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WR Curtis Samuel, BUF (1 Viewer)

Team Smokin' said:
The Frankman said:

Curtis Samuel caught 8-of-11 targets for 55 yards and one touchdown in the Commanders' Week 1 win over the Jaguars, adding five carries for 17 yards.​


Samuel made a statement in his long-awaited return to the field, totaling seven touches on the Commander's opening drive while closing it out with a three-yard receiving touchdown. Samuel saw work as both a receiver and running back today, looking explosive at times out of the backfield. Washington relied on Samuel heavily in this one, as he accounted for five first downs while also leading the team in receptions. Samuel's ability to impact a game has never been in doubt, as his versatility was on display throughout this one. If the volume we saw today is sustainable going forward, Samuel could be in the conversation as a weekly WR2. We'll play this on the safe side by calling him a high-end WR3 heading into next week's game at Detroit, but this was an encouraging return for the sixth-year pro.
- NBCSportsEDGE
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What's not to like here? My gut says go get him. A possible WR #2 player who will get a fair share of weekly rushes. Wentz very capable. It's WAS football team that scares people away from drafting them. Looks like a balanced team of talent on offense.
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It surely looks like he’s going to be a big part of the offense. Seems like he’s a better version of McKissic and will take a bunch of those targets.
 
I didn’t know a ton of Samuel but heard some buzz and looked at his highlights from last week and he may end up being a steal looking back.

The way I see it…he’s got a Deebo type role, 4 carries and 11 targets. He was electric after the catch and Wentz loves the short game and he’ll be a safety valve. They will likely be in shootouts in the 4th quarter fairly often.

was debating about dropping Cooper or Toney and dropped Cooper. I have AJ Brown, JUJU and Amon-Ra. I figured Cooper has a higher floor and is safer than Toney but Toney has upside that Cooper doesn’t IMO. Was a tough call… We’ll see what happens…

Back to Samuel…He can be a PPR monster if things break right.
 
Could be a PPR flex go to. Although when Robinson comes back, it could throw a wrinkle in it. Also it seems like there’s a lot of pass options which is consenting. Samuel seems like he could be schemed targets which is nice. His depth of target though is Rondale Moore level though. He’s going to need a lot of touches to produce.

In other words I have no idea what to make of him.
 

Curtis Samuel caught 7-of-10 targets for 48 yards in the Commanders' Week 3 loss to the Eagles, adding three rushes for 13 yards.​

Samuel now has a team-leading 30 targets through three games. His usage is no fluke: Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner is determined to use Samuel at and around the line of scrimmage as a dump-off option for Carson Wentz. Many of his touches have been by design, giving Samuel a safe weekly PPR floor in a pass-first Washington offense. With 22 receptions through three games, Samuel should be viewed as a PPR WR2 play in Week 4 against the Cowboys.
Sep 25, 2022, 6:25 PM ET
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Banger said:
I didn’t know a ton of Samuel but heard some buzz and looked at his highlights from last week and he may end up being a steal looking back.

The way I see it…he’s got a Deebo type role, 4 carries and 11 targets. He was electric after the catch and Wentz loves the short game and he’ll be a safety valve. They will likely be in shootouts in the 4th quarter fairly often.

was debating about dropping Cooper or Toney and dropped Cooper. I have AJ Brown, JUJU and Amon-Ra. I figured Cooper has a higher floor and is safer than Toney but Toney has upside that Cooper doesn’t IMO. Was a tough call… We’ll see what happens…

Back to Samuel…He can be a PPR monster if things break right.
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Could not be happier after 2 weeks. He’s exactly what i hoped he’d be. seems like on a touch basis he basically equals McLaurin + Dotson…I’ll be curious to check the stats tomorrow. Regardless, he’s a top 15ish wr with good upside….
 

Curtis Samuel (illness) did not practice Wednesday.​

Samuel's illness is reportedly of the non-COVID variety. He would seem to have a good chance to play in Week 5 against the Titans, one of the worst coverage teams in the NFL this season. Curtis leads Washington with a 22 percent target share and 26 catches through four games. He's a viable WR2/3 in PPR leagues going forward.
SOURCE: John Keim on Twitter
Oct 5, 2022, 12:27 PM ET
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Curtis Samuel (illness) returned to practice Friday.​

Fox Sports' Ralph Vacchiano reports that Samuel will play on Sunday. Ron Rivera said that the wideout was "achy" today. With Jahan Dotson out and Logan Thomas questionable, Samuel and Terry McLaurin will have target volume on their side in Week 5's matchup against the Titans.
SOURCE: Ralph Vacchiano on Twitter
Oct 7, 2022, 1:04 PM ET
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What do we think Curtis Samuel's outlook is with Taylor Heinicke over the next four weeks.

