WR Emeka Egbuka, TB (2 Viewers)

[Harjiran]

Sutton is Nix's WR1 and Tet is going to be a target hog in CAR - I'd have to consider them before Egbuka, who will be competing for targets with Evans and (eventually) Godwin. I might even bump Tet above Sutton tbh.

You gotta factor in more for QB play. Baker had 4.5k+ yards and 40+ TDs.

Young only had 2.5k yards and a mere 15 TDs. Sutton I can understand as Nix was much better. But not Tet just on assumption of targets.

Agreed but I'm willing to bet that Young improves on those numbers considerably, with Tet as the main beneficiary. Egbuka looks great and the TB offense is superior to CAR in every way - but Tet is going to be the man for CAR and Egbuka will be competing with a future HOF WR for targets. It's close for me though - I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring Egbuka over Tet or vice versa.

Reverse engineer and show me how you get Tet to 1k yards and 7+ TDs. I just don't see Young touching 4k yards or 30+ TDs.

Egbuka doesn't have to "compete" for targets. There are plenty of targets to go around when you are dividing up 4k+ yards/30+ TDs. Lock in Evans for his 1k/10TD That leave 3.5k/20+ TDs for the rest and Egbuka steps in as the #2.

Haha I couldn't reverse engineer a can opener but FBG projections have Tet as WR24 with 75 receptions for 995 yards and 6.6 TDs, so actually pretty close to the numbers you called out. Meanwhile they've got Egbuka at WR59 with 49 rec for 630 and almost 4 TDs - I assume they are factoring in an early return to form by Godwin. Now personally I think Egbuka's numbers will be well north of the projections, but this should give you an idea of what the "experts" think of both players' prospects this season. They are also projecting 3,558 passing / 22 TDs for Young. Again, I think Egbuka and Tet are pretty close - I'd be happy to have either on my teams but have struck out thus far.

 

[Grahamburn]

Sutton is Nix's WR1 and Tet is going to be a target hog in CAR - I'd have to consider them before Egbuka, who will be competing for targets with Evans and (eventually) Godwin. I might even bump Tet above Sutton tbh.

You gotta factor in more for QB play. Baker had 4.5k+ yards and 40+ TDs.

Young only had 2.5k yards and a mere 15 TDs. Sutton I can understand as Nix was much better. But not Tet just on assumption of targets.

Agreed but I'm willing to bet that Young improves on those numbers considerably, with Tet as the main beneficiary. Egbuka looks great and the TB offense is superior to CAR in every way - but Tet is going to be the man for CAR and Egbuka will be competing with a future HOF WR for targets. It's close for me though - I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring Egbuka over Tet or vice versa.

Reverse engineer and show me how you get Tet to 1k yards and 7+ TDs. I just don't see Young touching 4k yards or 30+ TDs.

Egbuka doesn't have to "compete" for targets. There are plenty of targets to go around when you are dividing up 4k+ yards/30+ TDs. Lock in Evans for his 1k/10TD That leave 3.5k/20+ TDs for the rest and Egbuka steps in as the #2.

Haha I couldn't reverse engineer a can opener but FBG projections have Tet as WR24 with 75 receptions for 995 yards and 6.6 TDs, so actually pretty close to the numbers you called out. Meanwhile they've got Egbuka at WR59 with 49 rec for 630 and almost 4 TDs - I assume they are factoring in an early return to form by Godwin. Now personally I think Egbuka's numbers will be well north of the projections, but this should give you an idea of what the "experts" think of both players' prospects this season. They are also projecting 3,558 passing / 22 TDs for Young. Again, I think Egbuka and Tet are pretty close - I'd be happy to have either on my teams but have struck out thus far.

What are they projecting for Godwin and when were they last updated?

I haven’t heard any positive news on his progress. He does all his rehab inside and does no drills or running outside when media/fans are present.

This is why Egbuka’s value is skyrocketing. The slot player in this offense produces and that’s Egbuka for the foreseeable future.

Honestly I’d be surprised if we saw Godwin active before their week 9 bye. He’s starting on PUP at best.

 

[Harjiran]

Your guess is as good as mine - Internet speculations range from 0-6 games missed, there's no real info out there regarding where he's at today, health-wise. FBG projects 70 recs, 833 yards, 5.5 TDs for what it's worth, but if he's out a long time (like possibly through the bye as you say) I don't see how those numbers are achievable. Everyone is just guessing right now - which leaves Egbuka's fantasy projections up in the air as well. Godwin is a dominant force when healthy and he will impact Egbuka's productivity once he's on the field, in my opinion.

