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RB James Robinson, NE (2 Viewers)

I am hoping for an Ingram/Kamara set up from their first year or two together. Esp with Urban talking Etienne up as a 3rd down back (I do not believe it, who drafts a 3rd down back in the first damn rd?)

All in all this hurts bad.

Another hope is a team wanting an RB could trade for him, given this draft is thought of as lacking in the RB dept.

 
SayWhat? said:
It’s really just a lesson learned for all those that say draft capital doesn’t matter once you are in the league.  

To which I will continue to say, bull🤬.

If Robinson had been the Jags 1st or 2nd round pick last year and had the season he had, I feel extremely confident that Urban Meyer doesn’t come in and grab “another” RB in the first round this year.  But there was no investment made in Robinson, and that’s actually relevant in the eyes of NFL decision makers.
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This baffles me, because teams absolutely want this to happen with QB's.  Dallas LOOOOVED having Dak as a 4th rounder.  Seattle with Wilson too.  Cheap rookies who give you a great chance to win.  Why is JRob any different? 

 
wlwiles said:
This baffles me, because teams absolutely want this to happen with QB's.  Dallas LOOOOVED having Dak as a 4th rounder.  Seattle with Wilson too.  Cheap rookies who give you a great chance to win.  Why is JRob any different? 
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Because it's not just draft capital as numbers on a board to check off and see about raw dollars. It's why he had no draft capital that might be the sticking point. 

More likely, it's a new coach, mixed with the lack of draft capital, mixed with the lack of speed that did him in. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He's an UDFA and dirt cheap. JAX has no incentive to trade him unless a team really steps up and pays big - the odds are seriously stacked against that. 
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:goodposting:

Oh I know that, but a guy with him in 3 leagues can hope!!!

He got me to two finals (I went 1-1) and I was hoping to set up a great few year run with him, JTaylor, Swift, Herbert and Ja'Marr Chase

 
woodstock said:
Sorry to hear that, meno.

. I think  If it's any consolation, Meyer might be so clueless that he indeed does make Etienne his third down back like he says he will. Problem is, would you trust Meyer's word as far as you could throw him? No way. 
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I'm ok thanks but I truly feel bad for Robinson and how they played him. So last night the Jags had 4-5 players at their stadium for a draft party and Robinson was one of them. He's on stage firing up the crowd and when the Trevor pick was announced he immediately tweeted out one of those "let's work" type tweets. Then you never heard from him again, no such tweet for ETN. I'd honestly like to know from someone at the scene if he found out while on stage.

But the other negative thing the poor guy has to deal with is earning about half of what Hyde will earn and about 1/3rd of what ETN will earn next year. So to people who say he should just "man up" and compete I would say if this was any profession in the world I would feel the guy got wronged.

As for Urban I certainly don't believe he used this pick for third down back and for someone who is such a culture builder I'm a little surprised he does not understand the ramifications this can have on a lockerroom. I mean what's the message? Earn a job and do great and we'll reward you by bringing in people our staff and players know and pay them more then you?

 
menobrown said:
I'm ok thanks but I truly feel bad for Robinson and how they played him.
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So do I, actually. I was trying to explain fantasy football and Robinson to my relatives last night and I kept getting stuck that this was probably the meaningful end for him barring any sort of injury. I felt bad. It felt like he'd been wronged, that you come in, you bust your ###, you win a job, you're the Cinderella story -- all that. And then a new prickly sheriff rides into town, ego blazing, and you're no longer the crown prince, you're just barely deputized and rendered impotent, barring some freak injury. 

Not cool to really explain how his career just went up in flames. He doesn't make big cheddar, either.  

Probably a bad way to start off appealing to your locker room, but Meyer is the guy that has said weird #### in the media all along (nothing obscene, just weird and telling, at least to me) and almost brought in the formerly notorious racist Iowa strength coach (of all the strength coaches in the world, he was trying to bring in the one nationally known for racism charges against him) until people cried foul, upon which the coach tendered his resignation, presumably asked for by Meyer and the Jaguars. So I have no faith in him doing things that lead to a player atmosphere, and maybe at heart, a professional one. I have serious doubts about the man, and always have. 

 
B Maverick said:
I am hoping for an Ingram/Kamara set up from their first year or two together..
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I've heard this expressed a few times but sorry I will have to try and take the hope away. Or I should say take the hope away for Robinson.

