Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A flex is a starter though, no?
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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
When it comes to training camp news, ignore the positive and pay attention to the negative.
I wonder if Gabe’s hands have gotten better during the off-season. Watched him drop too many catchable balls last year.
I wonder if Gabe’s hands have gotten better during the off-season. Watched him drop too many catchable balls last year.
dmac37
Footballguy
I think Gabe will have the season we thought he would last year, this year. Some positive news from buffalobills.com.
2. Why Gabe Davis is ready for a bounce-back year
For much of last season wide receiver Gabe Davis was dealing with a nagging ankle injury. The WR played through much of the pain, but he admitted to media on Thursday after practice that the injury did have a big effect on his third NFL season."Hurting my ankle, the way I did, it was probably the worst one out of all of them just because I didn't even miss a game," Davis shared. "But for me, I just felt like I lost a step. Really couldn't do the things that I wanted to do that I was doing early that camp and then the first game or in practice and stuff. So it definitely was something that I was struggling with mentally just having that pain on my ankle, trying to figure out ways to get my head out of it and kind of just play my game."
While the WR had high expectations last year, he by no means had a bad season. Davis increased his numbers in every statistical category from 2021 to 2022 by recording 48 catches, 830 receiving yards, seven touchdowns and averaged 17.4 yards per reception.
Now heading into a contract year after an offseason to get healthy, Davis is feeling ready for Year 4.
"I feel great now," Davis said. "Ankle's 100%, body feels great. So, everything's on the up and up now."
The UCF product says he's approaching this year no different than last and plans to work hard in hopes of a great season on the field. His teammate, Stefon Diggs, thinks Davis is bound for a bounce-back season.
"I feel like Gabe Davis will have a breakout year," Diggs said. "I feel like he had got nicked up a little early last year, but I think this year he's gonna have an amazing year. He's damn near wide receiver one in my eyes. I feel like if I wasn't here, Gabe Davis would be a WR1 and it's something that I can hang my hat on when I say that. He's an extremely hard worker."
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Seems with Cook being put in a bigger role, the addition of Kincaid, and Shakir or Sherfeld stepping up in the slot - even with better health Davis could have a hard time reaching those heights. I was a big believer heading into last season (and roster him on 3 teams) but last season showed a limited route tree and the possibility he's just a deep threat guy - which will make him inconsistent for fantasy. Hope I'm wrong - it's not like I can trade him away for good value so I'll hold and hope.
jm192
Footballguy
I would hardly call Davis "Non-Factor"
He had 836 and 7 in 15 games. If you extrapolate that to 17 games, he was on pace for ~950 and 8. That was in spite of playing with injury.
I agree with the sentiment you draft a TE in the 1st round, you plan to use him. But as I said previously in the thread, I'm not sure Gabe Davis and Kincaid are fighting over the same targets.
At last year's ADP, Gabe was a huge let down. At his current ADP, he's got a great chance to deliver value.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Allen could not throw short passes easily with his injury in the second half. Davis has the 5th longest average depth of target in the league, and no one above him had more than 50 targets. Over 15 yards per target!
These are harder passes to complete, especially when the defence knows you aren’t throwing short and defend middle/long.
If the Bills figure out how to get short passes into their game plan it bumps Gabe a lot as these are easier to catch.
These are harder passes to complete, especially when the defence knows you aren’t throwing short and defend middle/long.
If the Bills figure out how to get short passes into their game plan it bumps Gabe a lot as these are easier to catch.
jm192
Footballguy
I mean
I absolutely like him better in best ball.
But I think he's a guy that can give you as much as 1100 and 8. He's currently being drafted round 9 or later per Sleeper, ESPN, MFL ADP data. Sure he's a little boom bust. But as a WR3, WR4, I think that upside is what you want.
football fan
Footballguy
Take it for what it is worth, this note recently appeared in my fantasy league (MFL) in the comments on Gabe Davis player page.
Analysis: Davis was a bit underwhelming last season relative to the expectations that fantasy managers had for him, but some of that can be attributed to the ankle injury that he played through for much of the season. He's reportedly been feeling healthier heading into this season, and the young receiver could prove to be a good value as a post-hype sleeper if he gains a step back after recovering from his ankle injury.
