I considered playing him over Cooks but I'm not sure I can do it after seeing Baldwin back and looking healthy. However, I imagine it being a shoot out.Thoughts on Lockett this week? I suspect Seattle wants to run as much as possible to keep KC O off the field in this one but I would think Wilson is going to have to sling it at some point to keep pace. Potentially, a lot. Lockett's been low volume but very efficient all year. Still, only 2 targets in two of the last three games (both vs SF) and now it seems Baldwin is healthy again. Potential for big play is always there and I could seem him having a big game if SEA is chasing. I worry the low volume may finally catch up to his owners at the worst time, though. If the game is going the Seahawks way, are they going to try to get him the ball much?
This was a great post I totally overlooked before sitting Williams over Lockett. Didn’t cost me, but I should have read this sooner.Downside with Lockett last time SEA played SF was the lack of targets (he scored on a 52 yard TD pass, only target of the game.
That was entirely due to Lockett being matched up against Richard Sherman on the right side of the offense for much of the game.
If Baldwin sits out this week that moves Lockett to a greater share of snaps from the slot and must play territory for me.
If Baldwin suits up I may grab Pettis off waivers and start him at my WR 2 slot, not sure.
Serious question: why doesn't he get more targets?
A good question. The guy has been ultra efficient which begs for more usage. He's currently getting 17% of Wilson's targets which on most teams would be over 100 on the season. However, the Seahawks have found a running game and they love it. They rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts (which actually makes the fact that Wilson ranks 3rd in passing TDs all the more impressive).Serious question: why doesn't he get more targets?
Yes. I really like him in 2019 as he is likely to be their #1 target.Stunned it took this long to find this thread.
With Doug Baldwin retiring due to accumulated injuries Tyler Lockett is Seattle's new #1 receiver, with the rest of the crew being David Moore and D.K. Metcalfe. It's not a stretch to lock in 8 targets a game from him now.
I've never seen a player average over 3 points per target. I'd say his ceiling is extremely high. His weekly floor is quite low, though. He's an ideal best ball player.High floor, low ceiling
likely won’t be on many of my redraft squads unless he slides...intend to shoot for the higher ceiling guys. No points for second place.
Opposite for me...I think he's going to be an every-week starter for most fantasy teams, but I own him in three dynasties with varied scoring systems (even one that gives huge bonuses for long TDs) and I've never once gotten an offer for him. He might be a WR2/3 in rankings, but I feel like people view him as a WR4/5.
At least last year, he was completely the opposite of high floor, low ceiling. What makes you say he has a low ceiling? Just passing volume in Seattle?High floor, low ceiling
likely won’t be on many of my redraft squads unless he slides...intend to shoot for the higher ceiling guys. No points for second place.
I think he means season total and you mean weekly score.At least last year, he was completely the opposite of high floor, low ceiling. What makes you say he has a low ceiling? Just passing volume in Seattle?
I think the ceiling comes into play if Seattle's defense sputters this year and they need to throw the ball more. His ceiling is that his efficiency wasn't a fluke and he really is a great receiver.I think he means season total and you mean weekly score.
But that's not even true. His best total last year was 5 catches. He had one 100 yard game (107 yards- but he also had a 99 and a 98 yard game). He had 0 multi touchdown games - but he had 10 games with 1 touchdown. If you only watch box scores (and tripitup is not that guy) he actually was high floor low ceiling each week.
Last year what seemed to happen was that Wilson used him early to get the lead and late if he needed to catch up. If Seattle got to an early lead then his numbers could suffer. It didn't work exactly that way, but it was close enough.
The question is whether he'll get fed now that he's the presumptive wr1. The knock on him is that he only had 71 targets last year and can't keep up his ridiculous per- target numbers. It stands to reason that he would have 100 plus targets this year without Baldwin. In 3 weeks without Baldwin he had 7, 6 and 6 targets for 5, 5 and 4 receptions - that's pace for 106 targets. So even with less efficiency, it seems likely his targets go up.
That probably means 1000 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. Maybe 1100 yards. Probably not 1400 yards.
