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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Trying to break down the D position here, so bear with me.  This is certainly open for discussion, and I am hoping for some feedback on my thought process.  First, let me just say, 16 of last year's top 25 finishers had only 2 D's.  Eight teams carried 3, and one had 4.

For this year's contest, sacks are 1 point, and turnovers (INT & fumble recovery) are 2 points.  Obviously, TD's are 6 points, but are very hard to predict.  For all the ways for a D to score points, which one is the easiest to predict?  For me, it's sacks, followed by interceptions.  All other D points can vary wildly from game to game, and year to year.  In 2017, there were only 6 teams that finished in the top 10 in both sacks and INT's.

I'm a firm believer that history repeats itself, as long as the status quo remains the same.  In regards to D's, that obviously means player personnel.  With that in mind, I have chosen to roster just 2 defenses, totaling $11.

Thoughts?
I'm going with 2 also. and 2 k. 

liking how my team is shaping up

 
Trying to break down the D position here, so bear with me.  This is certainly open for discussion, and I am hoping for some feedback on my thought process.  First, let me just say, 16 of last year's top 25 finishers had only 2 D's.  Eight teams carried 3, and one had 4.

For this year's contest, sacks are 1 point, and turnovers (INT & fumble recovery) are 2 points.  Obviously, TD's are 6 points, but are very hard to predict.  For all the ways for a D to score points, which one is the easiest to predict?  For me, it's sacks, followed by interceptions.  All other D points can vary wildly from game to game, and year to year.  In 2017, there were only 6 teams that finished in the top 10 in both sacks and INT's.

I'm a firm believer that history repeats itself, as long as the status quo remains the same.  In regards to D's, that obviously means player personnel.  With that in mind, I have chosen to roster just 2 defenses, totaling $11.

Thoughts?
I've been running with 3 at $9. 

A few minutes ago I dropped to 2 while keeping $9. I think I like this better but my plan had been a shotgun approach. 

 
Nearing the end...just need to sort out my TE depth....pretty irritating.

Tyler EifertCIN9

Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAX9

Jared CookOAK8

Vance McDonaldPIT8

Ben WatsonNO8

Charles ClayBUF8

Austin HooperATL8

Ricky Seals-JonesARI7

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Nearing the end...just need to sort out my TE depth....pretty irritating.

Tyler EifertCIN9

Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAX9

Jared CookOAK8

Vance McDonaldPIT8

Ben WatsonNO8

Charles ClayBUF8

Austin HooperATL8

Ricky Seals-JonesARI7
Check Dodd's ratings if you want.  ASJ gets a bump due to WR injury, and I have to agree.  Will Eifert stay healthy, I dunno.  Vance is already banged up.  Watson is old, but did you know he has one of the highest wonderlic scores of all time?  The dude is like a professsor (like George "the Animal" Steele).  With BUF's WR corps, I like Clay, and conversely, will shy away from Hooper (Julio, Sanu, and Ridley, also Foreman and Coleman).  I will also shy from RSJ (Fitz, Kirk, Williams, and most importantly, DJ).

BTW, thanx for leading me into my next post in this thread, which will be about TE's.  Stay tuned...

 
Check Dodd's ratings if you want.  ASJ gets a bump due to WR injury, and I have to agree.  Will Eifert stay healthy, I dunno.  Vance is already banged up.  Watson is old, but did you know he has one of the highest wonderlic scores of all time?  The dude is like a professsor (like George "the Animal" Steele).  With BUF's WR corps, I like Clay, and conversely, will shy away from Hooper (Julio, Sanu, and Ridley, also Foreman and Coleman).  I will also shy from RSJ (Fitz, Kirk, Williams, and most importantly, DJ).

BTW, thanx for leading me into my next post in this thread, which will be about TE's.  Stay tuned...
I had hopper in for a long time. I think this will be his best year yet, but you're right that there is competition. Finally decided to save a couple bucks. So now I'm trying to decide between 

Willson DET - 6
 M Gesicki MIA - 6
 V Green LAC - 6
 T Kroft CIN - 6
 J Butt DEN - 6
 G Everett LAR - 5
 E Dickson SEA - 5
 J Smith TEN - 5
 R Gathers DAL - 4
 T Higbee LAR - 4
 D Goedert PHI - 4

I can probably take Rico out now. 

