Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
What I was referencing was that we don't really know what is fully guaranteed and when. What is the signing bonus? What are roster bonuses if he is still on the team and which seasons? Sometimes there are guarantees that are only for injury.
What is interesting is this is the second time that a Brady back up went elsewhere and cashed in . . . for more than Brady got paid.
My guess would be heavily front-loaded considering the 49ers rollover cap-space. If they are protecting themselves and still modeling it after Carr's contract then possibly something like a relatively small signing bonus, fully guaranteed salaries in 2018 & 2019 plus roster bonuses and likely the base salary becomes guaranteed for injury only if he's on the roster upon the start of the new league year in 2020 or something. Then again, given JG's bargaining position, SF may not have put in too many outs for fear he wouldn't agree to sign.
Not my money, but JG had essentially the same number of starts as Osweiler did when he got a new deal. Yet SF was willing to give Jimmy G. Osweiler money + 50-60%. Seems a little crazy to me, but I don't run an NFL franchise.
Plus traded an early 2nd for him in the first place. Edit: Removed the info on Brock's stats as a comparison, I was incorrect.
Garp's salary will be sandwiched between the likes of Stafford, Carr, and Cousins (probably)... SF is basically saying that he's as good as those 3 guys, which I think is fair.
But Osweiler looked average at best in his starts and relied on the defense to win games. Garoppolo looked amazing and took a team that had only won 1 game and won 5 straight, including two over playoff teams. He did that with receivers led by a journeyman (Goodwin) and a couple 5th round rookies (Taylor and Kittle).
I think the big difference is that Shanahan got him into the system, watched him in practice and games, saw his ability to pick up a complex offense and saw how he fit in as a personality before paying him the big dollars. Houston paid Osweiler and probably realized 2 months later it was a big mistake. People blasted the 49ers for giving up the 2nd round pick just to get a look at him, but it was a brilliant move that gave them the knowledge they needed to give him the big dollars.
The difference being that one guy looked like a hall of famer in those starts and the other guy looked somewhat serviceable.
Que?Buckna said:
Looking at the past few years, San Fran had nowhere to go but up. Better to take a gamble than to stay doormats without trying. And its not like Jimmy didnt look anything short of fantastic. Matt Ryan said Shannys offense was a humdinger to grasp, and Jimmy came in and picked it up in a matter of weeks. Now, they obviously didnt throw the WHOLE playbook at him, but its still impressive the command he had in that time frame, and his ability to execute with mediocre talent around him.Buckna said:
A lot of qbs start out good and defenses adjust. Too much money for a six game starter no matter how good he looked. If he even ends up being an average qb it's a pretty bad contract.Ben & Jerry's said:
JG was good when I watched him in SF. But HOFer good? That's a bit of a reach.FreeBaGeL said:
Look what Shanahan has done for the QBs hes coached. Even Hoyer looked good in Cleveland for a minute. Jimmy obviously has a ton of talent, and Shanny will turn him into a rock solid if not elite QB. Its not like Jimmy was taken from the trash heap. Its all about scheme and personnel, and hes probably in the best possible scenario and place he could be at this point.
Since you said "Look what Shanahan has done for QBs he's coached" . . .
Well, the offense extended drives, keeping the defense off the field, so yeah, you could say he made the defense better.
I guess we will have to wait and see if the Niners can do as well across an entire season. The defense allowed 75 fewer yards and a TD less per game with JG starting.
Ok, Ill bite.
You realize that if people agreed with you all you’ve done is prove that paying a qb 27 million a year is stupid when Shanahan can make anyone good.
I stand corrected, I only compared their stats on the absolute face of them, should have compared them across peers for overall standings. I'll edit my original post.
His efficiency stats were HOFer good is kind of what I was getting at.
I believe the difference is I was counting all of JG's starts which included 2 in New England.
A fair point, but really if JG busts the 9ers are screwed for several years regardless of whether his contract is yuge or merely pretty big.
Makes sense. Was probably thinking of taking Brady out Gillooly style and then figured he didn't want to end up like Tonya Harding so took a smarter approach.Workhorse said:Fun conspiracy theory running around my flu-added brain:
Maybe Garoppolo was actually the one who deflated the footballs and tipped off the Colts and the league office, so that he could get his starting shot with the Pats to prove his worth and hit free agency with a head of steam. Who had the most to gain by that whole situation? Hmmm???? The plan finally came together.
Muh-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!!
The answer is... "who gives a ####".FF Ninja said:
Are you implying someone would've paid more than this if there was a blind bidding war for a backup with almost no experience??
