WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (3 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

More importantly would you be adding your own money into the back of the Brinks truck?

All of it. And my hot sauce empire.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He'd throw in a whole case of Hot Sauce!

I’d kick in my entire inventory, broseph.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.

Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.

 

[Anarchy99]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.

Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.

Every situation is different. The Niners had more weapons and were more efficient (DAL had 103 more passing yards on 134 more targets last year). That caused Lamb to be force fed the ball. I agree with you that I doubt Aiyuk has the chops and skill set to be a truly elite WR1 somewhere. But the situations aren't exactly apples to apples. An interesting thought exercise would be to guess what each guy would have produced if they switched places. IMO, Aiyuk would have a lot more targets in DAL (with a reduced ypr), while Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets, a slightly higher ypr, and fewer TD. That will never happen, but it's fun to ponder over.

 

[Gally]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.

Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.

So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is. This is a team game and most of us here only care about the FF side of things in these discussions. I have a sneaky suspicion that Aiyuk has a much more important role with SF in more ways than just catching the football.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets

Not sure I agree with that assumption. Lamb is the type of player you design plays around.

In SF he’d be every bit as much of a focal point as CMC, IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is. This is a team game and most of us here only care about the FF side of things in these discussions. I have a sneaky suspicion that Aiyuk has a much more important role with SF in more ways than just catching the football.

This is a great point for sure. Also why Lamb would likely have more targets in SF than Aiyuk (who indeed is out there blocking for Deebo & CMC runs)

I still think it’d work - just means more Juice & Kittle blocking.

But it is a good point.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets

Not sure I agree with that assumption. Lamb is the type of player you design plays around.

In SF he’d be every bit as much of a focal point as CMC, IMO.

Total targets in DAL last year: 605. Total targets in SF last year: 471. On top of that, the Cowboys didn't have anyone close to CMC, Deebo, or Kittle on their offense. Combine all that, and I don't see Lamb getting the ball 149 times in the SF offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets

Not sure I agree with that assumption. Lamb is the type of player you design plays around.

In SF he’d be every bit as much of a focal point as CMC, IMO.

Total targets in DAL last year: 605. Total targets in SF last year: 471. On top of that, the Cowboys didn't have anyone close to CMC, Deebo, or Kittle on their offense. Combine all that, and I don't see Lamb getting the ball 149 times in the SF offense.

Probably true. Also Dak is more of a gunslinger than Brock.

 

[massraider]

Watson's restructure was a certainty in the spring, and they traded for, and signed Jeudy.

Haven't seen a rumor regarding the Browns that I trust. Post a link please

 

[Anarchy99]

Watson's restructure was a certainty in the spring, and they traded for, and signed Jeudy.

Haven't seen a rumor regarding the Browns that I trust. Post a link please

It's back to rumor, innuendo, and speculation.

Speculation Rising Cleveland Browns Could Be Back in On Brandon Aiyuk Trade

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Watson's restructure was a certainty in the spring, and they traded for, and signed Jeudy.

Haven't seen a rumor regarding the Browns that I trust. Post a link please

If Pretty Rickey didn’t tweet it, I’m not giving it any credibility.

 

[Wingnut]

Schefter on Cleveland/Aiyuk

x.com

twitter.com

Aiyuk has made an absolute mess of this offseason.

 

[Wingnut]

2nd day no show

Brandon Aiyuk is NOT on the practice field for the start of Thursday’s practice

x.com

twitter.com

 

[GreenNGold]

If he is really turning down $30M/year he must have some kind of mental issues going on.

That isn't true at all. There could be crazy low guarantees, or some really unattainable incentives to get to that 30 million.

Yep. Or the number of years.

I'm sticking with nutjob until I see evidence of otherwise

 

[zeeshan2]

[Nick Wagoner] #49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk again NOT on the practice field at the early open portion of Thursday’s practice.

 

[beef]

Aiyuk doesn't need practice. Stay fresh and rested for week 1.

 

[ChiefD]

He STILL hasn't signed?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He STILL hasn't signed?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He STILL hasn't signed?

Just waiting for the right time I'm sure.

 

[H8fulHuck]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.

Back up the truck and sign him already.

It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage

Worth noting CeeDee #18 DYAR from outside. Aiyuk #14 in the slot.
Also wonder, who is the better blocker on run plays? Hmmm.

