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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (2 Viewers)

rzrback77

IBL Representative
New Orleans:
Olave = 103 -10.5
Taysom Hill = 44 - 14.5
Kamara = 52 - 4.7

Lutz = 30 - 11
Landry = 10 - 3.4
Dalton = 0 (in case you were wondering)

Tampa Bay:
Rachaad White = 47 -15.9
Godwin = 24 - 14.3

Fournette = 16 (questionable) - 11.1
Brate = 18 - 0
Succop = 10 - 5
Brady = 7 - 23.9 QB might be off a bit
Evans = 7 - 9.9
 

Dacomish

Footballguy
No change from last week:

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3661 3666
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2563 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1795 1804
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1257 1263
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 880 885
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 616 620
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 370 NEW 372
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 NEW 224 (this means the top highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
We lost 2 more of Joe's $100 teams right before the end - @apalmer and @scoobus So sorry, folks :crying:

Heading into the last week before the finals, let's all cheer on:
@ZWK - Remind me to ask for your list of riskiest kickers next year. Thank the gods for Zuerlein.
@menobrown - Sole survivor of the Subscriber Contest strategy article. I haven't forgotten about you.
@bamabuddha - Sending good vibes that Njoku will be healthy as your only active TE.
@scottybo - Define a good week? How about using DK Metcalf's 26.7 points as a flex score?
@rzrback77 - Must've been quite an anxious moment to log on and see you WERE the cut line, eh?
 

apalmer

Footballguy
We lost 2 more of Joe's $100 teams right before the end - @apalmer and @scoobus So sorry, folks :crying:

Heading into the last week before the finals, let's all cheer on:
@ZWK - Remind me to ask for your list of riskiest kickers next year. Thank the gods for Zuerlein.
@menobrown - Sole survivor of the Subscriber Contest strategy article. I haven't forgotten about you.
@bamabuddha - Sending good vibes that Njoku will be healthy as your only active TE.
@scottybo - Define a good week? How about using DK Metcalf's 26.7 points as a flex score?
@rzrback77 - Must've been quite an anxious moment to log on and see you WERE the cut line, eh?
Yeah, miserable week all around: 4.8 pts. from Henry, 8 from Chubb. JuJu scores 6.5 in the first quarter, then isn't heard from again, but still outscores Sutton, Zay Jones and Pickens combined. Meanwhile, neither Hockenson or Schultz can get to double figures. Just when I had made it through all my byes and was feeling good about my chances, I get the perfect storm of terrible scores clunker.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
We lost 2 more of Joe's $100 teams right before the end - @apalmer and @scoobus So sorry, folks :crying:

Heading into the last week before the finals, let's all cheer on:
@ZWK - Remind me to ask for your list of riskiest kickers next year. Thank the gods for Zuerlein.
@menobrown - Sole survivor of the Subscriber Contest strategy article. I haven't forgotten about you.
@bamabuddha - Sending good vibes that Njoku will be healthy as your only active TE.
@scottybo - Define a good week? How about using DK Metcalf's 26.7 points as a flex score?
@rzrback77 - Must've been quite an anxious moment to log on and see you WERE the cut line, eh?
Yeah, miserable week all around: 4.8 pts. from Henry, 8 from Chubb. JuJu scores 6.5 in the first quarter, then isn't heard from again, but still outscores Sutton, Zay Jones and Pickens combined. Meanwhile, neither Hockenson or Schultz can get to double figures. Just when I had made it through all my byes and was feeling good about my chances, I get the perfect storm of terrible scores clunker.

This week really sucked. I really thought you'd easily make the playoffs and likely make a good run for some prizes.

Hopefully in spite of so many of us being bounced, we can still keep interest in the forum alive through the Subscriber Playoff Contest. I know it's a small consolation, and sort of a let down after putting so much into the larger season. But it's another challenge, none the less. And I hope everyone who has participated here will also take a crack at it. It will be fun strategizing how to assemble a team for such a different type of challenge. I've never done well at it, and I'm all ears if any of you guys have advice or suggestions.