Washington does not seem to be getting him the ball near as much as the first 3 or 4 weeks. Do we think Heinicke will be better at the short/intermediate passes or will he just throw bombs to McLaurin when he is in trouble??
 

Curtis Samuel caught 5-of-8 targets for 53 yards and rushed five times for 26 yards in the Commanders' Week 7 win over the Packers.​


He was a key part of the game plan with Jahan Dotson out of the lineup, but Terry McLaurin was the clear No. 1 option for Taylor Heinicke. Samuel will be an uninspiring FLEX option when the Commanders take on the Colts in Week 8.
- NBCSportsEDGE
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Curtis Samuel caught 3-of-4 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' Week 9 loss to the Vikings, adding one rush for 16 yards.

Samuel's 49-yard score came on an ill-advised throw from Taylor Heinicke into triple coverage. A Vikings defender ran into a ref, which created just enough space for the ball to squeeze between the coverage into Samuel's hands. Samuel was again well behind Terry McLaurin in the pass-catching pecking order -- a theme with Heinicke under center for Washington over the past three weeks. Samuel's target volume has been suppressed in a Commanders offense that is far more run heavy with Heinicke at the controls, though he should cut it as a PPR WR3 in Week 10 against the Eagles.
- NBCSportsEDGE
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Curtis Samuel caught 5-of-5 targets for 54 yards in the Commanders’ Week 1 win over the Cardinals, adding a six-yard rush.

Samuel led the Commanders in receiving, though Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas both posted higher target shares. Terry McLaurin ran more routes. Samuel is a valuable real-life Swiss army knife, but it is going to be extremely difficult for him to carve out consistent WR4 value in an offense led by first-time starter Sam Howell.
- Rotoworld
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He will become a free agent after this season. Will be 28. Still has speed and playmaking ability. His biggest payday will probably be his next contract. Plenty of teams could use him.
 
Matt Harmon
New Curtis Samuel breakdown is up on my YouTube channel. Let's dive into what he brings to the Bills offense and why he's a bit of a misunderstood player.

- Curtis Samuel's career results in #ReceptionPerception
- Why he had his best season with Joe Brady in 2020
- Film and RP evidence showing he can win outside in the intermediate and deep game
- Realistic expectations for him in Buffalo's WR room

youtube.com/watch?v=hByI7m…
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I've watched nearly every game he's played since coming into the league (my 2 favorite teams are Washington and Carolina) and I think he'll have his career year this year. He really is talented, great top end speed and his short area burst is elite. Seems to have great balance and I don't have his stats handy, but it seemed like he rarely dropped the ball. He just wasn't utilized optimally in DC. He is one of my favorite late round targets this year.
 
ffmail4me said:
I've watched nearly every game he's played since coming into the league (my 2 favorite teams are Washington and Carolina) and I think he'll have his career year this year. He really is talented, great top end speed and his short area burst is elite. Seems to have great balance and I don't have his stats handy, but it seemed like he rarely dropped the ball. He just wasn't utilized optimally in DC. He is one of my favorite late round targets this year.
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My only real issue is the very high likelihood that the Bills take a WR in round 1 or 2.
 
zamboni said:
Joe Bryant said:
FWIW, my friend Matt Harmon on Curtis Samuel now for Buffalo.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
youtu.be youtu.be

And this was the day before the Diggs trade.
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When Harmon talks WRs, people listen. And if they don’t, they should.
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Footballguys Staff Alum! And a great guy.
 
@32BeatWriters
“His best season came under Brady in Carolina, when in 2020, he posted his only top-25 fantasy finish. Somehow still just 27 years old, the explosive Curtis Samuel is now in one of the league’s best offenses (with over 260 targets available). It’s the best opportunity of his career, yet he’s being drafted as the 40th wide receiver or later.”
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x.com

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yeah he is a screaming value and it doesn't make sense to me. in redraft anyway but probably dynasty too. and if he isn't then somebody else is. Keon Coleman has lots of non believers and some bad press and I don't think shakir is the guy either. Kinkaid would seem to be the obvious Bills pass catcher to own but I feel like the whole market is sleeping on Samuel. He isn't Diggs but the guy can ball and there are so many frickin targets to be had here. I don't get it.
 
barackdhouse said:
yeah he is a screaming value and it doesn't make sense to me. in redraft anyway but probably dynasty too. and if he isn't then somebody else is. Keon Coleman has lots of non believers and some bad press and I don't think shakir is the guy either. Kinkaid would seem to be the obvious Bills pass catcher to own but I feel like the whole market is sleeping on Samuel. He isn't Diggs but the guy can ball and there are so many frickin targets to be had here. I don't get it.
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Samuel is probably the best example of "better real life football player than Fantasy Football player" that I've seen in some time. Admire the guy, think he's a great pick if you need a really solid floor play for your redraft league when you absolutely need to not score zero points that week.

