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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (1 Viewer)

If GB planned on having Jones, they would have tagged him, UNLESS they think he's going to have a cold market and his price tag will come down if he goes to FA. 

As a fins fan, I hope we don't sign him. And I don't think it's as likely as the roto blurbs suggest. He's a big upgrade to their RB room, but giving a bunch of guaranteed money to an almost 27 year old RB is almost always bad business. Plus Miami's been pretty smart with using premium assets for premium positions the last 2 offseasons.

Not saying it won't happen, I jut think a team like the Jets is more likely to give him the best contract. 

 
Miami would be smart to sign him, and then its just another  mid 1st round pick they can use to continue their rebuild instead of taking a RB as everyone has mocked. 

 
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ffmail4me said:
Miami would be smart to sign him, and then its just another  mid 1st round pick they can use to continue their rebuild instead of taking a RB as everyone has mocked. 
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I don't think it's very likely that they use a 1st on a RB either. That's just mock drafters connecting dots based on what a couple (not very reliable) Miami beat writers have said. 

 
Snorkelson said:
I think you need to reevaluate Dillon. He was running against 8-9-10 man boxes when the qb was injured, and still produced- a lot. Good character guy too. Wasn’t a receiving threat in college and was working on his hands prior to the draft because that was an area he didn’t have much experience. I was pretty high on him last year and am really looking forward to him having an opportunity. 
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Yeah that's a problem. I'm not really interested in that in FF. Generally. I'd rather have Damien Harris in like the 10th.

 
Snorkelson said:
I think you need to reevaluate Dillon. 
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I will, though, crazy not to. I thought he looked pretty good but if he isn't getting receptions or blocking for Rodgers in passing situations (which ought to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd down, oh and 4th and 8 in the NFC Title Game), then I'm just not into it. I love Derrick Henry but I'm going to take the under on the comp.

 
We're talking Dillon in the Jones thread and Jones in the Dillon thread.

Kind of funny. Not sure where to put that what I saw of Dillon he's an underrated receiver, especially the very difficult and nice catch he made against TN this year. But he's no Jones in the passing game. I seem to think that the Packers gave Jones the best offer he'll see, and that the Packers are planning on matching anything other teams throw out there unless it's ridiculous for a 27 year-old back.

Also, to bring somebody else in from the blue. I have no idea how Jones is rated ahead of Zeke in dynasty. I'm a little disposed to value Zeke more because I have him, but on age alone, Jones should have a ding or two against him. Or are we convinced the workload finally got to Zeke's only okay athleticism and explosion?

 
barackdhouse said:
I will, though, crazy not to. I thought he looked pretty good but if he isn't getting receptions or blocking for Rodgers in passing situations (which ought to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd down, oh and 4th and 8 in the NFC Title Game), then I'm just not into it. I love Derrick Henry but I'm going to take the under on the comp.
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He didn’t do it in college because their qb room was decimated. It’s not that he can’t do it, he’s never had the opportunity.

 
barackdhouse said:
Better than Jones? Carson or Fournette? No way. And who would be better suited to hit the ground running in the GB offense? Mind boggling. 

I think this is what happens, not unlike in FF, when management puts too much emphasis on value and not enough on winning. 
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Huh? Who said anything about it having to be a FA RB? I specifically said WR in my speculation, but they may be thinking save that $8M to put toward defense or some other position.

 
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rockaction said:
I have no idea how Jones is rated ahead of Zeke in dynasty. I'm a little disposed to value Zeke more because I have him, but on age alone, Jones should have a ding or two against him. Or are we convinced the workload finally got to Zeke's only okay athleticism and explosion?
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I don't know that I'd have Jones ahead of Zeke, but I don't trust Zeke to have juice even as long as the normal RB, and it's not so much due to workload. More due to the load he seems to put on his liver in the offseason. 

 
menobrown said:
AJ Dillon owners can party down now, but I sure don't understand what Green Bay is thinking here.
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Worried about a holdout, most likely. They probably don't want a disgruntled back. Or, sometimes when a team does something stupid it's doing just that...something stupid.

