Why I Think Adonai Mitchell is a WR2 in 2024 - Plus Talk On Going Against ADP (2 Viewers)

[jm192]

To clarify here:

Richardson threw 21 passes per game. Did he get knocked out of a game or 2?
He completed 12.5 passes per game. In fact, he had games of 24, 6, 11, 9 completions. He surpassed 12 completions once in 4 games.

I like Mitchell's talent. I don't know that I feel strongly that ARich can support two top 24 Fantasy WR's.

 

[Terpman22]

To clarify here:

Richardson threw 21 passes per game. Did he get knocked out of a game or 2?
He completed 12.5 passes per game. In fact, he had games of 24, 6, 11, 9 completions. He surpassed 12 completions once in 4 games.

I like Mitchell's talent. I don't know that I feel strongly that ARich can support two top 24 Fantasy WR's.

I have faith in Shane Steichen getting him up to speed. Has had success with pretty much every young QB he has coached so far in his career in the NFL.

 

[JohnnyU]

To clarify here:

Richardson threw 21 passes per game. Did he get knocked out of a game or 2?
He completed 12.5 passes per game. In fact, he had games of 24, 6, 11, 9 completions. He surpassed 12 completions once in 4 games.

I like Mitchell's talent. I don't know that I feel strongly that ARich can support two top 24 Fantasy WR's.

I have faith in Shane Steichen getting him up to speed. Has had success with pretty much every young QB he has coached so far in his career in the NFL.

I think Downs has a better chance of taking the next step than I do Mitchell hitting the ground running in 2024. I'm not convinced AR can support 3 WRs for consistent fantasy production. Not to mention I believe they still want to run the ball a lot.

 

[jm192]

To clarify here:

Richardson threw 21 passes per game. Did he get knocked out of a game or 2?
He completed 12.5 passes per game. In fact, he had games of 24, 6, 11, 9 completions. He surpassed 12 completions once in 4 games.

I like Mitchell's talent. I don't know that I feel strongly that ARich can support two top 24 Fantasy WR's.

I have faith in Shane Steichen getting him up to speed. Has had success with pretty much every young QB he has coached so far in his career in the NFL.

I think there's a big range between:

"Up to speed"

and

"supporting two top 24 fantasy receivers in 2024."

He averaged less than 13 completions per game. He averaged less than 150 passing yards per game. Supporting two top 24 guys seems like a MAJOR leap.
I think Richardson will be good for fantasy. I think logically, he'll be a better QB in his 2nd year.
I just think it's a really talk task to confidently declare he'll have two top 24 receivers.

Could AD Mitchell finish top 24? Sure. So could Rashod Bateman or Quentin Johnston. Just doesn't seem real likely.

 

[Terpman22]

To clarify here:

Richardson threw 21 passes per game. Did he get knocked out of a game or 2?
He completed 12.5 passes per game. In fact, he had games of 24, 6, 11, 9 completions. He surpassed 12 completions once in 4 games.

I like Mitchell's talent. I don't know that I feel strongly that ARich can support two top 24 Fantasy WR's.

I have faith in Shane Steichen getting him up to speed. Has had success with pretty much every young QB he has coached so far in his career in the NFL.

I think there's a big range between:

"Up to speed"

and

"supporting two top 24 fantasy receivers in 2024."

He averaged less than 13 completions per game. He averaged less than 150 passing yards per game. Supporting two top 24 guys seems like a MAJOR leap.
I think Richardson will be good for fantasy. I think logically, he'll be a better QB in his 2nd year.
I just think it's a really talk task to confidently declare he'll have two top 24 receivers.

Could AD Mitchell finish top 24? Sure. So could Rashod Bateman or Quentin Johnston. Just doesn't seem real likely.

Oh yeah. I'm not on the "AD will be a top 24-30 WR guy this year" train, but I do think eventually he will be a decent WR, may not happen until year 2 or 3 though. Downs may be OK this year, but going back to the steichen offense, he doesn't seem to traditionally feature a slot guy. I think this year may be the last year Downs puts up OK/respectable #s and eventually its more Pittman/AD mixed in with 35-50 catches by JT too

 

[osubuckeyeman]

AD will definitely become a value at some point, and honestly, I believe more in the Colts' offense than anything else. We need to see more, but if you do believe it will not get any cheaper than it is right now. We all have seen this offense when it is on point, and it most certainly can support multiple pieces.

 

[rockaction]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

I just came across this post and loved it for the latitude with which employees operate under the aegis of FBG. While it looks like Pierce actually has stepped up and become a WR2, Mitchell still intrigues me in dynasty and I’m interested in seeing this take.

 

[ATB]

What happens when Downs is back? Seems like a muddy situation with a bad QB.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

I just came across this post and loved it for the latitude with which employees operate under the aegis of FBG. While it looks like Pierce actually has stepped up and become a WR2, Mitchell still intrigues me in dynasty and I’m interested in seeing this take.

