2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)

[Papa Schnay]

I'm wondering how much longer I'll be alive in this thing with both AP and Ray Rice stinking the joint up all year long. 4 weeks in, and still kicking somehow. lol.

 

[cincy11]

Survived the dreaded week 4 byes. Team has been very consistent but will not have enough studs to make any noise.

TOTAL 167.35 167.40 173.65 173.60
CUTOFF 138.15 140.20 134.65 137.60

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Still kicking!

 

[(HULK)]

After crushing the cut line for 3 weeks, I'm out all of a sudden. And I only had 2 players on bye. I'm suprised.

 

[BassNBrew]

I have little chance this week.

You didn't select Kelvin Benjamin?

Now I did. Just missing too many guys via Bye week and injury.

Benjamin is like having 2 or 3 guys. Post your team link. 120 is probably a safe number this week assuming a high ownership guy doesn't go Julio.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php?teamid=106070

Ummm…you cleared the cut line by about 50.

 

[1rebmun]

still squeeking by,

have used every player but Cameron

Drew Brees            $26     19.85  19.15  22.45  24.60           bye                                                                       Geno Smith             $7     17.85  20.40  19.80  13.85                                              bye                                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Eddie Lacy            $28      7.50   8.10   5.50  12.90                                bye                                                  Doug Martin           $24      2.60   0.00   0.00  13.60   out?           bye                                                                Dexter McCluster       $7      5.60   4.90   3.50   0.10                                bye                                                  Travaris Cadet         $3      1.50   0.00   0.90  12.00           bye                                                                       ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jordy Nelson          $25     17.30  35.90  10.90  32.80                                bye                                                  Emmanuel Sanders      $18     14.80  18.60  25.90   0.00                                                                                     Eric Decker           $15     12.40  16.30   2.90  14.80                                              bye                                    Greg Jennings          $9     17.80   1.40  12.00  10.20                                       bye                                           Miles Austin           $8      4.00  16.40  17.10   0.00                                                                                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Julius Thomas         $26     38.90  15.90  12.20   0.00                                                                                     Jordan Cameron        $22      7.70   0.00   3.80   0.00                                                                                     Jason Witten          $18      4.40   9.20  10.90  13.60                                              bye                                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Mason Crosby           $4      4.00  13.60   1.00  10.30                                bye                                                  Sebastian Janikowski   $3      2.00   2.00  13.30   2.00    bye                                                                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Baltimore Ravens       $4      0.00   8.00   1.00   4.00                                              bye                                    Pittsburgh Steelers    $3      3.00   0.00  13.00   3.00                                                     bye                             ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL                        141.15 158.10 135.85 148.80     CUTOFF                       138.15 140.20 134.65 137.60

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

still hovering in the 170s

Have to say with the current RB landscape this is going to be interesting

 

[eric rymer]

I'd prefer to avoid another week 3 kinda output but grateful to advance.

TOTAL 198.55 199.70 154.45 200.70
CUTOFF 138.15 140.20 134.65 137.60

 

[joffer]

still hovering in the 170s

Have to say with the current RB landscape this is going to be interesting

seems to be a common theme

 

[Rick James]

I don't have any of the hurt or suspended RBs....mine just suck.

 

[solorca]

Thank you Travis Kelce and Shane Vereen! I was a definite goner going into last night's game, but somehow those two managed enough production to put me two points above the cut line.

In a week where I used three people who scored less than seven points, I'm quite fortunate to still be alive.

 

[snogger]

I went into this week figuring I would be waving to the contest..

I had Adrian Peterson( out) Zac Stacy(bye), Knowshon Moreno(bye/out)

Which left me with Frank Gore and Roy Helu..

My TE's are Rudolph(Out) and Richard Rodgers, who up to this week had all zeros, but gets 8.2 this week

My kickers Greg Zuerlien(bye) and Alex Henry, who up to this week all zeros, but now gets 8..

Saying all of that, thanks to Rivers and Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson and even Bowe actually put up points this week, I had the highest scoring week( 174.75 ) so far

 

[jdkapow]

The only discrepancy in numbers I'm seeing is that you don't credit (well, debit) Roethlisberger for his -6 receiving yards (from the lateral play). QBs don't get ppr, but according to the rules, they should get receiving yards. Of course, he didn't have the reception on that play. It makes only a 0.05 change in the cut line, but of course it moves teams around at the margins.

