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WR DK Metcalf, PIT (1 Viewer)

Joe Fann @Joe_Fann

First rep of 1v1s:

Russell Wilson 40-yard TD to DK Metcalf down the left sideline. Tre Flowers had decent coverage on the play, but Metcalf got a step, stacked him and Wilson delivered a dime over DK’s right shoulder.
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https://twitter.com/joe_fann/status/1295824953229500416?s=21

Joe Fann @Joe_Fann

DK beat Tre on their next rep, too, on a 15-yard comeback. Flowers was understandably upset. DK gonna have that effect on lots of DBs this season.
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https://twitter.com/joe_fann/status/1295825985502232577?s=21

 
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DK Dominates & Other Observations From The Sixth Practice Of Seahawks Training Camp

Excerpt:

1. DK Metcalf is very hard to defend. 

A reoccurring theme these past couple of days has been that throwing the ball to second-year receiver DK Metcalf tends to yield results. And it's not just that Russell Wilson and other quarterbacks are hitting Metcalf when he's open, they're also taking advantage of Metcalf's size and strength by letting him win contested balls. Wilson in particular has been putting trust in Metcalf in one-on-one situations, and over and over again, Metcalf comes down with the ball even when the coverage is good. For as good as Metcalf was as a rookie, it's easy to understand watching him in camp why his coaches and teammates are so excited to see what he'll do in Year 2.
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Ilov80s said:
We just need the Seahawks to let Russ cook this year 
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That's the only reason he's not going earlier IMO. The Seahawks are one of the top 4 running-est teams in football.  

As long as Pete is coach, I don't see that shifting. I think FBG nails it with his profile - if he's going to improve on last year's numbers it'll have to be with efficiency, because volume is unlikely to increase. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That's the only reason he's not going earlier IMO. The Seahawks are one of the top 4 running-est teams in football.  

As long as Pete is coach, I don't see that shifting. I think FBG nails it with his profile - if he's going to improve on last year's numbers it'll have to be with efficiency, because volume is unlikely to increase. 
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I get it, they have Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. You got to feed the beast. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I get it, they have Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. You got to feed the beast. 
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rofl. Carson, yes. Hyde, notsomuch.

carson was great for me last year until the hip fracture. Assuming good health I’m shocked he’s going at roughly the same ADP he had last season. 

Penny is expected back later in the year, which to me is the bigger concern, but the Seahawks will run. Pete Carroll has shown that commitment regardless of caliber of back.  If Carson goes down, I’d bet Hyde gets 20 carries for 60 yards like clockwork. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That's the only reason he's not going earlier IMO. The Seahawks are one of the top 4 running-est teams in football.  

As long as Pete is coach, I don't see that shifting. I think FBG nails it with his profile - if he's going to improve on last year's numbers it'll have to be with efficiency, because volume is unlikely to increase. 
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I think his volume could increase without the overall volume increasing. He was a raw rookie last season - he could easily be the top target this season.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think his volume could increase without the overall volume increasing. He was a raw rookie last season - he could easily be the top target this season.
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Possible. At who’s expense though?  It’s not like there are a ton of targets to move around. I just don’t see where the additional targets come from if they remain that run heavy. 

i like Metcalf a lot. I can see him repeating, with a little uptick, but I don’t know how much room there is for growth unless the Seahawks shift offensive philosophy. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Possible. At who’s expense though?  It’s not like there are a ton of targets to move around. I just don’t see where the additional targets come from if they remain that run heavy. 

i like Metcalf a lot. I can see him repeating, with a little uptick, but I don’t know how much room there is for growth unless the Seahawks shift offensive philosophy. 
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Run first teams still pass. I’m not understanding your question as to “where the additional targets come from” - seems they would come at the expense of other players on the roster. Targets don’t remain static from year to year.

I don’t see it as a controversial stance that a second year player that has show great progress would/could see his targets from his rookie season increase.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Run first teams still pass. I’m not understanding your question as to “where the additional targets come from” - seems they would come at the expense of other players on the roster. Targets don’t remain static from year to year.