 
I think the truth about Dillon lies somewhere in between Snorkelson and barackdhouse. Dillon utterly lit up the athletic portions of the combine, and both speed and burst scores are somewhat good predictors of RB1 success in the NFL for guys that find themselves with reasonable draft capital. Guy was like 97th in speed and burst scores. That's legit athleticism. This is no flunky here when it comes to that. I wouldn't sell him that short.

 
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Have both AJ’s in my league of record. Happy GB didn’t tag Jones, he deserves his shot at a true lead role and frankly I’m sick of the #freeAaronJones BS in GB.  It also opens up the shot for Dillon to see if he can show with any consistency what he’s flashed (though I’m convinced GB signs JW to a deal instead of letting him walk and it’s a true split).  

 
Buckna said:
Huh? Who said anything about it having to be a FA RB? I specifically said WR in my speculation, but they may be thinking save that $8M to put toward defense or some other position.
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You're right I missed that part. Yeah I think that is the most likely scenario actually. I would probably take a (presumably) cheaper Fournette or Carson if it meant being able to snag Golladay or such. If that is the play I would probably be on board. 

Still would be far dumber than just taking a couple top young WRs last year and riding Jones into the sunset of this window. But oh well. If Dillon really does become an every down back then I will obviously be very wrong. 

 
dkp993 said:
Have both AJ’s in my league of record. Happy GB didn’t tag Jones, he deserves his shot at a true lead role and frankly I’m sick of the #freeAaronJones BS in GB.  It also opens up the shot for Dillon to see if he can show with any consistency what he’s flashed (though I’m convinced GB signs JW to a deal instead of letting him walk and it’s a true split).  
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I think this is a highly, highly likely scenario.

 
rockaction said:
I think the truth about Dillon lies somewhere in between Snorkelson and barackdhouse. Dillon utterly lit up the athletic portions of the combine, and both speed and burst scores are somewhat good predictors of RB1 success in the NFL for guys that find themselves with reasonable draft capital. Guy was like 97th in speed and burst scores. That's legit athleticism. This is no flunky here when it comes to that. I wouldn't sell him that short.
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Yes and I have to acknowledge the 2nd round capital as well. It speaks volumes as does letting Jones walk. 

 
Buckna said:
Only thing I can think of is maybe GB has a prize FA they are targeting and need the $, maybe a WR (that they should have drafted last year instead)?
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barackdhouse said:
Better than Jones? Carson or Fournette? No way. And who would be better suited to hit the ground running in the GB offense? Mind boggling.
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I was wondering this too.... how much money will they have for FA's?  Golladay makes a lot of sense for them and would make letting Jones walk much more palatable.  Hell, if I'm AR, I'm not sure I don't rather Dillon/Adams/Golladay over Jones/Adams/?

 
Holdouts are extremely punitive now, I doubt he was willing to do that considering how little money he’s made so far. The training camp fines alone are ridiculous at 50k a day and can’t be waived.

 
rockaction said:
Worried about a holdout, most likely. They probably don't want a disgruntled back. Or, sometimes when a team does something stupid it's doing just that...something stupid.
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rockaction said:
It's like I'm on mute here... :kicksrock:
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 I won't leave you hanging but yes I think a possible holdout was a factor. I was critical of GB for not tagging him, and still am, but a I think we had a few things at play:

1. As you mentioned possible holdout. @Buckna just commented on this but I'd point out to your post Buckna that the fines would not apply until he signed the tag. He's not be considered a holdout until that time. The loss of money matters, roughly $500,000 a game so I doubt he'd take it to max 10 games out before he reported but easy to see a holdout bleeding into the season, then injury risk, etc, etc.

2. Organization philosophy for reasons I'm not clear on exactly why the Pack just don't like to use the tag. It's been about 10 years since they did and I want to say they are the last team to have done it, not 100 on that.

