2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (3 Viewers)

[Dezbelief]

Powell is familiar with the system and played well last year. Robinson would probably be involved, but I still think Powell would see most of the work.

Has Robinson been cleared for his 1st practice yet? I don't see him getting significant touches this year without an injury in front of him.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

I love CJ Spiller as a flyer this season, Payton has been singing his praises since training camp and I believe he gets significant touches even with Ingram healthy. 

 

[JFS171]

If I had the roster spots right now to burn, I'd probably use one on Ronnie Hillman.  There's been a lot of smoke about him being cut in Denver, and I have to think the Colts would be tripping over themselves to sign him to play the RB2 role they sort of envisioned for Ferguson.  Hillman can pass pro, and Hillman can catch the ball out of the backfield.  He's not tremendous between the tackles, but he's not worthless. 

On Luck's offense, I'd take Hillman in a heartbeat behind a 33-YO Frank Gore who may or may not make it that much longer.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I cant believe CJ Spiller is a thing but here we are.

 

[Todem]

In dynasty leagues CJ Prosise may prove to be a major HR. In redraft he can be had as a flier in the 15th or 16th round and just sit and wait.

This kid has real deal talent. Super soft hands, glides, has great agility, great 3 down back size, good speed. If Rawls falters....this will be your guy in Seattle IMO.

Not the engima and forever pre-season All-Pro known as C-Mike.

 

[strong]

question on mckinnon, is asiata still around?  i recall when AP was missing they split work pretty evenly if not leaning towards him

asiata cut into mckinnon's action especially around the redzone in 2014 but 1) that was mckinnon's rookie year 2) after a few games, mckinnon got more and more action and 3) that was two years ago--looks like mckinnon is getting better and i can't say the same about asiata.

 

[Stealthycat]

RB Andre Ellington ARI

Yes, D.Johnson has to go down and Ellington would have to pass Chris Johnson but not long ago, Ellington was the hottest RB commodity in FF because of his pass catching and big play ability

Is it still there? For an exceptionally late draft pick .... its a good lotto pick

 

[Milkman]

RB Andre Ellington ARI

Yes, D.Johnson has to go down and Ellington would have to pass Chris Johnson but not long ago, Ellington was the hottest RB commodity in FF because of his pass catching and big play ability

Is it still there? For an exceptionally late draft pick .... its a good lotto pick

Lol nope

 

[RenegadeRoy]

RB Andre Ellington ARI

Yes, D.Johnson has to go down and Ellington would have to pass Chris Johnson but not long ago, Ellington was the hottest RB commodity in FF because of his pass catching and big play ability

Is it still there? For an exceptionally late draft pick .... its a good lotto pick

I'll take my chances with a FAAB bid on Ellington. Like you said, too many what ifs to get him into a role that will matter fantasy wise. He's waiver wire fodder in most leagues, and I'd rather spend a late rounder on other guys mentioned here.

 

[Penguin]

Terrance West

Robert Turbin

Robert Kelley

 

[Ilov80s]

Ware looking pretty good right now.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'd change a few - I have Morris in the top 5 if Zeke gets hurt - that OL is crazy huge and Morris is an underrated back who's looked good this preseason.

I look to be lower on Morris than most. He did look better during this preseason but I'm also factoring in the eventual return of DMC. It's being reported that teams reached out to DAL for DMC but they didn't want to deal him. His current injury (elbow) isn't a lower body injury either, I'm not exactly sure when he's supposed to be back however.

Nice list SSND.

I think I would rather have Tyler Ervin than Alfred Blue for a RB from the Texans. Looking at the game logs Blue did enter the game before Ervin did. Ervin played in the last 2 minutes of the first half which is also when they put Savage in. So it does look like he is 3rd in the rotation right now.

Even so Ervin offers more as a receiving option than Blue and I think just a better overall player who I would take over blue as a handcuff to Miller.

Good call on Ervin. I just watched his preseason touches and he looks explosive. He doesn't look like the kind of back who can handle large workloads but as massraider pointed out he may not need many touches to be effective, especially in PPR.

Curious what you like so much, as he is averaging less than 3 ypc on a team dedicated to running the ball down people's throats.

Anderson is performing way better, which is expected. What isn't expected is that Hillman has gained about 30% more yards than Booker on about half the carries. So while other RBs in DEN are having very good to great PSs Booker is floundering, though he has flashed a bit catching the ball.