1. Notice Meyer called Robinson/Hyde his 1-2 punch so it's not even a two man RBBC. So recall the Saints during Kamara's rookie season and he did not really start his full on breakout until they got rid of Peterson during the bye week.

2. From week 6 on in 2017 Ingram was really great, a 20PPG fantasy producer but that was a 10 game stretch. In 2018 he was down to 12.5 a game and dropped again the following year. So while we all fondly remember Ingram/Kamara and use them as example of how two RB's can excel together it was really just for 10 games.

3. We do have other examples. I believe Gordon/Ekeler combined to average 34 points a game in their games together in 2018. But the reason for that, and big reason for Ingram and Kamara being able co-exist was a healthy amount of targets to RB's. This historically has not been a big part of Schottenheimers offenses. Hunt and Chubb combined for a little over 30 a game in their games together and that's probably the most realistic best case scenario for Robinson except of course he's not as good as Chubb and ETN I'm thinking plays a bigger role then Hunt.

 
menobrown said:
But the other negative thing the poor guy has to deal with is earning about half of what Hyde will earn and about 1/3rd of what ETN will earn next year. So to people who say he should just "man up" and compete I would say if this was any profession in the world I would feel the guy got wronged.
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Hadn't thought of that angle. What a shame for him.

 
menobrown said:
I've heard this expressed a few times but sorry I will have to try and take the hope away. Or I should say take the hope away for Robinson.

1. Notice Meyer called Robinson/Hyde his 1-2 punch so it's not even a two man RBBC. So recall the Saints during Kamara's rookie season and he did not really start his full on breakout until they got rid of Peterson during the bye week.

2. From week 6 on in 2017 Ingram was really great, a 20PPG fantasy producer but that was a 10 game stretch. In 2018 he was down to 12.5 a game and dropped again the following year. So while we all fondly remember Ingram/Kamara and use them as example of how two RB's can excel together it was really just for 10 games.

3. We do have other examples. I believe Gordon/Ekeler combined to average 34 points a game in their games together in 2018. But the reason for that, and big reason for Ingram and Kamara being able co-exist was a healthy amount of targets to RB's. This historically has not been a big part of Schottenheimers offenses. Hunt and Chubb combined for a little over 30 a game in their games together and that's probably the most realistic best case scenario for Robinson except of course he's not as good as Chubb and ETN I'm thinking plays a bigger role then Hunt.
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:goodposting:

For me I was thinking more about those 10 games and until Kamara really broke out and took over.  I expect similar here. At some point ETN will take over but maybe in the short term its like those 10 games.

I could also see an A Jones/J Williams type setup.  Not great for anyone but points to be had for both.

 
I wouldn't be worried at all about Hyde. If he is losing touches to Hyde that means Robinson was always going to fall on his face this year. Tough break with ETN though and even tougher knowing Lawrence probably had a hand in that pick. We know who he is going to want to see on the field. 

 
Well I licked my wounds and checked out my rosters and it appears the damage is not nearly as bad as I thought. To be clear I fully consider Robinson to be something similar to Kareem Hunt now *at best*. In terms of his best case production scenario and as well as value is concerned. Which means he *might* be startable here and there but he is most likely a roster clogger. In FFPC anyway. That is the ceiling projection. A roster clogger. His floor is much worse. But I don't know if I'm going to be able to find that believer out there who is willing to pay something for him. I guess everyone needs RBs though.

As Doc Oc pointed out, a trade is highly unlikely so he is going to be stuck on the Jags for his rookie contract. Unless they want to package him with Minshew. That would be my dream come true but yeah not happening.

But it looks like all but 1 of my teams that had Robinson have plenty of assets to take this blow in stride. The other 1 is a crappy orphan that needs torn apart anyway. ####.

 
barackdhouse said:
As Doc Oc pointed out, a trade is highly unlikely so he is going to be stuck on the Jags for his rookie contract. Unless they want to package him with Minshew. That would be my dream come true but yeah not happening.
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Hmmmm...this got me thinking, how long is he signed for? As an UDFA, he didn't get a four year rookie contract. How long did he sign for?

