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2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

Spiller is depth (since Prosise is still injured) and P/K returns only (since Lockett is banged up and P/K returns require very little learning in terms of playbook/scheme). 

 
SameSongNDance said:
These are ranked assuming the format is 1PPR. The line between being apart of a RBBC and being a handcuff is thinning so some players may or may not be included. Anyway, what do yours look like.. or more importantly, who are you aggressively targeting?

  1. D. Henry (TEN) - I need to see this man touch the ball 20 times in a game
  2. J. McKinnon (MIN) - freaky freak
  3. C. Simms (TB) - has 3-down potential, played extremely well last year
  4. T. Coleman (ATL) - averaged 4.5 last year, good OL, would be a candidate for 20ish touches
  5. C. Michael (SEA) - may be a RBBC in SEA so I don't know if this counts
  6. B. Powell (NYJ) - skill set suited to PPR
  7. D. Washington (OAK) - would be working with a good OL and passes the eye test
  8. S. Ware (KC) - has shown he can be productive but may still have receptions siphoned off by West
  9. D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason
  10. T. Yeldon - Ivory's injury history
  11. C. Johnson (ARI) - candidate for 20+ touches
  12. J. Ajayi (MIA) - Foster's injury history
  13. A. Morris (DAL) - a mailbox could rush for 4+ ypc behind DAL's OL
  14. J. Starks (GB) - JAG but volume
  15. B. Cunningham (STL) - Rams suck
  16. R. Kelley (WAS) - I'm gonna pee on youuu
  17. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game role 
  18. S. Draughn (SF) - PPR
  19. P. Perkins - the latest NYG backfield dark horse 
  20. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud
  21. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - realistically needs a Newton injury as well as a Stewart injury
Click to expand...
I did a line strike through the name to indicate most likely gone or should be, but didn't erase so a short bench leaguer can still read it. Of what is left, I like the guys in green to be the difference makers if lead back goes down. Washington would be on that list if Jalen Richard didn't exist so will still be in a timeshare if Murray goes down. Perkins probably won't get full time duty either.

Booker, Powell, Morris, Johnson are all in offenses where the RB is featured and has many opportunities to score so all would be >= RB2 if they hit, while the rest I think would all be in the RB3 range with improbable RB2 upside.

Of these 4, grab Booker if in a keeper league because he is young, otherwise in redraft I think CJ or Morris would have the highest upside if they hit. Powell in my mind is the least talented of the group, and most likely to just be a RB2 while the other 3 have a better shot to crack the top12 each week.

Morris is the standout in a non PPR league.

If all the guys in green are gone, I would go Washington or Perkins

 
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Wendell Smallwood - RB - Eagles
Coach Doug Pederson had nothing but praise for rookie RB Wendell Smallwood's performance following the Week 3 win over the Steelers.
"He's the same type of runner that we felt he was coming out of college and what we saw in preseason," said Pederson. "He's a big, powerful guy. He's a downhill guy. He's a one-cut runner. He did a great job for us." At the link below, Philly Voice's Jimmy Kempski broke down a bunch of Smallwood's runs from the win, and his burst through the hole was incredible. He also showed great awareness to stay in bounds on a 3rd-and-7 run late in the fourth quarter to keep the clock moving. "To get the first down and stay in bounds as a rookie is tremendous," said Pederson. Smallwood missed much of training camp with a quad injury, but he looks poised to take on a big role in this backfield with Ryan Mathews again banged up and struggling to make plays
Click to expand...
.
http://www.phillyvoice.com/wendell-smallwood-game-review-gifs-and-stuff/
 
Good stuff in here. 
 
I dropped Ivory for Smallwood. 

Not feeling it all with Jax running game and if Smallwood gets the gig full time Katie bar the door. 

 
mnmplayer said:
These are ranked assuming the format is 1PPR. The line between being apart of a RBBC and being a handcuff is thinning so some players may or may not be included. Anyway, what do yours look like.. or more importantly, who are you aggressively targeting?