I don’t see it as a controversial stance that a second year player that has show great progress would/could see his targets from his rookie season increase.
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I don’t think it’s controversial either. But there is a finite amount of a thing & a distribution of that thing. 

in this case it’s passes. You’re saying you see the Seahawks passing the same amount but Metcalf getting a larger target share.

so the question is pretty straightforward - who loses targets in that case. Is Lockett now going to be a bust? He wasn’t particularly high volume. They brought in Olsen, reportedly Dissley is coming back. They throw to the RBs a bit.

If Metcalf is getting more targets that would imply either the other guys are getting fewer or Wilson is throwing more. So if Wilson isn’t throwing more, who do you think loses targets as Metcalf gains them?

Metcalf could be better this year with the relatively same number of targets through greater efficiency. More experienced WRs do that as well. Fewer drops, better route running, more YAC. Given the Seahawks heavy run philosophy, that seems to be his path to improvement. 

i didn’t see that as particularly controversial.  It’s actually echoing what FBG said in his profile  - I just said I agree with them. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I don’t think it’s controversial either. But there is a finite amount of a thing & a distribution of that thing. 

in this case it’s passes. You’re saying you see the Seahawks passing the same amount but Metcalf getting a larger target share.

so the question is pretty straightforward - who loses targets in that case. Is Lockett now going to be a bust? He wasn’t particularly high volume. They brought in Olsen, reportedly Dissley is coming back. They throw to the RBs a bit.

If Metcalf is getting more targets that would imply either the other guys are getting fewer or Wilson is throwing more. So if Wilson isn’t throwing more, who do you think loses targets as Metcalf gains them?

Metcalf could be better this year with the relatively same number of targets through greater efficiency. More experienced WRs do that as well. Fewer drops, better route running, more YAC. Given the Seahawks heavy run philosophy, that seems to be his path to improvement. 

i didn’t see that as particularly controversial.  It’s actually echoing what FBG said in his profile  - I just said I agree with them. 
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I insinuated it in the Lockett thread, but unless Schotty gets locked in an equipment closet for the season I do not think he's valued properly. He's being drafted as WR23, which is about where he's finished each of the last two seasons on a per game basis. His efficiency may indicate he should get more, but...Schotty. I think Metcalf's target share goes up this year and if it is not at the expense of other parts of the distribution then I think Lockett is the victim. I don't think he should be, but...Schotty.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I don’t think it’s controversial either. But there is a finite amount of a thing & a distribution of that thing. 

in this case it’s passes. You’re saying you see the Seahawks passing the same amount but Metcalf getting a larger target share.

so the question is pretty straightforward - who loses targets in that case. Is Lockett now going to be a bust? He wasn’t particularly high volume. They brought in Olsen, reportedly Dissley is coming back. They throw to the RBs a bit.

If Metcalf is getting more targets that would imply either the other guys are getting fewer or Wilson is throwing more. So if Wilson isn’t throwing more, who do you think loses targets as Metcalf gains them?

Metcalf could be better this year with the relatively same number of targets through greater efficiency. More experienced WRs do that as well. Fewer drops, better route running, more YAC. Given the Seahawks heavy run philosophy, that seems to be his path to improvement. 

i didn’t see that as particularly controversial.  It’s actually echoing what FBG said in his profile  - I just said I agree with them. 
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There were approximately 100 WR targets to players not named Lockett or Metcalf in 2019.  Those two combined for 210.  It isn't controversial to say that they would account for 250-ish targets combined or mabye slightly more.

 
tangfoot said:
There were approximately 100 WR targets to players not named Lockett or Metcalf in 2019.  Those two combined for 210.  It isn't controversial to say that they would account for 250-ish targets combined or mabye slightly more.
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possible, though if you look at Pete Carroll's time there, there have only been 5 100-target seasons from a WR:

Doug Baldwin in 2015-2017 (103, 125, 116)

Lockett in 2019 (110)

Metcalf in 2019 (100)

I'm bullish on Metcalf as a player, but this does have to raise a concern.  I guess the positive spin is Lockett and Metcalf kind of broke the mold for the Seahawks historically, so maybe they realize what they have and will increase it.  The negative spin is that they both hit their ceilings in terms of what a Seahawks' offense will allow.