You nailed it. Looks like FBG accounted for Roethlisberger's -6 receiving yards in the official results. That was the only discrepancy in the results. I updated my site accordingly and everything on my site (queriers, ownership stats, team pages, etc.) should now be updated through Week 4. Let me know if anything looks off.

There's the question of Jeremy Maclin. FBG is crediting him with 11.8, and the box score at Football Reference agrees: 5 catches, 68 yards. But at NFL.com, the Game Center says 4 catches for 57 yards, and the weekly NFL.com stats page agrees. That would be 9.7.

 

[Don Quixote]

The only discrepancy in numbers I'm seeing is that you don't credit (well, debit) Roethlisberger for his -6 receiving yards (from the lateral play). QBs don't get ppr, but according to the rules, they should get receiving yards. Of course, he didn't have the reception on that play. It makes only a 0.05 change in the cut line, but of course it moves teams around at the margins.

You nailed it. Looks like FBG accounted for Roethlisberger's -6 receiving yards in the official results. That was the only discrepancy in the results. I updated my site accordingly and everything on my site (queriers, ownership stats, team pages, etc.) should now be updated through Week 4. Let me know if anything looks off.

There's the question of Jeremy Maclin. FBG is crediting him with 11.8, and the box score at Football Reference agrees: 5 catches, 68 yards. But at NFL.com, the Game Center says 4 catches for 57 yards, and the weekly NFL.com stats page agrees. That would be 9.7.

Yahoo is showing a stat correction moving the 11 yards from Maclin to Brad Smith.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The only discrepancy in numbers I'm seeing is that you don't credit (well, debit) Roethlisberger for his -6 receiving yards (from the lateral play). QBs don't get ppr, but according to the rules, they should get receiving yards. Of course, he didn't have the reception on that play. It makes only a 0.05 change in the cut line, but of course it moves teams around at the margins.

You nailed it. Looks like FBG accounted for Roethlisberger's -6 receiving yards in the official results. That was the only discrepancy in the results. I updated my site accordingly and everything on my site (queriers, ownership stats, team pages, etc.) should now be updated through Week 4. Let me know if anything looks off.

There's the question of Jeremy Maclin. FBG is crediting him with 11.8, and the box score at Football Reference agrees: 5 catches, 68 yards. But at NFL.com, the Game Center says 4 catches for 57 yards, and the weekly NFL.com stats page agrees. That would be 9.7.

Yahoo is showing a stat correction moving the 11 yards from Maclin to Brad Smith.

Per the contest rules:

All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.

All stat changes made by the league prior to 11:59 pm Tuesday will be incorporated into the contest scoring and standings reflecting these changes will be posted on Wednesday morning. Users have until 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday to report possible scoring errors to drinen@footballguys.com. The standings posted on Thursday morning are considered official, even if an error (by the league, by footballguys, or by anyone or anything else) is later discovered.

So if there was a stat correction, Drinen may update the results. My site won't automatically do this (I stop running the scoring script after MNF) but maybe going forward I'll run an update on Thursday morning to make sure that my results remain aligned with the official results, in the event that FBG makes any updates.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Nate Freese getting cut left me without a kicker, since my other one was on a bye. Barely missed the cut and I'm out. Do I still get a Subscriber Contest T-Shirt that I can point to?

:shirt:

 

[wolfies30]

Made it through, but I don't think for long.

Kaepernick

Cutler

Bortles

Really happy with this trio. Consistent low to mid 20's every week. I wanted mid-range guys with upside, along with later byes, in the hopes Bortles would be installed by mid-year. It's worked out nicely.

Ball

Bell

Gore

Deangelo

Stewart

Cunningham

I was super excited about this group. I was all-in on Ball from the beginning of the season. It appeared to me that Bell would be more and more involved in Detroit, and that this format was perfect for him. Old man Gore is not completely done, and I figured some consistent Flex points would suffice. Locking up the Panthers backfield seemed like a smart move with a weak receiving core. With both Panthers injured and Bell's concussion, these guys could do me in shortly as byes approach. I don't have a lot of regrets as the only other RB's I seriously considered were Ingram and Martin.