3. A beat writer for the Packers has been saying for weeks that Rosenhaus "would never allow" the franchise tag to be put on Jones.  A few people asked him to clarify that and he just said Rosenhaus would use his leverage to sway his clients from Green Bay if they tried to franchise him. I don't know about that but Aaron Jones did switch to Rosenhaus in December. Also with respect to item 2 above, the organizational approach to not wanting to use the tag, this would be a reason I would speculate. I'm not knocking Green Bay but I was wondering if the franchise feels need to be more player friendly in their dealings to be able to get more players to want to play in Green Bay.

So I think a few things were at play, but I still don't agree with the decision.

 
Buckna said:
Holdouts are extremely punitive now, I doubt he was willing to do that considering how little money he’s made so far. The training camp fines alone are ridiculous at 50k a day and can’t be waived.
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I agree. But are we sure the Packers aren't stupid enough to believe the threat? Because I kind of think they are.

 
Buckna said:
Holdouts are extremely punitive now, I doubt he was willing to do that considering how little money he’s made so far. The training camp fines alone are ridiculous at 50k a day and can’t be waived.
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No fines if he doesn't sign the tender. 

 
Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites

#Packers Aaron Jones is going to get big money. Jets, Dolphins logical suitors. More than a Running Back. Best playmaker on the market. You can move him all over an offense and he’s a threat. If money is comparable, I’d take Jones over Golladay & the other WRs.
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https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1369481585616187394?s=21
 

Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites

For #Jets overpaying Aaron Jones isn’t a problem. I’d rather have Jones at $14M than Crowder at $10M+. With Jones, you can build a 2 back offense with heavy motion. Get WR in the Deebo Samuel mold in draft. Sign mid tier WRs that block to complement Jones.
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https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1369482282923360257?s=21

 
menobrown said:
2. Organization philosophy for reasons I'm not clear on exactly why the Pack just don't like to use the tag. It's been about 10 years since they did and I want to say they are the last team to have done it, not 100 on that.
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In my opinion the Packers prefer to use 2 RB for their offense and they dont really want one guy to be their feature RB and they dont want to pay a RB what they would have to if he were such a good RB.

I do think Aaron Jones is a good RB. I dont think he is better than Elliot as mentioned upthread in rankings, but I do think he is the best RB Green Bay has had since Ahman Green.

The basis for my perspective about this is from studying the draft. They doubled up on two different RB in Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin in 2013. Franklin got injured so that part never got realized and they likely leaned on Lacy more than they wanted to. 

Lacy did not see a 2nd contract and they doubled down in 2017 on Williams and Jones in the 4th and 5th rounds respectively. While Jones has been the better RB Green Bay still liked to use both of them anyways.

Now these 2 RB contracts are up and the Packers are not going to pay top $ to a RB. They already planned ahead for this when they selected AJ Dillon.

Now do I think Aaron Jones gives the Packers the best chance to win of all other RB options they have? Yes I think so, but I just dont think RB is a high enough priority for them and I also dont think they want to be paying an older RB who could fade at any time as did happen with Ahman Green previously.

I think they plan to replace the RBs every 4 years with fresh blood and a 2nd round pick is the most they will invest in one.

While Jones may be a phenomenal RB maybe Green Bay sees him as more a product of their system or beneficiary of supporting cast around him.

I will let you all decide if this organizational philosophy has merit or not. Just saying that this is how I see them handling the position.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I really don't think Joe Douglass is going to hand a big contract to a RB - it goes against everything he has been saying about building through the draft. Obviously I can't say it won't happen, but I doubt it.
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Chad Forbes' Twitter takes don't seem to match the current reality of the Jets situation, no. Of course, that could be just wishful thinking on my part and they go sign him anyway, but I also doubt it. They're probably gonna use the cap room for offensive line and a receiver and edge rusher. That's my guess.

 
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Snorkelson said:
I think you need to reevaluate Dillon. He was running against 8-9-10 man boxes when the qb was injured, and still produced- a lot. Good character guy too. Wasn’t a receiving threat in college and was working on his hands prior to the draft because that was an area he didn’t have much experience. I was pretty high on him last year and am really looking forward to him having an opportunity. 
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This guy gets it. Jones is a talented, but oft injured RB who will be overpaid 

 
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