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WR Jayden Reed, GB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
I ain't even thinking about him with those QBs. Rather start a 2nd TE
You don't think "those QBs" will be feeding their best playmaker as much as possible?
the only question I have is whether we still want them with the QB change.
I got Reed in my auction for so cheap he was practically free, so I couldnt resist. I figured he was good to take another step, but todays performance was more than I could have hoped for. Glad I started him.
Now I gotta decide if I hold or if I look to trade him away.
Pickens was frustrating last year due to the QB situation. I think this years QB is better than last years QB but I get where you are coming from. My bet is the consistency will be better than what he had last year. QB not outstanding but also not horrible like it was last year. In the end I think he has a similar year. maybe slightly better but the numbers will be more consistent from week to week (which is usually good)
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
You may be right. But his ADP/AAV was still too high this year for me to be comfortable with. And I think Kirk will be more consistent, especially in PPR scoring.
they have mostly similar value. Pickens has more upside but a lower floor. Kirk has a higher floor but a less upside. so its really a matter of risk tolerance.
the way I put it... if you have both on your team and you think you have an opponent who should be an easy win for you, you start Kirk because he wont crap the bed and get you a zero.
but if you are playing a team you expect to lose, you want Pickens because he could put up a huge game for you that will turn the tide. Kirk will never do THAT for you. which is why I prefer Pickens.
in the end, its mostly personal preference. I prefer the guy with more upside because if he takes another step in his development and eliminates those low scoring weeks, suddenly hes a game breaker for you who is also consistent. and he is a younger player. still developing his game. Not sure kirk is at a point in his career where hes improving anymore
massraider
Footballguy
If Malik WIllis is throwing for 125 yards, I don't really care.
And three days ago it was undecided who was gonna get targets, now he's the guy?
How about this: Reed was the slot in 3 WR sets. When it was 2 WR, he was rarely on the field. It was Doubs and Watson/Wicks.
Well, if you bring in Willis or whoever, maybe they run more base, more two TEs. Less snaps for Reed. And he is unlikely to be a red zone threat.
Love him as a player, but I think he's flex at best till we see someone throwing for 250 yards for the Pack.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
[PFF]
routes run & targets week 1:
snap counts:
routes run & targets week 1:
PLAYER | ROUTES RUN | TARGETS |
| Doubs | 34 | 6 |
| Kraft | 30 | 2 |
| Reed | 28 | 6 |
| Watson | 28 | 5 |
| Jacobs | 20 | 3 |
| Wicks | 16 | 3 |
| Wilson | 10 | 3 |
| Musgrave | 8 | 3 |
| Melton | 0 | 0 |
| Sims | 0 | 0 |
snap counts:
PLAYER | SNAP COUNTS | PASS | PBLK | RUN | RBLK |
| Kraft | 64 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 23 |
| Doubs | 58 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Jacobs | 49 | 22 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| Reed | 48 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| Watson | 42 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Wicks | 31 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Musgrave | 17 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Wilson | 16 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Melton | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sims | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
rockaction
Footballguy
I said exactly this in the Wicks thread. I think there's less three and four-wide receiver sets. More two TEs or even two RBs. And they're going to run Jacobs and Wilson wild. I think.
Was his usage any different than the second half of last year, when he was a borderline WR1?
pinkstapler
Footballguy
He's shown to be one of the most explosive and dynamic players in this offense last season, and just did the same week 1. I'd still bet on him being one of the top 2 scoring receivers on this team by seasons end. The Love injury is crushing, and I can see people wanting to trade him in non-dynasty if they don't want to wait it out or worry Love will be out longer than 3-4 weeks. But tbh I care much more about formations and snap counts on middling players who win based on volume, and much less about that stuff on dynamic guys who win on talent. People like Harmon and other's who analyze WRs were already screaming last year Reed needs more touches. I think Love has shown he is more inclined to look Reeds way. And I think the coaching staff is smart enough to see what Reed delivers with his opportunities and continue finding ways to get the ball in his hands. Cream rises to the top. This Love injury is pretty brutal though because they obviously have good rapport; and Willis looked horrid.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
I mean 33 fantasy points on 8-9 touches is ****ing ludicrous of course he’s a sell high. But it would’ve been better if love is healthy. Still a must own player though
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
If he’s a “sell high” after one week will he be a “buy low” next week if he doesn’t produce with Malik at QB? This is insane. It’s a 17 game season and Love should be back in a couple of weeks. Reed is exactly who we thought he’d be.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Jamo or Jayden RoS
PPR + bonus for long plays & long TDs
PPR + bonus for long plays & long TDs
beef
Footballguy
I have the same decision to make, going Jamo. I don't have high hopes for Malik to be successful this week.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Coming off a big week, Jayden Reed may feast again: Reed took advantage of zone coverage in Week 1 and now faces another zone-heavy defense that struggled this past week.
The Colts played zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL last season and continued that trend into 2024, though they allowed the most passing yards while in zone (231) in Week 1.
Their efficiency metrics were also poor while in zone. ranking among the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per target (7.7), yards allowed per coverage snap (6.24) and yards per reception (10.0).
Jayden Reed delivered 100% of his fantasy production against the Eagles' zone coverage in Week 1, allowing him to rank second in PPR points per route run (1.19) among wide receivers with at least 15 routes run.