 
I had hopper in for a long time. I think this will be his best year yet, but you're right that there is competition. Finally decided to save a couple bucks. So now I'm trying to decide between 

Willson DET - 6
 M Gesicki MIA - 6
 V Green LAC - 6
 T Kroft CIN - 6
 J Butt DEN - 6
 G Everett LAR - 5
 E Dickson SEA - 5
 J Smith TEN - 5
 R Gathers DAL - 4
 T Higbee LAR - 4
 D Goedert PHI - 4

I can probably take Rico out now. 
Umm, yes.  I am working on the above guys right now, trying to see if they hold value.  Last year, the contest was 1PPR for all, but now it's 1.5PPR for TE - that's huge!  Also, it makes those top tier TE's much more tasty.  I won't be surprised to see Gronk on lots of entrants, nor will it shock me to see people grab 2 studs, hoping to use 1 as a flex.  I bet some will even choose 3 studs and punt on WR and QB, hoping to get 2 flex spots.  Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz ($74) sounds insane, but there will be some that go this route.  It won't be me, however, because all have a late bye (9, 11, & 12).  If they were 4, 5, & 6, I would entertain the notion, but then come to my senses and spend elsewhere.  

 
Umm, yes.  I am working on the above guys right now, trying to see if they hold value.  Last year, the contest was 1PPR for all, but now it's 1.5PPR for TE - that's huge!  Also, it makes those top tier TE's much more tasty.  I won't be surprised to see Gronk on lots of entrants, nor will it shock me to see people grab 2 studs, hoping to use 1 as a flex.  I bet some will even choose 3 studs and punt on WR and QB, hoping to get 2 flex spots.  Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz ($74) sounds insane, but there will be some that go this route.  It won't be me, however, because all have a late bye (9, 11, & 12).  If they were 4, 5, & 6, I would entertain the notion, but then come to my senses and spend elsewhere.  
It was 1.5 last year

 
It was 1.5 last year
My bad, sorry.  I thought it was 1PPR across the board last year.  How did I screw that up?

ETA - The downgrade from 1PPR to .5PPR for RB's this year threw me off   I am sorry.

 
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Umm, yes.  I am working on the above guys right now, trying to see if they hold value.  Last year, the contest was 1PPR for all, but now it's 1.5PPR for TE - that's huge!  Also, it makes those top tier TE's much more tasty.  I won't be surprised to see Gronk on lots of entrants, nor will it shock me to see people grab 2 studs, hoping to use 1 as a flex.  I bet some will even choose 3 studs and punt on WR and QB, hoping to get 2 flex spots.  Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz ($74) sounds insane, but there will be some that go this route.  It won't be me, however, because all have a late bye (9, 11, & 12).  If they were 4, 5, & 6, I would entertain the notion, but then come to my senses and spend elsewhere.  
Fwiw, I'm spending $47 on 4 TEs. 

At the last iteration I removed Jimmy. That might come back to bite me.

 
This is it for me.  Winner Winner chicken dinner.

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/8 - $13
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7
RB - Jay Ajayi - PHI/9 - $20
RB - Lamar Miller - HOU/10 - $18
RB - Carlos Hyde - CLE/11 - $14
RB - Ty Montgomery - GB/7 - $12
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/7 - $11
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/9 - $25
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Jordy Nelson - OAK/7 - $13
WR - Mohamed Sanu - ATL/8 - $7
WR - Cole Beasley - DAL/8 - $5
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/9 - $5
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/9 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/5 - $11
TE - Jared Cook - OAK/7 - $8
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Steve Hauschka - BUF/11 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/7 - $2
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $2
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/9 - $2

Total value: 250

 
Fwiw, I'm spending $47 on 4 TEs. 

At the last iteration I removed Jimmy. That might come back to bite me.
Now that BassNBrew has taken me to school, I have to regroup.  After a self-inflicted groin shot, I will recalculate.

 
My personal thoughts on the TE's below...

