2017 FBG Subscriber Contest is LIVE

[Tennessee_ATO 405]

31 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Yeah, you're right.  Not sure why the discrepancy with the live scorer.  Either way, with the live scorer I'm in and with the official FBG, I'm out at #251. 

I'm THAT guy in the final week.

Dude, that sucks. 

[-OZ- 7,876]

26 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Hunt, despite being a non-factor since early-season, is on 225 rosters. So he has to be the guy most likely to be on the winning roster just by simple probability.

What player(s), excluding Hunt, is (are) most likely to be on the winning roster and why?

Robby Anderson. 

On 109 roosters.

Has been performing like a wr1 the last month or so

Cost $3, leaving plenty to spend elsewhere

Broncos, saints and chargers aren't necessarily the easiest schedule but he can do well against those 3

[menobrown 3,725]

37 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Hunt, despite being a non-factor since early-season, is on 225 rosters. So he has to be the guy most likely to be on the winning roster just by simple probability.

What player(s), excluding Hunt, is (are) most likely to be on the winning roster and why?

Kamara due to being on 74 teams and on fire.

[-OZ- 7,876]

1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Kamara due to being on 74 teams and on fire.

I don't like this answer but yeah.

The 30 teams with Anderson and Kamara are in a really good position.

[msudaisy26 5,903]

I haven't looked up any ownership, but I have to think that these guys have to come alive for me to make a dent. 

Winston - hopefully he doesn't eat any w's. 

Crowell - there might be a sliver of hope here with Gordon back. 

Abdullah - not going to hold my breath. 

Goodwin - Garcon is out and Jimmy G. Looked good. 

Ginn - need a timely bomb or 2

 

[gianmarco 28,031]

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

I don't like this answer but yeah.

The 30 teams with Anderson and Kamara are in a really good position.

I would have made it 31

[Tennessee_ATO 405]

I hope Rivers keeps targeting the hell out of Allen. And that Wallace keeps being involved in Baltimore. I hope to get Rishard and Benjamin back this week. WR "should" be ok for me.

But I'm a guy who really needs Hunt to start contributing. I have Kamara. After that it's: a poo-poo platter of Hunt, Powell, Abdullah, Smallwood, and McFadden (ret). 

[madzff 19]

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

I don't like this answer but yeah.

The 30 teams with Anderson and Kamara are in a really good position.

Hi.  You can count me out of this group as I have crap QBs and David Johnson.  

 

Let's call it 29.

[gianmarco 28,031]

@David Dodds

Ok, I found out why there's a discrepancy and I may have a shot.

Live scoring has Seahawks defense with 5 pts.

FBG scoring has them with 7 pts.

In the game there was 1 INT and 3 sacks which is 5 pts.  There was the fumble out of the endzone but that is not a recovery so the scoring should be 5 pts.  I've looked at official stats as well as scoring in other leagues and they do not have a fumble recovery credited.

Let's get this clarified!

Edited December 5, 2017 by gianmarco

[gianmarco 28,031]

This entry has Seahawks with 7 pts scored, for example.

And this is the entry that has 165.4 with 7 pts from the Seahawks but would miss the cut if they score 5 pts and I slide into 250th. == http://calcomatic.com/EntryLive/100391

Edited December 5, 2017 by gianmarco

[-OZ- 7,876]

13 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

@David Dodds

Ok, I found out why there's a discrepancy and I may have a shot.

Live scoring has Seahawks defense with 5 pts.

FBG scoring has them with 7 pts.

In the game there was 1 INT and 3 sacks which is 5 pts.  There was the fumble out of the endzone but that is not a recovery so the scoring should be 5 pts.  I've looked at official stats as well as scoring in other leagues and they do not have a fumble recovery credited.

Let's get this clarified!

These two have 7 from Seattle, and it matters.

247. Entry 100391 165.40

248. broncofan83 165.1

 

27 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I would have made it 31

13 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I hope Rivers keeps targeting the hell out of Allen. And that Wallace keeps being involved in Baltimore. I hope to get Rishard and Benjamin back this week. WR "should" be ok for me.

But I'm a guy who really needs Hunt to start contributing. I have Kamara. After that it's: a poo-poo platter of Hunt, Powell, Abdullah, Smallwood, and McFadden (ret). 

It's good to hear others have weaknesses still.  

[Tennessee_ATO 405]

Just now, -OZ- said:

 

It's good to hear others have weaknesses still.  

Glad I could help. 

[gianmarco 28,031]

Just now, -OZ- said:

These two have 7 from Seattle, and it matters.

247. Entry 100391 165.40

248. broncofan83 165.1

Yep.

The rules clearly state fumble recovery and there was not a fumble recovery.  I feel pretty comfortable that this should be fixed but we shall see.  Crazy that something like this matters.

