2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In particular I'm always interested on how successful teams handle the K/Def situation. How much they spend, how many they have, when the bye weeks were, etc.

someone here used to talk about those details. Trying to recall who that was. They’d done some in-depth analysis. 

IIRC it was better to have 4x $2 defenses than 2x $4 defenses. 

Its risky to have fewer than 3 at any position. I had a K get hurt last year. K’s get the yips & get replaced. So having 2 K’s is a bold move. 

 

[Dacomish]

someone here used to talk about those details. Trying to recall who that was. They’d done some in-depth analysis. 

IIRC it was better to have 4x $2 defenses than 2x $4 defenses. 

Its risky to have fewer than 3 at any position. I had a K get hurt last year. K’s get the yips & get replaced. So having 2 K’s is a bold move. 

Thewinz I think was his name, seemed to have some good insight. I don't know if previous contests with the new website are available to search now though......

 

[chocula]

Had to search for this thread. Sadly, I found my post from last year where I missed the cut buy 0.05. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Had to search for this thread. Sadly, I found my post from last year where I missed the cut buy 0.05. 

I feel like this should be a lifetime movie or something. 

 

[TS Garp]

I never understand why there aren't more players available . No Donovan Peoples-Jones, no Josh Palmer, no Anthony McFarland, etc.

 

[simey]

I never understand why there aren't more players available . No Donovan Peoples-Jones, no Josh Palmer, no Anthony McFarland, etc.

Joe explained why.

There are always quite a few players that don't make the list. That's just part of it. It keep us from listing a player super cheap and then they win a starting job and then 95% of the teams have that player. 

 

[TS Garp]

Joe explained why.

Thanks. Not sure I agree with the logic but it's good to have the explanation.

 

[KingPrawn]

If I had to give back $1 dollar for every revision I made to my roster I'd have to win it all just to break even.

 

[Deamon]

First rough shot.  Not remotely what final roster will look like but just played around a bit.

QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN/13 - $15
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/11 - $14
QB - Deshaun Watson - HOU/10 - $5
QB - Tyrod Taylor - HOU/10 - $4
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/9 - $26
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/8 - $22
RB - Damien Harris - NE/14 - $16
RB - A.J. Dillon - GB/13 - $11
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/11 - $22
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $18
WR - Brandon Aiyuk - SF/6 - $17
WR - Brandin Cooks - HOU/10 - $16
WR - Marvin Jones - JAX/7 - $11
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $16
TE - Robert Tonyan - GB/13 - $13
TE - Austin Hooper - CLE/13 - $8
PK - Tucker McCann - TEN/13 - $3
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/7 - $3
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/11 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/6 - $4
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/10 - $3

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

First rough shot.  Not remotely what final roster will look like but just played around a bit.

QB - Deshaun Watson - HOU/10 - $5
QB - Tyrod Taylor - HOU/10 - $4
WR - Brandin Cooks - HOU/10 - $16
 

What, no David Johnson?

 

[matuski]

First impression - Feels like it is easier to have a number of studs this year.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I'm stuck at roster size 20.  Hooray obsessive compulsive disorder!

 

[Dacomish]

Yup, its official, I need a support group, I literally had a DONE roster 4 days ago and have now re-done it 7 times since.....I don't know where I am, and why do I keep trying to find $1 to get a different 8th WR each day....I just don't know anymore, wait how the heck is it Tuesday? 

 

[Dacomish]

I'm stuck at roster size 20.  Hooray obsessive compulsive disorder!

You know you will get to about 22-23 before your done......

 

[-OZ-]

First impression - Feels like it is easier to have a number of studs this year.

It’s always easy to have a number.  

 

[-OZ-]

I’m just trying to decide if 4 Titans is too many with the week 13 bye

 

[KingPrawn]

Yup, its official, I need a support group, I literally had a DONE roster 4 days ago and have now re-done it 7 times since.....I don't know where I am, and why do I keep trying to find $1 to get a different 8th WR each day....I just don't know anymore, wait how the heck is it Tuesday? 

 7 times in 4 days? That's it?

Rookie

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

You know you will get to about 22-23 before your done......

Hi, my name is veebs and I'm a contestaholic.  It's been 22 hours since my last iteration.  After checking work emails, I have skimmed nfl.com, awesomo video channel, fantasypros, and nbcsports.com just in case any significant news dropped in the middle of the night (you can't be too sure!).

#september9willsaveme

 

[BoltBacker]

 7 times in 4 days? That's it?

Rookie

Agreed.

I think in the 2022 FBG Contest Joe should choose a charity and every time you click to submit a new lineup you donate ONE Venezuelin Bolivar to that charity.

We could cure cancer! Then the NFL wouldn't have to wear pink jock straps for an entire month of the season.

"FOOTBALLGUYS; solving the worlds problems one kicker swap at a time."

 

[Dacomish]

 7 times in 4 days? That's it?