Excuse me for opposing the group think which is siding with a rookie GM and rookie head coach. The notion that they couldn't have afforded him on the open market is straight up stupid when you think about what they just paid him. If they would've just waited a couple months, they'd have a high 2nd, a higher 1st, and a QB under contract for a fraction of what they just paid... and the results would be the same. They paid a high price to make their talent evaluation job easier. No way a coach like BB ever makes a move like this. He knows draft picks and cap space matter.
It's not about if "they couldn't have afforded him" in free agency. Even if they chose to outbid other teams, it doesn't mean Jimmy G takes their offer when they're coming off a 2 (?) win season and have very little offensive talent to work with. And good luck getting offensive FAs to commit first with no QB in place.
Anyone else willing to pay him a lot was going to have similar problems as SF. And let's not pretend most NFL players don't take the biggest contract. I know a few guys, usually aging veterans, will give a discount to a winning team, but (1) this is a rebuilding team not looking for guys on the decline with just a couple years left and (2) this isn't a real issue for the vast majority of players - biggest contract gets the player. For players on the fence, it's the GM's job to sell his vision and his team to those players.
I'm not saying he's not worth it. I'm not saying it's smart or foolish to give him the biggest contract in the NFL with a large amount guaranteed after just 5 games. I'm just saying this wasn't a sophie's choice for SF.The same team that won 3 games in two seasons WITHOUT him went 5-0 WITH him and even worse WR options. Isn't that all you need to know to tell you he's worth it?
I'm not interested in rehashing all the old arguments that have been discussed to death again, as at this point it's completely meaningless and you'll only see one side anyway - but one thing to consider is that the SF organization did gain something very valuable during Jimmy's audition that can help offset the cost of the contract: "hope".
It's cool that the vast majority of armchair GMs agree with this rookie move made by a rookie GM and rookie HC, but I still believe the reasons I've stated are the reasons why experienced GMs don't do s*** like this. You don't trade a lot of draft capital for the right to make your talent evaluation easier. You certainly don't do it when it might cost you a lot of extra money when you sign the player. I seriously doubt a market like SF was hurting for cash generated by season ticket sales or merchandise. A good GM would revitalize that market by turning the team around.
The funny part of this argument is that teams trade a lot of draft capital all the time for the right to show that their talent evaluation is better (not easier, better) than someone else's. Every team sees every snap in college, every drill ran at the combine, everything done at their pro day and makes their own evaluations off of that. There is about a 1% difference in what is seen and it comes down to the private workouts teams do of individual players, and many times that difference is 0% because teams draft kids they don't work out.
SF traded a 2nd round pick. You think that's a high price? Come on, don't go there again.
First of all, I'm obviously playing armchair GM, too. I'm just pointing out that a bunch of armchair GMs agreeing with Lynch means absolutely nothing. While there is an illusion of it, there is no real strength in numbers here. Second, I'm not treating it like fantasy or Madden. I use a fantasy analogy. Very different.
Shanahan liked Cousins, too, reportedly and there's no way Washington was going to franchise him again at that price. They just paid JG the richest contract in the NFL with a crazy amount of guaranteed money for a guy who played 5 games for them. You can't seriously think they couldn't have signed him or Cousins for less, still had a high 2nd, and a higher 1st. FWIW, I'd bet JG turns out to be better than Cousins, but that's just me. It's very much uncertain. But if they did all that and he busts, you write it off saying NFL talent evaluation is not an exact science. Then why trade the pick at all? I know it's inexact, but a good GM makes his call without the expenses I listed above. They act like they're playing with monopoly money in SF. There's a reason you don't see good GMs trading a high 2nd for unknown free agents. It's not a smart move. They could have achieved the same result at a lower cost. A good GM would. A rookie GM might go the route Lynch did.
You're still missing the point, and in doing so, also made my point. Would JAX draft Gabbert so high after they had a few months of watching him up close and personal? Of course not. The Niners were willing to sacrifice draft capital in order to make a better determination on Jimmy G. Just because you dismissed that as not mattering (for some reason) doesn't mean that those with actual skin in the game should.
On 10/30/17, the Niners traded a 2nd round pick for Jimmy G. They did that with the hopeful goal in mind of not needing to go 100% into college QB scouting mode, avoiding the need to decide between guys, weigh pros/cons of potential trade scenarios, avoiding all the due diligence on other FA QBs, hosting and selling themselves to FA QBs, going through extensive contract negotiations and being played by agents against other teams, to hopefully end up with the guy they wanted most.