[gianmarco 28,031]

Still waiting to hear back on emails sent....

Hoping for good news. 

Everywhere I've looked shows no fumble recovery.  No league I'm in has them scored with a recovery including MFL and FFPC. And the official NFL Bible for stats says it's not considered a recovery if it goes out of bounds or out of endzone for a touchback. With the contest rule stating fumble recovery, I can't see how it's not changed, but who knows....

[BassNBrew 10,592]

53 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Still waiting to hear back on emails sent....

Hoping for good news. 

Everywhere I've looked shows no fumble recovery.  No league I'm in has them scored with a recovery including MFL and FFPC. And the official NFL Bible for stats says it's not considered a recovery if it goes out of bounds or out of endzone for a touchback. With the contest rule stating fumble recovery, I can't see how it's not changed, but who knows....

Congrats dude!

[Steeler 2,860]

7 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Still waiting to hear back on emails sent....

Hoping for good news. 

Everywhere I've looked shows no fumble recovery.  No league I'm in has them scored with a recovery including MFL and FFPC. And the official NFL Bible for stats says it's not considered a recovery if it goes out of bounds or out of endzone for a touchback. With the contest rule stating fumble recovery, I can't see how it's not changed, but who knows....

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this fumble through the end-zone discrepancy came up earlier in the year and the play was counted as 2 points for the defense.  I'll have to update the SEA score on Calcomatic.  Sorry man 

[gianmarco 28,031]

2 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this fumble through the end-zone discrepancy came up earlier in the year and the play was counted as 2 points for the defense.  I'll have to update the SEA score on Calcomatic.  Sorry man 

I saw, in week 6. But was it actually brought up with FBG? It should not be counted as 2 points and perhaps they will update their scoring system.

[Steeler 2,860]

Just now, gianmarco said:

I saw, in week 6. But was it actually brought up with FBG? It should not be counted as 2 points and perhaps they will update their scoring system.

It was discussed then and I had to change the score to reflect the results of the play by adding 2 pts to the defensive team.

[gianmarco 28,031]

7 minutes ago, Steeler said:

It was discussed then and I had to change the score to reflect the results of the play by adding 2 pts to the defensive team.

[Joe Bryant 10,309]

19 hours ago, gianmarco said:

@David Dodds

Ok, I found out why there's a discrepancy and I may have a shot.

Live scoring has Seahawks defense with 5 pts.

FBG scoring has them with 7 pts.

In the game there was 1 INT and 3 sacks which is 5 pts.  There was the fumble out of the endzone but that is not a recovery so the scoring should be 5 pts.  I've looked at official stats as well as scoring in other leagues and they do not have a fumble recovery credited.

Let's get this clarified!

 

Thanks @gianmarco    Our Doug Drinen is looking at this for you. Doug is the Commish of the contest and makes the final call. He let me know this morning he's out for most of today but will be back this evening. He'll post something here by 10pm tonight with clarity. Apologies for the delay but Doug will have a ruling on this tonight. Thanks.

[Joe Bryant 10,309]

8 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Still waiting to hear back on emails sent....

Hoping for good news. 

Everywhere I've looked shows no fumble recovery.  No league I'm in has them scored with a recovery including MFL and FFPC. And the official NFL Bible for stats says it's not considered a recovery if it goes out of bounds or out of endzone for a touchback. With the contest rule stating fumble recovery, I can't see how it's not changed, but who knows....

Hi @gianmarco   Did you send an email to Doug? He has responded to every email. 

[gianmarco 28,031]

1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

Hi @gianmarco   Did you send an email to Doug? He has responded to every email. 

I did, yesterday at noon. Also sent one to Dodds shortly afterward. That's why I was surprised I hadn't heard back from either. 

[Joe Bryant 10,309]

2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I did, yesterday at noon. Also sent one to Dodds shortly afterward. That's why I was surprised I hadn't heard back from either. 

He didn't receive them apparently as Doug said just now he's responded to every email he's seen on this. I'll ask him to look again.

[gianmarco 28,031]

Joe, just sent a PM.  I'm happy to forward the email where you need to show the time it was sent if need be. 

Of note, here's the summary of why I think it should change:

1)  The contest rules section clearly states 2 pts for fumble recovery (not forced fumble or fumbles lost, etc.).  There was not a fumble recovery on the play in question (fumble out of the endzone for touchback)

2)  This is the NFL guidebook for stats -- On pages 26 and 27 it defines fumbles and fumble recoveries.  The relevant section states :

Note that there must be “recovery” for every fumble charged except for fumbles that go out of bounds.