  1. D. Henry (TEN) - I need to see this man touch the ball 20 times in a game
  2. J. McKinnon (MIN) - freaky freak
  3. C. Simms (TB) - has 3-down potential, played extremely well last year
  4. T. Coleman (ATL) - averaged 4.5 last year, good OL, would be a candidate for 20ish touches
  5. C. Michael (SEA) - may be a RBBC in SEA so I don't know if this counts
  6. B. Powell (NYJ) - skill set suited to PPR
  7. D. Washington (OAK) - would be working with a good OL and passes the eye test
  8. S. Ware (KC) - has shown he can be productive but may still have receptions siphoned off by West
  9. D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason
  10. T. Yeldon - Ivory's injury history
  11. C. Johnson (ARI) - candidate for 20+ touches
  12. J. Ajayi (MIA) - Foster's injury history
  13. A. Morris (DAL) - a mailbox could rush for 4+ ypc behind DAL's OL
  14. J. Starks (GB) - JAG but volume
  15. B. Cunningham (STL) - Rams suck
  16. R. Kelley (WAS) - I'm gonna pee on youuu
  17. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game role 
  18. S. Draughn (SF) - PPR
  19. P. Perkins - the latest NYG backfield dark horse 
  20. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud
  21. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - realistically needs a Newton injury as well as a Stewart injury
I did a line strike through the name to indicate most likely gone or should be, but didn't erase so a short bench leaguer can still read it. Of what is left, I like the guys in green to be the difference makers if lead back goes down. Washington would be on that list if Jalen Richard didn't exist so will still be in a timeshare if Murray goes down. Perkins probably won't get full time duty either.

Booker, Powell, Morris, Johnson are all in offenses where the RB is featured and has many opportunities to score so all would be >= RB2 if they hit, while the rest I think would all be in the RB3 range with improbable RB2 upside.

Of these 4, grab Booker if in a keeper league because he is young, otherwise in redraft I think CJ or Morris would have the highest upside if they hit. Powell in my mind is the least talented of the group, and most likely to just be a RB2 while the other 3 have a better shot to crack the top12 each week.

Morris is the standout in a non PPR league.

If all the guys in green are gone, I would go Washington or Perkins
Click to expand...
Excellent work @mnmplayer and to answer your question, who are you aggressively targeting...

After this week's games (and pending tonight's MNF) here is my updated list.  Chris Johnson is absent due to the injury he suffered yesterday (extent unknown).

  •     D. Booker DEN <-- I have him stashed in both my leagues
  •     D. Henry TEN <-- I have him stashed in my 15 man roster league
  •     K. Dixon BAL <-- I have him stashed in my 15 man roster league
  •     B. Powell NYJ <-- I have him stashed in my 16 man roster league
  •     Smallwood PHI <-- I have him stashed in my 16 man roster league
  •     A. Morris DAL <-- He's only available in my 15 man roster league - I'm probably remiss in not rostering him over Dixon in that league
  •     S. Draughn SF <-- available in both
  •     Gillislee BUF <-- available in both
Honorable Mention:  Farrow SD <-- available in both

 
Have Howard starting, Henry stashed. Dropping Swaggy for Booker. Gonna leave Dixon alone for now (he was 17th rounder PS before the injury) - my league mates will bid up West. Maybe later in the bye weeks I'll add him.  Probably consensus strategy is to do the opposite (add Dixon now try to get Booker in a few weeks.) Just feels one situation is compelling the other seems muddled. West is JAG but not sure BAL will make Dixon relevant. Could be wrong on that.

Monitoring J Richard (return league) but avoiding Lewis..

Passing on Smallwood - am I missing something? I have him down as a good vision, gets what is given to him runner but rarely makes something out of nothing. Supposedly his pass pro was decent & he has the potential to be a steady producer. Not special though his combine numbers were good. 

I wouldn't take Spiller even if they allowed me a 19th roster spot just to hold him.

