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WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (2 Viewers)

Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.
Click to expand...
Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.
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Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.
Click to expand...
Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.
Click to expand...
Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.
Click to expand...
Every situation is different. The Niners had more weapons and were more efficient (DAL had 103 more passing yards on 134 more targets last year). That caused Lamb to be force fed the ball. I agree with you that I doubt Aiyuk has the chops and skill set to be a truly elite WR1 somewhere. But the situations aren't exactly apples to apples. An interesting thought exercise would be to guess what each guy would have produced if they switched places. IMO, Aiyuk would have a lot more targets in DAL (with a reduced ypr), while Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets, a slightly higher ypr, and fewer TD. That will never happen, but it's fun to ponder over.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.
Click to expand...
Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.
Click to expand...
Yes, that’s how math works for sure. Now do Aiyuk’s career average vs Lamb’s career average. Probably a little different.

Also put Aiyuk on a team with a mediocre WR2, and struggling run game & tell me he performs at the same level as Lamb when he’s “the dude”.

A lot of Aiyuk’s efficiency came from being wide open since defenses also had Deebo, Kittle, & CMC to worry about.
Click to expand...
So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is. This is a team game and most of us here only care about the FF side of things in these discussions. I have a sneaky suspicion that Aiyuk has a much more important role with SF in more ways than just catching the football.
 
Gally said:
So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is. This is a team game and most of us here only care about the FF side of things in these discussions. I have a sneaky suspicion that Aiyuk has a much more important role with SF in more ways than just catching the football.
Click to expand...
This is a great point for sure. Also why Lamb would likely have more targets in SF than Aiyuk (who indeed is out there blocking for Deebo & CMC runs)

I still think it’d work - just means more Juice & Kittle blocking.

But it is a good point.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Anarchy99 said:
Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets
Click to expand...
Not sure I agree with that assumption. Lamb is the type of player you design plays around.

In SF he’d be every bit as much of a focal point as CMC, IMO.
Click to expand...
Total targets in DAL last year: 605. Total targets in SF last year: 471. On top of that, the Cowboys didn't have anyone close to CMC, Deebo, or Kittle on their offense. Combine all that, and I don't see Lamb getting the ball 149 times in the SF offense.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Anarchy99 said:
Lamb in SF would have had a lot fewer targets
Click to expand...
Not sure I agree with that assumption. Lamb is the type of player you design plays around.

In SF he’d be every bit as much of a focal point as CMC, IMO.
Click to expand...
Total targets in DAL last year: 605. Total targets in SF last year: 471. On top of that, the Cowboys didn't have anyone close to CMC, Deebo, or Kittle on their offense. Combine all that, and I don't see Lamb getting the ball 149 times in the SF offense.
Click to expand...
Probably true. Also Dak is more of a gunslinger than Brock.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.
Click to expand...
Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Back up the truck and sign him already.

It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage

Worth noting CeeDee #18 DYAR from outside. Aiyuk #14 in the slot.
Also wonder, who is the better blocker on run plays? Hmmm.

Top 20 WR DYAR from Wide, 2023
PlayerTeamTgtDYARDVOA
Brandon AiyukSF8038949.4%
Tyreek HillMIA10638231.3%
Nico CollinsHOU8633538.7%
A.J. BrownPHI13929214.9%
D.K. MetcalfSEA11228418.9%
Mike EvansTB10626519.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET6625937.7%
Jaylen WaddleMIA7523628.2%
Puka NacuaLAR12322711.1%
Stefon DiggsBUF10322415.3%
Justin JeffersonMIN7022026.1%
D.J. MooreCHI10521714.3%
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN9620614.3%
Keenan AllenLAC7920421.3%
Tank DellHOU6119829.0%
Josh ReynoldsDET5819428.1%
Calvin RidleyJAX1191826.8%
CeeDee LambDAL8417915.1%
Gabriel DavisBUF6416821.8%
Courtland SuttonDEN7416315.1%

Top 20 WR DYAR from Slot, 2023
PlayerTeamTgtDYARDVOA
CeeDee LambDAL9827723.0%
Jayden ReedGB6118827.6%
Rashee RiceKC4418640.7%
DeVonta SmithPHI4016739.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET941609.0%
Dontayvion WicksGB2115175.4%
Christian KirkJAX6813412.1%
Brandin CooksDAL2613452.2%
Tyreek HillMIA6311712.0%
Michael WilsonARI1210397.4%
D.J. MooreCHI319926.2%
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN52939.9%
Jakobi MeyersLV269131.9%
Brandon AiyukSF258931.4%
Darius SlaytonNYG168454.8%
Chris GodwinTB48839.7%
Nico CollinsHOU248231.9%
Keenan AllenLAC71771.1%
Tee HigginsCIN157649.3%
Josh PalmerLAC247525.6%
 