Chris Godwin Could Miss a Couple Weeks to Start the Season

 

[Instinctive]

Sutton is Nix's WR1 and Tet is going to be a target hog in CAR - I'd have to consider them before Egbuka, who will be competing for targets with Evans and (eventually) Godwin. I might even bump Tet above Sutton tbh.

You gotta factor in more for QB play. Baker had 4.5k+ yards and 40+ TDs.

Young only had 2.5k yards and a mere 15 TDs. Sutton I can understand as Nix was much better. But not Tet just on assumption of targets.

Agreed but I'm willing to bet that Young improves on those numbers considerably, with Tet as the main beneficiary. Egbuka looks great and the TB offense is superior to CAR in every way - but Tet is going to be the man for CAR and Egbuka will be competing with a future HOF WR for targets. It's close for me though - I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring Egbuka over Tet or vice versa.

Reverse engineer and show me how you get Tet to 1k yards and 7+ TDs. I just don't see Young touching 4k yards or 30+ TDs.

Egbuka doesn't have to "compete" for targets. There are plenty of targets to go around when you are dividing up 4k+ yards/30+ TDs. Lock in Evans for his 1k/10TD That leave 3.5k/20+ TDs for the rest and Egbuka steps in as the #2.

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Sutton is Nix's WR1 and Tet is going to be a target hog in CAR - I'd have to consider them before Egbuka, who will be competing for targets with Evans and (eventually) Godwin. I might even bump Tet above Sutton tbh.

You gotta factor in more for QB play. Baker had 4.5k+ yards and 40+ TDs.

Young only had 2.5k yards and a mere 15 TDs. Sutton I can understand as Nix was much better. But not Tet just on assumption of targets.

Agreed but I'm willing to bet that Young improves on those numbers considerably, with Tet as the main beneficiary. Egbuka looks great and the TB offense is superior to CAR in every way - but Tet is going to be the man for CAR and Egbuka will be competing with a future HOF WR for targets. It's close for me though - I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring Egbuka over Tet or vice versa.

Reverse engineer and show me how you get Tet to 1k yards and 7+ TDs. I just don't see Young touching 4k yards or 30+ TDs.

Egbuka doesn't have to "compete" for targets. There are plenty of targets to go around when you are dividing up 4k+ yards/30+ TDs. Lock in Evans for his 1k/10TD That leave 3.5k/20+ TDs for the rest and Egbuka steps in as the #2.

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

good breakdown here

 

[Capella]

Your guess is as good as mine - Internet speculations range from 0-6 games missed, there's no real info out there regarding where he's at today, health-wise. FBG projects 70 recs, 833 yards, 5.5 TDs for what it's worth, but if he's out a long time (like possibly through the bye as you say) I don't see how those numbers are achievable. Everyone is just guessing right now - which leaves Egbuka's fantasy projections up in the air as well. Godwin is a dominant force when healthy and he will impact Egbuka's productivity once he's on the field, in my opinion.

Chris Godwin Could Miss a Couple Weeks to Start the Season

The Bucs fancy themselves as a Super Bowl contender and they think they have enough to get by without CG to start the year. I think they slow play it so they they have him healthy and ready to go for the second half and playoffs. Jmo. I can tell you as a Bucs mega fan I won’t be drafting him before like round 10.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Has anyone looked at the Bucs schedule and how much of a non factor weather is going to be for them all season?
They have a Nov 16th game at Buffalo 1:00 start time, it might be cold but it won't be freezing just yet
After that they travel to frigid Los Angeles and then have 4 of their final 6 games in Tampa, late season road game to the sub zero temperatures down in Miami
One road game at Carolina in December, again I'v traveled thru there at that time, won't be so cold they can't operate on offense.

The schedule shapes up pretty well for the Bus and they see Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young and Michael Penix all twice, they need to try and make a run for the 1-seed
Now that might be too high for them but winning the division should be almost no issue.
I get excited until i see Todd Bowles put on the headset as Head Coach and then I know they have limitations. New OC as well in '25


Sounds like Egbuka is going to fly up on the ADP chart from where he started a few weeks ago

 

[chad in Indy]

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

Good breakdown, I am "okay" with the optomism on Young's total stats. But even if he does, that has Tet accounting for over 45% of the total passing TDs which is unprecedent for a WR (especially a rookie). Even 9 TDs by a rookie is pretty rare and even more so without an elite QB.

