WR Keenan Allen, CHI (2 Viewers)

[Gr00vus]

Is the consensus that Allen > Brown for San Diego?. I had picked up Brown and cannot afford to carry both. Looking for a home run, I sense that is now Allen, not Brown

I think it will vary week to week. Since Floyd went down Brown has been getting WR attention from the D. I imagine that will shift as Allen has success. That said I like Allen's overall talent more than Brown's so I think Allen will do more with similar targets. In FF terms I think Allen's a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. Brown is a low end WR3. Going forward, Gates is still top dog in the reception pecking order, I'd put Woodhead and Allen in the next tier, then Brown and Royal. Of course if some defensive game plan fails to account for one of them, Rivers will hammer that failure as he did with Royal to start the season. Bringing me full circle to my initial statement - expect variation week to week.

 

[shadyridr]

Is the consensus that Allen > Brown for San Diego?. I had picked up Brown and cannot afford to carry both. Looking for a home run, I sense that is now Allen, not Brown

there is no consensus

 

[SameSongNDance]

Posted this in another thread..

Snap Percentages

Brown - 91% - 94% - 93% - 99%

Allen - 0% - 53% - 83% - 94%

Royal - 55% - 73% - 54% - 84%

Flloyd - 98% - 43% - 0% - 0%

Targets

Gates - 4 - 10 - 7 - 10 (31 total)

Brown - 4 - 7 - 3 - 9 (23 total)

Royal - 6 - 8 - 2 - 3 (19 total)

Allen - 0 - 3 - 1 - 6 (10 total)

Flloyd - 5 - 6 - 0 - 0 (11 total)

Woodhead - 3 - 9 - 8 - 7 (27 total)

I think something is quite clear here and that is goes Gates -> Woodhead - > Brown -> Allen -> Royal as far as the pecking order is concerned. The wildcard here however is Allen, whose snap percentage/targets have obviously shared an inverse relationship with that of Flloyds. I think it's very feasible, judging by how poorly Brown has performed up until this point that Allen could find himself third in line on a weekly basis.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Is the consensus that Allen > Brown for San Diego?. I had picked up Brown and cannot afford to carry both. Looking for a home run, I sense that is now Allen, not Brown

It's become pretty clear that Allen has the higher ceiling IMO. He doesn't have the top end speed, but his short area burst and acceleration are fantastic. He's also great at attacking the ball in the air dating back to his Cal days. Rivers loves to throw it up.

 

[thecardiackid]

I'm thinking about 6 for 85 and a score tonight, in this bonus "prime time" game for SD and OAK. Started him over tompkins and I think this game will be good w/ Pryor back from the concussion. Hopefully the rook is up for it, and Rivers looks his way early and often.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Is the consensus that Allen > Brown for San Diego?. I had picked up Brown and cannot afford to carry both. Looking for a home run, I sense that is now Allen, not Brown

Yes Allen > Brown

I don't think Brown should be rostered

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

CHOO MFING CHOO!!!!!!!

 

[SameSongNDance]

CHOO MFING CHOO!!!!!!!

 

[jbz]

Returned punts down the stretch too. Was worried a bit in the beginning, but Rivers looked his way down the stretch. Had a TD called back and Rivers targeted him on the last INT in the endzone and he burned his man, but the throw was off.

 

[flapgreen]

CHOO MFING CHOO!!!!!!!

 

[flapgreen]

Spent big bucks picking this guy up. Keep it up brah

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I got him for free. Bunch of noobs don't know about the keenan allen hype train.

 

[rjv]

I got him for free. Bunch of noobs don't know about the keenan allen hype train.

Same here!!

 

[Otis]

Great circle jerk in here, but can anyone who actually stayed up for this completely stupid 11:30ET start give us some color on how he looked and how it bodes for Allen going forward?

Thanks.