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I actually didn't even look at the box score, I just liked what I saw in the limited sample size. He looks as advertised.. able/willing to grind out yards in between the tackles and the ability catch the ball out of the backfield. My only real concern, in the event Anderson were to get injured, is that his pass pro wouldn't be up to snuff yet.

I think Malcolm Brown may be the guy to take over in event of a Gurley injury... Cunningham's role stays the same.

Good call although if Brown takes over early down duty and Cunningham retains his role as the passing down back it may render both useless. 

It looks like you ranked the lotto tickets based on your perception of their talent and the team situation. That is fine, but I think the other factor that you might not be accounting for is the probability that the ticket gets their number called. Injuries are difficult to predict, however someone like Foster, Stewart or Mathews seem likely to miss time at some point to injury.

I did take this into account (mentioned it with Ajayi and Yeldon) and it is of course important since injury is the most likely way for most of the guys mentioned in this thread to become valuable fantasy commodities. However, I feel like you need to also take into account the value of the opportunity, the skill set of the back-up and etc.

For instance, if Martin were to go down Simms would slot in as a full time back but if Stewart were to go down CAP would likely only see mostly early down work and would get a lot his GL opportunites robbed from him by Cam per usual. Stewart may be more injury prone than Martin but that doesn't mean his handcuff is more valuable. It's hard to weigh the different variables (effectiveness of starter, durability of starter, effectiveness of back-up, OL, schedule etc. etc.) though, I agree.

I would say:

Jonathan Williams, BUF

McCoy seems like as fine a choice to break down as any other starting RB. I think about Karlos last year in BUF, and I like Williams a lot more than Karlos coming out.

I see he got 1st and 2nd quarter touches in their third preseason game with McCoy inactive. Definitely looks like he's worth the flyer in deeper leagues as I don't buy into Bush or Gillislsee.

Man, this thread is really paying dividends.

 

[massraider]

Like the Terrance West call. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Like the Terrance West call. 

He may be their best runner, but can he catch the ball well enough to be a starter in a Trestman offense? 

 

[nyy45]

Devontae Booker.. Look at this guy run..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYb34m4nxr0

Could be one of those situations where if CJ is out for a game or 2 and Booker gets a chance..  and then there's the chance Anderson doesn't hold up and it's off to the races for Booker..

including college, Anderson hasn't had more than 179 carries in a season.. maybe bc of opportunity but it's still an unknown beyond that number

 

[tombonneau]

I think Malcolm Brown may be the guy to take over in event of a Gurley injury... Cunningham's role stays the same.

What makes you say this? Asking for a friend. 

 

[MattFancy]

For PPR, what about Chris Thompson? Skins RBs are a disaster and he could be useful in the passing game.

 

[ponchsox]

Looks like Ware will have a big role right out of the gate. 

 

[rickyg]

I'm pretty sure he means a three down back, not a third down back. Unless you mean he's a four down back ?

He's at least a 7 down back.  At MINIMUM! 

 

[Biabreakable]

Good call on Ervin. I just watched his preseason touches and he looks explosive. He doesn't look like the kind of back who can handle large workloads but as massraider pointed out he may not need many touches to be effective, especially in PPR.

He is a bit small played at around 175 during college. He was up to 190 at the combine. Special teams guy too. He is 5' 10" though and could put on some more muscle weight if needed.

 

[tombonneau]

He is a bit small played at around 175 during college. He was up to 190 at the combine. Special teams guy too. He is 5' 10" though and could put on some more muscle weight if needed.

I fell in love with this kid leading up to the draft. His college tape made me think Dion Lewis 2.0 and was hoping Pats would take him. I think this kid could pay some PPR dividends in 2016 and I was thrilled to get him in dynasty startup. I'm also not a huge believer in Lamar Miller which probably has me overvaluing Ervin a bit more than others.

 

[abbottjamesr]

Looks like Ware will have a big role right out of the gate. 

Betting on a guy to pass Charles on talent seems like a loosing proposition.  Maybe McKinnon will put Peterson on the bench too.

 

[Zero RB]

Curious what you like so much, as he is averaging less than 3 ypc on a team dedicated to running the ball down people's throats. 

Anderson is performing way better, which is expected. What isn't expected is that Hillman has gained about 30% more yards than Booker on about half the carries. So while other RBs in DEN are having very good to great PSs Booker is floundering, though he has flashed a bit catching the ball. 

