Nah, because Shahanan never targets his main guy near the end zone, despite doing so more than both Brown and ODB were this year.
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WR Julio Jones, PHI (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Team Smokin'
- Start date
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Interestingly, I've not seen anyone write about the huge NFL record that Julio actually *DID* break this last weekend. With 94 receiving first downs on the year, Julio Jones broke the record of 92 set by Harrison in 2002 and tied by Calvin in 2012. It's a better record than the receptions one, anyway.
Chaka
Footballguy
I had Julio as my #3 WR going in to 2015 as well.Chaka said:
Your post is a great example about how frustrating TSP can be. I had him as my #3 WR, bumped him to #2 because of this thread, was consistently complimentary of his talent and even agreed on multiple occasions that he could expect a bump in targets, receptions and yards under Shanahan but for some reason people think I am down on the guy because I said I didn't think he was a good bet for double digit TDs under Shanhan as other WRs of similar ability/opportunity.
It's bizarre.
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Great, actually, unless you think putting up by far the best fantasy season of his career, and one of the best in history, is somehow not great?Chaka said:How did that work out for Julio this year?Nah, because Shahanan never targets his main guy near the end zone, despite doing so more than both Brown and ODB were this year.
Setting career highs and being among the league leaders near the end zone (better than the guys you're touting) should at least put to bed your ridiculous premise that Shanny doesn't target his main WR down there, but yet, here we are...
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Chaka
Footballguy
And I agreed that he would have a great yardage year from the start (and receptions if that is your thing) so there was never any disagreement between us there.Great, actually, unless you think putting up by far the best fantasy season of his career, and one of the best in history, is somehow not great?Chaka said:How did that work out for Julio this year?Nah, because Shahanan never targets his main guy near the end zone, despite doing so more than both Brown and ODB were this year.
Setting career highs and being among the league leaders near the end zone (better than the guys you're touting) should at least put to bed your ridiculous premise that Shanny doesn't target his main WR down there, but yet, here we are...
I know you like to hold onto the whole red zone comment, I am happy to admit I was wrong about that if it will get you to let it go because it is distracting from the actual point. The bottom line of my entire stance in this thread is that I believe that the system run by Shanahan (and similarly to Kubiak and Shanahan Sr.) does not favor high TD numbers from their #1 WRs (for whatever reason) and nothing that happened this year has made me question that position. Julio had 8 on 203 targets and Demaryius had 6 on 177 targets it's tough to call that anything other than a disappointment. The last time an offense run by any of those guy produced a WR with double digit TDs is 2001 and it has been 28 seasons collectively since anyone of them has managed it. You may call that statistical variance, or "magical TD numbers", but it definitely looks like a duck and quacks like a duck so I'm calling it a duck.
I am not saying, and have never said, that it will never happen again in their system but for those of us for whom TDs are important for fantasy performance it is important to factor it in when ranking WRs. Therefore Antonio Brown>Julio Jones and depending on what happens with the Giants staff then ODB>Julio. Not sure I could reasonably put any other WR ahead of him right now.
What I find bizarre is that people seem to get so upset that I dare to rank Julio as the #3 WR on my board (he finished #5 in my league behind Brown, ODB, Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson), and they actually seem to think that by ranking him #3 I am somehow suggesting that he will have a bad season.
Poncho
Footballguy
Id be happy to get either OBJ, Antonio or Julio in a ppr dynasty. Ill even throw Hopkins in that group.....
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
But why don't you like him?
Our entire back-and-forth has been about Kyle Shanahan and his usage of his #1 WR near the end zone. My post that started our exchange is here. Notice there is zero mention of other WRs or where you ranked them. In fact, the only time I've ever mentioned other WRs is to explicitly say I have no problem with anyone taking them over Julio, this conversation has always been strictly about Kyle and his impact on Julio, specifically in the red zone, That doesn't mean everyone should take him over Bryant, but that isn't what this conversation is about, You can stop being obtuse any time you're ready- we've been talking about Julio Jones and what impact Kyle Shannahan is going to have on his TDs. What scheme they run in Dallas, Pitt, or how many TDs Dez or Brown score have absolutely nothing to do with that discussion, and, most recently, I reminded you that I never even mentioned your preseason rankings until after you brought them up much later, only to say that I don't care about them.
