2014 ACC Basketball [Closed - use 2015 thread instead] (1 Viewer)

[sporthenry]

You just can't have it both ways. Before the season, you were justifying their preseason ranking. Now, you are calling a worse position, coach of the year worthy. Even had Hairston played, he is a borderline first round pick so it isn't like they'd have a ton more talent. Not saying that Hairston wasn't some of the cause for the drop but talent wise, even with a less talented roster, they still blow teams like Belmont and the like out of the water talent wise.

They've been extremely inconsistent. Somewhat expected from a young team, but that doesn't prove they don't have talent. Perhaps they aren't as talented as Kenpom indicates and Roy has done a great job or perhaps they are as good but Roy just did a terrible job during stretches. Either way, just like we'll find out more about Syracuse in the coming weeks, we'll find out more about UNC as well.

And Bennett has COY sewed up. Maybe Brownell has an outside shot.

 

[Koya]

Well, that was painful to watch. On so many levels.

Much as you sorta know you "need" to lose one to go long come tourney time, it still sucks.

 

[TLEF316]

Yeah, that's not a good loss. The caught some breaks down the stretch too. Didn't look like Jackson touched the Ennis pass and Ennis also got away with a walk with a minute to go (when he pump faked at the top of the key, shot a floater and got his own rebound). They put him on the foul line when it should have been going the other way.

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

 

[scoobus]

Well, that was painful to watch. On so many levels.

Much as you sorta know you "need" to lose one to go long come tourney time, it still sucks.

They really just "need" to start playing better, hopefully getting Keita back and healthy will help.

 

[Koya]

Well, that was painful to watch. On so many levels.

Much as you sorta know you "need" to lose one to go long come tourney time, it still sucks.

They really just "need" to start playing better, hopefully getting Keita back and healthy will help.

No Keita was huge. ####in' deja vu here and I'm not liking it.

NEED to be healthy and as you note, 'Cuse has not been playing well lately. When you are undefeated and keep winning ugly games, you can legitimately say that until it ends, they get the benefit of the doubt.

That time's over. A big stretch that will tell us another old adage: They'll be as good as they are. If this is the team that many of us think is one of the elite in the Country, we will do what we need to. If we had just a sick run when everything went our way, we will peter out.

I think its more the former, but we will see. And I'm hardly objective, here.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

So UVA going to win the ACC now?

 

[scoobus]

So UVA going to win the ACC now?

Seems highly possible. Do you know what the tiebreaker is, say if Syracuse beat UVA but lost to Duke, and the both ended up with 2 losses?

 

[tdoss]

I really don't get the negativity around UNC. Yeah, they don't have the talent that they typically do, but they still have more than most. They have a hall of fame coach who's made it to 300 wins in the ACC faster than everyone. Is this just grandstanding because it's an off year and they aren't meeting the ridiculous expectations of their fan base that come every year? Is it just looking at things from an "on paper" approach? I don't get it.

I think maybe you don't get it because you're wrong about how much talent they have.

They might have more than the average NCAA team or even the average ACC team, but they certainlydon't have more than their peers in the rankings nationally or in the conference. They have a lot less on average, and just as importantly t's a lot younger on average. They rank 316th in the KenPom "experience" numbers, second-lowest in the conference to NC State. They don't have a single lottery-projected player, and until McAdoo turned his season around a month ago you could have argued that they didn't have a single guy who would get drafted in the first round.

And maybe most importantly, they don't have anyone that can shoot. They only have one player in the Top 500(!) in the NCAA in eFG%, Marcus Paige at 446th. They're 344th of 351 NCAA teams in FT% and 278th in 3PT%.

You're obviously right they have a good coach, but I don't understand how that's relevant. If you have a good coach you're not allowed to be happy with your team's play? that seems kinda stupid to me.

No idea what the bold means. On it's face, I agree it's stupid. No one said that They had a lot of drama going on early in the year. That's enough to distract anyone. MSU game they played was phenomenal. There was nothing lucky about that. They won by 14 or 15 points didn't they? IMO, it's one of the best wins in all of college basketball all year. How you dismiss a win like that is beyond me. As for all the KenPom stuff, I stated my opinions on the approach....take it FWIW.

Yeah you're right they played well vs. Michigan State.

Not sure what your point is, to be honest. I just tried to explain why I am so happy watching this team (and from what I can gather, why other UNC fans are happy too). You asked, I answered.

