What Will It Take For The US To Be Competitive In World Cup? (2 Viewers)

[TripItUp]

I won't see it my lifetime but I am older than most.  I would be happy just to see continued growth, especially in developing native US talent.

With our current trajectory I wouldn't be surprised to see MLS top 5 within the next 30 years.  Maybe sooner. 

 

[NewlyRetired]

I would say as revenues continue to grow in MLS(fastest by percentage of any of the world's top leagues) it will help us develop and retain talent locally.   So I do think it is relevant in terms of becoming a top footballing nation, perhaps indirectly but relevant nonetheless.

I follow the money side intimately so I won't bore the masses with the data but major MLS growth is hampered by TV revenue. 

The league does really well at the gate and fantastic with sponsors but still does not do well on TV.

Throw in the variable of the changing tv landscape, and there are many of us who are eagerly/nervously awaiting the next TV contract. 

The current TV contract tripled in value from the previous one (which is where a lot of huge % growth numbers come from), but I struggle to see that happen again.  But I would be really pleased if it did come close, as the next tv contract will dramatically tie into how much growth the league can have in the next decade.  

 

[NewlyRetired]

With our current trajectory I wouldn't be surprised to see MLS top 5 within the next 30 years.  Maybe sooner. 

Hope I am still alive and kicking! (no pun intended  )

 

[TripItUp]

Hope I am still alive and kicking! (no pun intended  )

We hope you are too, you carry the USMNT thread!

 

[Native]

Steph couldn't make it in the NBA (basketball's "first" division), so he went to China.  The reverse for Yao.

Your own words.. in China's Pro League they are going both directions.  Only severely lopsided in which direction we are talking about.

So are more people moving up from MLS or down from other leagues?  What do the numbers say?

Its been both.

Until recently, MLS was known primarily as a destination for over the hill former stars - Beckham, Gerrard, Schweinstwiger, etc.  It was the Marbury effect as you call it - entertainment that hides the dearth of talent in the league.

However, in the last few years the league has begun to attract younger players with loads of potential. Atlanta United, which draws 50,000 fans per game, built its team around a bunch of under 23 south American players who are lighting up the league. Some of them are drawing sizable interest from European clubs. More and more young talented players are coming to the US, and as such, the league is in the midst of a transformation. Talent pool is definitely on the rise.

 

[NewlyRetired]

However, in the last few years the league has begun to attract younger players with loads of potential. Atlanta United, which draws 50,000 fans per game, built its team around a bunch of under 23 south American players who are lighting up the league. Some of them are drawing sizable interest from European clubs. More and more young talented players are coming to the US, and as such, the league is in the midst of a transformation. Talent pool is definitely on the rise.

The best part of Atlanta is they took everything most MLS owners thought was gospel ("fans will only support big name players") and turned it completely on its head.  IMO, they can take the majority of the credit for the transformation of the league we are experiencing right now and hopefully will continue into the future.

Not to derail the thread, but Andre Horta might be the most interesting player in the league for me the second half of the season.  I don't think MLS has ever signed a young European who had so many options on the table and chose MLS as his destination.  Hopefully he won't flop.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

We get a bunch of soccer country foreigners.  

 

[msommer]

If and when MLS wants to spend more, they will get more good players.  There is not much science to this.  It is more just pure economics.  The quality growth in MLS has experienced the last 5 years has pretty much moved in lock step with more money being spent.

Not sure whether this will help or hinder development. See NY Cosmos

 

[NewlyRetired]

Not sure whether this will help or hinder development. See NY Cosmos

I am definitely of the opinion that if MLS grows too fast, it will hinder US development. 

We need as many US players playing as possible and if MLS suddenly becomes more of a destination, many US players are going to get starved out of playing time I fear.

It is a bit of a balancing act.  For maximum development you want younger players to play in the best league they can where they can also get good playing time.

