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WR N'Keal Harry - CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Gandalf
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I was surprised looking at separation in next gen stays. There does not seem to be any correlation between separation and nfl fantasy success. Many of the best like Evans and AJ Green are among the worst at separation.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I think that’s because it’s very hard to separate from NFL defensive backs. You need to be able to win beyond that.
ZWK
Footballguy
Next Gen Stats isn't exactly telling us how good a receiver is at getting separation. It tells us the average separation at the time the ball arrived on plays where the receiver was targeted. Partly that depends on how willing the QB is to throw to that receiver in tight coverage. It also depends on the routes and type of coverage - it's easier to get a lot of separation on dumpoffs underneath the zone than on routes down the field along the boundary against man. And it depends on how good the QB is at not giving defenders a chance to close.
Reception Perception is the best source that I know of for tracking which receivers get separation most reliably, since it looks at every route (though it only rates each route as a "yes" or "no" at getting separation rather than looking at the amount of separation). It rated Evans and AJ Green as above average (though not spectacular) at getting separation in 2017. (2018 data aren't out yet.)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I heard a few interesting stats from Rich Hribar on Harry
- Despite all the talk of him being a slot guy, 85% of his snaps (or receptions, forget which) came from the outside in his career
- Had more plays over 20 yards than Hollywood Brown
- During one stretch of film, Harry had 9 consecutive catches that came from 9 different routes and 5 different pre-snap alignments
Hribar thinks all the measurable data points to Harry being a very rare WR prospect
- Despite all the talk of him being a slot guy, 85% of his snaps (or receptions, forget which) came from the outside in his career
- Had more plays over 20 yards than Hollywood Brown
- During one stretch of film, Harry had 9 consecutive catches that came from 9 different routes and 5 different pre-snap alignments
Hribar thinks all the measurable data points to Harry being a very rare WR prospect
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right which made me wonder if criticism of Harry's college separation is overblown when he has shown he can win contested catches.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I think it is completely overblown. He has great production unlike a lot of busts we have seen in the past. Also he runs all sorts of routes. He wins all over the field.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
One of my favorites. Matt's a character but I enjoy his schtick and despite all his antics, he has thoughtful analysis. He also gets great guests and gets them to go really deep on players, trends, strategy, etc. Plus I like that he is willing to take a stance on players. So many fantasy podcasts seem scared to have a take and be wrong so they end up just liking every player which isn't super useful.Zyphros said:Well we listen to the same podcast
matuski
Footballguy
Like posting up in basketball, if you are bigger and stronger and jump higher you almost want contact... you want to know where the defender is.
Zyphros
Footballguy
For what it's worth, he was extremely unimpressive to me when he was on NFL network with Mooch talking about being pressed. He didn't seem to answer anything straight up and just repeat his answer. Maybe someone else came away with a different impression. I want to not like him, but I can't.
Here's the video of that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW6SkHQCAGA
Here's the video of that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW6SkHQCAGA
matuski
Footballguy
All I see is a kid uncomfortable and nervous on TV. This is very different than the catastrophe of an interview Murray did on Patrick.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I wouldn’t put much stock in how a 21 year old college football interviews on a major TV Network. It's not a great sign but I wouldn't change my opinion over it. I heard Brian Burns interviewed on a podcast and was articulate and impressive. I heard Kelvin Harmon recently and he didn't have anything meaningful to say. It's impressive to hear someone interview well and explain their process but it is not essential to me.
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This. And I was expecting something catastrophic. My take after watching was nowhere near that.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Seriously not trying to pick a fight but....
If that's what you saw it's what you wanted/expected to see. I saw a polite, well-spoken young man who was just discussing the basics. Which is likely what he was told to do.
He's not going to give a clinic in a fluff piece segment.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah he was polite, talked about his family, etc. There is nothing that sets off any bells for me there. I had never heard him talk before so if anything it makes me feel good that he seems like a grounded guy who is excited to be with his family.
Zyphros
Footballguy
No fight picked. Definitely well spoken and polite, and seemed to present himself well, I just thought he repeated answers to different questions, but I guess I'm alone in that thought.