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You're putting a lot of stock into YPC on very small sample sizes in August games. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Betting on a guy to pass Charles on talent seems like a loosing proposition.  Maybe McKinnon will put Peterson on the bench too.

I'm not sure if what you responded to was a "bet" against Charles.    There are legit reports saying that there is a very high likelihood that Charles will start the season with a limited workload--which means that Ware should get more touches.  I don't think anybody thinks that Ware is more talented than Charles--we're just looking at players who can provide great fantasy returns.  As of this moment--it looks like Ware could be a startable flex/low end rb2-- but with rb1 upside if Charles were to get hurt. For where he's getting drafted--and taking in these circumstances---I see nothing wrong with labeling him as a great "lotto ticket" .

 

[abbottjamesr]

I'm not sure if what you responded to was a "bet" against Charles.    There are legit reports saying that there is a very high likelihood that Charles will start the season with a limited workload--which means that Ware should get more touches.  I don't think anybody thinks that Ware is more talented than Charles--we're just looking at players who can provide great fantasy returns.  As of this moment--it looks like Ware could be a startable flex/low end rb2-- but with rb1 upside if Charles were to get hurt. For where he's getting drafted--and taking in these circumstances---I see nothing wrong with labeling him as a great "lotto ticket" .

I see your point, but my hunch is that Reid wont rest Charles unless they are winning or moving the ball easily.  The Chiefs aren't so stacked on offense that they are going to dominate lots of people and they have a couple key players out on Defense to stat the season so maybe its not as dominate either.  Ware certainly is a good lotto pick as for if Charles gets injured but I think you need deep benches to hold him like you would for McKinnon as well.

 

[JFS171]

What makes you say this? Asking for a friend. 

Thought he was a tremendous prospect that fell in the draft due to splitting work at UT during the  deterioration of the Mack Brown regime.  His agility scores for his size are tremendously impressive, and he's looked great this spring.  I'd love to see them cut him and try to get him back to the practice squad, cause I can't imagine he'd get there.  Brown's a very talented RB, and on any other depth chart (without Gurley in front of him) I think he'd have a whole, whole lot more buzz.  Put him in Indianapolis and the collective fantasy community would be running to the bathroom with the lotion and Kleenex.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I see your point, but my hunch is that Reid wont rest Charles unless they are winning or moving the ball easily.  The Chiefs aren't so stacked on offense that they are going to dominate lots of people and they have a couple key players out on Defense to stat the season so maybe its not as dominate either.  Ware certainly is a good lotto pick as for if Charles gets injured but I think you need deep benches to hold him like you would for McKinnon as well.

I see your point as well--but I think it comes down to draft strategy. For me personally---I generally try to draft players who I think have the highest and most consistent floors with my early to mid round picks.  I feel like that gives my teams a solid foundation to build upon. I generally look for players with the highest ceilings towards the latter rounds--and tend to fit in as many of them as possible. I never draft a backup Def, never a backup kicker, and I rarely ever draft a backup TE. I prefer to have my benches filled with high upside RB's and wr's--and hope that one of them hits.  With my drafting strategy--guys like Ware, McKinnon, A Morris are super rosterable even with benches that are only 5-6 deep. With that being said--that doesn't mean that your draft strategy is wrong--just means that it's different than mine.  

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I see your point, but my hunch is that Reid wont rest Charles unless they are winning or moving the ball easily.  The Chiefs aren't so stacked on offense that they are going to dominate lots of people and they have a couple key players out on Defense to stat the season so maybe its not as dominate either.  Ware certainly is a good lotto pick as for if Charles gets injured but I think you need deep benches to hold him like you would for McKinnon as well.

Ware is more than a lotto pick to start the season.  JC is not ready for a full workload at the start of the season..this is not speculation it is coming from Charles and Reid.

 

[JFS171]

He is a bit small played at around 175 during college. He was up to 190 at the combine. Special teams guy too. He is 5' 10" though and could put on some more muscle weight if needed.

I heart Tyler Ervin, and I own him everywhere.  I've seen some speculate Ervin will have more of an impact than Fuller or Miller on the Texans offense.  As you mentioned, he's a tremendous returner, and despite his size he carried a full workload at San Jose State.  He then destroyed the combine...

In Kevin Cole's Combine Results Decision Tree for RBs, if you consider Ervin as a 5'10" RB (he measured 5097, or 5' 9 7/8"), he falls into the 78% success bucket -- defined as having at least one RB1 (top-12) RB season in his first 3 years in the league.  That's based solely on the combine measurables, which aren't everything... but Ervin has the production from college and was the 119th draft pick out of a small school.