This situation isn't considered a fumble recovery for the defense.  It's considered a lost fumble without a recovery.  The defense doesn't get credit for this since no points are scored and it's a touchback.

3)  Every league I'm in has it scored without crediting the fumble.  This includes FFPC as well as any MFL league.  There isn't even a setting to allow it to be scored unless you change it to forced fumbles.  However, the contest rules clearly state fumble recovery.

4)  This is a rare occurrence.  It happened back in week 6 with the ASJ TD changed to a fumble and touchback.  However, just because it's been scored that way before doesn't mean it shouldn't be changed to be more accurate scoring, IMO.  No one may have brought it up earlier (I have no idea), but hopefully this can be fixed (either the scoring or changing the rule section for the contest).

With it being the very last week and missing out by 1 spot by 0.1 points, I figured I'd give it all I have to keep going   

Edited December 6, 2017 by gianmarco

[Tennessee_ATO 405]

I'll cast my vote for letting everyone who would have qualified under either scenario in. Then clarify the rule whichever way. Adding a couple more will only reduce my odds from 0.4% to 0.3968%. I'm cool w/ that. 

[gianmarco 28,031]

2 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I'll cast my vote for letting everyone who would have qualified under either scenario in. Then clarify the rule whichever way. Adding a couple more will only reduce my odds from 0.4% to 0.3968%. I'm cool w/ that. 

That's what I advocated for as well in my email.  Considering the scoring change affects 2 people either way, bump the # to 252 for the final 3 weeks and then clarify for next year either way.  I think it's the most equitable way as I don't want to bump anyone but also feel like I should be in.

Edited December 6, 2017 by gianmarco

[menobrown 3,725]

My squad has a lot of dead money, the good players are to commonly owned and I don't have enough of them to think my team is explosive enough for me to seriously dream of pulling off what would go down in my opinion as the greatest feat in the history of FF. Nice dream, just  not one rooted in reality.

But, if I were to have any sliver of hope I think it rests with Donte Moncrief suddenly and inexplicably coming to life. This due to my team is not overly deep and I'm the last Moncrief team left.

 

 

[Jed 283]

1 hour ago, gianmarco said:

That's what I advocated for as well in my email.  Considering the scoring change affects 2 people either way, bump the # to 252 for the final 4 weeks and then clarify for next year either way.  I think it's the most equitable way as I don't want to bump anyone but also feel like I should be in.

Seems fair to me. 2 more teams to finish ahead of me. 

[Joe Bryant 10,309]

Thanks @gianmarco   Apologies for us not replying back quickly. 

Doug Drinen will get on this tonight and make a clear call. Thanks.

 

[Doug Drinen 33]

After much discussion, the official ruling is that Seattle's defense should get 5 points, not 7. The standings have been re-run and re-posted to reflect the correction, which changes the status of four teams.

The one and only criterion used to make this decision was: what ruling follows the rules, as written, most closely. The rules literally say "Fumble recovery," and Seattle did not have one. About the fact that this happened earlier in the season and was counted differently, this too is covered in the rules. 

Quote

All stat changes made by the league prior to 11:59pm ET Tuesday will be incorporated into the contest scoring and standings reflecting these changes will be posted on Wednesday morning. Users have until 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday to report possible scoring errors to drinen@footballguys.com. The standings posted on Thursday morning are considered official, even if an error (by the league, by Footballguys, or by anyone or anything else) is later discovered.

Had the earlier error been pointed out at the time, we would have corrected it. This one was, so we did.

I can completely understand how frustrating this must be for two people in particular, just as I can understand how frustrating it would have been (and was!) for two other people. Again, our sole goal was to follow our own rules as written.

Thanks for your patience with this, and our apologies for any stress caused.

 

 

[gianmarco 28,031]

[Jed 283]

10 minutes ago, Doug Drinen said:

After much discussion, the official ruling is that Seattle's defense should get 5 points, not 7. The standings have been re-run and re-posted to reflect the correction, which changes the status of four teams.

The one and only criterion used to make this decision was: what ruling follows the rules, as written, most closely. The rules literally say "Fumble recovery," and Seattle did not have one. About the fact that this happened earlier in the season and was counted differently, this too is covered in the rules. 

Had the earlier error been pointed out at the time, we would have corrected it. This one was, so we did.

I can completely understand how frustrating this must be for two people in particular, just as I can understand how frustrating it would have been (and was!) for two other people. Again, our sole goal was to follow our own rules as written.

Thanks for your patience with this, and our apologies for any stress caused.

 

 

Seems to me like you made the right call Doug.

Congrats to gianmarco!

[Steeler 2,860]

Way to go gianmarco!!!

