WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (6 Viewers)

[menobrown]

Like I said here and in another thread, Adams is still very much an elite WR. He is simply better than GW.

I just don't agree, at all.

I don't agree either but Adams could win some fantasy championships for folks this year on volume alone.

Totally agree, especially the value he has for some people, well like myself, who got him in the 4th round of drafts. Could be a huge payoff.

But I was just saying, in his thread I believe, there is a difference between still being an elite WR and accumulating fantasy stats out of sheer volume.

 

[BlackCrowes]

some of you may be confusing D. Adams with his 2020 version. Obviously this hurts Wilson a little, but if it leads to more first downs, more plays, and more scoring, it could end up being neutral.

I think the point @JohnnyU made is the key here. It doesn't matter what we think of Adams at this point of his career, it's what Rodgers thinks. Until proven otherwise i'm going to bet that he is going to treat him like he was the 2020 version. I still think Wilson has tons of value in fantasy for the reasons I stated above, but I'd be very surprised if Adams doesn't lead the team in targets the rest of the season provided he is healthy.

he may very well. there were 34 targets last night. my point is that this is obviously an overall boost to the offense. Let's say next week there are 40 targets. Could easily see
Adams - 10
Wilson - 8
Lazard - 6
Hall - 5
Conklin - 5
Others - 6

seems plausible

In the end what we do is math. You outlined 40 passing attempts. I can't imagine the Jets going into each game thinking Rodgers needs 40 passing attempts. They have had losing game scripts most weeks and he has hit 40 attempts in only 2 of 6 games.

Jets are averaging 41.5 throws over the last 4 games. That volume and breakdown seems reasonable to me. Different team, different offense of course, but that rate of attempts/year isn't far off what AR was doing in GB.

That said, there was definitely no share in target share in the AR/Davante GB era. Almost no talent at the WR2 spot the whole time though.

Maybe we'll get a vintage 2014 AR performance where he targeted Jordy Nelson 151 times and Randall Cobb 127 on only 520 attempts. Bet GW could post a WR1 season on 127 targets with DA occupying coverage.

Cautiously optimistic. GW turned 24 in July and has done nothing but produce under abysmal circumstances. I'd rather have GW as WR1b with AR and DA, than GW as WR1a with Zach Wilson 10/10 times. If it doesn't work out, AR/DA are not going to be there for the long haul anyways.

Well. To be fair you picked a 4 game stretch in which one of the games the Jets fell behind 17-0 and Rodgers threw it 54 times. That's gonna sway the numbers a bit. Ha ha

"if you take out his 75 yard run he only averaged 2.8 YPC!!"

 

[spurs44]

some of you may be confusing D. Adams with his 2020 version. Obviously this hurts Wilson a little, but if it leads to more first downs, more plays, and more scoring, it could end up being neutral.

Mmmmkay. Lets circle back the first game Adams has 10 targets and Wilson has 3 targets. Not an attack on you at all just my humble opinion. Rodgers loved Adams. Rodgers will love Adams again.

I think Wilson is more talented than Adams buy more than people think. Of course Adams is going to get volume but if people think Wilson is going away I think that's severely underestimating Wilson. I think Lazard is the one that's going to get hurt the most. Imo

 

[Adso]

some of you may be confusing D. Adams with his 2020 version. Obviously this hurts Wilson a little, but if it leads to more first downs, more plays, and more scoring, it could end up being neutral.

I think the point @JohnnyU made is the key here. It doesn't matter what we think of Adams at this point of his career, it's what Rodgers thinks. Until proven otherwise i'm going to bet that he is going to treat him like he was the 2020 version. I still think Wilson has tons of value in fantasy for the reasons I stated above, but I'd be very surprised if Adams doesn't lead the team in targets the rest of the season provided he is healthy.

he may very well. there were 34 targets last night. my point is that this is obviously an overall boost to the offense. Let's say next week there are 40 targets. Could easily see
Adams - 10
Wilson - 8
Lazard - 6
Hall - 5
Conklin - 5
Others - 6

seems plausible

In the end what we do is math. You outlined 40 passing attempts. I can't imagine the Jets going into each game thinking Rodgers needs 40 passing attempts. They have had losing game scripts most weeks and he has hit 40 attempts in only 2 of 6 games.

Jets are averaging 41.5 throws over the last 4 games. That volume and breakdown seems reasonable to me. Different team, different offense of course, but that rate of attempts/year isn't far off what AR was doing in GB.

That said, there was definitely no share in target share in the AR/Davante GB era. Almost no talent at the WR2 spot the whole time though.

Maybe we'll get a vintage 2014 AR performance where he targeted Jordy Nelson 151 times and Randall Cobb 127 on only 520 attempts. Bet GW could post a WR1 season on 127 targets with DA occupying coverage.

