WR Marvin Mims, DEN (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

It seems like he really took a step forward and had a bit of a mini-breakout the last half of the season. 6 TD in the last 7 games. 33 targets 28 catches 434 yards and I'm not going to extrapolate but I do think there is an inflection point in his career arc and he is on the positive side of it now.

*Just* turned 23.

He did get shut down in the playoff loss to Buffalo in the week following that split and only had 2 catches on 4 targets and I didn't include that. But the rookie Bryant would seem to be more of a threat to Sutton IDK. Mims would seem to be a surefire #2WR on an ascending offense at the moment and as a result IMHO Mims is criminally undervalued in redraft and BB in particular. Dynasty I'm not going to say I believe long term but 2025 might be special, or at least relative to the cost. Could finish as a low WR2.

 

[Stoneworker]

It seems like he really took a step forward and had a bit of a mini-breakout the last half of the season. 6 TD in the last 7 games. 33 targets 28 catches 434 yards and I'm not going to extrapolate but I do think there is an inflection point in his career arc and he is on the positive side of it now.

*Just* turned 23.

He did get shut down in the playoff loss to Buffalo in the week following that split and only had 2 catches on 4 targets and I didn't include that. But the rookie Bryant would seem to be more of a threat to Sutton IDK. Mims would seem to be a surefire #2WR on an ascending offense at the moment and as a result IMHO Mims is criminally undervalued in redraft and BB in particular. Dynasty I'm not going to say I believe long term but 2025 might be special, or at least relative to the cost. Could finish as a low WR2.

I don't think the last half of the season was an aberration. Payton consciously began getting creative with getting the ball to Mims in space so I'd look for that to continue. He even lined up in the backfield as the sole halfback on multiple occasions.

 

[Jppaul]

rookie Bryant would seem to be more of a threat to Sutton IDK. Mims would seem to be a surefire #2WR

I feel like all three do slightly different stuff and compliment each other well. But yeah, Bryant behind Sutton and Mims ahead of Franklin?

 

[barackdhouse]

rookie Bryant would seem to be more of a threat to Sutton IDK. Mims would seem to be a surefire #2WR

I feel like all three do slightly different stuff and compliment each other well. But yeah, Bryant behind Sutton and Mims ahead of Franklin?

Yeah something like that. Franklin might be a steal as well. If Engram can be Engram and if Harvey is as advertised, then the #2 WR ought to be valuable. My guess is Franklin plays the #3 more often than the rookie but I feel like Mims is the one to target here if looking for the best value.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It seems like he really took a step forward and had a bit of a mini-breakout the last half of the season. 6 TD in the last 7 games. 33 targets 28 catches 434 yards and I'm not going to extrapolate but I do think there is an inflection point in his career arc and he is on the positive side of it now.

*Just* turned 23.

He did get shut down in the playoff loss to Buffalo in the week following that split and only had 2 catches on 4 targets and I didn't include that. But the rookie Bryant would seem to be more of a threat to Sutton IDK. Mims would seem to be a surefire #2WR on an ascending offense at the moment and as a result IMHO Mims is criminally undervalued in redraft and BB in particular. Dynasty I'm not going to say I believe long term but 2025 might be special, or at least relative to the cost. Could finish as a low WR2.

He's a great buy at his current value. Not getting nearly as much hype as he should be given how he finished the season.

I think people still struggle from a subconscious size bias. If Adonai Mitchell had finished the season the way that Mims did, people would be all over him.

 

[-OZ-]

What are everyone's thoughts on Mims? What do you think drafting Bryant means for him, if anything?

I have him in one league as a flyer, WR6. I hope to never have to start him. But he’s a best ball special or to start during bye weeks or in desperation mode.

IMO he’s far more valuable to his team than in FF.

 

[Raging weasel]

He was a cut in one of my FFPC leagues and went 2.12 WR 11

 

[barackdhouse]

He was a cut in one of my FFPC leagues and went 2.12 WR 11

he was cut in a few of mine... has gone 3.04, 4.02 (me), and is still available in the 4th round of another.These are all SF or TriFlex

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I remember getting a young Tyler Lockett in the 4th round of my FFPC drafts in his 3rd or 4th year off a 45-555-2 season where he showed some flashes and this feels a lot like that.

 

[LawFitz]

Mims got a ton of hype coming into the league after posting uber-elite ball tracking and catch metrics in college. He's for sure a post-hype sleeper right now going into his 3rd year. I remember when that was a thing in terms of WR breakout years back in the day.

 

[Black and Gold]

Amazing the lack of talk about this guy. Final 8 weeks of the regular season, he was a top 25 WR in his rookie season.
Not to mention his explosive game against Cincinnati in the playoffs.
He's being talked about as a maybe 4, probably 5 WR for this season.
Paired with Payton's upcoming offense with an exciting young QB, I love his potential for 2025 AND long term.