Anarchy99 said:
Let's play GM for the Browns for a minute. After converting Watson's contract to bonus money and setting his 2024 salary at $1.121 million, Cleveland now has the most cap space in the NFL with $62 million for this season. What would the purpose be if they WEREN'T looking to take on a big contract? Granted, it is Cleveland, so logic may in short supply, but why redo Watson's contract for this season if they weren't going to make a splash and bring in a big name?
Click to expand...

TRENT WILLIAMS
 
Grid71 said:
Anarchy99 said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If Lamb were a Niner asking for a massive restructure, I would personally volunteer to drive the Brinks truck to his doorstep.
Click to expand...
Lamb had 1862 YFS and 14 TD on 149 touches last year. Aiyuk had 1342 YFS and 7 TD on 75 touches. I'm not suggesting that Aiyuk is better than Lamb, but projecting Aiyuk's production with a similar amount of touches, he would have had 2666 YFS and 14 TD.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Back up the truck and sign him already.

It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage

Worth noting CeeDee #18 DYAR from outside. Aiyuk #14 in the slot.
Also wonder, who is the better blocker on run plays? Hmmm.

Top 20 WR DYAR from Wide, 2023
PlayerTeamTgtDYARDVOA
Brandon AiyukSF8038949.4%
Tyreek HillMIA10638231.3%
Nico CollinsHOU8633538.7%
A.J. BrownPHI13929214.9%
D.K. MetcalfSEA11228418.9%
Mike EvansTB10626519.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET6625937.7%
Jaylen WaddleMIA7523628.2%
Puka NacuaLAR12322711.1%
Stefon DiggsBUF10322415.3%
Justin JeffersonMIN7022026.1%
D.J. MooreCHI10521714.3%
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN9620614.3%
Keenan AllenLAC7920421.3%
Tank DellHOU6119829.0%
Josh ReynoldsDET5819428.1%
Calvin RidleyJAX1191826.8%
CeeDee LambDAL8417915.1%
Gabriel DavisBUF6416821.8%
Courtland SuttonDEN7416315.1%

Top 20 WR DYAR from Slot, 2023
PlayerTeamTgtDYARDVOA
CeeDee LambDAL9827723.0%
Jayden ReedGB6118827.6%
Rashee RiceKC4418640.7%
DeVonta SmithPHI4016739.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET941609.0%
Dontayvion WicksGB2115175.4%
Christian KirkJAX6813412.1%
Brandin CooksDAL2613452.2%
Tyreek HillMIA6311712.0%
Michael WilsonARI1210397.4%
D.J. MooreCHI319926.2%
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN52939.9%
Jakobi MeyersLV269131.9%
Brandon AiyukSF258931.4%
Darius SlaytonNYG168454.8%
Chris GodwinTB48839.7%
Nico CollinsHOU248231.9%
Keenan AllenLAC71771.1%
Tee HigginsCIN157649.3%
Josh PalmerLAC247525.6%
Click to expand...


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,

Maybe that was a flukish good year, and not what we should expect, since looking at his other 2 seasons, it's kinda flukish?

I'm just saying. No disrespect to the math - it checks out. But it's also a lot of puffery because it's much more likely that if Aiyuk had 149 touches, his YPC would likely come back to earth a bit.
 
Grid71 said:
It's baffling people trying to say Aiyuk isn't elite. In 2023, he had the highest DVOA score for 100 or more targets in a season from 1981 to 2023. #2 is Jerry Rice X

DYAR stats, CeeDee Lamb is the #1 slot WR in the league by a mile. Out wide, Aiyuk is the #1 WR from a DYAR lens just edging out Tyreek. While both are impressive, it's more impressive to win consistently from outside compared to slot. linkage
Click to expand...

Right or wrong, DVOA scores and DYAR stats don't pay the bills, catches, yards, and TD's do. The proven elite guys have also produced as the clear #1 option against top defenders. Aiyuk has potential to be elite, I don't think he has proven he is yet.
 
Wingnut said:
Just trade him for a bag of chips and let him be someone elses problem.
Click to expand...