[BassNBrew 10,592]

Will be interesting to follow the two other teams. Congrats gianmarco on advancing

[BassNBrew 10,592]

16 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I'll cast my vote for letting everyone who would have qualified under either scenario in. Then clarify the rule whichever way. Adding a couple more will only reduce my odds from 0.4% to 0.3968%. I'm cool w/ that. 

Fbg can't risk this. If either of those two finish first then fbg is on the hook for paying up every other person who gets bumped down in the final standings

[-OZ- 7,876]

8 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Glad it worked out.

Just looking at a few players, Melvin Gordon and Gurley are going to be my keys. I'm the only team left with both. 

13 of us have Cooks and Hogan, that could be decent especially for week 14 without gronk.

But if Ertz is out, I'm in trouble at TE with Jimmy playing the jags and fleener out (not that he's done much this year).  

Plus my QBs are among the worst right now with Stafford hurt and Mariota not performing well stat-wise. 

Giddy up.

[Joe Bryant 10,309]

7 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Fbg can't risk this. If either of those two finish first then fbg is on the hook for paying up every other person who gets bumped down in the final standings

Correct @BassNBrew . Making a call on how a play is scored is one thing. But allowing more people in than the rules state is fundamentally changing the structure of the game. We can't do that. 

Good luck Folks. 

[Rhythmdoctor 1,463]

@gianmarco I will be rooting for you since I was knocked out this week. You would make for an incredible comeback story!

[Steeler 2,860]

BTW, I'll get the calcomatic setup with the final 250 before tonight's game starts.

[Liquid Courage 8]

1st time ever for the Brewcity Bombers in the 250. In fact, don't think I've ever made it past Week 10 in all the years playing this. 

Not unique enough lineup to pull this off. seems like there's always 2 or 3 players that go off each of the last 3 weeks to propel the winner. And i don't see anyone on my roster doing that. 

It's exciting still, though!

Good luck to all still left. 

[gianmarco 28,031]

On 12/5/2017 at 10:27 AM, -OZ- said:

I don't like this answer but yeah.

The 30 teams with Anderson and Kamara are in a really good position.

31

The crazy thing was looking through the standings on FBG and live scorer to find discrepancy. It was like the 80th place team didn't match up and I went through each player until I finally noticed the difference in Seattle score. 

Seriously, the back and forth of "emotions" the last couple days. Great start with Dallas D, then Kelce, then the slow night with Ertz getting hurt and sweating it out the last night going back and forth right at the cut, going to bed being #250, waking up at #251, and finally learning last night that I'm back in.

With Kamara, Anderson, and Kelce being highly productive lately along with rare ownership, I feel like I could make some noise.  Marvin Jones and Dion Lewis as well to a lesser extent. 

Anyway, good luck to all... Been a fun and crazy ride so far.

[BassNBrew 10,592]

The small rosters have always done poorly in the first phase, but this is the first year they've been so atrocious that they've been swamped in the final 250.

Looking at the 9 remaining 18 man teams,

- 2 have DJ

- 3 have Cook, one of those has Rodgers

- 1 has Gronk

- Out of 117 weeks of scoring, as a group they've broken 200 8 times.

[BassNBrew 10,592]

roster / entities / teams alive

18 3590 9

19 1657 8

20 1334 4

21 1212 13

22 1053 16

23 910 17

24 819 21

25 654 21

26 547 33

27 446 27

28 360 31

29 334 13

30 588 40

[BassNBrew 10,592]

The 8 19 man teams look better as a whole.  1 DJ owner, 2 Cook owners, 1 other with a bunch of dead money.  They appear to be riding on the backs of Julio and Brown with crowd favorites like Ertz, Graham, and Anderson bringing them along.

[BassNBrew 10,592]

The 4 20 man rosters have two Cook owners and one Gronk owner.  

[Steeler 2,860]

CALCOMATIC is ready to go for the final 250 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Steeler

[Steeler 2,860]

6 hours ago, gianmarco said:

The crazy thing was looking through the standings on FBG and live scorer to find discrepancy. 

So if you win I should get a portion of the winnings, right

In all seriousness, I'm rooting for you because that would be an awesome ending to the crazy ride you've been on the last few days.

[gianmarco 28,031]

11 minutes ago, Steeler said:

So if you win I should get a portion of the winnings, right

In all seriousness, I'm rooting for you because that would be an awesome ending to the crazy ride you've been on the last few days.

If I take 1st, you are getting a cut for sure.

[Steeler 2,860]

I added a "gianmarco" link to the Live section of the menu at calcomatic so we can all follow your (hopefully epic) journey through the next 3 weeks 

[dusty 0]

1st time making the 250 cut, best prior was bounced in week 12 two years ago. Best of luck to all of us lucky few, we are all going to need lady fortune on our side for these last 3 weeks.