We can disagree on KenPom all you want, but you shouldn't need advanced stats to tell you that they have very little talent from a shooting standpoint. They brick everything. I mean, McDonald and Tokoto jumpers never even come close to looking like they might go in. McAdoo has been very good for a couple weeks, but he still shoots an awful percentage from the floor and the line to the point where teams go hack-a-Mac any time he gets free. Other than the occasional open look for Paige from three, their best offensive play is putbacks of missed jumpers.

I was asking about all the negativity around them....there's a TON down here. The other part I asked about (and I guess you sorta answered) was around the "they really aren't that good" and the "they don't have a lot of talent" etc. I think Roy's figured out a way to right the ship and minimize their weaknesses (shooting primarily). With that said, they have the talent to score (put up points)....they just did against FSU. I think their inexplicable problems at the line exacerbate that issue also. They aren't scoring 100 a game or anything, but it's not like it's so bad it's preventing them from winning.

It does sound like the end of the world when UNC fans describe this team...how on Earth have they won 7 in a row lately while simultaneously being one of the worst UNC teams in recent memory?

 

[sporthenry]

So UVA going to win the ACC now?

Seems highly possible. Do you know what the tiebreaker is, say if Syracuse beat UVA but lost to Duke, and the both ended up with 2 losses?

H2H is first tie breaker so it can't finished tied between UVA and Cuse.

 

[sporthenry]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

 

[The Commish]

Well, that was painful to watch. On so many levels.

Much as you sorta know you "need" to lose one to go long come tourney time, it still sucks.

They've been walking that fine line for a while now. They were bound to lose one of these close games. It's hard for me to judge this team. I've never really watched them before so I don't know if this is how they typically play or if they've just been incredibly lucky as of late.

 

[NMYMND]

So UVA going to win the ACC now?

Seems highly possible. Do you know what the tiebreaker is, say if Syracuse beat UVA but lost to Duke, and the both ended up with 2 losses?

This seems like UVa's year. Really good team taking advantage of the favorable schedule - only playing Cuse, Duke, UNC and Pitt one time apiece. I like the Hoos to take the 1 seed for the ACC tourney, but they need to beat Syracuse at home to earn the tiebreaker, because that last game at Maryland could be really difficult.

If they are the 1, that likely puts Cuse and Duke as the 2-3, so you can see a path where UVa takes care of Pitt or UNC (or maybe even Clemson or State) in the semis and then gets one good shot for the ACC title.

As for Cuse - does anyone that can remember think there is a little bit of similarity to the 2001 UNC team - Doherty's first year? They reached No. 1 after an emotional win at Duke (and a few more games). Then went to last place Clemson and lost - starting a string of 5 straight Sunday losses to end the season. It was a very disappointing year for finishing 26-7 and briefly reaching No. 1.

I'm not trying to hint that there are major locker room issues such as the ones UNC had, but it just seems like Cuse could be limping into the final weeks.

 

[TobiasFunke]

You just can't have it both ways. Before the season, you were justifying their preseason ranking. Now, you are calling a worse position, coach of the year worthy. Even had Hairston played, he is a borderline first round pick so it isn't like they'd have a ton more talent. Not saying that Hairston wasn't some of the cause for the drop but talent wise, even with a less talented roster, they still blow teams like Belmont and the like out of the water talent wise.

They've been extremely inconsistent. Somewhat expected from a young team, but that doesn't prove they don't have talent. Perhaps they aren't as talented as Kenpom indicates and Roy has done a great job or perhaps they are as good but Roy just did a terrible job during stretches. Either way, just like we'll find out more about Syracuse in the coming weeks, we'll find out more about UNC as well.

And Bennett has COY sewed up. Maybe Brownell has an outside shot.

I wasn't justifying their preseason ranking in the preseason. I don't really care about those sort of things. I was pointing out to people like you who were whining about how UNC always gets overrated that the Heels in fact come pretty close to matching or exceeding their preseason rankings every season.

And I'm sorry, but if you think that being ranked 21st nationally/4th in the ACC without Hairston somehow means that preseason rankings that had them in the 10-12 range and 3rd in the ACC with Hairston "egregiously overrated" them, we just don't have any common ground for further discussion. Because that's ridiculous. Even without the Hairston factor that's not exactly a huge disparity.

I don't care about COY. I think it's a dumb award, as I've said many times including in the post from yesterday you're now arguing about. I simply said that this is Roy Williams' best in-season coaching job, which it is. Bennett winning the ACC COY award doesn't change that.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

Last night won't hurt Syracuse's seeding. How they perform against Duke, Virginia, and the ACC tournament will determine their seeding.

 

[MattFancy]

Big game tonight for the Heels. A win at home against Duke would go a long way for this team's confidence. Can they do it? I have no idea. Maybe Duke will be looking ahead to Syracuse?

