What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Who do we target? - David Nelson (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Each week I'm going to try to find a lesser known guy who is receiving a lot of targets and try to go through and break those targets down. Some guys I will have, others I won't. But I'm going to try to keep the bias to a minimum and just report what I see. I'm going to be using NFL Rewind for this exercise so the nuances of the game might not be perfect, but it should be fun to do and interesting.

Today, I'm going to put David Nelson's targets in some context against Oakland. I think this type of information is helpful in revealing who may continue to impress. Nelson looked primed for continued success.

1st target – 2nd play of game. 5 wide set 10 yard curl. Looked like Fitzpatrick missed him. Incomplete. We'll see this play again...several times.

2nd target – (6:44 of first). Lined up in slot to the right. Just a nice little 10 yard curl. Pitch and catch and then Nelson slipped. But he ran his route beyond the first down.

During this time, the team looked to be intentional getting the ball to Stevie Johnson.

3rd target – (3:45 of the Second) – Redzone target. Ball deflected but Nelson still was inches from a TD after the he rolled out the back of the endzone and caught the tip.

4th target – (3:06 in second) 3rd and 7 in redzone. Came up inches short of first down.

5th target – (1:09 in second) Just working the middle of the field. Sat down in the open spot then gained 3 yards with Rolando McClain hanging all over him.



Coming out after halftime, the Bills looked again to be trying to feed Stevie Johnson here. It worked, Johnson got a TD.

6th target – (1:46 of the third quarter) – Fitz just missed him after dealing with some pressure on a deep cross. Nelson appeared open.

7th target – (9:18 in the fourth) After another target to Stevie, Nelson had a nice little catch and run on a QB waggle play. Looked to be the primary target and ran a sweet route where he sold the play action and then broke right for the easy complete. He ran up to Huff. Stood straight up and then Huff went to chuck him but over extended. He slipped right and Huff fell forward and almost went right on his face. Looked a 6th grader playing with a 3rd grader.

Nelson commended by announcers for his run blocking :thumbup:

8th target – (5:35 in fourth REDZONE) – Overthrown

9th target – Another little hook in the soft spot of the zone. Catch and run. Showing good YAC ability for such a big guy. Seems to be matchup up on Huff and linebackers mainly. McClain missed a tackle and Nelson got 4 yards after breaking free.

10th target – Hitch again. McClain tackle him immediately.

11th tagert (1:45 of fourth) – Same play again. McClain got him down about 7 yards downfield again. Actually doubled by McClain and Huff.

12th target :-)27 of fourth) – More of a rollout left. Nelson looked like the secondary read here after the play broke down. Nice little gainer where he kept working to get open.

13th target :-)18 of fourth) – In motion from left side, quick little slant. Busted coverage – touchdown.

whodowetarget

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good stuff Sabertooth...I was sold on him last week and picked he and Decker up prior to Sunday's games (Jeff P. had a great Decker article). This guy continues to impress.

 
'BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
Good stuff Sabertooth...I was sold on him last week and picked he and Decker up prior to Sunday's games (Jeff P. had a great Decker article). This guy continues to impress.
Click to expand...
I did the exact same thing. I was sitting in my truck waiting to show a rental and I decided to snag Nelson. Then I read more about Lloyd so I grabbed Decker for insurance and used him in place of Lloyd. Then the person I was showing the house to offered to buy it. :o
 
'Sabertooth said:
'BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
Good stuff Sabertooth...I was sold on him last week and picked he and Decker up prior to Sunday's games (Jeff P. had a great Decker article). This guy continues to impress.
Click to expand...
I did the exact same thing. I was sitting in my truck waiting to show a rental and I decided to snag Nelson. Then I read more about Lloyd so I grabbed Decker for insurance and used him in place of Lloyd. Then the person I was showing the house to offered to buy it. :o
Click to expand...
LOL. Grab two WW studs prior to their breakout and then sell a house. That's a good day.
 
on the TD to Johnson, Nelson was wide open in the back of the endzone as well...