 
Ilov80s said:
I wouldn't be worried at all about Hyde. If he is losing touches to Hyde that means Robinson was always going to fall on his face this year. Tough break with ETN though and even tougher knowing Lawrence probably had a hand in that pick. We know who he is going to want to see on the field. 
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That'd be hilarious if Lawrence did have a say in the pick.  He should send Aaron Rodgers a text saying "hey rookie, this is how you do it!" 

 
beef said:
That'd be hilarious if Lawrence did have a say in the pick.  He should send Aaron Rodgers a text saying "hey rookie, this is how you do it!" 
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When I say he had a say, I don't mean he is actually a decision maker but once management identified they liked ETN, they probably asked Lawrence about him and had Lawrence in mind when selecting him. 

 
barackdhouse said:
Well I licked my wounds and checked out my rosters and it appears the damage is not nearly as bad as I thought. To be clear I fully consider Robinson to be something similar to Kareem Hunt now *at best*. In terms of his best case production scenario and as well as value is concerned. Which means he *might* be startable here and there but he is most likely a roster clogger. In FFPC anyway. That is the ceiling projection. A roster clogger. His floor is much worse. But I don't know if I'm going to be able to find that believer out there who is willing to pay something for him. I guess everyone needs RBs though.

As Doc Oc pointed out, a trade is highly unlikely so he is going to be stuck on the Jags for his rookie contract. Unless they want to package him with Minshew. That would be my dream come true but yeah not happening.

But it looks like all but 1 of my teams that had Robinson have plenty of assets to take this blow in stride. The other 1 is a crappy orphan that needs torn apart anyway. ####.
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maybe, just maybe, Robinson becomes the Chubb and ETN is the Hunt?  I have no Robinson shares in dynasty but just trying to send positive vibes because he helped me win 2 redraft leagues last year...

 
wlwiles said:
maybe, just maybe, Robinson becomes the Chubb and ETN is the Hunt?  I have no Robinson shares in dynasty but just trying to send positive vibes because he helped me win 2 redraft leagues last year...
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Yeah maybe. I can see a useful split but that would make UM even stupider for spending a 1st rounder. I'm over it, the damage is already done, no use trying to look on the bright side. If he gets usage and I have to start him I'll start him. Otherwise it's like losing a big pot in poker. It happens but you move on. 

 
I just wanted to bump to say Urban Meyer can go eat an Oscar Meyer. ETN 3rd down back eh? Sigh. Just target the heck out of Chark and we're cool. 

 
Edgar said:
I agree it's Etienne to be worried about. The Jags are taking Trevor, and they might take his teammate ETN at 33. It's solid value, the Jags need playmakers, etc. Similar to the "gotta reunite Jamar Chase with Joe Burrow" chatter
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Good call here.

 
I actually think ETN compliments Robinson.  Their strengths are compliments and I could see them being used to their strengths (if the coaching staff is smart).  Robinson is good in burst and movement in the hole to get positive yards as well as making the first guy miss.  ETN is good in space and long speed.  These two guys do compliment each other.  I think it is good in NFL terms (although using a 1st round pick wasn't necessary) but bad for FF.  I don't think Robinson goes away but both guys are negatively affected for FF.

 
Just saw a tweet that said that Robinson had an average of -.02 Yards Per Expected Outcome and an explosive rank of 68th in the league. Neither of those are good, and sort of are in keeping with what I saw last year. I watched nearly every game of his. He's got a pretty decent burst, but it stops at even the first level and guys catch up with him quickly. He was a volume-based back, it seems most agree. I mean, he controlled, I think, 95% of the backfield share last year. That's astounding in this modern age of football.

Etienne should provide a necessary change of pace at least, and he might get some regular totes as the feature back if Meyer sees that he's doing a better job, which is entirely possible, likely even. I think both backs seem to have weaknesses, and don't trust Meyer one bit to use them wisely. I'm not saying anything but that this seems muddled and the choice of ETN was worse for Robinson than just becoming more of a timeshare. You generally don't spend first-round capital on non-starters when you have so many other needs. But, like I said, this is Meyer and his reasons and reactions regarding personnel were suspect at best this off-season.

 
I think ETN is just a backup just in case JR doesn't go Ben Tate/Tre Mason his 2nd yr. I don't see how can you bench him if he keeps his 4.5+ yd/car avg.

