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WR N'Keal Harry - CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
steelers1080
Footballguy
I think he goes at the top of the 2nd if the draft was tomorrow, we'll see how things shift by late April. I'm hoping that he lasts to pick 52, but I have a hard time believing he will.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Tweet Matt Miller to fix it, he just keeps using the same outdated/incorrect spreadsheet it seems
barackdhouse
Footballguy
+2
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It isn't just him as again evidenced by Josh Norris. It makes me question all of these guys other comments when they can't even get a player's height right.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
lazy social media copy paste reporting. I'm not real surprised tbh. no one fact checks anything anymore
Ilov80s
Footballguy
N'Keal seems like an afterthought with so many in the draft community which just surprises me given his profile. His profile suggests Julio Jones or AJ Green but I just saw another draft expert put him at WR 10 for the class.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
No, it doesn't.
He's a fine prospect and may turn out to be a probowl player, but he is not close to the level of prospect those two or, say, Calvin Johnson were. That's not an opinion, just a fact.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Nobody is Calvin but Harry is up there with there with Julio and AJ Green IMO. Elite breakout age, elite college dominator, elite size, rare combination of size/speed, had one of the best in class 3 cone drills at his pro day, as physically strong as they come, power 5 conferences, young. The only flaws are more subjective things like doesn't separate well or inconsistent routes or feet aren't quick enough. Don't forget people had issues with Julio and AJ too. Some said Julio had inconsistent hands and was a poor route runner. They said AJ struggled to get separation against quick defenders due a lack of suddenness and that AJ might not be strong enough to deal with physical defenders. Objectively, N'Keal Harry is near the top cluster of NFL WR prospects.
Also lets be clear, you saying Harry isn't close to Julio or AJ is the definition of an opinion. What facts do you have to support it?
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It all of the above were true, then Harry would be projected as a near concensus top 10 NFL draft selection like Julio and AJG were. Or even discussed as a potential early 1st round wideout. The fact that he’s not even remotely being considered in that realm should put the Harry vs Julio/AJG as an elite prospect comparison to bed IMO. That’s not to say that Harry can’t have that type of career, but I don’t believe he’d be consistently projected as a late 1st to mid 2nd pick if that were the case.
elshagon
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is fair and I do realize how bold of a statement it is that I am making.He might end up going a lot higher than people think. Look at where John Ross and Mike Williams went. Nobody saw that coming. I do think WRs this year have a depressed draft ranking because of how many 1st round WRs have busted recently and because this class is so deep at WR that many teams will feel they can wait and still get a good WR.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
mock drafts are worthless I thoughtSayWhat? said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Listening to some things while I workout that were interesting:
Someone have AJ Brown a positive bump because of the versatility he showed playing in the slot and outside. They then knocked Harry because he might not be a pure outside WR because he worked from the slot a lot. Huh? Someone else said AJ is the only WR to really check all the breakout and dominator ratings- then he corrected himself and said Harry sort of did. Harry is the breakout-dominator darling of the class.
The big knock is obviously a lack of separation. Is that something that is relevant for the NFL? I looked at next gen stats from last year at average separation. Some of the top 10 guys were Engram, Hogan, Chester Rogers, Krupp, Gabriel and Sammy Watkins. Kupp is the highlight of the group. The bottom 10 have busts but also a much stronger sample: AJ Green, Mike Evans, Josh Gordon.I know a lot this has to do with coverage schemes but I do wonder if big string fast jump ball WRs like Green or Evans or Harry really need separation. Ecen Julio, Hopkins and Hilton were close to the bottom.
Someone have AJ Brown a positive bump because of the versatility he showed playing in the slot and outside. They then knocked Harry because he might not be a pure outside WR because he worked from the slot a lot. Huh? Someone else said AJ is the only WR to really check all the breakout and dominator ratings- then he corrected himself and said Harry sort of did. Harry is the breakout-dominator darling of the class.
The big knock is obviously a lack of separation. Is that something that is relevant for the NFL? I looked at next gen stats from last year at average separation. Some of the top 10 guys were Engram, Hogan, Chester Rogers, Krupp, Gabriel and Sammy Watkins. Kupp is the highlight of the group. The bottom 10 have busts but also a much stronger sample: AJ Green, Mike Evans, Josh Gordon.I know a lot this has to do with coverage schemes but I do wonder if big string fast jump ball WRs like Green or Evans or Harry really need separation. Ecen Julio, Hopkins and Hilton were close to the bottom.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
They are.