 

[Instinctive]

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

Good breakdown, I am "okay" with the optomism on Young's total stats. But even if he does, that has Tet accounting for over 45% of the total passing TDs which is unprecedent for a WR (especially a rookie). Even 9 TDs by a rookie is pretty rare and even more so without an elite QB.

Yeah I just wouldn't call that optimism about Young. I'd call it a bottom 5-10 NFL QB season both efficiency and volume.

What makes you say it is unprecedented? Nabers had 7/15 last year. BTJ had 10/19 I think? I have a hard time believing something is unprecedented when it happened twice literally last season. And their QBs were absolutely not close to elite. Both were rookies.

Do you have other relevant data? I just did the quick check for last season since I'm not making the assertion.

 

[chad in Indy]

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

Good breakdown, I am "okay" with the optomism on Young's total stats. But even if he does, that has Tet accounting for over 45% of the total passing TDs which is unprecedent for a WR (especially a rookie). Even 9 TDs by a rookie is pretty rare and even more so without an elite QB.

Yeah I just wouldn't call that optimism about Young. I'd call it a bottom 5-10 NFL QB season both efficiency and volume.

What makes you say it is unprecedented? Nabers had 7/15 last year. BTJ had 10/19 I think? I have a hard time believing something is unprecedented when it happened twice literally last season. And their QBs were absolutely not close to elite. Both were rookies.

Do you have other relevant data? I just did the quick check for last season since I'm not making the assertion.

I did a short dive look at WR TD % relative to team TDs (quickly). Very few from last year were over 40%. Google "WR rookies with 9+ TDS". This is a much easier list to quickly find.

 

[Instinctive]

Bryce Young at only 30 attempts a game and 6.8 YPA with a 4.3% TD ratio gets you 3500 and 22 TDs.

Tet with 26% target share is 133 targets, estimating 80/1127/9.

I think it's exceptionally likely Bakers year last year is the best he ever has and he doesn't come close to 40 TDs really. Maybe flirts with 35 but I'd take the under I think.

Good breakdown, I am "okay" with the optomism on Young's total stats. But even if he does, that has Tet accounting for over 45% of the total passing TDs which is unprecedent for a WR (especially a rookie). Even 9 TDs by a rookie is pretty rare and even more so without an elite QB.

Yeah I just wouldn't call that optimism about Young. I'd call it a bottom 5-10 NFL QB season both efficiency and volume.

What makes you say it is unprecedented? Nabers had 7/15 last year. BTJ had 10/19 I think? I have a hard time believing something is unprecedented when it happened twice literally last season. And their QBs were absolutely not close to elite. Both were rookies.

Do you have other relevant data? I just did the quick check for last season since I'm not making the assertion.

I did a short dive look at WR TD % relative to team TDs (quickly). Very few from last year were over 40%. Google "WR rookies with 9+ TDS". This is a much easier list to quickly find.

Yeah but the raw number 9 isn't that useful. And all rookie WRs is not the right data set.

We should be looking at first rounders or first WR taken, and ideally finding ones for teams that had almost no target competition either.

The comps are Nabers, BTJ, JaMarr Chase, MHJ, Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jaylen Waddle. In the past 5 years, top 15 picks at WR.

Odunze aside...all the other ones has pretty outstanding rookie seasons.

Waddle had 6
Chase had 13
MHJ had 8
BTJ 10
Nabers 7
Wilson 4
London 4
Odunze 3 (easily the worst season of all these guys)

I think you're kind of picking a nit. That's fine. Project him for 6. But the average TDs of similar rookies is 55/8 = just under 7. So give him 6 or 7. Does that change the point at all?

ETA I also think x% of teams receiving TDs is a silly metric. More predictive would be x% of targets turning into TDs. It's just like x% of yards is kind of silly - do the target share and the YPT fall within reasonableness? Then it's reasonable.

 

[-OZ-]

Reverse engineer and show me how you get Tet to 1k yards and 7+ TDs. I just don't see Young touching 4k yards or 30+ TDs.

Yeah I just wouldn't call that optimism about Young. I'd call it a bottom 5-10 NFL QB season both efficiency and volume.

Not the right thread but many people seem to be sleeping on Bryce.

I like egbuka a LOT and actually think he’ll have a better career than Tet. But Tet should get more than 75/1000/7 as a rookie imo. Bryce will be slightly above average statistically this year - imo of course.

 

[chad in Indy]

Yeah but the raw number 9 isn't that useful. And all rookie WRs is not the right data set.

We should be looking at first rounders or first WR taken, and ideally finding ones for teams that had almost no target competition either.