 
After another week's of games and waivers, here is my updated list.  I am in two leagues:  16 Man Roster ("16MR") and a 15 Man Roster ("15MR").  I've included info about my two leagues in case someone finds that info useful.  They are loosely ranked.

  • D. Booker - I have him rostered in both my 16MR and 15MR - I am a CJ owner in both - I drafted both in both my leagues
  • B. Powell - I have him in my 16MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 15MR
  • D. Henry - I have him in my 15MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR
  • K. Dixon - I have him in my 15MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR
  • A. Morris - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR and available in my 15MR
  • S. Draughn - available in both
  • Gillislee - available in both
  • Smallwood - I have him in my 16MR - someone else has him in my 15MR
Honorable Mention: 

Farrow SD <-- available in both

I also think that now that Bell is back - D Williams belongs on the list - I have him in both of my leagues (I drafted him in both).

Thoughts?  Is Morris a better Lotto Ticket than Dixon?  Or is his situation just better than Morris' barring unpredictable injuries?

 
daylight said:
After another week's of games and waivers, here is my updated list.  I am in two leagues:  16 Man Roster ("16MR") and a 15 Man Roster ("15MR").  I've included info about my two leagues in case someone finds that info useful.  They are loosely ranked.

  • D. Booker - I have him rostered in both my 16MR and 15MR - I am a CJ owner in both - I drafted both in both my leagues
  • B. Powell - I have him in my 16MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 15MR
  • D. Henry - I have him in my 15MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR
  • K. Dixon - I have him in my 15MR - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR
  • A. Morris - he is rostered by someone else in my 16MR and available in my 15MR
  • S. Draughn - available in both
  • Gillislee - available in both
  • Smallwood - I have him in my 16MR - someone else has him in my 15MR
Honorable Mention: 

Farrow SD <-- available in both

I also think that now that Bell is back - D Williams belongs on the list - I have him in both of my leagues (I drafted him in both).

Thoughts?  Is Morris a better Lotto Ticket than Dixon?  Or is his situation just better than Morris' barring unpredictable injuries?
Click to expand...
I'm not 100% sure Draughn would be the volume guy if Hyde were to be injured.  Mike Davis looked very good in preseason... may be a better fit for the every down role while Draughn's doesn't change much.

Another guy I'd put on the radar -- Malcolm Brown in STL.  Yes the offense is bad, and yeah it's Todd Gurley, but the usage of the RB there is through the roof and Cunningham, IMO, isn't a guy that can step into an every down role.  I think you'd see some committee between Brown and Cunningham, but Brown's a very, very talented back that just so happens to be sitting behind one of the best in the game.  Gurley hasn't exactly been an ironman at UGA or in the pros thus far, and with the usage he's getting, wouldn't be shocking to see him break down or hit the injury list at some point.

 
SoBeDad said:
Why? He was cut in September and was only brought back due to an injury. Ellington has done very well in 2 of the past 3 years.
Click to expand...
Because Arians won't trust him to be the workhorse if DJ went down. He'd have a change of pace role, but can't imagine much more than that.

 
zamboni said:
Because Arians won't trust him to be the workhorse if DJ went down. He'd have a change of pace role, but can't imagine much more than that.
Click to expand...
You're probably right that Arians wouldn't trust him, but he might not have a better option.

 
daylight said:
I've included info about my two leagues in case someone finds that info useful. 

They are loosely ranked.

  • D. Booker
  • B. Powell 
  • D. Henry 
  • K. Dixon 
  • A. Morris 
  • S. Draughn 
  • Gillislee 
  • Smallwood 
Click to expand...
Not especially to the bolded.

No offense, but the oft repeat "no one cares about your FF team or your league" still holds true.

What would be useful is the reasoning behind your rankings. 

I think Booker and Henry are clearly the top two handcuffs in the league right now. But they're also not fantasy relevant until the starter gets hurt.

