I would not be surprised if Ruggs never plays another down in the NFL.
I'd reverse that and say that I would be surprised if he ever played another down.
Pretty sure you’re saying the same thing.
Make no mistake, they're both saying things in the same direction -- I don't think anyone meant to imply that anyone was in disagreement. But they're only equivalent statements under the assumption that the word
surprise is appropriate anytime a true/false proposition ends up falling on the side that one considered to have the lesser probability. Which just depends on one's definition of
surprise. I usually think of
surprise as a bit more restrictive word.
You know: I flip a coin 100 times, and it lands heads 51 times. Am I
surprised that it landed heads more than 50 times, rather than 50 or fewer? No, not really, even though there was less than 0.5 probability of that occuring. If it landed heads 62 times,
now I'm definitely
surprised. So if you use a more restrictive definition of the word in that way, there is some gap, say in the 1/3 - 2/3 probability range, or wherever you want to put it, where neither outcome is really
surprising. This is what
@Don Quixote, I'm sure, was trying to say.
Let's use 1/3 as the threshold of surprise -- i.e., a thing is surprising to you if and only if you believed it had less than 1/3 probability of being true, and conversely, a thing that doesn't happen is surprising if and only if you believed it had greater than 2/3 probability of being true.
@Pip's Invitation wouldn't be surprised if the proposition (namely, "Ruggs plays again", which we'll call
q) is
false: therefore, he believes that P(
q) is <= 2/3.
@Don Quixote, however,
would be surprised if P is
true: therefore he believes not only that P(
q) <= 2/3, but further that P(
q) < 1/3.
But of course, the threshold is highly subjective. Even if one increases the threshold to 1/2, the definitive maximum, the two statements are not quite equivalent.
@Pip's Invitation would then believe that P(
q) <= 1/2, while
@Don Quixote would believe that P(
q) < 1/2 ... the only difference being that Pip
might think it's a toss-up, while we know Don definitely does not.