JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would be very surprised if he is drafted in early to mid first round of dynasty drafts, but I would be ecstatic if it does. That would mean a better player falls to me hopefully. I personally believe he's a dud.
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RB Zack Moss, CIN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I think RB's 1-5 are super jumbled. I can make a case for Moss as RB1, but it really depends where these guys end up, because they all have very different skill sets.
If a team wants a chain mover, whose only hole is big-play ability they should take Moss. If they want a big play runner, and are ok with a zero in the passing game, they should take Taylor. If they want a slightly less big play runner, but a non-zero in the passing game they should take Dobbins. If they want a pass catcher they should take Edwards-Helaire. If they want a slightly lesser pass catcher, but more explosive player, they'll take Swift.
If a team wants a chain mover, whose only hole is big-play ability they should take Moss. If they want a big play runner, and are ok with a zero in the passing game, they should take Taylor. If they want a slightly less big play runner, but a non-zero in the passing game they should take Dobbins. If they want a pass catcher they should take Edwards-Helaire. If they want a slightly lesser pass catcher, but more explosive player, they'll take Swift.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Just spit-balling, but I think he'll end up being a 1st round rookie pick in most leagues - mixed in with the early drafted recievers. A lot of people insist on taking running backs with their 1sts.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I don't pretend to have all the answers, but it's a possible explanation as to why he ran a lot faster. I know most players have better times on their pro days, but not by .13, that's pretty significant. And it was electronically timed which gives it a little more credibility.
I agree about the whole hamstring excuse seeming fishy. It's like a go to for guys who run bad. But the dog might really eat your homework sometimes.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll never understand the "he's making up the hamstring thing" thing. It's almost like people forget that there is a range of severity to injuries.
Yes he might have fibbed about it. He also might have been telling the truth. There is *zero* evidence to be calling this kid a liar. As a former athlete the idea of pushing through a minor injury for what is perceived to be an incredibly important set of measurements seems totally likely.
It is also possible that sitting out for a minor tweak would look bad to a scout. "What? He is slow *and* injured or soft?"
I'm not saying he is fast but FFS there is *zero* basis to call him a liar. That's all.
Yes he might have fibbed about it. He also might have been telling the truth. There is *zero* evidence to be calling this kid a liar. As a former athlete the idea of pushing through a minor injury for what is perceived to be an incredibly important set of measurements seems totally likely.
It is also possible that sitting out for a minor tweak would look bad to a scout. "What? He is slow *and* injured or soft?"
I'm not saying he is fast but FFS there is *zero* basis to call him a liar. That's all.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
For those that are calling him a liar - It is a fishy story for only one reason - because you don't like him. Which is fine but c'mon.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Athletes push thru minor injuries all the time. *Some* would advise him to stop for the day, others would say that looks weak. Ultimately, regardless of how he is counseled, he is the one that made the decision. He would hardly be the first young athlete to do the same.
Anyway if someone doesn't like him that's fine. Calling him a liar is baseless.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
A private work out is sketchy; but so is a guy trying to time him from the video he posted.
Riffraff
Footballguy
To get the two places past the decimal, I’d bet the stopwatch was electronic. Thus electronically timed...
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Private workouts vs combine has always been shady. Haven’t you ever wondered why the private workouts have better times?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
What reason do you think personal workouts always have better times?Make no mistake, private workouts always are better timed. But make no mistake, the stopwatches are electronic.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Joe Bob the trainer is holding the electronic device from start to finish. Timing from an odd angle instead of right up at the start and end lines.
Combine - Probably have the same persons clicking the start and end times for better continuity. They also probably use the side cameras with timers on them along with a stopwatch at the 40. Thus the delay in reporting official times instead of just showing a stopwatch as official.
So for clarification, are you saying stopwatches with two digits past the decimal are not electronic?
Or do you honestly think they are using a sun dial and saying one-Mississippi, two-Mississippi, three... it’s okay to admit it either way.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Well I used my stopwatch on my phone during his clip, I clocked him at 4.29.
I have way more faith in analyzing a video with no agenda than the guy himself saying he ran X fast. All the combine participants did the same thing, and they were shown otherwise. None proved to be right in what they thought they'd run.
His time is crap, and he cemented himself as a worse version of David Montgomery rather than a better one.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No, I just wanted your opinion as to why personal workout always produce better times.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I don't follow where you made the jump from his private work out time being crap to cementing himself as a worse version Monty.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Having watched the video, it's pretty difficult from the camera angle to know exactly when he crosses the end line. So that's why I'm skeptical of somebody timing it himself. I'm also skeptical of a guy posting a video with his buddy timing it.
Honestly, I choose to pretend this video never happened.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
The guy doing so has been timing players this way at least since 2014 so I think his method may have some merit.
If you spent a lot of time measuring and recording this data over the years I cant imagine doing so without accuracy and consistency being the main goals and priorities.
@ZWK have you cross checked Xues data vs the combine for differences?
I seem to recall you talking about that before.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I guess it was a different thread that I made that comparison to Montgomery pending the workout. Don't mind me I'm all over the place.
ZWK
Footballguy
Yeah. The conclusion was that Xue's measurements hold weight. I'd put more stock in them than in a pro day report, but less stock in them than the official time that gets reported on draftscout.
The method was that, a few years back I had 3 sources for combine 40 time estimates for each player: Xue's estimate, the initially reported number from draftscout, and the final updated number reported from draftscout. If you tried to predict the final updated draftscout number, you would get a more accurate estimate if you took both of the other two numbers into account (with slightly more weight on the initial draftscout number). That means that both the Xue estimate and the initially draftscout estimate both contained some information that the other one was missing, and Xue was almost as good as draftscout's initial work at getting an accurate number.