 
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Unwrittenlaw said:
I think ETN is just a backup just in case JR doesn't go Ben Tate/Tre Mason his 2nd yr. I don't see how can you bench him if he keeps his 4.5+ yd/car avg.
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I disagree with this and think the best JR can hope for is the lesser end of a split. 

 
wlwiles said:
maybe, just maybe, Robinson becomes the Chubb and ETN is the Hunt?  I have no Robinson shares in dynasty but just trying to send positive vibes because he helped me win 2 redraft leagues last year...
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I see more like an Ingram/Kamara combo. And when I say Ingram, I really mean Ingram lite. 

Unwrittenlaw said:
I think ETN is just a backup just in case JR doesn't go Ben Tate/Tre Mason his 2nd yr. I don't see how can you bench him if he keeps his 4.5+ yd/car avg.
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You think the team spent 1st round pick on a fire extinguisher back? Also, you won't be making anyone here feel good about Robinson when you bring up Tre Mason who is basically the figurehead for surprisingly good young RB who was sank to the bottom of the dynasty ocean when their team invested heavily into a big name RB. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I see more like an Ingram/Kamara combo. And when I say Ingram, I really mean Ingram lite. 

You think the team spent 1st round pick on a fire extinguisher back? Also, you won't be making anyone here feel good about Robinson when you bring up Tre Mason who is basically the figurehead for surprisingly good young RB who was sank to the bottom of the dynasty ocean when their team invested heavily into a big name RB. 
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Wouldn't be the first time a RB drafted in the 1st completely busted.  David Wilson/R Penny/Jahvid Best/Benson?

Wanna go back to the Bears when they drafted Cedric Benson in the 1st when they had a 1000 yd rusher in Thomas Jones the yr before? or when the Bengals had Rudi Johnson (957 yds/4.5 y/c the yr before) and they drafted Chris Perry in the 1st?

I've seen instances where a RB stats like Travis Henry decline the yr a RB like Kevin Jones got drafted.  But there is no way in hell James Robinson will be replaced if he maintains that 4.5 yd/car.

Very rarely does a RB with the size of JR and his stats gets replaced if he retains his production. Just went through 20 yrs of data.

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Very rarely does a RB with the size of JR and his stats gets replaced if he retains his production. Just went through 20 yrs of data.
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The main problem with your hypothesis is that teams aren't looking at YPC as much anymore. They're looking at Yards Produced Over Expectation, PFF grades, and explosive runs.

New coach, new regime in town that values speed, which Robinson has little of.

The writing's on the wall if Etienne is a competent pro back. Nobody can tell how the split will go, but we have the tea leaves.

 
voiceofunreason said:
Let me know when the denial phase is over.
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Not worried at all. Jacksonville was dead last in rushing attempts in the NFL last year. That's most likely not gonna happen again with Trevor at QB. Their passing Y/A was only 5.6. Jacksonville clearly saw him as a workhorse when he got 70% of their carries.

 
James Robinson carried 86% of his team's carries last year. That's with missing two games. His points were definitely tied to his usage. I'd be worried. But this smacks of :fishing: , so I'm gonna let you go. 

 
rockaction said:
The main problem with your hypothesis is that teams aren't looking at YPC as much anymore. They're looking at Yards Produced Over Expectation, PFF grades, and explosive runs.

New coach, new regime in town that values speed, which Robinson has little of.

The writing's on the wall if Etienne is a competent pro back. Nobody can tell how the split will go, but we have the tea leaves.
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Given everything I have seen of Urban in college (which as a Michigan fan was much more than I wanted), you are right. He wants speed at every level of the field. 

Unwrittenlaw said:
Not worried at all. Jacksonville was dead last in rushing attempts in the NFL last year. That's most likely not gonna happen again with Trevor at QB. Their passing Y/A was only 5.6. Jacksonville clearly saw him as a workhorse when he got 70% of their carries.
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Could that partly be due to them having a UDFA as the only competent back on the team?

Helaire-ious said:
Glad I traded him for Ridley before the draft
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Did you hold him at gunpoint or something? 

 
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Unwrittenlaw said:
Wouldn't be the first time a RB drafted in the 1st completely busted.  David Wilson/R Penny/Jahvid Best/Benson?
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Agreed, ETN could bust.That's on the table for any player no matter how high they go. 

