What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)

By eyeball method the weekly cutoff is constant at 140 approx. Based on number of enyries at what time does the cutoff start migrating upward and at what slope / increased points per week? Is flat then linear with positive slope the historical and projected cutline trend behavior?
It's not. Here are last year's cutoffs.

81.30 76.60 132.50 155.95 148.30 129.10 141.80 127.40 133.65 129.30 142.35 145.80 171.20 187.85 0.00 0.00

Cutoff will be very bye week dependent and also driven by the performance of the big percentage owned guys like Cutler, Lacy, Brown, Benjamin, Kelce, Graham, Ertz, etc.

 
Icarus Award: Here's that number again: Entry 105074 was in 7th place overall, averaging over 205 points per week, before missing the cutline by 3 points this week.
That's the thing about this contest: you can be cruising along with no idea that you're at risk and suddenly you're out. This team wasn't a victim of byes or even injuries going into the week (although he had a couple RBs injured, his depth was enough that he shouldn't have been worried about surviving), he just was the victim of subpar performances by nearly everyone on his roster at the same time.

 
Ugh, Green's toe flared up in practice again - wouldn't be good for my entry if he ends up missing this week. Though if I survive it'll thin the already well-thinned herd of AJ owners which could be good down the line.

-QG

 
my team is still alive but it looks like I lost Pitta for a while. maybe i wont even need him though.

This entry is still alive.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthew Stafford $22 31.50 18.35 11.10 29.45 14.85 bye
Ryan Tannehill $10 15.70 16.15 15.15 24.40 0.00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LeSean McCoy $34 17.50 20.20 3.20 1.70 12.60 bye
Andre Ellington $25 13.00 11.10 10.50 0.00 30.40
Shane Vereen $23 18.10 5.00 7.70 11.70 13.80 bye
Jonathan Stewart $5 6.70 12.90 8.00 0.00 0.00 out? bye
James White $4 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.60 0.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Demaryius Thomas $29 8.80 17.20 7.10 0.00 42.60
Justin Hunter $9 9.30 4.60 6.70 2.20 18.90 bye
Denarius Moore $5 2.80 5.90 5.30 0.00 0.00
Kelvin Benjamin $5 21.20 6.60 25.50 18.60 6.80 bye
Brian Quick $4 16.90 14.40 14.20 0.00 25.70
Marlon Brown $3 0.00 0.00 2.50 6.10 0.00 bye
Mohamed Sanu $3 8.00 19.90 14.30 0.00 18.00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Graham $30 20.20 38.80 14.40 26.60 6.60 bye
Dennis Pitta $16 23.30 7.50 5.70 0.00 0.00 out? out? out? out? out? bye out? out? out? out? out?
Coby Fleener $7 6.60 2.80 16.90 11.60 4.50 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greg Zuerlein $3 10.20 16.50 7.00 0.00 4.00
Caleb Sturgis $3 15.80 4.40 9.10 9.10 0.00
Ryan Succop $3 18.00 5.70 1.00 5.60 4.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland Browns $4 6.00 12.00 2.00 0.00 5.00
Miami Dolphins $3 8.00 0.00 11.00 16.00 0.00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 187.70 181.35 139.05 137.95 179.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CUTOFF 138.15 140.20 134.65 137.60 140.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 
And now the players:

The Bargain: Brian Quick: he cost just $4 and he has the second-highest survival percentage at 69.4%. His 99 surviving owners are quite pleased. Alternatively, Mohamed Sanu, who cost even less at $3, has a 63% survival rate (4th overall), and is owned by over 1250 living teams.
and teams with both Sanu and Quick?

Results Summary
There were 77 entries with these players.66 of them are still alive, for a survival rate of 85.7%.
with AJ Green in and out with injury this year Sanu could be a huge steal. Let's see if Jones actually makes it back soon and how that plays out.

 
I checked with Doug - he's updating the score for Shayne Graham in the FBG results, and we agreed that his result for the Falcons DST is correct.

So both his and my results have been updated accordingly. Everything on my site should now be current through week 5, let me know if you have any questions.
A little update: Doug checked with Joe and David and apparently the decision was that Atlanta DST should receive credit for the fumble recovery. So their score has been changed from 3 points to 5, and the results have been updated accordingly.

As a result, Entry 102717 has been resurrected from the dead. The scoring change put them 0.3 above the cut, so add them to the list of people who owe me a lot of money if they end up winning the grand prize. ;)

 
I checked with Doug - he's updating the score for Shayne Graham in the FBG results, and we agreed that his result for the Falcons DST is correct.

So both his and my results have been updated accordingly. Everything on my site should now be current through week 5, let me know if you have any questions.
A little update: Doug checked with Joe and David and apparently the decision was that Atlanta DST should receive credit for the fumble recovery. So their score has been changed from 3 points to 5, and the results have been updated accordingly.

As a result, Entry 102717 has been resurrected from the dead. The scoring change put them 0.3 above the cut, so add them to the list of people who owe me a lot of money if they end up winning the grand prize. ;)
who got booted instead?