In the meantime, I'll keep posting "phantom standings" for these last two weeks, and possibly into the finals, as long as @Army Eye keeps providing access to all scoring data for eliminated teams with the awesome app he shared with all of us. A big "thank you" to him for that, as I'm sure many others here will agree!
 

apalmer

Footballguy
In the meantime, I'll keep posting "phantom standings" for these last two weeks, and possibly into the finals, as long as @Army Eye keeps providing access to all scoring data for eliminated teams with the awesome app he shared with all of us.

Oh, I'm in it for the duration! And we're now live with Week 13 stats. https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/ is the link for anyone to use!
Looking at this only makes it sting even more: Allen, Henry, Chubb, and Sutton all posted their low scores of the year. Zay's was the lowest except the week he was hurt, Stevenson's was his lowest since Week 2, Hockenson's was his lowest since the trade and Pickens's was his second lowest of the year. Other than that, everyone as expected.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Are you bummed because your team's been eliminated early ? :wall:

.......... Are you wondering how you'd be doing if your team were still alive ? :ponder:

....................Well, wonder no more, because I've got you covered..... :pickle:

Presenting the Week 13
- 👻 Phantom Standings 👻 (Eliminated teams that would have made the cut in week 13)



177.00 - Chet
173.50 - Sigmund Bloom (FBG Staff)
171.80 - Dacomish
168.80 - Ackme
168.75 - The Stray Doug
166.70 - Puppies (me)
165.05 - Ruffroddys
161.80 - Stubby
159.45 - Fair Warning
156.95 - Baededel Moon
155.00 - Saint
152.90 - BroncosFan07
150.65 - davidwb
147.55 - Mister CIA Fan
146.55 - Maurile Tremblay (FBG Staff)
145.30 - Nittany Lion

145.10 ---- Week 13 Cut Line ------


Coming soon…… The Phantom Playoffs !

I will track our teams through upcoming playoffs (weeks 15-17) to show how we all would have fared had we survived and made the actual playoffs.
Someone in this group will have bragging rights (but no prizes) :-)


We love this contest so much that we keep playing EVEN after we're eliminated !!

@chet , @Dacomish ,@Ackme ,@Stray Doug , @Ruffrodys05 @stubby , @FairWarning , @Baeddel Moon ,
@Saint , @BroncosFan07 , @davidwb , @Mister CIA , @nittanylion
 
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wollac

Footballguy
In the meantime, I'll keep posting "phantom standings" for these last two weeks, and possibly into the finals, as long as @Army Eye keeps providing access to all scoring data for eliminated teams with the awesome app he shared with all of us.

Oh, I'm in it for the duration! And we're now live with Week 13 stats. https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/ is the link for anyone to use!
Looking at this only makes it sting even more: Allen, Henry, Chubb, and Sutton all posted their low scores of the year. Zay's was the lowest except the week he was hurt, Stevenson's was his lowest since Week 2, Hockenson's was his lowest since the trade and Pickens's was his second lowest of the year. Other than that, everyone as expected.

I'm bummed you got knocked this week. You and I have very similar teams. I barely made it.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Contest fun fact about kickers vs defenses
- Defenses can suck, but never miss games. Entering week 14, there have been 390 D scores for a total of 2199 points, making the average weekly score 5.6 points
- Of the 32 offered kickers, there have been 69 missed games, for a total of 321 actual scores. Total points are 2785.2, making the average weekly score 8.7 points
 

chet

Footballguy
Are you bummed because your team's been eliminated early ? :wall:

.......... Are you wondering how you'd be doing if your team were still alive ? :ponder:

....................Well, wonder no more, because I've got you covered..... :pickle:

Presenting the Week 13
- 👻 Phantom Standings 👻 (Eliminated teams that would have made the cut in week 13)



177.00 - Chet
173.50 - Sigmund Bloom (FBG Staff)
171.80 - Dacomish
168.80 - Ackme
168.75 - The Stray Doug
166.70 - Puppies (me)
165.05 - Ruffroddys
161.80 - Stubby
159.45 - Fair Warning
156.95 - Baededel Moon
155.00 - Saint
152.90 - BroncosFan07
150.65 - davidwb
147.55 - Mister CIA Fan
146.55 - Maurile Tremblay (FBG Staff)
145.30 - Nittany Lion

145.10 ---- Week 13 Cut Line ------


Coming soon…… The Phantom Playoffs !

