JohnnyU
Footballguy
Little late for that isn’t it?
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WR DK Metcalf, PIT (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ty247
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brewer
Footballguy
I think this article is interesting to add to this conversation:
Essentially, I think people forget just how often first round picks are, uh, not good. Yes, you will have to pay DK a chunk of change, but WRs of his caliber in their prime are not grown on trees. I.E., I don't think a first round pick is out of the question. Would I also give a third, probably not, but if a big, strong WR was the piece my team was missing, I would consider it.
First-round draft hit rates: Tracking rates from the best (centers) to the worst (WRs)
When an NFL team selects a player in the first round of a draft, they're banking on finding a long-term cornerstone building block for the franchise. It's a hopeful investment in a player who is expected to be one of the top players on the team for years and years to come.…
draftwire.usatoday.com
Essentially, I think people forget just how often first round picks are, uh, not good. Yes, you will have to pay DK a chunk of change, but WRs of his caliber in their prime are not grown on trees. I.E., I don't think a first round pick is out of the question. Would I also give a third, probably not, but if a big, strong WR was the piece my team was missing, I would consider it.
-OZ-
Footballguy
No kidding. I get it from the physical freak perspective but metcalf has a longer history of success than Boston did. Although DK hasn’t led the league in yardage, yet. Besides, Boston was pretty good until injured.
Blick
Footballguy
I disagree. Ladd has proven to be a good WR, but JSN is an immensely talented WR and Lockett was very good for a long time. I'd take him 10 out of 10 times over Ladd. Situation and Herbert played a massive role in Ladd's numbers. If Metcalf ends up there, I think Ladd's numbers will take a significant hit and he'll settle in as a WR2/3 PPR type. He's being valued as a top 12 WR right now. That's certainly not undervalued.
Maybe I have too much recency bias - and maybe last year was just a really good year for WRs - but when I look at last year's WR draft class (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, BTJ, Worthy, Pearsall, Legette), there aren't that many that I would trade straight up for Metcalf. Certainly Legette - maybe Pearsall (though he was recovering from his gunshot and looked really good at the end of the year) and maybe Odunze. I certainly wouldn't send MHJ or Worthy with a 3rd rounder for DK and I wouldn't trade Nabers or BTJ even if you sent me a 3rd rounder back.
And that's before even considering the contract status. All the guys I mentioned are going to be making $4-8 million for the next 3 years and Metcalf wants $30 per year, most of it guaranteed.
I just don't think it's even in the realm of being realistic.
kutta
Footballguy
Again, I disagree.
DK averaged 7.2 targets per game, and JSN averaged 8.1 targets per game. The super studs average 9-11 targets per game. JSN should see that fairly easily with DK gone.
I think it’s a myth that a very good receiver on the other side helps the other receiver.
I don’t have time now to go do the research, but I’ll get to it.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
He ain't leaving, he'll get a raise
if you are a true alpha WR, it doesnt matter who covers you or if you are facing double coverage.
I suppose a good receiver on the other side may cut into the double coverage scenarios but by how much? the person you double cover should be the best WR on the team regardless.
Yeah, everything you're saying here is my point about McConkey being underrated. Saying he's only a top 12 value because of a lack of competition, saying guys like Lockett or JSN are better talents, saying he was in a good situation, but JSN wasn't (despite Seattle being WAY more pass happy than the Chargers) all of that is stuff I'd argue makes McConkey underrated, even if he's "fantasy valued" at WR12 currently. I don't think he's thought of as a top 12 NFL WR, I'm saying he should be. He's the player people think Garrett Wilson is.
A thought about DK: I keep seeing this, "he's 27, and in his prime" and frankly, I don't know that is accurate. I think he might be a pretty old 27. He's not a guy who likely ages well, as he's never won with route running or being a technician. Its all been size/speed. Frankly, I'm not sure why DK is being treated like he's so much better than Deebo, a guy who had outproduced DK on a per game basis 3 straight years until 2024.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I meant it as a legit comp, not an insult.
Boston had some great moments before injuries caught up.
If anything DKM needs to step up his game to become Boston. Focus less on being an Adonis and more on catching the damn ball. He had some serious concentration lapses last year.
I still question whether he can put it all together. Honestly while I know it won’t happen, LAC would be a perfect fit because Herbert can put it on a dime.