 
The negative spin is that they both hit their ceilings in terms of what a Seahawks' offense will allow.
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Having had Baldwin & Lockett for each of the seasons you mentioned, I think this is more the “realistic” spin than the negative one. 

It seems like every year FF managers get really excited about a Seahawks receiver based on a ceiling that may not be there.  

i love Metcalf this year. I am by no means trashing him & I’ll draft him in a heartbeat at his ADP.  

I’ve just had a lot of experience with Carroll offenses playing this game & I don’t see a lot of room for growth unless @MAC_32 is correct and Lockett’s target share is decreased. So I’m trying to stay realistic. He could certainly swing higher with more TD, which can be fickle. But I don’t think we’ll see a massive spike in receptions/yardage. 

if Carson gets hurt, that may be the catalyst for an offensive philosophy change - but then again, Carroll has been pretty stubborn about that in the past. 

He’s an exciting player though and I hope I can land him. 

 
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Just popping in to remind everybody that Metcalf saw a ton of red zone targets last year, and team usage in the red zone is correlated between years per a PFF study. In other words, expect end zone targets to Metcalf to keep coming.

 
rockaction said:
Just popping in to remind everybody that Metcalf saw a ton of red zone targets last year, and team usage in the red zone is correlated between years per a PFF study. In other words, expect end zone targets to Metcalf to keep coming.
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That's what I eluded to above - a spike in TDs would bump his value without a ton more receptions or yards. That is where I would expect him to improve, potentially. 

greedygoat said:
Picked up DK at 5.08 in a 12 team PPR redraft tonight and I’m pretty pumped to be on this train 💪🏼
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That's a bargain. I'm feeling like if I can get him at 5.03 I'll be psyched.

 
DK Metcalf caught 4-of-8 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' Week 1 win over the Falcons. 

With the Seahawks playing a much more aggressive style of offense, Metcalf tied Tyler Lockett for the team lead in targets. Lockett won the catch battle with eight, but Metcalf got him on yardage 95-92. Metcalf was also the only one of the two to find the end zone, blowing by Isaiah Oliver down the left sideline for a 38-yard touchdown on fourth down. One of Metcalf's missed connections was a horrific drop to open the second half, but he quickly bounced back with the score. A weekly top-20 option at receiver, Metcalf has a tough Week 2 test in Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots.  

- Rotoworld
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The biggest recipient of #LetRussCook besides Russ might actually be DK over Lockett due to the chunk throws.

 
Excited to see Metcalf play on SNF - any thoughts on whether Gilmore will be shadowing Metcalf, Lockett or just staying on his side?

 
zamboni said:
Excited to see Metcalf play on SNF - any thoughts on whether Gilmore will be shadowing Metcalf, Lockett or just staying on his side?
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This is just a guess based on what Bill has done in the past is situations like this but I’d expect Gilmore on Lockett and Metcalf to see bracket coverage.

 
DK Metcalf caught 4-of-6 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Patriots.

Metcalf had one of the plays of the game when he beat Stephon Gilmore deep for a 54-yard TD. He was a problem for Gilmore all night, leading Seattle in receiving despite going up against the reining Defensive Player of the Year. Metcalf is off to a hot start, going over 90 yards with a pair of touchdown through the first two weeks. He gets a matchup with Dallas in Week 3.

Sep 21, 2020, 12:21 AM ET
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I don't want to give away FBG subscriber info, but DK is incredibly high on the rest of season rankings.  When I noticed that today, I did a double-take and compared him to some other sites.  He is markedly higher here at FBG than other sites.  