I will track our teams through upcoming playoffs (weeks 15-17) to show how we all would have fared had we survived and made the actual playoffs. Someone in this group will have bragging rights (but no prizes) :-)

We love this contest so much that we keep playing EVEN after we're eliminated !!

@chet , @Dacomish ,@Ackme ,@Stray Doug , @Ruffrodys05 @stubby , @FairWarning , @Baeddel Moon ,
@Saint , @BroncosFan07 , @davidwb , @Mister CIA , @nittanylion

Thanks for doing this. I was wondering how to see my phantom score after being eliminated last week.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Baker Mayfield was claimed off waivers today by the Los Angeles Rams.

There are 23 happy (live) team owners that have Mayfield on their roster.

Mayfield is projected to possibly be the starter beginning in week 15. Nothing like suddenly getting an extra QB on your roster, just in time for the playoffs!
 

bamabuddha

Footballguy
We lost 2 more of Joe's $100 teams right before the end - @apalmer and @scoobus So sorry, folks :crying:

Heading into the last week before the finals, let's all cheer on:
@ZWK - Remind me to ask for your list of riskiest kickers next year. Thank the gods for Zuerlein.
@menobrown - Sole survivor of the Subscriber Contest strategy article. I haven't forgotten about you.
@bamabuddha - Sending good vibes that Njoku will be healthy as your only active TE.
@scottybo - Define a good week? How about using DK Metcalf's 26.7 points as a flex score?
@rzrback77 - Must've been quite an anxious moment to log on and see you WERE the cut line, eh?
Thanks! you are paying attention tomthe rosters! 😁😜. TE was good all year but last 4 weeks have been iffy due to injuries…but I definitely need Njoku this week for any hope of getting through the week…..or a stellar week from Hurts, Barkley, Swift will be ok too…
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Week 13 Statistical Trivia ... and other fun facts

28 = Roster size with the highest year-to-date survival rate @ 7.32%
18 = Roster size with the lowest year-to-date survival rate @ 2.00% (lowest for 10 weeks in a row)

Overall contest survival rate through 13 weeks = 3.04%

18 = Roster size with the most remaining live teams @ 97 teams (started with 4,855)
29 = Roster size with the fewest remaining live teams @ 4 teams (started with 80)

130.95 = Average cut line, Season to date
117.00 = Lowest weekly cut line (week 11)
145.10 = Hightest weekly cut line (week 13)

6.24 = Average cut line increase for a single Monday night game
2.40 = Lowest cut line increase for a single Monday night game (week 13)
8.45 = Highest cut line increase for a single Monday night game (week 7)

Only 372 of the 12,254 teams that entered the Subscriber Contest remain alive. If your team is one of them,
your statistical odds of making the playoffs are 33 times better today than they were in week 1.

Crushing the cut line in week 13:
Scottybo by 53.80 points
Army Eye by 47.30 points

Nail-Biter of the week:
rzrback77, who made the cut by ZERO points! 😎

Missed the cut line by smallest amount in week 13:
da_budman by 1.65 points :wall:


Average Weekly Scores - through week 13
The Survivors: Good luck in week 14 - (The last hurdle before the playoffs)

174.13 Scottybo
170.66 Wollac
168.05 Army Eye
162.98 Menobrown
161.57 Bamabuddha
160.40 Bill Dauterive
158.63 ZWK
155.15 rzrback77 ("mister cut-line" 😎)


Failed to Advance: :cry: Sad to see you go...