Dez

Cordarelle

Rueben Randle

Kelvin

Streater

John Brown

The crew that's been saving me. Some pretty big games from the cheap guys. Losing Streater is a real bummer. He had some nice games at the end of last year and I really thought he was a sneaky play this year and his ownership would be low. That aside, these guys have been great for me.

Graham

Rudolph

Rivera

Graham has been Graham. Rudolph injury will do me in week 6, if I get past this week. Rolling with only Rivera in a 1.5 TE ppr is brutal, especially with no other big name TE's on bye. The hope was Rudolph could be respectable and hold down the fort. Maybe Rivera goes Donnell that week.

Nugent

Freese

Vinatieri

Simply cheap kickers on a teams I thought would score a lot. Freese is gone, but the other two have had big games.

Titans

Colts

No real thought here. Took the two teams named in the Defense by Committee article on FBG.

No real regrets here. I think my planning was solid and I was prepared for most situations. No studs having the same byes, taking a flier on Bortles for late season, Panthers backfield, etc. Looking back, my biggest planning mistake was overestimating Bell's value in Detroit. Of course, the timing of Rudolph's injury is God-awful and bad luck. However, many out there have it worse with AP, Rice, Moreno, Lesean, etc.

I wonder if it is better to get whacked quickly, like those who got hit by everything at once, or to die a long, slow death you see coming but can't avoid. I need a miracle Week 5 and 6 to get past the injuries and Graham's bye week. Then I can focus on being consistent, yet still have no shot! I just realized I wrote a book, but I am too far into this to change it. Thanks for reading and good luck to all! This is my first year in this, and I absolutely love it.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Only 9 entries left with AJ Green and Jordan Cameron. Go time!

-QG

 

[jdkapow]

Assuming the Maclin correction gets made, it will affect these teams:

Teams that show as OUT but will be IN:

108727 Too Fat Guuys, 110910 jericko68, 111744 Entry 111744, 106359 Go Vols, 111662 Mike3851, 100123 Entry 100123, 100437 Adventure Time, 100585 Entry 100585, 103249 Entry 103249, 106992 Entry 106992

Teams that show as IN but will be OUT:

108452 marrone04, 100803 Entry 100803, 106448 Entry 106448, 112495 CMLew, 111302 Entry 111302, 114224 Entry 114224, 100099 Hex, 104871 PONDER THIS, 104494 romos butterfin

(Actually, this may not be 100% correct. If teams have a player very close to Maclin and only one of them counted this week, the adjustment won't be the full 2.1 points. But it's the best estimate I have without rerunning everything and comparing, which is a real pain.)

 

[comfortably numb]

I'm the only guy with Forsett and Asiata

The domestic violence gods smiled down on me

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/103635.php

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Size Count Alive Survival Rate

18 5667 2416 42.60%

19 1922 942 49.00%

20 1519 844 55.60%

21 1176 695 59.10%

22 1015 618 60.90%

23 744 470 63.20%

24 542 374 69.00%

25 459 296 64.50%

26 331 210 63.40%

27 253 181 71.50%

28 219 157 71.70%

29 177 128 72.30%

30 279 192 68.80%

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Random trivia:

Demarco Murray and Martellus Bennett are the only two players who have counted every single week for every single entry that owns them.

Antonio Brown comes in at 99.9% - there were 16 entries that didn't use his 17 points in week 2.

 

[MCguidance]

I imagine I am just a sham at this point moving along with luck. Probably the longest I've been alive though. I'm no good at these things.

 

[matuski]

NO and WAS defenses are going to be my downfall.

 

[fantasy stud]

Pretty happy to still be alive with McCoy and Ellington as my top 2 rbs. Hopefully, they will get going and I get back to the top 250

 

[QuizGuy66]

Random trivia:

Demarco Murray and Martellus Bennett are the only two players who have counted every single week for every single entry that owns them.

Antonio Brown comes in at 99.9% - there were 16 entries that didn't use his 17 points in week 2.

Hey Iggy, maybe an interesting metric will be how many points that counted each player scored.

(e.g. points times number of teams that used him)

-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Random trivia:

Demarco Murray and Martellus Bennett are the only two players who have counted every single week for every single entry that owns them.

Antonio Brown comes in at 99.9% - there were 16 entries that didn't use his 17 points in week 2.

