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2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (5 Viewers)

Finished #12 this week :pickle: , which is great and all... but Gus is gonna catch up to me unless Michel/Rhamondre show up.

 
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It seems like the contest will get easier as we go along. 25% cut rosters will be less each week. I wonder if having later bye weeks are now better?

 
MikesVikes said:
It seems like the contest will get easier as we go along. 25% cut rosters will be less each week. I wonder if having later bye weeks are now better?
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I don't think it's any easier to be the top 750 out of 1000 than to be the top 75 out of 100.  I still think the contest generally gets harder as you go along because those rosters were all good enough to survive multiple weeks... early on you have some ill-constructed rosters eating up some of the 25% eliminated.  Towards the end (weeks 12-14) if you have a bye week balanced roster, you may have things get a bit easier as it's possible those who loaded up on late bye weeks were more likely to survive the earlier weeks, but now will be playing with short benches.

 
Re: injuries (Gus in particular, since he affected so many teams)... while I do enjoy the "set-it-and-forget-it" aspect of the contest, I do feel like I'd enjoy a minor variation like:

1) You can swap a max of X players per season (recommend maybe 3). Have to be strategic about when to make your swaps... if you burn them early, you're SOL if injuries strike later on, etc. This feels like my preferred option as I don't see as much opportunity to exploit as I do with the other two below, and stays the truest to the "set it and forget it" format, but just allows you some small capacity to adapt to injuries along the way.

2) You can swap max 1 player per week... so sometimes you swap down to a cheaper player (to free up cash), sometimes to acquire a stud (when you have cash available). Downside: Over time, the rosters all start to converge around similar cheapies who have become the "must haves".

3) You can do one full roster reset per season... strategy is when to use it. Downside: Might lead too much towards a strategy of loading up more on week 12-14 bye week guys, knowing you can swap out of them before their bye week hits.  I also just philosophically don't like the idea of such a wholesale change, but just brainstorming options.

For both options 1) and 2) it might be a strategy to start season with at least a little bit of money in the bank so that after week 1 or 2 you can swap whichever cheapie doesn't look like they'll hit for whichever stud seems to be well on-track... though you are obviously taking on some additional "early elimination risk" by doing so.

 
Survived at 159, mainly due to my 4 points from 4 defenses and 15 total from RBs. Let's hope that turns around.

I lost Jeudy and Mostert in every single league and the contest. Ugh.

 
Stray Doug said:
Re: injuries (Gus in particular, since he affected so many teams)... while I do enjoy the "set-it-and-forget-it" aspect of the contest, I do feel like I'd enjoy a minor variation like:

1) You can swap a max of X players per season (recommend maybe 3). Have to be strategic about when to make your swaps... if you burn them early, you're SOL if injuries strike later on, etc. This feels like my preferred option as I don't see as much opportunity to exploit as I do with the other two below, and stays the truest to the "set it and forget it" format, but just allows you some small capacity to adapt to injuries along the way.

2) You can swap max 1 player per week... so sometimes you swap down to a cheaper player (to free up cash), sometimes to acquire a stud (when you have cash available). Downside: Over time, the rosters all start to converge around similar cheapies who have become the "must haves".

3) You can do one full roster reset per season... strategy is when to use it. Downside: Might lead too much towards a strategy of loading up more on week 12-14 bye week guys, knowing you can swap out of them before their bye week hits.  I also just philosophically don't like the idea of such a wholesale change, but just brainstorming options.

For both options 1) and 2) it might be a strategy to start season with at least a little bit of money in the bank so that after week 1 or 2 you can swap whichever cheapie doesn't look like they'll hit for whichever stud seems to be well on-track... though you are obviously taking on some additional "early elimination risk" by doing so.
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No offense, but this sounds a little bit like the dude in the league I commission who drafted Michael Thomas, then spent 5 days after the draft trying to rally the league to do an unprecedented post-draft vote for a rules change to add an IR spot (he expected that Thomas would be IR'd). 

The whole concept of a survivor contest is that you pick your payers once, based on a budget & that's it. That's your team. Survive or don't. 

Your concept sounds like it would make for a fun contest, but it wouldn't be remotely like the contest we are participating in here. 

 
Instinctive said:
I lost Jeudy and Mostert in every single league and the contest. Ugh.
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The good news is that if you make it to week 8, there's a good chance Mostert will be back? 

And maybe another couple weeks and Jeudy could return as well. Maybe your team will be so dominant that getting those two back late will be like getting 2 free players to bolster your roster. 

