Through 14.11....
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WSL4 - Teams & Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pickle Rody
- Start date
Toads
Footballguy
An easy way to "keep the draft thread clean": make a pick every eight to ten hours whether it needs it or not.
This pretty much says it all:
This pretty much says it all:
My gosh is this SLOW or what?Where at the kicker and defense stage now. I just want two that start and to fill out my lineup. The slowness of the draft is now overboard. Rather than consuming my time checking in on a regular basis, I figured I'd just post it and go enjoy a couple of days in the mountains.
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Through 15.04....
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Please check on my 12.14 pick. I think it was Dallas D.This has been a huge help Ruff.
Yes, it was the Cowboys, and I had missed it (now fixed.)Along the course of maintaining the lists, I've found other omissions that are now fixed.
Everyone should check and verify their own teams, just to be sure there are no other errors.
Now through 17.09......
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BassNBrew
6.14 - Matt Leinart, ARI, QB16
8.14 - David Garrard, JAC, QB20
9.03 - Alex Smith, SF, QB21
1.03 - Ray Rice, BAL, RB3
5.03 - Felix Jones, DAL, RB23
7.03 - Marion Barber III, DAL, RB33
2.14 - DeSean Jackson, PHI, WR12
3.03 - Sidney Rice, MIN, WR14
4.14 - Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR21
11.03 - Nate Burleson, SEA, WR62
13.03 - Josh Morgan, SF, WR73
10.14 - Todd Heap, BAL, TE22
17.03 - Dante Rosario, CAR, TE33
14.14 - Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K5
15.03 - Ryan Longwell, MIN, K9
12.14 - Cowboys, DAL, D7
16.14 - Seahawks, SEA, D24
Just need to fill out the RB and WR positions which will leave one roll the dice pick. Feel good about being in the upper half of the league at every position excluding TE where I'll be giving up significant ground.
6.14 - Matt Leinart, ARI, QB16
8.14 - David Garrard, JAC, QB20
9.03 - Alex Smith, SF, QB21
1.03 - Ray Rice, BAL, RB3
5.03 - Felix Jones, DAL, RB23
7.03 - Marion Barber III, DAL, RB33
2.14 - DeSean Jackson, PHI, WR12
3.03 - Sidney Rice, MIN, WR14
4.14 - Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR21
11.03 - Nate Burleson, SEA, WR62
13.03 - Josh Morgan, SF, WR73
10.14 - Todd Heap, BAL, TE22
17.03 - Dante Rosario, CAR, TE33
14.14 - Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K5
15.03 - Ryan Longwell, MIN, K9
12.14 - Cowboys, DAL, D7
16.14 - Seahawks, SEA, D24
Just need to fill out the RB and WR positions which will leave one roll the dice pick. Feel good about being in the upper half of the league at every position excluding TE where I'll be giving up significant ground.
Through 17.11..........
On a side note: I'm pretty surprised there have been so many re-picks due to folks NOT USING "Control F". I have been on top of the draft thread each time this happened.....meaning that the players erroneously selected were already on the list and would have been found had folks used "Control F". Also, I've been pretty diligent about correct spelling, so it cannot be said that folks couldn't find the name because it was spelled wrong. Sort of disappointing.......that's all I'm saying.
Carry on.
On a side note: I'm pretty surprised there have been so many re-picks due to folks NOT USING "Control F". I have been on top of the draft thread each time this happened.....meaning that the players erroneously selected were already on the list and would have been found had folks used "Control F". Also, I've been pretty diligent about correct spelling, so it cannot be said that folks couldn't find the name because it was spelled wrong. Sort of disappointing.......that's all I'm saying.
Carry on.
Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
About the only thing not disapointing about this draft is thae way you have kept up this thread. THANK YOU
About the only thing I do not like about your team is the doubling up on Cowboy RB's and the poor set of TE's. Otherwise I think you have one of the better suited teams to finish top 3. I am looking forward to giving my views on all of the teams when this is finally over!Through 17.14........BassNBrew said:Well that and me dominating.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
hate to say it, but I've pretty much lost interest at this point. I'll be back to dominate the summer and spring leagues.
Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
Well, maybe you learned after you screwed the pooch in WSL1BassNBrew said:
Well that and me dominating.
FUBAR
Footballguy
One of these years I'll have to pay attention earlier and get into the early leagues where people make more mistakes.Well, maybe you learned after you screwed the pooch in WSL1BassNBrew said:
Through 18.07.........
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Stinkin Refs Draft:
I love FBGs. These drafts are part of the reason. I hope to participate in as many of these as you guys let me. I love the learning experience. I am not a big stat guy, or a big history guy, or a standard deviation guy, or a strategy guy, any of those things.I am a gut-gamble guy, I look at the rules and scoring system and I let my gut lead the way....if I am high on somebody, it is usually because my eyes tell me so, not because of some set of stats or something, and therefore I will go after guys I like maybe a lot sooner than their ADP, and I will take chances in formats like this.
Lets get to it
Strategy: As you can probably tell, I didn’t really have one. But what I did have consisted of this, which is mostly a swing for the fence mentality:
1. I looked at the rules and besides the obvious TE stuff etc, one other thing stood out. DST scoring. If your DST pitched a shutout and held the other team under 200 yards of offense, the best you could do was 10 points for that (just 4 more than a TD and what are the odds that a DST gets all of those 10 points each week) Which meant that the rest of your points come basically from turnovers/sacks, and return TD’s, which besides sacks, are very hard to predict year to year. Your big weeks are probably when your DST takes one to the house in some way, otherwise I wouldnt think there is a ton of difference (could be very wrong here). So I knew going in, I wasn’t going to put a ton of emphasis on defense. I was going to target Cleveland late just to get the Cribbs factor. Didn’t pan out. Could be completely off base here, but that is what I was thinking. I also considered taking it to the extreme and only taking one, hoping to skate by the bye week.
2. I wasn’t going to be real concerned about week to week consistency. I gave more weight to guys that could blow up and carry me on any given week.
3. I wanted strong QBs as I think they alone can sometimes help you advance. If you are way behind at the QB position, I think it is tough to play catch up.
4. Wanted a solid TE and then to really forget about it.
5. Wanted to gamble on some up and coming/unproven players as opposed to taking guys that we know what we are going to get from week to week. (I know, probably not the best way to go).
The Draft: not real concerned about what spot I got, I think you can win any league from any spot.
1.10 - Randy Moss, NE, WR3: Having to start 3 WRs each week and being in the 10 spot I pretty much knew I was going WR here. This pick came down to Moss vs. Fitz. Warners retirement lead me to Moss. Moss will have Brady throwing him the ball, Fitz won’t.
2.07 - Jason Witten, DAL, TE3: As this pick got closer, I started liking the idea of pairing Moss with Marshall, but EBF took care of that two picks ahead of me, so I switched directions. I started looking at other options and could not get Witten’s 94 catches out of my head. In this format, he was a pretty easy pick here. By making this pick, I knew I had just passed on the top level QB’s and the RB’s would be really slim by the time it got back to me. I realized if I didn’t get a top TE, they also would not make it back to me. Taking a TE this early dictated a few things, one being, I will not pick another TE for a very long time, my eggs are in Wittens basket here, he either helps carry this team, or he kills it by getting injured or something.
3.10 - Matt Schaub, HOU, QB6: As this pick got closer, nothing at RB really excited me, even though I knew it was probably the direction I should head, but nothing looked great. Moreno?...nah..Grant?...nah, Benson?...nothing really jumping out at me. Took a look at the other drafts and saw guys like Brown falling pretty far and thought I could hit some homeruns later. So I shifted. Wanted to have solid options at QB, so pulled the trigger on Schaub I love the fact that he has Johnson and some other weapons and a shaky running game as it stands right now. I know a good running game can help the passing game, but at the same time, if you cant really run, you will throw. And with Schaub and Johnson, that is one of the strengths of the Houston team.
4.07 - Donovan McNabb, PHI, QB10: two QB’s in your first 4 picks taking a backup with your 4th pick? Not real sure what to say here. If I remember correctly I made this pick pretty late at night after having a few. Maybe should have just gone to bed.......or maybe not. Once again, nothing, I mean nothing, really excited me. So a couple of thoughts crept in, if I take McNabb here, I will be done with QB (and TE for that matter) and can focus the next several rounds on RB/WR. Looking at the other drafts made me think I could get away with this. Plus I know some other guys are probably sitting on McNabb as we move on. So the old, screw your neighbor strategy played in to this decision a little. Picking McNabb not only gives me a pretty solid option to chose from each week at a very important position, but it also keeps him off of somebody elses roster all year, and might in a backdoor way help me advance a week here or there. Probably the most pivotal round of the draft and I stray away from the safe direction. Huge gamble here, were tons of safer picks, but at this point, I am starting to feel like Dave Kingman instead of Rod Carew. Will see how this pans out .oh yeah, also just committed myself to RB wasteland.
5.10 - Jerome Harrison, CLE, RB26: Gotta start 2, gotta pick one eventually. Harrison proved he can carry the ball a ton and he is explosive. Many thought he should have been given his opportunity a long time ago. Not excited about him being the Refs bell cow, but Ill take it. He may not have the stuff to be an every down back all year, but Ill take my chances. As soon as I typed the words Schaub followed by McNabb, I knew this was the direction I was heading. Quantity over quality at this point from here on out. Ronnie Brown was going to be my pick here but Yellow took him the pick right before me. Might turn out to be a good thing.
6.07 - Terrell Owens, BUF, WR35: Back to the start 3 WR thing and I only have 1, so WR wins out over RB here. Was actually pretty excited to see TO, cant believe I just typed that. He fits my week to week boom or bust mentality. Only other WR that went prior to this pick that I would have jumped on would have been Garcon as I think he is the real deal and will lock down the #2 role in Indy. So EBF got me again two picks ahead. Moss/Owens/Witten, Ill take it. My RBs are gonna be hurtin.
7.10 - Jonathan Dwyer, ®, RB35: Damage control mode at this point, swing for the fences and hope this talented back lands in the right situation and contributes immediately. Odds of a RB coming in and producing early in the year are slim, but I hope Dwyer is the exception and that he lands in a good home.
8.07 - Devin Aromashodu, CHI, WR47: I really don’t have a ton to say here. I love this guy. This is one of those “trust your eyes/gut” pick. I think he is the real deal. I was going to get him on this team no matter what, so I may have picked him a round or two or more early. Not sure I can really say anymore to justify it, but this is a guy I will be targeting in every draft I am in.
9.10 - Laurence Maroney, NE, RB44: Trying to get some quantity at RB. I think Maroney is still very young and talented. He still runs with energy and power. With Taylor, Morris, Faulk, etc….looking at quite a few guys that are getting older. I know the Pats system does not usually equal great individual RB numbers, but if Maroney can start getting a little more of the load, he could be a high scorer on any given week. They may bring in some other guys, but I think Maroney still gets his piece of the pie on occasion in NE.
10.07 - Cadillac Williams, TB, RB49: Really liked this pick and was glad to see Caddy here. Was surprised he came back as well as he did last year. He adds a little stability to my RB’s. This wasn’t the most exciting or sexy pick at this point, but I was really happy to add Caddy here.
11.10 - Mario Manningham, NYG, WR65: Probably the other pick I am most happy about. He fits my boom or bust mentality perfectly and I think gives me 4 pretty strong potential homerun hitters each week at the WR position. I know he has competition for catches, but I think that may be a good thing in a survivor format as he will be on the field with some other talented WRs and may be able to make some big plays that can put you over the top on a week when you need it. Defenses wont key on him with the other guys on the field, and I think the NYGs will throw a ton.
12.07 - Demaryius Thomas, ®, WR72: Really high on this rookie and think he can make an impact right away no matter where he lands. I expect him to start right away even though he broke his foot. This is a gamble pick I felt I could make with the WRs I have on board already.
