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2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
I am out. My RB's were Foster, Martin, Rice, and Moreno. Took the doughnut this week and missed the cut by 2.
Bamac
Footballguy
This guy (or gal) is going to have a tough time getting through week 4: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/100168.php
jdkapow
Footballguy
You're not. I found the same discrepancy. I think you and I (and Football Reference and NFL.com) are correct.Ignoratio Elenchi said:My cutline was off from the official result by 0.10, which of course drives me crazy. In reconciling my scores with the FBG scores that came out this morning, I found the culprits:
- Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton each had a reception on Sunday. My site was crediting them with 1 point for the reception, but according to the official rules they should not get this point. I'll make a quick fix to address this in case any QBs (or kickers?) get a reception in the future.
- The FBG results show the Giants defense with 10 points. My site has them at 8. I checked nfl.com and it looks like they had 3 INTs and 2 sacks. That's 8 points, can someone help me out and let me know if I'm missing something? (Ironically, I was at that game, but I started tailgating in the morning so some of the details are a little fuzzy.)
kardplayer
Footballguy
Very efficient for me so far:
QB - Kaep/Locker/Geno - 1 start each
RB - Reggie (1), Mathews (2), Ingram (2), Greene (1), Andre Williams (0) $7 wasted
WR - Antonio (3), Andre J, Reggie, Malcom Floyd, Kerley, Avant (1x each), Lance Moore (0) - $3 unused
TE - Graham (3), Gronk (2), Ertz (2)
PK - Zuerlein, Sturgis, Walsh - 1 start each
Def - Browns (2), Falcons (1), Cowboys (0) - $3 unused
21/24 used, $13 unused
QB - Kaep/Locker/Geno - 1 start each
RB - Reggie (1), Mathews (2), Ingram (2), Greene (1), Andre Williams (0) $7 wasted
WR - Antonio (3), Andre J, Reggie, Malcom Floyd, Kerley, Avant (1x each), Lance Moore (0) - $3 unused
TE - Graham (3), Gronk (2), Ertz (2)
PK - Zuerlein, Sturgis, Walsh - 1 start each
Def - Browns (2), Falcons (1), Cowboys (0) - $3 unused
21/24 used, $13 unused
kardplayer
Footballguy
Interestingly, if everyone matches their best score of the year, he ends up around 152. Of course the odds of that...
jdkapow
Footballguy
Awards and notable teams of the week. Note that these awards are based on the Giants defense scoring 8 points: the FBG scoring is giving them 10 for some reason, but I'm assuming they'll correect it.
Strongest Living Team: RHON, Entry 100300, averaging over 209 points per week.
Strongest Dead Team: Entry 100526, averaging 186 points per week, has the 433rd highest average.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Entry 100869, with an average score of 88.5, has never finished within 45 points of the cut line
Safest Team: Same as last week: AdamAfrica, Entry 102306, never less than 64.2 above the cut line.
Just Skating By Award: H Man, Entry 112193, has beaten the cut line by 3.9, 1.7 and 1.0 points.
Icarus Award: swainyo, Entry 107850, was 32nd in overall average through two weeks, but eliminated in Week 3.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 100301 was eliminated in Week 1 but has scored over 190 in each of the last two weeks.
Notable Teams:
QBs: Wow again. Nineteen teams entered the contest with double-digit numbers of QBs. One remains. Big Shuffy, Entry 113318, is bucking the odds with 10 QBs.
RBs: No change from last week: of six teams with 12 RBs, four are still alive.
WRs: The 16-WR team is now dead, as are the two 15-WR teams and the 14-WR team. Two 13-WR teams remain, The Dogs of War (Entry 107531) and Entry 102255.
TEs: The 11-TE team died, as did the 10-TE team and the 8-TE team. Three teams with 7 TEs survive.
PKs: 15-Kicker Guy survives! Behind him, the two 13-kicker teams both died.
DEFs: A couple of teams with 8 defenses are still around.
And me, you ask? Just squeaked by last week, but I'm in 2093rd overall, by average..
More to come later...
Strongest Living Team: RHON, Entry 100300, averaging over 209 points per week.