Rookie

Hey I thought I was done....then the black eye joe came and got me and asked me if I wanted to go around the "Roster Olympics" village again.....what can I say......

 

[Contest Turk]

One person has submitted 397 entries so far. Next highest is 173. Thirteen people have submitted more than 50.

 

[apalmer]

One person has submitted 397 entries so far. Next highest is 173. Thirteen people have submitted more than 50.

Today?

 

[Dacomish]

One person has submitted 397 entries so far. Next highest is 173. Thirteen people have submitted more than 50.

Challenge accepted!

 

[apalmer]

I'm stuck at roster size 20.  Hooray obsessive compulsive disorder!

I'm heading that direction, but every time I get below 23, I start to get nervous about not having enough depth.

 

[Dacomish]

I'm heading that direction, but every time I get below 23, I start to get nervous about not having enough depth.

I'm at 23 and really don't want to go any lower, I could just do like someone else suggested and go studs/duds and swing for the fences with like 18-20 but the rational inner me keeps pulling me back off the edge of the cliff....

#isitlockdayyet?

EDIT: Ok I tried to trim down 2 more to squeeze in 1 more stud and you know what 21 is the new 23! Course dropping 2 player spots will most likely cost me around week 6 but whatever....Even 14 kicker guy normally makes it to like week 7 anyway! 

 

[apalmer]

I'm at 23 and really don't want to go any lower, I could just do like someone else suggested and go studs/duds and swing for the fences with like 18-20 but the rational inner me keeps pulling me back off the edge of the cliff....

#isitlockdayyet?

I have the same feeling, but then I look at my $4 third TE and ask "Even if both my studs are out, is this guy's score really going to save me or should I use that $4 to upgrade 3 other positions so that I get a couple more points every week?" 

 

[BoltBacker]

I'm heading that direction, but every time I get below 23, I start to get nervous about not having enough depth.

I feel like I go the other way.

When the contest first gets released and I have all these cheap "sleepers" that put me at a roster pretty close to 30. Then with each passing week there are enough news blurbs and injuries that my sleepers tend to dry up and I gradually work back toward a smaller roster with higher $/player.

Except last year, I definitely had a 30 player roster last season because I figured the pandemic was going to add some curveballs to the season.

 

[-OZ-]

at least I feel like my defenses are set. 3 for $10 

 

[apalmer]

at least I feel like my defenses are set. 3 for $10 

3 for $6 for me. When I plug the scoring into Draft Dominator, it says any of the $4 defenses score less than 1 ppw more than the $2 defenses. Even the highest ranked and most expensive defenses only score 1.5 ppw more than the $2 choices. 

 

[-OZ-]

3 for $6 for me. When I plug the scoring into Draft Dominator, it says any of the $4 defenses score less than 1 ppw more than the $2 defenses. Even the highest ranked and most expensive defenses only score 1.5 ppw more than the $2 choices. 

Oh sure make me think again

 

[Joe Bryant]

3 for $6 for me. When I plug the scoring into Draft Dominator, it says any of the $4 defenses score less than 1 ppw more than the $2 defenses. Even the highest ranked and most expensive defenses only score 1.5 ppw more than the $2 choices. 

I LOVE getting the other features from Footballguys pulled into this. 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I LOVE getting the other features from Footballguys pulled into this. 

I tried to reverse engineer the auction values using the vbd spreadsheet but got bogged down in the math.  I settled for the unique combination of league size, roster counts, rounds and flex adjustment factors that made the auction values close to the most and least valuable QB, RB, WR and TE.  But this was days ago, so its already been lost in the maelstrom of pre-season disinformation lol.

 

[apalmer]

I LOVE getting the other features from Footballguys pulled into this. 

DD isn't the ideal tool for bestball, because it doesn't factor in the value of multiple potential scorers ( e.g., after your top 4 WRs, adding any more doesn't increase predicted scoring), but I do like how it helps me see relative values betwewn positions and gives a good visual of bye week balance.

 

[chocula]

I’m just trying to decide if 4 Titans is too many with the week 13 bye

Sounds good to me. 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I find the lack of posting here....disturbing.

So, an open letter to Kyle Shanahan:

Dear Kyle,

I've enjoyed our time together and the tantalizing promise of Lance and Sermon, but your lack of transparency is impacting my plans, so I'm going to have to move on.  I simply can't finalize my RB and QB optimization without some clarification, which you're clearly not interested in providing.  Have a great season, fella.

- Veebs

ps I wish I could quit you.

 

[Dacomish]

ps I wish I could quit you.

 

[BoltBacker]

I find the lack of posting here....disturbing.

I wonder if this will mean there are fewer participants than normal?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I wonder if this will mean there are fewer participants than normal?

As this may be the last year with the existing payout structure, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing

 

[rustycolts]

Looks like a 29 man roster for me. QB- 29 RB-104, WR- 84,TE- 18, k-9, D-6. Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

[Mister CIA]

25 players rostered and I'm feeling pretty, pretty good.