 

[Chaka]

Betting on a guy to pass Charles on talent seems like a loosing proposition.  Maybe McKinnon will put Peterson on the bench too.

I guess it depends on how you define talent.  Charles, without question, is one of the most gifted runners (and receiver out of the backfield) in the history of the NFL, on a better team he would have had a career rivaling Marshall Faulk.

But he is 29 years old coming off of his second torn ACL on the same knee (IIRC).  Judging by all the reports he isn't ready for a large workload just yet and there is no guarantee that he won't be significantly diminished for the rest of the year, if not his career.

Ware doesn't appear to be much of a receiver, he may even be a liability (he wasn't used in the passing game much at LSU either), but he sure looked like a very good runner in his limited action last season.  While his lifetime talent level is nowhere near Charles, and never will be, his talent level on 8/31/2016 looks to be significantly better.

Frankly, Charles is on my Avoid list and Ware is on my Lotto pick list.  That will probably end up as a neutral proposition, or maybe even bite me in the ### but right now I am much more comfortable with Ware on my roster late plus whatever player I would have on my roster at Charles 2nd round draft price (RB8).

 

[abbottjamesr]

Frankly, Charles is on my Avoid list and Ware is on my Lotto pick list.  That will probably end up as a neutral proposition, or maybe even bite me in the ### but right now I am much more comfortable with Ware on my roster late plus whatever player I would have on my roster at Charles 2nd round draft price (RB8).

Ware late is a safe play.  The cost is low and the upside is big, like a lotto ticket right.  And I get that there is little reason to take a risk in the 2nd as there are lots of good players available so why take one that is risky.  I don't disagree with this.  But I was getting the impression that people were looking at Ware as possibly being start worthy at the begining of the season and that was the reason for the bumping him to the top of the lotto ticket list.  I don't agree with that as he might get some usage but he might also split whats left from Charles being on pitch count with West.  And finally I think that if Charles is healthy to play he sees his typical 13-16 touches per game.  He has never been a high volume guy and its hard to see why they would limit him more.

 

[Teef]

Coming off Charles' first ACL tear, one year pre-Reid, he was around 25 and had Peyton Hillis brought in to help him out.  JC still averaged 20 touches per game and did very well with those touches (5.3 ypc).   His TD numbers were low, but he really didn't start entering the double-digit TDs until Reid showed up in '13.  It's tough to tell how KC will handle him, but I can't help but think KC will give him all he can handle since he's coming up on 30 with a few years left on his contract.

 

[Chaka]

Ware late is a safe play.  The cost is low and the upside is big, like a lotto ticket right.  And I get that there is little reason to take a risk in the 2nd as there are lots of good players available so why take one that is risky.  I don't disagree with this.  But I was getting the impression that people were looking at Ware as possibly being start worthy at the begining of the season and that was the reason for the bumping him to the top of the lotto ticket list.  I don't agree with that as he might get some usage but he might also split whats left from Charles being on pitch count with West.  And finally I think that if Charles is healthy to play he sees his typical 13-16 touches per game.  He has never been a high volume guy and its hard to see why they would limit him more.

Well most of the reports indicate that Ware has been getting the lions share of first team touches in practice and I think that has played out in the preseason games as well (don't quote me on that).  I think West is currently the CoP and Charles is just an X-factor at this point.  We really have no idea today, but I am guessing that prior to week one kickoff we will have more clarity.  That doesn't help anyone with a draft this weekend but it's my starting point for passing on Charles and targeting Ware.

 

[tombonneau]

Thought he was a tremendous prospect that fell in the draft due to splitting work at UT during the  deterioration of the Mack Brown regime.  His agility scores for his size are tremendously impressive, and he's looked great this spring.  I'd love to see them cut him and try to get him back to the practice squad, cause I can't imagine he'd get there.  Brown's a very talented RB, and on any other depth chart (without Gurley in front of him) I think he'd have a whole, whole lot more buzz.  Put him in Indianapolis and the collective fantasy community would be running to the bathroom with the lotion and Kleenex.

Great write up, thanks. Gonna handcuff him in my dynasty now.

 

[abbottjamesr]

 I think West is currently the CoP and Charles is just an X-factor at this point.