His best year (2020) saw him as WR24 for the year, so he certainly has potential to turn a profit on his current ADP of WR56 on FantasyPros. BTW, Keon Coleman is WR57, and Shakir is WR61. I think it's a pretty safe bet at least one of the 3 will end the year as a solid Fantasy WR3, I'm just not sure which one. Personally I'm probably going to draft Shakir since he's the lowest priced yet most efficient (39 receptions on 45 targets last year).
 
barackdhouse said:
yeah he is a screaming value and it doesn't make sense to me. in redraft anyway but probably dynasty too. and if he isn't then somebody else is. Keon Coleman has lots of non believers and some bad press and I don't think shakir is the guy either. Kinkaid would seem to be the obvious Bills pass catcher to own but I feel like the whole market is sleeping on Samuel. He isn't Diggs but the guy can ball and there are so many frickin targets to be had here. I don't get it.
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Agree with you 100%. Hopefully FBG remain down on him and he's a cheap addition to my contest team.
 
jumper said:
barackdhouse said:
yeah he is a screaming value and it doesn't make sense to me. in redraft anyway but probably dynasty too. and if he isn't then somebody else is. Keon Coleman has lots of non believers and some bad press and I don't think shakir is the guy either. Kinkaid would seem to be the obvious Bills pass catcher to own but I feel like the whole market is sleeping on Samuel. He isn't Diggs but the guy can ball and there are so many frickin targets to be had here. I don't get it.
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Samuel is probably the best example of "better real life football player than Fantasy Football player" that I've seen in some time. Admire the guy, think he's a great pick if you need a really solid floor play for your redraft league when you absolutely need to not score zero points that week.

His best year (2020) saw him as WR24 for the year, so he certainly has potential to turn a profit on his current ADP of WR56 on FantasyPros. BTW, Keon Coleman is WR57, and Shakir is WR61. I think it's a pretty safe bet at least one of the 3 will end the year as a solid Fantasy WR3, I'm just not sure which one. Personally I'm probably going to draft Shakir since he's the lowest priced yet most efficient (39 receptions on 45 targets last year).
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His QB play has been pretty bad so far in his career. He is still only 27. But WR56 seems absurd to me. Samuel is the only one (along with Shakir) that can run every route AND take the top off vertically. I'm not sure which one of these WRs emerges either but I think it will quite a bit closer to Diggs numbers than solid WR3 (which would be worth it in it's own right but WR3 isn't super sexy even if cheap)
 
barackdhouse said:
jumper said:
barackdhouse said:
yeah he is a screaming value and it doesn't make sense to me. in redraft anyway but probably dynasty too. and if he isn't then somebody else is. Keon Coleman has lots of non believers and some bad press and I don't think shakir is the guy either. Kinkaid would seem to be the obvious Bills pass catcher to own but I feel like the whole market is sleeping on Samuel. He isn't Diggs but the guy can ball and there are so many frickin targets to be had here. I don't get it.
Click to expand...

Samuel is probably the best example of "better real life football player than Fantasy Football player" that I've seen in some time. Admire the guy, think he's a great pick if you need a really solid floor play for your redraft league when you absolutely need to not score zero points that week.

His best year (2020) saw him as WR24 for the year, so he certainly has potential to turn a profit on his current ADP of WR56 on FantasyPros. BTW, Keon Coleman is WR57, and Shakir is WR61. I think it's a pretty safe bet at least one of the 3 will end the year as a solid Fantasy WR3, I'm just not sure which one. Personally I'm probably going to draft Shakir since he's the lowest priced yet most efficient (39 receptions on 45 targets last year).
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His QB play has been pretty bad so far in his career. He is still only 27. But WR56 seems absurd to me. Samuel is the only one (along with Shakir) that can run every route AND take the top off vertically. I'm not sure which one of these WRs emerges either but I think it will quite a bit closer to Diggs numbers than solid WR3 (which would be worth it in it's own right but WR3 isn't super sexy even if cheap)
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Worse cases is Gabe Davis who finished WR35 and WR41 over the last two years. Perfect flex or bye week fill in.
 
alex brasky
This catch from Curtis Samuel during 1 on 1 drills was his best catch of training camp. He has been all over the field, but this was a spectacular grab from the first-year #Bills wide receiver #BillsMafia
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The yearly, offseason is Samuel gonna be good narrative. Never had a 1000 yard season. I personally don't see it happening, but at his ADP what's the risk? Seems like a decent back of draft dart throw. Imo
 
