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WR T.Y. Hilton, DAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cusefan115
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Shutout
Footballguy
We know the ability is there. As much as I would like it to be so, it is hard from me to envision him as an elite FF guy because I can't see him as that ppr target-hog. But his big play ability is so good and the Colts have other players you have to account for so I CAN see him having a DJAX or Steve SMith (when he was consistently good) type of impact. Yeah, you will have some inconsistency, but you also get those big big games where he wins you a week (like the Texans game last year).
Hoss Style
Footballguy
I'd take Steve Smith best-years type production any day. People forget that he dominated the league at one point. No one could stop him.
Also, I didn't see TY's game today, but was told he looked pretty good when he was in - good route running, got separation easy going against first string DBs. Any insights from someone that watched?
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Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, That's what I was meaning with the Smith comparison; that he could be dominating AT TIMES, but because of the system, he's not like SMith where he was the only game in town and there may be inconsistencies.
Yeah, he made it look easy last night but the thing to remember is he was playing Wayne's spot which is a ton of short crosses and going across and finding that chain moving spot. With Hilton's speed, he was able to make a lot of it because he could literally run away from guys as he crossed.
I think what this shows us going forward is Wayne is going to be a target monster but won't be able to make 9 yard plays into 21 yard plays and it shows us Hilton has a good grasp of all the spots and that's great because he probably won't come off the field this year.
One of the most undervalued players in all formats.
WR1 this year, consistency worries are unwarranted
Edit*
The primary risk involved with Hilton last year was consistency. Pep was insistent on starting DHB across from Wayne and as a result Hilton only played ~60% of snaps early in the season. Injuries to Wayne and Allen, ineffectiveness of DHB and every receiver not named Wayne, and the fact that Hilton produced while in the game eventually led to more opportunities. It was obvious that Hilton was the best playmaker on Indy's offense, and I have to assume the coaches recognize that.
The OC and HC have both made comments about a shift in philosophy from a run-dominant offense to one that plays to their strengths, ie Luck. And I have to believe with the (lack of) quality of their offensive line and running back that unit won't suddenly become dominant. The first preseason game supports this.
As to the other pass catching options..Wayne is old, coming off of a major knee surgery, and will be limited to short and intermediate routes. Rodgers hasn't yet shown the ability to run more than a few deep routes. Moncrief is a rookie and will be lucky to see much of the field this season. Allen and Fleener are both good players and should be effective in what they're asked to do which is underneath routes and short/intermediate seam routes. Richardson (or any rb) will be decently targeted in dump-offs.
Hilton will by far be Indy's most productive WR. I'm projecting him at 1200-1400 yards with 7-11 TDs
WR1 this year, consistency worries are unwarranted
Edit*
The primary risk involved with Hilton last year was consistency. Pep was insistent on starting DHB across from Wayne and as a result Hilton only played ~60% of snaps early in the season. Injuries to Wayne and Allen, ineffectiveness of DHB and every receiver not named Wayne, and the fact that Hilton produced while in the game eventually led to more opportunities. It was obvious that Hilton was the best playmaker on Indy's offense, and I have to assume the coaches recognize that.
The OC and HC have both made comments about a shift in philosophy from a run-dominant offense to one that plays to their strengths, ie Luck. And I have to believe with the (lack of) quality of their offensive line and running back that unit won't suddenly become dominant. The first preseason game supports this.
As to the other pass catching options..Wayne is old, coming off of a major knee surgery, and will be limited to short and intermediate routes. Rodgers hasn't yet shown the ability to run more than a few deep routes. Moncrief is a rookie and will be lucky to see much of the field this season. Allen and Fleener are both good players and should be effective in what they're asked to do which is underneath routes and short/intermediate seam routes. Richardson (or any rb) will be decently targeted in dump-offs.
Hilton will by far be Indy's most productive WR. I'm projecting him at 1200-1400 yards with 7-11 TDs
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Hoss Style
Footballguy
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Luck is the only one of the top 5 QBs that doesn't have his top target drafted in the first 2 rounds. Hilton seems undervalued. You could argue that Wayne will be the most targeted, but Hilton will have the big YPC.
