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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (6 Viewers)

sooted72 said:
every year right before the contest locks and im reviewing my rooster its like "omg i have so much te and wr value :hifive: "

then like halfway through week 1 it turns into "omg my season is relying on wandale robinson, george pickens, nico collins, brevin jordan and mo-alie cox :sick:"

seriously, and i mean it this time, this my last year with a rooster full of garbage value players. next year its an 18 man stud filled rooster or else i want you to kick me in the balls.

mods pls pin this to the 1st page of the 2023 thread.
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I hear ya. I went with a 19-player roster this year, and I feel like I will only get booted due to injury.
 
TheWinz said:
Albert O will move the line more than you'd think. He is the 3rd most common TE, and the 4 others in the top 5 are Goedert (10.5 pts), Pitts (4.9 pts), Kmet (0.0 pts), and Njoku (2.2 pts). Also, TE's 7-9 (Knox, Tonyan, and Alie-Cox) were all 8 and under.
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Not so sure about Albert O. I remember seeing FBG writers mentioning how DEN is insistent on using WRs, and AO hasn't separated from TE pack.
 
texhunter said:
TheWinz said:
Albert O will move the line more than you'd think. He is the 3rd most common TE, and the 4 others in the top 5 are Goedert (10.5 pts), Pitts (4.9 pts), Kmet (0.0 pts), and Njoku (2.2 pts). Also, TE's 7-9 (Knox, Tonyan, and Alie-Cox) were all 8 and under.
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Not so sure about Albert O. I remember seeing FBG writers mentioning how DEN is insistent on using WRs, and AO hasn't separated from TE pack.
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I'm not saying Albert O is going to be anything special this year - just that he doesn't have to score a ton to actually make a difference in the contest this week. FWIW, he has already tied Pitts.
 
I wonder if there is a way to bookmark this post. I want to say to my self don't be stupid. Do not spend 18 bucks on six 3 dollar WRs that will never crack your line up. Spend the 18 on one player who will actually score. Seems like I tell myself that every year and then forget. I guess I just have an acute case of CRS.
 
rustycolts said:
I wonder if there is a way to bookmark this post. I want to say to my self don't be stupid. Do not spend 18 bucks on six 3 dollar WRs that will never crack your line up. Spend the 18 on one player who will actually score. Seems like I tell myself that every year and then forget. I guess I just have an acute case of CRS.
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Best to have a mix. Get a stud or two, a few 2's-3's and then spend the low $$ on upside.
 
TheWinz said:
Deamon said:
haha I thought you enjoyed it! :P

Wonder if Dak and Elijah are on any teams
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I love playing with the analyzer. I just assumed you didn't know it existed or knew how to use it. FTR, the Dak & Eli combo are on 68 rosters.
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👋🏻 it was fun while it lasted. I don’t have to worry that I lost those two as I won’t even make it past this week. I didn’t follow my own advice and spent a bunch on a stack with Dak/Lamb which cost me. I really liked their late season schedule. Btw I am a giants fan and did both that and avoided picking Saquon to not jinx him. Oh well.

Good luck, see you in postseason contest 😆
 
sooted72 said:
every year right before the contest locks and im reviewing my rooster its like "omg i have so much te and wr value :hifive: "

then like halfway through week 1 it turns into "omg my season is relying on wandale robinson, george pickens, nico collins, brevin jordan and mo-alie cox :sick:"

seriously, and i mean it this time, this my last year with a rooster full of garbage value players. next year its an 18 man stud filled rooster or else i want you to kick me in the balls.

mods pls pin this to the 1st page of the 2023 thread.
Click to expand...
I went with the 18 carat stud roster this time around. May it shine bright like a diamond.
 
Does tail end Charlie with his 63 points and 11 QB stratergery get some sort of award? Or just the gratitude of the guy at 124.8?
 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Thursday said:
Trying to remember how much the MNF game moves the cut. Anyone remember the typical average? With the number of players in tonight's game that are heavily owned.... wondering if we'll see the cut move by 10-12 pts. I'm slightly above, but also have Javonte (-4.4) and Sutton (-8.8) so feeling a little nervous at the moment.
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I think you need heavy ownership to move the line...which is there for denver but notesomuch seattle. I'm going to guess the final cut is around 125-127.5. Be advised my guesses aren't worth jack.
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I'm better at predicting cut lines than picking players for a roster, apparently. Cutoff 125.05.

In a tribute to Bacardi, I scored 151.
 
90.03% advanced to week 2. Based on sheer numbers, this is a year for small rosters. The only teams to advance at a rate higher than 90.03% are those carrying 18-20 spots. All others are in the 80's, with the exception of the dreaded 29-man roster. They lost 23 folks, for a survival rate of 71.25%!
 
How the updated cut to line looks, for the contest although week 1 didn't change what week 2 would be projected to be:

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number - 9927
10% Week 3 cut to Number - 8935
20% Week 4 cut to Number - 7148
20% Week 5 cut to Number - 5719
20% Week 6 cut to Number - 4576
20% Week 7 cut to Number - 3661
30% Week 8 cut to Number - 2563
30% Week 9 cut to Number - 1795
30% Week 10 cut to Number - 1257
30% Week 11 cut to Number - 880
30% Week 12 cut to Number - 616
40% Week 13 cut to Number - 370
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 (this means the 3 highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
 
Sitting at 144, so moving on. The $3 Jeff Wilson buy may be gold. I need to call out my TEs of Andrews, Goedert, and Engram. Boys, you gotta put up more moving forward.
 