171.63 aPalmer
165.82 Scoobus
164.49 Open Source Beer
164.43 OleMissRebel
161.33 Sooted72
157.37 da_budman
157.31 NotSmart
151.39 ChurchOfIggyPop
 

Stray Doug

Footballguy
The Monday Night cutline increase numbers will be good to refer back to next year (6.25 average, with a range of 2.5 - 8.5) when we go through this again.

Thanks for tracking the phantom entries... are these only teams that missed the cutline once, or does the number of times a team missed not factor in?

I'd be at 171.58 on the weekly, just a fraction behind aPalmer... but unsure of my playoff prospects. Kittle hasn't really been putting up numbers, I've got dead money on A Rob and Renfrow, and even some of guys who have been performing adequately and scoring contest points for me (e.g. D Cook) certainly haven't been putting up contest-winning numbers.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
The Monday Night cutline increase numbers will be good to refer back to next year (6.25 average, with a range of 2.5 - 8.5) when we go through this again.

Thanks for tracking the phantom entries... are these only teams that missed the cutline once, or does the number of times a team missed not factor in?

I'd be at 171.58 on the weekly, just a fraction behind aPalmer... but unsure of my playoff prospects. Kittle hasn't really been putting up numbers, I've got dead money on A Rob and Renfrow, and even some of guys who have been performing adequately and scoring contest points for me (e.g. D Cook) certainly haven't been putting up contest-winning numbers.
Several of the teams that I’m tracking for the phantom standings would have missed the cut more than once.

On the average Monday night cut line movement, there have been 2 or 3 weeks that did not factor in. Week 2 had two games on Monday night, and at least one other week, there was not a cut line posted after the conclusion of the 8pm Sunday game, so it was not possible to calculate.

When we reach week 15, I’m planning to track all these teams for the 3-week playoff to see if any of us would have won a prize, had we still be in the running. I’ll post cumulative standings each week.

My intent is to keep interest in the Subscriber Contest going, and hopefully help to increase participation going forward. It’s been a lot of fun discussing the contest with everyone here in the forum, and the contest has actually been more fun for me this year because of that. I’ve played in the contest for 12 years but never knew about this forum until this year. It’s been fun getting to know a few people here, who share a common interest. And I feel that it actually it helped offset my personal disappointment of being bounced again and not making the playoffs.

There was some talk this year about possibly changing this contest, or even eliminating it. Hopefully that never happens - it’s the only reason I re-subscribe to FootballGuys every year. I don’t know of any other contest like it.
 
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Army Eye

Footballguy
Playing around with the analyzer, the highest survival rate for a player I found was Tyreek Hill with 7.62%. Hurts and Sun God are also above 7%, Davante not quite. Jeff Wilson, I believe, leads RBs with 6.33%. Kelce is at 5.70% (I'm pretty sure he was THE highest overall player before last week)

Lowest I could find, out of players with a reasonable amount of owners, was J.K. Dobbins with 0.20% which is literally ONE surviving team that has him. (and Dobbins is actually coming back, watch out!)

Out of players that have actually been healthy, Mike Evans doesn't fare much better at 0.54%. Amusingly, his owners are doing even worse than Keenan Allen's (1.09%) who missed nine weeks of action
 

scottybo

code
Playing around with the analyzer, the highest survival rate for a player I found was Tyreek Hill with 7.62%. Hurts and Sun God are also above 7%, Davante not quite. Jeff Wilson, I believe, leads RBs with 6.33%. Kelce is at 5.70% (I'm pretty sure he was THE highest overall player before last week)

Lowest I could find, out of players with a reasonable amount of owners, was J.K. Dobbins with 0.20% which is literally ONE surviving team that has him. (and Dobbins is actually coming back, watch out!)

Out of players that have actually been healthy, Mike Evans doesn't fare much better at 0.54%. Amusingly, his owners are doing even worse than Keenan Allen's (1.09%) who missed nine weeks of action
Jameson Williams hasn't played at all and the rate is 1.87.

Josh Palmer pretty high at 6.72.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
The interesting development tonight means the 23 remaining Mayfield owners have to be totally jacked that



























they selected another QB or two.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
This game between the Raiders and Rams is an exact replay of the Monday night game 3 days ago between Tampa Bay and the New Orleans Saints, score and all!