 

[msommer]

I am definitely of the opinion that if MLS grows too fast, it will hinder US development. 

We need as many US players playing as possible and if MLS suddenly becomes more of a destination, many US players are going to get starved out of playing time I fear.

It is a bit of a balancing act.  For maximum development you want younger players to play in the best league they can where they can also get good playing time.

But you also want them to have the best people/players to learn from and compete against, so a balancing act indeed

 

[Otis]

i agree with the take.  if we had a soccer league that paid a 5million average salary and regularly paid the very best guys upwards of 40million, do you think we’d have a competitive team?

This. Why is this so hard?  Kids here have way better and more interesting options. If you grew up elsewhere, and soccer’s the best you got, everyone plays it. And so you’re more likely to get the most talented athletes in your country.

i don’t get the controversy. Are all the soccer nerds here up in arms over this concept?

also, are these all the huge soccer fans who conveniently love soccer every four years?  Excuse me while I dust off my zuzukela or whatever the hell those things were from like 8 years ago. 

 

[Otis]

Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[CletiusMaximus]

This. Why is this so hard?  Kids here have way better and more interesting options. If you grew up elsewhere, and soccer’s the best you got, everyone plays it. And so you’re more likely to get the most talented athletes in your country.

i don’t get the controversy. Are all the soccer nerds here up in arms over this concept?

also, are these all the huge soccer fans who conveniently love soccer every four years?  Excuse me while I dust off my zuzukela or whatever the hell those things were from like 8 years ago. 

It’s not a controversy and no one is up in arms - just a false concept that is trotted out every four years when people who don’t know the sport decide to take an interest for a few weeks. The US Soccer team has never lost a game for lack of good athletes. We typically have the better, fitter athletes. It’s just that they aren’t as good at soccer. 

 

[Kafka]

Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Otis trolls in soccer thread...Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Otis]

 We typically have the better, fitter athletes. It’s just that they aren’t as good at soccer. 

What’s the basis for this?  How do you know the US soccer players are more naturally gifted at soccer?  How do you know that we don’t have athletes in basketball, football (actual), and beisbol who wouldn’t be far more tremendously gifted soccer players if not for the fact that they grew up in the US and chose other sports?  No matter how you slice it, I don’t see how you get away from the fact that the people in the US who ultimately pursue competitive soccer comprise a far more diluted talent pool from the overall population of US athletes? 

 

[hagmania]

I follow the money side intimately so I won't bore the masses with the data but major MLS growth is hampered by TV revenue. 

The league does really well at the gate and fantastic with sponsors but still does not do well on TV.

Throw in the variable of the changing tv landscape, and there are many of us who are eagerly/nervously awaiting the next TV contract. 

The current TV contract tripled in value from the previous one (which is where a lot of huge % growth numbers come from), but I struggle to see that happen again.  But I would be really pleased if it did come close, as the next tv contract will dramatically tie into how much growth the league can have in the next decade.  

WWE just signed TV deals with NBC and Fox for >$400 million/year. Surely MLS could get a piece of the live programming pie.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

What’s the basis for this?  How do you know the US soccer players are more naturally gifted at soccer?  How do you know that we don’t have athletes in basketball, football (actual), and beisbol who wouldn’t be far more tremendously gifted soccer players if not for the fact that they grew up in the US and chose other sports?  No matter how you slice it, I don’t see how you get away from the fact that the people in the US who ultimately pursue competitive soccer comprise a far more diluted talent pool from the overall population of US athletes? 

Who said US Soccer players are “naturally more gifted at soccer”? That makes no sense. The basis for my opinion, which is completely non-controversial among those who know the sport, is mostly common sense (assuming a minimal understanding of US soccer.) None of those football or basketball athletes would be great soccer players unless they were raised in a different country. We don’t need football or basketball players in soccer, nor do we need better athletes. We could be better, and most likely will get better as the youth development programs improve and mature. It’s a it more complicated than this, but that’s the heart of it. 