Is was the Footballguy's Draft Instant Reaction. Still early, but trending towards horribly wrong and some of the worse analysis of the year. The posters here correctly sniffed out the facts. Currently WR95 and Downs has been out. The one guy who was buried the deepest is now ranked as WR#8. Anyone using this information for drafts back in April have been sorely disappointed. Now if they had titled it Zareh's Instant Reaction or a Contrarian View On Mitchell I'd be fine with it. As it was written, it was FBG's opinion at the time.

Here's the list of guys Mitchell was being drafted around that he was supposed to crush...

- Xavier Worthy
· Khalil Shakir
· Tyler Lockett
· Jakobi Meyers
· Curtis Samuel
· Jameson Williams
· Romeo Doubs
· Mike Williams
· Courtland Sutton
· JSN

"One of the best things about fantasy football is finding the cracks in consensus ADP rather than strictly adhering to it and zigging when others zag. Finding value involves searching for certain indicators."

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

 

[rockaction]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

I just came across this post and loved it for the latitude with which employees operate under the aegis of FBG. While it looks like Pierce actually has stepped up and become a WR2, Mitchell still intrigues me in dynasty and I’m interested in seeing this take.

Is was the Footballguy's Draft Instant Reaction. Still early, but trending towards horribly wrong and some of the worse analysis of the year. The posters here correctly sniffed out the facts. Currently WR95 and Downs has been out. The one guy who was buried the deepest is now ranked as WR#8. Anyone using this information for drafts back in April have been sorely disappointed. Now if they had titled it Zareh's Instant Reaction or a Contrarian View On Mitchell I'd be fine with it. As it was written, it was FBG's opinion at the time.

Here's the list of guys Mitchell was being drafted around that he was supposed to crush...

- Xavier Worthy
· Khalil Shakir
· Tyler Lockett
· Jakobi Meyers
· Curtis Samuel
· Jameson Williams
· Romeo Doubs
· Mike Williams
· Courtland Sutton
· JSN

"One of the best things about fantasy football is finding the cracks in consensus ADP rather than strictly adhering to it and zigging when others zag. Finding value involves searching for certain indicators."

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

Fair enough. But this is not my point. I’m talking about how Joe treats his employees when they deviate from the norm, not whether the advice was good.

In fact, it’s part of my point that he (Zareh) is wrong in this instance so far.

 

[TampaMike19]

Dude is buried on the depth chart but is a better fit for the offense than Pittman and downs. So maybe a hold if pierce is hurt

 

[rockaction]

There is this from Week One from PFF

Adonai Mitchell kicks off his NFL career by separating at a high rate: The rookie Mitchell had a small sample of nine snaps where he could generate separation, but he did so on eight of them.

This is from their new "separation" metric, which measures when defenses are actually trying to stop the receiver from getting open as opposed to playing zone or off coverage.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

I just came across this post and loved it for the latitude with which employees operate under the aegis of FBG. While it looks like Pierce actually has stepped up and become a WR2, Mitchell still intrigues me in dynasty and I’m interested in seeing this take.

Is was the Footballguy's Draft Instant Reaction. Still early, but trending towards horribly wrong and some of the worse analysis of the year. The posters here correctly sniffed out the facts. Currently WR95 and Downs has been out. The one guy who was buried the deepest is now ranked as WR#8. Anyone using this information for drafts back in April have been sorely disappointed. Now if they had titled it Zareh's Instant Reaction or a Contrarian View On Mitchell I'd be fine with it. As it was written, it was FBG's opinion at the time.

Here's the list of guys Mitchell was being drafted around that he was supposed to crush...

- Xavier Worthy
· Khalil Shakir
· Tyler Lockett
· Jakobi Meyers
· Curtis Samuel
· Jameson Williams
· Romeo Doubs
· Mike Williams
· Courtland Sutton
· JSN

"One of the best things about fantasy football is finding the cracks in consensus ADP rather than strictly adhering to it and zigging when others zag. Finding value involves searching for certain indicators."

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

Fair enough. But this is not my point. I’m talking about how Joe treats his employees when they deviate from the norm, not whether the advice was good.

In fact, it’s part of my point that he (Zareh) is wrong in this instance so far.

I will concede that point. I just hope it results in this "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

 

[rockaction]

I will concede that point. I just hope it results in this "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

Yes, I will also concede your point that winning at FF is likely the number one reason for the subscription service. I think that sort of methodology (allowing for your individual employees to voice opinions provided they can be backed up) is conducive to winning. Things move fast. The non-performance through Week Two is probably not a good omen for Mitchell GMs, and ARich clearly vibes with APierce, but at the beginning of the year I would have been inclined to agree with Zareh. Glad I don't play redraft for real or I might have bought in and been disappointed.