 

[The Commish]

I really don't get the negativity around UNC. Yeah, they don't have the talent that they typically do, but they still have more than most. They have a hall of fame coach who's made it to 300 wins in the ACC faster than everyone. Is this just grandstanding because it's an off year and they aren't meeting the ridiculous expectations of their fan base that come every year? Is it just looking at things from an "on paper" approach? I don't get it.

I think maybe you don't get it because you're wrong about how much talent they have.

They might have more than the average NCAA team or even the average ACC team, but they certainlydon't have more than their peers in the rankings nationally or in the conference. They have a lot less on average, and just as importantly t's a lot younger on average. They rank 316th in the KenPom "experience" numbers, second-lowest in the conference to NC State. They don't have a single lottery-projected player, and until McAdoo turned his season around a month ago you could have argued that they didn't have a single guy who would get drafted in the first round.

And maybe most importantly, they don't have anyone that can shoot. They only have one player in the Top 500(!) in the NCAA in eFG%, Marcus Paige at 446th. They're 344th of 351 NCAA teams in FT% and 278th in 3PT%.

You're obviously right they have a good coach, but I don't understand how that's relevant. If you have a good coach you're not allowed to be happy with your team's play? that seems kinda stupid to me.

No idea what the bold means. On it's face, I agree it's stupid. No one said that They had a lot of drama going on early in the year. That's enough to distract anyone. MSU game they played was phenomenal. There was nothing lucky about that. They won by 14 or 15 points didn't they? IMO, it's one of the best wins in all of college basketball all year. How you dismiss a win like that is beyond me. As for all the KenPom stuff, I stated my opinions on the approach....take it FWIW.

Yeah you're right they played well vs. Michigan State.

Not sure what your point is, to be honest. I just tried to explain why I am so happy watching this team (and from what I can gather, why other UNC fans are happy too). You asked, I answered.

We can disagree on KenPom all you want, but you shouldn't need advanced stats to tell you that they have very little talent from a shooting standpoint. They brick everything. I mean, McDonald and Tokoto jumpers never even come close to looking like they might go in. McAdoo has been very good for a couple weeks, but he still shoots an awful percentage from the floor and the line to the point where teams go hack-a-Mac any time he gets free. Other than the occasional open look for Paige from three, their best offensive play is putbacks of missed jumpers.

I was asking about all the negativity around them....there's a TON down here. The other part I asked about (and I guess you sorta answered) was around the "they really aren't that good" and the "they don't have a lot of talent" etc. I think Roy's figured out a way to right the ship and minimize their weaknesses (shooting primarily). With that said, they have the talent to score (put up points)....they just did against FSU. I think their inexplicable problems at the line exacerbate that issue also. They aren't scoring 100 a game or anything, but it's not like it's so bad it's preventing them from winning.

Don't let Tobias fool you. They have talent, it's just not shooting talent. They play good defense, rebound well, and play to their strengths on offense. Yeah the offensive rebound is their best offense, but you know what they do that well. It took Roy awhile to get them to play like this all the time, but it is effective and the guys playing do have talent in doing those things.

FWIW, they actually remind me a lot of Izzo's teams.

This was my EXACT thought. Honestly, there are several teams in the B1G that take the approach that UNC is taking this year.

This year's Michigan State team is 36th in the nation in eFG% at 53.3% and 47th in three point % at 37.9%. And it's not an anomaly- if you click through their last 5 or so seasons they're almost always in the top 100 in both categories, often in the Top 50, with the sole exception of 2011 when they went 19-15.

This year's UNC team is 201st at 48.9 and 278th at 31.9%, respectively.

You're obviously right that defense and rebounding take talent, and UNC has a good bit of that- Brice Johnson has the tools to be an amazing shot blocker and the bigs rebound well. But there's no lottery picks on the roster, maybe not even any first round picks,which as I said is also very young. And the college rules exacerbate their deficiencies with the shorter 3 point line and the narrower lane and no defensive 3 second calls.

If your point you are trying to make with the KenPom stats is that MSU is better at playing that type of game than UNC, I'd agree. That much should be obvious. I was simply pointing out that when I watch the team, I see a very similar approaches to the game. Lots of folks harp on the "shooter" aspect and ignore the "scorer" aspect. For whatever reason people (at least down here) want to ignore that they are still scoring regardless of how well they are shooting from the field. The mental challenge of free throws has been obvious and only the players can fix that for themselves. Change that and their record is much different. I simply don't buy the "they don't have much talent" angle. There's plenty of talent on this team, it's just not in the areas it normally is. Kudos to Roy for figuring out how to get them all on the same page and playing to their strengths.