13.10 - Joe McNight, ®, RB56: Swingin for the fences mode in full affect. Another rookie RB gets added to the fold. Hoping to hit on one of these rookie RBs as their value will increase after the draft. If I can get a Clinton Portis type rookie year out of one of my rookie RBs I might be okay. If not, the McNabb pick will haunt me, but who cares Im having fun.
14.07 - Aaron Hernandez, ®, TE31: Taking a run at the record for most rookies on one team. When I took Witten I knew I would be waiting on my TE2. But also know with 2ppr you need to have some options. There were some other guys I looked at here and I may have made the mistake of watching his youtube highlight video. To me he is truly a pass catching TE and more of the hybrid type guy. That’s what I wanted with my TE2 pick, someone who is a playmaker and can run after the catch. There were safer picks here and other directions I could have gone, but that’s not how I roll.
15.10 - Matt Prater, DEN, K13: I hate this part of the draft. Serious thought after this that I should only go with one kicker because of my earlier gambles at other positions and my need to cover my ### with some depth. We'll see.
16.07 - Willie Parker, PIT, RB60: At the time I made this pick, he was my "hope the guy in front of him gets injured" pick. Also thought he might still have some solid weeks even in his current role.
17.10 - Olindo Mare, SEA, K25: At this point, the guys I am targeting to fill out my roster will probably still be there. As mentioned I thought about the one kicker strategy really hard, but realized, there will be times when I need a few consistent points. Kickers usually get that and this is good insurance in case something crazy happens. Seattle just used the franchise tag on Mare so his job security looks pretty safe. Was ok with this pick here and happy to have two pretty solid guys.
18.07-Oakland Raiders D30: They may end up being my only DST if somebody goes after 3 DST. Even if they dont, I may only go with one and roll the dice. Nothing to see here. If defense costs me advancement, I will live with that. To me these leagues are more about what we learn in other areas, not predicting what defense we think will be good.
19.10 Damian Williams WR Rookie: Needed to add another WR, saw guys like Camarillo, Crayton, Gage, Avant, B. Johnson, Jenkins, Mush etc still available. None of them seemed much different than the next. I know it is probably safe to try and pick a guy who will at least get you a few catches each week, but I decided to go for the unknown again and take a gamble on a rookie hoping he lands in a good situation and makes an impact. I guess the way I looked at it, Williams will probably at least put up the numbers that these other guys will, but his ceiling may be higher. We pretty much know what we will get from the other fellas, but maybe Williams busts out and gives me rookie year Eddie Royal or DJax numbers.
20.07 Detroit DST: Actually kind of struggled with this pick. Looked at my team and started hating my pick of Aaron Hernandez as my back up TE. Had been staring at Ben Watson for the last few rounds and almost pulled the trigger on him. I will be toast if something happens to Witten. Really hope Hernandez surprises me, because I will probably need him a few times even if Witten stays healthy. Also didn't like the fact that I only had 6 WR's and two of them were rookies, so I thought about pulling the trigger on one of the guys mentioned above. In the end I said screw it. Counting on the Raiders as my only option every week just sounded really pathetic. Actually thinking Detroit as a seconnd option was an improvement actually sounded even more pathetic, but in the end they won out. At least I will have two teams to chose from each week, and I started thinking that the odds of me actually using Detroit on any given week are probably a little better than me using a WR that I pick here. If my team makes it to Thanksgiving at least I will have something to cheer for during the first game of the day.
Grades:
QB: A- two pretty solid options
RB: F will kill this team
WR: B some potential here
TE: B- should have backed up Witten with proven vet
K: C whatever
D: F knew I was flunking this class going in
Overall: D+.........My QB's/WR's and Witten will need to carry this team..I HAVE to be right about Aromashodu......and a couple of my 5 rookies will have to pan out to even put up a respectable showing here.....not real happy, was pretty scattered, when you take chances your grade deserves to start low. I will be predicted to be one of the first guys to be eliminated and I am fine with that, because in this format even the team that everybody thinks is awesome, can be ousted the first week, so you never know. I learned quite a bit, so even though my final grade may not reflect it and I may get schooled...........I paid attention in class....
Good luck guys....
I love FBGs. These drafts are part of the reason. I hope to participate in as many of these as you guys let me. I love the learning experience. I am not a big stat guy, or a big history guy, or a standard deviation guy, or a strategy guy, any of those things.I am a gut-gamble guy, I look at the rules and scoring system and I let my gut lead the way....if I am high on somebody, it is usually because my eyes tell me so, not because of some set of stats or something, and therefore I will go after guys I like maybe a lot sooner than their ADP, and I will take chances in formats like this.
Lets get to it
Strategy: As you can probably tell, I didn’t really have one. But what I did have consisted of this, which is mostly a swing for the fence mentality:
1. I looked at the rules and besides the obvious TE stuff etc, one other thing stood out. DST scoring. If your DST pitched a shutout and held the other team under 200 yards of offense, the best you could do was 10 points for that (just 4 more than a TD and what are the odds that a DST gets all of those 10 points each week) Which meant that the rest of your points come basically from turnovers/sacks, and return TD’s, which besides sacks, are very hard to predict year to year. Your big weeks are probably when your DST takes one to the house in some way, otherwise I wouldnt think there is a ton of difference (could be very wrong here). So I knew going in, I wasn’t going to put a ton of emphasis on defense. I was going to target Cleveland late just to get the Cribbs factor. Didn’t pan out. Could be completely off base here, but that is what I was thinking. I also considered taking it to the extreme and only taking one, hoping to skate by the bye week.
2. I wasn’t going to be real concerned about week to week consistency. I gave more weight to guys that could blow up and carry me on any given week.
3. I wanted strong QBs as I think they alone can sometimes help you advance. If you are way behind at the QB position, I think it is tough to play catch up.
4. Wanted a solid TE and then to really forget about it.
5. Wanted to gamble on some up and coming/unproven players as opposed to taking guys that we know what we are going to get from week to week. (I know, probably not the best way to go).
The Draft: not real concerned about what spot I got, I think you can win any league from any spot.
1.10 - Randy Moss, NE, WR3: Having to start 3 WRs each week and being in the 10 spot I pretty much knew I was going WR here. This pick came down to Moss vs. Fitz. Warners retirement lead me to Moss. Moss will have Brady throwing him the ball, Fitz won’t.
2.07 - Jason Witten, DAL, TE3: As this pick got closer, I started liking the idea of pairing Moss with Marshall, but EBF took care of that two picks ahead of me, so I switched directions. I started looking at other options and could not get Witten’s 94 catches out of my head. In this format, he was a pretty easy pick here. By making this pick, I knew I had just passed on the top level QB’s and the RB’s would be really slim by the time it got back to me. I realized if I didn’t get a top TE, they also would not make it back to me. Taking a TE this early dictated a few things, one being, I will not pick another TE for a very long time, my eggs are in Wittens basket here, he either helps carry this team, or he kills it by getting injured or something.
3.10 - Matt Schaub, HOU, QB6: As this pick got closer, nothing at RB really excited me, even though I knew it was probably the direction I should head, but nothing looked great. Moreno?...nah..Grant?...nah, Benson?...nothing really jumping out at me. Took a look at the other drafts and saw guys like Brown falling pretty far and thought I could hit some homeruns later. So I shifted. Wanted to have solid options at QB, so pulled the trigger on Schaub I love the fact that he has Johnson and some other weapons and a shaky running game as it stands right now. I know a good running game can help the passing game, but at the same time, if you cant really run, you will throw. And with Schaub and Johnson, that is one of the strengths of the Houston team.
4.07 - Donovan McNabb, PHI, QB10: two QB’s in your first 4 picks taking a backup with your 4th pick? Not real sure what to say here. If I remember correctly I made this pick pretty late at night after having a few. Maybe should have just gone to bed.......or maybe not. Once again, nothing, I mean nothing, really excited me. So a couple of thoughts crept in, if I take McNabb here, I will be done with QB (and TE for that matter) and can focus the next several rounds on RB/WR. Looking at the other drafts made me think I could get away with this. Plus I know some other guys are probably sitting on McNabb as we move on. So the old, screw your neighbor strategy played in to this decision a little. Picking McNabb not only gives me a pretty solid option to chose from each week at a very important position, but it also keeps him off of somebody elses roster all year, and might in a backdoor way help me advance a week here or there. Probably the most pivotal round of the draft and I stray away from the safe direction. Huge gamble here, were tons of safer picks, but at this point, I am starting to feel like Dave Kingman instead of Rod Carew. Will see how this pans out .oh yeah, also just committed myself to RB wasteland.
5.10 - Jerome Harrison, CLE, RB26: Gotta start 2, gotta pick one eventually. Harrison proved he can carry the ball a ton and he is explosive. Many thought he should have been given his opportunity a long time ago. Not excited about him being the Refs bell cow, but Ill take it. He may not have the stuff to be an every down back all year, but Ill take my chances. As soon as I typed the words Schaub followed by McNabb, I knew this was the direction I was heading. Quantity over quality at this point from here on out. Ronnie Brown was going to be my pick here but Yellow took him the pick right before me. Might turn out to be a good thing.
6.07 - Terrell Owens, BUF, WR35: Back to the start 3 WR thing and I only have 1, so WR wins out over RB here. Was actually pretty excited to see TO, cant believe I just typed that. He fits my week to week boom or bust mentality. Only other WR that went prior to this pick that I would have jumped on would have been Garcon as I think he is the real deal and will lock down the #2 role in Indy. So EBF got me again two picks ahead. Moss/Owens/Witten, Ill take it. My RBs are gonna be hurtin.
7.10 - Jonathan Dwyer, ®, RB35: Damage control mode at this point, swing for the fences and hope this talented back lands in the right situation and contributes immediately. Odds of a RB coming in and producing early in the year are slim, but I hope Dwyer is the exception and that he lands in a good home.
8.07 - Devin Aromashodu, CHI, WR47: I really don’t have a ton to say here. I love this guy. This is one of those “trust your eyes/gut” pick. I think he is the real deal. I was going to get him on this team no matter what, so I may have picked him a round or two or more early. Not sure I can really say anymore to justify it, but this is a guy I will be targeting in every draft I am in.
9.10 - Laurence Maroney, NE, RB44: Trying to get some quantity at RB. I think Maroney is still very young and talented. He still runs with energy and power. With Taylor, Morris, Faulk, etc….looking at quite a few guys that are getting older. I know the Pats system does not usually equal great individual RB numbers, but if Maroney can start getting a little more of the load, he could be a high scorer on any given week. They may bring in some other guys, but I think Maroney still gets his piece of the pie on occasion in NE.
10.07 - Cadillac Williams, TB, RB49: Really liked this pick and was glad to see Caddy here. Was surprised he came back as well as he did last year. He adds a little stability to my RB’s. This wasn’t the most exciting or sexy pick at this point, but I was really happy to add Caddy here.
11.10 - Mario Manningham, NYG, WR65: Probably the other pick I am most happy about. He fits my boom or bust mentality perfectly and I think gives me 4 pretty strong potential homerun hitters each week at the WR position. I know he has competition for catches, but I think that may be a good thing in a survivor format as he will be on the field with some other talented WRs and may be able to make some big plays that can put you over the top on a week when you need it. Defenses wont key on him with the other guys on the field, and I think the NYGs will throw a ton.
12.07 - Demaryius Thomas, ®, WR72: Really high on this rookie and think he can make an impact right away no matter where he lands. I expect him to start right away even though he broke his foot. This is a gamble pick I felt I could make with the WRs I have on board already.
13.10 - Joe McNight, ®, RB56: Swingin for the fences mode in full affect. Another rookie RB gets added to the fold. Hoping to hit on one of these rookie RBs as their value will increase after the draft. If I can get a Clinton Portis type rookie year out of one of my rookie RBs I might be okay. If not, the McNabb pick will haunt me, but who cares Im having fun.