I'm glad that you've finally admitted that you were wrong about Shanahan. Unfortunately, you're still going strong with the straw man. I don't think anyone "attacked" you over your rankings- I certainly didn't, despite your best efforts to twist things and play the victim here.
Chaka
Footballguy
I said I was wrong to move the conversation forward. I will use the phrase "for whatever reason" going forward. My premise always has and always will be low TD production for #1 WRs in Shanahan's system. I stand by that and the facts support it.
Jed
Footballguy
If they are all healthy, flip a coin every week. Doesn't really matter who anyone has ranked ahead of the other when it comes to those 3.
Chaka said:
How do you type this stuff with a straight face? I linked your very first post about the subject above, where you said "The problem with the Shannahan/Kubiak system is that the #1 WR is generally not the top target in the red zone and particularly not near the stripe." My response to that was saying I kind of think the opposite, saying that AJ led the team in red zone TDs while Shanny was there and showing how that wasn't true for Julio pre-Shanny. A little more back and forth, it was dropped for a month and a half, and then you re-started it by quoting one of my posts where I said his red zone usage was likely to improve under Shanahan and saying "You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone." I can link at least another half dozen of your posts about red zone usage, saying he doesn't throw to his #1 WR in the red zone as much as Haley and Linehan, he uses his #1 WR as a decoy down near the end zone and instead throws to their #3 TE, etc.
Shanny's lack of red zone usage is and always has been your false premise. You've tried to change the subject a few times, including completely making up a narrative that people were somehow angry with you for where you ranked him, but no amount of straw men can change reality.
cmv5
Footballguy
I don't know if semantics is the right word but I get his point. The conversation can't move forward because you are so intent on holding him to this red zone targets statement.
I haven't pored over his posts but I got the gist of it. Chaka more or less was saying take heed because in the Shanny offense, for whatever reason, the usage doesn't translate to touchdowns. It was something that caught my attention and it kind of played out that way.
Do you want to keep revisiting the targets point or do you want to see if there is maybe a reason for the number one wide receiver in this offense to not be getting as many touchdowns? We can talk about how that is not the case but let's not keep stalling any thoughtful conversation.
Chaka
Footballguy
Does your league reward you extra for red zone receptions?Chaka said:
How do you type this stuff with a straight face? I linked your very first post about the subject above, where you said "The problem with the Shannahan/Kubiak system is that the #1 WR is generally not the top target in the red zone and particularly not near the stripe." My response to that was saying I kind of think the opposite, saying that AJ led the team in red zone TDs while Shanny was there and showing how that wasn't true for Julio pre-Shanny. A little more back and forth, it was dropped for a month and a half, and then you re-started it by quoting one of my posts where I said his red zone usage was likely to improve under Shanahan and saying "You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone." I can link at least another half dozen of your posts about red zone usage, saying he doesn't throw to his #1 WR in the red zone as much as Haley and Linehan, he uses his #1 WR as a decoy down near the end zone and instead throws to their #3 TE, etc.
Shanny's lack of red zone usage is and always has been your false premise. You've tried to change the subject a few times, including completely making up a narrative that people were somehow angry with you for where you ranked him, but no amount of straw men can change reality.
Whatever you say man. You and I have been arguing past each other for far too long. If you don't understand that I have been talking about TDs for the entire time, when I have made it perfectly clear probably a dozen times (because you didn't understand it when I said red zone), then that is on you.
How many TDs did Julio score this year? Has any Shanahan Jr. WR ever caught ten or more TDs?
Scoreboard baby. I win, you lose.
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shader
Footballguy
I personally think Julio should be above Beckham next year, but I wouldn't fault anyone for putting Julio at 3. Beckham should really take that leap next year statistically.
I think Julio is a monster, but much will depend on what they do in the off-season. Historically a guy with that many touches will see his numbers fall back. But Julio right now is virtually unguardable. I know we throw that around sometimes, but it really was the case this year. Matt Ryan had a poor year and the offense struggled a lot. I think the addition of more weapons will see Julio's targets drop slightly, but should result in more red-zone opportunities.