FarFromHome said:
The yearly, offseason is Samuel gonna be good narrative. Never had a 1000 yard season. I personally don't see it happening, but at his ADP what's the risk? Seems like a decent back of draft dart throw. Imo
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he has never been projected to be the #1 WR until now. whether those projections carry weight or not, he has never had this kind of target opportunity that exists, and Josh Allen is several degrees of magnitude better than what WAS has been putting out there. The rookie Keon Coleman yeah IDK not worried. Shakir is probably the new Gabe Davis but IMO Kincaid/Samuel are the obvious fantasy receiving weapons. And James Cook if you're into his price at RB but that's a different animal. We don't care what the RBs do or don't do to the WR share. I hope.
 
I kind of agree with Field Yates, I think expecting consistent production from any of the Bills WRs this year may not be wise.

A beat writer interview I heard expects them to run the offense through Kincaid, he's probably the one player that could provide week to week consistency.

That said, Samuel at current ADP is a steal.
 
TripItUp said:
I kind of agree with Field Yates, I think expecting consistent production from any of the Bills WRs this year may not be wise.

A beat writer interview I heard expects them to run the offense through Kincaid, he's probably the one player that could provide week to week consistency.

That said, Samuel at current ADP is a steal.
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I think that is correct as well. But the upside is too much to ignore at Samuel's ADP. One of the questions I try to ask myself this time of year is "which guys out there on my board would I sort of immediately regret not ranking higher if I see them emerge in like the first three weeks?" Guys where I'd say to myself "crap that just isn't surprising why didn't I act on that possibility when I was drafting?" To me Samuel fits that to a tee. But then I'm overweight on him if anything. Been taking him ever since they signed him in best balls and a couple of the FPCs.
 
rostership:

In post NFL Draft UD bestballs - 3rd at 48% (18/37 drafts)
In post NFL Draft UD BB Superflex - 10th at 25% (3/12)
In UD Weekly Winners series - 7th at 35% (11/31)
Total UD - 40% 32/80

I think the conventional wisdom says anything over around 30% is considered overweight but 40% isn't so bad especially since my strategy is to leverage what I consider to be a market gap on Samuel. If positive reports keep coming in and anything like blurbs that start talking about him being the #1 WR then mmmaybe his ADP climbs significantly enough for me to fade and that percentage goes down. Lets see what my FFPC BestBall %s look like:

Never Too Early BB Tourney - 1/3
BB Tourney - 1/1
SF BB Tourney - 0/4
Pros v Joes 1/1
Total FFPC BB - 33% 3/9

FFPC - FPChampionship redrafts - 22% 2/9

Overall - 38% 37/98

The problem with guys like this is that I've been expecting the market to catch up to this gap and it hasn't happened yet. That's why I'm overweight. It's hard for me not to draft him when his price is so good. Chase Brown is another guy like that and now I suspect his ADP is going to start climbing enough to fade. I need the August and September crowds to roll into the ADP trends like bowling balls.
 
also 6/31 rostership in UD pre-NFL draft tourneys but I think they overlap with when FA period hit so I left those out. But overall would be

33% 43/129
 
TripItUp said:
I kind of agree with Field Yates, I think expecting consistent production from any of the Bills WRs this year may not be wise.

A beat writer interview I heard expects them to run the offense through Kincaid, he's probably the one player that could provide week to week consistency.

That said, Samuel at current ADP is a steal.
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I think most Bills folks seem to believe:

-Guy most likely to lead the team in catches is Dalton Kincaid
-Guy who is most likely to lead receivers in catches is Curtis Samuel
 
He is ridiculously cheap and I've been targeting him everywhere. Best QB he's ever had by a landslide and he can play outside or inside vs man or zone effectively.

Sign me up for that going price.
 
The Joe Brady reunion has me intrigued. He seemed to use him a lot in Carolina, which I remember to my detriment when I owned DJ Moore at that point.
 
He'll have some good weeks. He's not, not talented. I view him kind of like DJ Chark in that they're journeymen who I'm not surprised when I watch them make a big play on Sundays.

I'm not expecting a career year in year 8, but it's the best QB he's ever played with, so you know, anything is possible.


As for being used in different formations and all that, that's always been his appeal. He's a swiss army knife. If he's open, Josh Allen will get him the ball but he's somewhat of a gadget guy. 4-6 targets on average seems about right.

Kincaid > Shakir > Samuel > Coleman > Valdez-Scantling



That's my prediction of target hierarchy, with Coleman having potential to leapfrog Samuel by the end of the season if he's the real deal.
 
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