14.07 - Aaron Hernandez, ®, TE31: Taking a run at the record for most rookies on one team. When I took Witten I knew I would be waiting on my TE2. But also know with 2ppr you need to have some options. There were some other guys I looked at here and I may have made the mistake of watching his youtube highlight video. To me he is truly a pass catching TE and more of the hybrid type guy. That’s what I wanted with my TE2 pick, someone who is a playmaker and can run after the catch. There were safer picks here and other directions I could have gone, but that’s not how I roll.
15.10 - Matt Prater, DEN, K13: I hate this part of the draft. Serious thought after this that I should only go with one kicker because of my earlier gambles at other positions and my need to cover my ### with some depth. We'll see.
16.07 - Willie Parker, PIT, RB60: At the time I made this pick, he was my "hope the guy in front of him gets injured" pick. Also thought he might still have some solid weeks even in his current role.
17.10 - Olindo Mare, SEA, K25: At this point, the guys I am targeting to fill out my roster will probably still be there. As mentioned I thought about the one kicker strategy really hard, but realized, there will be times when I need a few consistent points. Kickers usually get that and this is good insurance in case something crazy happens. Seattle just used the franchise tag on Mare so his job security looks pretty safe. Was ok with this pick here and happy to have two pretty solid guys.
18.07-Oakland Raiders D30: They may end up being my only DST if somebody goes after 3 DST. Even if they dont, I may only go with one and roll the dice. Nothing to see here. If defense costs me advancement, I will live with that. To me these leagues are more about what we learn in other areas, not predicting what defense we think will be good.
19.10 Damian Williams WR Rookie: Needed to add another WR, saw guys like Camarillo, Crayton, Gage, Avant, B. Johnson, Jenkins, Mush etc still available. None of them seemed much different than the next. I know it is probably safe to try and pick a guy who will at least get you a few catches each week, but I decided to go for the unknown again and take a gamble on a rookie hoping he lands in a good situation and makes an impact. I guess the way I looked at it, Williams will probably at least put up the numbers that these other guys will, but his ceiling may be higher. We pretty much know what we will get from the other fellas, but maybe Williams busts out and gives me rookie year Eddie Royal or DJax numbers.
20.07 Detroit DST: Actually kind of struggled with this pick. Looked at my team and started hating my pick of Aaron Hernandez as my back up TE. Had been staring at Ben Watson for the last few rounds and almost pulled the trigger on him. I will be toast if something happens to Witten. Really hope Hernandez surprises me, because I will probably need him a few times even if Witten stays healthy. Also didn't like the fact that I only had 6 WR's and two of them were rookies, so I thought about pulling the trigger on one of the guys mentioned above. In the end I said screw it. Counting on the Raiders as my only option every week just sounded really pathetic. Actually thinking Detroit as a seconnd option was an improvement actually sounded even more pathetic, but in the end they won out. At least I will have two teams to chose from each week, and I started thinking that the odds of me actually using Detroit on any given week are probably a little better than me using a WR that I pick here. If my team makes it to Thanksgiving at least I will have something to cheer for during the first game of the day.
Grades:
QB: A- two pretty solid options
RB: F will kill this team
WR: B some potential here
TE: B- should have backed up Witten with proven vet
K: C whatever
D: F knew I was flunking this class going in
Overall: D+.........My QB's/WR's and Witten will need to carry this team..I HAVE to be right about Aromashodu......and a couple of my 5 rookies will have to pan out to even put up a respectable showing here.....not real happy, was pretty scattered, when you take chances your grade deserves to start low. I will be predicted to be one of the first guys to be eliminated and I am fine with that, because in this format even the team that everybody thinks is awesome, can be ousted the first week, so you never know. I learned quite a bit, so even though my final grade may not reflect it and I may get schooled...........I paid attention in class....
Good luck guys....
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Toads
Footballguy
OK.I'll bite.
Two guys in agreement is a rare edition....about almost any thing these days.
Just what was "so dissappointing about this draft"?
Through 19.02...........
Toads
Footballguy
They are there for a reason....they're roster fodder.
Just like Austin last year and Bryant the year before.
Toads
Footballguy
I went back in the aftermath and checked out the teams that made the final parings in each League. They had some common points:1) invariably, they had injuries and bombs from guys that didn't live up to their billings (injuries, team mate problems, OFF line problems, etc.) but they all had one thing in common....they all managed to find the needle in the hay stack that balanced the equation.
For every LenDale White that bombed (White led the NFL in TD's in '08), they had a late rounder that exceeded expectations.
2) They were lucky as several finalists just missed elimination in an early week, some moving on after a .05 point narrow miss.
3) They were balanced for bye weeks with the good teams making choices that avoided obvious conflicts before the bye weeks information was distributed. After the bye week distribution, it was a requirement; before the bye week information was available, it was avoiding the obvious conflicts.
4) Teams that had no stars riding the pine in Weeks #16 and #17 were the big winners. Picking Manning and Brees wins a lotta "atta-boys" but it doesn't get it in the final two weeks.
5) After that, a draft position analysis yielded a major advantage for the #16 draft slot. The #1 and #4 draft positions and the #15 draft postition also scored markedly better than other draft positions and better than there numerical percentage yield.
Other than that, it's #1 that counts and you are correct....finding a place for Miles Austin as an eighth rounder paid big dividends last year.
Maybe it's your guy, may be it's one of Menobrown's Rookies.....who knows for sure?
Only the Shadow!
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Yeah, I am actually really disappointed with myself that I didn't catch that Naanee was still available because he was someone I was looking at earlier and thought he might be a nice addition to my team. Nice selection BNB!!!!!Through 19.11........(less 19.05)........BassNBrew said:
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Killjoy, I was planning on riding them to the title.
FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR
5.06 - Joe Flacco, BAL, QB13
9.06 - Mark Sanchez, NYJ, QB23
10.11 - Matt Moore, CAR, QB28
- Nothing exceptional here, but IMO Flacco is ready to climb into the top 8 or so QBs, Sanchez will be a solid starter and Moore have a few very nice games. I went the "quantity over quality" route here (although I really do like Flacco), just hope it works.
1.06 - Steven Jackson, STL, RB5
6.11 - Steve Slaton, HOU, RB29
7.06 - Darren Sproles, SD, RB34
16.11 - Glen Coffee, SF, RB61
- this could make me or break me, in hindsight I probably would have taken more RBs earlier but I didn't like the value. If Gore gets injured and Sproles is the lead back, I'm in good shape. if the Steves miss time, I'm in trouble.
2.11 - Vincent Jackson, SD, WR11
4.11 - Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR19
8.11 - Davone Bess, MIA, WR49
12.11 - Kevin Walter, HOU, WR71
14.11 - Jordy Nelson, GB, WR79
18.11 - Deon Butler, SEA, WR80
19.06 - Mardy Gilyard, ®, WR84
- I really like my top 2 even though they're not the elites, Bess will continue to be a PPR machine, the rest are somewhat fliers with potential. Probably could have gone with a 5th RB instead of one of these later (4-7) WRs. Butler is one of my sleeper WRs for 2010, depending where Gilyard lands he should be a good slot WR (mocks around here have him in Cincy, NYJ, San Fran.. others have him headed to New England) maybe it's too much to expect but he could have a DeSean/Royal type rookie year, I see him having more ability to contribute immediately than many WRs that will be drafted earlier.
3.06 - Vernon Davis, SF, TE6
13.06 - Martellus Bennett, DAL, TE28
- VD can easily be the top 1-3 TE, Bennett can be decent but won't be special
15.06 - Dan Carpenter, MIA, K11
17.06 - Josh Brown, STL, K24
- We need kickers, these are two of them.
11.06 - Steelers, PIT, D1
- Went with a stud defense only because the value was there. I'm not sure the Steelers are the top D but they'll certainly be among the upper crust.
Overall I'm happy with this team, not overly excited but it has the potential to win this thing.
5.06 - Joe Flacco, BAL, QB13
9.06 - Mark Sanchez, NYJ, QB23
10.11 - Matt Moore, CAR, QB28
- Nothing exceptional here, but IMO Flacco is ready to climb into the top 8 or so QBs, Sanchez will be a solid starter and Moore have a few very nice games. I went the "quantity over quality" route here (although I really do like Flacco), just hope it works.
1.06 - Steven Jackson, STL, RB5
6.11 - Steve Slaton, HOU, RB29
7.06 - Darren Sproles, SD, RB34
16.11 - Glen Coffee, SF, RB61
- this could make me or break me, in hindsight I probably would have taken more RBs earlier but I didn't like the value. If Gore gets injured and Sproles is the lead back, I'm in good shape. if the Steves miss time, I'm in trouble.
2.11 - Vincent Jackson, SD, WR11
4.11 - Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR19
8.11 - Davone Bess, MIA, WR49
12.11 - Kevin Walter, HOU, WR71
14.11 - Jordy Nelson, GB, WR79
18.11 - Deon Butler, SEA, WR80
19.06 - Mardy Gilyard, ®, WR84
- I really like my top 2 even though they're not the elites, Bess will continue to be a PPR machine, the rest are somewhat fliers with potential. Probably could have gone with a 5th RB instead of one of these later (4-7) WRs. Butler is one of my sleeper WRs for 2010, depending where Gilyard lands he should be a good slot WR (mocks around here have him in Cincy, NYJ, San Fran.. others have him headed to New England) maybe it's too much to expect but he could have a DeSean/Royal type rookie year, I see him having more ability to contribute immediately than many WRs that will be drafted earlier.
3.06 - Vernon Davis, SF, TE6
13.06 - Martellus Bennett, DAL, TE28
- VD can easily be the top 1-3 TE, Bennett can be decent but won't be special
15.06 - Dan Carpenter, MIA, K11
17.06 - Josh Brown, STL, K24
- We need kickers, these are two of them.
11.06 - Steelers, PIT, D1
- Went with a stud defense only because the value was there. I'm not sure the Steelers are the top D but they'll certainly be among the upper crust.
Overall I'm happy with this team, not overly excited but it has the potential to win this thing.
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Toads
Footballguy
OK....please explain the "Control F" deal. How does this function account for players already choosen? I'm in this thread, I hit Contol F and then what? What is supposed to happen when I iniatiate "Control F"?
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Toads
Footballguy
OK....time to lay down a line or two.
Kudos to Stinkin Ref for his analysis of his team. When I asked the rehtorical question about what was "so dissappointing" about this draft I never expected an answer straight up. Well, it's obvious that Stinkin Ref got something out of this process that was in direct proportion to what he put into it. I'll leave it at that as what ever judgements are to be made about dissappointment and participation are up to those guys to develop that statement.
Back to FFB:
I. General Points
A. Firsterly, I began this process last year and it's real interesting to encounter the knowledge base that's here as you move through this process. If you are willing to pay attention, there are points that accrue from doing so.
B. Secondly, I did the deed that Roddy's doing herein, the keeping up of the roster Thread, in two of these deals last year. It's time consuming and it takes some diligence. The point here is that the guy doing this deed is in constant contact with the draft and it's flow and timing and it's real difficult to understand why it's not moving along when you leave and breath it.....so, that get's frustrating. For this exercise, the blizzard of '10 was a major factor as some guys were shut down for 36-48 hours (I suspect that's what's up with beachbum at the 19-20 turn).
C. Third: go to WSL-#1 and try to find the rosters compiled in one place. They may be there but I couldn't find them. Because I filled in in WSL-#2 (for GOBW), I knew where to find the rosters in that Draft and I think that #3 presented them as well. The point here is that Roddy's effort was top notch and he deserves a star on his forehead.
