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Where would you draft McCaffrey today in PPR League today? - 1.01 Still? (1 Viewer)

Where Would You Draft Christian McCaffrey today in PPR League


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Joe Bryant

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Sorry for the 2nd McCaffrey poll but this came up amongst friends arguing about where in the first round they'd take McCaffrey today.

Wanted to compare to the Shark Pool.
 
I have a good friend who adamantly says he'd draft McCaffrey again today at 1.01. That surprised me.
 
They say you can’t win your league in the first round but you can lose it. There’s now both a chance he misses significant time and a chance they split the workload more than they ever have to keep him healthy. Either way it’s hard to get a positive return on a first round pick
 
Depends on the rules of course but....

If the draft took place today and week 1 didn't count, I'd take him knowing I'd have to reach earlier than I'd like for Mason later.

Not the safest play, but I still like him as a differentiator at the position. If I can own that niners running game, I'm feeling good about my chances.
 
No way I could justify taking him 1.01, which means I probably have to reach for Mason at round 5 or 6. In a 12 team league I kind of think your team is going to be weak at WR or weak at RB.

I look at it like this SF would be kind of foolish to me to bellcow CMC if they know Mason is capable when they really are trying to win a Super Bowl. So my projections have to go down on CMC based off the injury. He can't possibly be 1.01 to me based off projections because I have to cut his projections down.

CMC had 62% of the RB rushes I am including Deebo as a RB last year. Now that he is injured what is the likelihood he sees the same workload in games he is playing as last year?
 
Depends on the rules of course but....

If the draft took place today and week 1 didn't count, I'd take him knowing I'd have to reach earlier than I'd like for Mason later.

Not the safest play, but I still like him as a differentiator at the position. If I can own that niners running game, I'm feeling good about my chances.
This is actually pretty important whether we're counting week 1. I regret taking CMC 1.1 mostly because he messed up week 1. If I was drafting weeks 2-14 though, still CMC 1.
 
I lowered him to 5th overall Saturday morning.

After missing a game and maybe two I'd move him down to 9 or 10 overall.

I don't really care a lot about missing a game or two. Reason I had him 5th before knowing he'd miss and why I'd have him 9/10 is simply the fear of this injury being an issue.

If you told me during drafting season that CMC would miss the first two weeks and then be healthy all year I'd have picked him one or two overall.
 
I lowered him to 5th overall Saturday morning.

After missing a game and maybe two I'd move him down to 9 or 10 overall.

I don't really care a lot about missing a game or two. Reason I had him 5th before knowing he'd miss and why I'd have him 9/10 is simply the fear of this injury being an issue.

If you told me during drafting season that CMC would miss the first two weeks and then be healthy all year I'd have picked him one or two overall.
I assume you mean 5th overall draft, not for the week. can i ask what the four picks ahead of him looked like? I can see 3 or 4, but 5 seems tough to me.

also, your last statement looks out of place to me, is there a typo in there? Or, you're saying if we were guaranteed that he won't miss another game after week 2 then he's still worthy of 2 or 3?

Thx meno.
 
I lowered him to 5th overall Saturday morning.

After missing a game and maybe two I'd move him down to 9 or 10 overall.

I don't really care a lot about missing a game or two. Reason I had him 5th before knowing he'd miss and why I'd have him 9/10 is simply the fear of this injury being an issue.

If you told me during drafting season that CMC would miss the first two weeks and then be healthy all year I'd have picked him one or two overall.
I assume you mean 5th overall draft, not for the week. can i ask what the four picks ahead of him looked like? I can see 3 or 4, but 5 seems tough to me.

also, your last statement looks out of place to me, is there a typo in there? Or, you're saying if we were guaranteed that he won't miss another game after week 2 then he's still worthy of 2 or 3?

Thx meno.
I had pick 1.1 on big draft Saturday. I passed and would have taken Lamb, Tyreek, Bijan and Breece over him and this of course is before I knew he's miss games to start the year. And yes I meant for the season, not for the week.

If had benefit of hindsight Saturday morning, or anytime during the drafting portion of the season that he'd miss weeks to start the season and be good to go for the rest of the year I'd have picked him first or second. Probably second, for sure never later then 3.

All to really say if you invested in him I'd not be sweating out him missing 1-2 weeks. It's a disappointing start but it's not that big of a deal and I say this as someone who mainly plays in 12 week regular season contest. All that matters is if he's good to go for the duration when he gets back in what I assume is week 3 at the latest.

Does that make sense?
 
If I’m being honest with myself, I shouldn’t have drafted him in my home league at 1.01 on August 31st.

I knew better. I had done 6 drafts already, I absolutely killed it from the 6 & 7 positions. My whole plan was to take 6-7 if I got the 1st selection, and between CMC returning to practice & saying he was fine, and the Draft Dominator having his projected points so much higher than any other player, plus the allure of the bookend, I talked myself into it.

And probably ruined my season in the process.

I’m better than that at FF. I drafted 4 NFFC teams that are all better than my home league team. I’m mad at myself for it, and will add this data point to my “lessons learned” list for next year’s draft prep.

I knew not to draft an already hurt player. I knew I wanted to draft from a middle spot. I knew all of those things and did it anyway. And I was stone cold sober, too.