Powell we've seen before. He is a good back. But his usage this year has been miniscule. But he seems more likely than Booker or Henry to have a chance since the incumbent in front of him is a little older and has more mileage. But again, we've seen him the lead back role for a game here or there. Good but def not great.

Dixon on the other hand could be the lead back by Halloween. Not a perfect situation over there in BAL but I think he's the top ranked lotto ticket based on opportunity in front of him.

Morris has looked great. Almost like the Almo of old. Not sure he'll get the opportunity but if he does look out.

Draughn and Smallwood have limitations from a talent perspective IMO. But opinions vary.

Gillislee is a guy I need to educate myself more about.

 
A bump and update, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom advises to hold him at all costs
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - don't know much about him
  • K. Dixon  BAL - has a lot of buzz
  • S. Draughn  SF - Chip prefers a workhorse
  • W. Smallwood PHI - belongs on this list?  opinions?
  • A. Ellington ARZ - belongs on this list?  opinions?

 
kittenmittens said:
Sorry I should have said dynasty.   
Click to expand...
Unless Simms is out or expecting to be limited.   Then grab him because he looks pretty good.  A Thomas Rawls quality back is a possibility here...  

If we are talking long term or even seasonal lotto ticket rankings,  Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber have to be near the top of your list as their talent level is high and their opportunities are near.   I would put them higher than anyone else listed here since the injury leading to their opportunities may have already occurred. 

 
Very curious to see if D Williams will have any value with Bell's return. Maybe not if, but how much, I would think at least a flex value as a floor.

Edit: i should have checked before posting, the usage last week was horrid, worse than I thought based on what I had heard on the radio and not having watched the game. if that's the trend then no value.

 
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Pigskin Fanatic said:
Very curious to see if D Williams will have any value with Bell's return. Maybe not if, but how much, I would think at least a flex value as a floor.
Click to expand...
We saw it last week.

He has zero value in your starting lineup unless Bell goes down. They don't do RBBC in Pittsburgh.

 
I would drop draughn off.  mike davis got as many or more snaps last night (did not look at stats, just guessing)

 
 I have alluded to these players before, but get a load of this.

 According to this chart on ESPN ---->  http://games.espn.com/ffl/leaders?&seasonTotals=true&seasonId=2016&slotCategoryId=2

 After week 4, there are two guys tied for 5th/6th at RB in standard.

 One is on a run first team, and all they try and do is run-run-run, and they have a seemingly above average defense. They also lost one of the more talented WRs in the league to injury/IR, so that means they will lean even more on the run. They also stopped NE in one game, and are apparently satisfied to do the "ground and pound".

I am referring to of  course  LeSean McCoy , and Mike Gillislee as his handcuff.

 Mike Gillislee  is only  3% owned on Yahoo , and is only owned 1.1% on ESPN.  He is apparently the clear cut handcuff, and not only that, Shady is now dealing with a "slight" hand injury. I am seriously contemplating dropping Rashad Jennings pre game Sunday and locking up Gillislee.  Jennings (although underappreciated) may just be part of a bull#### committee, and even if he isn't exactly how much is he going to produce?  I don't see his production as anywhere near what Gillislee's might be if McCoy happens to go down.

 The second back is in an odd place.  He is on a very bad team, and everyone thinks they will have to throw since they are losing most games and are looking like they will always be playing from behind. But get this.........this back is also somehow tied for 5th/6th, even though they are always trailing. In fact, even when they seemingly need to throw the ball, he is still getting a bunch of work. The QB situation is so bad there, they don't look like they are going to ever abandon the run.

 I am speaking of course about CARLOS HYDE. Oh but it gets even better...... Hyde has a bad history of injuries, and he missed much of last season too. Who backed him up  essentially got all the work while Hyde was out???? SHAUN DRAUGHN .  He looked "serviceable" at times last year, and yet again he is apparently the clear cut handcuff.

 Draughn is only owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues, and 4.5% of ESPN leagues.