D. Forth, and as a general point of comparison to WSL-#2 where the guys were all hardened vet's and the drafting was tight and ruthless: this group seemed to leave a lot on the table and that was because of two themes:
1. It's early and the information curve is way up in the air. The landing spots are in limbo and the Rookie draft is a long
way off. Hence, NFL team strategies are not known and the depth chart's are in shambles....except for what's known
as seeming to be "the truth."
2. The Rookie curve was completely reversed in WSL-#2 as key rookies fell much later. Another general feeling was
that because the Rookies fell earlier, the guys that are tried and true RB's with some blemish on their information curve
were hanging around late. When BNB chided the group for leaving the '08 TD scoring leader on the board to the late
rounds, he was probably wondering just what good fortune befell him. Well, he was the beneficiary of "Rookie Fever"
big time, as were the all the guys that held off late on that tier of RB's.
E. In WSL-#2, the assembled drafters spent a liberal dose ot serious time critiquing each other's teams. When Pasquino and Bloom can shoe horn time out of their day to lay out their thoughts, we should be working to do the same. If you only do this for yourself, your not helping the other guy get better.
II. General Points About Draft Slot: Why Is The #16 Slot An advantage?
I've been doing this for a year so this is year #2 for me in this process. When I started out, it seemed a bit much to try to find the golden thread herein. Now, it's revealed it's self to me a bit more:
A. Advantage to the drafter is in direct proportion to draft position. When I first caught wind of the advantages at the turns, I began to watch and to try to figure out why. Example: if you are in the #2 turn position (32-33 pick, etc.), you can get shut out of an ace QB if there's a QB run. If you are in the #3 turn (48-49 pick, etc.) you are in prime position to pick up a QB at that turn. If you pass in the #16 slot at the 48-49 turn, you've done so for a specific and planed strategical reason when it comes to ace QB's. It seems like the advantage accruing to the #16 (and etc.) spot is because of their advantage in the QB derby although it can easily be argued that the ace QB at this turn can be riding pine come weeks #16 and #17. The guy in the #15-16 slots can pass on a QB at the first turn and still get a good one at the #3 turn and that seems to be the reason as most ace teams drafting low in the progression pick up a pretty good QB at that turn.
B. Advantage of The Long Range Gunner (LRG): StinkinRef said it best: I'm gonna draft Ashromogue in every League I participate in this year." Now, that works great unless someone get's there first. In the draft slots at the turns, the drafter has the advantage of long range perspective. If you are willing to wait 31 draft spots, 31 guys that you may have wanted to draft will be long gone. However, if you are really fixated on one guy and you know, for most likely for sure positive 100% accurately because you are in tune with the process....know that that guy's probably gonna be gone, well pull the trigger at the turn. That way, you get your man and every other guy that wanted Ashromogue is left holding the bag.
II. About This Team:
Toads
6.02 - Brett Favre, MIN, QB14
9.15 - Kyle Orton, DEN, QB26
14.02 - Tarvaris Jackson, MIN, QB35
3.15 - Ryan Grant, GB, RB17
4.02 - Pierre Thomas, NO, RB18
10.02 - Willis McGahee, BAL, RB45
17.15 - Jason Snelling, ATL, RB66
2.02 - Miles Austin, DAL, WR7
5.15 - Derrick Mason, BAL, WR30
8.02 - Mike Wallace, PIT, WR44
11.15 - Nate Washington, TEN, WR67
13.15 - Jabar Gaffney, DEN, WR78
18.02 - Brian Hartline, MIA, WR75
19.15 - Jason Avant, PHI, WR94
1.15 - Dallas Clark, IND, TE2
7.15 - Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, TE16
15.15 - Adam Vinatieri, IND, K16
12.02 - Eagles, PHI, D4
16.02 - Bengals, CIN, D19
20.02 - Buccaners, TBB, D31
III. Back to the salt mines about strategy:
A. Beacuse I was in touch with WSL-#2, I had a good feel for the QB progressions and I had a good feel for the Farve Curve. So, the Contrarian Position for Farve was an easy strategy to adopt. Brett has one more year on his contract, was a top five QB in every scoring system known to man and he's had a taste of the apple and knows that the team he's a leader on has a great shot to win one for the gipper. So, by intentionally adopting the contrarian position, I make out like a bandit when Farve comes back. But, if I draft Farve, I have to draft Tav Jackson and know when to draft him....if he's available when I pull the trigger......advantage to the Long Range Gunner.
B. Once I developed the strategy of the LRG, life was easy: I knew where to Draft Farve, I knew where to draft Jackson. from there, it's all value:
1. 1.15 is best player available and that was easy as Miles Austin is the real deal. I gave up on him in a money League last year for the flavor of the week and in Week #4 he had 52 points. The odd thing about that game was that he dropped two sure TD passes that closed out drives....he could scored in the 70's with those two catches.
2. Another easy choice as Dallas Clark is gold in this format. Only problem is he's a pine sitter in weeks #16-17 so I am looking to be all over another TE bargain.
3. Somehow, someway Ryan Grant falls to me at the next turn. Don't ask me why as I never figured he'd be there. Last year I wouldn't have touched him with a 10-footer but I've studied his line and I'm in tune with Grant's value.
4. Pierre Thomas is real good, in fact the best in the NFL, at breaking tackles (it's a fact).....so, he's easy money at the back end of turn #3.
5. At the 5.15 spot, it's the LRG again: I've got the pick of the litter for the Donald Driver's of the world and I need a steady guy. Mason is not the #36 ranked WR on my list but he'll be back (at the time he's being drafted that's an unknown) and he'll get the targets as he's the only Mohican in BAL. A round reach but I want Mason.
6. Oops....there's Farve. Better pull that trigger.
7. At the 7.15, there's the guy I want to make my day. Schiancoe is the perfect player: he's tied to the Farve deal and he's a hot prospect inside the red zone.....in fact, he's the prime RZ target in MIN whoever is the QB.....if I can just score jackson at the 13-14 turn. I take him going into the turn as I don't want to loose him.
8. The first tough pick of the draft: Mike Wallace is my waterloo. LRG is the only answer as I want this guy and I want him on the baskside of the turn.
9. Orton is the #6 QB in RZ success, he's in the same system next year....almost for sure and he's the best and obvious choice as a BUQB (I'm a Fronco watcher). He can't throw the ball down the field and he has his limits but he'll also sling's it a lot and he's got Clady working to keep him upright. I feel fortunate as it's Jason Cambell time after Orton and I'll take that side of that bet even though I'd also have been happy with Campbell.
10. McGahee is only there because he's got the unknown deal going. He's a stud and I'd reather have him than the runt of the litter. I'll be able to focus on WR's for a while after "reaching" for Willis.....again, the advantage of the LRG. Willis has gone much later and there are still some pretty good RB's avaialbe but I'm all over that reach.
11. Nate Washington is a targets choice....he get's the targets and he scores a couple (3-4) TD's but he's also a long range scorer type.....he'll have to do as a wR #4.
12. PHI-DEF is a reasonable choice on the backside of the turn....almost took NOS but I had them in WSL-#2 and PHI is a cold weather team. If I don't take a DEF here, I'll be stuck with the dregs.
13. Gafney is another choice base on targets and he's tied to Orton....I like the association as Jabar is under-rated and he's a favorite of the coaching staff.
14. Jackson at the backside of the turn is right where I have to take him. I try to talk myself outta him, take an extra hour to make sure I have to take him here and Stinkin Ref is all over me because ".....you were here and then gone....why didn't you pick?" Gotta love the Ref's commitment.
15. Vinateri isn't gonna win anything but he's indoors and steady and a true bargain at the #17 PK slot. Got him in WSL-#2 at the same position slot. A clearing pick....gotta do it or suffer the consequences.
16. CIN-DEF is backside of the turn. I've sorted the weekly point scorer's for week's #12-#17 in '09 and am comfortable with another cold weather choice; another clearing pick.
17. Now, down to business. Here's where it's to be won. This turn has to include a #6-WR and a #4-RB. I could have sprung for the RB in the last turn but I felt pretty strongly that my choices would be about the same group of guys being available as I see now. LenDale and Snelling and a coupla rookies. Hardesty was on my list only because some other guy took him in WSL-2. Preferred Snelling here as I believe somebody is gonna want him as an expensive FA acquisition.
18. I've spotted Brian Hartline and Jason Avant as being about dead equal and I'm thinking that they are both #60 WR's. I'm surprised to see them both available. I take Hartline because he's on MIA and Avant is bye week conflicted.
19. Talk about still surprised: Avant is a number 94-WR? Not!......but, he's a good risk as a #7-WR.
20. Lemme go check on beachbum. Pickum' cowboy: TBB-DEF, a safe choice as a #3 DEF.
OK....here's a bit from WSL-#2 regarding the stastical probabilities envolved with PK's and DEF's. There's a whole long string of a discussion that's waged in the WSL-#2 discussion thread about stastical probabilities:
Go read the WSL-#2 stuff....some good stuff there.....and laydown your team's here.
This should be a team capable of winning it all.....IF Farve returns and perhaps if he doesn't.
Kudos to Stinkin Ref for his analysis of his team. When I asked the rehtorical question about what was "so dissappointing" about this draft I never expected an answer straight up. Well, it's obvious that Stinkin Ref got something out of this process that was in direct proportion to what he put into it. I'll leave it at that as what ever judgements are to be made about dissappointment and participation are up to those guys to develop that statement.
Back to FFB:
I. General Points
A. Firsterly, I began this process last year and it's real interesting to encounter the knowledge base that's here as you move through this process. If you are willing to pay attention, there are points that accrue from doing so.
B. Secondly, I did the deed that Roddy's doing herein, the keeping up of the roster Thread, in two of these deals last year. It's time consuming and it takes some diligence. The point here is that the guy doing this deed is in constant contact with the draft and it's flow and timing and it's real difficult to understand why it's not moving along when you leave and breath it.....so, that get's frustrating. For this exercise, the blizzard of '10 was a major factor as some guys were shut down for 36-48 hours (I suspect that's what's up with beachbum at the 19-20 turn).
C. Third: go to WSL-#1 and try to find the rosters compiled in one place. They may be there but I couldn't find them. Because I filled in in WSL-#2 (for GOBW), I knew where to find the rosters in that Draft and I think that #3 presented them as well. The point here is that Roddy's effort was top notch and he deserves a star on his forehead.
D. Forth, and as a general point of comparison to WSL-#2 where the guys were all hardened vet's and the drafting was tight and ruthless: this group seemed to leave a lot on the table and that was because of two themes:
1. It's early and the information curve is way up in the air. The landing spots are in limbo and the Rookie draft is a long
way off. Hence, NFL team strategies are not known and the depth chart's are in shambles....except for what's known
as seeming to be "the truth."
2. The Rookie curve was completely reversed in WSL-#2 as key rookies fell much later. Another general feeling was
that because the Rookies fell earlier, the guys that are tried and true RB's with some blemish on their information curve
were hanging around late. When BNB chided the group for leaving the '08 TD scoring leader on the board to the late
rounds, he was probably wondering just what good fortune befell him. Well, he was the beneficiary of "Rookie Fever"
big time, as were the all the guys that held off late on that tier of RB's.
E. In WSL-#2, the assembled drafters spent a liberal dose ot serious time critiquing each other's teams. When Pasquino and Bloom can shoe horn time out of their day to lay out their thoughts, we should be working to do the same. If you only do this for yourself, your not helping the other guy get better.