Please help me with this.  Are you saying that it is Reid's plan to use Ware as the lead back this season and to mix in West and Charles sporadically?   I don't know why you would think this.  Charles is a 8 year veteran rehabbing from a ACL surgery last year, his lack of touches in preseason practice and games should not be an indication in my mind of what his usage will be during the season.  

This might be my assumption of rational coaching, but I don't think you sit a guy that has a 5.4 career ypc unless you really believe he is washed up.  Yes I know Ware had 5.5 ypc last season as well but the sample size is 72 rushes and 6 rec vs 1314 and 284. 

Like I said before I think Charles' work load might be down to 13-15 touches per game to start the season, but I don't think Ware will be usefull in FF unless Charles misses time.

 

[JFS171]

I guess it depends on how you define talent.  Charles, without question, is one of the most gifted runners (and receiver out of the backfield) in the history of the NFL, on a better team he would have had a career rivaling Marshall Faulk.

But he is 29 years old coming off of his second torn ACL on the same knee (IIRC).  Judging by all the reports he isn't ready for a large workload just yet and there is no guarantee that he won't be significantly diminished for the rest of the year, if not his career.

Ware doesn't appear to be much of a receiver, he may even be a liability (he wasn't used in the passing game much at LSU either), but he sure looked like a very good runner in his limited action last season.  While his lifetime talent level is nowhere near Charles, and never will be, his talent level on 8/31/2016 looks to be significantly better.

Frankly, Charles is on my Avoid list and Ware is on my Lotto pick list.  That will probably end up as a neutral proposition, or maybe even bite me in the ### but right now I am much more comfortable with Ware on my roster late plus whatever player I would have on my roster at Charles 2nd round draft price (RB8).

Lack of usage and lack of ability are two different things.  In the third preseason game (the so called dress rehearsal), Ware caught 4 passes in the first half with the starters.  He basically operated like a 3-down back.  Obviously Charles didn't play, and it doesn't look like West played either... but Ware is capable.

 

[JFS171]

Well most of the reports indicate that Ware has been getting the lions share of first team touches in practice and I think that has played out in the preseason games as well (don't quote me on that).  I think West is currently the CoP and Charles is just an X-factor at this point.  We really have no idea today, but I am guessing that prior to week one kickoff we will have more clarity.  That doesn't help anyone with a draft this weekend but it's my starting point for passing on Charles and targeting Ware.

Please help me with this.  Are you saying that it is Reid's plan to use Ware as the lead back this season and to mix in West and Charles sporadically?   I don't know why you would think this.  Charles is a 8 year veteran rehabbing from a ACL surgery last year, his lack of touches in preseason practice and games should not be an indication in my mind of what his usage will be during the season.  

This might be my assumption of rational coaching, but I don't think you sit a guy that has a 5.4 career ypc unless you really believe he is washed up.  Yes I know Ware had 5.5 ypc last season as well but the sample size is 72 rushes and 6 rec vs 1314 and 284. 

Like I said before I think Charles' work load might be down to 13-15 touches per game to start the season, but I don't think Ware will be usefull in FF unless Charles misses time.

Waldman and Bloom talked about this on the FBG podcast - can't remember if it was the live one or the recent On the Couch, but their thought was Ware is the guy inside the 20s (and especially at the goal line) and Ware is probably the guy when they have a lead and are looking to bleed the clock.  I think this is probably especially going to be the case in the early going when Charles is still getting back up to speed.

 

[JFS171]

Thought he was a tremendous prospect that fell in the draft due to splitting work at UT during the  deterioration of the Mack Brown regime.  His agility scores for his size are tremendously impressive, and he's looked great this spring.  I'd love to see them cut him and try to get him back to the practice squad, cause I can't imagine he'd get there.  Brown's a very talented RB, and on any other depth chart (without Gurley in front of him) I think he'd have a whole, whole lot more buzz.  Put him in Indianapolis and the collective fantasy community would be running to the bathroom with the lotion and Kleenex.

More to add here... what makes Le'Veon Bell so special is his agility in such a large frame (plus the receiving ability too, of course).  What people miss about Malcolm Brown is nearly identical levels of agility. 

Bell tested at 6'1" and 230 lbs, posting an absurd 6.75 3-cone and a 4.24 short shuttle, good for a 10.99 Agility Score (Here's Shawn Siegele's original article on Agility Scores and Here's how he applied it to Le'Veon Bell -- RotoViz, so there's a pay wall but they give free reads if you're not a subscriber)

Brown tested at 5'11" and 224 lbs, posting an elite 6.86 3-cone and an absurd 4.15 short shuttle, good for an 11.01 Agility Score.