Willson DET - 6 - Tate, Jones, Golladay, and Riddick, he will be option #5, and for $6, very unreliable.
 M Gesicki MIA - 6 - A total unknown at this point.  I won't try to sway you one way or the other, as I have no idea.
 V Green LAC - 6 - Rivers counted on Gates/Henry, but that had alot to do with their talent.  He's got 4 decent options at WR, and a RB who can catch.
 T Kroft CIN - 6 - Two words... Tyler and Eifert.  Kroft will be worth it if Tyler goes down.
 J Butt DEN - 6 - see Gesicki above
 G Everett LAR - 5 - Steering clear, as Higbee is a thorn, and the Rams have 3 capable WR's, and a very capable RB
 E Dickson SEA - 5 - Shying away, as he is banged up and has a few up-and-comers behind him.
 J Smith TEN - 5 - Hmmm?  There may be value in a guy who is backing up a 34-year old who hasn't done much this preseason
 R Gathers DAL - 4 - He certainly won't be on any of my rosters.
 T Higbee LAR - 4 - see Everett above, may cancel each other out
 D Goedert PHI - 4 - All aboard!

 
This is it for me.  Winner Winner chicken dinner.

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/8 - $13
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7
RB - Jay Ajayi - PHI/9 - $20
RB - Lamar Miller - HOU/10 - $18
RB - Carlos Hyde - CLE/11 - $14
RB - Ty Montgomery - GB/7 - $12
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/7 - $11
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/9 - $25
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Jordy Nelson - OAK/7 - $13
WR - Mohamed Sanu - ATL/8 - $7
WR - Cole Beasley - DAL/8 - $5
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/9 - $5
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/9 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/5 - $11
TE - Jared Cook - OAK/7 - $8
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Steve Hauschka - BUF/11 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/7 - $2
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $2
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/9 - $2

Total value: 250
Although the names are very common, I think your overall team will be unique.  Not a crazy fan of your RB's, but we never know, do we?  The only one I like for a full season is Miller - I think the rest may share time at some point, including Barber, who I have on my team.

 
Although the names are very common, I think your overall team will be unique.  Not a crazy fan of your RB's, but we never know, do we?  The only one I like for a full season is Miller - I think the rest may share time at some point, including Barber, who I have on my team.
I agree, very unique. Not the names I have been after but maybe that’s a good thing. 

 
Let's take a minute to discuss the TE position.  All of the top TE's have some negatives, but which negatives are you willing to overlook?

- Gronk - injury history, late bye week

 - Kelce - latest possible week, new QB

 - Ertz - possible reduction in targets with Goedert in town, QB carousel until Wentz proves healthy

 - Graham - is age catching up with him, will he gel with Aaron

 - Olsen - see Graham above, plus Cam has a new kid in town (DJ Moore)

- Engram - is the pie big enough with OBJ, Saquon, and Shepard

- Walker - injuries and a younger guy chomping at his heels

- Rudolph - see Engram above

- Reed - he's the poster child for Munchhausen's disease

- Burton - Inexperienced QB, a true wildcard of the top 10

- Doyle - A Finkle or Einhorn each week with Ebron, also, will he he block, or will he catch

As I look at their costs versus their projections, Dodds did a pretty good job, because none jump off the paper (relative to their own position, of course).  The top 7 are all within $1 per fantasy point of each other.  FYI - last year's top 25 carried an average of 2.8 TE's (1 had only 1, 6 had 4, the rest had 2 or 3).  I am certainly rostering 3, and may take a $3 4th, dollars permitting.

 
Let's take a minute to discuss the TE position.  All of the top TE's have some negatives, but which negatives are you willing to overlook?

- Gronk - injury history, late bye week

 - Kelce - latest possible week, new QB

 - Ertz - possible reduction in targets with Goedert in town, QB carousel until Wentz proves healthy

 - Graham - is age catching up with him, will he gel with Aaron

 - Olsen - see Graham above, plus Cam has a new kid in town (DJ Moore)

- Engram - is the pie big enough with OBJ, Saquon, and Shepard

- Walker - injuries and a younger guy chomping at his heels

- Rudolph - see Engram above

- Reed - he's the poster child for Munchhausen's disease

- Burton - Inexperienced QB, a true wildcard of the top 10

- Doyle - A Finkle or Einhorn each week with Ebron, also, will he he block, or will he catch

As I look at their costs versus their projections, Dodds did a pretty good job, because none jump off the paper (relative to their own position, of course).  The top 7 are all within $1 per fantasy point of each other.  FYI - last year's top 25 carried an average of 2.8 TE's (1 had only 1, 6 had 4, the rest had 2 or 3).  I am certainly rostering 3, and may take a $3 4th, dollars permitting.
TE is tough. I’m torn between Gronk and another strong TE, Gronk + mid-level + cheap flyer, or 2 strong + mid-level + flyer. Will prob come down to the last day. I would like to just do Gronk and Rudolph but afraid of losing one of them. 