Cautiously optimistic. GW turned 24 in July and has done nothing but produce under abysmal circumstances. I'd rather have GW as WR1b with AR and DA, than GW as WR1a with Zach Wilson 10/10 times. If it doesn't work out, AR/DA are not going to be there for the long haul anyways.

Well. To be fair you picked a 4 game stretch in which one of the games the Jets fell behind 17-0 and Rodgers threw it 54 times. That's gonna sway the numbers a bit. Ha ha

Agreed! But those will happen... as will the 30-35 days. I left out weeks 1-2 as they were AR's first time back on the Achilles and it seems like they slow rolled him a bit, but totally get it if anyone thinks that's cherry picking.

On the year AR's averaging 36atts/gm on pace for 578atts for the year. Even if GW's target share drops from the 30% it is now to 20% with DA's arrival that's still 114 quality targets. GW had 168 targets last year, but only about 65% of those (109) were deemed catchable. If he gets close to 20% of the looks, they're mostly on target, and he has secondary coverage... that's not an absolute cratering of his value. With his speed and the non-zero chance that he is just better than DA at this point, and that AR will go to the guy giving him the best chance to move the chains, there's upside there too.

Yes.. trying to convince myself this is at least a neutral outcome for GW. It's working a little bit.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Now that we have had a few days to accept that GW is now a #2 WR on his own team…what are the expectations? 4-65ish?

 

[Schmeabs]

Wilson is better than Adams

 

[FarFromHome]

Wilson is better than Adams

Thats really not the debate. The debate is who will see more targets between the two moving forward this year. Seems like a coin flip. Before Adams, Wilson was 30% of Rodgers attempts. Adams is gonna eat

 

[gbill2004]

Wilson is better than Adams

Sure but Adams has more chemistry with Rodgers and that's all that really matters.

 

[menobrown]

Wilson is better than Adams

I agree, don't think Adams was not the best receiving threat on the team he just left either. But it's like I saw someone write a few days ago that an anonymous coach said that Davante Adams is no longer elite but he is with Rodgers. That pretty much sums up how I feel.

I consider it a 1A/1B situation. Not similar to say Tyreek/Waddle and AJB/Devonta where there is clearly a 1 and a 2. Feel like this situation is going to be a little blurrier along those lines.

 

[Dizzy]

Wilson is better than Adams

At what... exactly?

Doesn't matter... none of it matters. We will just have to see who Rogers throws to. That will decide who is better for fantasy football purposes.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Wilson is not better than Adams. I wish that was the case as someone who has Wilson on his fantasy football roster. This is why I dreaded this situation. Now we need to accept it and expect inconsistent results or trade him.

 

[GreenNGold]

Wilson is better than Adams

People also thought Mike Williams was better than Allen Lazard before the season started, but one is clearly a better fit than the other.

Also, I don't think Wilson has proven he is better than Adams yet, he has a ton of potential but is still developing. Adams is already proven elite, it's a matter of how healthy he still is.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Tough matchup
GW 7-68-0
DA 6-81-1

 

[irish eyes]

He is now an afterthought with Aaron's boyfriend there.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Well, that was not good way to earn AR’a trust.

 

[JohnnyU]

Well, that was not good way to earn AR’a trust.

Gave them 7 points

 

[Uncle Leo]

Surprised to see 9 targets tonight. Tied for the lead with DA and Breece.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Pretty happy with the targets. Not happy that the offensive production has not picked up

 

[packer_junkie]

Made every big play for the NYJ yesterday-- K and Defense were awful

 

[BlackCrowes]

who's rolling him out tonight? Debating over McClaurin

 

[Terpman22]

who's rolling him out tonight? Debating over McClaurin

All day baby

 

[BladeRunner]

who's rolling him out tonight? Debating over McClaurin

I am.

 

[BassNBrew]

who's rolling him out tonight? Debating over McClaurin

My other option would be something on the wire.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Is this a serious question? The kid has averaged over 20 points per game during the last 4 games for PPR owners. I’m sorry if you have better options and my post comes of as insulting.

NFL Week	Opp	Pts	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs
Week 5	@MIN	29.10	13	101	1
Week 6	BUF	24.70	8	107	1
Week 7	@PIT	13.10	5	61	0
Week 8	@NE	16.30	5	113	0

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

Until the team gives me evidence his role is reduced due to the Adams trade, I'm rolling with Wilson as a set-it-and-forget-it play. Which COULD happen, but hasn't yet!

 

[RaidersAreOne]

who's rolling him out tonight? Debating over McClaurin

I think Terry is a set it and forget it WR going forward. Who else are you starting at WR to decide between Wilson and Terry?

 

[Ray_T]

Until the team gives me evidence his role is reduced due to the Adams trade, I'm rolling with Wilson as a set-it-and-forget-it play. Which COULD happen, but hasn't yet!