I am not suggesting Malcolm Brown = Le'Veon Bell.  I am suggesting Malcolm Brown has some untapped athletic ability, and there's a reason he was the top RB recruit in 2011 per Rivals, 2nd best RB per Scout, and 3rd best RB per 247Sports.

 

[JFS171]

Well most of the reports indicate that Ware has been getting the lions share of first team touches in practice and I think that has played out in the preseason games as well (don't quote me on that).  I think West is currently the CoP and Charles is just an X-factor at this point.  We really have no idea today, but I am guessing that prior to week one kickoff we will have more clarity.  That doesn't help anyone with a draft this weekend but it's my starting point for passing on Charles and targeting Ware.

Please help me with this.  Are you saying that it is Reid's plan to use Ware as the lead back this season and to mix in West and Charles sporadically?   I don't know why you would think this.  Charles is a 8 year veteran rehabbing from a ACL surgery last year, his lack of touches in preseason practice and games should not be an indication in my mind of what his usage will be during the season.  

This might be my assumption of rational coaching, but I don't think you sit a guy that has a 5.4 career ypc unless you really believe he is washed up.  Yes I know Ware had 5.5 ypc last season as well but the sample size is 72 rushes and 6 rec vs 1314 and 284. 

Like I said before I think Charles' work load might be down to 13-15 touches per game to start the season, but I don't think Ware will be usefull in FF unless Charles misses time.

Lack of usage and lack of ability are two different things.  In the third preseason game (the so called dress rehearsal), Ware caught 4 passes in the first half with the starters.  He basically operated like a 3-down back.  Obviously Charles didn't play, and it doesn't look like West played either... but Ware is capable.

And there's this...

ESPN Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher reports Jamaal Charles "hasn’t regained the role -- full-time featured back -- he had before last season’s torn ACL."

Teicher reports Spencer Ware is handling most of Kansas City's first-team running back reps in practice. Specifically, Teicher wrote that Ware "generally gets a lot of the starter’s snaps in practice. Charcandrick West gets some. Sometimes there are a few left for Charles, too." On Tuesday, coach Andy Reid said Tamba Hali (knee) is "a little further along than what Jamaal is right now," in their respective recoveries. At this point, it's unclear what Charles' role will be in Week 1 against the Chargers. An early-year RBBC appears likely. Due to their backfield depth, Teicher suggests the Chiefs "can afford to take the longer view with Charles."

 

 

[Chaka]

Please help me with this.  Are you saying that it is Reid's plan to use Ware as the lead back this season and to mix in West and Charles sporadically?   I don't know why you would think this.  Charles is a 8 year veteran rehabbing from a ACL surgery last year, his lack of touches in preseason practice and games should not be an indication in my mind of what his usage will be during the season.  

This might be my assumption of rational coaching, but I don't think you sit a guy that has a 5.4 career ypc unless you really believe he is washed up.  Yes I know Ware had 5.5 ypc last season as well but the sample size is 72 rushes and 6 rec vs 1314 and 284. 

Like I said before I think Charles' work load might be down to 13-15 touches per game to start the season, but I don't think Ware will be usefull in FF unless Charles misses time.

I don't think that at all.  I have said several times that as of 8/31/16 I think Ware will be the primary back in week 1 (maybe longer) because we really don't know Charles status.  That is what I meant when I said that Charles is an X-factor.  However all the report indicate that, at best, Charles will have a limited role in week 1.  We may know differently by 9:59 am Pacific Time next Sunday but right now Charles should be downgraded because it seems like he will not pay dividends in the short term.

I view it the same way I view LeVeon Bell and DeAngelo Williams.  You are drafting Williams a little higher and Bell a little lower because of the suspension.  Regarding Charles/Ware you should do the same thing, however I personally am bumping Ware significantly above his ADP (RB51 according to MFL, 12 team, redraft, non-ppr, all players drafted in 10% of leagues, real drafts after 8/25/16) and have him at RB34.  I probably wouldn't draft him there but that is about the time I will start looking at him as an option (that should fall somewhere around 8 in my league).

 

[abbottjamesr]

I don't think that at all.  I have said several times that as of 8/31/16 I think Ware will be the primary back in week 1 (maybe longer) because we really don't know Charles status.  That is what I meant when I said that Charles is an X-factor.  However all the report indicate that, at best, Charles will have a limited role in week 1.  We may know differently by 9:59 am Pacific Time next Sunday but right now Charles should be downgraded because it seems like he will not pay dividends in the short term.