Strongest Dead Team: Entry 100526, averaging 186 points per week, has the 433rd highest average.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Entry 100869, with an average score of 88.5, has never finished within 45 points of the cut line
Safest Team: Same as last week: AdamAfrica, Entry 102306, never less than 64.2 above the cut line.
Just Skating By Award: H Man, Entry 112193, has beaten the cut line by 3.9, 1.7 and 1.0 points.
Icarus Award: swainyo, Entry 107850, was 32nd in overall average through two weeks, but eliminated in Week 3.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 100301 was eliminated in Week 1 but has scored over 190 in each of the last two weeks.
Notable Teams:
QBs: Wow again. Nineteen teams entered the contest with double-digit numbers of QBs. One remains. Big Shuffy, Entry 113318, is bucking the odds with 10 QBs.
RBs: No change from last week: of six teams with 12 RBs, four are still alive.
WRs: The 16-WR team is now dead, as are the two 15-WR teams and the 14-WR team. Two 13-WR teams remain, The Dogs of War (Entry 107531) and Entry 102255.
TEs: The 11-TE team died, as did the 10-TE team and the 8-TE team. Three teams with 7 TEs survive.
PKs: 15-Kicker Guy survives! Behind him, the two 13-kicker teams both died.
DEFs: A couple of teams with 8 defenses are still around.
And me, you ask? Just squeaked by last week, but I'm in 2093rd overall, by average..
More to come later...
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Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
good stuff! until the Sunday night game 15-kicker guy was well ahead of me according to the live scoring page...
Dacomish
Footballguy
Maybe better than my chances http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/103525.php
unless something changes with Stewart i'm without a RB and a few other key player byes will kill me.
jdkapow
Footballguy
And now the players:
Eliminated Players: None. Last week, there were only three players to see half their entries die. This week, that number's up to 56. Tiquan Underwood continues to pace the field: 13 of his 18 teams are dead. Wes Welker continues to look like the costliest big mistake: only 36% of the 118 teams that picked him are still around. Other bad picks include Matt Prater, Jordan Reed, Marvin Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Tavon Austin and RGIII: all sport survival rates under 45%.
The Survivor: DeMarco Murray. 84% of teams with Murray are still alive.
The Parasite: Theo Riddick. He was on 203 teams and 72.4% of them are still alive, despite Riddick producing a TOTAL of 2.0 points.
The Martyr: No great choices here. It's still Stafford, I think: double-digit points every week, but over half his teams have died.
Dead Money:
Here's my list of players who are either definitively gone for the season (not on IR-designated to return and not in Adrian-Peterson-limbo-land) or are currently free agents. I'm treating these as dead players and counting dead money that way. Please let me know if I'm missing anyone.
Andre Brown
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Connor Barth
Danny Woodhead
David Wilson
Dennis Pitta
Greg Little
Jay Feely
Jermichael Finley
Lache Seastrunk
Maikon Bonani
Matt Cassel
Michael Ford
Nate Burleson
Nate Freese
Ray Rice
Sam Bradford
Tiquan Underwood
Vincent Brown
The Dead-Money King: Entry 103655, the proud owner who spent $50 on Ray Rice, Danny Woodhead, Dennis Pitta and Nate Freese, is still with us.
Eliminated Players: None. Last week, there were only three players to see half their entries die. This week, that number's up to 56. Tiquan Underwood continues to pace the field: 13 of his 18 teams are dead. Wes Welker continues to look like the costliest big mistake: only 36% of the 118 teams that picked him are still around. Other bad picks include Matt Prater, Jordan Reed, Marvin Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Tavon Austin and RGIII: all sport survival rates under 45%.
The Survivor: DeMarco Murray. 84% of teams with Murray are still alive.
The Parasite: Theo Riddick. He was on 203 teams and 72.4% of them are still alive, despite Riddick producing a TOTAL of 2.0 points.
The Martyr: No great choices here. It's still Stafford, I think: double-digit points every week, but over half his teams have died.
Dead Money:
Here's my list of players who are either definitively gone for the season (not on IR-designated to return and not in Adrian-Peterson-limbo-land) or are currently free agents. I'm treating these as dead players and counting dead money that way. Please let me know if I'm missing anyone.