Both games looked hopeless for the eventual winner until 6 minutes left in the game, and trailing 16-3. Both games featured a comeback with the trailing team winning 17-16 with single digit seconds left.

How crazy is that !! ??
 

bamabuddha

Footballguy
Crazy! and boring…. ;). Plus I think Mayfield is bad….and then I watched CARr absolutely stink it up…he is bad more than good this year
 

10tihwj

Footballguy
The interesting development tonight means the 23 remaining Mayfield owners have to be totally jacked that



























they selected another QB or two.
It’s me, hi.

I went REALLY cheap at QB with Rodgers and Baker. Somehow survived that combo and also having CMC and Chubb, with the former being traded and having them both unexpectedly on the same bye week.
 

scottybo

code
Not the start I was hoping for, but I guess I'll take it. Carr and Adams underwhelmed. Zamir at least went over his weekly average.

Knew it would be run-heavy for Raiders, but figured Adams could at least get 15 pts.
 

Bill Dauterive

Footballguy
The interesting development tonight means the 23 remaining Mayfield owners have to be totally jacked that



























they selected another QB or two.
It’s me, hi.

I went REALLY cheap at QB with Rodgers and Baker. Somehow survived that combo and also having CMC and Chubb, with the former being traded and having them both unexpectedly on the same bye week.
And me, hi. I went with Josh Allen and Mayfield, figuring Mayfield covers the bye week and maybe has a timely big week or two. Out of the starting position and didn't play Allen's bye, so that was a nice goose egg at QB. So it's been Allen for 12 of 13, and a 0. Hoping Allen can make it 13 of 14, but nice to have a non-zero backing up.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
I'll be very surprised if my (eliminated) team makes the cut for the Phantom Stangings this week.

This week, I am without:
A J DIllon
Courtland Sutton
Jahan Dotson
Dallas Goedert
Robert Tonyan
Arizona Defense
and Blankie (remember him??)

Plus....
Leonard Fournette is questionable,
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not shown up since week 7,
K J Osborne hasn't put up a double-digit score since week 3 ... (and that's his only one this season)
and Derek Carr laid an egg on Thursday night (5.95 points)

That probalby leaves me with 12 active players...

Good luck to everyone else in week 14...
 
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TheWinz

Footballguy
My EOY data for kickers and defenses is going to be fun. Currently, the top in each also happen to be the most expensive (Tyler Bass & DAL D, both at $7). Will they stay at the top throughout? And if they do, will they prove to be cost effective? Should be fun.
 

rzrback77

IBL Representative
My projected score using FBG consensus is 134.9.

Curious as to cut-line thoughts? Last week’s 145.1 was pretty high (highest week?) and this week has the highest scoring teams remaining, BUT last week had no team byes and this week includes six teams on bye.

My suspicion is that quite a few of the successful teams avoided the bye week 14 teams, but with even a few and you combine the number of late season injuries, there has to be quite a few teams lacking depth.

I mostly avoided this week’s bye teams, but will be missing eight players including E. Michell, Edmonds, Sutton, Dotson (bye), Hamler, Goedert, Okweugbenam & Rodrigo.
 

apalmer

Footballguy
I'll be very surprised if my (eliminated) team makes the cut for the Phantom Stangings this week.

This week, I am without:
A J DIllon
Courtland Sutton
Jahan Dotson
Dallas Goedert
Robert Tonyan
Arizona Defense
and Blankie (remember him??)

Plus....
Leonard Fournette is questionable,
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not shown up since week 7,
K J Osborne hasn't put up a double-digit score since week 3 ... (and that's his only one this season)
and Derek Carr laid an egg on Thursday night (5.95 points)

That probalby leaves me with 12 active players...

Good luck to everyone else in week 14...
Great news: AZ's bye was last week, so you're solid!
 

Puppies

Footballguy
I'll be very surprised if my (eliminated) team makes the cut for the Phantom Stangings this week.