I love Beckham and Hopkins, but I think right now we are in the middle of something special with Julio and Brown, and until they start showing signs of aging (Julio is currently still 26 so that shouldn't even be a question yet), I don't know how you can go away from them.
Yes, the scenario exists where Beckham blows past Julio and Brown to the top spot, I'll agree.
But I also think we may be about to witness the greatest 4-year period of any WR in history with Julio. When I've watched his games, teams just don't have an answer for him. He's physically unstoppable.
I think Julio is a monster, but much will depend on what they do in the off-season. Historically a guy with that many touches will see his numbers fall back. But Julio right now is virtually unguardable. I know we throw that around sometimes, but it really was the case this year. Matt Ryan had a poor year and the offense struggled a lot. I think the addition of more weapons will see Julio's targets drop slightly, but should result in more red-zone opportunities.
I love Beckham and Hopkins, but I think right now we are in the middle of something special with Julio and Brown, and until they start showing signs of aging (Julio is currently still 26 so that shouldn't even be a question yet), I don't know how you can go away from them.
Yes, the scenario exists where Beckham blows past Julio and Brown to the top spot, I'll agree.
But I also think we may be about to witness the greatest 4-year period of any WR in history with Julio. When I've watched his games, teams just don't have an answer for him. He's physically unstoppable.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Congratulations on your message board championshipDoes your league reward you extra for red zone receptions?Whatever you say man. You and I have been arguing past each other for far too long. If you don't understand that I have been talking about TDs for the entire time, when I have made it perfectly clear probably a dozen times (because you didn't understand it when I said red zone), then that is on you.Chaka said:
Shanny's lack of red zone usage is and always has been your false premise. You've tried to change the subject a few times, including completely making up a narrative that people were somehow angry with you for where you ranked him, but no amount of straw men can change reality.
How many TDs did Julio score this year? Has any Shanahan Jr. WR ever caught ten or more TDs?
Scoreboard baby. I win, you lose.
You get his straw man point. The actual point is in the very first link I posted above, in the multiple other links I gave, and in several other posts that I didn't link but are all there in black and white- red zone, red zone, goal line, red zone, etc. That was what started this silly debate and what it has always been about, despite his efforts to spin in into something else. If after the initial exchange he had just said something like "interesting, I didn't realize that Shanny actually has targeted his #1 guy a lot in the red zone", we would have moved on long ago. I am done with that topic however, facts are facts and I'm not going to waste anymore time trying to prove to him that water is indeed wet.
Moving on to TDs, I gave some thoughts on that here. In past years, part of it is that Shanny really hasn't had much to work with- a washed up McNabb and Rex Grossman to an aging Santana Moss in 2010, Rex Grossman and John Beck to Jabbar Gaffney in 2011, rookie RGIII to an injured Garcon in 2012, Bryan Hoyer to Andrew Hawkins in 2014, etc. Schaub and Sage Rosenfels to AJ was easily his best combination, and while he didn't get him to 10 TDs he did get him to his highest TD total (9), and he averaged ~3.5 more TDs per season under Shanny than he did under all of the other OCs in his career.
For this year, it's hard to pinpoint one exact reason. Ryan certainly regressed some- he had the lowest QBR since his 2nd year, and went from having one of the best ratings in the red zone to one of the worst. He said recently that the new offense was "too much" for him at times. They had 7 more turnovers than last year (net turnovers went from +5 to -7), including several in the red zone (Ryan had 5 INTs in the red zone alone). Despite having 32 more receptions on the year, Julio had 6 fewer catches of 20+ yards and didn't get his 1st TD on a ball thrown more than 20 yards in the air until week 16. He only averaged 10.33 air yards per target, which 46th in the league. Etc.
As a Julio owner in dynasty, I'm ecstatic with the season and excited with how it finished so strongly. Having Shanahan as his OC is a major plus- I really hope he sticks around, I'd love to see what he can do with another year in the system.
No, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
at scoreboard. Considering total points is what matters and putting it in context of ADP, Julio was the best value out of all of the WRs drafted in the 1st two rounds this year.
themitch
Footballguy
While I agree with you that Julio is a beast and should be considered one of the best WRs in football for the next few years to come, I think that Nuk takes the best value in the 1st 2 rounds for the 2015 fantasy season.No, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
He had a 3rd/4th round ADP (depending on number of teams). Allen Robinson and Brandon Marshall were even better values, but had much lower ADPs.themitch said:While I agree with you that Julio is a beast and should be considered one of the best WRs in football for the next few years to come, I think that Nuk takes the best value in the 1st 2 rounds for the 2015 fantasy season.No, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
Chaka
Footballguy
ScoreboardNo, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
I won both of my championships with Julio leading the way. How did ranking Dez (with his stud coordinator) #1 work out for you?ScoreboardNo, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
Scoreboard indeed.
Chaka
Footballguy
Dunno. I drafted ODB and traded for Julio in week 11 even though I hate him and think he is terrible.I won both of my championships with Julio leading the way. How did ranking Dez (with his stud coordinator) #1 work out for you?ScoreboardNo, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
Scoreboard indeed.
Championship.
Scoreboard.
I can see why you are so salty- Julio was a real anchor in shark leagues like yours that give 100 bonus points for reaching 10 TDs. Hope you didn't trade for him because of me...Dunno. I drafted ODB and traded for Julio in week 11 even though I hate him and think he is terrible.I won both of my championships with Julio leading the way. How did ranking Dez (with his stud coordinator) #1 work out for you?ScoreboardNo, my league rewards me for points- do you get a bonus for hitting 10 TDs on the season? That's why I kept telling you when you tried to change the subject that your magical 10 TD mark was meaningless because it's only one part of the equation. 1600 yards and 9 TDs is better than 1500 and 10, even though that 10 number has been a major hang up for you for some reason.
Scoreboard indeed.
Championship.
Scoreboard.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Is this still really happening in here? Could you guys just shut the hell up?
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Not a bad thread from 2012. Julio still holding as the #3-5 overall pick in the 2016 draft. Could Julio be the #1 WR in fantasy this year? Sure, someone has to be. He'll get forcefed a lot, defenses try to take him out, but he still comes up big. He's one the best WR's in the league...when healthy.
Keith1
Footballguy
drafting tomorrow night and I just know I am going to be looking at Julio with the # 4 pick in my modified PPR league (1 pt. for every 2 recepts).
Any updates on his ankle ?
Todem
Footballguy
Seriously??? Faust posted an article that answers your question. The guy wanted to back into the game.
Nothing to see here.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm going to be honest, whenever this thread gets bumped I'm likely going to have a panic attack since I owned him the season he broke his foot.
Hope that it's true there's nothing, just like to cover my bases with such a valuable guy. As far as I have read, he hasn't really been practicing yet since the game.
jedimindtricks
Footballguy
He barely ever practiced the entire second half of last season. I'm a Julio owner and am not concerned at all.
Did you see the game? I did, and Julio was limping pretty good. Didn't look like he had any interest in returning to a preseason game. I'm not saying there is necessarily anything "to see here," but given how we overlooked so many preseason injuries last season to our detriment (Alshon anyone?) I don't think there's anything wrong with keeping our ear to the floor.
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BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Julio Jones expected to be a full participant in practice Wednesday
Posted by Darin Gantt on September 5, 2016, 1:04 PM EDT
AP
Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is going to ease into the week, but should be ready by Sunday.
Via the team’s official website, coach Dan Quinn said that both his star wideout and running backTerron Ward would be limited in practice today, but should be full participants Wednesday.
Jones has been bothered by an ankle injury since the Week 3 preseason game against the Dolphins in Orlando. But full participation Wednesday would be a good sign for Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Julio Jones - WR - Falcons
Julio Jones (ankle) will get in a full practice on Thursday.
The word comes straight from coach Dan Quinn. Jones is ready to rock as a top-three WR1 against a Bucs team he tore up last season.
Julio Jones (ankle) will get in a full practice on Thursday.
The word comes straight from coach Dan Quinn. Jones is ready to rock as a top-three WR1 against a Bucs team he tore up last season.