Andre Brown
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Connor Barth
Danny Woodhead
David Wilson
Dennis Pitta
Greg Little
Jay Feely
Jermichael Finley
Lache Seastrunk
Maikon Bonani
Matt Cassel
Michael Ford
Nate Burleson
Nate Freese
Ray Rice
Sam Bradford
Tiquan Underwood
Vincent Brown
The Dead-Money King: Entry 103655, the proud owner who spent $50 on Ray Rice, Danny Woodhead, Dennis Pitta and Nate Freese, is still with us.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Believe it or not, you rank 47th in standard deviation (41st if we count only living teams). Hubes (Entry 113652) has scored 144.55, 144.40 and 144.25.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Is it me, or does Ray Rice have a lot of bye weeks this year? Or was the contest querier just happy to see him go? Bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye!
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I have 5 players that have scored for me every week.
Antonio Brown
Edelman
Graham
Nugent
And Cutler (over Dalton)
Antonio Brown
Edelman
Graham
Nugent
And Cutler (over Dalton)
Spin! I just checked the contest querier and the last of our Reed/Eifert brethren have fallen to the cut line. You and I are all that remain. Which means that if we can just survive through the cuts, and if Eifert and Reed both go bonkers in the playoffs, we'll clean up*!Sounds right, I own the Eifert, Reed combo as well, their 0's are just soaking up the unused cash.You only have 1 TE start total?
-QG
*well, you'll clean up at least, since I'm not eligible for prizes.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I have little chance this week.
If you look up "Dead Money" in Webster's, definition 2) says being signed by the Raiders.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
Benjamin is like having 2 or 3 guys. Post your team link. 120 is probably a safe number this week assuming a high ownership guy doesn't go Julio.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I heard back from Drinen. He confirmed that the Giants defense should only have 8 points, and he re-ran the standings with the correct score.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Time for you to track the "Saved by Ignoratio Elenchi" teams. If one of these guys hits the grand prize he/she will owe you big time.
If you remove next week's bye and hurt players, you still score 155.3 this week. I think there are many tighter sphincters than that around here.
You'll probably finish in the top half this week.
Rivers v. Jax is a prime matchup.
Murray and Lacy is a better RB situation than a majority of the teams this week.
Benjamin/Jeffrey/VJax/Cooper is plenty at WR
Your hosed at TE
You along with many others aren't grasping how low the cutoff will be this week. You have teams crippled left and right by injury and suspension and now are adding about a fifth of the league on bye this week. It also includes the two most potent offenses in the league. On top of that, people like to stack their byes early.
Das Boot
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Well, now I'm feeling better guys, thanks. 
officially down to only two RBs that can possibly score rest of season... Lacy and Blount, lol. Still alive, though, and scoring 160+....
I'm more convinced than ever that 18-team stocking up on studs is the right way to do it... then you just need to have the 6-8 uber studs that don't get hurt or suspended.
I'm more convinced than ever that 18-team stocking up on studs is the right way to do it... then you just need to have the 6-8 uber studs that don't get hurt or suspended.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
$50 of waste so far, but that will change this week
Doug Martin $24
Andre Williams $7
Justin Hunter $9
Cody Latimer $6
Eagles DST $4
If I can get 12 pts from my RB's, I think I'll survive. Wishing I would have spread the Latimer money out on Bortles and something else for this week though but Cutler with that favorable matchup vs GB gives me confidence.
Doug Martin $24
Andre Williams $7
Justin Hunter $9
Cody Latimer $6
Eagles DST $4
If I can get 12 pts from my RB's, I think I'll survive. Wishing I would have spread the Latimer money out on Bortles and something else for this week though but Cutler with that favorable matchup vs GB gives me confidence.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Only $20 wasted thus far...brady (!) and celek.
dagman
Footballguy
Well, I survived this last week with 165.9 points, don't ask me how. Only $105 out of $150 on my roster counted. 7 out of 23 guys on my roster scored 0s. This week could be rough, especially if I don't get DeAngelo Williams back from injury.