No idea what I was thinking but at least I drafted better everywhere else. It happens. It wont happen again.
 
Calf injuries are pretty scary. It can easily lead to other things. I know I passed @ 1.01 in FFPC draft a few weekends ago. Old and injured, I’m out!

Took Cedee instead and feeling great about it!
 
My friend Justin is sharp and has a very sharp twitter following.

20% of his audience would take McCaffrey at 1.01 again.

Hindsight is always 20-20

What we know up until the Thursday before opening weekend:
• calf only
• reportedly mild/precautionary
• returned to practice
• player & coach said “absolutely” would play.

Had all the feel of a minor injury they were being cautious with star player about - bubble wrap treatment.

It wasn’t until Friday the 6th that they said “Achilles”.

we can only go with what we know. The information in hand was all positive, neutral at worst. I don’t blame FBG any more than I blame myself. If there were glaring red flags, I, a local SF fan, would have heard about them.

It wasn’t even reported that Mason got all the 1 carries in practice until Monday game day. Niners played it close to the vest, and IMO violated league policy in doing so.

And a whoooooole lot of FF managers got hosed in the process. As mentioned, I did 4 NFFC $350 drafts. Now, money doesn’t equal brains, but there are a lot of sharp players in that contest. CMC went 1.01 in all 4 of my ROC drafts.

No one knew.
 
The League Dominator lists McCaffrey as the #1 player for rest of season rankings. If drafting today, FBG's own tools say he's the 1.01.
 
As a projector, I wanted to weigh in here. My projections will show CMC as the 1.01 and it’s been under heavy discussion today. After a lot of thought, I’m sticking to my guns here. The most logical explanation to what happened in week one is that McCaffrey was legitimately close to playing and out of an abundance of caution, Shanahan decided to rest a guy who is far more important to him in the playoffs than week one. If anything, Jordan Mason cemented how valuable this 49ers running back role is. Toss a few more receptions his way, and you’ll have a pretty good comparison for what we should expect from CMC. Injuries are inherently a guessing game when we are kept at arms reach with information. But reading the tea leaves here, McCaffrey seems more likely than not to be ready to roll for week two. If I could flip a mid first rounder like Justin Jefferson for CMC, I would do it without flinching.
 
I lowered him to 5th overall Saturday morning.

After missing a game and maybe two I'd move him down to 9 or 10 overall.

I don't really care a lot about missing a game or two. Reason I had him 5th before knowing he'd miss and why I'd have him 9/10 is simply the fear of this injury being an issue.

If you told me during drafting season that CMC would miss the first two weeks and then be healthy all year I'd have picked him one or two overall.
I assume you mean 5th overall draft, not for the week. can i ask what the four picks ahead of him looked like? I can see 3 or 4, but 5 seems tough to me.

also, your last statement looks out of place to me, is there a typo in there? Or, you're saying if we were guaranteed that he won't miss another game after week 2 then he's still worthy of 2 or 3?

Thx meno.
If you guaranteed me any consensus first round pick wouldn’t miss a game after week two they’re the 1.01 IMO
 
My hesitation is twofold:

One - the injury itself and its relation to how SFO will want to keep CMC fresh for what should be a double-digit win season and decent playoff run, if not better. Calf injuries are one thing, but they added "Achilles" to the nomenclature as of this weekend. That is concerning.

Two - it's somewhat related to keeping CMC fresh, but man... Jordan Mason looked GREAT against what was supposed to be one of the top defenses in the NFL. He was just running around and through dudes, good blocking or not. I don't see how SFO doesn't give him a decent workload, even if CMC is reportedly "healthy". That will affect CMC's value.

So no, I wouldn't take him at 1.01 if I were drafting now. I think I'd bite at 1.06... and then have to invest in Mason at some point earlier than I really would want to just to protect the investment.

I own CMC in two dynasty leagues and feel gut-punched. I hope he comes back to 100% and they just spell him a few times a game with Mason. I don't know if that's how it'll play out, though.
 
Yeah, I'm not seeing a first never mind the 1.01. Mason was sledgehammering the Jets with brutal, physical running, so there's no reason to think that McCaffrey would have put up the same numbers. Sauce and company looked they didn't want to tackle either he or Deebo. McCaffrey doesn't have that kind of rep or respect around the league. I think the Jets got a taste of something rare that they didn't like. So that claim that he steps right in and produces Mason's numbers on the night (plus passing game work) seems unsound.

I went with after 2.01 because in hindsight, I'm still not taking him overall as the first running back, never mind player. Breece Hall slides into number one for me, Bijan into number two, and then healthier guys down the line. There's certainly a case to be made for taking him earlier, but with hindsight and the uncertainty of his injury, I wouldn't go there. There are twelve players assured of being comparable without having those sort of injury questions hovering around them.

And trust me, the year I had CMC it was a total ****stain on your lineup with him being questionable all week then out and etc., etc.

"I'll take those sweet, sweet points when he plays!" says the rationalist while not thinking more deeply about roster spots and opportunity cost of waiver wire guys you couldn't or didn't pick up because he was questionable all week and not able to be IR'd. Just not playing and clogging a roster spot.
 

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