallas defense

Tua vs Pitt and risk him getting hit hard and removed from the game
I’m starting Tua … only because I NEED to bench Russ “liiiiimited”.

Still. Dallas is a really good D. Especially hungry after that loss to the iggles.

There’s no way in my mind (lions homer) that Goff/Danny Kneecaps get it together enough to make a dent in that Cowboys D.

Tua gives you more points. IMO
 
Could use some thoughts here, always appreciated.

(0.5ppr) Need 3 of these 4:

Mixon v ATL
Breece Hall @ DEN
Kenny Walker @ LAC
Dameon Pierce @ LV

I currently have Pierce on the bench.

Thanks!!

I would bench Pierce. At LV is pretty tough and their defense is ok. Denver’s running defense seems to have fallen apart and they keep punting. Mixon is a home favorite with volume. Walker will get volume and is on an ok offense. Think it comes down to Walker vs. Pierce and you can just go with your gut on that one.
I’m actually starting Pierce over Mixon, but it’s a standard league (not saying that’s better/worse just adding for clarity.)
 
I will start off but I need to see what develops, if anything, with Kenyan Drake & Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines.

PPR, Super-Flex
Goff, Lamar, D'Andre, James Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown & Courtland Sutton are starting.

I need a flex AND I need to decide who to drop to pick up a defense (I don't want to drop PHI D):

Kenyan Drake vs CLE
Deon Jackson @ TEN
K.Herbert @ NEP
Jamaal Williams @ DAL
Doubs @ WAS
C.Samuel v GB

I imagine Jamaal Williams is the best flex play, but that means I am starting four Lions including both RBs.

I think C.Samuel may make the most sense to drop for a defense.

I would go Deon than Samuel. I'd be reluctant to move Samuel only for the fact I'd want to see what Hienke can do and if he feeds one or everyone.
 
I suspect I'm going to be confronting this dilemma every week ROS:

Standard-scoring league where we can only start two RBs, no flex. Chubb is my RB1 and Hall has emerged as my RB2. But Walker was dropped after the first couple weeks, and after the Penny injury, I was able to snag him on the WW. So now I have to decide on Hall (@ Den) or Walker (@ LAC). I started off assuming it would definitely be Hall, but now I'm wavering, particularly based on the matchup (Denver: 9th best FFPA to RBs; LAC: 4th worst)
 

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