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
I mostly agree and I think last year WAS a really good year for rookie WRs; but those guys aren't really on the table for any of the teams in the league who think their WR room is weak currently. Their options are DK, Higgins, and.... well I think it falls off a cliff at that point lol. And odds are Higgins and DK are asking for roughly the same amount in a new contract. It seems I'm in the minority on this thought, but I'd actually say if you HAVE to pay one of them, DK deserves it more than Higgins. Or they can draft a rookie. And as much as I try to rally against people who say this rookie WR class is really bad (though that sentiment has been dying off since the combine), I also don't think it's really good. I don't think one of them will walk on a field and outperform DK in 2025 tbh. Seems like a solid class of a few potential WR2s and a plethora of WR3/4s. The fact I just don't like guys who profile like Tet is certainly coloring my view too. It makes sense he gets comped to London, as I wasn't as high on him as consensus either. I have a hard time buying into guys when one of their major flaws is a lack of ability to separate; at least before they come into the NFL and prove it's not going to be an issue. Also feels they are much more situation dependent as some NFL QBs just will not throw 50/50 balls even with a WR talented enough to make them more like 80/20 balls.
We probably are even closer on agreement to it not being realistic than it seems; but when it comes to the NFL I tend to err on the side of "it only takes one team..." and until the NFL becomes the NBA, Seattle holds enough power to demand and likely get a 1st. Or just retain him like someone else pointed out. Which feels like it may just be the most likely outcome here.
Not that I doubt that it's very likely the case; but do we have any source even semi concrete indicating DK truly expects $30mil a year with a huge chunk guaranteed? Because most of the stuff I've read says he wants to play on competitive team, not so much that he "wants to get paid what I deserve" type comments. The talking heads certainly project that's what he's "worth" in the current market, but is it out of the realm of possibility he could look closer to $20-25 a year if it's a destination he wants to go to and is willing to give Seattle a 1st in a package?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
At 27, this is probably his last big contract. I would assume he will ask to get paid closer to 30 versus 20.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The most likely scenario, but if another team values him like Miami did Reek a few years ago, he gone. That's the game. DK, if you think you're that great, go show your value in the market. Door's open for you to come back if going to market served as a reality check though.
I agree with that as well. I think if you're a team in "we should really try to win now" mode, DK is going to give you as close to guaranteed production at the WR position as you're going to get. If you're Buffalo - and your best hope of winning a Super Bowl seems to be landing a generational quarterback in the draft - I can see a good argument for loading up now and taking advantage of that opportunity.
And I agree with your point on it just takes one team. While I think the number of teams it make sense for is small, there are a lot of dumb GMs out there, who are willing to do stupid stuff like trade a 4th round pick for a year of Keenan Allen...
And I agree with your point on it just takes one team. While I think the number of teams it make sense for is small, there are a lot of dumb GMs out there, who are willing to do stupid stuff like trade a 4th round pick for a year of Keenan Allen...
eighsse2
Footballguy
[insert funny list of "things I want too"]
Deamon
Footballguy
This has the Chargers written all over it.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
On paper, it just doesn’t seem like their ideology. Would be a lot of fun seeing Herbert flinging it down the field to him though. Also, would help the running game keeping the defenses honest.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
drop rate was 8.3% (he's had this weakness for years)
contested catch rate 36% (a man his size should dominate this stat, but he simply doesn't)
fumbles (tied for 2nd WRs)
penalties (tied for 2nd WRs)
The guy obviously has a temper on the field and many mental lapses as well. I've watched him for years and he's just not a dominant #1 that commands the ball, (has never broken top-10 for tgts in his career). He strikes me as a guy who relies on his freak size and speed combo to get by, but hasn't really put much work into perfecting his craft. He has the rare blend of athletics for a man his size to be a 1500/15td guy, but he just hasn't put it all together.
Having said that he can certainly help a few teams as he's still a viable speed threat. For a non-contender NE is his best landing spot and a team who will pay him what he wants, while the Chargers would be an ideal spot if a contender and warmer weather is what he seeks.
contested catch rate 36% (a man his size should dominate this stat, but he simply doesn't)
fumbles (tied for 2nd WRs)
penalties (tied for 2nd WRs)
The guy obviously has a temper on the field and many mental lapses as well. I've watched him for years and he's just not a dominant #1 that commands the ball, (has never broken top-10 for tgts in his career). He strikes me as a guy who relies on his freak size and speed combo to get by, but hasn't really put much work into perfecting his craft. He has the rare blend of athletics for a man his size to be a 1500/15td guy, but he just hasn't put it all together.
Having said that he can certainly help a few teams as he's still a viable speed threat. For a non-contender NE is his best landing spot and a team who will pay him what he wants, while the Chargers would be an ideal spot if a contender and warmer weather is what he seeks.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Winnipeg
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Yeah we'd take him on the Bombers. Think he'd take $200k CAD per year?