 

[The Commish]

Big game tonight for the Heels. A win at home against Duke would go a long way for this team's confidence. Can they do it? I have no idea. Maybe Duke will be looking ahead to Syracuse?

Two keys to the game IMO:

1. UNC has to defend the three like they have been.

2. Duke has to keep Parker out of foul trouble battling with the guys inside.

Whichever team does the better job in those areas is probably going to win the game.

 

[TLEF316]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

 

[NMYMND]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

Last night won't hurt Syracuse's seeding. How they perform against Duke, Virginia, and the ACC tournament will determine their seeding.

Big game tonight for the Heels. A win at home against Duke would go a long way for this team's confidence. Can they do it? I have no idea. Maybe Duke will be looking ahead to Syracuse?

I'm still leaning toward no. Just see Duke with the comfortable 10-12 point win.

And no, Duke won't be looking ahead. As K said, this is a near-perfect simulation of a Final Four for them. I guess it could considered the same thing for UNC, though Wake doesn't seem to be Final Four caliber (even though Wake won the first game).

 

[TobiasFunke]

I really don't get the negativity around UNC. Yeah, they don't have the talent that they typically do, but they still have more than most. They have a hall of fame coach who's made it to 300 wins in the ACC faster than everyone. Is this just grandstanding because it's an off year and they aren't meeting the ridiculous expectations of their fan base that come every year? Is it just looking at things from an "on paper" approach? I don't get it.

I think maybe you don't get it because you're wrong about how much talent they have.

They might have more than the average NCAA team or even the average ACC team, but they certainlydon't have more than their peers in the rankings nationally or in the conference. They have a lot less on average, and just as importantly t's a lot younger on average. They rank 316th in the KenPom "experience" numbers, second-lowest in the conference to NC State. They don't have a single lottery-projected player, and until McAdoo turned his season around a month ago you could have argued that they didn't have a single guy who would get drafted in the first round.

And maybe most importantly, they don't have anyone that can shoot. They only have one player in the Top 500(!) in the NCAA in eFG%, Marcus Paige at 446th. They're 344th of 351 NCAA teams in FT% and 278th in 3PT%.

You're obviously right they have a good coach, but I don't understand how that's relevant. If you have a good coach you're not allowed to be happy with your team's play? that seems kinda stupid to me.

No idea what the bold means. On it's face, I agree it's stupid. No one said that They had a lot of drama going on early in the year. That's enough to distract anyone. MSU game they played was phenomenal. There was nothing lucky about that. They won by 14 or 15 points didn't they? IMO, it's one of the best wins in all of college basketball all year. How you dismiss a win like that is beyond me. As for all the KenPom stuff, I stated my opinions on the approach....take it FWIW.

Yeah you're right they played well vs. Michigan State.

Not sure what your point is, to be honest. I just tried to explain why I am so happy watching this team (and from what I can gather, why other UNC fans are happy too). You asked, I answered.

We can disagree on KenPom all you want, but you shouldn't need advanced stats to tell you that they have very little talent from a shooting standpoint. They brick everything. I mean, McDonald and Tokoto jumpers never even come close to looking like they might go in. McAdoo has been very good for a couple weeks, but he still shoots an awful percentage from the floor and the line to the point where teams go hack-a-Mac any time he gets free. Other than the occasional open look for Paige from three, their best offensive play is putbacks of missed jumpers.

I was asking about all the negativity around them....there's a TON down here. The other part I asked about (and I guess you sorta answered) was around the "they really aren't that good" and the "they don't have a lot of talent" etc. I think Roy's figured out a way to right the ship and minimize their weaknesses (shooting primarily). With that said, they have the talent to score (put up points)....they just did against FSU. I think their inexplicable problems at the line exacerbate that issue also. They aren't scoring 100 a game or anything, but it's not like it's so bad it's preventing them from winning.

Don't let Tobias fool you. They have talent, it's just not shooting talent. They play good defense, rebound well, and play to their strengths on offense. Yeah the offensive rebound is their best offense, but you know what they do that well. It took Roy awhile to get them to play like this all the time, but it is effective and the guys playing do have talent in doing those things.

FWIW, they actually remind me a lot of Izzo's teams.

This was my EXACT thought. Honestly, there are several teams in the B1G that take the approach that UNC is taking this year.

This year's Michigan State team is 36th in the nation in eFG% at 53.3% and 47th in three point % at 37.9%. And it's not an anomaly- if you click through their last 5 or so seasons they're almost always in the top 100 in both categories, often in the Top 50, with the sole exception of 2011 when they went 19-15.