But the point is that when guys like Sigmund (per a NYT article from ages ago) and Mike Clay are the furthest away from consensus while also still maintaining a high level of accuracy, I think that sort of deviation from the norm gives subscribers an advantage. Anybody can reprint consensus, but valid reasoning behind non-consensus choices gives the reader a leg up (IMO).

 

[Smack Tripper]

Who is Zareh? Was he a short term FBG?

 

[BassNBrew]

I will concede that point. I just hope it results in this "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

Yes, I will also concede your point that winning at FF is likely the number one reason for the subscription service. I think that sort of methodology (allowing for your individual employees to voice opinions provided they can be backed up) is conducive to winning. Things move fast. The non-performance through Week Two is probably not a good omen for Mitchell GMs, and ARich clearly vibes with APierce, but at the beginning of the year I would have been inclined to agree with Zareh. Glad I don't play redraft for real or I might have bought in and been disappointed.

But the point is that when guys like Sigmund (per a NYT article from ages ago) and Mike Clay are the furthest away from consensus while also still maintaining a high level of accuracy, I think that sort of deviation from the norm gives subscribers an advantage. Anybody can reprint consensus, but valid reasoning behind non-consensus choices gives the reader a leg up (IMO).

Not sure it's feasible, but what I'm looking for is for guys like Bloom to influence the stat guys and the stat guys to put a damper on Bloom. The final result would be product that results in you being more likely to acquired a Bloom recommendation but not spend 100% of you FA budget on a guy getting downgraded the following week. There's another Who's Ranking Do You Trust that's hitting on some of this.

 

[rockaction]

There's another Who's Ranking Do You Trust that's hitting on some of this.

I saw it and haven't read it. I'll check it out. I'll probably not talk too much about it because I'm sure staff reads this stuff and I don't like to make people feel bad—or inflate their tires unnecessarily!

But yeah, your request seems reasonable.

 

[Big Nate]

What happens when Downs is back? Seems like a muddy situation with a bad QB.

I think Downs is INDYs second best receiver right now after Pittman. Downs just can't stay healthy. Also it seems ARich and Pittman aren't on the same page yet this year and Arich would rather bomb it down field than look at Pittman.

Downs and Arich had good chemistry early last year and in rookie camp. Downs will surprise. Downs had basically 100 targets and 800 yards receiving in his rookie year. He's a good WR.

Problem with this offense is there might not be a lot of targets to go around each week. Too many good mouths to feed.

 

[Big Nate]

Dude is buried on the depth chart but is a better fit for the offense than Pittman and downs. So maybe a hold if pierce is hurt

I don't think he is a better fit (right now). He is a good weapon but right now Pittman and Downs are better receivers. Downs in his rookie year had 100 targets and nearly 800 yards. Very solid rookie season.

Nothing against AD but there are very good WRs ahead of him.

These rookies sometimes take time, especially when there are very good WRs ahead of him.

 

[JohnnyU]

I said previously, either in this thread, or another one, that I didn't think AR can support 3 WRs. Now I don't think he can support more than one, if any. You can't trust any of them in any given week. Downs will be back soon to muddy the waters for Mitchell even more.

 

[Dizzy]

I said previously, either in this thread, or another one, that I didn't think AR can support 3 WRs. Now I don't think he can support more than one, if any. You can't trust any of them in any given week. Downs will be back soon to muddy the waters for Mitchell even more.

This is spot on. Many times we get caught up in someone's talent/potential... but their actual production will come down to offensive philosophy (runass split), number of passes/game, number of completions/attempt, target distribution, and finally receptions/target. I think the best you can "hope for" in this case is that the pass offense gets better second half of the season and maybe Mitchell ascends to 2nd banana to Pittman.

Otherwise you're riding the rollercoaster of goose-eggs with a few boom games, but nothing consistent.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Now I don't think he can support more than one, if any.

This is the problem from what I’ve seen, agreed. He hasn’t looked good

 

[Gally]

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

I treat all fantasy analysis and opinion as information. If the piece was well presented with the how's and why's the writer is coming to their conclusions then it's a quality article regardless of the outcome. It's a piece to the puzzle and information for me to digest to come up with my own decision on where to place a guy in my rankings. If all I was looking for was an "expert" to tell me what to do then why do I need any methodology or process in the information?

However, well presented information with the writer's opinions based on his research gives me an opportunity to evaluate the process and the opinion. That has value whether it's right or wrong. In the end everyone is essentially guessing on what will happen. All information (with thoughtful reasoning behind it) is good and a piece to the puzzle.

In the end, I want to make my own decisions based on as much information as I can get and like @rockaction pointed out FBG's allows contributors to have various opinions and that is a good thing.

 

[Big Nate]

I said previously, either in this thread, or another one, that I didn't think AR can support 3 WRs. Now I don't think he can support more than one, if any. You can't trust any of them in any given week. Downs will be back soon to muddy the waters for Mitchell even more.

I agree with this. Game one only had 19 passes. Not a lot to go around.