I view it the same way I view LeVeon Bell and DeAngelo Williams.  You are drafting Williams a little higher and Bell a little lower because of the suspension.  Regarding Charles/Ware you should do the same thing, however I personally am bumping Ware significantly above his ADP (RB51 according to MFL, 12 team, redraft, non-ppr, all players drafted in 10% of leagues, real drafts after 8/25/16) and have him at RB34.  I probably wouldn't draft him there but that is about the time I will start looking at him as an option (that should fall somewhere around 8 in my league).

Nice write up.  I think looking at it like Bell is a good idea and I think I will make a similar adjustment to Charles on my board.  We play pretty short benches in my main big money league so I don't know if Ware will make it, but I am going to keep him in mind for sure for late in the draft.

 

[Chaka]

Nice write up.  I think looking at it like Bell is a good idea and I think I will make a similar adjustment to Charles on my board.  We play pretty short benches in my main big money league so I don't know if Ware will make it, but I am going to keep him in mind for sure for late in the draft.

At the very least he is a guy that may help your team get out of the gate early.  Good luck.

 

[Bojang0301]

Chris Thompson

 

[strong]

I heart Tyler Ervin, and I own him everywhere.  I've seen some speculate Ervin will have more of an impact than Fuller or Miller on the Texans offense.  As you mentioned, he's a tremendous returner, and despite his size he carried a full workload at San Jose State.  He then destroyed the combine...

In Kevin Cole's Combine Results Decision Tree for RBs, if you consider Ervin as a 5'10" RB (he measured 5097, or 5' 9 7/8"), he falls into the 78% success bucket -- defined as having at least one RB1 (top-12) RB season in his first 3 years in the league.  That's based solely on the combine measurables, which aren't everything... but Ervin has the production from college and was the 119th draft pick out of a small school.

i'm getting me excited about this kid...

was curious to see how fast he'd look on an NFL field and that kick return oh man. he looked fast.

 

[Milkman]

Please help me with this.  Are you saying that it is Reid's plan to use Ware as the lead back this season and to mix in West and Charles sporadically?   I don't know why you would think this.  Charles is a 8 year veteran rehabbing from a ACL surgery last year, his lack of touches in preseason practice and games should not be an indication in my mind of what his usage will be during the season.  

This might be my assumption of rational coaching, but I don't think you sit a guy that has a 5.4 career ypc unless you really believe he is washed up.  Yes I know Ware had 5.5 ypc last season as well but the sample size is 72 rushes and 6 rec vs 1314 and 284. 

Like I said before I think Charles' work load might be down to 13-15 touches per game to start the season, but I don't think Ware will be usefull in FF unless Charles misses time.

They are going to pull Charles at the GL and put Ware in all year including when Charles is 100% healthy. Ware is the best GL back in the league. 13-15 touches in between the 20s for JC. Thats it. Charles won't be on any of my rosters. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

They are going to pull Charles at the GL and put Ware in all year including when Charles is 100% healthy. Ware is the best GL back in the league. 13-15 touches in between the 20s for JC. Thats it. Charles won't be on any of my rosters.

Did you get this hot take when having a couple beers with Andy Reid at the neighborhood BBQ?  I'm a sucker and will take JC in the third in every draft I can.  Like printing money.

 

[Milkman]

Did you get this hot take when having a couple beers with Andy Reid at the neighborhood BBQ?  I'm a sucker and will take JC in the third in every draft I can.  Like printing money.

You must like slamming your head into walls.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

This is a dark horse.

It's being speculated that Tyler Gaffney is on the bubble in New England, in part because, per the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe: "his skills are somewhat redundant to LeGarrette Blount's".

I could not disagree more.

Gaffney cannot run people over like Blount has done to Colts linebackers repeatedly over the years, but he's a lot faster, shiftier and a better receiver while at the same time he's got some between the tackles ability that Lewis, White and Foster lack (Lewis is not a liability between the tackles because speed).  I see Gaffney as being a terrific blend of Blount and Lewis.  This was on display against Carolina when his speed was able to get things done against the exceptional Panthers LBs that Blount could not.

Having said all that, Howe's concerns about Gaffney making the roster may prove correct, but if he survives, he will generate more production than most people think.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Tonight in my ffpc draft (20 rounds) I took Ware in the 10th, McKinnon in the 12th, Booker in the 14th, West in the 17th and Kelley in the 18th.