 I only own Hyde in one spot, but I am trying to figure out a way to get Draughn on my roster. I am fortunate to be loaded in that league, so I may not be able to get Draughn and actually hold him.

 Regardless of however you view these players, they are in a prime position to get a load of work in the event of injury.

 Act now and try to get one or both of these on your roster in the appropriate leagues if you have space.

 After Sunday it might be too late.

TZM

 
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Sadly, I have a couple redraft teams where my RB situation is so bad, I'm still holding onto CJ Prosise.  I thought he would carve out a large role in Seattle's offense.  He hasn't been available, but I'm still holding out hope.

 
 If anything, the usage today of Gillislee should make it apparent he is the handcuff to LeSean McCoy. I think we all know Gillislee isn't a special talent, but workload alone on this run first team should make him a mandatory handcuff, whereas in the past I only looked at DeAngelo Wiliams, Chris Johnson, Morris  and a select few others as "mandatory". (in the right situations anyway)

 Gillislee has stepped into the "must have" area now, as us forward thinking owners start looking ahead towards playoff runs.

 I still can't figure out SD and Kenneth Farrow. The only other back that looked "active" on the roster was Dexter McCluster. Is it going to take an injury to Melvin Gordon for SD to even consider this guy? Didn't they learn anything from Woodhead and Oliver?  I just don't get it.

 Next week I have a brutal bye-week dilemma in one specific league, and that may be the only thing keeping me from acquiring Gillislee where I have Shady.

 TZM

 
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With the Giants offensive struggles and Darkwa JAG, I wonder if we'll see more of Perkins as the season goes along. Jennings will still assume his lead role presumably, but he's not the future. Rainey, however, seems to have his Vereen role carved out.

Perkins looks pretty electric out there - just needs to continue to learn the important nuances of the game like protecting Eli.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Arrows ticking up on Booker, Richard, Starks, West.
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Richard has had made a lot out of limited touches. Doesn't seem sustainable - it's still a 3 or 4 headed monster & neither he or DW are seeing GL work. I'll let someone else pick up Starks. He's looked awful this year though obviously he should be rostered everywhere by Wednesday. If you have West you probably started him - like Howard, he's put in two productive weeks versus weak run defenses. I'm still thinking it's Dixon eventually but that might be a month out. 

Booker is going to see a huge spike in ownership this week. Glad I picked him up preemptively. Not startable anytime soon but the trend is your friend.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Richard has had made a lot out of limited touches. Doesn't seem sustainable - it's still a 3 or 4 headed monster & neither he or DW are seeing GL work. I'll let someone else pick up Starks. He's looked awful this year though obviously he should be rostered everywhere by Wednesday. If you have West you probably started him - like Howard, he's put in two productive weeks versus weak run defenses. I'm still thinking it's Dixon eventually but that might be a month out. 

Booker is going to see a huge spike in ownership this week. Glad I picked him up preemptively. Not startable anytime soon but the trend is your friend.
Click to expand...
West is in weekly starter territory now that Ravens fired Trestman. Richard has had about the same amounts of touches as Washington but more points. Murray is hurt. There are a lot of fantasy points to go around with the Raiders. I like Richard going forward.

 
cjv123 said:
Yes. He's one more inevitable Ryan Matthews injury away from being a solid Rb2 and even Rb1 in the right matchup.
Click to expand...
I think you are overstating his prospects based on a very small sample size of one game. A game where he only had 24 total snaps on offense. 

With Matthews back Smallwood had one offensive snap yesterday against the Lions.

How long do you think people should hold him on their rosters waiting for his next chance?

 
Ilov80s said:
West is in weekly starter territory now that Ravens fired Trestman. Richard has had about the same amounts of touches as Washington but more points. Murray is hurt. There are a lot of fantasy points to go around with the Raiders. I like Richard going forward.
Click to expand...
Murray back Week 6?

ETA: Hoping. Turf toe can linger.

14-14-7 split & the guy nobody owns gets GL work. 

 
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