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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

I think I am locked in:

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/7 - $14
QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/8 - $13
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28
RB - Kenyan Drake - MIA/11 - $21
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $20
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4
WR - Demaryius Thomas - DEN/10 - $21
WR - Josh Gordon - CLE/11 - $18
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/12 - $13
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Donte Moncrief - JAX/9 - $5
TE - Evan Engram - NYG/9 - $19
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $6
TE - Jesse James - PIT/7 - $3
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4
PK - Daniel Carlson - MIN/10 - $3
PK - Aldrick Rosas - NYG/9 - $2
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/10 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/7 - $5

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Not to spread unjustified panic, but I've started reading the DFS forums and there is a significant community that makes compelling arguments that McCaffery will regress this year, based on multiple factors including Norv "Deep Ball" Turner, the presence of CJA who despite his warts is a good pass catcher, etc.

McCaffery has been on my roster for some time now, as I think the Panthers are going to be a much better team this year, but the above perspective is giving me pause....

Hold me...re-assure me....
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I’m all aboard. I can’t stand Cam so hate having a Panther on my team but I am still drinking the Koolaid. Top 5 back. 

ETA: Not AS high on him in the contest since only 0.5ppr but I would still feel confident having him. 

 
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I am locked in, I think

QB - Philip Rivers - LAC/8 - $13
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - KC/12 - $11
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10

Went with Rivers as my stud, and 2 guys who I think might have low ownership, but high upside.

RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Kenyan Drake - MIA/11 - $21
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Jamaal Williams - GB/7 - $15
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4
RB - Jeremy Hill - NE/11 - $3

I think McCaffrey, Freeman, and Conner are chalk. Hoping Drake and Williams come through for me. I also have a feeling Hill is going to have a year like Blount did a few years ago because I don't trust Burkhead to stay healthy. Maybe not 18 touchdowns, but 800 yards and 10 touchdowns.

WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $6
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - Geronimo Allison - GB/7 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Taywan Taylor - TEN/8 - $4
WR - Phillip Dorsett - NE/11 - $2

I went volume here. My strengths of my team are tight end and especially running back. So I went with a lot of guys hoping 2 of them give me decent numbers each week. I think the problem I might run into is all these guys are the chalk value picks.

TE - Jordan Reed - WAS/4 - $16
TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14
TE - George Kittle - SF/11 - $12
TE - Nick Vannett - SEA/7 - $3

I think this is the year Reed stays healthy and can see him pushing for tight end number 1 overall. Burton is chalk, I like Kittle more now that McKinnon is hurt. I think he becomes Garoppolo's safety net. Vannett is a cheap starting dart throw

PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2

I just went cheap with different bye weeks

TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/10 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

I really like the Ravens defense, I liked the Bears before the Mack move. Wish they made it later because it is the chalk play, Browns are just cheap and could be good.

 
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here is my final squad:

QB - Philip Rivers - LAC/8 - $13
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - SF/11 - $12
QB - Jared Goff - LAR/12 - $11

RB - David Johnson - ARI/9 - $34
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/7 - $11
RB - James White - NE/11 - $9
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT/7 - $21
WR - Nelson Agholor - PHI/9 - $13
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3

TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14
TE - David Njoku - CLE/11 - $12
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $4
TE - Ryan Griffin - HOU/10 - $3

PK - Wil Lutz - NO/6 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $5

TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/10 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5

 
There are so many cheap chalk WRs who will be heavily owned I'm getting last minute urges to be contrarian and spend up for lower owned studs. 

 
Hybrid said:
There are so many cheap chalk WRs who will be heavily owned I'm getting last minute urges to be contrarian and spend up for lower owned studs. 
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That was were I was at earlier today, but I had a difficult time blowing the team up and getting a team I liked. Good luck for you though

 
Guess I'll post my final final and head to bed.  Alarm is ringing early tomorrow, so I'll catch up with everyone then.  Thoughts intertwined within.  Copy my players/strategy at your own peril.  I've never sniffed the final 250.

QB - Alex Smith - WAS/4 - $12
QB - Marcus Mariota - TEN/8 - $11
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7

I locked in on Smith and Mariota early, as I like their combined schedules.  I vacillated between several of the $7-11 QBs as my third before settling for Trubisky and spending the additional four bucks on a cheap receiver.