As a Bills homer... Nelson is basically used as a receiving TE, big guy over the middle, short passes, with the occasional seam pass

Also I would not be surprised to see him get more targets if Parrish is out for a longer period (he was carted off). He is basically a starter b/c the Bills very rarely go 2RB/2WR/1TE

Hope this helps

 
'jonramz said:
on the TD to Johnson, Nelson was wide open in the back of the endzone as well...As a Bills homer... Nelson is basically used as a receiving TE, big guy over the middle, short passes, with the occasional seam passAlso I would not be surprised to see him get more targets if Parrish is out for a longer period (he was carted off). He is basically a starter b/c the Bills very rarely go 2RB/2WR/1TEHope this helps
Click to expand...
Was Stevie Johnson out for a period during this game? I only watched the Nelson plays.
 
I think I'm going to pick one or two guys a week to do this with. I just think it is more useful than seeing 12 targets.

It appeared in this game that Fitz just took what the defense gave him, and the left Nelson singled on a McClain or Huff on almost every one of his catches. I'm going to go back and check his week 1 plays as well.

 
'Sabertooth said:
'jonramz said:
on the TD to Johnson, Nelson was wide open in the back of the endzone as well...As a Bills homer... Nelson is basically used as a receiving TE, big guy over the middle, short passes, with the occasional seam passAlso I would not be surprised to see him get more targets if Parrish is out for a longer period (he was carted off). He is basically a starter b/c the Bills very rarely go 2RB/2WR/1TEHope this helps
Click to expand...
Was Stevie Johnson out for a period during this game? I only watched the Nelson plays.
Click to expand...
Johnson had some calf problems... but I don't think he missed many plays if any at all.Raiders played very very basic defenses for most of the game. Fitz say Nelson on a LB in zone coverage and went to it. Raiders pass coverage is quite poor
 
Stevie missed the last 2 or 3 plays of the game...when Nelson got his TD. Looked like he rolled an ankle or something. Haven't seen any injurt report on him yet so I don't think its serious.

 
'andrew11 said:
Stevie missed the last 2 or 3 plays of the game...when Nelson got his TD. Looked like he rolled an ankle or something. Haven't seen any injurt report on him yet so I don't think its serious.
Click to expand...
thought he was cramping up. Nelson has a great matchup vs NE in a possible shootout. Could make a good flex/WR3 this week
 
:thumbup:

I picked him up in the off season, then cut him, then got him again and will hold for a while now. People were slow to react to Steve Johnson last year and the Bills are likely to fall behind like they did yesterday and then shoot the lights out. Chan Gailey has no reservations about turning Fitz loose so there are going to be games with WRs who have pod stat besides Stevie. You factor in some injuries and then Jones and Parrish are kind of small compared to Nelson who is at least 6-4 maybe 6-5 and has some good size for Fitz to throw the ball to. Plus Johnson is going to draw double team so that helps nelson roam around virtually uncovered at times.

Great thread Saber

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Ministry of Pain said:
:thumbup:I picked him up in the off season, then cut him, then got him again and will hold for a while now. People were slow to react to Steve Johnson last year and the Bills are likely to fall behind like they did yesterday and then shoot the lights out. Chan Gailey has no reservations about turning Fitz loose so there are going to be games with WRs who have pod stat besides Stevie. You factor in some injuries and then Jones and Parrish are kind of small compared to Nelson who is at least 6-4 maybe 6-5 and has some good size for Fitz to throw the ball to. Plus Johnson is going to draw double team so that helps nelson roam around virtually uncovered at times. Great thread Saber
Click to expand...
I'm just trying to contribute and perhaps find a little niche here on the boards. I'm hoping to parlay this into a Bryant Boat! You've got yours right?
 