Hey Iggy, maybe an interesting metric will be how many points that counted each player scored.(e.g. points times number of teams that used him)

-QG

I don't think this is exactly what you're asking for, but I added a few columns of output to the 2014 player querier: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/currquerier/index.php

Where it says "Show all player stats for week..." if you pick a week and submit, you'll now see all the players in the contest, their score for that week, how many teams entered the week with that player, how many teams started that player, and how many teams with that player were eliminated that week.

So you could grab that data for any week and do (points scored) x (# or % started) or whatever it is you'd like to see.

 

[93_Confirmed]

Will somoene be posting those interesting stats and awards for Week 4 or did I miss it in a previous post?

 

[QuizGuy66]

QB

Jake Locker $7 22.70 1042 439 Thanks Iggy, yeah using the example above 439 people actually used Jake Locker and he got 22.70

So his impact on the contest was 9,965.3

His per $ impact on the conest was 1,423.61 for this week

At some point I'll try to sift through this all and maybe we can get an MVP (both total and per $)

-QG

 

[jdkapow]

A little busy this week.

Awards and notable teams of the week. Note that these awards are based on the NFL's Jeremy Maclin correction, which isn't reflected in the FBG report yet.

Strongest Living Team: Still RHON, Entry 100300, averaging over 209 points per week.

Strongest Dead Team: HRNSUP, Entry 102779, averaging 189 per week, in 258th place overall.

Keep Your Day Job Award: Still Entry 100869, with an average score of 78.5, almost 5 points below the next-worst team.

Safest Team: For the third week in a row, AdamAfrica, Entry 102306, never less than 64.2 above the cut line.

Just Skating By Award: Entry 104004, in their best week, cleared the cut line by 6.55 points. H Man, the previous champion here, was eliminated this week.

Icarus Award: Lavender Fleas, Entry 106325, averaged over 200 points per week through the first three weeks, sitting 15th overall. Lavender Fleas is now dead.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 105026 was eliminated in Week 1 but has averaged 189 since then.

Notable Teams:

QBs: Big Shuffy, Entry 113318, is still hanging in there with 10 QBs.

RBs: We lost another 12-RB team. Three of the original six are still around.

WRs: Same as last week: two 13-WR teams remain, The Dogs of War (Entry 107531) and Entry 102255.

TEs: Same as last week: three teams with 7 TEs survive.

PKs: Same as last week: 15-Kicker Guy survives.

DEFs: We're down to one team with 8 defenses, Entry 113411.

And me, you ask? With a strong week, I moved up over 700 places and am currently sitting in 1315th among living teams.

More to come later...

 

[jdkapow]

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: None. There are 180 players who've seen over half their teams die. David Ausberry is now the closest to being eliminated, despite actually scoring points this week. Only 2 of the 16 teams that own him are still alive.

The Biggest Mistake: Still Wes Welker, down to 27% survival rate. A notable new entry here is A.J. Green, down to 33% survival thanks to the bye week.

The Survivor: Still DeMarco Murray. 80% of teams with Murray are still alive.

The Parasite: Dri Archer. He was on 394 teams and 61% of them are still alive, despite Archer producing a TOTAL of 1.5 points.

The Martyr: Justin Forsett. Double-digit points every week, but only 34% of his owners are alive. Interestingly, every player below him in survival percentage has at least one zero week.

Haven't had a chance to go through the dead money list yet. I'll try to do that soon.

 

[jdkapow]

QB

Jake Locker $7 22.70 1042 439Thanks Iggy, yeah using the example above 439 people actually used Jake Locker and he got 22.70

So his impact on the contest was 9,965.3

His per $ impact on the conest was 1,423.61 for this week

At some point I'll try to sift through this all and maybe we can get an MVP (both total and per $)

-QG

I haven't done exactly the calculation you propose, but I think you'll find that Kelvin Benjamin owns the per $ category. A little harder to gauge the other one, but either Antonio Brown or Jay Cutler look like the most likely contenders.

But you could also think of the MVP as that guy that gives his teams the biggest boost relative to the cut line. This would be a huge performer owned on very few teams, who therefore get the most out of every point he scores. I think you'll find that those guys are Delanie Walker (overall) and Matt Asiata (per dollar).

 

[Raback]

I'm in trouble if my RB's don't rebound, but so far really happy with the decision to load up at TE with Graham, Ertz, H. Miller and Kelce. That position has been carrying my team just as I planned.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I have little chance this week.