Wanna go back to the Bears when they drafted Cedric Benson in the 1st when they had a 1000 yd rusher in Thomas Jones the yr before? or when the Bengals had Rudi Johnson (957 yds/4.5 y/c the yr before) and they drafted Chris Perry in the 1st?

I've seen instances where a RB stats like Travis Henry decline the yr a RB like Kevin Jones got drafted.  But there is no way in hell James Robinson will be replaced if he maintains that 4.5 yd/car.
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I am not saying the team is going to instantly bench Robinson. This isn't the era of workhorse backs anymore. Both guys will get their share of touches. I just think ETN is much more talented and will earn more and more of the workload as the season goes on. Robinson will be involved though. Probably not as much in the passing game which is a killer though. 

Very rarely does a RB with the size of JR and his stats gets replaced if he retains his production. Just went through 20 yrs of data.
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How many instances are there of a RB with his size and production seeing a new regime draft a RB 1st round? Can't be too many. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I see more like an Ingram/Kamara combo. And when I say Ingram, I really mean Ingram lite. 

You think the team spent 1st round pick on a fire extinguisher back? Also, you won't be making anyone here feel good about Robinson when you bring up Tre Mason who is basically the figurehead for surprisingly good young RB who was sank to the bottom of the dynasty ocean when their team invested heavily into a big name RB. 
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To be fair, Tre Mason fell to the bottom, because of off field issues. Issues that IIRC were showing signs of being a problem before Gurley was drafted.

That said, I think people(in general) are writing off Robinson too quickly. I think this is a situation where both guys are on the RB 2/3 radar for years to come. Your Ingram/Kamara lite idea likely isn't far off. I like Trevor Lawrence, but its a longshot the Jags become the 2018 Saints anytime soon.

As a said in the Etienne thread, I wouldn't take him until 1.6. Too much risk that he's a part time player for years. But in a nutshell, he's going to be the more valuable of the 2 Jags RBs.

 
travdogg said:
To be fair, Tre Mason fell to the bottom, because of off field issues. Issues that IIRC were showing signs of being a problem before Gurley was drafted.

That said, I think people(in general) are writing off Robinson too quickly. I think this is a situation where both guys are on the RB 2/3 radar for years to come. Your Ingram/Kamara lite idea likely isn't far off. I like Trevor Lawrence, but its a longshot the Jags become the 2018 Saints anytime soon.

As a said in the Etienne thread, I wouldn't take him until 1.6. Too much risk that he's a part time player for years. But in a nutshell, he's going to be the more valuable of the 2 Jags RBs.
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I like the idea of having the RB paired with Trevor Lawrence a lot more than RB tied to, Broken Ben and Drew Lockwater  or whatever is going on in Denver. It's unlikely the Jags become the Saints, but when a high end QB hits that running back tends to become a hot commodity and a lot of data seems to show that while opportunity is really important, so is being tied to a high scoring offense. 

 
The Carlos Hyde signing was such a tease. You figure Oscar found his pet backup back from college. The itch was scratched. There were so many other needs in the trenches and defense. There were impact tackles on the board. 

You accept it’s a volatile situation having an UDFA atop the depth chart of a new regime with little motivation to produce fond memories of the priors player evaluation efforts. But it was a historic season, and you’ve locked up 5-7m in excess value per season on his contract. You have 100m+ in excess value with Lawrence’s contact. You can draft and buy the D and compete immediately. Tom Coughlin did it with far less advantage. 
 

JR goes from a community chest card to a chance card. His his trade value will never be above his hold value. He has elite vision and he seems highly driven with good ethic. I think he’ll get better. Baring Etienne being unable to run with power between the tackles, JR is a backup/maybe GL. 
 

also sad for Laviska as it seems he is in for the same fate. Pining for Toney. The writing is on the wall. New regime wants faces of franchise to be new regime players 
 

:sadtrombone:

 
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Babooya said:
The Carlos Hyde sigYeahning was such a tease. You figure Oscar found his pet backup back from college. The itch was scratched. There were so many other needs in the trenches and defense. There were impact tackles on the board. 

You accept it’s a volatile situation having an UDFA atop the depth chart of a new regime with little motivation to produce fond memories of the priors player evaluation efforts. But it was a historic season, and you’ve locked up 5-7m in excess value per season on his contract. You have 100m+ in excess value with Lawrence’s contact. You can draft and buy the D and compete immediately. Tom Coughlin did it with far less advantage. 
 