 
Tier 1

Gronk - even more than AB Gurley and Rodgers, clearly alone at the top (no disrespect to the next 2).   Like the other stand-alones, it's purely a roster construction decision.

Tier 2

Kelce - initially avoided...think he'll be ok...only issue is the tiny discount versus Gronk...he could end up being more valuable.

Ertz - expect some regression (QB, offense, team, player) so I don't like the pricing a lot but only with respect to other choices

Tier 3

Graham - Fool's Gold or top value at this price....opinions vary and are deeply held.  I predict value.  Controversial price.

Tier 4

Olsen, Engram, Walker, Rudolph, Reed - throw a dart to differentiate these...take Reed for upside Rudolph or Engram for floor.  I could see Engram being the choice...just not my choice.

Tier 5 ($14 - $9)

Your list stopped at Burton and Doyle.  Burton is a potential blind spot for me.  Ebron may suck the life out out Doyle's production.  I'll roster neither at $14, nor any of the $11-$12 options.  I'm more interested in $7 - $9.  Below $7 and I really feel like you are throwing darts.

 
His mother used to pretend he was sick to get attention?  I did not know this.
I can't keep up with all these new age definition changes....

Munchausen syndrome used to be its own disorder, but under the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5), it is now called factitious disorder imposed on self. Similarly Munchausen's syndrome by proxy (for Mom) is now called factitious disorder imposed by caregiver.  

Fricken millenials.

 
Am I the only one that is strongly considering Jeremy Hill now that he has made the team?

3 dollars, Burkhead and Michel are already dealing with injuries and Burkhead never seems to stay healthy, Michel has fumbling issues, White is strictly a 3rd down back. I could see Hill taking the Blount role in this offense  by mid season do to injury. 

 
Am I the only one that is strongly considering Jeremy Hill now that he has made the team?

3 dollars, Burkhead and Michel are already dealing with injuries and Burkhead never seems to stay healthy, Michel has fumbling issues, White is strictly a 3rd down back. I could see Hill taking the Blount role in this offense  by mid season do to injury. 
Nope. 

 
Am I the only one that is strongly considering Jeremy Hill now that he has made the team?

3 dollars, Burkhead and Michel are already dealing with injuries and Burkhead never seems to stay healthy, Michel has fumbling issues, White is strictly a 3rd down back. I could see Hill taking the Blount role in this offense  by mid season do to injury. 
I have Hill and Dorsett, but then I'm a homer.  Was going to add Hollister :D

 
Let's take a minute to discuss the TE position.  All of the top TE's have some negatives, but which negatives are you willing to overlook?

- Gronk - injury history, late bye week

 - Kelce - latest possible week, new QB

 - Ertz - possible reduction in targets with Goedert in town, QB carousel until Wentz proves healthy

 - Graham - is age catching up with him, will he gel with Aaron

 - Olsen - see Graham above, plus Cam has a new kid in town (DJ Moore)

- Engram - is the pie big enough with OBJ, Saquon, and Shepard

- Walker - injuries and a younger guy chomping at his heels

- Rudolph - see Engram above

- Reed - he's the poster child for Munchhausen's disease

- Burton - Inexperienced QB, a true wildcard of the top 10

- Doyle - A Finkle or Einhorn each week with Ebron, also, will he he block, or will he catch

As I look at their costs versus their projections, Dodds did a pretty good job, because none jump off the paper (relative to their own position, of course).  The top 7 are all within $1 per fantasy point of each other.  FYI - last year's top 25 carried an average of 2.8 TE's (1 had only 1, 6 had 4, the rest had 2 or 3).  I am certainly rostering 3, and may take a $3 4th, dollars permitting.
Yeah everyone has warts. 

Gronk is too costly since you can count on him missing 3 or 4 games. 

Kelce I like but a new QB who may not throw to his TE as much. Plus Watkins is there. Overall I like Kelce a lot more than others at the top. of you're going to take a top 3 I think it's hard to pass on Kelce. 

Ertz, as you mentioned. I agree. I think hes a top 5, maybe a little over priced. 

Graham is older and seems to always be banged up. otherwise I do like him a lot. I think he's a huge RZ target for Rodgers. I find him to be a bargain at his price. I'd consider taking him. 