II. General Points About Draft Slot: Why Is The #16 Slot An advantage?
I've been doing this for a year so this is year #2 for me in this process. When I started out, it seemed a bit much to try to find the golden thread herein. Now, it's revealed it's self to me a bit more:
A. Advantage to the drafter is in direct proportion to draft position. When I first caught wind of the advantages at the turns, I began to watch and to try to figure out why. Example: if you are in the #2 turn position (32-33 pick, etc.), you can get shut out of an ace QB if there's a QB run. If you are in the #3 turn (48-49 pick, etc.) you are in prime position to pick up a QB at that turn. If you pass in the #16 slot at the 48-49 turn, you've done so for a specific and planed strategical reason when it comes to ace QB's. It seems like the advantage accruing to the #16 (and etc.) spot is because of their advantage in the QB derby although it can easily be argued that the ace QB at this turn can be riding pine come weeks #16 and #17. The guy in the #15-16 slots can pass on a QB at the first turn and still get a good one at the #3 turn and that seems to be the reason as most ace teams drafting low in the progression pick up a pretty good QB at that turn.
B. Advantage of The Long Range Gunner (LRG): StinkinRef said it best: I'm gonna draft Ashromogue in every League I participate in this year." Now, that works great unless someone get's there first. In the draft slots at the turns, the drafter has the advantage of long range perspective. If you are willing to wait 31 draft spots, 31 guys that you may have wanted to draft will be long gone. However, if you are really fixated on one guy and you know, for most likely for sure positive 100% accurately because you are in tune with the process....know that that guy's probably gonna be gone, well pull the trigger at the turn. That way, you get your man and every other guy that wanted Ashromogue is left holding the bag.
II. About This Team:
Toads
6.02 - Brett Favre, MIN, QB14
9.15 - Kyle Orton, DEN, QB26
14.02 - Tarvaris Jackson, MIN, QB35
3.15 - Ryan Grant, GB, RB17
4.02 - Pierre Thomas, NO, RB18
10.02 - Willis McGahee, BAL, RB45
17.15 - Jason Snelling, ATL, RB66
2.02 - Miles Austin, DAL, WR7
5.15 - Derrick Mason, BAL, WR30
8.02 - Mike Wallace, PIT, WR44
11.15 - Nate Washington, TEN, WR67
13.15 - Jabar Gaffney, DEN, WR78
18.02 - Brian Hartline, MIA, WR75
19.15 - Jason Avant, PHI, WR94
1.15 - Dallas Clark, IND, TE2
7.15 - Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, TE16
15.15 - Adam Vinatieri, IND, K16
12.02 - Eagles, PHI, D4
16.02 - Bengals, CIN, D19
20.02 - Buccaners, TBB, D31
III. Back to the salt mines about strategy:
A. Beacuse I was in touch with WSL-#2, I had a good feel for the QB progressions and I had a good feel for the Farve Curve. So, the Contrarian Position for Farve was an easy strategy to adopt. Brett has one more year on his contract, was a top five QB in every scoring system known to man and he's had a taste of the apple and knows that the team he's a leader on has a great shot to win one for the gipper. So, by intentionally adopting the contrarian position, I make out like a bandit when Farve comes back. But, if I draft Farve, I have to draft Tav Jackson and know when to draft him....if he's available when I pull the trigger......advantage to the Long Range Gunner.
B. Once I developed the strategy of the LRG, life was easy: I knew where to Draft Farve, I knew where to draft Jackson. from there, it's all value:
1. 1.15 is best player available and that was easy as Miles Austin is the real deal. I gave up on him in a money League last year for the flavor of the week and in Week #4 he had 52 points. The odd thing about that game was that he dropped two sure TD passes that closed out drives....he could scored in the 70's with those two catches.
2. Another easy choice as Dallas Clark is gold in this format. Only problem is he's a pine sitter in weeks #16-17 so I am looking to be all over another TE bargain.
3. Somehow, someway Ryan Grant falls to me at the next turn. Don't ask me why as I never figured he'd be there. Last year I wouldn't have touched him with a 10-footer but I've studied his line and I'm in tune with Grant's value.
4. Pierre Thomas is real good, in fact the best in the NFL, at breaking tackles (it's a fact).....so, he's easy money at the back end of turn #3.
5. At the 5.15 spot, it's the LRG again: I've got the pick of the litter for the Donald Driver's of the world and I need a steady guy. Mason is not the #36 ranked WR on my list but he'll be back (at the time he's being drafted that's an unknown) and he'll get the targets as he's the only Mohican in BAL. A round reach but I want Mason.
6. Oops....there's Farve. Better pull that trigger.
7. At the 7.15, there's the guy I want to make my day. Schiancoe is the perfect player: he's tied to the Farve deal and he's a hot prospect inside the red zone.....in fact, he's the prime RZ target in MIN whoever is the QB.....if I can just score jackson at the 13-14 turn. I take him going into the turn as I don't want to loose him.
8. The first tough pick of the draft: Mike Wallace is my waterloo. LRG is the only answer as I want this guy and I want him on the baskside of the turn.
9. Orton is the #6 QB in RZ success, he's in the same system next year....almost for sure and he's the best and obvious choice as a BUQB (I'm a Fronco watcher). He can't throw the ball down the field and he has his limits but he'll also sling's it a lot and he's got Clady working to keep him upright. I feel fortunate as it's Jason Cambell time after Orton and I'll take that side of that bet even though I'd also have been happy with Campbell.
10. McGahee is only there because he's got the unknown deal going. He's a stud and I'd reather have him than the runt of the litter. I'll be able to focus on WR's for a while after "reaching" for Willis.....again, the advantage of the LRG. Willis has gone much later and there are still some pretty good RB's avaialbe but I'm all over that reach.
11. Nate Washington is a targets choice....he get's the targets and he scores a couple (3-4) TD's but he's also a long range scorer type.....he'll have to do as a wR #4.
12. PHI-DEF is a reasonable choice on the backside of the turn....almost took NOS but I had them in WSL-#2 and PHI is a cold weather team. If I don't take a DEF here, I'll be stuck with the dregs.
13. Gafney is another choice base on targets and he's tied to Orton....I like the association as Jabar is under-rated and he's a favorite of the coaching staff.
14. Jackson at the backside of the turn is right where I have to take him. I try to talk myself outta him, take an extra hour to make sure I have to take him here and Stinkin Ref is all over me because ".....you were here and then gone....why didn't you pick?" Gotta love the Ref's commitment.
15. Vinateri isn't gonna win anything but he's indoors and steady and a true bargain at the #17 PK slot. Got him in WSL-#2 at the same position slot. A clearing pick....gotta do it or suffer the consequences.
16. CIN-DEF is backside of the turn. I've sorted the weekly point scorer's for week's #12-#17 in '09 and am comfortable with another cold weather choice; another clearing pick.
17. Now, down to business. Here's where it's to be won. This turn has to include a #6-WR and a #4-RB. I could have sprung for the RB in the last turn but I felt pretty strongly that my choices would be about the same group of guys being available as I see now. LenDale and Snelling and a coupla rookies. Hardesty was on my list only because some other guy took him in WSL-2. Preferred Snelling here as I believe somebody is gonna want him as an expensive FA acquisition.
18. I've spotted Brian Hartline and Jason Avant as being about dead equal and I'm thinking that they are both #60 WR's. I'm surprised to see them both available. I take Hartline because he's on MIA and Avant is bye week conflicted.
19. Talk about still surprised: Avant is a number 94-WR? Not!......but, he's a good risk as a #7-WR.
20. Lemme go check on beachbum. Pickum' cowboy: TBB-DEF, a safe choice as a #3 DEF.
OK....here's a bit from WSL-#2 regarding the stastical probabilities envolved with PK's and DEF's. There's a whole long string of a discussion that's waged in the WSL-#2 discussion thread about stastical probabilities:
That's what I talking about, informed decision making and a Draft Dominator make for an easy choice: the TBB-DEF is an easy choice as I've done the week #12-#17 sort from '09 and learned that TBB had the #7 ranked DEF over that span. I can wrestle with the probabilities that Graham Gano can hold off Dave Rayner in WAS or I can play the sure thing: shooting for a third DEF gives me an honest shot at 20+ points/week and is the stastically sound play. It also deprives FUBAR of a #2 DEF and diminshes Stinkin Ref's choices to DET-DEF.
Go read the WSL-#2 stuff....some good stuff there.....and laydown your team's here.
This should be a team capable of winning it all.....IF Farve returns and perhaps if he doesn't.
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"Control F" brings up a search bar in Firefox (or a search window in Internet Explorer).......use it to search for a players name to see if the player has been drafted already.........pretty simpleThrough 20.03.....OK....please explain the "Control F" deal. How does this function account for players already choosen? I'm in this thread, I hit Contol F and then what? What is supposed to happen when I iniatiate "Control F"?
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HellToupee
Footballguy
"Control F" brings up a search bar in Firefox (or a search window in Internet Explorer).......use it to search for a players name to see if the player has been drafted already.........pretty simpleThrough 19.15........all caught up.....OK....please explain the "Control F" deal. How does this function account for players already choosen? I'm in this thread, I hit Contol F and then what? What is supposed to happen when I iniatiate "Control F"?
Control F does nothing on my MacBooknow if you're talking Command F thats 
FUBAR
Footballguy
search bar in chrome tooRuffrodys05 said:"Control F" brings up a search bar in Firefox (or a search window in Internet Explorer).......use it to search for a players name to see if the player has been drafted already.........pretty simpleThrough 20.03.....Toads said:OK....please explain the "Control F" deal. How does this function account for players already choosen? I'm in this thread, I hit Contol F and then what? What is supposed to happen when I iniatiate "Control F"?
EBF
Footballguy
QB Jay Cutler
QB Sam Bradford
Not a great group, but not necessarily a liability in a 16 team league either. Cutler is a solid QB1 in this format with legitimate top 5 upside. The new trend in the NFL is to make your rookie QB a starter from day one, so I'm hoping that whoever drafts Bradford will get him on the field immediately. He's not an ideal backup for me, but he could be adequate.
RB CJ Spiller
RB Tim Hightower
RB Jahvid Best
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Le'Ron McClain
I took Spiller several rounds above his ADP, but I'm okay with that. He was nice value as RB15. Hightower is the second best back on his own team, but he had a solid season in 2009 and he'll continue to play a big role in the offense. He's a much better receiver than Wells. Best should get on the field and contribute for whoever drafts him. He has a low floor as a RB3 in a 16 team league and a very big upside. Lynch should get some work even if the Bills don't trade him. McClain had a pretty good season in 2008. He gives me some emergency depth.
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Santana Moss
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Devery Henderson
WR Laurent Robinson
WR Malcolm Kelly
WR Donte Stallworth
Pretty good group. Marshall is a stud. Moss and Garcon are less reliable than the ideal survivor WR, but they should be pretty solid. Henderson will contribute the occasional big game. Robinson and Kelly have breakout potential. At the very least they should give me a couple good weeks. Stallworth was a nice find late in the draft. If he's in shape and ready to play, he'll outperform his draft slot. Overall a pretty nice combination of proven production and upside. My one concern is that I'm lacking a reliable depth guy who will catch 4-5 balls every week. Most of the guys below Marshall are feast-or-famine players.
TE Antonio Gates
TE Marcedes Lewis
Gates is possibly the single most valuable player in these leagues. Having his huge scores every week from the TE spot can help make up for a lot of weaknesses. Lewis is a good backup who should catch 35-45 balls again.
PK Sebastian Janikowski
PK John Kasay
Two reliable veteran kickers with good job security. Kasay is getting old, but he's still playing at a fairly high level.
DEF Titans
DEF Chiefs
The Titans have historically been a pretty good defensive team under Fisher. I'm hoping they step up next season. Kansas City can't get any worse then they were last year. Four games against the Raiders and Broncos should help. This is not an impressive duo, but I've still got two starting defenses that will score points every week.
OVERALL - This is a pretty spotty team on paper, but I think it has the potential to be surprisingly hard to kill. I've got a good group of triplets with Gates, Marshall, and Cutler. I've got a good stable of WRs and a scrappy group of backs with sneaky upside. I took a few rookies, but they're guys who can realistically contribute immediately. This could be a competitive team when it's all said and done.