JR goes from a community chest card to a chance card. His his trade value will never be above his hold value. He has elite vision and he seems highly driven with good ethic. I think he’ll get better. Baring Etienne being unable to run with power between the tackles, JR is a backup/maybe GL. 
 

also sad for Laviska as it seems he is in for the same fate. Pining for Toney. The writing is on the wall. New regime wants faces of franchise to be new regime players 
 

:sadtrombone:
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Yeah, my guess is Urban doesn't give or know #### about excess value. He just has an offense he likes and he wants the players who fit it. Coming from college, he is used to always getting the best athletes to run his schemes. I am sure one of the first things he did when taking over circle that RB spot as a position of major need. 

 
Babooya said:
The Carlos Hyde signing was such a tease. You figure Oscar found his pet backup back from college. The itch was scratched. There were so many other needs in the trenches and defense. There were impact tackles on the board. 

You accept it’s a volatile situation having an UDFA atop the depth chart of a new regime with little motivation to produce fond memories of the priors player evaluation efforts. But it was a historic season, and you’ve locked up 5-7m in excess value per season on his contract. You have 100m+ in excess value with Lawrence’s contact. You can draft and buy the D and compete immediately. Tom Coughlin did it with far less advantage. 
 

JR goes from a community chest card to a chance card. His his trade value will never be above his hold value. He has elite vision and he seems highly driven with good ethic. I think he’ll get better. Baring Etienne being unable to run with power between the tackles, JR is a backup/maybe GL. 
 

also sad for Laviska as it seems he is in for the same fate. Pining for Toney. The writing is on the wall. New regime wants faces of franchise to be new regime players 
 

:sadtrombone:
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I fully expect Laviska to be at least the 1B to Chark, and a WR4 with upside.

The Hyde signing never moved the needle to me. They were always going to add a guy in the draft, the hope was it was more like a Gainwell or a Hubbard though. Even with Etienne, I think Robinson is still a heavily involved player. I don't see any reason they can't/won't both hover around 200 touches. RB2/RB3 territory. I could even see it being less of an Ingram/Kamara. and more of a Drake/Edmonds, at least for 2021. 

Robinson probably isn't a bad buy low right now, if people are thinking he's just going to be an afterthought. 

Ilov80s said:
I like the idea of having the RB paired with Trevor Lawrence a lot more than RB tied to, Broken Ben and Drew Lockwater  or whatever is going on in Denver. It's unlikely the Jags become the Saints, but when a high end QB hits that running back tends to become a hot commodity and a lot of data seems to show that while opportunity is really important, so is being tied to a high scoring offense. 
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I guess that depends on what you think of Etienne's talent. I personally thought he was the 3rd best RB in the class(I had Williams #1, which looks even less hot) but I think I'm almost certainly passing on RB at the top of the draft. 

I do agree that being on a high scoring offense can help, but its not a requirement. I mean the best RB during the fantasy playoffs last year, short of Kamara, was arguably David Montgomery. 

 
travdogg said:
I guess that depends on what you think of Etienne's talent. I personally thought he was the 3rd best RB in the class(I had Williams #1, which looks even less hot) but I think I'm almost certainly passing on RB at the top of the draft. 
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I just don't get what people are missing. ETN is one of the objectively best RB prospects of the millennium. The only blemish is he's a senior but that is by choice not because he wasn't a high end prospect after his junior year. RBs with his size, speed, receiving chops, rushing records, big play ability, performance at a young age and level of competition don't come around very often. 

I do agree that being on a high scoring offense can help, but its not a requirement. I mean the best RB during the fantasy playoffs last year, short of Kamara, was arguably David Montgomery. 
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Look at the bigger picture though and I believe most years the bulk of the RB1 come from better than average offenses. Maybe the rookies the Steelers drafted work out right away and Ben has a bounce back year or they sign Cousins next season but as of now, the Steelers offense has potential to crater. We are a hit away from a Haskins led offense. I know we can say that about a lot of teams but most teams don't have a 39 year old QB with a history of shoulder ailments who seem to regularly take big hits. 

 
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Sorry Robinson owners, but the time to sell him was before the NFL draft.  Now you're only looking at the ETN owner as a possible match and it won't be for a 1st rd. pick any longer.

 
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