 

[hagmania]

I think it's pretty funny for people to learn about the European soccer leagues. It seemingly breaks their minds when I explain to them "It's like if there were 5 NFL-caliber leagues for football."

 

[msommer]

This. Why is this so hard?  Kids here have way better and more interesting options. If you grew up elsewhere, and soccer’s the best you got, everyone plays it. And so you’re more likely to get the most talented athletes in your country.

i don’t get the controversy. Are all the soccer nerds here up in arms over this concept?

also, are these all the huge soccer fans who conveniently love soccer every four years?  Excuse me while I dust off my zuzukela or whatever the hell those things were from like 8 years ago. 

This is apparently the thread where people with virtually no knowledge of soccer wants to tell all others how it really should be done to be successful in the US.

Good schtick, really, I mean that  

 

[eoMMan]

Who said US Soccer players are “naturally more gifted at soccer”? That makes no sense. The basis for my opinion, which is completely non-controversial among those who know the sport, is mostly common sense (assuming a minimal understanding of US soccer.) None of those football or basketball athletes would be great soccer players unless they were raised in a different country. We don’t need football or basketball players in soccer, nor do we need better athletes. We could be better, and most likely will get better as the youth development programs improve and mature. It’s a it more complicated than this, but that’s the heart of it. 

Why is soccer so expensive for the youth?

 

[msommer]

I think it's pretty funny for people to learn about the European soccer leagues. It seemingly breaks their minds when I explain to them "It's like if there were 5 NFL-caliber leagues for football."

And then they make a tournament where the Champions from those leagues compete, in addition to the normal league.

But they don't call it the "World Championship, or Series, or Super this or that - they simply call it Champions League"

:headexplode:

 

[Beef Ravioli]

And then they make a tournament where the Champions from those leagues compete, in addition to the normal league.

But they don't call it the "World Championship, or Series, or Super this or that - they simply call it Champions League"

:headexplode:

This is SO true!

I played soccer from elementary school through high school. I was pretty good and understand the actual game. But when people start talking about leagues, clubs, teams, champions, etc etc, I am totally lost!

 

[Capella]

WWE just signed TV deals with NBC and Fox for >$400 million/year. Surely MLS could get a piece of the live programming pie.

Wwe, for as corny as it is, crushes in the ratings. I haven’t looked it up but I don’t think MLS does very well at all. 

 

[roadkill1292]

Lol at the soccernerds thinking their sport is any more complex than the other big four.

And I say that in love. <3

The game itself is a simple one. But, like chess, another simple game, there are vastly different levels of skills and tactical knowledge.

 

[hagmania]

I gotta admit I haven't paid much attention to American soccer until Nashville got a team. Looking forward to learning about as much about soccer as I know about hockey.

 

[Short Corner]

I think it makes transferring players a little harder but outside of that I don't think it has a big effect.

And we don't really have much choice right now.  We have too many northern teams, and only one plays in a dome stadium. 

How many Bundesliga teams play in domes?

 

[roadkill1292]

i agree with the take.  if we had a soccer league that paid a 5million average salary and regularly paid the very best guys upwards of 40million, do you think we’d have a competitive team?

Only if all the MLS teams and hundreds of other clubs ran youth academies for the one percenters. Add water and presto!, in just 20 or 30 years we ought to have a top national team competing for World Cups.

 

[Short Corner]

So these are like rec softball teams? I thought you meant these were more semi pros. Or am I missing what you're saying?

They are like rec softball teams that have a coach and practice 1-2x per week.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I think it's pretty funny for people to learn about the European soccer leagues. It seemingly breaks their minds when I explain to them "It's like if there were 5 NFL-caliber leagues for football."

I think college football is a better parallel to describe the structure of euro soccer.  You have the “big 5” leagues/conferences.  Then you have the second tier conferences like Russia, Portugal, Holland, which aren’t as good but whose top teams could theoretically steal a natl title from time to time (ie champions league).

its also why I think pro/rel would work in college football more than any American pro sport including soccer.