The comps are Nabers, BTJ, JaMarr Chase, MHJ, Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jaylen Waddle. In the past 5 years, top 15 picks at WR.

Odunze aside...all the other ones has pretty outstanding rookie seasons.

Waddle had 6
Chase had 13
MHJ had 8
BTJ 10
Nabers 7
Wilson 4
London 4
Odunze 3 (easily the worst season of all these guys)

I think you're kind of picking a nit. That's fine. Project him for 6. But the average TDs of similar rookies is 55/8 = just under 7. So give him 6 or 7. Does that change the point at all?

ETA I also think x% of teams receiving TDs is a silly metric. More predictive would be x% of targets turning into TDs. It's just like x% of yards is kind of silly - do the target share and the YPT fall within reasonableness? Then it's reasonable.

I honed in on 9 TDs bc that is the figure you provided and was one I disagreed with. that was all. I think 5-6 for his draft pedigree is much more reasonable, but my opinion of Bryce Young makes me skeptical Tet even gets to 6 TDs.

I don't want to derail this thread from Egbuka any further. My whole position in all of this is that I think Egbuka has a much higher probability in hitting/outperform projections versus Tet hitting/outperforming his (purely going on yardage/TDs and not factoring in PPR, etc.).

 

[Judge Smails]

Baker sure has heaped praise on him

 

[zeeshan2]

“As of 8/15, [Chris] Godwin has yet to even jog on a separate field with a team trainer during camp this year – much less cut on his surgically-repaired ankle or run routes. He isn’t close to returning and he’ll [likely] miss the first 4 weeks —at least”

https://x.com/RotoBallerNFL/status/1957531182649794970

 

[LawFitz]

“As of 8/15, [Chris] Godwin has yet to even jog on a separate field with a team trainer during camp this year – much less cut on his surgically-repaired ankle or run routes. He isn’t close to returning and he’ll [likely] miss the first 4 weeks —at least”

https://x.com/RotoBallerNFL/status/1957531182649794970

Booka to the moonka!

 

[jm192]

He's getting grossly overrated. He's a rookie who has never caught an NFL pass. He's got to compete with Evans and McMillan and eventually Godwin. Cade Otton is going to break out this year. Baker is on his 3rd OC in hte last few years.

If you're in my Shark Pool league, keep re-reading the above until you believe it.

 

[jm192]

He's going to absolutely smash. I don't know how early is TOO early to draft him. But it's coming. He'll be a 2nd or 3rd round pick next year.

He'll come out on fire, and then they'll ease Godwin back in. Godwin may not be 100% this season, certainly not until mid-late season. Egbuka will be a sit it and forget it starter by then.

 

[Grahamburn]

McMillan with a strained neck now and could miss week one+

 

[dmac37]

So is Egbuka playing outside now with McMillan in the slot and Godwin returns to the slot and Egbuka stays as a starter on the outside?

 

[jm192]

So is Egbuka playing outside now with McMillan in the slot and Godwin returns to the slot and Egbuka stays as a starter on the outside?

Godwin is best used in the slot.

I think regardless of designation outside vs slot, you're going to see Egbuka really establish himself while Godwin is out. And then they'll ease Godwin back in. Egbuka isn't coming off the field once he pops the first month of the season.

 

[Judge Smails]

Baker sure has been raving about him.

 

[LawFitz]

If Egbuka lands on an offense that doesn't feature the slot/that doesn't allow him to rotate outside in 2 WR sets (resulting in too low of a snap share to be a WR1)/that has a QB who won't throw to the middle of the field or in tighter windows.... then we'll wind up with a Tyler Boyd NFL version of Egbuka. Still good, but far from what he's capable of doing.

Quoting this post from March because it was spot on IMO. Bucs knew at the draft where Godwin was in his recovery. You know who else Booka is like besides ARSB? Godwin.

Godspeed, Booka!

 

[ponchsox]

McMillan with a strained neck now and could miss week one+

He’s going on IR. Egbuka’s ADP is going to skyrocket.

 

[-OZ-]

If Egbuka lands on an offense that doesn't feature the slot/that doesn't allow him to rotate outside in 2 WR sets (resulting in too low of a snap share to be a WR1)/that has a QB who won't throw to the middle of the field or in tighter windows.... then we'll wind up with a Tyler Boyd NFL version of Egbuka. Still good, but far from what he's capable of doing.

Quoting this post from March because it was spot on IMO. Bucs knew at the draft where Godwin was in his recovery. You know who else Booka is like besides ARSB? Godwin.