I like the guy a lot and own him in dynasty with guys who frequent this board in the off season.. But I agree with Trip that he's high floor low ceiling and would rather have a higher upside player (especially in ppr).
Like i said i'm fairly high on him.I think the ceiling comes into play if Seattle's defense sputters this year and they need to throw the ball more. His ceiling is that his efficiency wasn't a fluke and he really is a great receiver.
I think we often get too caught up in notions of ceiling and floor. It rarely seems to work out that way and a lot of times the guys with the safest floors end up being total busts and guys with limited upside end up becoming outright studs. If I recall guys like Hopkins, Antonio Brown, M Thomas, JuJu, and Keenan Allen were seen as guys who could be long term fantasy WR2's but didn't really have that big ceiling that people wanted.
We don't give points for second place in my league but you do get a large cash prize.High floor, low ceiling
likely won’t be on many of my redraft squads unless he slides...intend to shoot for the higher ceiling guys. No points for second place.
Like i said i'm fairly high on him.
I think the best way to look at him is as a guy you'd start any week he plays a good offense. He's not a possession receiver and he's not a guy i'm worried about the defense he plays because i trust Wilson to hit him a couple times. But against a bad offense he might get taken out for a quarter or more.
If you use him like that I think you get high end wr2 numbers for a dozen or so weeks
so so true. Yes, he got 70 targets. Yes he got 10 TDs which he probably won't get this year. And yes Wilson had a passing TD% of 8.2% and that will likely lower to 7.0% or so - but I don't care. Not only will the targets very likely increase, but Lockett is just so so good at so many routes, and it is clear at this point that Lockett and Wilson have an amazing rapport.One of the most underrated players in fantasy. There's no discussion on him because the universal narrative is that he won't repeat his efficiency and he won't get more targets. Not sure why everybody assumes the only way he can be good is if he maintains his efficiency. He should see a lot more targets this year. It's highly unlikely Seattle will be able to run as much as they did last year, even if they want to.
Looking at his weekly scores, I get what you are saying. He finished in the teens but under 20 points almost every week in PPR.I think he means season total and you mean weekly score.
But that's not even true. His best total last year was 5 catches. He had one 100 yard game (107 yards- but he also had a 99 and a 98 yard game). He had 0 multi touchdown games - but he had 10 games with 1 touchdown. If you only watch box scores (and tripitup is not that guy) he actually was high floor low ceiling each week.
I traded for him last fall: offered Mark Andrews, Curtis Samuel and this year 2nd rounder for Lockett. I'm very high on him.Opposite for me...
Traded for him this time last year. flipped him and Yeldon at about week 6 for a 2019 1st. Then traded for him right at the trade deadline for a 2019 2nd. Traded him in the offseason with a few others for 2020 1st.
Traded him twice and traded for.him twice
Last year was his ceiling...if you can get value I'd pull the trigger.Kind of feel like Lockett isn't a bad sell high right now. Especially if a 2020 1st is on the table, or a top-5 pick this year.
Tyler Lockett got some work in the slot but he worked just about every spot at wide receiver. With the retirement of Doug Baldwin, Lockett gave the look of a player ready to be considered a No. 1 receiver.
It was only 3-4 games. Week 1, Baldwin only played 11 snaps. So if you count that one, Lockett had 5.75 targets per game without Baldwin and 4 targets per game with him (I think he had 6 targets in the playoff loss, too). That would be a pace of 92 targets. But the real question is if Seattle is going to throw as little as they did last year. Wilson only threw 427 passes after throwing 546 and 553 the previous two years.jm192 said:If someone can post the splits--I think he had something like 2.3 more targets per game without Baldwin. That's 36.8 more targets or 36 to be conservative/simple.
His absurd efficiency has to regress to the mean. But there's more opportunity.
I would think you're looking at something like 70-75 catches, 950-1000 yards, 7-8 TD's.
Why did I have it in my head that this guy was always hurt? Went to Pro Football Reference, which indicates that he has only missed one game in his career (1 game in 2015). So durability is not an issue with him?Lockett is a lock for solid production assuming health is there.