 

[msommer]

How many Bundesliga teams play in domes?

Or Norwegian teams for that matter

 

[BassNBrew]

Who said US Soccer players are “naturally more gifted at soccer”? That makes no sense. The basis for my opinion, which is completely non-controversial among those who know the sport, is mostly common sense (assuming a minimal understanding of US soccer.) None of those football or basketball athletes would be great soccer players unless they were raised in a different country. We don’t need football or basketball players in soccer, nor do we need better athletes. We could be better, and most likely will get better as the youth development programs improve and mature. It’s a it more complicated than this, but that’s the heart of it. 

BUT do we need to be more gifted at soccer,

After more goals came from set-pieces in this World Cup's group stage than any other, dead-ball strategy has continued to have a huge impact in the knockout phase, with five of the 11 goals scored in the quarter-finals coming from free kicks or corners.
           
Raphael Varane headed France on their way to a 2-0 win over Uruguay from a free kick while Fernandinho deflected a cross from a corner into his own net to put his Brazil side behind in their eventual 2-1 defeat by Belgium.
           
England continued their prolific use of set-plays to break the deadlock in their 2-0 win over Sweden when Harry Maguire headed home from a corner.
           
Denis Cheryshev's wonder strike in Russia's 2-2 draw against Croatia was the only opening goal in the quarters not to come from a set play, although Croatia's Domagoj Vida later struck from a corner in extra time and Mario Fernandes headed in a free kick to force a shootout in which Croatia triumphed.
           
Fernandes's header was the 66th set-piece goal scored at the 2018 World Cup out of 157 in total.

Overall, 42 percent of goals in the World Cup have come from set plays or penalties, beating the previous record of 36 percent from the 1998 World Cup and smashing the portion of goals from these situations in 2014 (27 percent), 2010 (24 percent), 2002 (29 percent) and 1994 (33 percent).
           
This trend has powered the rise of teams that traditionally do not do well in World Cups.
           
Hosts Russia, the lowest ranked team in the tournament, scored five of their 11 goals from set-pieces on the way to the quarter-finals, their strongest showing since the end of the Soviet Union, and got past highly fancied Spain in the last 16 thanks to a penalty shootout.
           
England, meanwhile, reached the semi-finals for the first time in 28 years with the help of eight goals from set-pieces, more than any other side in the tournament, including three penalties.
           
They also won a shootout for the first time in four World Cup attempts by knocking out Colombia in the last 16, a sign of their progress in preparing for every possible outcome.
           
England have been far more reliant on set-play strategy than fellow semi-finalists Belgium and France, who have struck three goals each from them, while their next opponents Croatia have scored from only one set piece and one penalty.
           
Gareth Southgate's side's potency from set-pieces was certainly on the minds of Croatia after they were forced into penalties by Russia.

           
"We watched the game today and saw how good they are from dead-ball situations," captain Luka Modric said.
           
"We will have to improve on our set-piece defending between now and Wednesday."
                         
England's remarkable set-play success is the fruit of extra preparation on the training ground with attacking coach Allan Russell, who has travelled with Southgate to the United States to study strategies from the NBA and NFL.
           
"We'd been spending a lot of time on set pieces, right down to the details, all the runs and the blocks," said midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
           
Captain and top scorer Harry Kane added: "Allan does finishing sessions with us, tells us about opposition defenders, goalkeepers, and tells us maybe where we can exploit a weakness. It's just little stuff to maybe give us an edge."
           
In a World Cup where set-pieces have played such a huge role and with teams becoming ever more cautious as the final approaches, that edge could prove the difference between England ending 52 years of hurt or falling at the penultimate hurdle.

