Hard to believe he's averaging less than 12 ypr for his career. I think he's still fast, maybe Mahomes can lead him to a career year. Or maybe he'll be a highly paid decoy.
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WR Marquise Brown, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sounds like a good excuse to trade Hollywood.Own Rice and Hollywood. Rice with over 100 receptions.
Blick
Footballguy
In terms of rookie picks in a 1 QB league, would you rather have a late 1st (Worthy, Brooks, Benson, Mitchell) or Brown? It would certainly be nice to reset the clock on one of the young guys and Hollywood is only on a one-year deal. But you have to like the situation and potential for a long-term deal after this season.Sounds like a good excuse to trade Hollywood.Own Rice and Hollywood. Rice with over 100 receptions.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Late first but that’s a fair price for a contender. Hollywood isn’t old yetIn terms of rookie picks in a 1 QB league, would you rather have a late 1st (Worthy, Brooks, Benson, Mitchell) or Brown? It would certainly be nice to reset the clock on one of the young guys and Hollywood is only on a one-year deal. But you have to like the situation and potential for a long-term deal after this season.Sounds like a good excuse to trade Hollywood.Own Rice and Hollywood. Rice with over 100 receptions.
Juju was already heading downhill when he hit KC and was basically a big slot. MVS just wasn’t good. Brown way more talented than either of those guys. Great signing for the hated Chiefs IMO.
As far as FF, hard to say, but him being a #2 type WR isn’t out of the question. Kelce is another year older and Rice had basically zero competition from WRs for targets last year once KC figured out he was hands down their best WR.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As a Mahomes shareholder I’m happy they have a legit deep threat again. That offense was concerning me. Hopefully they’re not done.
Marquise Brown has reached 20+ mph on 33 routes since 2020, 2nd-most in the NFL behind former Chief Tyreek Hill.Brown will look to add speed to a Kansas City wide receiver room that reached 20+ mph on a route just 5 times last season, 6th-fewest in the NFL.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Must be trying to trade him
He is indeed still fast, but from their own info-graphic, MVS was #4 at 28 routes. So their assertion that KC was the #6 worst last year is odd. MVS must have lost a lot of his speed as he's gotten older.
Tyreek had the #1 at 73 routes
, more than twice Brown as the #2 guy. Cheetah is just in a class unto himself.I don't think it's odd, I think you answered the why with your next line.
It certainly makes sense (Father time is undefeated), but I'm not convinced this "stat" tells us anything useful considering its an aggregate from the last 4 seasons. If they had given us more recent numbers it might be a better judge of if they are actually upgrading or not. Brown's time in Arizona was plagued with injuries, so I wouldn't be surprised that the bulk of these recorded for him were from 4 years ago. He's never made the top 20 in recorded speeds while MVS had the #2 back in 2021 (Tyreek is a regular on the list every year.)
I think the most important thing is Brown doesn't have stone hands like MVS did. Hopefully that means he will be much more successful trying to replace Tyreek than MVS was. As a Mahomes fantasy owner, I sure hope so.
jtd13
Footballguy
Brown getting 1 year $7m (up to $11m) seems like not a good sign. Kinda feels like a Will Fuller last hurrah in Miami thing (albeit a much better situation than Flores led dolphins). If I can get any 1st I'm selling, but probably holding otherwise in case he does blow up. But him having not much value after this season seems like a distinct possibility.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yes so many focused on how great the landing spot is when the contract might be the canary
Faust
MVP
Jordan Schultz
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was a gold mine of a find. The perfect weapon for Patrick Mahomes and the #Chiefs.
: @SpeakOnFS1 @EmmanuelAcho
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Looking more and more like Rashee Rice is going to be unavailable for the Chiefs in 2024
Brown has a 91/1000/6TD season on his resume.
His floor right now feels like 65/800/5-6TDs on about 5-6 targets a week...I could see more if he's the de facto WR1 even for the first half of the season while Worthy is breaking into the NFL.
75-80/1,000/8TDs seems possible with Mahomes.
Brown has a 91/1000/6TD season on his resume.
His floor right now feels like 65/800/5-6TDs on about 5-6 targets a week...I could see more if he's the de facto WR1 even for the first half of the season while Worthy is breaking into the NFL.
75-80/1,000/8TDs seems possible with Mahomes.
Blick
Footballguy
I know I sometimes get hung up on players that don't deserve it. But I don't understand why Brown's value hasn't risen more. He's proven to be a successful, if not semi-elite at times, NFL WR. He's something KC has not had. With Brown's career average target advantage (7.3 vs 6.4) and much higher ADOT (11.9 vs 4.8), I'd argue he's a better player than Rice. I'm not worried about a rookie. There's room for both and it will take some time for Worthy to catch his stride, if he works out at all.
The only wildcard for me is that he's on a one-year deal. However, if he produces like I think he will, I think he'll be extended or at least earn a long-term contract somewhere else.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I'm with the last 2 posters on this, in that I am in on Hollywood right now an his value seems to be depressed still. He was injured last year and wasn't himself. He's on a 1-year prove it deal and I think it is perfect for him.
I just think of all those deep balls MVS got and Hollywood could slide right into that role. I think long term Worthy could be that guy but we all know KC is in it to win it and Andy is very slow to play his rookie receivers. If Rice is suspended to start the season Hollywood could be the #2 in this offense behind Kelce. There will be lots of opportunity for him while Worthy gets up to speed.
I just think of all those deep balls MVS got and Hollywood could slide right into that role. I think long term Worthy could be that guy but we all know KC is in it to win it and Andy is very slow to play his rookie receivers. If Rice is suspended to start the season Hollywood could be the #2 in this offense behind Kelce. There will be lots of opportunity for him while Worthy gets up to speed.