TheWinz said:
90.03% advanced to week 2. Based on sheer numbers, this is a year for small rosters. The only teams to advance at a rate higher than 90.03% are those carrying 18-20 spots. All others are in the 80's, with the exception of the dreaded 29-man roster. They lost 23 folks, for a survival rate of 71.25%!
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True so far... but I believe as the season marches on with injuries and then bye weeks, the survival rate for small roster teams will likely drop a bit. Injuries are the biggest wild card. If there were no injuries, the contest would be much easier to predict mathematically simply using good bye-week management. Then it would mostly depend on how realistic the pre-season projections were. Barring injuries, the value of bargain players evaporates because their playing time would depend solely on poor performance by the starters ahead of them rather than by an injury suddenly making them the starter.

At the far end of the extreme at 30 player rosters, I AM surprised that the survival rate was so low in week 1, though.
 
Joe Steeler has 9 players that I have including 5 kickers/Defenses. We both have Pierce, Kirk, Pickens and Doubs as well. He outscored me by .8 points.
 
Deamon said:
TheWinz said:
FYI - Rodrigo Blankenship has won the Colts kicking job, and they waived Jake Verity. I am guessing many will swap one of their $3 options for him now, preferably Cairo Santos if you had him.
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TheWinz said:
5675 - K Blankenship - 9.50
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Dammit why did I let you talk me into Blankenship! Gonna be a big loss for a lot of teams, especially anyone who only rostered 2 K.
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Bummer. I have him too. I avoided him through the preseason but when his job looked secure, I swapped for him a couple days prior to the deadline. It's not a done deal yet as far as I've heard, so maybe he'll surivve. Matthew Wright reportedly is not signing. Josh Lambo was money in the bank for several years here in Jacksonville, but he went into a funk where he could not be counted on to make anything, and finally they cut him. Will be interesting to see if Blankenship keeps his job. If anything has happened in that regard, I haven't see it yet.
 
I am shocked, absolutely shocked that this lineup was cut in week one. lol

QB Josh Allen - $2542.45
QB Justin Herbert - $2332.05
QB Patrick Mahomes - $2348.50
QB Kyler Murray - $2224.55
QB Tom Brady - $2115.50
QB Joe Burrow - $2129.60
QB Deshaun Watson - $200.00
QB Jalen Hurts - $1927.15
QB Lamar Jackson - $1929.35
QB Russell Wilson - $1823.20
QB Dak Prescott - $176.80
RB DeeJay Dallas - $30.00
RB Myles Gaskin - $30.00
WR Sammy Watkins - $44.80
WR Laviska Shenault - $30.00
TE Kyle Rudolph - $30.00
PK Greg Zuerlein - $34.50
TD Houston Texans - $36.00
TOTAL63.80
CUT LINE125.05
 
the thing thats the most annoying about the hot rod situation is that he shouldnt have been $3 to begin with. hes been basically a top 5 kicker on a ppg basis for his whole career. every time i looked at my lineup i thought 'why is this guy $3???' i honestly felt like he was the best buy on the entire board and other than pierce one of only two must haves in the whole contest.

but maybe the contest pricers know more than me lol. :frown:
 
Deamon said:
TheWinz said:
FYI - Rodrigo Blankenship has won the Colts kicking job, and they waived Jake Verity. I am guessing many will swap one of their $3 options for him now, preferably Cairo Santos if you had him.
Click to expand...

TheWinz said:
5675 - K Blankenship - 9.50
Click to expand...
Dammit why did I let you talk me into Blankenship! Gonna be a big loss for a lot of teams, especially anyone who only rostered 2 K.
Click to expand...
You mean like mine?
 
Its official:

Colts waived K Rodrigo Blankenship.​

Not only did he miss a 42-yard overtime field goal attempt against the Texans in Week 1, he also booted two different kickoffs out of bounds. The Colts worked out Josh Lambo and Matthew Wright today. Blankenship, 25, will join the kicker tryout circuit.
SOURCE: Tom Pelissero on Twitter

As said above - yet another reason to have a 3rd Kicker....
 
Dacomish said:
Its official:

Colts waived K Rodrigo Blankenship.​

Not only did he miss a 42-yard overtime field goal attempt against the Texans in Week 1, he also booted two different kickoffs out of bounds. The Colts worked out Josh Lambo and Matthew Wright today. Blankenship, 25, will join the kicker tryout circuit.
SOURCE: Tom Pelissero on Twitter

As said above - yet another reason to have a 3rd Kicker....
Click to expand...
:cry:
 
sooted72 said:
the thing thats the most annoying about the hot rod situation is that he shouldnt have been $3 to begin with. hes been basically a top 5 kicker on a ppg basis for his whole career. every time i looked at my lineup i thought 'why is this guy $3???' i honestly felt like he was the best buy on the entire board and other than pierce one of only two must haves in the whole contest.

but maybe the contest pricers know more than me lol. :frown:
Click to expand...
Who are you talking about?
 
I am the king of carrying 3 cheap kickers... but went risky with only 2 cheapies this year. Now I just gotta hope Seibert keeps his job, and maybe Rodrigo can latch on elsewhere.
 
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