QB:  One QB is a no-brainer and I'm sure he will be on 90% of the rosters; swung for the fences on QB#2.

RB: Selected two studs and two handcuff tandems (one high-end pair and the other from the bargain bin).

WR:  8 rostered.  Went bargain hunting and gambling that the ones I picked will rise to be clear-cut #1 WRs on their team.

TE:  3 rostered.  Tier 1 TEs were too expensive for my tastes.  Took the cheapest stud, a proven vet, and one cheap-o with a high ceiling.

K: $11 on three kickers

Def:  $12 on three defenses.

Rookies on roster: 4

Health and WR picks will make or break me.

 

[Mister CIA]

We've all been spared from having to juggle our rosters to fit Freiermuth into the fold.

 

[matuski]

We've all been spared from having to juggle our rosters to fit Freiermuth into the fold.

Always a couple players the contest doesnt have that I want.

Already 2 TEs I wish were there (Kroft the other).

 

[matuski]

25 players rostered and I'm feeling pretty, pretty good.

QB:  One QB is a no-brainer and I'm sure he will be on 90% of the rosters; swung for the fences on QB#2.

I think there are 3 QBs that are easily going to be the most rostered, all in that same $2 price range.

 

[Mister CIA]

I think there are 3 QBs that are easily going to be the most rostered, all in that same $2 price range.

I think I know who the other two are, but one is definitely my 1A.  

 

[matuski]

I think I know who the other two are, but one is definitely my 1A.  

Of course.  Another an up and comer, the other going into 10th year.

 

[HairySasquatch]

All Rookie Team....I might just roll with it!  TE will probably be the downfall.  The three best rookie IDP were on the defensive teams selected.  I don't hate this team....

QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/7 - $12
QB - Zach Wilson - NYJ/6 - $8
QB - Justin Fields - CHI/10 - $7
QB - Trey Lance - SF/6 - $7
RB - Najee Harris - PIT/7 - $25
RB - Travis Etienne - JAX/7 - $18
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/11 - $18
RB - Trey Sermon - SF/6 - $15
RB - Michael Carter - NYJ/6 - $14
RB - Chuba Hubbard - CAR/13 - $5
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/14 - $3
WR - JaMarr Chase - CIN/10 - $19
WR - DeVonta Smith - PHI/14 - $14
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/14 - $11
WR - Elijah Moore - NYJ/6 - $9
WR - Rondale Moore - ARI/12 - $9
WR - Rashod Bateman - BAL/8 - $8
WR - Terrace Marshall - CAR/13 - $8
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/9 - $5
WR - Kadarius Toney - NYG/10 - $3
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/6 - $17
PK - Tucker McCann - TEN/13 - $3
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $2
TD - Washington Football Team - WAS/9 - $5
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/12 - $3
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/7 - $2

 

[BoltBacker]

All Rookie Team....I might just roll with it!  TE will probably be the downfall.  The three best rookie IDP were on the defensive teams selected.  I don't hate this team....

It's really surprising to me that Freiermuth(PIT) isn't in the contest this year. I mean, what are the odds that Ebron gets injured or disappoints one year in his career?!? Normally I'm not a big fan of rookie TE's but Freiermuth has a much higher ceiling than the average rookie TE imo.

If FBG made a change to the contest they could add a bunch of $1 players at RB/WR/TE that would differentiate the contestants teams even more. Someone else pointed out Peoples-Jones isn't available in the contest and the latest news is he's a WR#3 in CLE.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's really surprising to me that Freiermuth(PIT) isn't in the contest this year. I mean, what are the odds that Ebron gets injured or disappoints one year in his career?!? Normally I'm not a big fan of rookie TE's but Freiermuth has a much higher ceiling than the average rookie TE imo.

If FBG made a change to the contest they could add a bunch of $1 players at RB/WR/TE that would differentiate the contestants teams even more. Someone else pointed out Peoples-Jones isn't available in the contest and the latest news is he's a WR#3 in CLE.

Thanks. There are always lots of players not listed. It makes the contest much more difficult this way. The trouble is releasing salaries so early in the summer could set up a situation where a player is on 95% of the teams and that's no fun.

The alternative is listing all the fringe players with much higher salaries as if they'd won the starting job but that looks dumb too. 

The current method has worked for a long time and is the most challenging way. We may look to make tweaks in future years but this one has been effective for a while. 

 

[apalmer]

I think there are 3 QBs that are easily going to be the most rostered, all in that same $2 price range.

I knew I should have kicked in for the super-premium version--I'd love to have some $2 QB options.

 

[KingPrawn]

I knew I should have kicked in for the super-premium version--I'd love to have some $2 QB options.

I paid for the super-premium-version as I consistently found myself coming up $12 short. I'm still coming up about $2 short on my ideal lineup so I'm tempted to pay up for the super-duper-premium-version