 

[We Tigers]

I'm quite glad this one paid off, as I was feeling pretty dumb on Broyles. Yes, he got everything in the second half, but he seems to have definitely taken over Malcom Floyd's spot in both name and duty. Carry on, Keenan.

 

[zamboni]

Great circle jerk in here, but can anyone who actually stayed up for this completely stupid 11:30ET start give us some color on how he looked and how it bodes for Allen going forward?

Thanks.

Agreed - not that I generally listen to Rotoworld, but this is their perspective:

(Rotoworld)Keenan Allen caught six passes for 115 yards and one touchdown and got a majority of snaps on the outside in two-wide sets in Sunday night's Week 5 loss to Oakland.

Analysis: Allen continues to play the outside in two-wide sets and is a legitimate red-zone threat, scoring his touchdown from eight yards out. He was targeted nine times by Phillip Rivers and has now put together two straight weeks of at least five receptions and 80 yards receiving. Allen is still no higher than the No. 4 option in the passing game and got all of his yardage in the second half with the Chargers playing from behind. He's worth a look as a WR4 flier in deeper fantasy leagues.

 

[shadyridr]

Great circle jerk in here, but can anyone who actually stayed up for this completely stupid 11:30ET start give us some color on how he looked and how it bodes for Allen going forward?

Thanks.

Agreed - not that I generally listen to Rotoworld, but this is their perspective:

(Rotoworld)Keenan Allen caught six passes for 115 yards and one touchdown and got a majority of snaps on the outside in two-wide sets in Sunday night's Week 5 loss to Oakland.

Analysis: Allen continues to play the outside in two-wide sets and is a legitimate red-zone threat, scoring his touchdown from eight yards out. He was targeted nine times by Phillip Rivers and has now put together two straight weeks of at least five receptions and 80 yards receiving. Allen is still no higher than the No. 4 option in the passing game and got all of his yardage in the second half with the Chargers playing from behind. He's worth a look as a WR4 flier in deeper fantasy leagues.

RW is awful. They said Terrance Williams was off the fantasy radar last week and Philips Rivers starting WR is only a deep flier? LMAO

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Great circle jerk in here, but can anyone who actually stayed up for this completely stupid 11:30ET start give us some color on how he looked and how it bodes for Allen going forward?

Thanks.

I watched every last minute of it.

2 and a half hours sleep. What I remember is a whole lot of garbage time, and the Raiders basically gave Allen and Vincent Brown chunks of yardage. They started to vise down on Antonio Gates after some early success. Allen looked good though. Caught everything within reason, seemed to have soft hands. He was not fighting the ball or trying to corral it. Very fluid reciever even if his speed doesn't jump out at you. Knows how to get open and once he catches the ball, is quick to tuck it away. I like what I see. Just remember that his statline doesn't happen unless the Raiders defense didn't soften up into garbage time. Still, going forward in Floyd's old role, there's more games like this on the horizon. Those that missed out on the Allen train on last weeks waivers, it's too late now.

 

[We Tigers]

Rotoworld offers silly analysis. They make it sound like this was the Jags vs the Seahawks, where the entire last 20 minutes of the game was garbage time. Allen's TD with ten minutes left made it 24-17. Roto also doesn't mention that he almost had another red zone TD, but had it overturned on review.

If he catches 3 passes for 90 yards in the first half next week, they'll call him a boom/bust WR3. If he has another 100-yard game they'll say he has weekly WR2 potential as the top outside receiver in a high octane San Diego passing attack.

 

[zamboni]

Rotoworld offers silly analysis.

Agreed - wasn't commenting on their analysis of what they thought of Allen going forward - but rather the accuracy that his production was during garbage time. I trust 90% of the folks here over RW any day.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Here's the target breakdown..

Gates - 10

Allen - 9

Brown - 9

Woodhead - 9

Royal - 8

I don't have the snaps yet but I watched the entire game and already know Allen was likely on the field 90-95% again. Also, Raidersfan is spot on with his evaluation and what's even more exciting is how often he was being utilized in the red zone. He could have had 3 TDs on the night as one was called back (I still say he knee was in) and on the other he got wide open but Rivers saw him too late, tried to force it and threw a pick.