Hilton is being drafted as WR#25. Yet Luck is QB#5. It seems unlikely that both valuations would end up being right, even if Luck does spread it around to the entire WR/TE group. Either Hilton or Wayne (or both) should be getting drafted higher or Luck lower. I don't know what to make of Nicks. He played with zero heart last year but that Giants team was a mess and Eli forgot how to play QB.
The reverse of this year's WR/QB value anomaly is Jay Cutler. His RB and top two WR are all going in the first 20 picks. Yet Cutler drops down to QB12 or lower. It doesn't add up.
Hilton is being drafted as WR#25. Yet Luck is QB#5. It seems unlikely that both valuations would end up being right, even if Luck does spread it around to the entire WR/TE group. Either Hilton or Wayne (or both) should be getting drafted higher or Luck lower. I don't know what to make of Nicks. He played with zero heart last year but that Giants team was a mess and Eli forgot how to play QB.
The reverse of this year's WR/QB value anomaly is Jay Cutler. His RB and top two WR are all going in the first 20 picks. Yet Cutler drops down to QB12 or lower. It doesn't add up.
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In my league, Luck finished #5 last year and TY was #18.
That was with minimal competition for targets. Wayne missed half the season, Allen missed the whole season, and the next best WR on the roster was DHB.
With Wayne/Allen/Nicks around, I don't see how TY could possibly see the same number of targets he did last year. The targets he does see would likely be more efficient this year, but I don't see him as being all that underrated.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
How do you see the targets being distributed? In my leagues (and FFPC), Luck finished QB7 and Hilton WR19 last year.
Like last year, I don't see how Luck finishes as QB#5 without a WR in the top 20. Going into his third year, Hilton seems like a breakout candidate to not only lead the Colts WR group but also finish again in the top 20. I would argue that his situation last year was worse since he was in year 2 and defenses could key on him only for the most part.
Also nobody is passing on Jordy Nelson or Alshon Jeffrey or even DeSean Jackson because their teams have a bunch of other weapons. Yet for some reason, people are passing on Hilton even though the Colts other weapons are not really that great by comparison.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
He will kill your team when he busts for 3 out of 5 weeks......good luck predicting which weeks he will go off.....he did that with Wayne, Allen injured....now they are back and Hicks is there tooleftcoastguy7 said:
Week 11-17 in a PPr league he scored 9 8 9 2 15 10 26 points.....despite 64 freaking targets (i.e 9 targets a week avg).....he ain't getting those targets with wayne, hicks, allen and he was avg despite those targets
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Targets schmargets. The kid makes plays.
Second Sight
Footballguy
Lots of good points in these posts.
A few thoughts: Everyone talks about how there will be too many mouths to feed but, like you say, there seems to never be a concern with mouths to feed in Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, etc.
A great deal of the focus is pointed at Wayne missing a lot of the season and the "lack of competition" for targets but if you look at last year's targets, when Wayne was healthy, he was very consistently receiving 8-9 targets a game (Wayne). Hilton DID have 2 games in that stretch where he had 4 and 5 targets, but in the remainder, he had 8, 9, 11, and 12. So, the targets were there. People may be overlooking that what really happened is we saw a 2nd year player begin to come into his own.
There is also a lot of talk about Nicks and Rogers, etc. I think they both CAN be impactful and very good but the reality, for what it's worth and without trying to predict anything, is that Nicks has to show that he can remain both on the field and effective for more than a game here and a game there before we should assume he will eat off the same plate as the other WRS. Rogers has great talent but I trust there is a reason the Colts drafted Wrs this year and keep Whalen. There must be some level of concern/not sold yet.
The biggest drawback to the WRs may be the return of Allen, in my opinion but he's not likely to get consistent targets that move the chains. In the Colts offense, that is clearly a designed role for WRs and is where Wayne has made a living for several years now.
The one other thing I will say about the perception of targets is that it is reasonable to believe that a talent like Andrew Luck entering his third year will be a better player and might increase his passing this year.
