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QB Jimmy Garoppolo, LAR (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Niles Standish
Footballguy
I don't think the Pats will let Garoppolo get away if they think he's a franchise QB. And they've had him long enough to have a pretty good feeling about what they think he is. Drew Brees and Kurt Warner. Aren't those the only franchise QBs that have moved teams during their prime in the last 30 or so years? If Brady were 35 it would be a different conversation. But he probably has 3-4 years left in the best case scenario.
Bossman
Footballguy
As a Pats fan ... makes me i'll to think of who the Pats could have taken with the 1.12 pick had they traded Garapollo to CLE.
Derek Barnett, Jonathan Allan, TE OJ Howard, or ILB Reuben Foster would have looked good lined up next to Hightower, 1st choice of ANY OL.
Doesn't matter if Garoppolo has a 15 year hall of fame career ... because it won't be with the Pats when they are FORCED to tag and trade him next year for a mid 2nd rd pick.
There HAS to be something behind the scenes where Brady is on his way out. I just can't fathom any other reason to hang onto JG at the cost of a 5 year stud that could contribute WITH Brady.
My last thread of hope is that BB makes a deal to CLE tonight for a boatload of 2018 picks.
Color me skeptical of Schefters report. No reason for the Browns to trade for him now and give up all those picks. Sit for a year, see what's there next year in the draft with your multiple picks and if you don't like the options sign him as a FA or trade for him then if the Pats tag him. Cleveland definitely seems to be playimg the long game, no reason to panic once Trubisky and the others were gone.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You seem to give JG a 0% chance of being the starter in NE at some point. I suspect that that is inaccurate.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Without knowing what the Browns offered, it's impossible to say for sure, but assuming the offer was #12+ the fact that the Pats didn't move him says they see him as the heir to Brady and have at least a loose plan on how to make that happen IMO.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
nightmare
Footballguy
B Belichick knows he still has a shot at home field for playoffs. R Kraft knows there are no more year 2 or year 3 windows for Belichick/Brady.
Bossman
Footballguy
give me a likely scenario where JG is the long term starter for NE.Anarchy99 said:
Only ones that I can think of are Brady being injured (happened one time in his 16 years) and Brady retiring or being traded next year.
.... so maybe a 3% chance. I'd rather have the draft picks and the 97% chance that I wont need JG.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
My odds ( and I am a pats fan and Brady enthusiast):
6% chance Brady suffers season/career ending injury in 2017
8% chance Brady misses a 1+ starts in 2017 (and more likely to be later in the year when games are more meaningful)
15% chance Brady's play drops off dramatically in 2017
20% chance Brady's play drops below jimmy g's projected play in BB's mind
Bossman
Footballguy
so ...
94% chance Brady doesn't suffer a season/career ending injury in 2017
92% chance Brady doesn't miss 1+ starts in 2017 (and more likely to be later in the year when games are more meaningful)
85% chance Brady's play doesn't drop off dramatically in 2017
80% chance Brady's play doesn't drop below jimmy g's projected play in BB's mind
Not that I agree with all of those numbers but for the sake of argument.
IMO these odds don't justify not trading JG to bring in several young STUDS to put in place around Brady ... to help win NOW and for the next 5 seasons. Apparently BB has no use for elite young DE, LB, CB, or TE talent that could have been on the field week 1 of 2017.
JG will be a great QB and I can see why BB wants to keep him ... but I just don't see how the Pats are able to keep him on the roster until Brady is done.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
OK, I should have been more clear. Those odds are obviously debatable but I wanted to put a stake in the ground upon which to begin to have a discussion. I MO those odds are high enough to warrant a weight and see approach with jimmy g. Specifically, keeping jimmy g for one more year, franchising him and trading him if none of those happen. The cost then is a slightly lower value received but the offset gain is protection in case one of those negative outcomes arises. As such, I too think it is far more likely that jimmy g is NOT the Patriots QB in 2018.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I suspect there are a handful of people that know more about this situation than the rest of us do: TB12, BB, Senior Kraft, Junior Kraft, and Don Yee (agent to both QB's).