FWIW my rankings (talent) wise on INDY right now:

Pittman > Downs > AD > Pierce

The thing the coaches love with Pierce is he works his *** off every day all day. He's just a grinder that has deep speed and good hands. He's not flashy but his work ethic and ability to make tough catches keep him on the field. Fantasy wise Pierce isn't consistent but they like what he brings to the table for the offense.

Things do get muddy when all 4 WRs are healthy. I bet AD ends up the 4th receiver this year as he is the rookie. Not taking anything away from ADs talent but that is how it goes.

 

[BassNBrew]

There's another Who's Ranking Do You Trust that's hitting on some of this.

I saw it and haven't read it. I'll check it out. I'll probably not talk too much about it because I'm sure staff reads this stuff and I don't like to make people feel bad—or inflate their tires unnecessarily!

But yeah, your request seems reasonable.

Did you notice FBG is offering a GOAT subscription level (I should have copyrighted that term when I first used it in the subscribe contest thread).

 

[BassNBrew]

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

I treat all fantasy analysis and opinion as information. If the piece was well presented with the how's and why's the writer is coming to their conclusions then it's a quality article regardless of the outcome. It's a piece to the puzzle and information for me to digest to come up with my own decision on where to place a guy in my rankings. If all I was looking for was an "expert" to tell me what to do then why do I need any methodology or process in the information?

However, well presented information with the writer's opinions based on his research gives me an opportunity to evaluate the process and the opinion. That has value whether it's right or wrong. In the end everyone is essentially guessing on what will happen. All information (with thorughtful reasoning behind it) is good and a piece to the puzzle.

In the end, I want to make my own decisions based on as much information as I can get and like @rockaction pointed out FBG's allows contributors to have various opinions and that is a good thing.

That's fine. All I'm asking for and bought up at the time was that articles not representing consensus opinion to state that in the title. ie: Zareh's Take on Mitchell, a Contrarian View on Mitchell. I really like the articles where they tabulate the opinions of several staff members and you see multiple votes for one opinion and a single vote for other opinions. All these guys bring value, but the most helpful outcome for the subscriber is for FBG to weigh weigh all these expert thoughts and provide guidance based on that as a company.

This is what FBG is selling - "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

Your methodology is great, but the goal here is to save time and win more. This article did neither. Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

 

[Gally]

Your methodology is great, but the goal here is to save time and win more. This article did neither. Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

I can understand where you are coming from. I can also see where one might be led astray a bit by how things are presented. I guess my philosophy has always been that all of this is just information and not to be taken as gospel so I have never really taken it as such.

From a business perspective it is an interesting conundrum. People are different and while I take it serious I also understand nobody knows what is going to happen. "Experts" in this FF field are nothing more than someone that is giving an opinion that is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right because there are so many variables that nobody can really account for (injuries, penalties, randomness, etc). But I also understand that in the real world people paying for a service like this may not feel the same way I do and expect pretty close to perfection in the calls these "experts" make. I mean that is what they are paying for. So managing expectations is probably a lot bigger of a concern in the business model than almost anything else and that is very hard to do.

 

[rockaction]

There's another Who's Ranking Do You Trust that's hitting on some of this.

I saw it and haven't read it. I'll check it out. I'll probably not talk too much about it because I'm sure staff reads this stuff and I don't like to make people feel bad—or inflate their tires unnecessarily!

But yeah, your request seems reasonable.

Did you notice FBG is offering a GOAT subscription level (I should have copyrighted that term when I first used it in the subscribe contest thread).

I did. I could have used it the other week, even though I'd say I don't need it. I sure did then.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

I treat all fantasy analysis and opinion as information. If the piece was well presented with the how's and why's the writer is coming to their conclusions then it's a quality article regardless of the outcome. It's a piece to the puzzle and information for me to digest to come up with my own decision on where to place a guy in my rankings. If all I was looking for was an "expert" to tell me what to do then why do I need any methodology or process in the information?

However, well presented information with the writer's opinions based on his research gives me an opportunity to evaluate the process and the opinion. That has value whether it's right or wrong. In the end everyone is essentially guessing on what will happen. All information (with thorughtful reasoning behind it) is good and a piece to the puzzle.

In the end, I want to make my own decisions based on as much information as I can get and like @rockaction pointed out FBG's allows contributors to have various opinions and that is a good thing.

That's fine. All I'm asking for and bought up at the time was that articles not representing consensus opinion to state that in the title. ie: Zareh's Take on Mitchell, a Contrarian View on Mitchell. I really like the articles where they tabulate the opinions of several staff members and you see multiple votes for one opinion and a single vote for other opinions. All these guys bring value, but the most helpful outcome for the subscriber is for FBG to weigh weigh all these expert thoughts and provide guidance based on that as a company.

This is what FBG is selling - "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

Your methodology is great, but the goal here is to save time and win more. This article did neither. Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

I'd hope that as long as you've been part of Footballguys, you'd know our goal isn't to provide the most opinions.