Reports like those that come from Rotoworld probably feed the perception. They mention things like Hilton was the 14th targeted WR last year and might be lucky to be the 20th targeted WR this year. The layman might read that and think that is terrible and feed the concerns we see on the boards but if you look at the target charts, you will see that the difference between the 14th targeted WR last year and the 20th was 5 targets. We can live with that, given Hilton's ability for the big play and certainly that can be more than offset if Luck progresses this year. Wouldn't it be reasonable to think that if Luck attempts 50 more throws this year that 5-10 of those might find their way to Hilton? §
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Hoss Style
Footballguy
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I really don't like Hilton much. But there are a lot of guys I like even less. I have him around WR20.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
We Tigers
Footballguy
Tons of talent, but I like him considerably more for dynasty than redraft. He was extremely boom/bust last year, even after Wayne and Allen were both out and Hilton was on the field in every 2WR set.
In terms of guys going near him by ADP, I prefer Torrey Smith, whom I expect Kubiak and Flacco to feed a ton of targets this year.
In terms of guys going near him by ADP, I prefer Torrey Smith, whom I expect Kubiak and Flacco to feed a ton of targets this year.
VaTerp
Footballguy
There are several examples of QBs finishing top 5 while their top target is in the 15-20 range. Rivers last year and Brees the year before Graham's emergence immediately come to mind.
In my league last year Luck was actually 13th in PPG and Hilton was 25th. I'm with the consensus in seeing a step up for Luck this year and have him as QB5 on my board but I think Hilton is ranked about right. He may be slightly undervalued but not by much IMO. And let's also remember that one of the factors in Luck's ranking is his potential on the ground.
I think people often overstate consistency when it comes to WRs but Hilton was very boom or bust last year. He scored below 9 pts in PPR of 16 games last year and I think his season would have been seen as a fairly big disappointment if not for his week 17 11 catch 155 yard performance making his end year numbers look better. He also scored all 5 of his TDs in just 2 games.
You say that people arent passing on Jordy, Jeffery, or even D-Jax because of other weapons but the first 2 are entirely different WRs. They are both 6'3 WRs who can be physical off the line and offer much more potential consistency if their big plays are taken away. Hilton is 5'9 and yet to show he can be a consistent threat when teams take away the big play. D-Jax is a good comparison and I see plenty of people passing on him b/c he is more of the boom or bust nature like Hilton.
If I fully believed the Colts were going to let Luck loose and go pass heavy then I would have Hilton higher but I'm not buying that yet. And I have a feeling that if Wayne and Nicks are fully healthy we may see a bit of a rotation among the 3 Wrs in their base two TE set depending on matchups and thus limiting Hilton's snaps a bit more than most think.
I like Hilton and the potential is there but I think there are lots of good reasons that he's going where he is in drafts right now.
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This was a product of the coaching staff misevaluating ability in Hilton's first two years. Pagano and Arians are both on record saying that they envisioned TY as a kick/punt returner long term.
In this scenario, which I personally don't give much of a chance of happening, Wayne would come off the field, not TY.
http://profootballspot.com/_/nfl/afc-south/indianapolis-colts/why-the-colts-ty-hilton-is-more-than-just-a-deep-threat-r3437
Sabertooth
Footballguy
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VaTerp
Footballguy
Nice link and I don't disagree with any of it. But I'm still not sold that the coaching staff is ready to feature Hilton to the extent it suggests. A 5 second search found the link below where Pagano talks about doing more with Hilton and I'm interested in looking more closely.
http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2014/08/14/chuck-pagano-ty-hilton-much-can-guy-like/14077945/
I'm also interested in seeing snap count numbers as I don't think Hilton is automatically going to be the clear #1 as you think. Like I said I can see a bit more of a rotation than some think, especially if you take run blocking into consideration. Thats speculation and perhaps overthinking on my part but I'm just now looking closely at the Colts, mostly due to my interest in Luck, and the offensive approach of this staff still gives me some pause.
Again I do like Hilton's potential but I'm not seeing him breaking the top 20 in my rankings. I'm seeing him anywhere from 21-25 Wrs off the board. So as I said before he may be slightly undervalued right now by I don't think by much.
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Second Sight
Footballguy
I'd like to challenge that statement.