This week, I am without:
A J DIllon
Courtland Sutton
Jahan Dotson
Dallas Goedert
Robert Tonyan
Arizona Defense
and Blankie (remember him??)

Plus....
Leonard Fournette is questionable,
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not shown up since week 7,
K J Osborne hasn't put up a double-digit score since week 3 ... (and that's his only one this season)
and Derek Carr laid an egg on Thursday night (5.95 points)

That probalby leaves me with 12 active players...

Good luck to everyone else in week 14...
Great news: AZ's bye was last week, so you're solid!
Ahhh... My mistake. Thanks for pointing it out.

I'm probably still screwed this week, however...
 

Puppies

Footballguy
is there any easy way to see how your team did after eliminated?
Yes, if you know your team name / number .

Any chance your team is MinnMitch... that was eliminated in week 7? I'm just guessing this might be you. If not, tell me your team name...

Thanks, no that's not me, was eliminated in week 12, #106496 is team,

Here you go.....

 

stubby

Footballguy
Are you bummed because your team's been eliminated early ? :wall:

.......... Are you wondering how you'd be doing if your team were still alive ? :ponder:

....................Well, wonder no more, because I've got you covered..... :pickle:

Presenting the Week 13
- 👻 Phantom Standings 👻 (Eliminated teams that would have made the cut in week 13)



177.00 - Chet
173.50 - Sigmund Bloom (FBG Staff)
171.80 - Dacomish
168.80 - Ackme
168.75 - The Stray Doug
166.70 - Puppies (me)
165.05 - Ruffroddys
161.80 - Stubby
159.45 - Fair Warning
156.95 - Baededel Moon
155.00 - Saint
152.90 - BroncosFan07
150.65 - davidwb
147.55 - Mister CIA Fan
146.55 - Maurile Tremblay (FBG Staff)
145.30 - Nittany Lion

145.10 ---- Week 13 Cut Line ------


Coming soon…… The Phantom Playoffs !

I will track our teams through upcoming playoffs (weeks 15-17) to show how we all would have fared had we survived and made the actual playoffs.
Someone in this group will have bragging rights (but no prizes) :-)


We love this contest so much that we keep playing EVEN after we're eliminated !!

@chet , @Dacomish ,@Ackme ,@Stray Doug , @Ruffrodys05 @stubby , @FairWarning , @Baeddel Moon ,
@Saint , @BroncosFan07 , @davidwb , @Mister CIA , @nittanylion
Tks @Puppies ! It’s nice to see the results even though it was booted a few weeks ago. Good luck to all the regulars still on the contest!
 

scottybo

code
The Turk has his scissors next to my line, ready to cut. I'll be lucky to break 120 this week. Not bad for my first try at this contest.

So far only 86.05 from my 6 players that have scores.

Still have a small chance, but don't have the big scores like others probably will.

Either Stevenson or Mostert will count or both if they go over 10.1.
Metcalf counts if he goes over 10.1
Kelce counts if he goes over 10.1 or 10.8 if Metcalf goes over 10.1.
All of Myers' points count
All of Cardinals D will count
 

wollac

Footballguy
131.95 after early games. Feeling a little nervous. To go:

Jeff Wilson (-6.9)
Cedrick Wilson (-13.4)
Josh Palmer (-13.4)
Gerald Everett (-13.4)
Arizona D (0)

I don't think I'll get any points from Cedrick Wilson. All the others have a chance to add to my score.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Talk about irony.....

My crappy, (eliminated) team is missing 8 players:
3 on bye,
4 with injuries,
Blanenkship out, period...

and have only 1 active TE

And in the 1pm games I got:
0 points on defense, and only
2 points from kickers...

And yet I'm sitting on 154.45 points , including 152.45 from only 7 players.
I might make the Phantom Standings this week afterall...
 

scottybo

code
113.15
Mostert or Stevenson counts. Both count if over 10.8.
All of AZ D counts.

Still out, but may actually surpass 120 easily.

If cut line is under 100, I may have a chance.
 
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