To take it to an extreme(as unrealistic as it is) if QB's got 100 points for a TD pass, and all other TD's were still 6 points, Manning would be an easy top 2 pick, and rightfully so. Now if QB's got 1 point per TD pass, with all other TD's still 6 points, i would probably be taking a kicker before Manning. Now i know it is not near that drastic going from 3 to 5 or 4 to 6 points per TD pass, but to say it means nothing based on VBD, or for whatever other reason is wrong, and one of the biggest mistakes one can make.
OK...I've sat idlely by long enoughthe value of the TD pass, or the
change in value of a TD pass leaves a negligible differance in the QB rankings...why? because the change applies to all QB's
but let's not argue theory...top 12 QB's, from FBG's projections:
FF Points--4-TD/3-TD ..... VBD-4/3 per TD pass
1-Culpepper-361(334)...100(101)
2-Manning---326(297).....65(64)
3-Vick--------312(295).....50(62)
4-McNabb----303(282).....42(49)
5-McNair-----297(275).....36(42)
6-Hass-------296(271).....35(38)
7-Bulger-----294(270).....33(37)
8-Brooks----291(267).....30(34)
9-Green-----286(262).....25(29)
10-Garcia---279(259).....18(26)
11-Brady----275(252).....14(19)
12-Favre----261(233).....00(00)
baseline QB (QB12-Favre) is the same for each set...none of the QB's changed position, when TD passes were dropped in value from 4(in FBG's projectons) to 3..
Culpepper, as QB1, has a VBD value of 100 when TD's are figured at 4 and 101 when figured at 3
Vick DOES become MORE valuable, as the value of TD passes drops, because he has a high FF point total derived from rushing TD's, whose value does not change as passing TD's changes
it is true Manning would have some seperation from Vick and the other 'running' QB's, if TD's went from 4 to 5 points, but not enough to change the draft board, only seperate him ALITTLE from the crowd (~10-12 points)
think of it like this...if we change the value of ALL FG's to 10, putting top K's well over 300 FF points, would we start drafting K's early?
I would hope not...the change applies to ALL K's, therefore not overly changing the VALUE of any of these K's signifigantly, with each other
Regarding the topic, of single biggest mistake---not adapting to the dynamics of the draft...
I see so many guys go into a draft 'wanting' McNabb in the second and getting all giddy when they announce such a pick---and passing on valuable position players to do so...sure-fire way to miss the playoffs, by not letting the draft 'come-to-you'