I do agree having to play catch-up vs. OAK's weak secondary can do wonders for any receiver/receiving core but this was undoubtedly another big step forward for him.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

what's even more exciting is how often he was being utilized in the red zone. He could have had 3 TDs on the night as one was called back (I still say he knee was in) and on the other he got wide open but Rivers saw him too late, tried to force it and threw a pick.

Dan Fouts agrees with you. I still say a knee does not equal two feet. But to echo your point about red zone usage, this is exactly what I see and left out of my first post. He's the man down in the red zone. He towers over relatively smurfy Brown and Royal. We know over the years, that Rivers has a great arm and isn't afraid to put the ball up for the jumb grab provided he trusts the wideout and that the wideout is a big tall target. He did that with VJAX and Floyd. No reason to think he won't do the same for Allen. He aldready looks like the #1 wideout, you know what I mean? Brown or Royal? not so much. Anyway, probably getting ahead of myself, but Rivers is an excellent QB who can put the ball in a nice window. Allen is a big target that match perfectly the type of throw that Rivers feels comfortable throwing. He should be getting a lot of red zone targets going forward and the trust/chemistry is already there.

 

[RBM]

Fell asleep at halftime, good to see the final numbers. But I was not encouraged by the first half usage. Brown, Gates, Woodhead and even Royal all were more involved.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

cant wait to chase these points this coming week and get a 3/30 performance

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Watched most of the game last night, and I'm not sure how anyone can say definitively that his TD that was reversed should have counted. The camera angles around the backside of the endzone were terrible in this game. He very well could have had his knee come down out of bounds. Which is what the referees reversed the call to.

Also, the reason Allen got the TD that he did was because of a 30 yard TD that Vincent Brown scored was called back a few plays earlier. The LT wasn't close enough to the line of scrimmage so there was an illegal formation penalty called.

I was impressed by Allen in this game. He's a better player than I thought going in. However, Vincent Brown showed he's far more than just a possession guy as well. He got behind coverage for a 51 yard bomb, and easily blew by coverage for the 30 yard TD that was called back. Brown still posted an 8/117 stat line.

I am very much inclined to agree with what the SD homers have been preaching. Gates is the #1 target. Beyond that, Rivers is going to spread it around. This week Brown and Allen shined. Next week it could be Royal again. IMO behind Gates everybody (Allen, Brown, Royal) is a dicey WR4.

 

[Sweetness_34]

The best thing for the SD WRs is the fact that Rivers has no issues slinging the ball and the fact that the SD D sucks so much, they are always having to pass to win a game. Yesterday, Rivers had less than 150 (closer to 100) yards passing in the 1st half. And then he ends up with 400+ for the game. Get used to this.....especially when they play Denver twice. Lots of passing required and garbage time points count the same in FF.

 

[Beerguzzler]

The best thin about the Chargers offense is that the Chargers defense is complete ### and the offense is virtually guaranteed of being in shootouts on a weekly basis. I love Allen's potential, but like I've mentioned before, rivers is an equal opportunity passer. His red zone targets are encouraging going forward.

Rivers already has 3 400 yard games this season. I see a few more in his future with the lack of challenging defenses left on the schedule aside from KC.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Cut Randle forAllen last week, obviously Randle had a big weekend on a soft Philly D, I think Allen is much more likely to replicate the numbers moving forward over Randle.

 

[CalBear]

He's a player, and now he has the opportunity. He'll be better than a fantasy WR4 going forward; do you really think there are 36 guys who have a better combination of talent and situation in the NFL right now? Gates/Woodhead limit his upside, but he should be in the top 30 WRs going forward, with possibilities of top 20.