Green Bay Packers
Week 2 opponent: Indianapolis Colts
- Man coverage rate: 5.1% (30)
- Zone coverage rate: 84.8% (4)
Versus man
| Player | Routes run | Receptions | Receiving yards | Target rate | PPR points | FF PTS/RR |
| Christian Watson | 7 | 2 | 8 | 28.6% | 8.8 | 1.26 |
| Jayden Reed | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Romeo Doubs | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20.0% | 4.9 | 0.49 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.00 |
Versus zone
| Player | Routes run | Receptions | Receiving yards | Target rate | PPR points | FF PTS/RR |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Christian Watson | 21 | 1 | 5 | 14.3% | 1.5 | 0.07 |
| Jayden Reed | 20 | 4 | 138 | 25.0% | 23.8 | 1.19 |
| Romeo Doubs | 24 | 2 | 21 | 16.7% | 4.1 | 0.17 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 0.0 | 0.00 |
The Colts played zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL last season and continued that trend into 2024, though they allowed the most passing yards while in zone (231) in Week 1.
Their efficiency metrics were also poor while in zone. ranking among the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per target (7.7), yards allowed per coverage snap (6.24) and yards per reception (10.0).
Jayden Reed delivered 100% of his fantasy production against the Eagles' zone coverage in Week 1, allowing him to rank second in PPR points per route run (1.19) among wide receivers with at least 15 routes run.
Good stuff. How does Malik affect this, if at all?
Wouldn't that point to Jacobs being big? Reed will get his one or two jet sweep carries. That's about it.
Well, yeah, but I'd also think Reed gets some quick screens and RAC.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Oh that MFer gonna mess up a perfectly fine moist dream
Back in the day there were Lions fans who wanted to take him at #2 over Hutch
Vocal minority but still
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Jayde Reed 2023 receiving depth stats:
- 0-9 yds: 40.2% tgt 27/39 202 yds 7.5 y/rec 4 td 84 yac 3.2 yac/rec 5.18 y/tgt 2 mtf 10 fd 115.5 NFL pass rtg
- Behind LOS: 21.6% tgt 21/21 76 yds 3.6 y/rec 1 td 153 yac 7.3 yac/rec 3.62 yds/tgt 4 mtf 2 fd 97.6 NFL pass etc
TartanLion
Footballguy
They’ve always manufactured a variety of plays to get Reed involved so the lack of QB is less of a thing than usual, imo. Yes they will run more but I’m sure they will also increase the volume of plays designed to get the ball to him. It probably will not yield week 1 results, but I think he has a reasonable floor
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
I benched him in all leagues. Malik Willis is TERRIBLE. I'd consider starting Colts Defense this week.
Him and Love are a package deal. I don't trust Willis to get him the ball.
Him and Love are a package deal. I don't trust Willis to get him the ball.
Chaka
Footballguy
IDK I'm a little torn about him this week. I hate that Willis is the QB but I also think Lafleur is going to get more creative with the offense and I expect Reed to get 3-4 carries and/or be involved in a flea flicker of some sort.
Probably not a great starting option for fantasy but I don't think he is a must bench player either.
Probably not a great starting option for fantasy but I don't think he is a must bench player either.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
Yeah I agree about his usage, but if we know that, then the Colts DC knows this too. Especially after a big performance, the gameplan on defense will be to stop #11 and force Malik Willis to beat you through the air.
Colts have the better offense and can get up two scores to make Packers offense one dimensional with a poor QB behind the helm.
I don't know, sometimes you gotta know when to sit them. Hopefully Jordan Love suits up and I can start him though, because Malik Willis is possibly the worst of the worst. God awful even.
True. Willis has some issues, but he also has a Rocket for an arm.
The one WR who may benefit could be Reed. Reed has the speed, so if Malik can fire a rocket to him downfield he only needs this to happen successfully once a game to remain fantasy relevant regardless of how bad he is otherwise.
Chaka
Footballguy
According to Tecmo Super Bowl, Bubby Brister also had a cannon and he never had a receiver with more than 50 receptions or 973 yards or 7 TDs.
one way or another, we are about to find out.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
Watson fits the deep threat mold more than Reed.
As someone who has a few Reed shares, I'd love to share Harmon's borderline WR1 optimism, but its also been (mostly) 2 chase scripts in Love's 2 starts. Reed still only plays in 3-WR sets, and while the rush attempts are nice, he's not enough of a target share priority to really trust that much. Love him as a WR3 with upside, but I need to see more before feeling WR1 is on the table. Maybe Watson's injury will be the catalyst for that?
TartanLion
Footballguy
Absolute baller. I’d reiterate that it doesn’t matter that he’s off the field in 2WR sets as long as they prioritise getting him the ball when he is on the field, and they certainly seem to do that. Watson now out as well and with what Reed is producing all the can do is look for ways to get him on the field more and the ball even more.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
How would you rank these WRs for the rest of the year?
- Reed
- Harrison Jr
- Garrett Wilson
Chaka
Footballguy
[cheaplaugh]By height[/cheaplaugh]
The Gator
Footballguy
Last edited:
The Gator
Footballguy
I like the player profiler comp of Diggs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Makes sense. Hes Ike 75% Diggs and 25% Deebo
maybe if he improves more he becomes super Deebo
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Given his age that’s on the table for sure
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
One of the best young offensive players in the league