Analysis: Davis was a bit underwhelming last season relative to the expectations that fantasy managers had for him, but some of that can be attributed to the ankle injury that he played through for much of the season. He's reportedly been feeling healthier heading into this season, and the young receiver could prove to be a good value as a post-hype sleeper if he gains a step back after recovering from his ankle injury.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Last year people got a little too far out over their skis on him and think that’s caused him to be a nice value this year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
27 career TDs going into his age-24 season. I say he matches his targets total from last year with ~100 but increases his efficiency and gets to 65/1100/7 which according to the league scoring settings where I'm currently looking... would have been good for WR31 last year, a decent WR3 with weekly upside. I drafted him a couple times recently as WR42 so I guess there is some value with him if I'm right. But it's modest at best.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
He just doesn't catch enough balls
When he hits, it's a big day, feast/famine.
171/2TDs, he doesn't hit 100 yds again, about 10 games with 50 yds or less will burn a hole in your starting roster many weeks
He's TD and chunk dependent
When he hits, it's a big day, feast/famine.
171/2TDs, he doesn't hit 100 yds again, about 10 games with 50 yds or less will burn a hole in your starting roster many weeks
He's TD and chunk dependent
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Sept 1st, 2022
Pretty spot on
I could see him improving on his number some this year, also battled injuries last year but what's his ceiling?
WR31 is a terrible WR3, ideally you want your WR3 to be someone who is putting up consistent WR2 numbers. He definitely has the capability of absolutely going off for 4/180/3 but what are the odds that he's in your lineup the one time per season that happens?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Wouldn't someone who is putting up WR2 numbers consistently....be considered a WR2?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'm in a modified best ball league, seems like a good play in that format.
Depends on your lineup.
The WR2 on my team and someone who is a WR2 in the league are very different things.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What WR can I draft outside of the top 100 players and expect consistent WR2 level play? I need to make sure I get that guy in every draft.
Why are you asking me? I doubt I could name many of the players outside the top 100.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That's where Gabe Davis is going. A player's performance is only relative to their cost and opportunity cost. People aren't passing on Olave or London to Lockett to take Davis. In rounds 8 and 9, you have to draft someone. Now maybe at that point you feel like you should be targeting another position that's fair. I just don't see how you can bag on Davis without offering an alternative option.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
Same. Like I said upthread I see Gabe at my country club quite a bit over the offseason. He got hurt last year and the ankle lingered all year. People also forget Josh getting hurt last half of the year as well. All that plays in. You have to predict health with a new year, and the situation is essentially the same.
Big fan of Davis @ adp.
PS: for some of these same reasons Diggs falling into the second round is hilarious. Before Allen went gimpy he was a monster.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Agree. I think Davis is also a special case because he was maybe the most discussed polarizing player heading into last year.
Camp A really hyped him up, late draft season I saw him going 3rd round in some high stakes leagues. So those players got really really burned and it hurt. Plus they probably don't want to raise their hand and say "remember how much I liked Gabe Davis last year". They just want everyone to forget about their very wrong position.
Camp B: Was adamant Gabe Davis wasn't very good and was living off 1 fluke game, would never be consistent, etc. They feel validated now so of course they will double down on their anti-Davis position.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I have him in Tier 6 - which in my rankings is a huge 15-16 player group - and just like a lot of other WRs around him more.
Guys I like more: Dotson, Addison, Burks, Pickens, JSN, Cooks, Sutton, Elijah, Flowers and Johnston.
I'd probably take him over Thomas, Meyers, Bateman and Toney.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He's always going to be the same guy IMO - deep ADoT, resulting in a low completion %, and he'll be a good boom/bust flex if you're a dog in your matchup. Never going to be a volume play.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I was in the living off one game and value would not sustain. There were talks of multiple firsts or even a first round pick for him. I was against passing those offers up. This season I am looking to buy Davis if his value is more in the 2nd round range. I am not doubling down.