TartanLion
Footballguy
I’m also an avid listener to this podcast and the weekly dynasty one he does with the angry Jew. I don’t mind the schtick it’s different to what anyone else does and is a vessel that Kelley uses to put forth strong takes on players. As you say he has good guests as well and they always seem to enjoy the chance to shoot the #### in a more free and open fashion. Respect the work and views he forms from analytics as well
Ilov80s
Footballguy
LOL Nate's twitter handle is AnOutragedJew but if someone didn't know what you were referring to that sure could sound bad. LOL
cloppbeast
Footballguy
If anything, harry's similar to 34 year old fitz. He entered the league a lot more athletic than he is now and a lot more athletic than Harry.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
What do you base this assessment on... Eye test?
Their measurables suggest otherwise:
The only notable difference is 3-Cone, which does support your take. But everywhere else, Harry is Larry's physical match - perhaps stronger.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Based on memory. I dont recall fitz having any questions about seperating. Maybe the 3 cone then.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Nah, they said the same about Fitz. They said he wasn't athletic enough to be a stud WR1 (and is some ways they were right), but they didn't properly account for his elite play-making ability to make up the difference... Pretty much exactly the same as they're doing now with N'Keal, except Fitz was still regarded as the top WR prospect of his class. Worst case, Harry's another Crabtree (on the field), but I think he's more in line with Larry Fizzo. Hopefully he goes to a team capable of utilizing his talents properly, so we can make an honest re-assessment of this in the years to come.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I posted it somewhere here but Harry did the 3 cone at his pro day and put up a top 5 in the class number
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Separation is overrated. Many of the best WRs in the league are towards the bottom in separation.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Huh? Fitz was a top 3 pick in a good draft. I followed the draft closely and don't remember hearing these concerns. Larry was considered a blue-chip prospect.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The top guys are trusted to make plays in traffic, so they see more contested balls, lowering their separation numbers. Separation itself, not the stat, is vital.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That’s true, it’s not a perfect stat. Don’t you think the same is true in college? The best WRs get the attention of the best corners and get the most targets their way despite tough coverage.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Certainly. And Harry has high-end ball skills, so he doesn't need a ton of space to make catches. I do think he could have trouble getting away from good man corners, though.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's one profile and the video starts with Dan saying they had a hard time finding negatives for him.
Larry was considered a blue-chipper. Harry isn't close to the prospect that Larry was.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Finding profiles from 2004 isn't easy. Larry has been one of my favorite players since he came into the league. My username is molded after him. I remember exactly what they said about him coming out, as the Raiders had the #2 pick and I was clamoring for them to take him (they took Robert Girlery instead). They said Fitz had elite body control, size, hands and character, but 2nd tier speed and athleticism. Pretty much exactly what they are saying about Harry now, which is why it rings bells for me.
We'll see eventually if Harry is like Larry (or not). I consider that his upside. Worst case, I see him as a better version of Crabtree. All three have similar player traits, but Larry is of course the gold standard. What separated him from Crabtree more than anything else was character IMO. One guy is a 10, the other a 3. Not exactly sure where Harry falls on that spectrum, but he comes across as fairly grounded and humble, very unlike King Crab.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I guess you can argue that they shared some of the same general questions, but identifying negatives for Larry was nitpicking in a way that it's not for N'Keal.
I like Harry, I just don't think he's anywhere close to Fitz as a prospect.
Edit: And you're right about it being difficult to track down his scouting reports. I feel especially old now - thanks! I still remember losing my #### when the Cowboys traded back with Stephen Jackson on the board that year.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I remmber literally throwing my shoe at the TV when the Fins took Jamar Fletcher when Drew Brees was on the board.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Great pick by New England. The only thing I dont like is his long term appeal with that entire team getting old.
But, he is obviously in the 1.1 conversation fairly easily
But, he is obviously in the 1.1 conversation fairly easily
Interseptopus
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Welp, landed as well as can be. Probably the safest pick in dynasty this year. Gotta be him and Jacobs at the top.
Really bad year to have a super high pick.
Really bad year to have a super high pick.