You didn't select Kelvin Benjamin?

Now I did. Just missing too many guys via Bye week and injury.

Benjamin is like having 2 or 3 guys. Post your team link. 120 is probably a safe number this week assuming a high ownership guy doesn't go Julio.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php?teamid=106070

Ummm…you cleared the cut line by about 50.

Yeah, best score of the year. Better to be lucky than smart.

 

[QuizGuy66]

A little busy this week.

Awards and notable teams of the week. Note that these awards are based on the NFL's Jeremy Maclin correction, which isn't reflected in the FBG report yet.

Strongest Living Team: Still RHON, Entry 100300, averaging over 209 points per week.

Strongest Dead Team: HRNSUP, Entry 102779, averaging 189 per week, in 258th place overall.

Keep Your Day Job Award: Still Entry 100869, with an average score of 78.5, almost 5 points below the next-worst team.

Safest Team: For the third week in a row, AdamAfrica, Entry 102306, never less than 64.2 above the cut line.

Just Skating By Award: Entry 104004, in their best week, cleared the cut line by 6.55 points. H Man, the previous champion here, was eliminated this week.

Icarus Award: Lavender Fleas, Entry 106325, averaged over 200 points per week through the first three weeks, sitting 15th overall. Lavender Fleas is now dead.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 105026 was eliminated in Week 1 but has averaged 189 since then.

Notable Teams:

QBs: Big Shuffy, Entry 113318, is still hanging in there with 10 QBs.

RBs: We lost another 12-RB team. Three of the original six are still around.

WRs: Same as last week: two 13-WR teams remain, The Dogs of War (Entry 107531) and Entry 102255.

TEs: Same as last week: three teams with 7 TEs survive.

PKs: Same as last week: 15-Kicker Guy survives.

DEFs: We're down to one team with 8 defenses, Entry 113411.

And me, you ask? With a strong week, I moved up over 700 places and am currently sitting in 1315th among living teams.

More to come later...

Fixed to reflect proper reverence to 15-Kicker Guy

-QG

 

[dagman]

I think I could maybe make the survivor Elevator award. 53.85 over the cut, .5 over the cut, 31.25 over the cut, 2.55 over the cut.

 

[apalmer]

Random trivia:

Demarco Murray and Martellus Bennett are the only two players who have counted every single week for every single entry that owns them.

Antonio Brown comes in at 99.9% - there were 16 entries that didn't use his 17 points in week 2.

Hey Iggy, maybe an interesting metric will be how many points that counted each player scored.(e.g. points times number of teams that used him)

-QG

I don't think this is exactly what you're asking for, but I added a few columns of output to the 2014 player querier: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/currquerier/index.php

Where it says "Show all player stats for week..." if you pick a week and submit, you'll now see all the players in the contest, their score for that week, how many teams entered the week with that player, how many teams started that player, and how many teams with that player were eliminated that week.

So you could grab that data for any week and do (points scored) x (# or % started) or whatever it is you'd like to see.

Iggy, Not to steal jdkapow's thunder, but any way you could add a cumulative team score page for overall standings (or am I missing it)?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Iggy, Not to steal jdkapow's thunder, but any way you could add a cumulative team score page for overall standings (or am I missing it)?

I've added a page with the top 500 overall cumulative scores for the season here: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

 

[apalmer]

Iggy, Not to steal jdkapow's thunder, but any way you could add a cumulative team score page for overall standings (or am I missing it)?

I've added a page with the top 500 overall cumulative scores for the season here: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

Thanks!

 

[BaBastage]

I have less time between family and job this year than prior years. So I'm not sure I'll have time to do this, but I'm going to throw it out there in case either I manage or someone with a better combination of time, interest, and expertise wants to noodle on it.

I think a "Cut Line Projector" might be a viable item. In essence, one could track the cumulative players left to play, and project the remaining against the current cut line.

I'd start by creating a denominator of player * rosters * player cost and divide the already-counted by it.

Example:

Player A @ $15, on 5 live rosters, already played = 15X5 (75)

Player B, @ $20 on 2 live rosters, yet to play = $20X2 (40)

Player C @ $5, on 3 live rosters, yet to play = $5X3 (15)

In which case 75 / (75+40+15) = 57.7% of cut line has been reached.