Crazy trade overpays generally only seem to happen for QBs if they happen at all. SF seems like they're willing to do the LeVeon Bell thing here and get zero production out of the guy rather than make a slight overpay (in their POV) for Aiyuk. Having Bell sit for the season didn't appreciably help the Steelers long term, and risking Aiyuk doing something similar isn't going to help the Niners either.
 
We are about to hit 50 pages, and I don't really feel like searching through the whole thread. Has there been a definitive outline of what Aiyuk wants out of this (dollars / signing bonus / guarantees / total years)? There were reports he wanted to stay, then he wanted to go and potential trades and contracts were lined up, then he was ready to sign an extension to stay, then more rumors about a trade.

Here in NE, it was reported the Patriots offered him $32M a year with a ton guaranteed (and would have gone higher). But he didn't want to play for the Pats. It seems like the goal posts keep moving on what Aiyuk supposedly wants (or how the media is framing things), even though I haven't seen exact details of his demands. As others have said, maybe it's just a case of SFO won't do anything until they figure out what they are doing with Trent Williams.
 
He likely wants to go to a contender (or stay in SF) AND be paid Jefferson/Lamb $$$$.

I just had a terrible thought though...this feels like he's turning into Antonio Brown. I may regret drafting him.
 
BLOCKED_PUNT said:
He likely wants to go to a contender (or stay in SF) AND be paid Jefferson/Lamb $$$$.

I just had a terrible thought though...this feels like he's turning into Antonio Brown. I may regret drafting him.
Click to expand...
Feel much relief having dealt him last year to get pieces for my playoff run & eventual championship.

I have 0 shares, and at this point I’m glad about that. Feel a little for the team I dealt him to, but it’ll probably work out for him long term.
 
As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.
 
Jacob's Ladder said:
As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.
Click to expand...


Great point on Brandon.

I also liked the 49'ers picked up of Terrace Marshall Jr. Who in my opinion is why the practice squad was invented. The guy has upside and if anyone can unlock him it's Kyle.
 
So for those of us rostering him…….If he doesn’t play week 1, would he be listed out in a way that would make him IR eligible on the various sites? Do ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo handle this differently?
 
Gally said:
So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is.
Click to expand...

Sure, try to reason that out. The SF offense gained x yards. How much of x can we attribute to a single WR's blocking? We have to attribute credit to the QB, OL, FB, TE, and other WRs, as well as the ballcarrier... and we have to consider the quality of the opposing defense and the quality of the offensive playcalling. What do you figure, 5-10 yards per game due exclusively to Aiyuk's blocking? I think that is more than generous. So maybe ~85-170 yards per season? Does that make up for the difference in receiving production between Lamb and Aiyuk? :no:
 
Last edited:
Jacob's Ladder said:
As a Pearsall owner, I say trade Aiyuk for whatever you can get.

NFL reality, paying him would be dumb. He's a good player, but top WRs are coming out of college faster than Willy Wonka can churn out chocolate. I have nothing else to add on that.

Now Trent? Give the man whatever the F he wants. You're a different team without him. Outside of CMC, he's the most important player on your offense. Ask Saquan Barkley what it's like to run behind a sub par offensive line.
Click to expand...
I’d say Trent is the #1 most important, even ahead of CMC.

No Trent, no wins. Facts.
 
houston said:
So for those of us rostering him…….If he doesn’t play week 1, would he be listed out in a way that would make him IR eligible on the various sites? Do ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo handle this differently?
Click to expand...
Nope. Dead weight. “H” designation doesn’t qualify for league IR.
 
Tau837 said:
Gally said:
So now add in how many yards/TD's does Aiyuk's down field blocking in SF scheme produce where Lamb isn't nearly the blocker that Aiyuk is.
Click to expand...

Sure, try to reason that out. The SF offense gained x yards. How much of x can we attribute to a single WR's blocking? We have to attribute credit to the QB, OL, FB, TE, and other WRs, as well as the ballcarrier... and we have to consider the quality of the opposing defense and the quality of the offensive playcalling. What do you figure, 5-10 yards per game due exclusively to Aiyuk's blocking? I think that is more than generous. So maybe ~85-170 yards per season? Does that make up for the difference in receiving production between Lamb and Aiyuk? :no:
Click to expand...
My point was Aiyuk has an importance to what SF does beyond just catching passes. His blocking prowess enables many of the big plays (all long with others for sure) and not many WR's in the NFL can block like Aiyuk. It is one of the things he does best.
 
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