 

[LawFitz]

Let's recap here now that Malcom Floyd is officially out of the picture for 2013, which IMO is very big news.

Combined Floyd and Allen stats this season -

vs. Hou - 98% of snaps, 5 tgt, 1 rec, 47 yds (all Floyd)

@ Phi - 96% snaps, 9 tgt, 7 rec, 136 yds (Floyd hurt after posting 5/102 on 53% of snaps)

@ Ten - 83% snaps, 1 tgt, 1 rec, -4 yds

vs. Dal - 94% snaps, 6 tgt, 5 rec, 80 yds

Keenan is now the deep threat on an offense that seems very potent. If he's better than Malcom Floyd - and aside from straight line speed, I think he is in every other way - this guy is now in position to make some serious noise. Temper expectations given that he's a rookie and has a bummy knee, but skills wise and opportunity wise, this is a very sneaky situation for fantasy.

I'm on the wagon on one team with suspect WR depth, but still lurking for another where my WRs are stacked. I love that sans the Ten week, his first as an NFL starter, against a stout D, his YPR is very nice. I also think he's going to be a G/L threat as teams focus on Gates, Royal and Woodhead.

But that Dallas line sure seems like a standard Floyd line, very nice, especially when you throw in a TD.

Watch the game rewind and you'll be even more impressed. Several of the catches he made weren't easy at all AND the sixth target was to him in the end zone where he had his man beat, but Rivers overthrew b/c he was scrambling and going down as he threw it. A better pass and Allen's line would've been 6 for 6 for 90 and a TD, and Allen would be THE hot waiver pickup right now. Instead everyone's still snoozing on him. Take it fwiw.

Bumping these two posts, not just to pat myself for a blind squirrel moment, but to point out that Allen was targeted twice more last night in the end zone, beside his actual TD. The first time, he was barely OOB, on a play that had to be overturned b/c it was so close. On the other one, Rivers was late, and threw it behind Allen, when Allen had his man beat and was open for another TD. These two plays were on top of his beastly TD from the five yard line where he had to break a tackle to bully his way across the money stripe.

So in the last two games, he very easily could have had four TDs, with the following stat lines...

6 tgt, 6 rec, 85 yds, 1 TD

9 tgt, 8 rec, 130 yds, 3 TD

Had that happened, how much do you think you'd bid on him tomorrow? Better think hard about that if you're WR needy and not let someone steal this guy from you over a few extra waiver dollars.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

So in the last two games, he very easily could have had four TDs, with the following stat lines...

6 tgt, 6 rec, 85 yds, 1 TD

9 tgt, 8 rec, 130 yds, 3 TD

Had that happened, how much do you think you'd bid on him tomorrow? Better think hard about that if you're WR needy and not let someone steal this guy from you over a few extra waiver dollars.

probably about as much as people spent on royal

 

[BlueBlazer05]

Funny thing, I blew a big chunk of my FAAB money on Royal but picked up Allen for free. I actually started both this week due to injuries and bye weeks and one of them hit. Still not sure if Allen's gonna be consistent going forward, but yeah, SD should keep throwing the ball early and often in games.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Funny thing, I blew a big chunk of my FAAB money on Royal but picked up Allen for free. I actually started both this week due to injuries and bye weeks and one of them hit. Still not sure if Allen's gonna be consistent going forward, but yeah, SD should keep throwing the ball early and often in games.

as was already noted, he piled up a lot of that yardage camping in big holes in what I guess was oakland's prevent? towards the end of the game, but he did seem to get endzone looks just about every time they were down there, and he seemed pretty athletic catching the ball.

 

[kOOk]

He's a player, and now he has the opportunity. He'll be better than a fantasy WR4 going forward; do you really think there are 36 guys who have a better combination of talent and situation in the NFL right now? Gates/Woodhead limit his upside, but he should be in the top 30 WRs going forward, with possibilities of top 20.

says the gal from cal

 

[drew726]

In a 16-teamer, with david wilson and michael floyd on my bench, this guy is my savior at flex.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Let's look towards the immediate future..