QB Sam Bradford
Not a great group, but not necessarily a liability in a 16 team league either. Cutler is a solid QB1 in this format with legitimate top 5 upside. The new trend in the NFL is to make your rookie QB a starter from day one, so I'm hoping that whoever drafts Bradford will get him on the field immediately. He's not an ideal backup for me, but he could be adequate.
RB CJ Spiller
RB Tim Hightower
RB Jahvid Best
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Le'Ron McClain
I took Spiller several rounds above his ADP, but I'm okay with that. He was nice value as RB15. Hightower is the second best back on his own team, but he had a solid season in 2009 and he'll continue to play a big role in the offense. He's a much better receiver than Wells. Best should get on the field and contribute for whoever drafts him. He has a low floor as a RB3 in a 16 team league and a very big upside. Lynch should get some work even if the Bills don't trade him. McClain had a pretty good season in 2008. He gives me some emergency depth.
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Santana Moss
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Devery Henderson
WR Laurent Robinson
WR Malcolm Kelly
WR Donte Stallworth
Pretty good group. Marshall is a stud. Moss and Garcon are less reliable than the ideal survivor WR, but they should be pretty solid. Henderson will contribute the occasional big game. Robinson and Kelly have breakout potential. At the very least they should give me a couple good weeks. Stallworth was a nice find late in the draft. If he's in shape and ready to play, he'll outperform his draft slot. Overall a pretty nice combination of proven production and upside. My one concern is that I'm lacking a reliable depth guy who will catch 4-5 balls every week. Most of the guys below Marshall are feast-or-famine players.
TE Antonio Gates
TE Marcedes Lewis
Gates is possibly the single most valuable player in these leagues. Having his huge scores every week from the TE spot can help make up for a lot of weaknesses. Lewis is a good backup who should catch 35-45 balls again.
PK Sebastian Janikowski
PK John Kasay
Two reliable veteran kickers with good job security. Kasay is getting old, but he's still playing at a fairly high level.
DEF Titans
DEF Chiefs
The Titans have historically been a pretty good defensive team under Fisher. I'm hoping they step up next season. Kansas City can't get any worse then they were last year. Four games against the Raiders and Broncos should help. This is not an impressive duo, but I've still got two starting defenses that will score points every week.
OVERALL - This is a pretty spotty team on paper, but I think it has the potential to be surprisingly hard to kill. I've got a good group of triplets with Gates, Marshall, and Cutler. I've got a good stable of WRs and a scrappy group of backs with sneaky upside. I took a few rookies, but they're guys who can realistically contribute immediately. This could be a competitive team when it's all said and done.
Toads
Footballguy
The problem this early is the bye week deal. The problem with Rookies (and, for that matter any FA) is that you're stuck with the bye week conflict when it occures and you've dimished control of that. The Rookie curve.....one out of 4.5 Rookies play at a level that allows them to be rostered on re-draft teams, is not in your favor.If you end up with bye week conflicts with your top 5-6 players, you have to have a fall back and you've invested heavily in WR's as they are the strength of the team. If you can avoid a Cutler meltdown for 16 weeks, or a bye week conflict for Cutler with the other top five players on your team (Marshal, Gates, Spiller, Moss, Hightower) you've got a shot. Your fall backs are Best, Garcon, Henderson, and Lynch.
The truth is that your WR's may be strong enough to salvage the season as Laurent Robinson is the best WR in STL.
In the end though, it's most likely that bye weeks will kill you.
HellToupee
Footballguy
3.11 - Tony Romo, DAL, QB7
8.06 - Vince Young, TEN, QB18
I like this duo a lot. To me Romo as the 7th QB off the board is a bargain.
1.11 - Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, RB8
4.06 - Chris "Beanie" Wells, ARI, RB19
10.06 - Chester Taylor, MIN, RB48
13.11 - Toby Gerhart, ®, RB57
19.11 - Lex Hilliard, MIA, RB76
1st two are solid.Spindy should be a solid performer. I love Beanie , love him . I hope & need Chester to have a change of scenery . If he does end up on a different team he should be a steal. I like Gerhart and think he'll be more than a novelty player some pass him off to be. I liked what I saw from Hilliard last season and hope that he'll get some more pt nest season.
2.06 - Roddy White, ATL, WR9
5.11 - Percy Harvin, MIN, WR27
6.06 - Donald Driver, GB, WR34
9.11 - Jacoby Jones, HOU, WR54
12.06 - Mike Thomas, JAC, WR69
18.06 - Brandon Tate, NE, WR77
20.06 - Kevin Ogletree,Dal,WR92
I'm satisfied with this group . White is a stud ,Harvin comes with some risk & DD should be solid as a 3 . I'm sold on Jacoby Jones making a jump.If he doesn't then I could be in a bit of trouble .I think Thomas will be ok for me as my 5th. Tate scares me with that knee but if healthy he should get some decent playing time in NE.
7.11 - John Carlson, SEA, TE15
11.11 - Zach Miller, JAC, TE24
The Achilles' heel of my squad and will probably sink me early. Don't like having a weak TE group in this format. I need Carlson to play better than last season & need Miller to make an impact for the Jags
14.06 - Nate Kaeding, SD, K2
17.11 - Nick Folk, NYJ, K26
Kaeding is a top K . Folk is a bit of a gamble but it could payoff.
15.11 - Cardinals, ARI, D17
16.06 - Patriots, NE, D22
For the 17th & 22nd Ds off the board I'm pleased with the cardinals & the Patriots
8.06 - Vince Young, TEN, QB18
I like this duo a lot. To me Romo as the 7th QB off the board is a bargain.
1.11 - Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, RB8
4.06 - Chris "Beanie" Wells, ARI, RB19
10.06 - Chester Taylor, MIN, RB48
13.11 - Toby Gerhart, ®, RB57
19.11 - Lex Hilliard, MIA, RB76
1st two are solid.Spindy should be a solid performer. I love Beanie , love him . I hope & need Chester to have a change of scenery . If he does end up on a different team he should be a steal. I like Gerhart and think he'll be more than a novelty player some pass him off to be. I liked what I saw from Hilliard last season and hope that he'll get some more pt nest season.
2.06 - Roddy White, ATL, WR9
5.11 - Percy Harvin, MIN, WR27
6.06 - Donald Driver, GB, WR34
9.11 - Jacoby Jones, HOU, WR54
12.06 - Mike Thomas, JAC, WR69
18.06 - Brandon Tate, NE, WR77
20.06 - Kevin Ogletree,Dal,WR92
I'm satisfied with this group . White is a stud ,Harvin comes with some risk & DD should be solid as a 3 . I'm sold on Jacoby Jones making a jump.If he doesn't then I could be in a bit of trouble .I think Thomas will be ok for me as my 5th. Tate scares me with that knee but if healthy he should get some decent playing time in NE.
7.11 - John Carlson, SEA, TE15
11.11 - Zach Miller, JAC, TE24
The Achilles' heel of my squad and will probably sink me early. Don't like having a weak TE group in this format. I need Carlson to play better than last season & need Miller to make an impact for the Jags
14.06 - Nate Kaeding, SD, K2
17.11 - Nick Folk, NYJ, K26
Kaeding is a top K . Folk is a bit of a gamble but it could payoff.
15.11 - Cardinals, ARI, D17
16.06 - Patriots, NE, D22
For the 17th & 22nd Ds off the board I'm pleased with the cardinals & the Patriots
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cont......
Ref's last two picks:
19.10 Damian Williams WR Rookie: Needed to add another WR, saw guys like Camarillo, Crayton, Gage, Avant, B. Johnson, Jenkins, Mush etc still available. None of them seemed much different than the next. I know it is probably safe to try and pick a guy who will at least get you a few catches each week, but I decided to go for the unknown again and take a gamble on a rookie hoping he lands in a good situation and makes an impact. I guess the way I looked at it, Williams will probably at least put up the numbers that these other guys will, but his ceiling may be higher. We pretty much know what we will get from the other fellas, but maybe Williams busts out and gives me rookie year Eddie Royal or DJax numbers.
20.07 Detroit DST: Actually kind of struggled with this pick. Looked at my team and started hating my pick of Aaron Hernandez as my back up TE. Had been staring at Ben Watson for the last few rounds and almost pulled the trigger on him. I will be toast if something happens to Witten. Really hope Hernandez surprises me, because I will probably need him a few times even if Witten stays healthy. Also didn't like the fact that I only had 6 WR's and two of them were rookies, so I thought about pulling the trigger on one of the guys mentioned above. In the end I said screw it. Counting on the Raiders as my only option every week just sounded really pathetic. Actually thinking Detroit as a seconnd option was an improvement actually sounded even more pathetic, but in the end they won out. At least I will have two teams to chose from each week, and I started thinking that the odds of me actually using Detroit on any given week are probably a little better than me using a WR that I pick here. If my team makes it to Thanksgiving at least I will have something to cheer for during the first game of the day.
My QB's/WR's and Witten will need to carry this team..I HAVE to be right about Aromashodu......and a couple of my 5 rookies will have to pan out to even put up a respectable showing here.....
Good luck guys....
Ref's last two picks:
19.10 Damian Williams WR Rookie: Needed to add another WR, saw guys like Camarillo, Crayton, Gage, Avant, B. Johnson, Jenkins, Mush etc still available. None of them seemed much different than the next. I know it is probably safe to try and pick a guy who will at least get you a few catches each week, but I decided to go for the unknown again and take a gamble on a rookie hoping he lands in a good situation and makes an impact. I guess the way I looked at it, Williams will probably at least put up the numbers that these other guys will, but his ceiling may be higher. We pretty much know what we will get from the other fellas, but maybe Williams busts out and gives me rookie year Eddie Royal or DJax numbers.
20.07 Detroit DST: Actually kind of struggled with this pick. Looked at my team and started hating my pick of Aaron Hernandez as my back up TE. Had been staring at Ben Watson for the last few rounds and almost pulled the trigger on him. I will be toast if something happens to Witten. Really hope Hernandez surprises me, because I will probably need him a few times even if Witten stays healthy. Also didn't like the fact that I only had 6 WR's and two of them were rookies, so I thought about pulling the trigger on one of the guys mentioned above. In the end I said screw it. Counting on the Raiders as my only option every week just sounded really pathetic. Actually thinking Detroit as a seconnd option was an improvement actually sounded even more pathetic, but in the end they won out. At least I will have two teams to chose from each week, and I started thinking that the odds of me actually using Detroit on any given week are probably a little better than me using a WR that I pick here. If my team makes it to Thanksgiving at least I will have something to cheer for during the first game of the day.
My QB's/WR's and Witten will need to carry this team..I HAVE to be right about Aromashodu......and a couple of my 5 rookies will have to pan out to even put up a respectable showing here.....
Good luck guys....
Through 20.10.......
I'm shocked at the talent being left on the board. My list from last round is still clean 24+ picks later.