BoltNlava
Footballguy
I'm gonna throw it deep corner...DK make sure you take a right cut at the moose.
Does this imply DK would be happier in SEA without Geno?
Along with the likely scenario the Seahawks will sign Sam Darnold at QB, there's some optimism this could alter the conversation with receiver DK Metcalf, who has requested a trade.
Along with the likely scenario the Seahawks will sign Sam Darnold at QB, there's some optimism this could alter the conversation with receiver DK Metcalf, who has requested a trade.
Sure does.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Except for the $30M that DK wants
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Geno is mediocre at throwing the ball downfield. Could it help DK? Sure. Will it? No idea.
Gatorade
Footballguy
For a 2025 2nd round pick
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That sounds about right, but by comparison man Washington fleeced the Eagles getting a 3rd for Dotson
Insein
Footballguy
That does seem to be one blind spot of Howie's. Mid season trades. Byard for a 5&6. Robert Quinn for a 4th. Golden Tate for a 3rd.That sounds about right, but by comparison man Washington fleeced the Eagles getting a 3rd for Dotson
I realize Dotson was right before the season and maybe it still works out. As it stands we got a nice play in the super Bowl from him and a decent game or two at the end of the season.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya thought for sure the chargers to hit all those wishes. Wild.Warm weather? Settled QB situation? Contender? 0-3?
Money DING DING DING
Good for him
-OZ-
Footballguy
They aren’t all that far from the playoffs I guess but yeah.Warm weather? Settled QB situation? Contender? 0-3?
Money DING DING DING
Good for him
I like DK enough but not sure what he offers that Pickens doesn’t, except maybe health.
DK is a saint compared to Pickens. Something ain’t right with George.They aren’t all that far from the playoffs I guess but yeah.Warm weather? Settled QB situation? Contender? 0-3?
Money DING DING DING
Good for him
I like DK enough but not sure what he offers that Pickens doesn’t, except maybe health.
Team that has made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 seasons isn't that far from the playoffs?They aren’t all that far from the playoffs I guess but yeah.Warm weather? Settled QB situation? Contender? 0-3?
Money DING DING DING
Good for him
I like DK enough but not sure what he offers that Pickens doesn’t, except maybe health.
I think this is a solid enough move by both teams. Never felt like DK should fetch a 1 in a trade, since he's not really a #1. He's better than Pickens though, and they seemed pretty desperate for a WR. I'm sure having DK and Pickens in the locker room together will only produce positives, and they won't combine for like 10 personal fouls next season.
Wonder if this means Pittsburgh is closer to Russ than Fields? Or if that is just clickbait dot connecting?
Chargers didn't wanna pay 30 million for a #2 WR. Steelers were a lot more desperate.Ya thought for sure the chargers to hit all those wishes. Wild.Warm weather? Settled QB situation? Contender? 0-3?
Money DING DING DING
Good for him
He's not a #2.
Blick
Footballguy
No kidding. Jesus.
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Not sure I see the fit here, unless something happens with Pickens. Both players are boundary field stretchers, neither does much over the middle. There just seems like a lot of overlap in how each player wins. Honestly, I don’t love this deal.
Feel like this also means the Steelers are going to move away from any QB they have now. Russ and DK were great together- 5 years ago.
Thought Kupp would have been, schematically, would the more logical fit. Feel like this may mean more moves are coming.
Don’t want to judge too quickly, but don’t love this deal.
I agree with everything you are saying.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe. Maybe they’re hoping DK’s professionalism rubs off on him.
Maybe they’re still in on Kupp, or maybe they finally expand ‘Mouth’s role.
I mean, if its a run heavy offense (which Arthur Smith, and likely Mike Tomlin, want) where you have 2 big deep threats to make you pay for ever bringing the Safeties up, it makes some sense. Seems like an offense where the guy to own is the RB. Maybe we finally get Jaylen Warren unleashed?
The Frankman
Footballguy
Rotoworld: Fantasy Fallout: Davante Adams to the Rams, DK Metcalf to the Steelers
by Patrick Daugherty, published March 9, 2025 09:06 PM
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
@FBG Moderator @Joe Bryant
requesting thread title update please
OP has been inactive for 18+ months
requesting thread title update please
OP has been inactive for 18+ months
McBokonon
Footballguy
Report function works best for stuff like this, I think.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I could see the Vikings trading the 24 for the 50 and the 52. Just wondering if Seattle is looking at getting draft QB #3 on a 5 year deal.