Now I realize that skilled technical play creates these set pieces, but imagine having Lebron James technically great at soccer in the box on corner kicks or a kid with a leg the equal to the arm of Aaron Rodgers' arm taking free kicks.  Set pieces are far more about athleticism and being able to repeat a single skill then open field technical play.  Some 6'6" kid with a 40"+ vertical that can hold his own on the field is going to be a force on set pieces.  

 

[hagmania]

The game itself is a simple one. But, like chess, another simple game, there are vastly different levels of skills and tactical knowledge.

I totally get the academy aspect of it all. You need to develop soccer IQ as early as possible and start developing knowledge of game with mechanical prowess to reach the elite upper echelon of players.

I was trying to knock down some of the gatekeeping going on ITT.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Or Norwegian teams for that matter

Norway’s calendar is the same as MLS - March to November.  For the same reason MLS doesn’t play in winter

 

[msommer]

Now I realize that skilled technical play creates these set pieces, but imagine having Lebron James technically great at soccer in the box on corner kicks or a kid with a leg the equal to the arm of Aaron Rodgers' arm taking free kicks.  Set pieces are far more about athleticism and being able to repeat a single skill then open field technical play.  Some 6'6" kid with a 40"+ vertical that can hold his own on the field is going to be a force on set pieces.  

Sure. But the reason he's not on the team is that he doesn't have the stamina to run for 45 minutes, take a 15 minute break and then do it again

 

[msommer]

Norway’s calendar is the same as MLS - March to November.  For the same reason MLS doesn’t play in winter

Point being that soccer isn't played in domes

 

[roadkill1292]

Why is soccer so expensive for the youth?

IMO because it's mostly a commercial structure right now. Whereas in Europe, and I guess elsewhere, too, there is significant financial support from the national federations and even the communities.  Our national federation doesn't even have jurisdiction over our top national league and community support, as I understand things, doesn't extend much beyond rec leagues. Am I wrong about this? Do any local communities support serious travel teams?

You have to pay for good coaching. And that appears to be in short supply here. Our ground level structure, which is the really the key to the whole puzzle, is just so far behind.

 

[Short Corner]

Norway’s calendar is the same as MLS - March to November.  For the same reason MLS doesn’t play in winter

Slight difference in latitudes.

 

[msommer]

IMO because it's mostly a commercial structure right now. Whereas in Europe, and I guess elsewhere, too, there is significant financial support from the national federations and even the communities.  Our national federation doesn't even have jurisdiction over our top national league and community support, as I understand things, doesn't extend much beyond rec leagues. Am I wrong about this? Do any local communities support serious travel teams?

You have to pay for good coaching. And that appears to be in short supply here. Our ground level structure, which is the really the key to the whole puzzle, is just so far behind.

The way it works in Denmark for amateurs is that you join a club. There is a membership fee that covers everything except camps. It is not high, maybe 2-300 bucks. In a way the breadth of the club subsidizes the elite because the top amateur teams will play at least in a regional championship with bussing back and forth to games.

Professional clubs is another matter.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Slight difference in latitudes.

I wasn’t the one who brought up Norway

 

[Short Corner]

I wasn’t the one who brought up Norway

But you conveniently brushed past the Bundesliga suggestion.

 

[rockaction]

Saying that we have athletes doing other things seems to be like arguing with a SABR guy that Kansas City won the World Series with Ned Yost as coach and bunting and speed and defense as large components. The implications of the premise, of course, are tremendous. 

I don't just follow soccer every four years, but am still a novice. It just strikes me that there's something ingrained in both the U.S.'s soccer structure and also talent drain that plays a role. It's a big tent for the arguments as to why we're not an elite soccer nation, and all sides deserve a seat at the table.  

It's why f(x) became such a huge part of baseball scouting, where the eye test became quantifiable and the quantifiable was subject to an advanced eye test.   

 

[NewlyRetired]

How many Bundesliga teams play in domes?

none that I know of.  But Germany does not see the amount of snow we do here in the northern states and Canada.