Godspeed, Booka!

Emeka me crazy

Fwiw, I named my new dynasty team Emeka my day over a month ago - I’m on the hype train.

https://x.com/Birm/status/1475580052284874757

Funny to see that post is almost 4 years old.

 

[pinkstapler]

If Egbuka lands on an offense that doesn't feature the slot/that doesn't allow him to rotate outside in 2 WR sets (resulting in too low of a snap share to be a WR1)/that has a QB who won't throw to the middle of the field or in tighter windows.... then we'll wind up with a Tyler Boyd NFL version of Egbuka. Still good, but far from what he's capable of doing.

Quoting this post from March because it was spot on IMO. Bucs knew at the draft where Godwin was in his recovery. You know who else Booka is like besides ARSB? Godwin.

Godspeed, Booka!

Ah the early days when I was still getting weird looks for putting him as WR1B of this class behind Hunter and saying I'd draft him starting around 1.06, before who I consider the 3rd tier of RBs and either of the TEs pre NFL draft lol. Way too early to victory lap it; and I'll be the first to admit things keep breaking his way in regards to injuries in the Bucs WR room. But so far my 100% dynasty ownership is looking like a good decision.

Only thing that stinks is having two more redrafts to do in the next two weeks. I don't think I can wait until the 7th round anymore to take him if I want to be sure I get him. Looks like 5/6 turn it is, likely pairing with Pearsall.

Side note: I'm really starting to hate leagues that won't draft until right before the season kicks off. I'd gladly roll the dice on drafting guys who wind up getting injured prior to the season start (as at least all owners share that risk equally), rather than continue giving up the advantages gained by paying attention to fantasy football 12 months a year so people who just started paying attention last week can undercut all my value picks haha. As the weeks go by nearly all of my mid and late round target picks have been gaining in ADP, some by full rounds at this point.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

FF certainly is a funny and 'new toy' beast. Consider:

Egbuka was the 19th pick in the 2025 draft. Great pedigree. Has a role on a team with a great passing offense. A competitor for targets just got injured increasing chances for even more opportunity and all reports suggest he's going to be very good. But he's yet to have played a down of NFL football.

Zay Flowers was the 21st pick in the 2023. By all accounts, he's had a very successful first two seasons in the league with his second season producing an 1100+ YFS season with 4 TD's (after 6 his rookie year), catching passes from one of the best QB's in the NFL, albeit one who has a significant running aspect to his game.

They pretty much have the same ADP. The rookie 'value' play here has been eliminated.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

FF certainly is a funny and 'new toy' beast. Consider:

Egbuka was the 19th pick in the 2025 draft. Great pedigree. Has a role on a team with a great passing offense. A competitor for targets just got injured increasing chances for even more opportunity and all reports suggest he's going to be very good. But he's yet to have played a down of NFL football.

Zay Flowers was the 21st pick in the 2023. By all accounts, he's had a very successful first two seasons in the league with his second season producing an 1100+ YFS season with 4 TD's (after 6 his rookie year), catching passes from one of the best QB's in the NFL, albeit one who has a significant running aspect to his game.

They pretty much have the same ADP. The rookie 'value' play here has been eliminated.

Strong disagreement with implying that Lamar is a great QB for the purposes of fantasy impact on his WRs

 

[LawFitz]

Looks like 5/6 turn it is, likely pairing with Pearsall.

I took Booka at the 5/6 turn and let Pearsall fall to the 7/8 last week in SP League UNO. Would have considered Pearsall at the 5/6 as well, if I thought I had to. Fortunately the sharks here hadn't caught up to him yet at that point, but I'm pretty sure blood hit the water after he had three catches in his lone drive with Brock last weekend.

Egbuka did not fall to my slots at 7/8 in any of the other three SP home leagues, so either there was reflexivity to my pick, or my instincts about the need to reach for him if I wanted him were correct.

Correction: double checked and Booka fell to round 9 in League D. That bunch wasn't buying into the hype.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

FF certainly is a funny and 'new toy' beast. Consider:

Egbuka was the 19th pick in the 2025 draft. Great pedigree. Has a role on a team with a great passing offense. A competitor for targets just got injured increasing chances for even more opportunity and all reports suggest he's going to be very good. But he's yet to have played a down of NFL football.

Zay Flowers was the 21st pick in the 2023. By all accounts, he's had a very successful first two seasons in the league with his second season producing an 1100+ YFS season with 4 TD's (after 6 his rookie year), catching passes from one of the best QB's in the NFL, albeit one who has a significant running aspect to his game.