Davis is a fine choice in best ball leagues but almost certainly a wasted pick when you have to set a lineup. I don't have any insight into anyone's ADP, so I'm not going to say to take Player X over him.
I think it's fair to say we know what he is at this point in his career, and that's a BOOM/bust guy who can look like the Trinity test or a wet firecracker.
You say that it's all relative to cost, but there's another consideration for him. Even if you get him incredibly cheaply, when do you put him in your starting lineup?
Is it after he's exploded for a great week (whoops, you are chasing those points and probably will fail).
Is it after your safer/better options have gotten hurt (pray to the god of your choice that you happened to slot him in during that one glorious week)
Or do you put him in every single week and just ride out the bad weeks?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In most of my lineups, dynasty or redraft, he is my WR5, 6 or 7, so I'm really only putting him in during bye weeks or due to injury. In such cases, I don't waste a second of time worrying about whether I'm going to be lucky enough to get him on one of his good weeks. It will either happen or it won't. He won't be a regular starter for me unless his floor gets much better. But if you get him as your WR2 or WR3 then yes it will be difficult to rely on him. And you'll have to if you waited that long for a second or third WR.
rockaction
Footballguy
This thought just really helped with a draft I'm doing because I want him nowhere near WR2/3. That's El Stinko.
This was hotly debated and people still haven't backed off of it.
Deamon
Footballguy
I was definitely camp B last year. The hype was out of control and some certain people were acting extremely condescending to anyone who thought that his ADP was correct. They dug their heals in and found every excuse in the book as to why he struggled and had their heels so dug in, that they had a very hard time simply admitting they overvalued him.
This year his adp has dropped so much that I see him as a good value at it. However, I've done a bunch of mocks and he seems to (rightfully this year in my opinion) be going higher than his adp, so I've missed on him most drafts. I'd love him as my wr4 this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I totally backed off of it. Come on.This was hotly debated and people still haven't backed off of it.
rockaction
Footballguy
I totally backed off of it. Come on.
I wasn't talking about you, HSG. We know that's not a subject to really bring up. We both have strong feelings about it.
But here's something to think about. Davis right now is ranked 96 by football guys in the draft I'm doing. His adjusted ADP (whatever that means, FBG) is 91. The guys around him are as follows:
JuJu, Treylon Burks, Isiah Pacheco, Courtland Sutton, Kirk Cousins, Dalton Kincaid, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Dak Prescott, Adam Thielen, and then Zay Flowers, Antonio Gibson, Kadarius Toney, Geno Smith, Zay Jones.
Wow, is that ever an atrocious list of veterans, save for Gabriel Davis. That said, I'm still passing on him at that level and taking chances on rookies with upside. Zay Flowers and Kincaid are going 102 and 98, respectively in TE Premium. I'd rather have Kincaid or Flowers.
So in summation -- his ADP puts him in company with some utter duds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. I will absolutely take him as a WR3 or four if my re-draft flows that direction. I strongly prefer him over most of the guys at that ADP for the position.I totally backed off of it. Come on.
I wasn't talking about you, HSG. We know that's not a subject to really bring up. We both have strong feelings about it.
But here's something to think about. Davis right now is ranked 96 by football guys in the draft I'm doing. His adjusted ADP (whatever that means, FBG) is 91. The guys around him are as follows:
JuJu, Treylon Burks, Isiah Pacheco, Courtland Sutton, Kirk Cousins, Dalton Kincaid, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Dak Prescott, Adam Thielen, and then Zay Flowers, Antonio Gibson, Kadarius Toney, Geno Smith, Zay Jones.
Wow, is that ever an atrocious list of veterans, save for Gabriel Davis. That said, I'm still passing on him at that level and taking chances on rookies with upside. Zay Flowers and Kincaid are going 102 and 98, respectively in TE Premium. I'd rather have Kincaid or Flowers.
So in summation -- his ADP puts him in company with some utter duds.
And not for nothing, the two Dynasty leagues I have him in I was able to acquire him very affordably. At this point he is my WR3 in one, and my WR5 in the other. I love him as a depth piece, and I’m hopeful that when I use him during bye weeks, he will deliver good performances. He might also slot in at flex if he gets on a hot streak.