I do agree we can do better making it clear it's a writer's opinion and we should have been more clear on Zareh's feature.

Reading it, with Zareh writing in the first person, I thought that was clear it was his position when he said in the first person:

He should be expected to begin his career as a fantasy WR2, but his talent and upside could vault him to WR1 soon in his career. This is an aggressive view and I stand by it.

But if I know one thing, it's that one can never be too clear. We can be better there for sure.

We do a ton of player features written by one staffer. Like this on Josh Allen from Jason Wood. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-josh-allen-are-we-sure-hes-no-1-qb. In the same way, he talks in the first person of "My projections have him as the QB3, still part of the elite tier."

We can also likely add something to be even more clear on the player features and link to the staff rankings where they can see the Footballguys bottom line for our draft rankings.

Thanks for the feedback there.

 

[BassNBrew]

Your methodology is great, but the goal here is to save time and win more. This article did neither. Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

I can understand where you are coming from. I can also see where one might be led astray a bit by how things are presented. I guess my philosophy has always been that all of this is just information and not to be taken as gospel so I have never really taken it as such.

From a business perspective it is an interesting conundrum. People are different and while I take it serious I also understand nobody knows what is going to happen. "Experts" in this FF field are nothing more than someone that is giving an opinion that is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right because there are so many variables that nobody can really account for (injuries, penalties, randomness, etc). But I also understand that in the real world people paying for a service like this may not feel the same way I do and expect pretty close to perfection in the calls these "experts" make. I mean that is what they are paying for. So managing expectations is probably a lot bigger of a concern in the business model than almost anything else and that is very hard to do.

I think J is going to disagree with you here. If it's a coin flip, there's no reason to pay for the service. My belief is that as a group, these guys know more about FF than most and following their advice as a whole will lead to to more success. I believe the strength of this site is the collective wisdom of the group and not the individuals. It's J's problem/business challenge to harness and disseminate the information that saves time, make FF fun, and helps me win more.

 

[BassNBrew]

I for one can't applaud paid fantasy advice like this.

I treat all fantasy analysis and opinion as information. If the piece was well presented with the how's and why's the writer is coming to their conclusions then it's a quality article regardless of the outcome. It's a piece to the puzzle and information for me to digest to come up with my own decision on where to place a guy in my rankings. If all I was looking for was an "expert" to tell me what to do then why do I need any methodology or process in the information?

However, well presented information with the writer's opinions based on his research gives me an opportunity to evaluate the process and the opinion. That has value whether it's right or wrong. In the end everyone is essentially guessing on what will happen. All information (with thorughtful reasoning behind it) is good and a piece to the puzzle.

In the end, I want to make my own decisions based on as much information as I can get and like @rockaction pointed out FBG's allows contributors to have various opinions and that is a good thing.

That's fine. All I'm asking for and bought up at the time was that articles not representing consensus opinion to state that in the title. ie: Zareh's Take on Mitchell, a Contrarian View on Mitchell. I really like the articles where they tabulate the opinions of several staff members and you see multiple votes for one opinion and a single vote for other opinions. All these guys bring value, but the most helpful outcome for the subscriber is for FBG to weigh weigh all these expert thoughts and provide guidance based on that as a company.

This is what FBG is selling - "At Footballguys our goal is to help you save time, have more fun, and win more at Fantasy Football."

Your methodology is great, but the goal here is to save time and win more. This article did neither. Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

Now if the mission is to provide the most fantasy football opinions in one place then the statement should reflect that.

I'd hope that as long as you've been part of Footballguys, you'd know our goal isn't to provide the most opinions.

I do agree we can do better making it clear it's a writer's opinion and we should have been more clear on Zareh's feature.

Reading it, with Zareh writing in the first person, I thought that was clear it was his position when he said in the first person:

He should be expected to begin his career as a fantasy WR2, but his talent and upside could vault him to WR1 soon in his career. This is an aggressive view and I stand by it.

But if I know one thing, it's that one can never be too clear. We can be better there for sure.

We do a ton of player features written by one staffer. Like this on Josh Allen from Jason Wood. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-josh-allen-are-we-sure-hes-no-1-qb. In the same way, he talks in the first person of "My projections have him as the QB3, still part of the elite tier."

We can also likely add something to be even more clear on the player features and link to the staff rankings where they can see the Footballguys bottom line for our draft rankings.

Thanks for the feedback there.

I think this would be huge in cases where the writer knows they are sharing a minority opinion. A disclaimer at the end with a link to the FBG bottom line or a mention early on about where the FBG line stands and why they believe different.

 

[Gally]

I think J is going to disagree with you here. If it's a coin flip, there's no reason to pay for the service.

The reason to pay for the service is for the research they do and present. All of the actual outcomes are guesswork due to injuries, in game unpredictability (like penalties), and overall schedule luck that can't be accounted for by anyone (I am speaking from a season long perspective - DFS is much different as game theory and big tournament play has it's own set of parameters that matter).