Spotty with some potential is correct. Last year the Moreno's, Brown's, Well's, Greene's, and Crabtree's weren't lighting it up for their owners. If you've figured out the rooks and have some luck with their landing spots you'll be competive. You'll also need some luck on the bye weeks when they come out. Overall Grade C-
2.09 - Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB2
6.09 - Carson Palmer, CIN, QB15
I like my combo here. Not as early as Stinkin Ref went but I did not want to be left with the garbage at end for a top scoring position. One of the best combos in the league and I give it an A
4.09 - Joseph Addai, IND, RB20
5.08 - Reggie Bush, NO, RB24
8.09 - LaDainian Tomlinson, FA, RB39
17.08 - Julius Jones, SEA, RB63
19.08 - LeGarrette Blount, ®, RB75
Okay this group is one of my weaker positions. I love Addai in the 4th over alot of guys drafted ahead of him. If he stays healthy than top 7 guy with catches also. Bush is all about the catches in PPR. But health is always a concern. LT I hope and feel goes to a place where he puts up top 30 numbers, top 20 or top 10 as a big plus and I win this thing. Jones was a blah pick but he might get some action and provide a few weeks. Blount was swinging for fences. I was not really paying attention near end and wish I had taken White in 18th and Dillard in 19th instead. Grade C
1.08 - Reggie Wayne, IND, WR2
3.08 - Anquan Boldin, ARI, WR15
10.09 - Malcom Floyd, SD, WR57
11.08 - Bernard Berrian, MIN, WR64
12.09 - Early Doucet, ARI, WR70
18.09 - Jarett Dillard, JAC, WR79
20.09 - Torry Holt, JAC, WR94
I like my 1-2 tandem as well as anyones in the league. I like my WR in PPR for sure. I think the rest of the crew could provide some nice punch here and there. I like Dillards chances to replace Holt over both Thomas and Williamson. Doucet could be a real surprise as I feel he more replaces Boldin in Arizona than Breaston does who is more like Fitz and could really surprise. Floyd/Berrian could make nice #3. Wish I had gotten another good one but that is the price you pay in 16 teamer Grade B+
7.08 - Dustin Keller, NYJ, TE14
9.08 - Brandon Pettigrew, DET, TE17
Okay I like this group but know it is not nearly acceptable in this format and could be the killer. I like both young players and feel they could provide me nice scoring. Grade C+
14.09 - Mason Crosby, GB, K3
15.08 - Jeff Reed, PIT, K12
One thing about PK. Is they are inconsistent from week to week and having 2 is key to get the 10 points per week. But there is so much change and getting 2 you can rely on is huge. Neither play in warm or inside but they are both good on good scoring teams. I like it Grade A
13.08 - 49ers, SF, D9
16.09 - Bills, BUF, D23
D. It is not great but not bad either. I like Stinkin Ref that perfect is only 10 pts. Of course I dont look at scoring very often to start and just go by whatever. Not like I prepare for these things in the end and just go by my guts. SF could have some big plays and Buffalo sucks expect for the DB's which seem to make big plays all the time for TD's. Grade B-
I think this team is rock solid in the end. Messed up down the line as I kept losing my sheets that I wrote on by the computer with preparation and forgot names than. Not that I spent much time in the end. This team with good running back play especially if LT can still play like I believe, than this Canadian can have more success here.
6.09 - Carson Palmer, CIN, QB15
I like my combo here. Not as early as Stinkin Ref went but I did not want to be left with the garbage at end for a top scoring position. One of the best combos in the league and I give it an A
4.09 - Joseph Addai, IND, RB20
5.08 - Reggie Bush, NO, RB24
8.09 - LaDainian Tomlinson, FA, RB39
17.08 - Julius Jones, SEA, RB63
19.08 - LeGarrette Blount, ®, RB75
Okay this group is one of my weaker positions. I love Addai in the 4th over alot of guys drafted ahead of him. If he stays healthy than top 7 guy with catches also. Bush is all about the catches in PPR. But health is always a concern. LT I hope and feel goes to a place where he puts up top 30 numbers, top 20 or top 10 as a big plus and I win this thing. Jones was a blah pick but he might get some action and provide a few weeks. Blount was swinging for fences. I was not really paying attention near end and wish I had taken White in 18th and Dillard in 19th instead. Grade C
1.08 - Reggie Wayne, IND, WR2
3.08 - Anquan Boldin, ARI, WR15
10.09 - Malcom Floyd, SD, WR57
11.08 - Bernard Berrian, MIN, WR64
12.09 - Early Doucet, ARI, WR70
18.09 - Jarett Dillard, JAC, WR79
20.09 - Torry Holt, JAC, WR94
I like my 1-2 tandem as well as anyones in the league. I like my WR in PPR for sure. I think the rest of the crew could provide some nice punch here and there. I like Dillards chances to replace Holt over both Thomas and Williamson. Doucet could be a real surprise as I feel he more replaces Boldin in Arizona than Breaston does who is more like Fitz and could really surprise. Floyd/Berrian could make nice #3. Wish I had gotten another good one but that is the price you pay in 16 teamer Grade B+
7.08 - Dustin Keller, NYJ, TE14
9.08 - Brandon Pettigrew, DET, TE17
Okay I like this group but know it is not nearly acceptable in this format and could be the killer. I like both young players and feel they could provide me nice scoring. Grade C+
14.09 - Mason Crosby, GB, K3
15.08 - Jeff Reed, PIT, K12
One thing about PK. Is they are inconsistent from week to week and having 2 is key to get the 10 points per week. But there is so much change and getting 2 you can rely on is huge. Neither play in warm or inside but they are both good on good scoring teams. I like it Grade A
13.08 - 49ers, SF, D9
16.09 - Bills, BUF, D23
D. It is not great but not bad either. I like Stinkin Ref that perfect is only 10 pts. Of course I dont look at scoring very often to start and just go by whatever. Not like I prepare for these things in the end and just go by my guts. SF could have some big plays and Buffalo sucks expect for the DB's which seem to make big plays all the time for TD's. Grade B-
I think this team is rock solid in the end. Messed up down the line as I kept losing my sheets that I wrote on by the computer with preparation and forgot names than. Not that I spent much time in the end. This team with good running back play especially if LT can still play like I believe, than this Canadian can have more success here.
Overall I like this team. Could have been one of my favorites if you have gone a different direction at RB. Should hang around for a while and with some luck contend. Overall Grade B/B+
6.14 - Matt Leinart, ARI, QB16
8.14 - David Garrard, JAC, QB20
9.03 - Alex Smith, SF, QB21
Hard to grade out this group. Having three supposed starters makes this an above average group. Rolling out three each week should make up for the lack of top end production. Last year Garrand and the SF QBs posted 11 weeks of 20+ point production. 9 of those weeks were 25+ point weeks. Leinart potential is the wildcard that could make this an elite group. I only see five teams I'd trade QBs with. Grade B-
1.03 - Ray Rice, BAL, RB3
5.03 - Felix Jones, DAL, RB23
7.03 - Marion Barber III, DAL, RB33
18.14 - LenDale White, TEN, RB70
Probably the second or third best RB stable in the league with menobrown taking top honors. I've got my stud and Jones/Barber will easily combine to be a strong RB2 in this league with upside for RB1 numbers. Both were absolute steals where they were drafted. Here's hoping Fatdale goes back to 2008 numbers. Chris Johnson can't continue with the insane numbers of touches. Biggest weakness is the potential for Dallas and Baltimore to share a bye week. That said, I was drafting to win and going any deeper at RB would be a waste most every week with the top end talent I had secured. Grade B+
2.14 - DeSean Jackson, PHI, WR12
3.03 - Sidney Rice, MIN, WR14
4.14 - Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR21
11.03 - Nate Burleson, SEA, WR62
13.03 - Josh Morgan, SF, WR73
19.03 - Legedu Naanee, SD, WR83
I Favre comes back, look out. Two middleish WR1s with a very solid WR2 with that has WR1 upside. Burleson was basically larceney where I got him...2009 #34 WR drafted at WR62. Nothing better than getting a WR3 in the 11th round. Morgan finished 53rd last year was another bargain at WR73. Naanee is a longshot roll of the dice. Likely won't crack into my lineup, but has the QB throwing to him that allows for upside. There are about 4-5 guys that give my WR corps a run for the money for top spot in the league, but I think I just nudge them out. Grade A
10.14 - Todd Heap, BAL, TE22
17.03 - Dante Rosario, CAR, TE33
20.14 - Bo Scaife, TEN TE34
How can I soft coat the fact that this trio isn't scaring anyone? Actually I got very lucky to even have a group this good given the lack of draft capital I spent on them. First of all, Heap finished last year at #13. If he can repeat, I won't be giving up too much ground to the field. I you guys hadn't left him hanging out there I would have been royally screwed. Scaife and Rosario finished 20th and 31st last year. Starting three most weeks should cover some of my weakness. Grade F
14.14 - Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K5
15.03 - Ryan Longwell, MIN, K9
Two very good kickers with solid holds on their jobs. Grade A
12.14 - Cowboys, DAL, D7
16.14 - Seahawks, SEA, D24
Looks like an average D1 and D2 to me. Grade C
This draft came together perfectly for me. I saw a lot of value fall to me and it fell at precisely the time I needed to fill that position. Luck plays a huge role in these drafts and I certainly got my fair share. I'm well above average at the QB/RB/WR/K positions. TE while not being great probably won't be enough of an abortion to hinder my chances. A lot of things can change between now and Setember kickoff, but this team should be one of the top 4 scoring teams this year and a contender for the survivor title.
8.14 - David Garrard, JAC, QB20
9.03 - Alex Smith, SF, QB21
Hard to grade out this group. Having three supposed starters makes this an above average group. Rolling out three each week should make up for the lack of top end production. Last year Garrand and the SF QBs posted 11 weeks of 20+ point production. 9 of those weeks were 25+ point weeks. Leinart potential is the wildcard that could make this an elite group. I only see five teams I'd trade QBs with. Grade B-
1.03 - Ray Rice, BAL, RB3
5.03 - Felix Jones, DAL, RB23
7.03 - Marion Barber III, DAL, RB33
18.14 - LenDale White, TEN, RB70
Probably the second or third best RB stable in the league with menobrown taking top honors. I've got my stud and Jones/Barber will easily combine to be a strong RB2 in this league with upside for RB1 numbers. Both were absolute steals where they were drafted. Here's hoping Fatdale goes back to 2008 numbers. Chris Johnson can't continue with the insane numbers of touches. Biggest weakness is the potential for Dallas and Baltimore to share a bye week. That said, I was drafting to win and going any deeper at RB would be a waste most every week with the top end talent I had secured. Grade B+
2.14 - DeSean Jackson, PHI, WR12
3.03 - Sidney Rice, MIN, WR14
4.14 - Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR21
11.03 - Nate Burleson, SEA, WR62
13.03 - Josh Morgan, SF, WR73
19.03 - Legedu Naanee, SD, WR83
I Favre comes back, look out. Two middleish WR1s with a very solid WR2 with that has WR1 upside. Burleson was basically larceney where I got him...2009 #34 WR drafted at WR62. Nothing better than getting a WR3 in the 11th round. Morgan finished 53rd last year was another bargain at WR73. Naanee is a longshot roll of the dice. Likely won't crack into my lineup, but has the QB throwing to him that allows for upside. There are about 4-5 guys that give my WR corps a run for the money for top spot in the league, but I think I just nudge them out. Grade A
10.14 - Todd Heap, BAL, TE22
17.03 - Dante Rosario, CAR, TE33
20.14 - Bo Scaife, TEN TE34
How can I soft coat the fact that this trio isn't scaring anyone? Actually I got very lucky to even have a group this good given the lack of draft capital I spent on them. First of all, Heap finished last year at #13. If he can repeat, I won't be giving up too much ground to the field. I you guys hadn't left him hanging out there I would have been royally screwed. Scaife and Rosario finished 20th and 31st last year. Starting three most weeks should cover some of my weakness. Grade F
14.14 - Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K5
15.03 - Ryan Longwell, MIN, K9
Two very good kickers with solid holds on their jobs. Grade A
12.14 - Cowboys, DAL, D7
16.14 - Seahawks, SEA, D24
Looks like an average D1 and D2 to me. Grade C
This draft came together perfectly for me. I saw a lot of value fall to me and it fell at precisely the time I needed to fill that position. Luck plays a huge role in these drafts and I certainly got my fair share. I'm well above average at the QB/RB/WR/K positions. TE while not being great probably won't be enough of an abortion to hinder my chances. A lot of things can change between now and Setember kickoff, but this team should be one of the top 4 scoring teams this year and a contender for the survivor title.