QB Andrew Luck IND $20
QB Andy Dalton CIN $13 - Bye
RB Adrian Peterson MIN $30 - Dead
RB Eddie Lacy GB $28
RB DeAngelo Williams CAR $10 - Questionable
RB Mark Ingram NO $9 - Injured and on Bye
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR $5 - Injured
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN $29 - Bye
WR Michael Crabtree SF $19
WR Hakeem Nicks IND $9
WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR $5
WR Brian Quick STL $4 - Bye
WR Malcom Floyd SD $4
WR Jarius Wright MIN $3 - DUH
TE Vernon Davis SF $17 - Questionable
TE Tyler Eifert CIN $12 - Injured
TE Dwayne Allen IND $8
TE Richard Rodgers GB $5 - DUH
TE John Carlson ARI $3
PK Matt Bryant ATL $4
PK Greg Zuerlein STL $3 - Bye
DST San Francisco 49ers SF $7
DST Pittsburgh Steelers PIT $3
QB Andrew Luck IND $20
QB Andy Dalton CIN $13 - Bye
RB Adrian Peterson MIN $30 - Dead
RB Eddie Lacy GB $28
RB DeAngelo Williams CAR $10 - Questionable
RB Mark Ingram NO $9 - Injured and on Bye
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR $5 - Injured
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN $29 - Bye
WR Michael Crabtree SF $19
WR Hakeem Nicks IND $9
WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR $5
WR Brian Quick STL $4 - Bye
WR Malcom Floyd SD $4
WR Jarius Wright MIN $3 - DUH
TE Vernon Davis SF $17 - Questionable
TE Tyler Eifert CIN $12 - Injured
TE Dwayne Allen IND $8
TE Richard Rodgers GB $5 - DUH
TE John Carlson ARI $3
PK Matt Bryant ATL $4
PK Greg Zuerlein STL $3 - Bye
DST San Francisco 49ers SF $7
DST Pittsburgh Steelers PIT $3
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eric rymer
Footballguy
$30 in dead money for me. Pretty neat to look at.
Flacco $8
Boykin $9
Hunter $9
Panthers $4
Scoring was looking good until week 3 but I survived and that's what matters.
198.55, 199.70, 154.45
Flacco $8
Boykin $9
Hunter $9
Panthers $4
Scoring was looking good until week 3 but I survived and that's what matters.
198.55, 199.70, 154.45
eric rymer
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Y'know when I designed this team while having a little extra on teams with a week 4 bye I balanced that by making sure my top 2 runnings back and viable 3rd were playing in week 4 (with a cheap flyer thrown in). Now Ingram is out and White is Mr. Inactive and suddenly I'm nervous about rolling with just Morris and Lacy this week. Nutty contest, this.
-QG
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The one thing I do feel good about is that I have a much more unique entry that I typically have.
I am the only entry left with the combo of Morris, Green, and Cameron.
Usually I have to get into oddball combinations to show my team's uniqueness - rare for me to be unique with three $20+ players
This could be a good thing if I make it through this week
-QG
I am the only entry left with the combo of Morris, Green, and Cameron.
Usually I have to get into oddball combinations to show my team's uniqueness - rare for me to be unique with three $20+ players
This could be a good thing if I make it through this week
-QG
93_Confirmed
Footballguy
I'm averaging 170 but just lost my only two TEs - Pitta & Rudolph. Zero-TE FTW!(?)
jdkapow
Footballguy
Some information about the upcoming week. I've tried to capture all the guys who will definitely be out this week, but I'm sure I missed a couple. And I didn't exclude backup QBs or other players unlikely to get points. Anyway:
QB: There are an astonishing 87 teams with no active QBs this week. Mostly guys with Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson paired with someone like Cassel. But there are a surprising number with only two QBs, both with week 4 byes. Another 1400+ teams have only one QB available this week.
RB: 27 teams are rolling with no RBs this week. Three of these entries actually have 5 RBs on their roster. These guys are worth acknowledging:
Entry 107204: Adrian Peterson, Andre Ellington, Ben Tate, Ray Rice, Mark Ingram
3int (Entry 102503): Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno, Mark Ingram, Benny Cunningham
Slackers (Entry 110667): Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy, Ray Rice, Mark Ingram, Isaiah Crowell
Overall, 407 teams cannot start a full complement of RBs.
WR: Here's my favorite. There is one (1) team that has no WR available this week. Indian Bridge (Entry 111392) went into the contest with only Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald and Cody Latimer. Yes, that's right. Every one of the receivers on that team has a week 4 bye.