That said, I am not about to hype the guy. People are welcome to approach him as they see fit. As others have said, I think he represents a substantial value this year. The post hype sleeper value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m actually fairly high on this one though. First time I’ve ever been interested in having Gibson on a team because he’s going just so late. Since I’m likely to do a hero RP strategy if I can get Gibson in the ninth or 10th round it might really help the cause.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, you and me both which means his ADP will be about ten-fifteen spots too low. He's at like 107 now, I can only imagine how easy it is to take him at eighty-five or ninety with the options of JuJu and Thielen staring you in the face.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As much hate as Gabe Davis is getting for last year, those numbers indicate a significant value.
Then there’s the fact that he is the wide receiver 2 for what is expected to be a top offense and there’s a possibility for some “boom“ games. If he finishes anywhere near the top 30, he’s a steal.
rockaction
Footballguy
FBG has him WR44 in the full PPR league I'm in and 96 overall, so he's dead last in the eighth round, according to them.
MTskibum
Footballguy
65% of players do not return to form in that season after returning from high ankle sprain. I think that would effect a deep threat like Davis more than a possession wr.
www.thefantasyfootballers.com
In addition I think Allen's elbow really effected the deep ball.
I am in on Gabe this year, especially at his current price. I hope both he and Allen can stay healthy this year so we can see.
High Ankle Sprains & Their Effect on Fantasy Performance (Fantasy Football)
High ankle sprains are an injury that leads to loss of games played and reduced performance in NFL skill position players.
www.thefantasyfootballers.com
In addition I think Allen's elbow really effected the deep ball.
I am in on Gabe this year, especially at his current price. I hope both he and Allen can stay healthy this year so we can see.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He also barely missed any time and tried to play through it. He has said this really hindered his ability to play, and that he wasn’t 100% all year.65% of players do not return to form in that season after returning from high ankle sprain. I think that would effect a deep threat like Davis more than a possession wr.
High Ankle Sprains & Their Effect on Fantasy Performance (Fantasy Football)
High ankle sprains are an injury that leads to loss of games played and reduced performance in NFL skill position players.
In addition I think Allen's elbow really effected the deep ball.
I am in on Gabe this year, especially at his current price. I hope both he and Allen can stay healthy this year so we can see.
jm192
Footballguy
All of this.65% of players do not return to form in that season after returning from high ankle sprain. I think that would effect a deep threat like Davis more than a possession wr.
High Ankle Sprains & Their Effect on Fantasy Performance (Fantasy Football)
High ankle sprains are an injury that leads to loss of games played and reduced performance in NFL skill position players.
In addition I think Allen's elbow really effected the deep ball.
I am in on Gabe this year, especially at his current price. I hope both he and Allen can stay healthy this year so we can see.
Great post.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This hasn't really happened yet, and of course I hope it doesn't, but with regard to "what were to happen if Diggs were to miss time?" - I still think Gabe is as close to a league winning WR2 (NFL WR2) as it gets. I know there really isn't such a thing as a handcuff WR, and if I had Diggs I wouldn't take Gabe, but in the category of "which WRs stand to gain the most if the incumbent #1 goes down?" - he has got to be pretty close to the top of the list.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah it gets talked about all the time (except oddly inseason) but HAS are the absolute worst. I was never able to explode off my left foot when the same ever again after I had mine despite intensive rehab and access to sports doctors/trainers. It ruins you and when you play through it everybody else just assumes you're good.He also barely missed any time and tried to play through it. He has said this really hindered his ability to play, and that he wasn’t 100% all year.65% of players do not return to form in that season after returning from high ankle sprain. I think that would effect a deep threat like Davis more than a possession wr.
High Ankle Sprains & Their Effect on Fantasy Performance (Fantasy Football)
High ankle sprains are an injury that leads to loss of games played and reduced performance in NFL skill position players.
In addition I think Allen's elbow really effected the deep ball.
I am in on Gabe this year, especially at his current price. I hope both he and Allen can stay healthy this year so we can see.
jm192
Footballguy
Yep.