'Sabertooth said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
:thumbup:I picked him up in the off season, then cut him, then got him again and will hold for a while now. People were slow to react to Steve Johnson last year and the Bills are likely to fall behind like they did yesterday and then shoot the lights out. Chan Gailey has no reservations about turning Fitz loose so there are going to be games with WRs who have pod stat besides Stevie. You factor in some injuries and then Jones and Parrish are kind of small compared to Nelson who is at least 6-4 maybe 6-5 and has some good size for Fitz to throw the ball to. Plus Johnson is going to draw double team so that helps nelson roam around virtually uncovered at times. Great thread Saber
Click to expand...
I'm just trying to contribute and perhaps find a little niche here on the boards. I'm hoping to parlay this into a Bryant Boat! You've got yours right?
Click to expand...
I'm in the fringe doing the game recaps but what I love is because I am doing a couple a week I use the NFL game rewind and watch every play a couple times and that helps with the weekly in the SP. I love it Saber, we need more weekly threads. "The Shark Pool Staff" :)
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
:thumbup:I picked him up in the off season, then cut him, then got him again and will hold for a while now. People were slow to react to Steve Johnson last year and the Bills are likely to fall behind like they did yesterday and then shoot the lights out. Chan Gailey has no reservations about turning Fitz loose so there are going to be games with WRs who have pod stat besides Stevie. You factor in some injuries and then Jones and Parrish are kind of small compared to Nelson who is at least 6-4 maybe 6-5 and has some good size for Fitz to throw the ball to. Plus Johnson is going to draw double team so that helps nelson roam around virtually uncovered at times. Great thread Saber
Click to expand...
Agree here, great thread. Also, if you look at least season, late in the year it seemed like Nelson started earning Fitz's trust, he went 3 weeks straight with a TD and then was lost to injury the last couple of games. He picked up right where he left off, and seems to be heavily involved. He should be a very good red zone target with his size.
 
Can the OP provide some details on how Donald Jones looked today? It appears from the box score that he got mainly very short sideline plays, with the exception of a big 4th down catch at the end of the game. I still wonder if this is a guy that can work himself into a few more opportunities, given how much praise Fitzgerald was giving him over the off-season, and especially with Roscoe battling his injury.

 
Said this all last year and still say it today: Nelson is the most talented WR on the Bills roster. He is a physical speciman that wasn't used properly at Florida. Chan Gailey knows how to use a guy like him though. I don't know why they don't instantly make him the #2 WR because he consistently outplays Jones no matter the situation. Runs better routes, better hands, better blocker. The guy is 6'5 with a 38" verticle. He is only getting better and better and I hope the Bills lock him up to a long term contract before he explodes even more.

 
'Mr. Peterson said:
Said this all last year and still say it today: Nelson is the most talented WR on the Bills roster. He is a physical speciman that wasn't used properly at Florida. Chan Gailey knows how to use a guy like him though. I don't know why they don't instantly make him the #2 WR because he consistently outplays Jones no matter the situation. Runs better routes, better hands, better blocker. The guy is 6'5 with a 38" verticle. He is only getting better and better and I hope the Bills lock him up to a long term contract before he explodes even more.
Click to expand...
I think I agree.
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Mr. Peterson said:
Said this all last year and still say it today: Nelson is the most talented WR on the Bills roster. He is a physical speciman that wasn't used properly at Florida. Chan Gailey knows how to use a guy like him though. I don't know why they don't instantly make him the #2 WR because he consistently outplays Jones no matter the situation. Runs better routes, better hands, better blocker. The guy is 6'5 with a 38" verticle. He is only getting better and better and I hope the Bills lock him up to a long term contract before he explodes even more.
Click to expand...
I think I agree.
Click to expand...
I posted quite a bit of stats regarding Nelson in last week's WW thread and I'm not totally ready to agree with this statement. In most of the physical stats Nelson has an edge and they are pretty close to the same speed (4.55 vs 4.57 40 times) but Johnson is stronger and more dynamic after the catch than Nelson.
 