I wasn't overly excited about him prior to the Baldwin injury but now we're looking a the primary target in the offense. Should be money in the bank.
He broke his leg pretty bad one season and it really hampered him the following season. Was one of those breaks where it needed basically a year for full recovery. I believe it was last season that he was back to full strength.Why did I have it in my head that this guy was always hurt? Went to Pro Football Reference, which indicates that he has only missed one game in his career (1 game in 2015). So durability is not an issue with him?
Fully agree. While efficiency might regress to the mean, so will Seattle’s passing attempts. Outside of Lockett last year who can you name from the wr core- Moore? And then? A hampered Baldwin who basically said at some point last year that he was like 75%? Nick vannett and will dissly? 5 catches a game should be pretty easy to get.Lockett is a lock for solid production assuming health is there.
I wasn't overly excited about him prior to the Baldwin injury but now we're looking a the primary target in the offense. Should be money in the bank.
I think he also played through a PCL or LCL injury to start his sophomore season which also limited him. I feel like he's only been healthy his first and fourth seasons.He broke his leg pretty bad one season and it really hampered him the following season. Was one of those breaks where it needed basically a year for full recovery. I believe it was last season that he was back to full strength.
They did draft 3 WRs including Metcalf in the 2nd and Jennings in the 4th. I expect the (first) 5 WRs on the roster this year will be Lockett, Metcalf, Moore, Jaron Brown, and Jennings.Snorkelson said:Fully agree. While efficiency might regress to the mean, so will Seattle’s passing attempts. Outside of Lockett last year who can you name from the wr core- Moore? And then? A hampered Baldwin who basically said at some point last year that he was like 75%? Nick vannett and will dissly? 5 catches a game should be pretty easy to get.
But what can you conceivably get for him? I don’t think anyone is giving up a 1st, and I haven’t received a single offer for him in any of my leagues.I'm with JWB...
I dont see a scenario where Lockett gets 100, but anything is possible I guess. Lockett is a great sell high right now considering the hype around his role.
But what can you conceivably get for him? I don’t think anyone is giving up a 1st, and I haven’t received a single offer for him in any of my leagues.
No way I’m selling for a 2nd or a pair of 2nds.
Baldwin, the wr1 in the offense, had target numbers of 116, 125, and 103 before last years injury riddled season. It isn’t inconceivable that he gets 100+. They didn’t throw a lot last year, but they didn’t have any weapons. Moore got targets because Baldwin was playing on one leg. Wilson was playing banged up too if I recall. They drafted a bunch of guys because they didn’t have any passing game weapons, and I think they will pass more- maybe not a big increase this coming year (but an increase) and a bigger increase in coming years.They did draft 3 WRs including Metcalf in the 2nd and Jennings in the 4th. I expect the (first) 5 WRs on the roster this year will be Lockett, Metcalf, Moore, Jaron Brown, and Jennings.
Baldwin vacates 73 targets and Marshall vacates 23. But Metcalf will likely get a lot of those, Dissly missed 12 games last season, and Moore's targets could increase -- he had 3 targets in the first 4 games, then 50 targets over the last 12 games.
I will take the under on 100 targets for Lockett this season.
Wilson was not “banged up” last year.Baldwin, the wr1 in the offense, had target numbers of 116, 125, and 103 before last years injury riddled season. It isn’t inconceivable that he gets 100+. They didn’t throw a lot last year, but they didn’t have any weapons. Moore got targets because Baldwin was playing on one leg. Wilson was playing banged up too if I recall. They drafted a bunch of guys because they didn’t have any passing game weapons, and I think they will pass more- maybe not a big increase this coming year (but an increase) and a bigger increase in coming years.
The time to buy was last year.
I’m sorry I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth. I thought I remember Wilson playing through some injury later on in the season.Wilson was not “banged up” last year.
Seattle didn’t throw a lot because Carroll wanted a run heavy offense. No reason to expect that to change this season.
I didn’t say it is inconceivable that he gets 100+, I said I will take the under on that number.
I don't see how his floor can be 85 when just last season he got only 70 despite:Snorkelson said:I think he has a floor of maybe 85 targets and a ceiling of 120?