Overall, only 33 teams don't have 2 WR availalble.
TE: 204 teams don't have a TE available this week.
PK: 363 teams don't have a kicker this week. Don't worry about 15-kicker guy, though: he's got 11.
TD: 407 teams don't have a defense this week.
Overall: If I've done my calculations right, there are 2860 teams that don't have a complete roster going this week (meaning they can't have 10 scoring players). Given that only 1500 teams get cut this week, half of these teams and probably more will survive.
Seven teams can have a maximum of 5 players score for them this week. My guess is that none will survive. They are:
Entry 106761, Hedwig (Entry 110768), Entry 103587, Rocky Mtn Cat (Entry 105501), BLITZ DAWG (Entry 102509), White Cassel (Entry 104337), WELSH CORGIS (Entry 108785)
QB: There are an astonishing 87 teams with no active QBs this week. Mostly guys with Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson paired with someone like Cassel. But there are a surprising number with only two QBs, both with week 4 byes. Another 1400+ teams have only one QB available this week.
RB: 27 teams are rolling with no RBs this week. Three of these entries actually have 5 RBs on their roster. These guys are worth acknowledging:
Entry 107204: Adrian Peterson, Andre Ellington, Ben Tate, Ray Rice, Mark Ingram
3int (Entry 102503): Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno, Mark Ingram, Benny Cunningham
Slackers (Entry 110667): Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy, Ray Rice, Mark Ingram, Isaiah Crowell
Overall, 407 teams cannot start a full complement of RBs.
WR: Here's my favorite. There is one (1) team that has no WR available this week. Indian Bridge (Entry 111392) went into the contest with only Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald and Cody Latimer. Yes, that's right. Every one of the receivers on that team has a week 4 bye.
Overall, only 33 teams don't have 2 WR availalble.
TE: 204 teams don't have a TE available this week.
PK: 363 teams don't have a kicker this week. Don't worry about 15-kicker guy, though: he's got 11.
TD: 407 teams don't have a defense this week.
Overall: If I've done my calculations right, there are 2860 teams that don't have a complete roster going this week (meaning they can't have 10 scoring players). Given that only 1500 teams get cut this week, half of these teams and probably more will survive.
Seven teams can have a maximum of 5 players score for them this week. My guess is that none will survive. They are:
Entry 106761, Hedwig (Entry 110768), Entry 103587, Rocky Mtn Cat (Entry 105501), BLITZ DAWG (Entry 102509), White Cassel (Entry 104337), WELSH CORGIS (Entry 108785)
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93_Confirmed
Footballguy
@jdkapow - it's amazing that people wouldn't account for bye weeks when putting their team together. You have weeks/months to strategize, a ton of flexibility with the overall roster and most glaring is that the bye week is posted right next to every player. Unreal.
I'm sure some of them accounted for it and made a calculated risk that they could survive the earlier easier cut weeks. Originally I toyed around with a roster that included all of Peyton, Lynch, D. Thomas, Green, Harvin, J. Thomas. Sure a team like that is much more likely to get cut week 4, but if you are able to survive it gives a significant advantage in every week moving forward. I did end up changing it though after realizing the early week cuts would be much more aggressive this year.
apalmer
Footballguy
Well, it's not beside the names on the entry sheet. It only shows up after you've made your choices and hit "submit" and there are more than a few who don't look at that page. That's why there are always a few requests in this thread to have FBG show the bye weeks on the entry form (and more than a few replies indicating that the rest of us don't want the byes to show to make it easier for people). I'm also guessing that most of the bye week issues for this week are either related to the unusually large number of injuries and suspensions to big name guys. If you take Peterson, Rice, and a few of the others, you only have enough money for a limited number of backups. That leaves you thin when the big names surprisingly aren't available. A team that started out with Peterson, Rice, Ingram, Woodhead and Cunningham would have thought they were loaded for this week. Now, they suddenly have zero RBs. This week is also unusual because a lot of people actually try to short themselves for the first bye week. Traditionally, it has been the easiest bye week to survive because there are still a lot of junk entries to be cut so one school of thought is to risk being very thin in Week 4 so you have a full team later when the cuts are deeper. They aren't "not accounting" for the bye week, they're just rolling the dice.