He finished WR36 in PPR last season. While playing on a bum ankle. He was WR27 in 1/2 PPR. He was actually...decent. He just didn't live up to ADP.
Now with full health, and Allen's elbow expected to be 100%...people hate the guy?
I think he's a WR3 easily. People act like "Well he's boom/bust." Lots of WR3's are.
Boone22
Footballguy
I was one of those guys who didn’t believe in him last year and I don’t really have all that much faith in him this year. Do I think his value has come down into a more acceptable range? Absolutely. But I would not want to count on him as my WR3 on my team. I fully understand that he finished the year as WR36 in PPR and did it on a bum ankle so if you believe when healthy he’ll produce better I can’t fault you for that logic. But my take on it is that as people have mentioned above, he tends to be boom or bust. He played in 15 games last year and had more than 15 points in 4 of them. I tend to be more risk averse than most so if I’m taking a WR3 for my team I want a guy who’s got good hands and is gonna be peppered with targets. I don’t see that in Gabe Davis. To me he’s a deep threat with so-so hands. Add to that, they drafted Kincaid, and I don’t think Davis sees significantly more opportunities than he did last year. This is usually the point where people will reply that they play two different position but to me, there’s still only one football and I don’t know that Allens attempts are going to significantly increase this year. So my personal opinion is that Kincaid will eat into those possible additional targets as a safer outlet option for Allen. David could very well end up at the end of the year being in the WR 25-36 range but my question is how will his points per game scoring look? As other have mentioned above, I don’t have the faith to start him and I wouldn’t unless he strung together a solid 3-4 games in a row. So if you’re playing Best Ball then absolutely pick him up or if you can get him as a WR 6 or 7 that you don’t have to rely on but who could break out then he definitely has significant value at that point. But I’d want at least 4-5 solid/consistent WRs on my team before I’d even consider drafting him. The again that’s just my position. Opinions may vary
.
jm192
Footballguy
Devil's advocateI was one of those guys who didn’t believe in him last year and I don’t really have all that much faith in him this year. Do I think his value has come down into a more acceptable range? Absolutely. But I would not want to count on him as my WR3 on my team. I fully understand that he finished the year as WR36 in PPR and did it on a bum ankle so if you believe when healthy he’ll produce better I can’t fault you for that logic. But my take on it is that as people have mentioned above, he tends to be boom or bust. He played in 15 games last year and had more than 15 points in 4 of them. I tend to be more risk averse than most so if I’m taking a WR3 for my team I want a guy who’s got good hands and is gonna be peppered with targets. I don’t see that in Gabe Davis. To me he’s a deep threat with so-so hands. Add to that, they drafted Kincaid, and I don’t think Davis sees significantly more opportunities than he did last year. This is usually the point where people will reply that they play two different position but to me, there’s still only one football and I don’t know that Allens attempts are going to significantly increase this year. So my personal opinion is that Kincaid will eat into those possible additional targets as a safer outlet option for Allen. David could very well end up at the end of the year being in the WR 25-36 range but my question is how will his points per game scoring look? As other have mentioned above, I don’t have the faith to start him and I wouldn’t unless he strung together a solid 3-4 games in a row. So if you’re playing Best Ball then absolutely pick him up or if you can get him as a WR 6 or 7 that you don’t have to rely on but who could break out then he definitely has significant value at that point. But I’d want at least 4-5 solid/consistent WRs on my team before I’d even consider drafting him. The again that’s just my position. Opinions may vary
We're talking WR3's.
1. Are a lot of them not boom/bust?
2. If they're consistent but not having the big spikes, does that help you win a week/weeks more than Gabe's spike weeks?
Allen Lazard was WR35. Best finishes WR 9, 12--4 weeks outside the top 36. He's probably the most consistent.
Tyler Boyd was WR34. 2 Weeks as WR3, 9 weeks outside the top 36.
Curtis Samuel WR33: Best finishes were WR7 and WR13. 9 weeks outside the top 36.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But on the flip side Sherfield has impressed in the slot.