This year's UNC team is 201st at 48.9 and 278th at 31.9%, respectively.

You're obviously right that defense and rebounding take talent, and UNC has a good bit of that- Brice Johnson has the tools to be an amazing shot blocker and the bigs rebound well. But there's no lottery picks on the roster, maybe not even any first round picks,which as I said is also very young. And the college rules exacerbate their deficiencies with the shorter 3 point line and the narrower lane and no defensive 3 second calls.

If your point you are trying to make with the KenPom stats is that MSU is better at playing that type of game than UNC, I'd agree. That much should be obvious. I was simply pointing out that when I watch the team, I see a very similar approaches to the game. Lots of folks harp on the "shooter" aspect and ignore the "scorer" aspect. For whatever reason people (at least down here) want to ignore that they are still scoring regardless of how well they are shooting from the field. The mental challenge of free throws has been obvious and only the players can fix that for themselves. Change that and their record is much different. I simply don't buy the "they don't have much talent" angle. There's plenty of talent on this team, it's just not in the areas it normally is. Kudos to Roy for figuring out how to get them all on the same page and playing to their strengths.

My only point has been that this team is historically bad by UNC standards at shooting from anywhere beyond 5 feet (including the FT line) which is easily the most important skill to have at the college level given the rules, especially this year with the foul calls in the rise. It's really fascinating, and I don't know how they're doing it, and I give Roy a lot of credit for that. Obviously they have very talented rebounders and defenders, but I've never seen a team like this have any sort of success at this level. I'm sure there's been some, but I don't know about them.

The KenPom numbers are only to show that they don't really resemble Izzo's Michigan State teams all that much. Those teams didn't have elite shooters, but they were at least decent. UNC can't throw a rock into the ocean.

 

[Tango]

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

SU is in its annual slump. Most teams that arent UCLA way-back-when have at least one. It will likely break out of the slump and be just fine and have as good a chance as any for a F4 berth. That being said, the scenarios outlined above show how a #1 East slot could be lost.

And if there are games in the NCAAT where both Grant & Cooney disappear and we're forced to iso Fair every play....then those games will be a coin-flip and we could be out as early as the 2nd round.

 

[TLEF316]

What happens in the following scenario?....

Duke beats Cuse

Cuse beat UVA

All 3 win the rest of their games

Cuse and UVA will both have 2 conference losses. Since Cuse won the only head to head, are they the one seed?

Then lets say Duke wins the conference tournament, going through UVA and cuse to get there. Now you've got Duke sitting with 5 losses and Cuse with 3. Duke is 2-1 vs Cuse and they have split the regular season and conference titles. Who gets the East # 1? I'm betting it would PROBABLY be Duke, but that would be a tough pill to swallow for Syracuse. (although I have a feeling the committee might do them a solid and put them as the 2 seed in WSU's bracket)

 

[The Commish]

I really don't get the negativity around UNC. Yeah, they don't have the talent that they typically do, but they still have more than most. They have a hall of fame coach who's made it to 300 wins in the ACC faster than everyone. Is this just grandstanding because it's an off year and they aren't meeting the ridiculous expectations of their fan base that come every year? Is it just looking at things from an "on paper" approach? I don't get it.

I think maybe you don't get it because you're wrong about how much talent they have.

They might have more than the average NCAA team or even the average ACC team, but they certainlydon't have more than their peers in the rankings nationally or in the conference. They have a lot less on average, and just as importantly t's a lot younger on average. They rank 316th in the KenPom "experience" numbers, second-lowest in the conference to NC State. They don't have a single lottery-projected player, and until McAdoo turned his season around a month ago you could have argued that they didn't have a single guy who would get drafted in the first round.

And maybe most importantly, they don't have anyone that can shoot. They only have one player in the Top 500(!) in the NCAA in eFG%, Marcus Paige at 446th. They're 344th of 351 NCAA teams in FT% and 278th in 3PT%.

You're obviously right they have a good coach, but I don't understand how that's relevant. If you have a good coach you're not allowed to be happy with your team's play? that seems kinda stupid to me.

No idea what the bold means. On it's face, I agree it's stupid. No one said that They had a lot of drama going on early in the year. That's enough to distract anyone. MSU game they played was phenomenal. There was nothing lucky about that. They won by 14 or 15 points didn't they? IMO, it's one of the best wins in all of college basketball all year. How you dismiss a win like that is beyond me. As for all the KenPom stuff, I stated my opinions on the approach....take it FWIW.

Yeah you're right they played well vs. Michigan State.