I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him.  On pace for 112 targets.  That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.

Thoughts?  Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?

 
Bayhawks said:
I don't want to give away FBG subscriber info, but DK is incredibly high on the rest of season rankings.  When I noticed that today, I did a double-take and compared him to some other sites.  He is markedly higher here at FBG than other sites.  

I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him.  On pace for 112 targets.  That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.

Thoughts?  Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?
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With Lockett in the picture I just can't see top 10. In my league's scoring, Lockett and Metcalf in the top 15 would be the equivalent of a Godwin / Evans duo last year. I'm having a little trouble seeing that too

 
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habsfan said:
With Lockett in the picture I just can't see top 10. In my league's scoring, Lockett and Metcalf in the top 15 would be the equivalent of a Godwin / Evans duo last year. I'm having a little trouble seeing that too
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I agree. If they let Wilson continue to cook, maybe it’s possible, but I have a hard time believing that Carroll/Schoettenheimer will change their run-first colors at this point.

One caveat though is that the defense right now is not doing the offense any favors, so absent a defensive improvement, Wilson may be throwing more out of necessity.

 
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Bayhawks said:
I don't want to give away FBG subscriber info, but DK is incredibly high on the rest of season rankings.  When I noticed that today, I did a double-take and compared him to some other sites.  He is markedly higher here at FBG than other sites.  

I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him.  On pace for 112 targets.  That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.

Thoughts?  Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?
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I don't play ppr so I targets, and receptions play less into my evaluation.  What I look at with DK is....

1) he is a legit #1,  and a physical beast

2) Russ loved him last season as a rook

3) he has Russ as his QB, so his targets tend to be quality, over quantity

4) the point Zamboni made with the Hawks D.  Russ can cook, and he likely will be more due to game script.

 
Bayhawks said:
I don't want to give away FBG subscriber info, but DK is incredibly high on the rest of season rankings.  When I noticed that today, I did a double-take and compared him to some other sites.  He is markedly higher here at FBG than other sites.  

I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him.  On pace for 112 targets.  That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.

Thoughts?  Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?
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Last year Kenny Golladay ended up WR5* with a stat line of 65-1200-11.

So very doable for Metcalf. It's all about the TD's.

*0.5 ppr

 
Manster said:
I don't play ppr so I targets, and receptions play less into my evaluation.  What I look at with DK is....

1) he is a legit #1,  and a physical beast

2) Russ loved him last season as a rook

3) he has Russ as his QB, so his targets tend to be quality, over quantity

4) the point Zamboni made with the Hawks D.  Russ can cook, and he likely will be more due to game script.
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FBGs rankings are for standard, but while physically he’s a #1 type, in reality, he isn’t. He’s getting fewer targets than Lockett.  As for Russ loving him, that’s true, but also probably my doesn’t matter, IMO.  Pretty sure that Russ has never fixated on 1 received; he spreads the ball around to whoever is open.  Definitely agree about Russ as his QB, huge plus.  As far as Russ cooking, while that’s a popular narrative, it’s not really true.  He’s been huge the first 2 weeks, but that’s based on TD variability.  He’s actually throwing slightly fewer passes/game this year than last year, and pretty much exactly what he’s averaged over the last 3 years.

 
Bayhawks said:
FBGs rankings are for standard, but while physically he’s a #1 type, in reality, he isn’t. He’s getting fewer targets than Lockett.  As for Russ loving him, that’s true, but also probably my doesn’t matter, IMO.  Pretty sure that Russ has never fixated on 1 received; he spreads the ball around to whoever is open.  Definitely agree about Russ as his QB, huge plus.  As far as Russ cooking, while that’s a popular narrative, it’s not really true.  He’s been huge the first 2 weeks, but that’s based on TD variability.  He’s actually throwing slightly fewer passes/game this year than last year, and pretty much exactly what he’s averaged over the last 3 years.
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I don't disagree with your point, but Russ is playing at a higher level than everyone else around him.  If he can continue to drop bombs on defenses, volume is somewhat irrelevant.....again, quality over quantity.  And while Lockett gets plenty of work, he's definitely the shifty, #2 type......I see the natural progression as DK continuing to dominate over the top....I mean he just made Gilmore his B....he will have piles of TD's, and chunk plays.....