Because of all the information out there from thousands of sites this game has become 95% luck. Everyone has the same information and things you cannot control end up being more important that knowing your stuff. That is not to say there is no value in knowing your stuff. I mean there is still 5% up for grabs but the actual impact that makes is very minor in the grand scheme of things.

Now many (especially those with services they are selling) will argue that the 5% is the make or break because they need to get subscribers and want you to believe you are getting this huge edge by listening to them. They are right to an extent. I just don't think the edge is really all that big of deal and using free cheatsheets and weekly rankings will get your in the game every week and with schedule luck and injury luck you have just as good a chance to win then everyone else.

I do pay for the FBG services. I enjoy the content but I treat it for what it is......a guess based on research. I don't expect perfection. I just want the information so I can feel like I know something to base my guesses on. That's the fun part for me. Afterall, this is just for entertainment in the end.

 

[BassNBrew]

Zareh appears to be correct that Downs wasn't much of a threat.

110	Josh Downs IND	23.0	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	22	7.3	0	5.2	5.2
111	Adonai Mitchell IND	22.0	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	32	16.0	0	1.7	5.2

 

[Chaka]

I think J is going to disagree with you here. If it's a coin flip, there's no reason to pay for the service.

The reason to pay for the service is for the research they do and present.

I get most of my value from the Shark Pool. It's where I learn about players, do research and help formulate my opinions.

But the Shark Pool is free to anyone, I pay for the service to help JB keep the lights on.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Zareh appears to be correct that Downs wasn't much of a threat.

110	Josh Downs IND	23.0	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	22	7.3	0	5.2	5.2
111	Adonai Mitchell IND	22.0	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	32	16.0	0	1.7	5.2

Mitchell played 64% of the snaps in week 1, 59% of the snaps in week 2, and only 13% of the snaps in week 3 when Downs returned. Downs played 59% of the snaps in week 3 while Ashton Dulin was in the game twice as much as Mitchell, so yes, it would seem Downs is very much a threat to Mitchell.

The problem here isn't Pittman, or Pierce, or Downs, or maybe even Mitchell to a certain degree, it's Richardson's lack of production and the number of mouths to feed in Indy. But the real issue for Mitchell is that even if Richardson gets it together, you can't score fantasy points from the bench. Pittman has proven his worth and as I've been howling at the moon for three weeks, Pierce has made the jump. He's becoming a legitimate every down threat at WR. Downs was very productive last year in his rookie season even with Gardner Minshew locked on to Pittman, and seems a perfect fit for the slot. Mitchell is the odd man out for now. His athleticism is off the charts amazing, but he has a lot to learn and improve before becoming a consistent productive NFL receiver. If the guys in front of him keep improving, he might need more than just improvement to see production. It's early, but so far he reeks of the ghost of Denzel Mims.

 

[BassNBrew]

Why were "we" so down on Pierce. Is it because he didn't make a jump last year under difficult circumstances? Is it because Downs show promise last year? Is it because Mitchell was a shiny new toy?

 

[Big Nate]

Why were "we" so down on Pierce. Is it because he didn't make a jump last year under difficult circumstances? Is it because Downs show promise last year? Is it because Mitchell was a shiny new toy?

Everyone always thinks the shiny new toy is going to come in and instantly overtake all the starters and get a full time role. The starters have shown they can play, know the playbook and the coaches trust them.

Doesn't mean the new toy isn't good if they don't play immediately, just means they might take some time and need an opportunity (injury etc).

I've been thinking about doing a post about overhyping rookies and the expectations coming out of the draft.

Not too long ago it used to be about the 3-year breakout for WRs.... Now if they don't produce in the first 2 weeks its over.

Look at Quinton Johnston starting to get more comfortable in the NFL - AND the new coaches are using him in areas he is better in, and can succeed in.

Mitchell has work to do, see if he can get at it.

 

[JohnnyU]

Having Mitchell as a WR2 or even #2 on this team right now is like having Katy Bates as your mistress.

 

[Big Nate]

Having Mitchell as a WR2 or even #2 on this team right now is like having Katy Bates as your mistress.

I posted my concerns with Mitchell back in April when this thread was started. I questioned whether he had it between the ears (effort, focus, determination). I think we can all agree he is extremely talented but there is more to it once you get to the NFL. Everyone is bigger, stronger, talented etc. It is the little stuff required to take it to the next level - see if he has what it takes. You can't just show up and step on the field like he did in college.

I thought he could eventually take over the #3 spot (Alec Pierce at wideout) but AP is going away without a fight. Guy just works hard and battles.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Why were "we" so down on Pierce. Is it because he didn't make a jump last year under difficult circumstances? Is it because Downs show promise last year? Is it because Mitchell was a shiny new toy?