:)  

Signed, 

-Glass Half Full

 
I made it easily to next week with 185, but I am on borrowed time.

Lost Gus, James Robinson looks like a complete bust.  PIcked wrong Rams WR with Woods (looks like Stafford's fav target will be Kupp), and I subbed out Brady at the last moment for Rodgers.  Oops.

 
Most of my squad underperformed, except for Mr. Brady. I survived by 3.2 points. All of Bryan Edwards' points counted for me, in overtime his final catch for 32 yards put me on the right side of the line.

 
One thing I like about this contest is getting a share of Waller.  The guy is basically unobtainable in premium-TE dynasty.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
FWIW The woulda coulda shoulda I posted above is exactly 5 points ahead of my real entry (but would have Edwards start counting after 4.70)

Found (most of) the very first Rooster I had (I think I can work out the defenses and kickers - I'm sure I had McPherson and the Bengals for example).  Even with deadwood Cody Parkey the original rooster would have managed a 175.20.  So clearly I should have given the contest 0 though :bag:

-QG
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Woula coulda shoulda entry survives of course :kicksrock:

-QG

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
No offense, but this sounds a little bit like the dude in the league I commission who drafted Michael Thomas, then spent 5 days after the draft trying to rally the league to do an unprecedented post-draft vote for a rules change to add an IR spot (he expected that Thomas would be IR'd). 

The whole concept of a survivor contest is that you pick your payers once, based on a budget & that's it. That's your team. Survive or don't. 

Your concept sounds like it would make for a fun contest, but it wouldn't be remotely like the contest we are participating in here. 
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Nah. The "concept" of a survivor contest is simply that teams are eliminated each week. That's it. Not proposing changing that.

Separate from that are questions of do you pick your players once and you're done, or do you have some ability to change roster, and if so, how much change is permitted and via what method. For example, in "Best Ball Plus" format you do waivers all season long just like a regular league. Conversely, in Terminator leagues you have to remove a player from your roster each week. But those are still Best Ball contests (even though most other Best Ball contests are set it and forget it), just like a Survivor contest can likewise allow (or not allow) for roster movement. Entirely distinct concept.

And separate from that are how players are chosen/allocated in the first place... e.g., draft, auction, free-for-all, or in this contest's case is salary-cap-based. Not all survivor contests are salary-cap-based, but I'm proposing keeping that the same as it is.

Scoring and lineup construction/constraints are examples of other factors that aren't tied to format either, and I like the ones at play in this contest and not proposing any changes there either.

What I'm saying I'd like to see is (a) a survivor contest, (b) that is salary-cap-based, with (c) a very limited capacity to make some roster moves.  So basically this exact same contest, but with one minor tweak on (c)... say you get 3 moves per season, that means you have to still have to set-and-forget 80-90% of your roster exactly as you do today. To say it wouldn't be "remotely" like the contest we are participating in here is incorrect, it'd be 90% the same rules about roster construction, scoring, eliminations, etc.  Being able to swap one player on average every ~5 weeks of gameplay isn't exactly a radical change.

 
fightingillini said:
PIcked wrong Rams WR with Woods (looks like Stafford's fav target will be Kupp), and I subbed out Brady at the last moment for Rodgers.  Oops.
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A bit premature to say that - IMO they will both have big weeks, each with a solid floor, and each with some BOOM weeks. This was Kupp's week. 

I also have Woods & I'm not worried about it yet. 

 
Stray Doug said:
To say it wouldn't be "remotely" like the contest we are participating in here is incorrect, it'd be 90% the same rules about roster construction, scoring, eliminations, etc.  Being able to swap one player on average every ~5 weeks of gameplay isn't exactly a radical change.
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The contest we're in never allows for any roster changes. 

To say that your suggestion(s) of allowing roster changes at various points of a contest wouldn't be a radical departure from from a contest that has no roster changes once rosters lock seems very incorrect.

Not really worth arguing over though. Best of luck in the contest. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The contest we're in never allows for any roster changes. 

To say that your suggestion(s) of allowing roster changes at various points of a contest wouldn't be a radical departure from from a contest that has no roster changes once rosters lock seems very incorrect.

Not really worth arguing over though. Best of luck in the contest. 
Click to expand...


Agree to disagree, best of luck to you as well.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The good news is that if you make it to week 8, there's a good chance


Mostert


will be back? 

And maybe another couple weeks and


Jeudy


could return as well. Maybe your team will be so dominant that getting those two back late will be like getting 2 free players to bolster your roster. 