You guys grade him however you like, but here is a better picture of how he's viewed as a prospect:
AJ Green: 8.65
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/a.j.-green?id=2495450
Julio Jones: 8.48
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/julio-jones?id=2495454
N'Keal Harry: 5.87
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/n'keal-harry?id=32194841-5265-4593-d716-d972ec2d4468
He's just not on that level. Sorry, he's not. He may turn out to be taken top 10 and become a fantastic player, who knows, but he's just not that kind of slam dunk, can't miss, superstar prospect.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
none of those are NFL GMs... they're as useless as mock drafts lol
penny was considered a 2nd or 3rd round pick by these expert analysts last year...
I'll wait until the draft.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
JuJu Smith Schuster: 5.86
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/juju-smith-schuster?id=2558149
yeah... these are never wrong
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Michael Thomas: 5.81
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
Odell Beckham Jr: 5.9
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/odell-beckham?id=2543496
Davante Adam's: 5.96
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/davante-adams?id=2543495
Harry doesnt stand a chance at being relevant
funny... of the top 5 wrs on the dynasty value chart for April from Hinderly, 4 dont rate above a 6.0 on their draft profile, and one doesnt have a comparable rating
great track record
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
Odell Beckham Jr: 5.9
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/odell-beckham?id=2543496
Davante Adam's: 5.96
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/davante-adams?id=2543495
Harry doesnt stand a chance at being relevant
funny... of the top 5 wrs on the dynasty value chart for April from Hinderly, 4 dont rate above a 6.0 on their draft profile, and one doesnt have a comparable rating
great track record
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skinfanjon
Footballguy
Why are you being so dense? ITS AN EVALUATION OF HIM AS A PROSPECT. It does not fortell how he will perform at the next level. There are guys who outperform their grades all the freaking time. I've said at least 5 times in this thread he could become a pro bowler on the right team. That is something else entirely than labeling him a Julio level prospect.
Waiting until the draft does nothing to change what he is AS A PROSPECT. It didn't change John Ross, didn't change Corey Davis, or anyone else you want to name. Him going top 5would.not.make.him.an.elite.prospect.in.historical.context.
That book is closed. Can he outperform his evaluations? ABSOLUTELY. He could be a pro bowler. He could be an all pro. It doesn't change how he stacks up AS A PROSPECT to some of the very best wide receiver prospects of all time.
Why? Because they are super duper rare and only come along every handful of years. Julio and AJ just happened to be in the same draft. If he was one of those guys, there really wouldn't be many, if any, vocal detractors. Why? Because when one comes along, it's OBVIOUS. Everyone knows it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
hinderlys wr1s:
Hopkins: NA
obj: 5.9
JuJu: 5.86
thomas: 5.81
adams: 5.96
Mike evans: 6.15
Cooper: 7.13
Jones: 8.48
Diggs: 5.5
Allen: NA
Brown: NA
Cooks : 5.85
you brought up this metric as a way to make your point that he is not a good prospect. I am showing it doesnt matter at all, and it's as useful as a mock draft
Hopkins: NA
obj: 5.9
JuJu: 5.86
thomas: 5.81
adams: 5.96
Mike evans: 6.15
Cooper: 7.13
Jones: 8.48
Diggs: 5.5
Allen: NA
Brown: NA
Cooks : 5.85
you brought up this metric as a way to make your point that he is not a good prospect. I am showing it doesnt matter at all, and it's as useful as a mock draft
skinfanjon
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
The PFF draft guide has Harry with 130 routes from the slot this year. If we assume that his other routes were all out wide (which is probably at least close to true), then his stats break down into:
Wide: 51/689/6 on 84 targets & 272 routes, 8.2 YPT, 2.53 yards per route run
Slot: 22/399/3 on 29 targets & 130 routes, 13.8 YPT, 3.07 yards per route run
So significantly better production from the slot than out wide.