Unfortunately, it’s not that simple, because as games progress, players that have yet to play don’t add entirely to the cut line. One would have to compare the same ratio to prior weeks at that stage of player-roster-dollars played.

So, for example, let’s say last week when 57.7% of the player-roster-dollars had played, the cut line was at 90. The week finished at 140. 64.3% (90/140) would be the amount to add to this week’s current cut line.

Thoughts on methodology?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think a "Cut Line Projector" might be a viable item.

Thoughts on methodology?

This is something I'd like to add, and it would (theoretically) be as simple as re-running the current cutoff calculation but replacing the live stats with final projected stats. I would probably just update it every 15 minutes or so and only during SNF and MNF just to keep things simpler. I think this would involve:

• Loading in some projections for the SNF and MNF players. Currently I don't do my own projections for anything, so I'd need to pull them from somewhere. I could just scrape FBG for Dodds's projections or something.
• When there are no games going on, calculate the projected cutoff using the actual stats from all games that have already been played and the projected stats for the games that haven't started yet. Simple enough, I think.
• While there's a game going on it's more complicated, because I'd need to come up with some hybrid of actual and projected stats. For example, if Dodds has Calvin Johnson projected to score 16 points, and he already has 20 points at halftime, it makes no sense to use either the projected stats or the actual stats. I'd need to revise the projections on the fly based on what's already happened and how much time is left in the game (this is another complication, since this is something else I don't currently pull in). And whatever I came up with would be pretty unscientific - if Calvin was projected for 16, and has 20 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 25? 32? 40? If Calvin was projected for 16 and has 0 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 0? 8? 16? (This is another issue - if a player gets hurt during the game and won't return, I don't think I'd have any way to account for this on the fly).

A much simpler method to implement would be to do some kind of trend projection like you described (e.g. scale up the cutoff at 7pm on Sunday night by X%, based on the historical change in cutoff from that point to the end of MNF and the amount of $ left in play). I could make it more accurate by only using teams that are currently below the cutoff (since anything that happens to teams above the cutline doesn't move the cutline) and project forward based on that.

I don't know, I'd have to think about it.

 

[ochawkeye]

• While there's a game going on it's more complicated, because I'd need to come up with some hybrid of actual and projected stats. For example, if Dodds has Calvin Johnson projected to score 16 points, and he already has 20 points at halftime, it makes no sense to use either the projected stats or the actual stats. I'd need to revise the projections on the fly based on what's already happened and how much time is left in the game (this is another complication, since this is something else I don't currently pull in). And whatever I came up with would be pretty unscientific - if Calvin was projected for 16, and has 20 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 25? 32? 40? If Calvin was projected for 16 and has 0 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 0? 8? 16? (This is another issue - if a player gets hurt during the game and won't return, I don't think I'd have any way to account for this on the fly).

I don't think you need to over-complicate it. Simply take (real points scored) + (projected points) * (percentage of game remaining).

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 20 at half: (20) + (16) * (.5) = projected 28

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 0 at half: (0) + (16) * (.5) = projected 8

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 20 at 0:00 Q3: (20) + 16 * (.25) = projected 24

I wouldn't worry about hurt players or overtime potential. Just base the time remaining on 60 minute games. If Q1, there are (45 + min_remaining_in_quarter)/(60.0) left in the game.

 

[Steeler]

I think the projected cut line calculation during the game is overkill (although a fun problem to figure out ). I like the simpler idea of calculating the projected cut line before the Sunday night game and again before the Monday night game using projections for the games that haven't completed yet.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

• While there's a game going on it's more complicated, because I'd need to come up with some hybrid of actual and projected stats. For example, if Dodds has Calvin Johnson projected to score 16 points, and he already has 20 points at halftime, it makes no sense to use either the projected stats or the actual stats. I'd need to revise the projections on the fly based on what's already happened and how much time is left in the game (this is another complication, since this is something else I don't currently pull in). And whatever I came up with would be pretty unscientific - if Calvin was projected for 16, and has 20 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 25? 32? 40? If Calvin was projected for 16 and has 0 at halftime, what do I project his final points to be? 0? 8? 16? (This is another issue - if a player gets hurt during the game and won't return, I don't think I'd have any way to account for this on the fly).

I don't think you need to over-complicate it. Simply take (real points scored) + (projected points) * (percentage of game remaining).