Not sure what your point is, to be honest. I just tried to explain why I am so happy watching this team (and from what I can gather, why other UNC fans are happy too). You asked, I answered.

We can disagree on KenPom all you want, but you shouldn't need advanced stats to tell you that they have very little talent from a shooting standpoint. They brick everything. I mean, McDonald and Tokoto jumpers never even come close to looking like they might go in. McAdoo has been very good for a couple weeks, but he still shoots an awful percentage from the floor and the line to the point where teams go hack-a-Mac any time he gets free. Other than the occasional open look for Paige from three, their best offensive play is putbacks of missed jumpers.

I was asking about all the negativity around them....there's a TON down here. The other part I asked about (and I guess you sorta answered) was around the "they really aren't that good" and the "they don't have a lot of talent" etc. I think Roy's figured out a way to right the ship and minimize their weaknesses (shooting primarily). With that said, they have the talent to score (put up points)....they just did against FSU. I think their inexplicable problems at the line exacerbate that issue also. They aren't scoring 100 a game or anything, but it's not like it's so bad it's preventing them from winning.

Don't let Tobias fool you. They have talent, it's just not shooting talent. They play good defense, rebound well, and play to their strengths on offense. Yeah the offensive rebound is their best offense, but you know what they do that well. It took Roy awhile to get them to play like this all the time, but it is effective and the guys playing do have talent in doing those things.

FWIW, they actually remind me a lot of Izzo's teams.

This was my EXACT thought. Honestly, there are several teams in the B1G that take the approach that UNC is taking this year.

This year's Michigan State team is 36th in the nation in eFG% at 53.3% and 47th in three point % at 37.9%. And it's not an anomaly- if you click through their last 5 or so seasons they're almost always in the top 100 in both categories, often in the Top 50, with the sole exception of 2011 when they went 19-15.

This year's UNC team is 201st at 48.9 and 278th at 31.9%, respectively.

You're obviously right that defense and rebounding take talent, and UNC has a good bit of that- Brice Johnson has the tools to be an amazing shot blocker and the bigs rebound well. But there's no lottery picks on the roster, maybe not even any first round picks,which as I said is also very young. And the college rules exacerbate their deficiencies with the shorter 3 point line and the narrower lane and no defensive 3 second calls.

If your point you are trying to make with the KenPom stats is that MSU is better at playing that type of game than UNC, I'd agree. That much should be obvious. I was simply pointing out that when I watch the team, I see a very similar approaches to the game. Lots of folks harp on the "shooter" aspect and ignore the "scorer" aspect. For whatever reason people (at least down here) want to ignore that they are still scoring regardless of how well they are shooting from the field. The mental challenge of free throws has been obvious and only the players can fix that for themselves. Change that and their record is much different. I simply don't buy the "they don't have much talent" angle. There's plenty of talent on this team, it's just not in the areas it normally is. Kudos to Roy for figuring out how to get them all on the same page and playing to their strengths.

My only point has been that this team is historically bad by UNC standards at shooting from anywhere beyond 5 feet (including the FT line) which is easily the most important skill to have at the college level given the rules, especially this year with the foul calls in the rise. It's really fascinating, and I don't know how they're doing it, and I give Roy a lot of credit for that. Obviously they have very talented rebounders and defenders, but I've never seen a team like this have any sort of success at this level. I'm sure there's been some, but I don't know about them.

The KenPom numbers are only to show that they don't really resemble Izzo's Michigan State teams all that much. Those teams didn't have elite shooters, but they were at least decent. UNC can't throw a rock into the ocean.

They're doing it by defending and offensive rebounding. That's a recipe that several teams use for success.

 

[The Commish]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

 

[TobiasFunke]

They're doing it by defending and offensive rebounding. That's a recipe that several teams use for success.

Look, we're just rehashing the same ground over and over here.

Yes, plenty of teams succeed with mediocre shooting and excellent defense and offensive rebounding. Just this season I'd say Arizona and UVa both fall into that category and have had more success than UNC. But I don't know of anyone who did it with atrocious shooting. If you can find a team that ranked above 200th of the 350 or so Div 1 teams in eFG% (UNC is 202nd), 3 Pt% (UNC is 277th) and FT% (UNC is 344th) and still easily made the tournament, I'd love to hear about it. I'm sure someone's done that before, or at least something close to that. But I don't know about it, and I know that at a minimum it's highly unusual and worthy of note.

 

[Tango]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Ok, there's plenty of room for disagreement in something as subjective as this. A slump to me is worse than a brutal loss. A slump usually encompasses a brutal loss as a part of a losing streak, or maybe as a part of losing 3 of 5, etc. This recent run feels like we've lost 3 of 5, or something to that effect.