Top 20 WR DYAR from Wide, 2023
Player	Team	Tgt	DYAR	DVOA
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	80	389	49.4%
Tyreek Hill	MIA	106	382	31.3%
Nico Collins	HOU	86	335	38.7%
A.J. Brown	PHI	139	292	14.9%
D.K. Metcalf	SEA	112	284	18.9%
Mike Evans	TB	106	265	19.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	66	259	37.7%
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	75	236	28.2%
Puka Nacua	LAR	123	227	11.1%
Stefon Diggs	BUF	103	224	15.3%
Justin Jefferson	MIN	70	220	26.1%
D.J. Moore	CHI	105	217	14.3%
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	96	206	14.3%
Keenan Allen	LAC	79	204	21.3%
Tank Dell	HOU	61	198	29.0%
Josh Reynolds	DET	58	194	28.1%
Calvin Ridley	JAX	119	182	6.8%
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	84	179	15.1%
Gabriel Davis	BUF	64	168	21.8%
Courtland Sutton	DEN	74	163	15.1%

Top 20 WR DYAR from Slot, 2023
Player	Team	Tgt	DYAR	DVOA
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	98	277	23.0%
Jayden Reed	GB	61	188	27.6%
Rashee Rice	KC	44	186	40.7%
DeVonta Smith	PHI	40	167	39.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	94	160	9.0%
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	21	151	75.4%
Christian Kirk	JAX	68	134	12.1%
Brandin Cooks	DAL	26	134	52.2%
Tyreek Hill	MIA	63	117	12.0%
Michael Wilson	ARI	12	103	97.4%
D.J. Moore	CHI	31	99	26.2%
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	52	93	9.9%
Jakobi Meyers	LV	26	91	31.9%
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	25	89	31.4%
Darius Slayton	NYG	16	84	54.8%
Chris Godwin	TB	48	83	9.7%
Nico Collins	HOU	24	82	31.9%
Keenan Allen	LAC	71	77	1.1%
Tee Higgins	CIN	15	76	49.3%
Josh Palmer	LAC	24	75	25.6%

 

[Soulfly3]

Let's play GM for the Browns for a minute. After converting Watson's contract to bonus money and setting his 2024 salary at $1.121 million, Cleveland now has the most cap space in the NFL with $62 million for this season. What would the purpose be if they WEREN'T looking to take on a big contract? Granted, it is Cleveland, so logic may in short supply, but why redo Watson's contract for this season if they weren't going to make a splash and bring in a big name?

TRENT WILLIAMS

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.

Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.

Back up the truck and sign him already.

It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage

Worth noting CeeDee #18 DYAR from outside. Aiyuk #14 in the slot.
Also wonder, who is the better blocker on run plays? Hmmm.

Top 20 WR DYAR from Wide, 2023
Player	Team	Tgt	DYAR	DVOA
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	80	389	49.4%
Tyreek Hill	MIA	106	382	31.3%
Nico Collins	HOU	86	335	38.7%
A.J. Brown	PHI	139	292	14.9%
D.K. Metcalf	SEA	112	284	18.9%
Mike Evans	TB	106	265	19.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	66	259	37.7%
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	75	236	28.2%
Puka Nacua	LAR	123	227	11.1%
Stefon Diggs	BUF	103	224	15.3%
Justin Jefferson	MIN	70	220	26.1%
D.J. Moore	CHI	105	217	14.3%
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	96	206	14.3%
Keenan Allen	LAC	79	204	21.3%
Tank Dell	HOU	61	198	29.0%
Josh Reynolds	DET	58	194	28.1%
Calvin Ridley	JAX	119	182	6.8%
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	84	179	15.1%
Gabriel Davis	BUF	64	168	21.8%
Courtland Sutton	DEN	74	163	15.1%

Top 20 WR DYAR from Slot, 2023
Player	Team	Tgt	DYAR	DVOA
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	98	277	23.0%
Jayden Reed	GB	61	188	27.6%
Rashee Rice	KC	44	186	40.7%
DeVonta Smith	PHI	40	167	39.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	94	160	9.0%
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	21	151	75.4%
Christian Kirk	JAX	68	134	12.1%
Brandin Cooks	DAL	26	134	52.2%
Tyreek Hill	MIA	63	117	12.0%
Michael Wilson	ARI	12	103	97.4%
D.J. Moore	CHI	31	99	26.2%
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	52	93	9.9%
Jakobi Meyers	LV	26	91	31.9%
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	25	89	31.4%
Darius Slayton	NYG	16	84	54.8%
Chris Godwin	TB	48	83	9.7%
Nico Collins	HOU	24	82	31.9%
Keenan Allen	LAC	71	77	1.1%
Tee Higgins	CIN	15	76	49.3%
Josh Palmer	LAC	24	75	25.6%

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,

Maybe that was a flukish good year, and not what we should expect, since looking at his other 2 seasons, it's kinda flukish?

I'm just saying. No disrespect to the math - it checks out. But it's also a lot of puffery because it's much more likely that if Aiyuk had 149 touches, his YPC would likely come back to earth a bit.

 

[GreenNGold]

It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage

Right or wrong, DVOA scores and DYAR stats don't pay the bills, catches, yards, and TD's do. The proven elite guys have also produced as the clear #1 option against top defenders. Aiyuk has potential to be elite, I don't think he has proven he is yet.

 

[Wingnut]

Just trade him for a bag of chips and let him be someone elses problem.

 

[jumper]

Just trade him for a bag of chips and let him be someone elses problem.