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 20 at half: (20) + (16) * (.5) = projected 28

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 0 at half: (0) + (16) * (.5) = projected 8

If Dodds projects 16 and Calvin Johnson has 20 at 0:00 Q3: (20) + 16 * (.25) = projected 24

I wouldn't worry about hurt players or overtime potential. Just base the time remaining on 60 minute games. If Q1, there are (45 + min_remaining_in_quarter)/(60.0) left in the game.

Right, that's exactly the kind of calculation I'd end up doing. The nerd in me would prefer a more precise way to do it but this is simple and close enough for our purposes.

I checked and the feed I pull the stats from also has the quarter and game clock so that's good. I'll see if I can get something going for this weekend.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think the projected cut line calculation during the game is overkill (although a fun problem to figure out ). I like the simpler idea of calculating the projected cut line before the Sunday night game and again before the Monday night game using projections for the games that haven't completed yet.

This is much easier, but less fun. I'm not sure yet which one I feel more strongly about.

 

[Obamassiah]

QB

Jake Locker $7 22.70 1042 439Thanks Iggy, yeah using the example above 439 people actually used Jake Locker and he got 22.70

So his impact on the contest was 9,965.3

His per $ impact on the conest was 1,423.61 for this week

At some point I'll try to sift through this all and maybe we can get an MVP (both total and per $)

-QG

I haven't done exactly the calculation you propose, but I think you'll find that Kelvin Benjamin owns the per $ category. A little harder to gauge the other one, but either Antonio Brown or Jay Cutler look like the most likely contenders.

But you could also think of the MVP as that guy that gives his teams the biggest boost relative to the cut line. This would be a huge performer owned on very few teams, who therefore get the most out of every point he scores. I think you'll find that those guys are Delanie Walker (overall) and Matt Asiata (per dollar).

I believe the best pts/$ performer to date at each skill position are:

QB Fitzpatrick 71.9 pts/$5 = 14.38 pts/$1
RB Asiata 63 pts/$2 = 31.5 pts/$1
WR Royal 64.5 pts/$3 = 21.5 pts/$1
TE Daniels 44.3 pts/$4 = 11.08 pts/$1

 

[BaBastage]

I think the projected cut line calculation during the game is overkill (although a fun problem to figure out ). I like the simpler idea of calculating the projected cut line before the Sunday night game and again before the Monday night game using projections for the games that haven't completed yet.

This is much easier, but less fun. I'm not sure yet which one I feel more strongly about.

Well, you can tell I went for the 'easier' approach. Loading projections sounds like a lot of work for very little benefit, since projections themselves are also a crapshoot.

Thinking more on this, maybe roster count * player cost isn't the right denominator, since the player cost was a pre-season projection that may or may not be relevant in-season.

Maybe it's something like (roster count) * (average weekly points for that player) or similar.

Or another approach instead of projections might be to substitute players that haven't played with their average points scored per week.

Regarding the part about not worrying about teams above the cut line, I'll have to think more on it. I think you've got something there that needs to be taken into account but I don't think it's quite so simple.

I need to let this jingle around a bit more.... thanks for indulging the discussion.

 

[rustycolts]

Looks like Lacy will finally count for me.

 

[QuizGuy66]

There ya go Lacy Makes up for the fact that Walsh is my only kicker this week

-QG

 

[CalBear]

So, this is the second Thursday in a row where my 30-man roster had no one playing on either team, so all I have to do is figure out stupid stuff like: what's the probability of that?

Assuming (to simplify--this is not a solid assumption) that all players are equally likely to be from every team, there's a 87.5% chance that a player is not on one of any four teams. Choosing 30 players, then, and assuming that the probabilities of player n+1 being on one of the four teams doesn't change after player n is chosen (another poor assumption), it looks like there's about a 1.8% chance of choosing 30 players and having none of them be on any of four specific teams. The real probability is somewhat lower than that because both of the simplifying assumptions overstate the probability.

But, I suppose the probability is understated because there are 16 tests a year. ("did I have no players in week 1+2 TNF", "did I have no players in week 2+3 TNF", and so on). So if the probability is 1.8% for players to not be from four teams, it's more like 25.5% chance of experiencing two consecutive TNF games with no players going during a season (leaving aside the fact that TNF team distribution isn't normal). Considering that 1.8% is a little too high, it's probably something between 20% and 25% overall. Higher than I would have expected.