Here are some blurbs from a pretty good nfl.com article about the 3rd slate of preseason games.

BUFFALO BILLS: Jonathan Williams, running back. LeSean McCoy and Reggie Bush are in line to carry the load as the team's top backfield weapons, but Williams is making a push for playing time as a rugged change-of-pace back. The rookie likely sealed his spot in the rotation with a 37-yard touchdown against the Redskins on Friday that showcased his balance, body control and vision. Although he finished the contest with just 42 yards on 11 carries, Williams' long run should be enough to encourage Bills' coaches about a long-term role as the RB3. GRADE: B-

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Jay Ajayi, running back. The second-year pro was at one point penciled in to be the Dolphins' workhorse back, but it'd be hard to justify his standing as the team's RB1 based on his preseason play. Ajayi is averaging only 2.4 yards per carry through three preseason games (15 attempts for 36 yards), including a seven-carry, 11-yard performanceagainst the Falcons on Thursday that highlighted concerns about his effectiveness as a lead back. With an established runner like Arian Foster in the stable in Miami, Ajayi's measly production could open the door for the veteran to star in the lead role. GRADE: C-

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Terrance West, running back. The third-year pro continued to solidify his grasp on the Ravens' RB2 job with another strong performance Saturday against the Detroit Lions. West rushed for 43 yards on seven carries while displaying strength, power, balance and body control as an effective "grinder" between the tackles. Despite his failures in previous spots (Cleveland and Tennessee), West is looking like a solid option for the team to turn to behind Justin Forsett. GRADE: B

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Robert Turbin, running back. The Colts need to find an effective runner behind Frank Gore to ignite the team's sagging running game. Turbin could be the guy after solidifying his status as the team's RB2 with an effective performance in a limited role against the Eagles on Saturday (in addition to picking up 24 yards on four carries, Turbin had an 81-yard touchdown run called back by a holding penalty). The 5-foot-10, 225-pounder runs with power and a tenacity that could bolster an offense that's looking to be more physical in 2016. Although the Colts' offensive line is currently a mess due to injuries and inexperience -- as evidenced by their disappointing showing against the Eagles (Andrew Luck was sacked three times and the ground game was limited to 39 yards) -- Turbin's hard-nosed running style could mask their inefficiencies at the point of attack.GRADE: B-

TENNESSEE TITANS: Derrick Henry, running back. The big-bodied runner will be a major factor for the Titans as a hammer between the tackles. The second-round pick continues to bully opponents with his rugged running style, as evidenced by his 12-carry, 49-yard effort against the Raiders on Saturday. He runs through tacklers in the hole but flashes better-than-anticipated footwork and lateral quickness. Henry uses a nifty jump-cut to skip into creases, showing remarkable agility for a 6-3, 247-pound runner. With Henry looking like an effective complement to veteran DeMarco Murray, the Titans' running game will be a problem for defensive coordinators around the league. GRADE: B+

DeAndre Washington, running back. The undersized dynamo is making a strong push for playing time following a strong effort that should cement his status as the team's RB2. Washington shows explosive speed, quickness and burst as a change-of-pace back, as evidenced by his 31-yard run in the second quarter against the Titans on Saturday. The fifth-round pick out of Texas Tech also showed solid receiving skills on a 6-yard touchdown reception on an angle route against man coverage. (Yes, Washington coughed up a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, but quarterback Matt McGloin's decision making was mostly to blame for that.) As the Raiders put more on the shoulders of Derek Carr in his third season, the presence of a multi-purpose back with hands and speed could add another dimension to an already-explosive attack. GRADE: B+

 

[BobbyLayne]

I love CJ Spiller as a flyer this season, Payton has been singing his praises since training camp and I believe he gets significant touches even with Ingram healthy. 

Payton's talk doesn't often translate to his game day decisions. Last year he was saying "we gotta figure how to get the ball into CJs hands more" in December while resurrecting Hightower.

But last year CJ missed the preseason & the first couple games, so I'm inclined to think 2016 might be different.

3 touches 27 yards tonight. Still think Hightower or even Murphy benefit if Ingram misses time, but it looks like Spiller may have the old Darren Sproles role.

Still on my wire. I have Ingram, Freeman, Duke, Henry, Ware & DeAndre Washington - think I'll leave him alone. But he should be FF relevant this year.