Adams doesnt know enough of the playbook yet. he will continue with the current role until Adams proves he is the better player.

it may happen, but also, it may not.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Is this a serious question? The kid has averaged over 20 points per game during the last 4 games for PPR owners. I’m sorry if you have better options and my post comes of as insulting.

NFL Week	Opp	Pts	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs
Week 5	@MIN	29.10	13	101	1
Week 6	BUF	24.70	8	107	1
Week 7	@PIT	13.10	5	61	0
Week 8	@NE	16.30	5	113	0

Top 5 WR in PPR…

 

[IHEARTFF]

Mega elite tier let’s go

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

What a catch. What a player.

 

[menobrown]

Anyone still trying to say Davante Adams is the better player?

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Wilson to the moon.

 

[wgoldsph]

It's great when one of "your guys" has a game for the ages. Both catches were ridiculous.

 

[georg013]

When will this kid start getting respect? How many more hurdles must he overcome before he finally gets the credit he deserves? First it was chemistry. He still performed. Then it was Lazard. He still dominated. Next it was Rodgers. Top 7 still. Now, weeks later, we are just waiting on Adams to round into form and bury this kid. 30 point banger in ppr. Some people just don’t like him and that’s ok. I like production so I start him week after week. I don’t need to be the smartest owner in the room and overthink what my eyes have been telling me for 9 weeks now.

 

[wgoldsph]

I like production so I start him week after week.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Almost sat him for Olave. Went to bed at half miserable. Woke up and watched second half. Simply amazing. I’m not sure an argument can be made that another WR is better. I’m not saying he’s by himself the best, just saying no one better.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

This dude is ridiculously good.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Remember when the Adam’s addition was going to ruin GW production?

 

[FarFromHome]

Remember when the Adam’s addition was going to ruin GW production?

I had no idea if Adams addition was gonna help or hurt his production. I argued that Adams is gonna get similar overall targets, which you'd think would hurt it. In 3 games, Wilson has one more total targets than Adams. Wilson is just really good

 

[menobrown]

Got him on a lot of teams so was pulling for him last night and did not check to see if any of my opponents had him last night because I did not want twisted rooting interest instead of being able to freely root for him.

Gulp.

Pulled up my leagues and saw a whole bunch of 30 point scores from my opponents.

Just in dynasty alone 5 of the 7 leagues I don't have him him on my roster I faced him.

I'm blanking out on how to properly calculate probabilities but if anyone can I'm curious to know what the odds are of a 1 in 11 chance hitting 71.4% of the time in a sample of 7?

I only wish I'd have known before so I could have played one of those player props because anytime I face someone like this the odds of them going off seem disproportionate.

 

[fightingillini]

Wilson is actually pretty good. And it looks like WIlson and Adams can coexist. Rodgers throws 32 passes and 21 go to Adams and Wilson combined.

That 2nd TD catch is about as good as you will ever see.

 

[travdogg]

Wilson is actually pretty good. And it looks like WIlson and Adams can coexist. Rodgers throws 32 passes and 21 go to Adams and Wilson combined.

That 2nd TD catch is about as good as you will ever see.

And it probably would have been even more if Adams hadn't missed a quarter. There is very little stopping this from being east coast Kupp/Puka.

 

[FarFromHome]

Aloha. My name is FarFromHome and I got Wilsoned last night. Its a feeling of sadness that my therapist and I will spend some time on later today.

 

[Buckna]

Only wish I had acquired him on more teams, seems like the non-owners were the ones feeding the doom and gloom about Rodgers chemistry and Adam's impact. His actual owners, most weren't panicking.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Wilson is not better than Adams. I wish that was the case as someone who has Wilson on his fantasy football roster. This is why I dreaded this situation. Now we need to accept it and expect inconsistent results or trade him.

I could not find a trade partner so I’ve been happy with the points that he’s provided my team. I did try to trade them for Nabors and the other owner was not interested at all. I don’t blame them.

Henry and Wilson for Saquon and Nabors in a redraft PPR league. I thought it was a fair offer.

 

[BlackCrowes]

The first TD catch was no slouch either.

 

[KellysHeroes]

this is still an overpay, but GW's current production is making me feel good about it

• gave up Brown, A.J. PHI WR; Year 2025 Round 2 Draft Pick ; Year 2025 Round 3 Draft Pick
• got Wilson, Garrett NYJ WR

 

[Uncle Leo]

3 for 30 on 3 targets.

DA has 7 targets and 2 catches for 5 yards.

GW is a Stud, but it’s hard when you only have 3 targets.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Rodgers can’t move

 

[irish eyes]

Rodgers has to go. The entire coaching staff has to go. Wilson & Hall drowning with this joke of a franchise.