 

[shader]

It’s not a controversy and no one is up in arms - just a false concept that is trotted out every four years when people who don’t know the sport decide to take an interest for a few weeks. The US Soccer team has never lost a game for lack of good athletes. We typically have the better, fitter athletes. It’s just that they aren’t as good at soccer. 

I think there’s merit to the argument, even though it’s mostly Otis shtick.  Yes the US has never had a lack of “good athletes”.  But the US still isn’t getting the elite athletes of the country onto the field. 

Yes the elite athletes of this country still would need proper coaching, but I don’t think that’s a problem in 2018 like it was in 2005.  

The MLS and their academies seem to be providing solid coaching to kids.  So now that this is the case, it’s time to recruit the elite, transcendent athletes of the country to play this sport.  That’s the challenge.

 

[shader]

This. Why is this so hard?  Kids here have way better and more interesting options. If you grew up elsewhere, and soccer’s the best you got, everyone plays it. And so you’re more likely to get the most talented athletes in your country.

i don’t get the controversy. Are all the soccer nerds here up in arms over this concept?

also, are these all the huge soccer fans who conveniently love soccer every four years?  Excuse me while I dust off my zuzukela or whatever the hell those things were from like 8 years ago. 

The soccer fans here follow soccer year round. It’s on the entire 8 months while your fat nfl idols are on vacation eating 

 

[NewlyRetired]

WWE just signed TV deals with NBC and Fox for >$400 million/year. Surely MLS could get a piece of the live programming pie.

MLS does pretty well already considering its ratings.

The current deal runs through 2022 so it will be a while before we find out if there is any growth and to see if the changing landscape effects live sports in the coming years.

The WWE and UFC deals that were recently signed are promising.

 

[roadkill1292]

none that I know of.  But Germany does not see the amount of snow we do here in the northern states and Canada.

And takes a winter break for the worst of it. Heck, even here in Maryland much of December-March is completely unfit for outdoor sports.

 

[NewlyRetired]

And takes a winter break for the worst of it. Heck, even here in Maryland much of December-March is completely unfit for outdoor sports.

There have been studies that have shown we would need closer to a 2 month break, coupled with the northern teams taking road trips on either end of the break.  Some teams might not play a home game for close to 3 months.

There are some benefits to a winter summer schedule that I like but with the revenue life blood of the league intricately tied to the gate, I think there is still some fear of how it would effect the leagues overall financial structure from the owners.

 

[shader]

There are two areas where the US should have a significant advantage over all other countries. Defenders and attackers.  

CBs:  I’m goign to make a wild assumption that Britain isn’t full of 6’4 athletes.  When is the last time you’ve seen a British nba player?  When a young lad has size, he’s turned into a CB or a GK.  Virgil Van dijk comes into the pl from Holland and fans rave over his size. He’s 6’4

You can go to any gym in America and find 6’4 athletes that from a sheer athletic standpoint would likely matchup to Virgil or would put many other pl CB’s to shame.

Obviously coaching needs to happen, but America is loaded with athletes that, if they were trained from youth in soccer, would make scouts drool. 

Yes the current team is athletically similar to the rest of the world.  But it’s not athletically superior, as it should be, when you consider that (for whatever reason) America is far ahead of other countries in producing athletic phenoms

 

[NewlyRetired]

I gotta admit I haven't paid much attention to American soccer until Nashville got a team. Looking forward to learning about as much about soccer as I know about hockey.

I mentioned this earlier to Joe but I think all the ingredients are in place for another successful MLS expansion to Nashville.

How close will the new stadium be to you?

 

[Nugget]

Skill development needs to be addressed.  I don't see technique being taught on how to properly strike a ball.  I don't see speed training.  I see lots of loose practices and scrimages that take a couple hours a week.  We need more 10,000 hours of deliberate practice.  

There are enough athletes for multiple sports to thrive in the US.