RB - David Johnson - ARI/9 - $34
RB - Melvin Gordon - LAC/8 - $30
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

Two studs, and Freeman being named the starter out of the box only helps my cause.   Carrying only 5 guys is a risk as LB could return to PIT at any time, but I decided he was worth the risk, having four other starters (no, I don't see RoJo as a factor this year in TB.

WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/11 - $19
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - Geronimo Allison - GB/7 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Taywan Taylor - TEN/8 - $4
WR - Terrance Williams - DAL/8 - $4

Bargain basement hunting here.  For the longest time, I wanted Nuk, but chose volume at WR and TE instead.  So I think I have three pretty good values in Landry, Cole and Brown.  I like Allison to supplant Cobb in a high-powered offense.  The other three guys are cheap WRs with upside.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/4 - $20
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $4
TE - Blake Jarwin - DAL/8 - $3
TE - Nick Vannett - SEA/7 - $3

Yes, five TEs.  I don't think it's insane with two flex and 1.5 ppr.  Kelce and Olson will probably count for me every week, and I have three guys for ten bucks that have a good chance of being my FLEX 2.

PK - Mason Crosby - GB/7 - $4
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3

I just wanted three guys I'm fairly certain will last through the season.  The $2 guys make me nervous.

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/8 - $4
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

I was on the fence with the Bears before the Mack trade, and that swung me.  The Titans have a huge upside with a bunch of new additions, and the Browns are probably the best $2 defense that I've seen in this contest.  

At least before the season starts.  You know, when we all have the winning roster.

Good luck all, and I look forward to reading your strategies with your rosters!

 
Now that the deadline approaches I’d like to share my excel solver studies on optimizing roster construction.  I’m not misguided enough to think this answers anything definitively.  I’m sharing it because it was fun to do, and because I think the results are interesting.  If nothing else, it’s an interesting introduction to solving linear optimization problems using excel.

Its pretty easy to setup a spreadsheet to find the maximum starter points given a budget and various roster constraints.

Youtube has many videos showing how to use Excel Solver.  The video below is unnecessarily long but has relevant subject matter…even if its geared for DFS rather than a bestball auction.

Cool "DFS Optimizer" In Excel....

Problem Statement

Given a table which can be built from auction values and projections containing position, cost and projected points for each player (1QB/2RB/2WR/2TE/2Flex), maximize starter points subject to the following constraints:

-          Starter Budget Cap (which can be varied in multiple runs of the solver)

-          Number of QBs = 1

-          Min number of TEs = 1

-          Min number of RBs = Min number of WRs = 2

-          Sum of TEs, RBs, WRs = 8 (this allows the solver to find the best two flex starters)

-          The player counter variable is a binary variable (i.e. can only be 0 or 1…see video)

A typical solver output, for budget 170, follows….

Solver Output

At this budget level, the optimizer has chosen two elite RBs and two elite TEs, filling the first flex position with Travis Kelce and second with Brandon Cooks (good but not elite).  The QB is also not elite, but does not currently have to worry about Jaelen Ramsey calling him trash.

Let’s see what the model does as we vary Starter Budget Cap from 120 to 220….with emphasis on when it selects elite players as budget is increased….

Optimal Starter Roster Construction As Starter Budget Increases....

Positions Filled with Elite Players As Budget Cap Varies…..

-          Cap 120: 1 RB, 1 TE

-          Cap 135: 1 RB, 2 TE

-          Cap 150: 2 RB, 0 TE

-          Cap 170: 2RB, 2 TE

-          Cap 190: 2RB, 2 TE, 1WR

-          Cap 220: 2RB, 2 TE, 2WR

Noteworthy are the absence of elite QB, the priority of TE over WR, and the near equal priority on RB despite the RB PPR disadvantage.  These are not shocking (draft QBs late, elite TE value at 1.5ppr, RB scarcity), but its interesting to see the progression nevertheless.

We can also Consider the total points projected as a function of budget cap to see if there are any interesting patterns….the table below includes the progressions from both the latest projections and projections available when the contest started….

Optimized Points As Starter Budget Increases....