:)  

Signed, 

-Glass Half Full
Click to expand...
Mostert done for the year....Signed,  the guy who drank your half glass of beer.  😉

 
Surprised to see I’m on to week 2 who knew carolson would save me !!! Desperately need sermon to be active going forward 

 
Scored 158.3, just enough to beat the cutline at 151.2

I was surprised at how close it was for MANY of us.

1668 of us survivors were within 10 points of being eliminated.  That's a full 17% of the starting entries, or 23% of the survivors.

 
Rooster did okay and ended up at 191.70.  Strong showing by the WR core and Hockenson should be great with Goff all year.  Now my RB on the other hand... Not pretty.  Really need Robinson to step up since I was banking on RB2 coming from Robinson/Edwards.

Swing for the fence picks, really didn't work.

Sony Michel             $5      0.20                       
Chuba Hubbard           $5      1.40                 
Rhamondre Stevenson     $3      1.60 

Amon-Ra St. Brown       $5      4.30                                              
Marquez Callaway        $5      2.40                                                                    
Kadarius Toney          $3      1.80

Dan Arnold              $4      3.60               
Jack Doyle              $4      6.60

Still have hope some of these guys may start producing or I'll be exiting Week 7, which is where most of my core players are out.  Going to be interesting.

 
Survived with 196. I tried something new this year: I spent less on top stud RBs because the position seems so volatile with injuries. Not saying it'll work out every week, but my mid range WR corps did most of the heavy lifting this week:

RB - Nick Chubb - 26
RB - James Robinson - 16
RB - Damien Harris - 16
RB - Gus Edwards - 11
RB - Sony Michel - 5
RB - Carlos Hyde - 4
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - 3

WR - Calvin Ridley - 27
WR - Cooper Kupp - 20
WR - Jaylen Waddle - 11
WR - Marvin Jones - 11
WR - Antonio Brown - 10
WR - Bryan Edwards - 4

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Can't believe SF is signing KerryonMyWaywardSon Johnson to the practice squad.
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That song reminds me of my son. He played QB and at halftime he went over to play in the band. They played that song every week. Probably the only QB that was playing a trombone instead of in halftime meetings.

 
It is with great sadness and embarassment that I announce that have been eliminated in week 1.  While I have never made the playoff rounds of this contest in many years of playing, I took pride in my middle of the pack credentials and enjoyed checking on my players performance and watching the cut line.  I have never been a vocal member of this contest thread, but I have always watched the discussions and followed along.  I see you, contest guys.  I see you.  

I apologize for the delay in this announcement but I also lost my 2 survival contests in week one and was depressed after looking forward to the start of the season so much.  

 
Another 1,831 bite the dust this week. Hopefully I can squeeze out another 170ish score and prolong my stay another week.

 
BassNBrew said:
I just want to give a salute (see my avatar) to all the guys complaining last year about no early cuts and suggesting x% from the get go.  About 50% of us will be gone after this week.
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I'm kinda on the other side of this. Yes there was some complaining (I wasn't part of that) where there was no cut line because there was a much less amount of subscribers who entered and essentially there were a few easy early bye weeks for most. 

For this year it was a more fair across the board knowing that there was a cut line regardless of entries the first few weeks. Its obvious the bottom hanging fruit the first week were many who didn't read the rules and I like that - nothing worse than a team getting lucky because they took 9 QB's (or more) (or in other years 15 Kicker guy) and make it to like week 5 on luck where teams that were well built get dropped early. 

I think the "Value Players" like many have taken will be the downfall and we are seeing that with Gus (injury) and Robinson (Meyer just doesn't seem to like him) and a few others who were high owned and flatlined week 1. 

IMO Its gonna be those teams that have more of the uniqueness to their rosters who will do well when the dust settles, yes it was good to take some risk, but you needed to balance some of it out with the 25% cut this year.

We are un unchartered territory here and I like it! 

 
kajaet said:
It is with great sadness and embarassment that I announce that have been eliminated in week 1.  While I have never made the playoff rounds of this contest in many years of playing, I took pride in my middle of the pack credentials and enjoyed checking on my players performance and watching the cut line.  I have never been a vocal member of this contest thread, but I have always watched the discussions and followed along.  I see you, contest guys.  I see you.  

I apologize for the delay in this announcement but I also lost my 2 survival contests in week one and was depressed after looking forward to the start of the season so much.  
Click to expand...


What pick or picks sunk you in week 1? I advanced mainly due to Gronk. Otherwise it would have been a super close call. 

 
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Dacomish said:
I'm kinda on the other side of this. Yes there was some complaining (I wasn't part of that) where there was no cut line because there was a much less amount of subscribers who entered and essentially there were a few easy early bye weeks for most. 