Olsen aside from last year hes been very healthy and gets targets. He does have Cam who is awful at times, and DJ Moore. and hes older. I'd consider taking him as well. 

Engram I think reproduces pretty close to last year. slight down tick due to the talent around him, but I think he still gets his. definitely one of the better ones at the top IMO. 

Walker is very old and I have a feeling he will be a little banged up all season. still a safe option for at least 100 targets if healthy. Sounds like TN is going to be running a few multi TE sets so I'm not sure what that means for him; if they are going to work Smith in. 

Rudolph I like but QB concerns me somewhat. Add him to my "would take" list. He seems to be consistent. 

Reed I'm surprised people are taking. I have never considered him even though Alex Smith bodes well for his value. hes always hurt.

Burton I like a lot but Chicago is like Cleveland where we are to believe that everyone is going to be amazing. not buying it. Burton is likely a bargain here but I see his ceiling about that of Rudolph, which isnt bad at all. I have had him on my roster. I'd love him as my TE2, and I could make it happen if I ditched my TE2 and TE3. not sure if I will... maybe. 

Doyle I'd like if Ebron wasnt there. they will eat into each others value. 

Njoku... see Burton. Will pass even though I did at one point have him. 

Howard same as Doyle, but with Brate. just hard to predict. I'd take Howard I guess and I have had him on my roster during this process. 

That being said I have 4 TEs rostered and I'm really liking the guys I have

 
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So....who's jumping from Barber to Breida?

:D
It would be one thing if you could roster all 3 49er running backs for around 15 bucks, but I am not gambling 11 to own 2/3rds of the backfield and you may not even have the guy that gets the most touches and will surely get all the goal line work.

 
It would be one thing if you could roster all 3 49er running backs for around 15 bucks, but I am not gambling 11 to own 2/3rds of the backfield and you may not even have the guy that gets the most touches and will surely get all the goal line work.
I'm not even considering the fullback.  Having said that, I don't think today's news brings Breida up to Barber territory but I'd definitely think about him over Carson....maybe this makes him a rich man's Powell.  I don't think I can fit him in my roster though.

 
How do I find the 2017 results?  Tried searching in this thread. I would like to look at rosters from the top 25 last year. I’ll keep searching. 

 
considering dropping from Aaron Jones to Brieda and saving a dollar to maybe upgrade from Ryan to Cousins. if that's an upgrade

Only problem is Brieda is still in a time share. not that Jones isnt too, but Jones has that one play ability

 
considering dropping from Aaron Jones to Brieda and saving a dollar to maybe upgrade from Ryan to Cousins. if that's an upgrade

Only problem is Brieda is still in a time share. not that Jones isnt too, but Jones has that one play ability
Same boat here.  I could save a buck, and Breida's week 11 bye would actually be better for me than Aaron's week 7 bye.  I think the question to ask yourself is this - who do you think will be the better late season producer?  For now, I'm standing pat with Aaron Jones, but we still have 3 days to decide.  I'm sure I will change something before then; I just don't know what it is yet.

 
Same boat here.  I could save a buck, and Breida's week 11 bye would actually be better for me than Aaron's week 7 bye.  I think the question to ask yourself is this - who do you think will be the better late season producer?  For now, I'm standing pat with Aaron Jones, but we still have 3 days to decide.  I'm sure I will change something before then; I just don't know what it is yet.
I'm very likely staying with Jones. I just see him as a late season league winner

ETA: I'm running out of things to change 

 
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Or making room for both? Two starting RBs for a total of $16 is a no brainer, right?
Here’s my thinking on that.  In a regular fantasy league I’d be all over those guys, but being that this is a best ball contest they don’t intrigue me much.  I’m looking for RBs that can put up 25+ weeks and those two don’t strike me as it.  I’d much rather roster a James Conner or Corey Clement, guys who if they take over have monster potential.    

 
HairySasquatch said:
Gates is back to give us one more TE to talk about.
His last 100 yard game was 5 years ago.  His YPC has dipped down to 10, because he just can't get separation anymore.  He doesn't have to learn the playbook, which is nice, but he will better be served as a cheerleader on the sidelines.  He may see a few RZ targets though, because that's the one place where separation from defenders doesn't apply too much.  For $6, I will pass.

 

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