IND isn't OAK, and OAK taking an early lead was obviously the best case scenario for Allen owners last week.

IND is allowing the the 14th fewest points to opposing WRs in standard (13th fewest in PPR) so they're a bit more stout this year than people had expected. I do not believe however that this is an accurate representation of IND's ability as they have faced OAK, MIA, SF, JAC and SEA, all which (aside from MIA who is ranked 15th) rank bottom 10 in the league in passing YPG. SD will be INDs first real test on defense this year IMO.

IND also seems to be susceptible to opposing teams blatant WR1s, as they've given up the most points to D.Moore (5/43/1), Wallace(5/115/1), Boldin (5/67/0), Shorts (7/61/0) and Tate (5/61/1). This may bode well for Allen, as he fits the WR1 mold and is obviously being heavily utilized in the RZ.

Lastly, the game is on Monday night, and next to DAL vs. WAS, is projected to be the highest scoring affair of the week. I'm going to keep expectations tempered but I think a 5/60/1 stat line is very doable.

 

[rascal]

Trying to decide between him and Jeffrey.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Finally took the training wheels off my fantasy team and decided to shun the rankings. Tired of getting marginal points in PPR from the likes of MJD, CJ?K (who had a decent week), and TRich. Benching them all for the likes of the Keenan Allens and Terrance Williams, so lightly regarded in the weekly rankings. I've had my fill of those plodding bums upside. It's time to let these guys ascend, and get in on it rather than watch them blow up on my bench. Not starting with confidence, but I wasn't starting those bum RB's with confidence either. So what's the difference?

 

[hines]

Watched most of the game last night, and I'm not sure how anyone can say definitively that his TD that was reversed should have counted. The camera angles around the backside of the endzone were terrible in this game. He very well could have had his knee come down out of bounds. Which is what the referees reversed the call to.

Also, the reason Allen got the TD that he did was because of a 30 yard TD that Vincent Brown scored was called back a few plays earlier. The LT wasn't close enough to the line of scrimmage so there was an illegal formation penalty called.

I was impressed by Allen in this game. He's a better player than I thought going in. However, Vincent Brown showed he's far more than just a possession guy as well. He got behind coverage for a 51 yard bomb, and easily blew by coverage for the 30 yard TD that was called back. Brown still posted an 8/117 stat line.

I am very much inclined to agree with what the SD homers have been preaching. Gates is the #1 target. Beyond that, Rivers is going to spread it around. This week Brown and Allen shined. Next week it could be Royal again. IMO behind Gates everybody (Allen, Brown, Royal) is a dicey WR4.

dicey WR4 means they are all in the mid-40s in WR rankings. the guys in the ROS rankings there right now are Tavon Austin, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, Chris Givens, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Emmanuel Sanders. I can see an argument for Sanders but any of those other guys I'd cut in a heartbeat for Allen

 

[LawFitz]

dicey WR4 means they are all in the mid-40s in WR rankings. the guys in the ROS rankings there right now are Tavon Austin, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, Chris Givens, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Emmanuel Sanders. I can see an argument for Sanders but any of those other guys I'd cut in a heartbeat for Allen

Edelman has regularly been seeing around 90% of snaps for the Pats and is their starting PR. I'm not saying you shouldn't cut him for Allen, but I can see a strong case for not doing so.

 

[CalBear]

He's a player, and now he has the opportunity. He'll be better than a fantasy WR4 going forward; do you really think there are 36 guys who have a better combination of talent and situation in the NFL right now? Gates/Woodhead limit his upside, but he should be in the top 30 WRs going forward, with possibilities of top 20.

says the gal from cal

Says the person who watched every snap of his college career, yes. And who also watched every snap of Lavelle Hawkins' career, and Marvin Jones, and who is not saying the same things about them. Allen was a man amongst boys at the college level.