I think the reason why people (myself included)) aren't higher on Brown is that while his opportunity looks great (especially if Rice is out) his opportunity has been great for most of his career. Its not like he's been stuck in bad offenses his whole career, other than 2023 when Kyler was out, (and Brown got hurt right when Murray came back) and he's mostly underachieved.
I think the idea of Hollywood Brown is better than the actual product (which is similar in some ways to Calvin Ridley, other than Ridley's 2020 season) I see a guy who has become a less effective player every season of his career since his rookie season, and less efficient the more he's been used. He's flirted with some good fantasy numbers for sure, but its never sustained, and unless we want to argue that 3 different coaching staffs were using him wrong, but Andy Reid will unlock him (not impossible, no sure thing) I think he's a guy where he's likely to continue to disappoint, especially if Rice's absence pushes him up draft boards.
I think Rice showed more his rookie season than Brown ever has. That said, as mentioned, they have played very different roles. We don't know if Rice is limited to that, but I think we have enough evidence (5 years) to say Brown likely is. I'm gonna be driving the Kelce bandwagon if Rice out. I think Brown and Worthy likely cannibalize each other, unless I'm way too low on Worthy.
I think the idea of Hollywood Brown is better than the actual product (which is similar in some ways to Calvin Ridley, other than Ridley's 2020 season) I see a guy who has become a less effective player every season of his career since his rookie season, and less efficient the more he's been used. He's flirted with some good fantasy numbers for sure, but its never sustained, and unless we want to argue that 3 different coaching staffs were using him wrong, but Andy Reid will unlock him (not impossible, no sure thing) I think he's a guy where he's likely to continue to disappoint, especially if Rice's absence pushes him up draft boards.
I think Rice showed more his rookie season than Brown ever has. That said, as mentioned, they have played very different roles. We don't know if Rice is limited to that, but I think we have enough evidence (5 years) to say Brown likely is. I'm gonna be driving the Kelce bandwagon if Rice out. I think Brown and Worthy likely cannibalize each other, unless I'm way too low on Worthy.
Blick
Footballguy
I don't put the BAL offense and Lamar anywhere near a great opportunity. Even so, he averaged 4.2 rec, 51 yards, 0.45 TD per game. To put that in perspective, Zay Flowers averaged 4.8 rec, 53.6 yards, 0.31 TD per game in what was arguably a more "passer friendly" BAL system. I know there is three year's difference between them, but Flowers is currently worth about twice as much as Hollywood depending on where you look.
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I did the same thing in my league and no interest. I wonder how interested guys will be once we open up the 2024 season shortly (we have a dead period until June).
I don't think the market has adjusted yet vis a vis Rice being suspended (6 games feels like a lock, if not more) but I also think there is rightful apprehension that even when Rice is suspended, Hollywood is still the #3 option in the passing game, depending on what the individual person thinks of Worthy.
I thought Baltimore and Lamar was a great opportunity in the sense that he was the unquestioned #1 outside WR and was almost never doubled as teams were frequently putting 8 in the box, and having a QB spy. Sure the overall passing volume wasn't great, but the efficiency should have been, and it wasn't. I'm personally not a huge Flowers guy either, though I think he gets a much bigger benefit of the doubt as he was a rookie, and 2023 could be his floor. I have a hard time giving a similar pass to a guy entering his 6th season. Its not like Brown was dealing with Terry McLaurin level QB play.
I've got Flowers as a high-end WR3, and Brown as a low-end WR3. The TE is the #1 on both teams, but there is no Worthy in Baltimore (sorry Bateman believers) so it makes a lot of sense why the two aren't ranked super close, even if its possible they may finish closer. In redraft I'm not expecting to end up with either, in dynasty, I think Flowers is clearly a better prospect due to age, and theoretical upside.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Rice is 6-2/205-210
Hollywood is 5-9/180, very differently built WRs
The yds per catch between the two fo them is similar
Hollywood is not a rip the cover off the defense type, someone said he would run fly patterns like MVS, I don't see it.
I think he will be a reliable set of hands for Mahomes to connect with on 10-12 yd completions and keep the chains moving
100-147, last 2 seasons in Baltimore, number of targets
Just 107 and then last year he was injured and only 101, missed a lot of time with Murray who was recovering from torn up knee ligaments
17 games...Rice managed 79 catches on just a little over 100 targets, maybe Hollywood won't be as efficient but 65-75 catches seems very doable.
Skyy Moore did not hit as a Rookie or last season, Rice took a while. before he was the WR1, seems like Brown should slide in the first month or two fo the season
Could be a surprise Top 20 weekly showing early in the year.
Hollywood is 5-9/180, very differently built WRs
The yds per catch between the two fo them is similar
Hollywood is not a rip the cover off the defense type, someone said he would run fly patterns like MVS, I don't see it.
I think he will be a reliable set of hands for Mahomes to connect with on 10-12 yd completions and keep the chains moving
100-147, last 2 seasons in Baltimore, number of targets
Just 107 and then last year he was injured and only 101, missed a lot of time with Murray who was recovering from torn up knee ligaments
17 games...Rice managed 79 catches on just a little over 100 targets, maybe Hollywood won't be as efficient but 65-75 catches seems very doable.
Skyy Moore did not hit as a Rookie or last season, Rice took a while. before he was the WR1, seems like Brown should slide in the first month or two fo the season
Could be a surprise Top 20 weekly showing early in the year.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
But he should be. He has that rare 5th gear, or he used to.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I hear you CIA but his yds per catch is 10-12, 11-13...I'm just saying he hasn't logged a season so far where he eclipses 14-15 yds a catch
I don't think he will be asked to do that for KC either. I do think he will be a fairly reliable WR for Mahomes to try and target
He could evolve and perhaps connect on more down the field type throws, but his bread and butter thus far hasn't been that