I was never down on Pierce because his measurables were fantastic, he passed the eye test against NFL comp, there were terrific reports out of camp and he never really played with a QB that could take advantage of his elite ball skills.

For some, Pierce provided great draft value because groupthink kept many from looking beneath the surface with Pierce while allowing themselves to become enamored with Mitchell's athleticism.

 

[jm192]

Having Mitchell as a WR2 or even #2 on this team right now is like having Katy Bates as your mistress.

I posted my concerns with Mitchell back in April when this thread was started. I questioned whether he had it between the ears (effort, focus, determination). I think we can all agree he is extremely talented but there is more to it once you get to the NFL. Everyone is bigger, stronger, talented etc. It is the little stuff required to take it to the next level - see if he has what it takes. You can't just show up and step on the field like he did in college.

I thought he could eventually take over the #3 spot (Alec Pierce at wideout) but AP is going away without a fight. Guy just works hard and battles.

Real life football: I liked AD coming out of college, but I didn't expect him to be some immediate impact star. I think the talent is still there to a be a good NFL receiver. It may just take a year or two to figure everything out. I think he's got the talent and make up to become the #2 and maybe even the #1 if/when Pittman moves on.

Fantasy wise: I've been skeptical of Richardson's passing ability going back to college. I was worried about Pittman. I certainly don't think Richardson supports 2 fantasy relevant WR's. Richardson is currently completing 49% of 24.33 pass attempts per week. I always thought the premise of this thread was a bit "in your wildest dreams."

 

[Big Nate]

Having Mitchell as a WR2 or even #2 on this team right now is like having Katy Bates as your mistress.

I posted my concerns with Mitchell back in April when this thread was started. I questioned whether he had it between the ears (effort, focus, determination). I think we can all agree he is extremely talented but there is more to it once you get to the NFL. Everyone is bigger, stronger, talented etc. It is the little stuff required to take it to the next level - see if he has what it takes. You can't just show up and step on the field like he did in college.

I thought he could eventually take over the #3 spot (Alec Pierce at wideout) but AP is going away without a fight. Guy just works hard and battles.

Real life football: I liked AD coming out of college, but I didn't expect him to be some immediate impact star. I think the talent is still there to a be a good NFL receiver. It may just take a year or two to figure everything out. I think he's got the talent and make up to become the #2 and maybe even the #1 if/when Pittman moves on.

Fantasy wise: I've been skeptical of Richardson's passing ability going back to college. I was worried about Pittman. I certainly don't think Richardson supports 2 fantasy relevant WR's. Richardson is currently completing 49% of 24.33 pass attempts per week. I always thought the premise of this thread was a bit "in your wildest dreams."

If they can get Richardson to work within the schemes and offense I think there can be better times ahead. But it is rough for the pass catchers if he's only throwing it 20 times and half are caught. If the receiver doesn't score a TD they are in tough.

I think the coaches know ARich still needs time so they aren't passing it a ton. Remember this is basically still his rookie season as he doesn't have a full set of games in yet.

Back to what I said, everyone always wants instant success from these rookies. No one is patient with them, give them time to develop and get better. Then after 16 games they are deemed to "suck". Unfortunate, really unfortunate.

 

[JohnnyU]

Having Mitchell as a WR2 or even #2 on this team right now is like having Katy Bates as your mistress.

I posted my concerns with Mitchell back in April when this thread was started. I questioned whether he had it between the ears (effort, focus, determination). I think we can all agree he is extremely talented but there is more to it once you get to the NFL. Everyone is bigger, stronger, talented etc. It is the little stuff required to take it to the next level - see if he has what it takes. You can't just show up and step on the field like he did in college.

I thought he could eventually take over the #3 spot (Alec Pierce at wideout) but AP is going away without a fight. Guy just works hard and battles.

Real life football: I liked AD coming out of college, but I didn't expect him to be some immediate impact star. I think the talent is still there to a be a good NFL receiver. It may just take a year or two to figure everything out. I think he's got the talent and make up to become the #2 and maybe even the #1 if/when Pittman moves on.

Fantasy wise: I've been skeptical of Richardson's passing ability going back to college. I was worried about Pittman. I certainly don't think Richardson supports 2 fantasy relevant WR's. Richardson is currently completing 49% of 24.33 pass attempts per week. I always thought the premise of this thread was a bit "in your wildest dreams."

If they can get Richardson to work within the schemes and offense I think there can be better times ahead. But it is rough for the pass catchers if he's only throwing it 20 times and half are caught. If the receiver doesn't score a TD they are in tough.

I think the coaches know ARich still needs time so they aren't passing it a ton. Remember this is basically still his rookie season as he doesn't have a full set of games in yet.

Back to what I said, everyone always wants instant success from these rookies. No one is patient with them, give them time to develop and get better. Then after 16 games they are deemed to "suck". Unfortunate, really unfortunate.