 
And now the players:

The Bargain: Brian Quick: he cost just $4 and he has the second-highest survival percentage at 69.4%. His 99 surviving owners are quite pleased. Alternatively, Mohamed Sanu, who cost even less at $3, has a 63% survival rate (4th overall), and is owned by over 1250 living teams.
and teams with both Sanu and Quick?

Results Summary
There were 77 entries with these players.66 of them are still alive, for a survival rate of 85.7%.
with AJ Green in and out with injury this year Sanu could be a huge steal. Let's see if Jones actually makes it back soon and how that plays out.
any chance Stedman Bailey takes some action away from Quick?

 
I checked with Doug - he's updating the score for Shayne Graham in the FBG results, and we agreed that his result for the Falcons DST is correct.

So both his and my results have been updated accordingly. Everything on my site should now be current through week 5, let me know if you have any questions.
A little update: Doug checked with Joe and David and apparently the decision was that Atlanta DST should receive credit for the fumble recovery. So their score has been changed from 3 points to 5, and the results have been updated accordingly.

As a result, Entry 102717 has been resurrected from the dead. The scoring change put them 0.3 above the cut, so add them to the list of people who owe me a lot of money if they end up winning the grand prize. ;)
who got booted instead?
Nobody. There was a multi-team tie right at the cutoff, so adding one more team above them didn't move the cutline.

 
Seems weird to score it that way. This was a play where the Falcons offense lost a fumble, then the Giants fumbled it back during the return, right?

So the Falcons DST scored 2 points while all of their defensive players were standing on the sidelines? Reminds me of the great "Offensive fumble recovery TD" debate of aught-nine.

Did the Giant's D gain 2 points for a fumble recovery, then lose 2 for a "lost fumble"?

 
Seems weird to score it that way. This was a play where the Falcons offense lost a fumble, then the Giants fumbled it back during the return, right?

So the Falcons DST scored 2 points while all of their defensive players were standing on the sidelines? Reminds me of the great "Offensive fumble recovery TD" debate of aught-nine.

Did the Giant's D gain 2 points for a fumble recovery, then lose 2 for a "lost fumble"?
Matt Ryan threw an interception, and on the return the defender fumbled the ball which was recovered by Atlanta.

The Giants D got 2 points for the interception. No one loses points for lost fumbles in the FBG contest, so that's not an issue.

My initial thought (which I think Drinen agreed with) was that the Atlanta DST should not get credit for a fumble recovery. But reading the NFL rulebook, it says:

Section 35 Team A and B, Offense and Defense

OFFENSE AND DEFENSE

Article 1 Whenever a team is in possession (3-2-7), it is the Offense and, at such time, its opponent is the

Defense.

TEAM A AND TEAM B

Article 2 The team that puts the ball in play is Team A, and its opponent is Team B. For brevity, a player of

Team A is referred to as A1 and his teammates as A2, A3, etc. Opponents are B1, B2, etc.

Note: A team becomes Team A when it has been designated to put ball in play, and it remains Team A until a

down ends, even though there might be one or more changes of possession during the down. This is in

contrast with the terms Offense and Defense. Team A is always the offense when a down starts, but

becomes the defense if and when B secures possession during the down, and vice versa for each change

of possession.
Note the part I highlighted. Once the interception occurred, Atlanta became the defense and the Giants became the offense (and once the Giants fumbled the ball back, they switched again). So per the official NFL rules, Atlanta was on defense when they recovered the fumble. I'm not sure if that was Joe and David's reasoning, but it makes sense to me after checking the rulebook that Atlanta D should get the points.

 
QB Drew Brees NO $26 0.00QB Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU $5 0.00RB Montee Ball DEN $29 0.00RB Doug Martin TB $24 0.00RB Fred Jackson BUF $12 0.00RB Ahmad Bradshaw IND $9 0.00RB James White NE $4 0.00WR Jarrett Boykin GB $9 0.00WR Harry Douglas ATL $7 0.00WR Aaron Dobson NE $7 0.00WR Cody Latimer DEN $6 0.00WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR $5 0.00WR Malcom Floyd SD $4 0.00WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG $4 0.00WR Brian Quick STL $4 0.00WR Nate Washington TEN $4 0.00WR Jarvis Landry MIA $3 0.00WR Stedman Bailey STL $2 0.00TE Jimmy Graham NO $30 0.00TE Rob Gronkowski NE $26 0.00TE Garrett Graham HOU $9 0.00PK Greg Zuerlein STL $3 0.00PK Caleb Sturgis MIA $3 0.00PK Mike Nugent CIN $3 0.00DST Carolina Panthers CAR $4 0.00DST Houston Texans HOU $4 0.00DST New Orleans Saints NO $4 0.00ABOVE is my team.

Still in it. I have a pretty consistent team so far 155-175 per week. I have a good amount of sleepers that haven't stepped up yet. I need them to if I want to have any chance of putting scores above 170+

I am regretting my picks of Ball, D Martin, G Graham and Boykin. I am still comfortable rostering the other guys who haven't helped out yet.