Also, when has Russ ever had a receiver like DK?  His skillset, and physical ability coupled with Russ' deep accuracy...skies the limit

 
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Manster said:
I don't disagree with your point, but Russ is playing a higher level than everyone else around him.  If he can continue to drop bombs on defenses, volume is somewhat irrelevant.....again, quality over quantity.  And while Lockett gets plenty of work, he's definitely the shifty, #2 type......I see the natural progression as DK continuing to dominate over the top....I mean he just made Gilmore his B....he will have piles of TD's, and chunk plays.....

Also, when has Russ ever had a receiver like DK?  His skillset, and physical ability coupled with Russ' deep accuracy...skies the limit
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Agree. The deep threat is one thing...but on top of that there are going to be quite a few RZ jump ball TD opptys. The dude's got a 41-inch vertical to go along with his height and wingspan. 

 
zamboni said:
I agree. If they let Wilson continue to cook, maybe it’s possible, but I have a hard time believing that Carroll/Schoettenheimer will change their run-first colors at this point.

One caveat though is that the defense right now is not doing the offense any favors, so absent a defensive improvement, Wilson may be throwing more out of necessity.
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The defense is the reason they are allowing him to cook 

 
DK Metcalf caught 4-of-4 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' Week 3 win over the Cowboys.

Metcalf had one of the biggest Shaqtin' a Fool moments ever. After separating downfield, Metcalf took his foot off the gas at the three yard line, allowing CB Trevon Diggs to surprisingly punch the ball out before Metcalf reached the end zone. It went from a touchdown to a touchback, and cost you a Week 3 win if you lost by fewer than 8 PPR points. Metcalf made up for his mistake with the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter, however. Through three weeks, Metcalf is on a top-15 fantasy receiver pace with the Seahawks passing at high rates. He has a ton of upside against the Dolphins next week.

Sep 27, 2020, 8:03 PM ET
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DK Metcalf caught 4-of-6 targets for 106 yards in the Seahawks' Week 4 win over the Dolphins. 

Metcalf was held out of the end zone for the first time all season, but he almost got there in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for fantasy players, he was dragged down at the one-yard line on a 32-yard grain. Metcalf has yet to catch more than four passes, but he's also yet to catch fewer. With 25 percent of the season in the books, he's on pace for 1,612 yards and 12 scores. The yardage rate will probably come down, but the catches figure to increase. 10-plus TDs is absolutely realistic for a player of Metcalf's size and speed in this kind of offensive attack. The Vikings are another glorious matchup for Week 5.

- Rotoworld
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Through four games he's either had 90+ yards or a TD; his floor is looking very high.

 
DK Metcalf caught 6-of-11 targets for 93 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle's Week 5 win over the Vikings.

Metcalf scored the game-winning touchdown on Seattle's final drive of the night. He dropped an easy TD on the play before, but Metcalf was able to make up for it with a tough catch in traffic. Both of Metcalf's scores came on passes from Russell Wilson in the red-zone. Metcalf has now scored in 4-of-5 games this season and is up to a 22/496/5 line on 39 targets. He'll have a matchup with the Cardinals after Seattle's Week 6 bye.

Oct 12, 2020, 12:13 AM ET
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Plays in prime time tonight against a weak defense in a likely high scoring affair. After showing out in prime time in his last game too right now may be the last chance to buy him for anything less than randy moss in his prime on the vikings type prices.

I am rooting for a bad game even though I have several shares just to maybe give one last buying opportunity where I don't already have him, but I have a feeling he becomes completely untouchable after today. 

 
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