The rate of change of points as budget cap increases suggests there are “sweet spots” in roster composition.  For example, in the latest projections, when I increase cap from 150 to 160 I gain 61 points, but when I increase cap from 160 to 170 I “only” gain 37 points.  This is of course related to the price / projection curves of all the players, but when you are trying to decide how much you want to allocate to starters versus backups it’s at the least interesting to consider.

Of course if you built a more complex and likely non-linear model to optimize the entire roster you wouldn’t have to apply such judgement….how about you go ahead and do that for me?

 
Total flyer roster Plenty of pretty much all or nuthin.

QB - Drew Brees - NO/6 - $18
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $3

I think Brees ends up the MVP and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder after last year's playoff loss.

RB - LeSean McCoy - BUF/11 - $21
RB - C.J. Anderson - CAR/4 - $12
RB - Jordan Wilkins - IND/9 - $5

McCoy has top 5 upside and La Brea tar pit downside and freaking Jonathon Stewart ran for 700 and 6 last year

WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/8 - $30
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN/10 - $22
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/11 - $19
WR - Julian Edelman - NE/11 - $17
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/9 - $12

Maybe too much emphasis here considering the rules. But what the heck, I'm too tired to change again, some more

TE - Jordan Reed - WAS/4 - $16
TE - David Njoku - CLE/11 - $12
TE - Tyler Eifert - CIN/9 - $9
TE - Tyler Kroft - CIN/9 - $6

If Eifert or Reed stays healthy...

PK - Robbie Gould - SF/11 - $4
PK - Daniel Carlson - MIN/10 - $3

Meh. Idiot Kickers
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/10 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5

 
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - KC/12 - $11
QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/10 - $5
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $4

If not for the late bye, I think Mahomes would be on most rosters. Flacco has looked good so far but I'm not confident he starts the whole year, solution take Lamar and actually hope Flacco gets benched because the upside is higher in FF.

RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/9 - $29
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/8 - $21
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4
RB - Rod Smith - DAL/8 - $3
RB - Chase Edmonds - ARI/9 - $3

Studs and duds approach. Connor is going to be on every team. He was on mine for a while but then I also had Kelly in case one of the 4 top dogs got injured. 

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/7 - $37
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $6
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5

Totally agree with the point made earlier, there are a lot of receivers in the $5-8 range worth taking. Decided I'd take two receivers I'm confident in and 5 which will probably be widely owned.

TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/11 - $26
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
TE - Gerald Everett - LAR/12 - $5
TE - Adam Shaheen - CHI/5 - $2

Gronk smash. I know Shaheen is injured but he's $2 and hopefully he'll return.

PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Daniel Carlson - MIN/10 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3

Three dudes with jobs.

TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/8 - $4
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

I started with these two defenses and now I end with them. Every one will have the browns at $2

 
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - SF/11 - $12
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $10
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6

Dak rises above o line fears and no name receiving corps.  Each has potential to crack top 10, Jimmy G might even evolve into pure energy.

RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/6 - $35
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - Jeremy Hill - NE/11 - $3

Early byes; no conflicts.

WR - Devin Funchess - CAR/4 - $16
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/12 - $14
WR - Kenny Stills - MIA/11 - $11
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6

Roster geared to get most of the flex scoring from equal parts RB and TE.  I think this 5 can deliver serviceable WR1 and WR2 scoring weekly.

TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/11 - $26
TE - Jimmy Graham - GB/7 - $20
TE - Austin Seferian-Jenkins - JAX/9 - $9
TE - Ryan Griffin - HOU/10 - $3

The other Jimmy G is considered to be nothing more than a red zone target.  I call BS.

Remember when immaturity destroyed the hopes and dreams we all had for ASJ once upon a time?  I still believe.

PK - Mason Crosby - GB/7 - $4
PK - Caleb Sturgis - LAC/8 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3

TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/10 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5

Half my roster spend is 5 teams....Carolina, New England, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Baltimore.

Parting comment....In honor of Jimmy G's infamous date with Kiara Mia I have re-set my team nickname to JimmyGsMamaMia.