I agree that the angle makes it harder for Xue, but also the timing at this workout is way sketchier than the timing at the combine by an independent organization.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I recall that, but I still do not follow. How has his workout cemented him as worse when his numbers are nearly identical to Monty?
Zyphros
Footballguy
Basically just age for me. They're only about 6 months apart, and Montgomery has NFL experience that he wasn't horrible. I had them in the same tiers in their respective classes in terms of talent, so athleticism was the next piece of the puzzle. They are both poor athletes and I expect Moss' draft capital to be worse than Montgomery's was. The thing is we know Montgomery's agility and burst numbers, we don't on Moss. It's an incomplete picture so with the information I have, he has to be a worse version at this moment. '
The one thing that does give Moss an advantage is his pass catching resume, but I don't think he's special in that area so that makes me believe he's replaceable.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think you are possibly wrong. And if you're correct, it's not because Moss is a much worse prospect but because this is a stronger rb draft. If they came out the same year, they would be picked pretty close to each other.
Similar stats, even throwing out Moss's senior year (since Monty was in the NFL at that age). Monty has more rushing yards, but Moss also missed some games his jr year. One thing that might jump out is Moss having a higher ypc junior year 6.1 to 4.7, actually just college career higher ypc in general. Receiving stats were pretty close.
Moss was PFF's top running back before the combine, ahead of Jonathon Taylor and De'Andre Swift. I think that's pretty significant though. Monty was 3rd behind Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs.
And obviously the combine is a push, they both kind of sucked it up.
Looking at Moss vs Montgomery without bias just facts, I think you'd say they are pretty close as prospects, take-your-pick kind of thing.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Tough to see good landing spots for all these RBs. How many teams have an immediate need?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Need for a primary back? Miami has a huge hole. Then you have chi, det, Tb, nyj, ind, bal, kc, buf, lar, lac, sf, sea, gb, Atl, was, phi, ari, and ten.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Most of those teams don’t need a primary back, especially gb, ind, tenn buf, atl, lac, and phi.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Miami- a massive hole for sure, their backfield stinks
Chicago- they just took a RB last year in the early 3rd, that is earlier than I expect Moss to go and toss in Cohen, I don't see Moss walking in there and being anything but 3rd on the depth chart
Detroit- Kerryon's play has been solid but his health has been the issue, I could see Moss being part of a 50-50 split there
Tampa- whatever RB lands there is in great position to have a big rookie year
NYJ- at least for this season they have a large contract with an All Pro RB
Indy- Mack, Hines and Moss could be messy but Mack also played pretty well last year and I don't see him losing much of his workload if healthy
Bal- good landing spot, might be messy year 1 but very nice for year 2 and beyond
KC- a dream landing spot but Damien Williams isn't just going away
Buf- Singletary isn't going away either, he's getting a lot of touches next year
LAR- wildcard spot since we really don't know what Henderson is
LAC- good spot but obvious committee with uncertainty at QB
SF- messy platoon but good longterm potential
Sea- good landing spot as Carson and Penny look shaky
GB- I guess but there current duo did awfully well last season
Atl- Todd Gurley
Was- Peterson is old and Guice has had injuries so this could be a sweet destination or a one way ticket to palookaville
Phi- There is room for a committee here but Miles Sanders looks like one of the marquee pieces of this offense
Ari- not a bad spot, Drake is suspect
Ten- Nothing to see here in 2020 but might be a goldmine for 2021
And don't forget there is Swiftm Taylor, CEH, Akers, and Dobbins who are all expected to go before Moss. Dillon could as well. There are only a couple sports where I see he could land and jump up so much in value.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Right, not a lot of landing spots that you aren’t waiting a year on or being a committee, other than Miami. Pretty much all those others listed would be in the market for a rb, some will take one, some won’t. Seems all the rookie rbs are worth a lot right now, but I don’t see a lot of places where they would get a bump post draft.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Pittsburgh is among the best spots for a runningback and they interviewed Moss at the combine for what it's worth. He is a similar player to Conner, but I'm pretty sure he's better in almost every way. The Steelers will probably take him in the 2nd or 3rd, maybe 4th.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes, Pittsburgh is a definite landing spot IMO, just hope they choose someone else besides Moss.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Potentially Swiff, Taylor, and Dobbins all gone by the time the Steelers pick in the 2nd.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, let's see, I prefer obviously Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, and Akers over Moss. Throw in CEH too. Not sure about Gibson, Benjamin, McFarland, Vaughn and Dillon.
Moss has warts that I would rather look at other positions in the 2nd round of rookie drafts. In a start 1 qb league I'd much rather take Burrow or Tua in the 2nd over Moss. There are also several WRs that will fall into the 2nd that I prefer over Moss. If by some miracle Moss goes in the first round of any of my rookie drafts I consider that a plus for me picking after that owner.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Yes I forgot Pittsburgh, I’d put them right up near the top (not that my list was in any order.)
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He's in the conversation there; I expect him to go around the same as Akers and CEH, ahead of the others mentioned. You can't ignore the warts, lack of elusiveness and getaway speed, but all 2+ rounders have some. Still give him credit as a well rounded player and what he did at Utah. He was the centerpiece of a good offense, pretty sure in this class only Taylor has more career rushing yards, ( but not more receiving yards).
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Idk, man. I'm not understanding how Moss's questions are so much more questionable than Akers's or CEH's.
Boston
Footballguy
If Fournette gets traded Jax goes right to the top of the list as there is literally no other competition there.