I'm also thinking of starting him this week against the Pats.

If Chad Henne can chuck 300+ yards against the Pats D, then Fitz and company should do the same and more. Nelson benefited with 10 recs in their shootout against Oakland. I'm predicting a similar game against the Pats. Start Nelson.

 
'wudaben said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Mr. Peterson said:
Said this all last year and still say it today: Nelson is the most talented WR on the Bills roster. He is a physical speciman that wasn't used properly at Florida. Chan Gailey knows how to use a guy like him though. I don't know why they don't instantly make him the #2 WR because he consistently outplays Jones no matter the situation. Runs better routes, better hands, better blocker. The guy is 6'5 with a 38" verticle. He is only getting better and better and I hope the Bills lock him up to a long term contract before he explodes even more.
Click to expand...
I think I agree.
Click to expand...
I posted quite a bit of stats regarding Nelson in last week's WW thread and I'm not totally ready to agree with this statement. In most of the physical stats Nelson has an edge and they are pretty close to the same speed (4.55 vs 4.57 40 times) but Johnson is stronger and more dynamic after the catch than Nelson.
Click to expand...
That's true but if Nelson became a force in the red zone he could prove more valuable. Not right now but maybe later on.
 
'jonboltz said:
Can the OP provide some details on how Donald Jones looked today? It appears from the box score that he got mainly very short sideline plays, with the exception of a big 4th down catch at the end of the game. I still wonder if this is a guy that can work himself into a few more opportunities, given how much praise Fitzgerald was giving him over the off-season, and especially with Roscoe battling his injury.
Click to expand...
From what I saw, he was used on mainly 10 yard hitch patterns. He was able to catch most of them, but was hit many times by McClain. He was able to fight through and get probably 20 yards on just sheer power and want-to. But he wasn't really hit in stride except for on that one play I described where he made Huff look like a grade schooler and one or two other ones. He was basically standing still every time he caught the ball, with a linebacker or safety within a yard or two of him. He never really got a chance to bust it loose. He did show good hands and the ability to catch and run in traffic. Nobody is going to mistake him for Greg Jennings out there, that's not his game. He reminds me a bit of Herman Moore.
 
I'm dropping Manningham for him this week. This is an auction league and I have Manningham for $9 out of $100. I'm cutting him and using all of the caps space I have to secure Nelson. I think he showed this week how he will be used. He just sat underneath and took what the defense gave them.

Now teams may adjust but you can't pay too much attention to him because Johnson is the star there and Fred Jackson is running hard right.

 
'Sabertooth said:
I'm dropping Manningham for him this week. This is an auction league and I have Manningham for $9 out of $100. I'm cutting him and using all of the caps space I have to secure Nelson. I think he showed this week how he will be used. He just sat underneath and took what the defense gave them. Now teams may adjust but you can't pay too much attention to him because Johnson is the star there and Fred Jackson is running hard right.
Click to expand...
Can't you trade Manningham instead of cutting him? I like Nelson a lot but it seems like a waste to drop a guy some people are high on.
 
'todisco1 said:
'Sabertooth said:
I'm dropping Manningham for him this week. This is an auction league and I have Manningham for $9 out of $100. I'm cutting him and using all of the caps space I have to secure Nelson. I think he showed this week how he will be used. He just sat underneath and took what the defense gave them. Now teams may adjust but you can't pay too much attention to him because Johnson is the star there and Fred Jackson is running hard right.
Click to expand...
Can't you trade Manningham instead of cutting him? I like Nelson a lot but it seems like a waste to drop a guy some people are high on.
Click to expand...
With the salary cap it becomes difficult. Plus now with the concussion, I just don't think he's got a ton of value. I'll try though, good point.
 