Best of luck to all.  I'm exhausted :P

 
LOL.  Completely blanked and forgot about the Thursday night game.  Scrambled to throw together a roster in about 30 minutes late tonight after my last draft.  Just a mess, which means I'm gonna roll to the championship... or get eliminated in week 2.  Either way, it'll be fun while it lasts.  I'm a long-standing 3 QB/3 PK/3 DST guy.  This year I'm rocking 4 QB because I have to roster Foles.  Yeah, he probably isn't going to start again after week 1, maybe week 2.  But maybe....  And if that maybe happens, we know what he's capable of.  And his ownership will be low.

25 players:  4 QB, 6 RB (more than I usually roster, but I like some cheap fliers; I'm fading McCaffrey which I know is not the correct play in this format since everyone is going to have him, but I just think last year represented the upside of the guy and CJA is going to get his touches and Cam will get his runs and that OL looks crummy), 6 WR (1-2 fewer than I would like, but the RBs just looked like better plays to me, the Josh Gordon dart is expensive, but I'm buying it), 3 TE, 3 PK, 3 DST.

Good luck all.

 
QB - Drew Brees - NO/6 - $18
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10
QB - Case Keenum - DEN/10 - $7

RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $20
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - James White - NE/11 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/11 - $8
RB - Spencer Ware - KC/12 - $6
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - DEN/10 - $17
WR - Corey Davis - TEN/8 - $15
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/9 - $12
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Anthony Miller - CHI/5 - $7
WR - Danny Amendola - MIA/11 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/10 - $5

TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/11 - $26
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/10 - $16

PK - Zane Gonzalez - CLE/11 - $2
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
PK - Aldrick Rosas - NYG/9 - $2
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2

TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/8 - $4
TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/7 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

 
Overall, a risky team, but I believe in the players so could be big reward.  Swinging for the fences, could be out early if things go south. 

QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7

QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6

QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $3

Definitely risk here, but I believe in Trubisky and Darnold looks good so far.  Only spending $16 on QBs will open up some other players I could not afford with more expensive QBs.

RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/9 - $29

RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26

RB - Chris Carson - SEA/7 - $11

RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8

RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

RB - John Kelly - LAR/12 - $3

$81 spent on RBs.  Like my 2 studs.  Even with 1/2 PPR for RBs, McCaffery could have a monster season.  Carson and Barber look good and will have a chance to hold the jobs.  

WR - DeAndre Hopkins - HOU/10 - $35

WR - Julian Edelman - NE/11 - $17

WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $9

WR - Anthony Miller - CHI/5 - $7

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6

WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3

$77 spent on WRs. Like most, I have inexpensive WRs I like so built around those.  Hopkins as my stud with Edelman after week 4 (assuming I make it that far).  Like my chances to get a contribution from one of the inexpensive WRs most weeks and possibility for a breakout.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25

TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/9 - $23

TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14

$62 spent on TEs.  Need Kelce and Ertz to stay healthy or this house of cards will fall.

PK - Zane Gonzalez - CLE/11 - $2

PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2

PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5

TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $3

 
BillyJoeBob said:
Overall, a risky team, but I believe in the players so could be big reward.  Swinging for the fences, could be out early if things go south. 

QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7

QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6

QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $3

Definitely risk here, but I believe in Trubisky and Darnold looks good so far.  Only spending $16 on QBs will open up some other players I could not afford with more expensive QBs.

RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/9 - $29

RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26

RB - Chris Carson - SEA/7 - $11

RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8

RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

RB - John Kelly - LAR/12 - $3

$81 spent on RBs.  Like my 2 studs.  Even with 1/2 PPR for RBs, McCaffery could have a monster season.  Carson and Barber look good and will have a chance to hold the jobs.  

WR - DeAndre Hopkins - HOU/10 - $35

WR - Julian Edelman - NE/11 - $17

WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $9

WR - Anthony Miller - CHI/5 - $7

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6

WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3

$77 spent on WRs. Like most, I have inexpensive WRs I like so built around those.  Hopkins as my stud with Edelman after week 4 (assuming I make it that far).  Like my chances to get a contribution from one of the inexpensive WRs most weeks and possibility for a breakout.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25

TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/9 - $23

TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14

$62 spent on TEs.  Need Kelce and Ertz to stay healthy or this house of cards will fall.