BELOW would be my team going forward if I could redo it today

**only involving the players I have on my team or honestly strongly considered throughout the preseason**

(I never seriously considered maclin or golden tate, for example)

Code:
 D Brees NO 6 	26B Bortles Jax 11	3 	L Bell PIT 12 	24B Tate CLE 4	20F Jackson BUF 9 	12 A Bradshaw IND 10 	9 C Ivory NYJ 11 	8 B Green Ellis	2	 S Smith BAL 11 	7 H Douglas ATL 9 	7 A Dobson NE 10 	7 C Latimer DEN 4 	6 K Benjamin CAR 12 	5 B Quick STL 4 	4 D Adams GB 9 	4 M Floyd SD 10 	4 O Beckham Jr NYG 8 	4 N Washington TEN 9 	4 J Landry MIA 5 	3 S Bailey STL 4 	2	 J Graham NO 6 	30 R Gronkowski NE 10 	26 T Kelce KC 6 	8T Wright NE 10	5	d	4d	4d	3	k	3k	3k	3
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'd like the powers that be consider a one-time swap/transaction no later than week 8 or something which would allow all teams who are alive to improve their chances of winning this thing.

I think this contest goes beyond just luck...and forces almost all entrants (except 15 kicker guy) to really do some work to develop a competitive team. However, crap situations like Rice, Peterson, etc. that no one could possibly have anticipated basically exposes otherwise competitive teams. Injuries are injuries so those are part of the deal.

For example, if I were able to drop Peterson and replace him with one other guy (only one regardless of price) by week 8 (mid-season), that would keep people more engaged. Oh yeah, charge a fee ($2, $5...whatever) for that transaction and apply that to the payout or something else.

It seems like there are the same people posting in this thread. This enhancement could result in more buzz (not like Peterson's recent buzz), revenue and chances for unlucky entrants to have a second shot!

Just an idea.

PS - Iggy...you are THE man The stuff you come out with, analysis, programs...damn. You better be employed by some high tech firm who values what you bring to the table. Thanks for all you do, buddy!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
did the Alex Smith scoring change where he lost a td pass change anything?
The rules say that all scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data, so my assumption would be that there is no impact to the results.

 
I have a 19 player team. Only have one wasted player so far and that's Latimer. Every other player has been used twice except for Pittsburgh's DST.

Montee Ball getting hurt hurts me a bit, but I benefit from the Rashad Jennings injury in having Andre Williams.

 
My RB situation is a mess...Adrian Beathisson (susp.), Reggie Bush (quest.), Shonn Greene (quest.), Nobow Moreno and Blount. With Graham on a bye, this may be it for me. Not pretty.

I need others to step up big time.

 
Man I have a bad feeling about this week.I'm only missing Brees and Graham,but the way these 1st qtr scores look I'm in deep do do.

 
106 points so far with Morris and Maclin the prominent guys yet to start. Flacco points will start to count for me now ( I have Luck)

-QG

 
Smith/Benjamin/Sanu - $15 of absolute goodness this year.

Once again stuck with one RB scoring this week but I should be OK owning Flacco.

 
It should feel better to be in the top 5000, but my team is just plodding along, no superstars to get excited about...just grinding out one week at a time.

 
It should feel better to be in the top 5000, but my team is just plodding along, no superstars to get excited about...just grinding out one week at a time.
Plodded my way along to an 8th place finish a few years back. Pretty much selected all the highest owned guys and rode them out.

 
It should feel better to be in the top 5000, but my team is just plodding along, no superstars to get excited about...just grinding out one week at a time.
I'm with you. Should advance thanks to T.Y. And Flacco. But even with those 2, LaFell, and Nugent I'm only at 164. I still have players and that should creep up, but I won't hit 200 with 4 players going off. I'm awash with mediocrity.

 
What a terrible week for my rb;s to lay an egg. Sitting at 128.
My RBs have been laying eggs for 3 weeks.... Been taking a 0 at the second RB spot, so I'm on borrowed time. Hoping Ingram or Stewart come back asap.

Currently sitting at a whopping 2.0 pts for my 2 RB spots. Thank goodness for some bargain players... sitting at 132.80 with basically any pts from MJD keeping me afloat.

 
I have 181.10 + (Morris/Turbin minus 4.00/13.50) + Maclin minus (17.90 or 20.70 or 21.10) + Ertz/Rivera minus (17.90 or 20.70 or 27.80)

On to week 7 :pickle:

Good luck to those sweating the Turk :)

-QG

 
I have 181.10 + (Morris/Turbin minus 4.00/13.50) + Maclin minus (17.90 or 20.70 or 21.10) + Ertz/Rivera minus (17.90 or 20.70 or 27.80)

On to week 7 :pickle:

Good luck to those sweating the Turk :)

-QG
I'm not sweating him,I'm going to invite him in for supper cuz I'm done he can stick a fork in me.
 
Well I am going to need a miracle like a scoreless tie in the last two games being played with no stats being recorded.So with that said good luck everyone and Iggy thanks for the hard work hope you finish in the money.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top