Avant was drafted. Without looking at the rosters I'd assume I'm as weak at WR as anyone and I did look at all of those players. But if I look at it in terms of the last WR I picked, Jacoby Ford, I'd rather gamble that he might be worth something as a rook over the fact that group of players has shown either nothing or very very limited upside. I strongly considered Jenkins over Ford as well as Crayton who went right after I took Ford. If Jenkins can keep his starting job no reason to not think he can't give you 50 catches again so he had a degree of dependability on his side and I'd say if I knew he was assured of remaining a starter I probably would have taken him over Ford. IMO the other guys are a poo-poo platter of WR's. Gage had his chance to be the starter and lost it. Assuming everyone is healthy he looks to be no better than the 3rd WR on the team but no better than 5th option in the passing game on a run orientated team. Johnson was in a great spot playing opposite Calvin and did nothing with it. After 7 seasons he has shown himself to be someone who won't catch a high rate of targets or have any consistency. Heyward Bey- 9 catches in 40 targets is one of the most disgusting percentages I've ever seen and it can't be all blamed on the QB play because Schilens was near 60% on the catch rate. Now compare Heyward Bey to Ford who I picked last. Both are fast as heck and Ford's last two years he displayed similar numbers to Heyward Bey. One of them I already know sucks in the NFL and while the other one might suck I thought I'd rather have the guy who has not already shown he's terrible on the next level and I also did not want to have both Raider Wr's. I guess at this point I'd just rather go with someone whose potential is unknown versus players who have shown to be less than impressive already.
I thought the Scaife pickup was huge for you as I think he is a great grab for a TE needy team. In general you did pounce on good value at the right time. Felix, Barber, Burleson, and Morgan were all outstanding value picks. It seems like a solid deep team to me with the only real concerns being you don't have any marquee guys at QB/TE with the question being is what you have going to be enough? I think you are fine at QB and while even with Scaife I see your team near the bottom of the TE production I think you have at other positions to offset it.
I agree with you in theory, but the reality is that Jenkins will likely outproduce 7 out of the 10 Fords drafted. A lot depends on the make up of your roster. owners with boom-bust guys at the top end could use a guy like Jenkins with owners with consistent producers with lower ceilings should definately be swinging for the fences. Guys like Austin and Bryant were in the ranks of the poo-poo and passed over in previous years. Even after one year of suckiness, a guy like Bey has to have more potential than half of the rookies drafted.
Toads
Footballguy
Don't get too excited about Heyward Bey: 40 targets, 9 catches = 22.5 percent catch rate.At that rate, he needs 200 + targets to make 50 catches.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR, round by round with hindsight. My hindsight picks aren't meant to be an alternate total draft, unless otherwise noted each pick is assuming all other 19 were the same.
1.06 - FUBAR - Steven Jackson, STL, RB5
Wanted a stud RB picking here, considered Gore and Turner along with Jackson. Went with the guy I think has better upside but almost regretted it immediately.
Hindsight pick: Gore
2.11 - FUBAR - Vincent Jackson, SD, WR11
Wanted a WR if a decent #1 fell, one did. Also considered DeSean here.
Hindsight pick: VJ
3.06 - FUBAR - Vernon Davis, SF, TE6
In this format, having a stud TE is important, didn't really like the RBs or WRs here, considered Grant and Schaub
Hindsight pick: VD
4.11 - FUBAR - Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR19
After weighing the options, I figured QB (Eli) or WR (MSW, Maclin or Crabtree) were the best options, hoping Felix would drop another round.
Hindsight pick: Felix Jones
5.06 - FUBAR - Joe Flacco, BAL, QB13
Needed a QB, after some of the QBs I had hoped would fall didn't, I took the guy I think has the best upside. Flacco was a top 10 QB the first half of 2009, rumors have Baltimore going after a stud WR. We'll see if it happens but I like this kid.
Hindsight pick: Flacco
6.11 - FUBAR - Steve Slaton, HOU, RB29
Didn't take full account of the injury risk here, Slaton has great potential but this pick worries me. Not a good way to start at RB, two guys I don't trust to make it 16 games. I highly considered Kenny Britt but needed a RB.
Hindsight pick - Justin Forsett, but Britt if I had taken Felix
7.06 - FUBAR - Darren Sproles, SD, RB34
At this point my RBs are looking weak, figured even if Sproles left he'd be part of a RBBC.
Hindsight pick -Sproles, maybe Hightower
8.11 - FUBAR - Davone Bess, MIA, WR49
I like Bess in PPR, figure he'll be a solid addition and will score as my #3 many weeks. Considered Garrard and Henne here, figured I could take other QBs later.
Hindsight pick - Bess
9.06 - FUBAR - Mark Sanchez, NYJ, QB23
Really wanted Henne here even though it would make a QB2/WR3 bye week. Sanchez could surprise me. Considered Freeman and Cassel here.
Hindsight pick - still not sure, probably Cassel.
10.11 - FUBAR - Matt Moore, CAR, QB28
QBs went off the board last round and I didn't have a warm and fuzzy about the position. Moore has good potential. Considered Cribbs here.
Hindsight pick - Moore
11.06 - FUBAR - Steelers, PIT, D1
Had zero inclination to take a stud D but they just fell too far. Considered James Davis and Berrian here.
Hindsight pick - would have taken the RB, Davis.
12.11 - FUBAR - Kevin Walter, HOU, WR71
Just took the WR I figure has a chance to score once in awhile, uninspired pick.
Hindsight pick - If I took Davis instead of Pitt, Ravens D.
13.06 - FUBAR - Time Out - Martellus Bennett, DAL, TE28
Waited awhile on TE2, I figure Bennett has good skill even if he is the #2 TE in town. Considered his brother Earl.
Hindsight pick - Bennett, but only out of necessity.
14.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Jordy Nelson, GB, WR79
As my late WRs, I wanted talented young guys with great QBs. Jordy is one.
Hindsight pick - Nelson
15.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Dan Carpenter, MIA, K11
Got to have a kicker, right? Could have waited but we did have a run. Considered a few kickers here.
Hindsight pick - probably would take Reed, but it's not an issue.
16.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Glen Coffee, SF, RB61
As previously stated, I'm not thrilled with my RBs. If Gore were injured, I believe Coffee could fill in very well. Even if he isn't I figure he'll have a few nice weeks.
Hindsight pick - Coffee
17.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Josh Brown, STL, K24
A bit of a rush pick, could have waited and took a RB I like despite being behind the best in the business.
Hindsight pick - Ringer
18.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Deon Butler, SEA, WR88
Wanted a long-shot WR with potential to light it up on any play. Got one. I considered Weaver and should have taken him probably.
Hindsight pick - Weaver
19.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Mardy Gilyard, ®, WR92
Don't know why but I wanted a rookie. I think he'll be a decent slot WR his rookie year depending on the team, not quite DeSean/Royal level but good.
Hindsight pick - maybe Damian Williams or Shawn Nelson
20.11 - FUBAR - Aaron Brown, DET, RB79
Figured a longshot RB was in order here.
Hindsight pick - If I were comfortable with my RBs, I would have taken Scaife.
1.06 - FUBAR - Steven Jackson, STL, RB5
Wanted a stud RB picking here, considered Gore and Turner along with Jackson. Went with the guy I think has better upside but almost regretted it immediately.
Hindsight pick: Gore
2.11 - FUBAR - Vincent Jackson, SD, WR11
Wanted a WR if a decent #1 fell, one did. Also considered DeSean here.
Hindsight pick: VJ
3.06 - FUBAR - Vernon Davis, SF, TE6
In this format, having a stud TE is important, didn't really like the RBs or WRs here, considered Grant and Schaub
Hindsight pick: VD
4.11 - FUBAR - Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR19
After weighing the options, I figured QB (Eli) or WR (MSW, Maclin or Crabtree) were the best options, hoping Felix would drop another round.
Hindsight pick: Felix Jones
5.06 - FUBAR - Joe Flacco, BAL, QB13
Needed a QB, after some of the QBs I had hoped would fall didn't, I took the guy I think has the best upside. Flacco was a top 10 QB the first half of 2009, rumors have Baltimore going after a stud WR. We'll see if it happens but I like this kid.
Hindsight pick: Flacco
6.11 - FUBAR - Steve Slaton, HOU, RB29
Didn't take full account of the injury risk here, Slaton has great potential but this pick worries me. Not a good way to start at RB, two guys I don't trust to make it 16 games. I highly considered Kenny Britt but needed a RB.
Hindsight pick - Justin Forsett, but Britt if I had taken Felix
7.06 - FUBAR - Darren Sproles, SD, RB34
At this point my RBs are looking weak, figured even if Sproles left he'd be part of a RBBC.
Hindsight pick -Sproles, maybe Hightower
8.11 - FUBAR - Davone Bess, MIA, WR49
I like Bess in PPR, figure he'll be a solid addition and will score as my #3 many weeks. Considered Garrard and Henne here, figured I could take other QBs later.
Hindsight pick - Bess
9.06 - FUBAR - Mark Sanchez, NYJ, QB23
Really wanted Henne here even though it would make a QB2/WR3 bye week. Sanchez could surprise me. Considered Freeman and Cassel here.
Hindsight pick - still not sure, probably Cassel.
10.11 - FUBAR - Matt Moore, CAR, QB28
QBs went off the board last round and I didn't have a warm and fuzzy about the position. Moore has good potential. Considered Cribbs here.
Hindsight pick - Moore
11.06 - FUBAR - Steelers, PIT, D1
Had zero inclination to take a stud D but they just fell too far. Considered James Davis and Berrian here.
Hindsight pick - would have taken the RB, Davis.
12.11 - FUBAR - Kevin Walter, HOU, WR71
Just took the WR I figure has a chance to score once in awhile, uninspired pick.
Hindsight pick - If I took Davis instead of Pitt, Ravens D.
13.06 - FUBAR - Time Out - Martellus Bennett, DAL, TE28
Waited awhile on TE2, I figure Bennett has good skill even if he is the #2 TE in town. Considered his brother Earl.
Hindsight pick - Bennett, but only out of necessity.
14.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Jordy Nelson, GB, WR79
As my late WRs, I wanted talented young guys with great QBs. Jordy is one.
Hindsight pick - Nelson
15.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Dan Carpenter, MIA, K11
Got to have a kicker, right? Could have waited but we did have a run. Considered a few kickers here.
Hindsight pick - probably would take Reed, but it's not an issue.
16.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Glen Coffee, SF, RB61
As previously stated, I'm not thrilled with my RBs. If Gore were injured, I believe Coffee could fill in very well. Even if he isn't I figure he'll have a few nice weeks.
Hindsight pick - Coffee
17.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Josh Brown, STL, K24
A bit of a rush pick, could have waited and took a RB I like despite being behind the best in the business.
Hindsight pick - Ringer
18.11 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Deon Butler, SEA, WR88
Wanted a long-shot WR with potential to light it up on any play. Got one. I considered Weaver and should have taken him probably.
Hindsight pick - Weaver
19.06 - FUBAR - (4HR) - Mardy Gilyard, ®, WR92
Don't know why but I wanted a rookie. I think he'll be a decent slot WR his rookie year depending on the team, not quite DeSean/Royal level but good.
Hindsight pick - maybe Damian Williams or Shawn Nelson
20.11 - FUBAR - Aaron Brown, DET, RB79
Figured a longshot RB was in order here.
Hindsight pick - If I were comfortable with my RBs, I would have taken Scaife.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'll go back to the old logo after the TV draft is rolled up, it's an inside joke over there. Part of the reason for posting hindsight picks is seeing how we could improve and whether the immediate hindsight actually is better than the original pick, it very well might not be.FUBAR goes for the new logo and lays out the "Hindsight" analysis.In retrospect, consider keeping the old logo and don't look back.
You don't get mulligans in this deal; they just reside on other guys rosters.