I still think there is a much greater chance that Brady retires if NE wins another SB than is betting led on. It wouldn't shock me if BB and TB have regular discussions about if Tom wants to keep at it and who knows, maybe Bill is already advising Tom to get out while he can still walk and think normally. Sure, Brady says he wants to play forever, but we know that's impossible. Another year of getting knocked around and maybe Brady starts to feel every bump and bruise. Maybe Gisele puts her foot down and tells Brady to pick between her and football. Maybe Goodell concocts another conspiracy and Brady gets suspended for a year or Brady is found to use artificial assistance and pharmacology products to stay so young and productive.
It may be as plain and simple as BB not having to worry about the QB spot for another year and then analyzing what to do in 2018. At some point, however, there will be a point where another QB is a better option for NE than Brady, and I would think it would be best for all parties involved to avoid getting to that point, Benching or cutting Brady would not be a good look.
I still think there is a much greater chance that Brady retires if NE wins another SB than is betting led on. It wouldn't shock me if BB and TB have regular discussions about if Tom wants to keep at it and who knows, maybe Bill is already advising Tom to get out while he can still walk and think normally. Sure, Brady says he wants to play forever, but we know that's impossible. Another year of getting knocked around and maybe Brady starts to feel every bump and bruise. Maybe Gisele puts her foot down and tells Brady to pick between her and football. Maybe Goodell concocts another conspiracy and Brady gets suspended for a year or Brady is found to use artificial assistance and pharmacology products to stay so young and productive.
It may be as plain and simple as BB not having to worry about the QB spot for another year and then analyzing what to do in 2018. At some point, however, there will be a point where another QB is a better option for NE than Brady, and I would think it would be best for all parties involved to avoid getting to that point, Benching or cutting Brady would not be a good look.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The legend of JG continues to grow. This writer suggests Garoppolo would have fetched three first round picks in a trade. Lol.
http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2017/04/30/sunday-7-patriots-2017-draft-will-be-defined-by-veterans-brandin-cooks-kony-ealy-mike-gillislee-2/
http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2017/04/30/sunday-7-patriots-2017-draft-will-be-defined-by-veterans-brandin-cooks-kony-ealy-mike-gillislee-2/
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Just go back through this thread from the beginning: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/753219-patriots-looking-for-a-1st-and-4th-for-garoppolo/#comment-19735891
It's worth a pretty good laugh.
.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I believe the chances of Brady retiring if (when?) he wins another SB are slim. As his father said, it will likely end badly and he will need to be dragged off the field.
Re the team, I agree it may be as simple as BB not worrying about it this yr and evaluating the situation again in 2018.
Yes at some point the team will need to move on but I think (hope!) it is at least 2,3+ years away and even then I don't expect Brady will go quietly into the night. Maybe he spends the last year or 2 of his career playing in home town SF should the timing work out?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If Peyton Manning and Joe Montana can be cut to make room for the next franchise guy, so can Brady. I suspect the Pats will do everything they can to avoid that happening, but if there's a point BB is convinced that JG can win more games than Brady then #12 will move on one way or another.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
If the NE-Atl championship game did not have a SuperBowl-length halftime for the Pats' totally-gassed QB to recover, we'd know why BB is being so fussy about keeping JG.
That Belichick spent this offseason trading for more "now" on offense than he has in his entire career and wont let his backup go for less than a king's ransom has me wondering what he's wondering. Did he see the same sweaty, scared face on TB i did in the 1st half of the SB? Is the continuity just as important to him as the championships? Is he amping the offense for good Brady, bad Brady, no Brady, post-Brady? Is JG '17 a bridge to Brissett or retirement or not a bridge at all?
ETA: Should remind that i believed BB intended JG to be his franchise QB - no matter what Brady wanted - beginning in '18 until he wouldnt take the needle in order to start Game 3 this past season.
That Belichick spent this offseason trading for more "now" on offense than he has in his entire career and wont let his backup go for less than a king's ransom has me wondering what he's wondering. Did he see the same sweaty, scared face on TB i did in the 1st half of the SB? Is the continuity just as important to him as the championships? Is he amping the offense for good Brady, bad Brady, no Brady, post-Brady? Is JG '17 a bridge to Brissett or retirement or not a bridge at all?
ETA: Should remind that i believed BB intended JG to be his franchise QB - no matter what Brady wanted - beginning in '18 until he wouldnt take the needle in order to start Game 3 this past season.
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GregR
Footballguy
Now imagine if he'd already thrown 95 or, dare I even say, 96 passes in the NFL, instead of just 94...