For this year it was a more fair across the board knowing that there was a cut line regardless of entries the first few weeks. Its obvious the bottom hanging fruit the first week were many who didn't read the rules and I like that - nothing worse than a team getting lucky because they took 9 QB's (or more) (or in other years 15 Kicker guy) and make it to like week 5 on luck where teams that were well built get dropped early. 

I think the "Value Players" like many have taken will be the downfall and we are seeing that with Gus (injury) and Robinson (Meyer just doesn't seem to like him) and a few others who were high owned and flatlined week 1. 

IMO Its gonna be those teams that have more of the uniqueness to their rosters who will do well when the dust settles, yes it was good to take some risk, but you needed to balance some of it out with the 25% cut this year.

We are un unchartered territory here and I like it! 
Click to expand...


I dumped Aiuyk for Gronk and another player, otherwise I probably would have not made the cut. Like many others, I also wish I would have not spent $11 on Gus. 

 
rustycolts said:
After further evaluation 30 players probably not the way to go.
Click to expand...


it depends on what your goal is. if you are selling out to maximize your chances of winning, an 18-man stud-filled roster with stacking is ideal. if your goal is to give you the best chance to survive and advance every week the 30-man roster is likely best. the 30-man roster is more likely to make the playoffs than the 18-man but a lot less likely to win when it gets there.

 
sooted72 said:
it depends on what your goal is. if you are selling out to maximize your chances of winning, an 18-man stud-filled roster with stacking is ideal. if your goal is to give you the best chance to survive and advance every week the 30-man roster is likely best. the 30-man roster is more likely to make the playoffs than the 18-man but a lot less likely to win when it gets there.
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So we have numbers on past winning rosters?  I would think the endurance is part of it and would guess many 18 player teams couldn’t survive the gauntlet.  
 

To my mind, the larger roster gives you more lottery tickets and you want to get to the dance and see what Happens

 
ZWK said:
In my (pre-wk1) opinion, these are some of the best options at QB/RB/TE/WR that are on less than 5% of rosters:

3.5% QB D Prescott DAL    $22
1.6% QB J Goff DET    $8
4.7% QB T Taylor HOU    $4
2.0% RB S Barkley NYG    $28
5.0% RB C Hyde JAX    $4
3.9% TE H Henry NE    $9
4.7% TE D Parham LAC    $3
1.9% WR A Cooper DAL    $22
3.3% WR D Samuel SF    $13
3.8% WR M Thomas NO    $13
3.4% WR M Williams LAC    $12
2.3% WR C Beasley BUF    $10
0.7% WR R Bateman BAL    $8
5.0% WR E Sanders BUF    $7
4.4% WR N Agholor NE    $6
4.0% WR S Watkins BAL    $5
4.7% WR A St. Brown DET    $5
1.1% WR Q Cephus DET    $4
2.8% WR N Collins HOU    $4
3.7% WR K Hamler DEN    $4
3.8% WR J Crowder NYJ    $4
1.4% WR D Eskridge SEA    $3
2.0% WR K Toney NYG    $3
2.2% WR D Robinson KC    $3
4.8% WR D Jackson LAR    $3

I've bolded the ones on my roster.
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meh. i pretty much agree with all those players being low owned. the problem with the wrs youve listed is that there are just tons of better options in the price ranges. edwards at $4, mvs $3, etc. watkins would be the cheap wr i like the most in the guys youve listed. started grabbing him the last few weeks in best ball once i heard he was fully healthy. i could see him being pretty relevant this year.

 
Smack Tripper said:
So we have numbers on past winning rosters?  I would think the endurance is part of it and would guess many 18 player teams couldn’t survive the gauntlet.  
 

To my mind, the larger roster gives you more lottery tickets and you want to get to the dance and see what Happens
Click to expand...
yeah this has been discussed both earlier in this thread an in all the threads in prior years. ill let others who have all that info post it instead of trying to remember with my old senile ###. i mean butt (sorry, joe).

youre right on both counts. survivorship bias basically dictates that the team that wins just chose their studs correctly, for lack of a better way to put it.

what i remember when glancing through the playoff rosters from previous years was this phenomenon: so let's say you put together a 30-man roster with like 11 cheap WRs. 3 or 4 of them hit and carry you into the playoffs. you get to the playoffs and youre up against teams that have those guys plus like ceedee lamb (stacked with dak) or keenan allen (stacked with herbert) and you basically cant win.

again, ill leave it to others who have exact data on this chime in.

 
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