PK - Zane Gonzalez - CLE/11 - $2

PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2

PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5

TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $3
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Gutsy, I like it.

Not what I would do, min you, but I like it.

-QG

 
My team is gonna be too common but it's a group I feel best about - can't help it.

Also trying to busy myself looking at other stuff so I don't change it again last minute.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Gutsy, I like it.

Not what I would do, min you, but I like it.

-QG
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Understood.   Tough to balance getting to the final 250 with having a legitimate chance to win when you get there.  Lots would have to go right to get to the finals, but I like my team if I get there.  

Good luck in the contest QG

 
BillyJoeBob said:
Understood.   Tough to balance getting to the final 250 with having a legitimate chance to win when you get there.  Lots would have to go right to get to the finals, but I like my team if I get there.  

Good luck in the contest QG
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Thanks :) Likewise. I like bold strategies - I just don't employ 'em :bag:

-QG

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I’m not knocking anyone. In this format it’s better to be in the majority than an outlier. If someone is massively owned, the correct play is absolutely to get on board. 
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Usually it's better :)   But if he's right he dodges a bullet.

I will say that it does seem like there's not a true overlay like Kareen Hunt this year.  I think there will be a number of seriously owned players but I don't know that we'll be on track to get someone that's on all 250 final rosters.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Usually it's better :)   But if he's right he dodges a bullet.

I will say that it does seem like there's not a true overlay like Kareen Hunt this year.  I think there will be a number of seriously owned players but I don't know that we'll be on track to get someone that's on all 250 final rosters.

-QG
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Hunt was definitely an extreme case. But if a guy like Royce starts strong, he could push into a really high ownership percentage. If so, I’m in trouble. But, his salary isn’t negligible so if I’m right and he struggles, his owners likely meet the Turk early. Which means I no longer have an advantage later. It’s just better to be w/ the masses (even though I’m not doing it on him or McCaffrey). 

 
Okay... I must have changed my rooster about 20 times in the last hour and a half.... but I finally realized I was done when the clock struck 12:00.  So here's my team and strategy... Went big this year as I tried to play lucky last year and it bit me with an early departure.

Strategy:  Value picks with a strong RB core.  I felt there were minimal bargains on the RB side, so I wanted two dependable guys with early byes.  Felt like there was a ton of value everywhere else.

  • QBs  (3 for $18, avg $6): 


    Carr (7)
  • Dalton (9)
  • Darnold (11)
  • Yeah they suck.  That was the strategy.  Hoping for lots of garbage points with teams that need to throw it a lot.

[*]RBs (6 for $81, avg $13.50):

  • McCaffrey (4)
  • Carson (7)
  • Conner (7)
  • Fournette (9)
  • Breida (11)
  • Hill (11)
  • Banking on McCaffrey and Fournette early.  With the Bell news, hard to pass up on $4 Conner.  Should be most heavily rostered player.  I like Breida late and Hill for some GL carries.

[*]WRs (11 for $89, avg $8.09)

  • Godwin (5)
  • Meredith (6)
  • Nelson (7)
  • Gallup (8)
  • Ridley (8)
  • Cole (9)
  • Ross (9)
  • Treadwell (10)
  • Sanders (10)
  • Goodwin (11)
  • Dorsett (11)
  • Leaning heavily on WR2 (Goodwin/Sanders) and then went for slot guys (Nelson/Dorsett) and then guys who have high upside (Godwin/Gallup/Ridley/Cole).  Looking for two to pan out each week

[*]TEs (4 for $46, avg $11.50)

  •  Olsen (4)
  • Goeddert (9)
  • Rudolph (10)
  • Gesicki (11)
  • I think Rudolph will flex each week and I like the upside of Goeddert and Gesicki.

[*]PKs and Ds (3 PKs for $8 and 2 Ds for $8)

  • Hopkins, Rosas, Lambo
  • Bears, Bills
  • Went without the CLE defense...probably one of the few.

So 29 total players.... we'll see how it works out.