 

[MattFancy]

Big game tonight for the Heels. A win at home against Duke would go a long way for this team's confidence. Can they do it? I have no idea. Maybe Duke will be looking ahead to Syracuse?

Two keys to the game IMO:

1. UNC has to defend the three like they have been.

2. Duke has to keep Parker out of foul trouble battling with the guys inside.

Whichever team does the better job in those areas is probably going to win the game.

I'd also add McAdoo/Meeks/Johnson have to stay out of foul trouble for UNC. Got away with McAdoo being in foul trouble against FSU, but it won't happen against Duke.

 

[sporthenry]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

Last night won't hurt Syracuse's seeding. How they perform against Duke, Virginia, and the ACC tournament will determine their seeding.

In a vacuum, sure the loss doesn't hurt them. They still control their own destiny, but before last night, they probably could have wrapped up a #1 seed before the ACCT. Now it becomes murky. Looking back at previous years, it seems that the committee has pretty much determined 2-3 #1 seeds before conference tournaments. I'd contest without last night, and say Cuse goes 1-1 (or maybe even 0-2) against UVA/Duke, they would have been gotten a #1. Now, not so much.

 

[NMYMND]

I think Duke uses a lot of different defenders - Cook, Suliamon, Jones, Thornton - on Paige. Be physical, make him work hard to get the ball over mid-court and get the half-court offense started. Same strategy they used on Marshall in the 2010 ACC tourney final - big, physical defense on a small guard who is the entire key to the offense.

 

[sporthenry]

I think the key to the game is what happens in the paint when UNC has the ball. The biggest thing will be how many offensive rebounds Duke gives up. Beyond that, it'll be how effective they are at keeping UNC's penetration out of the paint.

 

[Koya]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

 

[tdoss]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

What if UVA beat Cuse and won out, winning the ACCT...wonder what seed they'd get?

 

[sporthenry]

What if UVA beat Cuse and won out...wonder what seed they'd get?

BracketMatrix has them as the last 4 seed. I think they jump up to a solid 3 seed beating 'Cuse. If winning out includes the ACCT, then I imagine it depends who they beat. They'd only be able to beat Duke or Cuse so that would be 2 very good wins but not sure if it'd be enough to push them to a 2.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

What if UVA beat Cuse and won out, winning the ACCT...wonder what seed they'd get?

If they go 17-1 in conference and then win the ACCT they should be the #1 seed in the East, IMO.

 

[Koya]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

What if UVA beat Cuse and won out, winning the ACCT...wonder what seed they'd get?

If they go 17-1 in conference and then win the ACCT they should be the #1 seed in the East, IMO.

No worse than a high 2 in that case.

But we have a long ways to go with a bunch of critical games.

 

[The Commish]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

It's one game for sure, but there's no denying that Syracuse has been treading on thin ice for a while now (or so it seems). As I said before, I've not watched much Syracuse prior to this year, so I am not sure if it's just the way they play or if there's something more to it. Lots of games that seem to be way to close for comfort. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all the #1 seeds in the tournament are out by the end of the S16....I'm not seeing a significant difference between the top 20ish teams in the country so it could just be that.

 

[Koya]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

It's one game for sure, but there's no denying that Syracuse has been treading on thin ice for a while now (or so it seems). As I said before, I've not watched much Syracuse prior to this year, so I am not sure if it's just the way they play or if there's something more to it. Lots of games that seem to be way to close for comfort. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all the #1 seeds in the tournament are out by the end of the S16....I'm not seeing a significant difference between the top 20ish teams in the country so it could just be that.

Your last sentence is exactly what I was thinking after I posted. Gone are the days of the singular dominant team, or top few teams. I don't know that it extends to twenty, but there are a good number of teams that are a bit better than the rest and all have weaknesses and strengths.

In terms of the tough games, you can look at that two ways. One is that this team has proven that it can win close games, make big plays and big shots, come through in the clutch and come back from a latish deficit. What the BC game reminded us of is that you don't always get the bounce, and there is a fine line between winning with a great shot and losing one poor late execution.

I'm more concerned over health of the team right now and hopefully Ennis is not getting fatigued at all because he did not look like the Ennis we've seen over the final minutes of last night's game.

 

[simey]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

That isn't want the papers are saying. News

 

[Koya]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

That isn't want the papers are saying. News

Papers like hyperbole.

It was an embarrassment. First #1 team to lose to a sub .500 team since like 1954.

But if they win at duke and beat UVA it's all high flying again. If they lose both they will be questioned and knocked down a bunch of pegs. Which would have happened regardless of last night.