 

[hines]

dicey WR4 means they are all in the mid-40s in WR rankings. the guys in the ROS rankings there right now are Tavon Austin, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, Chris Givens, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Emmanuel Sanders. I can see an argument for Sanders but any of those other guys I'd cut in a heartbeat for Allen

Edelman has regularly been seeing around 90% of snaps for the Pats and is their starting PR. I'm not saying you shouldn't cut him for Allen, but I can see a strong case for not doing so.

because Amendola hasn't been playing. Amendola's first week back on a snap count and Edelman gets 2 receptions. I can understand keeping him though due to Amendola's shaky health and his huge PPR upside when Amendola is out. I agree that I shouldn't have lumped him with Floyd, Tate, etc

 

[steveski]

Been holding the #1 waiver spot in one of my leagues all year. Think it's worth blowing it now? I haven't seen any SD games but from what I've been reading this doesn't appear as fluky as the Royal incident that I rightfully decided to pass on.

 

[CalBear]

Been holding the #1 waiver spot in one of my leagues all year. Think it's worth blowing it now? I haven't seen any SD games but from what I've been reading this doesn't appear as fluky as the Royal incident that I rightfully decided to pass on.

Royal is a known mediocre sixth-year receiver. Allen is an unknown rookie with promise. It's unlikely that anything more promising is going to show up for the rest of the year, unless it's an RB injury paving the way for a magical backup.

 

[Otis]

Trying to decide between him and Jeffrey.

I've got both, and this would never strike me as even a remotely difficult decision. Jeffery easily.

 

[thecardiackid]

Trying to decide between him and Jeffrey.

I've got both, and this would never strike me as even a remotely difficult decision. Jeffery easily.

dunno about that, at least this (short) week w/ a ankle issue. otherwise i agree.

 

[jbz]

Watched most of the game last night, and I'm not sure how anyone can say definitively that his TD that was reversed should have counted. The camera angles around the backside of the endzone were terrible in this game. He very well could have had his knee come down out of bounds. Which is what the referees reversed the call to.

Also, the reason Allen got the TD that he did was because of a 30 yard TD that Vincent Brown scored was called back a few plays earlier. The LT wasn't close enough to the line of scrimmage so there was an illegal formation penalty called.

I was impressed by Allen in this game. He's a better player than I thought going in. However, Vincent Brown showed he's far more than just a possession guy as well. He got behind coverage for a 51 yard bomb, and easily blew by coverage for the 30 yard TD that was called back. Brown still posted an 8/117 stat line.

I am very much inclined to agree with what the SD homers have been preaching. Gates is the #1 target. Beyond that, Rivers is going to spread it around. This week Brown and Allen shined. Next week it could be Royal again. IMO behind Gates everybody (Allen, Brown, Royal) is a dicey WR4.

What's good about Brown's performance is that he showed he's not a scrub IMO. That means he can still draw the #1 cover guy on most teams, leaving Allen with a better match up. When Allen did most his damage, he had fellow rookie DJ Hayden on him and he took advantage. He also took advantage of a soft middle on the final drive, but it's not like the Chargers won't be in similar situations moving forward. I think he looked good and earned more confidence from Rivers in the process.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Just look at the Chargers schedule going forward. Many shootouts in the horizon. The defense is just awful. If we want to win, Rivers will keep racking up 400 yard passing days.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

FBG's saying he's a high floor WR2 going forward. Did he look THAT good this last week? I have Miles Austin rotting on my bench and I'm all for taking a shot on this guy if he could be legit...

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Picked him up. PPR: I definitely don't see him as a WR2. I see more as a bye week fill in/WR4 type.

He had a nice final stat line. But he was at 3-45-1 with under 4 to play in comeback mode. Haven't had the chance to re-watch it yet, but I know the 30 yard catch at the end was against prevent.

To me, in a 12 team PPR league, saying he's a WR2 is going a bit overboard.