 
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QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/7 - $14
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - SF/11 - $12
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - KC/12 - $11
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Alex Collins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT/7 - $21
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Phillip Dorsett - NE/11 - $2
TE - Jordan Reed - WAS/4 - $16
TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14
TE - David Njoku - CLE/11 - $12
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Caleb Sturgis - LAC/8 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/8 - $4
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

 
Made millions or changes, Left Oakland combos, and chose Barkey as week 9 bye week RB

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10   4.86
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7         13.42
QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/10 - $5          10.61

Think I need 25 a game at this position and felt this combo was the best value to do that

RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/8 - $35           7.89
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28      11.52 
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26 28.40
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16     35.08
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8              41.12

Need a 30 point player most weeks and 2 20 points player out of this group and think it possible Love this group

WR - Will Fuller - HOU/10 - $13              9.06
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13   36.70
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9              13.28
WR - Paul Richardson - WAS/4 - $9         2.14
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6              21.05
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5                   24.43
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson - NE/11 -3    7.17

Speed, Speed, Need a 20 and 15 out of this group and hope to get it this group will make or break my chances

TE - Jimmy Graham - GB/7 - $20     8,82
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/5 - $11           3.59
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8       9.80

Watched one Rodgers to Graham in preseason and think Graham will lead league in TDs Need a 20 out of this group

PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3              7.55
PK - Sebastian Janikowski - SEA/7 - $3     7.53
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2            18.33

Need 10 a week all diff bye weeks

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5               26.26
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/4 - $3   3.22
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2        22.17

Need 10 a week all diff bye weeks

Thats 170 a week with one other flex

 
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Rivers/Mahomes/Dalton - Various combo of floors and ceilings

Kamara/McCaffrey/DFreeman/Burkhead - Multi-purpose types, and an insane gut feeling about Rex that will probably get me killed off early...

TyHill/Fuller/Lockett/Tyrell/Allison/JWashington - bombs away from Mahomes/Watson/Wilson/Rivers/Rodgers/Big Ben

Jimmy/Hooper/Gesicki/Goedert - my #1 TE, #1 sleeper TE, and a couple of rookie Red Zone darts

Butker/Lambo/Fairbairn value/value/value

Steelers/Bengals - value/value

Weirdest Team I've ever rostered, but I've never made it past Week 11, doing it in a common-sense way, so...Every one of my QB are outside Top 12 with upside, but for the most part, all my skill guys are from offenses featuring my Top-12 QB's.

We'll see how far it goes...good luck to all!

 
So look many versions this year, not sure I'm very happy in the end as I feel every year RB kills me but it's an all or nothing strategy. Good luck to everyone! 

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/8 - $13
QB - Derek Carr - OAK/7 - $9
QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/10 - $5
RB - Todd Gurley - LAR/12 - $37
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28
RB - Alex Collins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - Jeremy Hill - NE/11 - $3
WR - Amari Cooper - OAK/7 - $23
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/11 - $19
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/10 - $5
WR - Taywan Taylor - TEN/8 - $4
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/4 - $20
TE - Delanie Walker - TEN/8 - $17
TE - Nick Vannett - SEA/7 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
PK - Adam Vinatieri - IND/9 - $3
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/7 - $4
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB/5 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/9 - $2

Total value: 250

 
OK, time for my annual request:  PLEASE don't just list your roster.  After a few dozen of those long lists, my eyes cross and I stop reading.  If you want to generate discussion, instead give at least a little of your reasoning.  Here's mine:

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/12 - $11
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6
QB - Ryan Tannehill - MIA/11 - $6

Like I said earlier, the midlevel QBs are such a bargain this year, I can't see paying more.  According to the Draft Dominator projections, these 3 will be within 1 or 2 ppw of Rodgers (and actually outscore him some weeks) and collectively cost less than him.  Each is nearly 100% sure of being the starter all year barring injury, and each has the potential for a 4 TD week at any time.  Going cheap saves money for RB & TE.

RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/8 - $35
RB - David Johnson - ARI/9 - $34
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4

Big $$ on RB.  There's been a lot of discussion about whether the drop to .5 ppr for RBs devalues them, but a combo of Goff and Zeke still projects to more points than an equally priced combo of a higher priced QB and a midlevel RB.  Originally I had Cook instead of CMC, but the week 4 bye was much better than a week 10 bye.  When Freeman was named the starter in Denver, I actually switched to him and tried upgrading my #3 TE to Burton, but didn't like the way the roster looked as much as I like this one, partly because I couldn't convince myself of what Freeman's ultimate value would be.  If he turns into a reincarnation of Zeke's or Kamara's rookie seasons, I'll be sorry.  If not, maybe zigging instead of zagging was the right thing to do . If Barber can hold onto the starting position, he'll be cheap gold.  I've had Conner in there from my earliest teams, thinking he'll be good for at least an occasional TD.  With Bell playing his reporting game, he'll be worth even more early in the season and who knows what happens later.  Unfortunately, that news also resulted in him being on nearly everyone's roster.

WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Kenny Stills - MIA/11 - $11
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $6
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/9 - $5
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Taywan Taylor - TEN/8 - $4
WR - Jaron Brown - SEA/7 - $3

Quantity over quality at WR.  9 guys who are capable of a big week or two (or hopefully more).  Some potential risks: Week 11 with my two  "big guns" (hey, it's a relative term) on bye, but I have 7 other WRs to pick up the slack, plus all my RBs and TEs are active that week, so hopefully I won't need a flex from the WR spot.  Week 9 has 3 guys on bye, but with the top 2 and 4 others available, it should be survivable.  The week 9 and 11 guys just seemed to have so much value I couldn't pass them up, so I decided to run the risk...besides, with 6 teams on bye those 2 weeks, I'm guessing everyone will have some kind of bye issues, so maybe scores will be low all around.  The bargains were so obvious that the same guys keep showing up on a ton of rosters, but that's OK--I'm perfectly willing to have the same WR production as everyone else and depend on my RBs to be the difference makers.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25
TE - Jared Cook - OAK/7 - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $4

One big gun, two midlevels and the cheap flyer.  Went back and forth between Goedert and Vannett for the final spot. Vannett's bye week is better and he's $1 cheaper and I think both have similar floors and likely output.  But, Goedert has a way higher ceiling if Ertz gets hurt, so I went that way. Kelce/Goff sharing the week 12 bye makes me a little nervous, but both are covered pretty well in their positions and all my RBs and WRs are active that week, so I can get my flex scores there.

PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2

TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB/5 - $3
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

Meh, 3 cheap kickers and 3 cheap defenses with bye weeks spread around (other than the early week 5, I'll have at least 5 of the 6 active every week).  I almost went with a Bears/Cards combo at D, but I tried 2 defenses one year and it didn't work out well, so I stuck with 3. I tried to squeeze in Bears/Cards/Browns, but it would have meant cutting a WR, which I didn't want to do with  the bye week issues.

 
-OZ- said:
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - KC/12 - $11
QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/10 - $5
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $4

If not for the late bye, I think Mahomes would be on most rosters. Flacco has looked good so far but I'm not confident he starts the whole year, solution take Lamar and actually hope Flacco gets benched because the upside is higher in FF.

RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/9 - $29
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/8 - $21
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4
RB - Rod Smith - DAL/8 - $3
RB - Chase Edmonds - ARI/9 - $3

Studs and duds approach. Connor is going to be on every team. He was on mine for a while but then I also had Kelly in case one of the 4 top dogs got injured. 

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/7 - $37
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $6
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5

Totally agree with the point made earlier, there are a lot of receivers in the $5-8 range worth taking. Decided I'd take two receivers I'm confident in and 5 which will probably be widely owned.

TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/11 - $26
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
TE - Gerald Everett - LAR/12 - $5
TE - Adam Shaheen - CHI/5 - $2

Gronk smash. I know Shaheen is injured but he's $2 and hopefully he'll return.

PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Daniel Carlson - MIN/10 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3

Three dudes with jobs.

TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/8 - $4
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

I started with these two defenses and now I end with them. Every one will have the browns at $2
Click to expand...
Last minute over thought this and dropped from Antonio to Hopkins. Upgraded lambo to Butker, falcons to bears. Doubt it matters much. 

ETA: I was going to upgrade the k and d anyway so really my last move was to trade Antonio for Hopkins and Shaheen. 

What was your last move? Not the thousands of iterations but true last decision?

 
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