In the 8 weeks after Wayne went out, Hilton (in PPR), had a 35+ game, 3 18-24 games, 4 7.5-9 games, and a 2 pointer.
In those same 8 weeks, for comparison sake, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, D. Thomas, and Dez Bryant all had a game where they had 4-6 points. None, except for Calvin, had a game where they scored 35+. Each of these four had 1-3 more games where they scored in that 17-24 range. So the main difference in what we are calling boom/bust is that these four players all had 1-3 games where Hilton may have scored 8 and they may have scored 17. That's a difference and worth noting but, at the same time, that is comparing Hilton straight up to the elite of the elites in fantasy WRs.
So, if you are setting your expectation for Hilton to be a top 5 WR in fantasy, then I can go along with the boom/bust idea because the bar is set extremely high.
However, if you are setting the expectation of Hilton as being a top 15-18 WR, a very high and productive bar, then take note that when compared to those type of players, such as Pierre Garcon, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, and Michael Floyd, he had extremely similar game totals and stats with them. They all had the low game. They all had those 7-9 pointers, a couple of 15s or so and a really good game here or there. Compared to them, all of which people are generally high on, he is just like them.
Would you guess that, in the second half of the season, his stats look almost identical to Andre Johnson's? They do. Could you live with that production?
Would you guess that, over the second half of the season (again, in ppr), he finished WR13? And would you guess that #14 was Dez Bryant and #15 was Calvin?
This notion of feast or famine and boom or bust and, in general, he's not there yet is, in my opinion, misleading. What we saw last year was a 2nd year WR really start to come into his own with a 2nd year QB that should be great. It really surprises me that people are dismissing this so easily because normally when you have a big play WR that is entering his 3rd year with an ascending super star QB, people usually buy those players more than sell them.
Just something to consider. §
VaTerp
Footballguy
Your stat comparison with the top 4 Wrs appears very cherry picked and misleading to me but I'll leave that alone for now.
The bolded claim referencing AJ just is not true. After both of their week 8 byes Andre Johnson (59-823-5) scored 30 more in PPR than Hilton (55-671-3) and that's including week 17 when Hilton outscored Johnson by 17 pts.
So in the last 8 games of the FF season Johnson outscored Hilton by 47 pts or almost 6 points per game. Even when you include week 17 when all of my leagues are done, Johnson still outscored him by over 3 ppg.
Any way you want to spin the numbers, to say that Hilton's stats were almost identical to Johnson's over the 2nd half of the season is patently false.
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We Tigers
Footballguy
The Dez numbers aren't accurate either. Second Sight, I think you may be measuring 9 games of Hilton's against 8 games for each of the other guys. Dez's last 9 games: 21, 12, 5, 19, 19, 9, 32, 17, 24, for 158 points. Hilton's last 9 games: 37, 20, 9, 8, 10, 3, 16, 10, 26, for a total of 139. Dez was over 2 PPG ahead of him the entire time after Wayne was out, and he was more consistent.
I know your point isn't really to compare him to the superstars, but it doesn't help the case when the numbers are wrong. I don't think he compares favorably to the other guys, either; Garcon had 1 game under 11 points all year. Nelson had 3, all with Rodgers out. In 13 games as a starter, Allen had 4 games under 11 points. He's closer to Floyd. Hilton's games post-Wayne had him on pace for about 8 of them. Take it from someone who owned all of these guys, Hilton included last year: his track record, even when playing consistently in 2WR sets, is much more erratic than those of the guys you've cited.
That isn't to discount him entirely. I think he has the potential for a good year and to improve his consistency, but I think there's also a good case that he actually is more boom/bust than at least the guys you've compared him against. I know every stud player is more up and down than we typically perceive, but there are some gradations. By ADP, he's probably still a decent choice.
I know your point isn't really to compare him to the superstars, but it doesn't help the case when the numbers are wrong. I don't think he compares favorably to the other guys, either; Garcon had 1 game under 11 points all year. Nelson had 3, all with Rodgers out. In 13 games as a starter, Allen had 4 games under 11 points. He's closer to Floyd. Hilton's games post-Wayne had him on pace for about 8 of them. Take it from someone who owned all of these guys, Hilton included last year: his track record, even when playing consistently in 2WR sets, is much more erratic than those of the guys you've cited.