I believe Steichen has dropped the ball. He should be having AR rollout more that plays to his strength to either pass or run. I also think his accuracy would improve with that scheme. Instead, I think Steichen is playing to his weakness by making him mostly a pocket passer and I think making him so inaccurate on short to medium range throws.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

@Joe Bryant and @BassNBrew ....

this probably goes in another thread but whatever....

I've been asking for years ...like years....like back to when it was fax machine ****....does FBG post any self evaluation stuff about their projections/rankings...season long....and maybe more more importantly weekly when it comes to WDIS stuff....where did they hit...where did they miss...(and more importantly .....why....good or bad).....pat yourself on the back when deserved ....but also say..."hey we aren't very hot/accurate right now"....these "experts on our staff aren't dialed in right now"....whatever....I know they have done some I changed my mind stuff....

I care about two things when I give you my money.........rankings before my draft....and then WDIS rankings throughout the year....and the WDIS stuff is almost more important...I want to know why you have JSN 10 spots higher then Jameson Williams this week....need more individual payer analysis EVERY week....articles are great....but I think attaching the significant stuff to the player profile with a quick click is huge....rankings without a explanation don't really mean much....we often need that bump on guys that are close and may be our flex decision....I don't want to have to filter by staffer....

as a FF player...if I give you my money....I have to have confidence that your projections are going to get me more wins then something I can get for free...

Joe....is FBG doing that...?...maybe you are....and I know the danger of posting an actual article every week on "how we did".....cause sometimes....maybe more often then not it could be bad....

week to week reflection and then also justification moving forward to me is the end all be all of why I want to give you my money....and to be honest....even tho a long time FBG part of why I don't subscribe anymore....

if you did a weekly "this is where we hit....and where we missed and this is probably why"....and what we learned so we will adjust moving forward that might help...

I get it...you can't factor in crazy game plans and game injuries, etc. that actually happen on game day....but when we give you our money....we are trusting that you are almost like pay for recommendation gambling dude with a 1-800 number....I want to be able to say FBG recommended I start X over Y and more times than not it paid off....

so this was a long way of saying......an easy Tuesday morning comparison of where you had them ranked that week compared to where they actually finished would be awesome....if you broke that down Individually across staffers that would be even better so we can see week to week who is most accurate and base our WDIS decisions accordingly...

if you don't have the time or man power to do that....well...then...thats another discussion....but weekly self evaluation like at most jobs is important and decent preview of future success...

 

[Joe Bryant]

@Joe Bryant and @BassNBrew ....

this probably goes in another thread but whatever....

I've been asking for years ...like years....like back to when it was fax machine ****....does FBG post any self evaluation stuff about their projections/rankings...season long....and maybe more more importantly weekly when it comes to WDIS stuff....where did they hit...where did they miss...(and more importantly .....why....good or bad).....pat yourself on the back when deserved ....but also say..."hey we aren't very hot/accurate right now"....these "experts on our staff aren't dialed in right now"....whatever....I know they have done some I changed my mind stuff....

I care about two things when I give you my money.........rankings before my draft....and then WDIS rankings throughout the year....and the WDIS stuff is almost more important...I want to know why you have JSN 10 spots higher then Jameson Williams this week....need more individual payer analysis EVERY week....articles are great....but I think attaching the significant stuff to the player profile with a quick click is huge....rankings without a explanation don't really mean much....we often need that bump on guys that are close and may be our flex decision....I don't want to have to filter by staffer....

as a FF player...if I give you my money....I have to have confidence that your projections are going to get me more wins then something I can get for free...

Joe....is FBG doing that...?...maybe you are....and I know the danger of posting an actual article every week on "how we did".....cause sometimes....maybe more often then not it could be bad....

week to week reflection and then also justification moving forward to me is the end all be all of why I want to give you my money....and to be honest....even tho a long time FBG part of why I don't subscribe anymore....

if you did a weekly "this is where we hit....and where we missed and this is probably why"....and what we learned so we will adjust moving forward that might help...

I get it...you can't factor in crazy game plans and game injuries, etc. that actually happen on game day....but when we give you our money....we are trusting that you are almost like pay for recommendation gambling dude with a 1-800 number....I want to be able to say FBG recommended I start X over Y and more times than not it paid off....

so this was a long way of saying......an easy Tuesday morning comparison of where you had them ranked that week compared to where they actually finished would be awesome....if you broke that down Individually across staffers that would be even better so we can see week to week who is most accurate and base our WDIS decisions accordingly...

if you don't have the time or man power to do that....well...then...thats another discussion....but weekly self evaluation like at most jobs is important and decent preview of future success...

Thanks. Yes, we've talked about something like this for a long time and have never done it as I've never found a scoring system I love.

When people do score us, we crush. 3 of our Staffers in the top 15 of Fantasy Pros ranking for 2023. Easily the best showing of any site. And we only have a few staffers that participate there. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/draft.php

We don't talk that up too much though as again, I don't love the scoring system they use.

We'll continue to look there for the future. Thanks.