This week could be an excellent start for Nelson. The Pats have really struggled against slot receivers. They've also really struggled against big receivers. Nelson happens to be a 6'5", 220lb slot receiver. :excited:

 
Thanks Sabertooth - great thread. Picked up Nelson last week. Remember what Gailey did to the Chiefs offense installing the spread with Thigpen? He revived a basemnt bottom offense there in KC. You want a piece of this offense - between Nelson and Jones... Nelson has Fitz's trust going back to last year and that was the tiebreaker for me. Funny - seems like Nelson could be this years Stevie Johnson! DO NOT sleep on him.

 
'Romofan said:
Thanks Sabertooth - great thread. Picked up Nelson last week. Remember what Gailey did to the Chiefs offense installing the spread with Thigpen? He revived a basemnt bottom offense there in KC. You want a piece of this offense - between Nelson and Jones... Nelson has Fitz's trust going back to last year and that was the tiebreaker for me. Funny - seems like Nelson could be this years Stevie Johnson! DO NOT sleep on him.
Click to expand...
I've hesitated to make that comparison but I agree with you.
 
I'm thinking of dropping Harvin for him, I just was hoping to see a bit more from Harvin week 2 and I am suffering.

 
'djcali said:
I'm thinking of dropping Harvin for him, I just was hoping to see a bit more from Harvin week 2 and I am suffering.
Click to expand...
:eek: Has Harvin's value fallen that much? I don't own him and haven't really followed him at all. I figured McNabb was all used up after last season.
 
Just a warning for you guys... Nelson is not a deep threat, all of his catches are in the Welker range, but he doesn't have that Welker quickness. And the Bills have yet to line him up outside this year

On the other hand, he is a very good target in the endzone.

Just be careful b/c you are gonna see a lot of 5 rec 52 yard games from him

 
'jonramz said:
Just a warning for you guys... Nelson is not a deep threat, all of his catches are in the Welker range, but he doesn't have that Welker quickness. And the Bills have yet to line him up outside this yearOn the other hand, he is a very good target in the endzone.Just be careful b/c you are gonna see a lot of 5 rec 52 yard games from him
Click to expand...
Also if you are in a PPR league he is a must add. In 2 games he was targeted 19 times.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'dharmapunk said:
I'm also thinking of starting him this week against the Pats.If Chad Henne can chuck 300+ yards against the Pats D, then Fitz and company should do the same and more. Nelson benefited with 10 recs in their shootout against Oakland. I'm predicting a similar game against the Pats. Start Nelson.
Click to expand...
Henne had 416Nelson not a rookieIs this like new misinformation schtick?
 
'rjv said:
'jonramz said:
Just a warning for you guys... Nelson is not a deep threat, all of his catches are in the Welker range, but he doesn't have that Welker quickness. And the Bills have yet to line him up outside this yearOn the other hand, he is a very good target in the endzone.Just be careful b/c you are gonna see a lot of 5 rec 52 yard games from him
Click to expand...
Also if you are in a PPR league he is a must add. In 2 games he was targeted 19 times.
Click to expand...
Exactly - should have prefaced he his more valuable in a ppr league (which is what I'm playing in - hence my exuberance). But I wouldn't really hesitate to get him in a non ppr as a WR3 or 4. Buffalo loves to pass near in the RZ....Fitzpatrick is #2 behind Brady in RZ Passing through 2 weeks!
 
'jonramz said:
Just a warning for you guys... Nelson is not a deep threat, all of his catches are in the Welker range, but he doesn't have that Welker quickness. And the Bills have yet to line him up outside this yearOn the other hand, he is a very good target in the endzone.Just be careful b/c you are gonna see a lot of 5 rec 52 yard games from him
Click to expand...
Exactly. He was used almost exclusively in the slot. However he made most of his catches while standing still. He did not really get loose on anything after the catch.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

eighsse2
Reception without Target?
Replies
15
Views
745
ignatiusjreilly
ignatiusjreilly
JohnnyU
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS
Replies
26
Views
1K
Loipz
L
Banger
Why do people care about aDOT?
Replies
22
Views
738
Biabreakable
Biabreakable

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top