That isn't to discount him entirely. I think he has the potential for a good year and to improve his consistency, but I think there's also a good case that he actually is more boom/bust than at least the guys you've compared him against. I know every stud player is more up and down than we typically perceive, but there are some gradations. By ADP, he's probably still a decent choice.
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Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
This kid has been a baller since his days at FIU. He has the jets and he makes plays. He is a perfect WR3 if you go top heavy that way, likely gonna have weeks like 120/2TD, next week 4/42, next week you get 110/TD, he is a little up n down but those weeks he hits, he hits for distance.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Yes but are there many examples of a QB finishing top 5 with their top target in the 25 or lower range, which is where TY is currently being drafted. My point is that TY is either being drafted at least 5 WR spots too low, or Luck is being drafted too high. I think it is the former.
Or T.Y. isn't perceived by most as Luck's top target, since he wasn't when Wayne was healthy last year, and hasn't been in practice all preseason this year, etc.
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
Dont have the numbers but Ive heard that he hasnt played well away from home on grass. Still tough for me to bench in this one. I drafted him thinking he is the top target on a prolific offense. The other guys may take some targets but he is still ther most explosive guy. Gotta think Luck will be trying to get him the ball regardless of who else is out there.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
FBG's don't rain on my TY Hilton parade! I drafted this guy as my WR#1 and I'm starting him...with confidence!!
Shutout
Footballguy
Just a guess but I don't think he's a great matchup this week. Very boom or bust because this doesn't look like a game where he is going to be targeted heavily. He wasn't in the game last year with the Broncos (with Wayne) and most talk is speculating that the Colts will be attempting to play some ball control and keep the Broncos off the field.
I love Hilton, just not this week. He's not a great garbage time producer and this game is probably heading that way. With that being said, I love Hilton and would love to eat crow on this one. Just not feeling it. I think this is going to be one of those games where Luck's legs are used, the running game is used so much that us as fans will be screaming at the tv begging them to throw more and Wayne will end up with 12 targets in 8-12 yard increments. Just doesn't have the vibe of one of those games where you get to appreciate the showcase of what the Colts can be.
I love Hilton, just not this week. He's not a great garbage time producer and this game is probably heading that way. With that being said, I love Hilton and would love to eat crow on this one. Just not feeling it. I think this is going to be one of those games where Luck's legs are used, the running game is used so much that us as fans will be screaming at the tv begging them to throw more and Wayne will end up with 12 targets in 8-12 yard increments. Just doesn't have the vibe of one of those games where you get to appreciate the showcase of what the Colts can be.
Assuming Denver is scoring points (safe assumption imo) then Indy will absolutely be throwing. I also think you're underestimating how much involvement Hilton will have in general and relative to Wayne. Hilton is the #1 and should be a target monster this season. Much less boom/bust than people expect in my opinion
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I like Hilton, but I think he's one of the most difficult players to project with Wayne back. That's a reasonable projection though, I think.
Hilton went much, much later than I expected in all my drafts, and much below his ranking. I think his fantasy inconsistency week-to-week, coupled with the return of Wayne and all the talk about the many weapons in Indy were the reasons why. So he could represent huge value to those who took a chance (which wasn't much of a chance, based on where I saw him going).
Texasmouth
Footballguy
So who are you all starting? Wayne VS Hilton?
I have them both and I am rolling with Wayne because it is PPR and i think he still gets enough targets to make him the better start.
I have them both and I am rolling with Wayne because it is PPR and i think he still gets enough targets to make him the better start.
joffer
Footballguy
There is no format where I would start Wayne over Hilton, and it's not close
Peak
Footballguy
What are his projections now following the first quarter of the season? Is Hilton living up to some of the optimistic projections of being Luck's favorite target on the field? I see his targets are higher than Wayne's (2+ most games). The lack of TDs are concerning, but he's piling up the receptions and yardage. Is it just a matter of time for the TDs to come, or will Indy continue to look elsewhere for TDs in the RZ?