The game was a disaster but it's effect on the season is not. That is for these next games to decide.

 

[Plorfu]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

That isn't want the papers are saying. News

Papers like hyperbole.

:whoosh:

 

[Tango]

I'm more concerned over health of the team right now and hopefully Ennis is not getting fatigued at all because he did not look like the Ennis we've seen over the final minutes of last night's game.

As everyone who is a SU person remembers well, SU hit its bottom last year at the end of the regular season vs G'town. That team couldnt do a thing offensively that day, yet it made the F4 weeks later after a nice run in what-was one of many memorable BETs.

So losses like last night dont mean much of anything on a standalone basis, no different than most Syracuse fans' posts about how the Duke win lacked any meaning.

Yes, things like health should be a concern more than anything...along with getting more consistent play from Grant and/or Cooney. Ennis shouldnt need to be a world-beater for us to win. He has enough to do without having to drop 20; Grant/Cooney will be the key in March. If even one of them shows up, then it's very, very difficult to beat Syracuse.

 

[Sammy3469]

Doesn't change much though. Everyone knows Syracuse is very good. They've gotten really lucky in a few close games recently but they're clearly a top 3-5 team and an obvious title threat.

Really? I think it changes quite a bit. That is a really bad loss, especially at home. And 'Cuse has now been taken to the wire 3 straight times. As far as seeding is concerned, I'm not sure they are the shoo-in for a #1 seed that everyone thought they were. They'll be dogs against UVA and Duke and are seemingly not playing their best.

If Duke beats them twice and wins the ACCT, who do you put on the #1 line? And if Duke gets the #1 in the East, that bumps 'Cuse out of MSG.

When we woke up yesterday, Syracuse was a slam dunk # 1 seed who had been on shaky ground recently. I think most of us thought they would lose eventually, but were still in the drivers seat for the East # 1 if they didn't collapse down the stretch.

The situation was basically the same when I woke up this morning. Syracuse is still super shaky (in terms of their recent play) but still very much in control of their own destiny. If Ennis had made another miracle 3 at the end of the game last night, I would feel the same way I do today.

IMO, Cuse is going to have to lose 3 more games to have any chance of NOT being a # 1. If they lose against Duke and UVA AND lose to one of them in the ACCT, they'd have 4 losses and could fall to a 2 seed. But the way things are shaping up right now, there just aren't enough other viable candidates to knock them out of that spot. I guess if Duke beats them twice and wins out, they could knock them out of the East # 1.

I know everyone glosses over them, but Nova could get the #1 seed too if 'Cuse fade a little

 

[Tango]

I know everyone glosses over them, but Nova could get the #1 seed too if 'Cuse fade a little

Even with the convincing HTH win for Syracuse over Nova?

 

[omally]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

That isn't want the papers are saying. News

Papers like hyperbole.

Dude, that newspaper is fake. She is just f'ing with you.

 

[Koya]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

Yes, it was brutal. But it's one game.

Now, 'Cuse needs to right the ship becomes the key part of the season is here (regular season at least), but come on... one terrible loss is one terrible loss. No more, no less.

That isn't want the papers are saying. News

Papers like hyperbole.

Dude, that newspaper is fake. She is just f'ing with you.

Ahh, my bad. The image that came up on my phone looked real enough. Not sure if it's more of an indictment of me or the press in general that of not even give it a paise

 

[fantasycurse42]

really looking forward to tonight... Heels have played well in these types of games this season.

 

[oso diablo]

Big game tonight for the Heels. A win at home against Duke would go a long way for this team's confidence. Can they do it? I have no idea. Maybe Duke will be looking ahead to Syracuse?

haha. no

 

[oso diablo]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

saw stat that it was the worst loss ever by a #1 ranked team, as measured by the # of losses the other team had.

 

[Koya]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

saw stat that it was the worst loss ever by a #1 ranked team, as measured by the # of losses the other team had.

First loss by a #1 at home to sub .500 since like 1954

 

[tdoss]

The BC loss is a bit different than a simple "slump"....that was a flat out terrible loss. I get skating by being classified that way, but that loss was brutal.

saw stat that it was the worst loss ever by a #1 ranked team, as measured by the # of losses the other team had.

First loss by a #1 at home to sub .500 since like 1954

This has to be the very definition of "looking ahead".

Find it interesting that the premise was brought up for Duke...as if Duke would ever overlook UNC. They could be winless and Duke would still "get up" for that game.

Cuse definitely must've been looking ahead to the matchup with Duke...how else can you explain the worst loss in history by #1 ranked team?