 

[cdclopper]

Amazing the lack of talk about this guy. Final 8 weeks of the regular season, he was a top 25 WR in his rookie season.
Not to mention his explosive game against Cincinnati in the playoffs.
He's being talked about as a maybe 4, probably 5 WR for this season.
Paired with Payton's upcoming offense with an exciting young QB, I love his potential for 2025 AND long term.

Is he one who feasted on manufactured touches tho. Those fleeting opportunities which come and go so quickly, like it didn't even happen. What will happen when they have a much more talented pure runner on the team. Who would you rather have catching a screen pass or on a jet sweep, RJ Harvey or Marvin Mims?

 

[Black and Gold]

Amazing the lack of talk about this guy. Final 8 weeks of the regular season, he was a top 25 WR in his rookie season.
Not to mention his explosive game against Cincinnati in the playoffs.
He's being talked about as a maybe 4, probably 5 WR for this season.
Paired with Payton's upcoming offense with an exciting young QB, I love his potential for 2025 AND long term.

Is he one who feasted on manufactured touches tho. Those fleeting opportunities which come and go so quickly, like it didn't even happen. What will happen when they have a much more talented pure runner on the team. Who would you rather have catching a screen pass or on a jet sweep, RJ Harvey or Marvin Mims?

Any time I watched him, he looked like the real deal. He reminded me a lot of early career Antonio Brown. I'm certainly not going to value a rookie RB over him that seems to be drafted earlier than he should have.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Amazing the lack of talk about this guy. Final 8 weeks of the regular season, he was a top 25 WR in his rookie season.
Not to mention his explosive game against Cincinnati in the playoffs.
He's being talked about as a maybe 4, probably 5 WR for this season.
Paired with Payton's upcoming offense with an exciting young QB, I love his potential for 2025 AND long term.

Is he one who feasted on manufactured touches tho. Those fleeting opportunities which come and go so quickly, like it didn't even happen. What will happen when they have a much more talented pure runner on the team. Who would you rather have catching a screen pass or on a jet sweep, RJ Harvey or Marvin Mims?

I was very high on Mims this offseason, and still am based on his low cost to acquire, but yes this did temper things for me a bit.

He actually had 477 yards after catch. He only had 503 total receiving yards.

He had three catches that were caught 45, 25, and 50 yards downfield.

That means on his other 36 catches he caught them, on average, 3 yards behind the LoS.

I think roughly 80-90% of his catches were screens, jet sweeps, etc.

 

[cdclopper]

Amazing the lack of talk about this guy. Final 8 weeks of the regular season, he was a top 25 WR in his rookie season.
Not to mention his explosive game against Cincinnati in the playoffs.
He's being talked about as a maybe 4, probably 5 WR for this season.
Paired with Payton's upcoming offense with an exciting young QB, I love his potential for 2025 AND long term.

Is he one who feasted on manufactured touches tho. Those fleeting opportunities which come and go so quickly, like it didn't even happen. What will happen when they have a much more talented pure runner on the team. Who would you rather have catching a screen pass or on a jet sweep, RJ Harvey or Marvin Mims?

I was very high on Mims this offseason, and still am based on his low cost to acquire, but yes this did temper things for me a bit.

He actually had 477 yards after catch. He only had 503 total receiving yards.

He had three catches that were caught 45, 25, and 50 yards downfield.

That means on his other 36 catches he caught them, on average, 3 yards behind the LoS.

I think roughly 80-90% of his catches were screens, jet sweeps, etc.

These numbers are outrageous. The wing back in my highschool offense caught more yardage down field than Mims.

 

[Black and Gold]

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These 2 plays alone make me believe he's more than a "wing-back".

 

[FreeBaGeL]

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These 2 plays alone make me believe he's more than a "wing-back".

Yeah I get it but it's crazy to consider those two plays may represent almost half of his catches beyond the LoS all of last year. We can pick out two plays where Tim Tebow looked like Peyton Manning.

Like I said, I love Mims value for the price but it definitely gave me some perspective. Just looking at the numbers and his cost I was buying him everywhere. I'm a little more cautious now.

 

[Black and Gold]

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These 2 plays alone make me believe he's more than a "wing-back".

Yeah I get it but it's crazy to consider those two plays may represent almost half of his catches beyond the LoS all of last year. We can pick out two plays where Tim Tebow looked like Peyton Manning.

Like I said, I love Mims value for the price but it definitely gave me some perspective. Just looking at the numbers and his cost I was buying him everywhere. I'm a little more cautious now.

Agreed, but it's not like he didn't have draft status. He was Denver's 2nd round pick last season.
He just seemed to get more involved in the offense as the year progressed.
It just seems odd for what he did at the end of last season compared to his price to acquire.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I like Marvin. I am a Marvin Mims fan.

I think if someone is a believer, right now is a perfect time to make a move to acquire.