I posted the breakdown for AJ Brown in his thread:
AJ Wide: 25/507/1 on 39 targets & 180 routes, 13.0 YPT, 2.82 yards per route run
AJ Slot: 59/800/5 on 76 targets & 254 routes, 10.5 YPT, 3.15 yards per route run
So AJ Brown was similarly good from both spots, with higher YPT out wide and more usage & TDs from the slot.
Wide: 51/689/6 on 84 targets & 272 routes, 8.2 YPT, 2.53 yards per route run
Slot: 22/399/3 on 29 targets & 130 routes, 13.8 YPT, 3.07 yards per route run
So significantly better production from the slot than out wide.
I posted the breakdown for AJ Brown in his thread:
AJ Wide: 25/507/1 on 39 targets & 180 routes, 13.0 YPT, 2.82 yards per route run
AJ Slot: 59/800/5 on 76 targets & 254 routes, 10.5 YPT, 3.15 yards per route run
So AJ Brown was similarly good from both spots, with higher YPT out wide and more usage & TDs from the slot.
If you talking about the rotoworld blurb your comment is not accurate, that's all on rotoworld.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Awesome, thanks for sharing. I could see Harry being great as a big slot. My only comment there would be 29 and 39 targets that really isn't a big enough sample size to draw real conclusions. All it would take is for Harry to break 1 of those slot plays for a long TD to wildly skew that average.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
this post from Faust puts Harry back on my radar for GB. Very possible if they are moving Adams to slot. They would need an X WR to take Adams' place.
Maybe MVS can do it. Allison sure can't. I'm probably overreacting but I think moving Adams puts GB on the radar for WRs such as Harry, Metcalf, Butler, maybe even JJAW
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That might be reading a bit more into it. My take is that the new offense isn't as stale as McCarthy and will actually move their best receiver around the formation from time to time.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Exactly. They're not turning Adams into a slot receiver exclusively. They are going to move him around and try to exploit matchups.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Right, but in the past Adams has strictly been an X guy, which is why I said (back at the time Gandalf and clopp said GB was an option ) that GB likely wouldn't be an option. I was completely off the idea of GB taking a X receiver because Adams was used exclusively as an X. I had them pegged to take a slot guy like Brown, Brown, Isabella.
I think this opens up all kinds of options for GB early in the draft. If they are moving WRs around it means all positions at the wr level may he more fair game in the draft than they were if Adams only played outside
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think a 2nd round WR or TE makes sense for GB. The 3 guys they got last year were what 5th and 6th round picks. They have Rodgers and should probably try to maximize the end of his career by getting some real difference makers.
You have a pretty different definition of success than I do. None of those guys played well last year. Hell, Moore barely even played at all.
Adams is the only valuable WR on the team at the moment. I don't think it would be a bad idea to spend a 1st(likely the #30) and their 2nd at WR. That said, Harry wouldn't be the guy I'd want for them. Hollywood Brown(and/or Isabella, but I don't assume the NFL likes him as much as I do) makes more sense as a guy to open up space, which they haven't had for years.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
100% agree on the bolded. None of the WRs last year except for Adams had Rodgers' confidence and none of them but Adams played well. There is a reason Adams had so many targets. The 2nd year guys would need to take a big step to justify not taking a WR this draft in the first 2 rounds.
I don't agree on the un-bolded... but that's fine. I would like Isabella but I worry Marquis is too small. They do need a speed guy. Jordy was big and fast. Adams is sort of like Harry in a way. I think it would be a good destination for Harry for obvious reasons, but maybe not best for GB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Guys taken that late in drafts rarely amount to much. Plus Green Bay was super aggressive in FA and have 10 draft picks. They can afford to target a premier pass catcher.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
exactly. Their biggest issue was defense which they helped a lot. IMHO their biggest areas of need now are (in no order) wide receiver, linebacker, offensive line.
Not to mention having. a luxury 1st rounder at the end of the draft helps.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not really no. I mostly see guys who use their size, coordination, great hands and positioning to make tough catches on the boundary and in the middle of the field. Nuk is the posterboy for a relatively below average athlete being a great WR. Mike Evans is another guy who isn't very explosive and doesn't create separation who has been very successful.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Well, you're entitled to that opinion, but I couldn't disagree more. Nuk and Evans leap off the screen to me.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
They leap off the screen to me too but not because they are explosive or fast. Same with Harry, I watched his games or look at his highlights and I see a guy who clearly stands out as special.
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