Crazy trade overpays generally only seem to happen for QBs if they happen at all. SF seems like they're willing to do the LeVeon Bell thing here and get zero production out of the guy rather than make a slight overpay (in their POV) for Aiyuk. Having Bell sit for the season didn't appreciably help the Steelers long term, and risking Aiyuk doing something similar isn't going to help the Niners either.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just trade him for a bag of chips and let him be someone elses problem.

This where I’m at right now.

And to add further annoyance, just read that a CLE deal was essentially a done deal but Aiyuk put the kibosh on it. 3 WEEKS AGO!

 

[Anarchy99]

We are about to hit 50 pages, and I don't really feel like searching through the whole thread. Has there been a definitive outline of what Aiyuk wants out of this (dollars / signing bonus / guarantees / total years)? There were reports he wanted to stay, then he wanted to go and potential trades and contracts were lined up, then he was ready to sign an extension to stay, then more rumors about a trade.

Here in NE, it was reported the Patriots offered him $32M a year with a ton guaranteed (and would have gone higher). But he didn't want to play for the Pats. It seems like the goal posts keep moving on what Aiyuk supposedly wants (or how the media is framing things), even though I haven't seen exact details of his demands. As others have said, maybe it's just a case of SFO won't do anything until they figure out what they are doing with Trent Williams.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It seems like the goal posts keep moving on what Aiyuk supposedly wants

This has been a consistent theme throughout.

Reportedly the 49ers didn’t even know what his demands were after weeks of negotiating.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

He likely wants to go to a contender (or stay in SF) AND be paid Jefferson/Lamb $$$$.

I just had a terrible thought though...this feels like he's turning into Antonio Brown. I may regret drafting him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He likely wants to go to a contender (or stay in SF) AND be paid Jefferson/Lamb $$$$.

I just had a terrible thought though...this feels like he's turning into Antonio Brown. I may regret drafting him.

Feel much relief having dealt him last year to get pieces for my playoff run & eventual championship.

I have 0 shares, and at this point I’m glad about that. Feel a little for the team I dealt him to, but it’ll probably work out for him long term.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.

 

[sm8680]

As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.

Great point on Brandon.

I also liked the 49'ers picked up of Terrace Marshall Jr. Who in my opinion is why the practice squad was invented. The guy has upside and if anyone can unlock him it's Kyle.

 

[houston]

So for those of us rostering him…….If he doesn’t play week 1, would he be listed out in a way that would make him IR eligible on the various sites? Do ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo handle this differently?

 

[Tau837]

So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is.

Sure, try to reason that out. The SF offense gained x yards. How much of x can we attribute to a single WR's blocking? We have to attribute credit to the QB, OL, FB, TE, and other WRs, as well as the ballcarrier... and we have to consider the quality of the opposing defense and the quality of the offensive playcalling. What do you figure, 5-10 yards per game due exclusively to Aiyuk's blocking? I think that is more than generous. So maybe ~85-170 yards per season? Does that make up for the difference in receiving production between Lamb and Aiyuk?

 

[IHEARTFF]

And scene

 

[IHEARTFF]

4/120

 

[FantasyMC]

Signs 4 year $120 mil, $76M guaranteed

 

[Deamon]

Damn that's a lot of money.

 

[Deamon]

Chase is gonna get PAID now or else likely hold out into the season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.

I’d say Trent is the #1 most important, even ahead of CMC.

No Trent, no wins. Facts.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Damn that's a lot of money.

Jerry playing 3d chess

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Signs 4 year $120 mil, $76M guaranteed

Where was it reported? I assume he’s staying in SF?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So for those of us rostering him…….If he doesn’t play week 1, would he be listed out in a way that would make him IR eligible on the various sites? Do ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo handle this differently?

Nope. Dead weight. “H” designation doesn’t qualify for league IR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

4/120

Holy smokes.

 

[Deamon]

Damn that's a lot of money.

Jerry playing 3d chess

Rice or Jones?! If you mean Jones, he handled the Lamb situation pretty poorly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Signs 4 year $120 mil, $76M guaranteed

Where was it reported? I assume he’s staying in SF?

Adam Schefter. San Francisco.

Now pay Trent and let’s go win the damn Super Bowl.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

#RIP Pretty Ricky’s street cred.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Too much for him imo but they had to as their window is now. I don't love their chances once Williams, CMC and others age out/move on.

 

[Gally]

So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is.

Sure, try to reason that out. The SF offense gained x yards. How much of x can we attribute to a single WR's blocking? We have to attribute credit to the QB, OL, FB, TE, and other WRs, as well as the ballcarrier... and we have to consider the quality of the opposing defense and the quality of the offensive playcalling. What do you figure, 5-10 yards per game due exclusively to Aiyuk's blocking? I think that is more than generous. So maybe ~85-170 yards per season? Does that make up for the difference in receiving production between Lamb and Aiyuk?

My point was Aiyuk has an importance to what SF does beyond just catching passes. His blocking prowess enables many of the big plays (all long with others for sure) and not many WR's in the NFL can block like Aiyuk. It is one of the things he does best.