 

[Mongidig]

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These 2 plays alone make me believe he's more than a "wing-back".

Don’t forget this one. Maybe the best QB throw of the year.

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[-OZ-]

Don’t forget this one. Maybe the best QB throw of the year.

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Possibly the best pass, reception, and TD of the year. Just perfect.

I won’t claim to be a fan of the broncos but I made it a priority to acquire Nix in my SF league. Conveniently, Mims is also on the squad but I don’t plan on starting him.

 

[Bri]

What are everyone's thoughts on Mims? What do you think drafting Bryant means for him, if anything?

We always draft rookies expecting big production when they really have a learning curve.
A few always light up the league right away and are exceptions to the rules- not the norm.
He was an excellent college player. He wasn't "just fast" like some OU receivers before him and he didn't try too hard to replace CeeDee. He was very much himself and that was very cool to see. Very mature. There was a quote by him once- He's only trying to work as hard as CeeDee did. Whatever benefits come from that he'll be happy to get but that's the only comparison he's doing.
He was bombarded with Qs constantly and generally didn't reply but if he did, he'd say something like "just work hard" and OMG did I love this kid.

He talks to CeeDee regularly. I haven't seen it this year but haven't been looking for it. They work out together sometimes and there's a big brother mentor vibe there. (Sidenote the Broncos should worry of the Cowboys if he's ever a free agent)

Jerry Jeudy is a bust he'll never...wait a sec. Cedric Tillman is a bust, he'll never...hold on

For this comparison, you've gotta dwell on Bryant's ability to make an immediate impact and if that is going to be one of the rare occurrences of it happening.
Mims went from like 20 catches to 40 and with him putting the work in and nice coach quotes, I'm way more comfortable with him taking the next step than a rookie defying odds and being great day one.

Many FF sites disagree with me and Bryant is their hidden gem where it's at the point that's like umm it's not a secret or a sleeper if you keep saying it.

For me, I'm numbers based and I can see progression and I'm comfy with Mims.

I expect by August I might not want a part of either of them.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Fun with small sample sizes and a tale of two halves:

Weeks 1-9
17 targets/ 1.88 per game
7 catches/ 0.8 per game
56 yards/ 6.2 per game
0 TDs
1 rush for 17 yards/ 1.88 per game

Weeks 10-18
37 targets (4.625 per game)
32 catches/ 4 per game
447 yards/ 55.8 per game
6 TDs/ 0.75 per game
12 rushes for 25 yards/ (1.3 carries per game/ 2.5 yards per carry)

His second half points per game:
Yards 5.9
Catches 4.0 (2.0 half ppr)
TDs 4.5
Standard 10.4/ half 12.4/ full ppr 14.4

The bizarre snap rate stuff is troubling for sure:
Weeks 1-9 109/587 18.6% snap share
Weeks 10-18 192/557 34.5% snap share

So we have to wonder and given that he's "Still only 23 years old" can he emerge as a more consistent threat in terms of a lineup worthy asset for FF? Seems like he really could be a post hype sleeper. Sean Payton seems bound and determined to drive all of us bananas. But from his perspective, I imagine he's trying to teach something or sees enough other upside or play options with involving 29 year old Sutton on every play and mixing in Lil'Jordan Humphrey/ Vele, Franklin and now Bryant. I see a ton of upside here with Mims.

 

[cdclopper]

Fun with small sample sizes and a tale of two halves:

Weeks 1-9
17 targets/ 1.88 per game
7 catches/ 0.8 per game
56 yards/ 6.2 per game
0 TDs
1 rush for 17 yards/ 1.88 per game

Weeks 10-18
37 targets (4.625 per game)
32 catches/ 4 per game
447 yards/ 55.8 per game
6 TDs/ 0.75 per game
12 rushes for 25 yards/ (1.3 carries per game/ 2.5 yards per carry)

His second half points per game:
Yards 5.9
Catches 4.0 (2.0 half ppr)
TDs 4.5
Standard 10.4/ half 12.4/ full ppr 14.4

The bizarre snap rate stuff is troubling for sure:
Weeks 1-9 109/587 18.6% snap share
Weeks 10-18 192/557 34.5% snap share

So we have to wonder and given that he's "Still only 23 years old" can he emerge as a more consistent threat in terms of a lineup worthy asset for FF? Seems like he really could be a post hype sleeper. Sean Payton seems bound and determined to drive all of us bananas. But from his perspective, I imagine he's trying to teach something or sees enough other upside or play options with involving 29 year old Sutton on every play and mixing in Lil'Jordan Humphrey/ Vele, Franklin and now Bryant. I see a ton of upside here with Mims.

Probably something to do with Nix development and therein evolution of the offense. Or perhaps Mims development (or lack thereof). Of course its concerning for Mims that 90% of his catches were somewhere near the LOS. Did it take Payton so long to figure out thats all he's good for?