FICTION! Brady is own record multiple times saying that he wants to play at least into his mid 40’s...I’m not a believer in conspiracy theories.
Bossman
Footballguy
"Obviously, I want to play," Garoppolo added, via USA Today. "That's just the competitor in me. I think everyone out here wants to play. And we come out here and compete every day for that opportunity. If you go out and earn it, it's yours."
JG won't sign an extension to be Bradys back up ... and the Patriots won't pay him franchise tag money to be a backup.
If Brady does not retire after this season there is only ONE way that the Patriots can keep JG on their roster next year .... they trade Brady.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Last I heard NE turned down 6 1st round picks because Garappolo is going to make Brady and Rodgers look like Ryan Leaf in comparison to him.
Bossman
Footballguy
I wonder if BB is keeping JG on the roster as a way to motivate Brady.
Not that Brady needs much motivation but it is sure to have some effect on his preparation-effort level ...when the guy believed to be your replacement is ready to go in at a moments notice.
As unlikely as this might be, I would imagine Bradys biggest fear ... being pulled from a game for poor play ... and JG comes in and facilitates a comeback.
This thought should keep Brady eating healthy / exercising / brain training ... and whatever else he's doing to stay young / productive.
Really wouldn't have that fear / extra motivation with only Brissette on the bench behind him.
Not that Brady needs much motivation but it is sure to have some effect on his preparation-effort level ...when the guy believed to be your replacement is ready to go in at a moments notice.
As unlikely as this might be, I would imagine Bradys biggest fear ... being pulled from a game for poor play ... and JG comes in and facilitates a comeback.
This thought should keep Brady eating healthy / exercising / brain training ... and whatever else he's doing to stay young / productive.
Really wouldn't have that fear / extra motivation with only Brissette on the bench behind him.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You really think Brady is going to lose even one wink of sleep over concerns about Garappolo? I don't get that train of thought at all. We aren't talking about Steve Young sitting behind Montana or Rodgers sitting behind Favre here. .
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Brady does not seem like the kind of guy that needs motivation. He lays his desire to win out there on the field and that pushes him more than some concept of job security ever could.
Bossman
Footballguy
Your opinion.
Patriots thought enough of JG to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him ... while Brady was still seemingly at the top of his game.
Now 3 years of training and evaluating him, they stated publicly (thru Schefter) that there was no offer that they would consider trading him for.
I'm thinking that the Patriots value of JG is somewhere in the Steve Young range at this point.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I have heard / read, the Pats drafted JG because he fell farther then they thought he would and they were already starting to have some potential concerns about Brady's age.
As far as trading him or not trading him this year before the draft, I also read that despite what the other pundits may have felt, the Pats were not all that impressed with the talent that was available. Rumors circulated that the guy they wanted in the first round would have required a Top 5 pick . . . and no deal was available to them to accomplish that. If they could have had a mid to late first round pick for JG and they didn't see someone they really liked, not sure what the point would have been to trade him. If the other option was trading him for a first next year instead, then they probably fely they would just rather have Brady insurance.
I still think that the Brady plays 5 more years narrative is Brady's hopes and dreams but may not be the Pats true wishes. If Brady is still playing lights out, then he sticks around. If he gets hurt or starts to slip, if BB had his way he would consider making a change / move.
Least amount of thought by the parties involved is having 2017 play out and revisit where things stand a year from now. More thought by those involved may be a succession framework for Brady to pass the baton to JG (in a lot fewer seasons than 5). They may have a defined schedule or timeline already . . . but they aren't going to announce it.
As for the Steve Young stuff, who really knows what JG is at this stage. He's made two starts. After two career starts, Matt Flynn had 730 passing yards and 9 TD . . . and where is he now?
Bossman
Footballguy
(USA Today Fantasy Sports) New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo has head coach Bill Belichick enamored by his ability, according to one scout. "Bill thinks he's got the next great one," the scout said. "I watched his snaps. I think he can be that. (Garoppolo) has a great base, and his mechanics are close enough to (QB Tom Brady) that you appreciate his willingness to learn and the coaching he's gotten there."
Boston
Footballguy
Interesting outing...IMO the stats look better then he played...there were a few bad plays that he just can't be making...the kid can play once he gets comfortable...he has a nice poise to his game...it look like he is more effective when his legs are in the play...just seems to have more rhythm when he is moving...