They pretty much have the same ADP. The rookie 'value' play here has been eliminated.

Strong disagreement with implying that Lamar is a great QB for the purposes of fantasy impact on his WRs

Are we putting that on Lamar or the fact that they are these people?

Hollywood Brown
2023 Odell Beckham
Rashod Bateman
Demarcus Robinson
Nelson Agholor
Devin Duvernay
Willie Snead IV
Miles Boykin

 

[jm192]

FF certainly is a funny and 'new toy' beast. Consider:

Egbuka was the 19th pick in the 2025 draft. Great pedigree. Has a role on a team with a great passing offense. A competitor for targets just got injured increasing chances for even more opportunity and all reports suggest he's going to be very good. But he's yet to have played a down of NFL football.

Zay Flowers was the 21st pick in the 2023. By all accounts, he's had a very successful first two seasons in the league with his second season producing an 1100+ YFS season with 4 TD's (after 6 his rookie year), catching passes from one of the best QB's in the NFL, albeit one who has a significant running aspect to his game.

They pretty much have the same ADP. The rookie 'value' play here has been eliminated.

I just don't envision a massive season for Flowers in this offense.

Lamar just had his 1st ever 4,000 yard passing season. Flowers only had 1,059 yards and 4 TD's. He had a whole 116 targets. I assume the Ravens will run it more, and Lamar's efficiency regresses a bit back towards the mean.

TD wise: You've got Henry and Andrews as TD machines. Lamar can keep it in the redzone or break a long one from anywhere.

I just don't see the path for a massive yardage or TD season for Flowers.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

FF certainly is a funny and 'new toy' beast. Consider:

Egbuka was the 19th pick in the 2025 draft. Great pedigree. Has a role on a team with a great passing offense. A competitor for targets just got injured increasing chances for even more opportunity and all reports suggest he's going to be very good. But he's yet to have played a down of NFL football.

Zay Flowers was the 21st pick in the 2023. By all accounts, he's had a very successful first two seasons in the league with his second season producing an 1100+ YFS season with 4 TD's (after 6 his rookie year), catching passes from one of the best QB's in the NFL, albeit one who has a significant running aspect to his game.

They pretty much have the same ADP. The rookie 'value' play here has been eliminated.

Strong disagreement with implying that Lamar is a great QB for the purposes of fantasy impact on his WRs

Are we putting that on Lamar or the fact that they are these people?

Hollywood Brown
2023 Odell Beckham
Rashod Bateman
Demarcus Robinson
Nelson Agholor
Devin Duvernay
Willie Snead IV
Miles Boykin

Very fair question

 

[dmac37]

If Egbuka lands on an offense that doesn't feature the slot/that doesn't allow him to rotate outside in 2 WR sets (resulting in too low of a snap share to be a WR1)/that has a QB who won't throw to the middle of the field or in tighter windows.... then we'll wind up with a Tyler Boyd NFL version of Egbuka. Still good, but far from what he's capable of doing.

Quoting this post from March because it was spot on IMO. Bucs knew at the draft where Godwin was in his recovery. You know who else Booka is like besides ARSB? Godwin.

Godspeed, Booka!

Ah the early days when I was still getting weird looks for putting him as WR1B of this class behind Hunter and saying I'd draft him starting around 1.06, before who I consider the 3rd tier of RBs and either of the TEs pre NFL draft lol. Way too early to victory lap it; and I'll be the first to admit things keep breaking his way in regards to injuries in the Bucs WR room. But so far my 100% dynasty ownership is looking like a good decision.

Only thing that stinks is having two more redrafts to do in the next two weeks. I don't think I can wait until the 7th round anymore to take him if I want to be sure I get him. Looks like 5/6 turn it is, likely pairing with Pearsall.

Side note: I'm really starting to hate leagues that won't draft until right before the season kicks off. I'd gladly roll the dice on drafting guys who wind up getting injured prior to the season start (as at least all owners share that risk equally), rather than continue giving up the advantages gained by paying attention to fantasy football 12 months a year so people who just started paying attention last week can undercut all my value picks haha. As the weeks go by nearly all of my mid and late round target picks have been gaining in ADP, some by full rounds at this point.

I completely agree. I was able to get Puka in the 5th round rookie draft in May that year, late August his value was discovered by the late to the party masses. Bill is that guy this year along with Egbuka.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Likely no Godwin and McMillan now for a while, Egbuka's ADP is going to skyrocket.